ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/05/07 0557Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1545Z  AMSU THRU 0444Z GG
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
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EVENT...KONA LOW
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV LOOP SHOWS KONA LOW MATURING QUITE
WELL AS HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE CONVEYOR BELT IS BEING WRAPPED ALONG THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AS IT SLOWLY DROPS A HAIR WEST OF DUE
SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY SATELLITE DERIVED JET WINDS OF 50-60KTS ARE ESTIMATED
ACROSS SW OF THE ISLANDS AS THE FLOW BECOMES VERY DIFFLUENT FROM OAHU
THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND LEADING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  AS SUCH A LARGE
SHIELD OF COLD TOPS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SE SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND
BRINGING MODERATE RAINS THAT COULD BE ESTIMATED IN THE .5-1.0"/HR RANGE
PER AMSU PASS...THOUGH STRONGER COLDER TOPS WITH THUNDERSTORMS (-75C
OR LESS) HAVE RATES AS HIGH AS 1.4"...WHICH IS EXTREME CONSIDERING THE
LARGE AREAL FOOTPRINT OF THE SENSOR. THE CLOSEST OF WHICH IS JUST OFF
THE EASTERN TIP OF THE ISLAND.

FURTHER WEST (OAHU...MOLAKI/LANAI)... THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS OAHU AT THIS TIME WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION
ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE THAT BISECTS THE ISLAND AND IS ADVANCING TOWARD
THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND EVENTUALLY MOLOKAI.  WV LOOP SHOWED A LOBE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD SWUNG THROUGH KAUAI AND AIDED UPPER LEVEL
COOLING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS VORT ADV FOR ADDED UVV ALONG
WITH THE BROAD SCALE ASCENT FROM THE DIFFLUNECE.    ADDITIONALLY THIS
HAS LEAD TO PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NW SO GOOD ISALLOBARIC TURNING ACROSS
LANAI/MOLOKAI/MAUI HAS LEAD TO SELY FLOW THAT IS PUMPING IN HIGH MOISTURE
(PWS ARE 1.75-2.0" PER AMSU PASS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND).  SO THE SELY FLOW
IMPACTING ON THE ADVANCING CONVERGENCE BAND IS LEADING TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BAND ACROSS OAHU WHICH WILL HAVE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
FLUX FOR RATES AROUND 2"/HR.  OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF A
CLUSTER OF COLD TOPPED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE BAND CURRENTLY JUST WEST
OF LANAI MOVING NNW TOWARD THE BAND...WHERE MERGING COULD ADD ADDITIONAL
FF THREAT FOR E OAHU AND EVENTUALLY MOLOKAI AND LANAI.

PLEASE SEE GRAPHIC AT WEB ADDRESS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2280 15813 2009 15412 1804 15479 2052 15914
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