ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NYZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/20/08 1225Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1215Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...NEW YORK...
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ATTN WFOS...BGM...BUF...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER N CAYUGA/S OSWEGO
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND THAT EXTENDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND EXTENDS INTO S OSWEGO/N
CAYUGA COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING THIS MORNING PER RECENT
CLOUD TOP COOLING.  STRENGTHENING LAKE BAND APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING TROF AXIS TO AID IN RAISING LOW LEVEL INVERSION.  IN ADDITION,
GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND VWPS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN A
DECREASE IN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AID SNOW BAND.
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EXPLOSIVE CLOUD TOP COOLING TO NEAR -34C JUST NW OF FZY, SUGGESTS THAT
LAKE BAND CIRCULATION IS OVERSHOOTING AMBIENT INVERSION BY ABOUT 300-500M
PER MOST RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT DEPTH OF
CIRCULATION PROBABLY RUNNING AT LEAST 4KM WHICH SUGGESTS SNOWFALL RATES
LIKELY RUNNING BETWEEN 2-3"/HR DOWNWIND OF RAPID COOLING NEAR THE VIC
OF FZY.
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UPSTREAM GOES WIND VECTORS SUGGEST THAT SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER S OSWEGO/N CAYUGA FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM.  FARTHER UPSTREAM
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE NWARD COMPONENT WHICH
COULD MEAN BAND MAY TRY TO SINK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THEN THOUGH, WOULD THINK
THAT LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER S OSWEGO/N
CAYUGA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 HRS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4376 7709 4368 7630 4349 7581 4315 7552 4298 7552 4290
7579 4318 7675 4344 7758 4354 7779 4372 7789 4376 7734
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