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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/10/07 2255Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2245Z  JS
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LOCATION...SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
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ATTN WFOS...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MERGING CELLS AND SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN THREAT UPCOMING NEAR
MIDLAND TX. ALSO MONITORING OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS SE NM/SW TX FOR
ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN
SUBTROPICAL FLOW IGNITED CONVECTION NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER AROUND
LEA(NM)/WINKLER(TX)/ANDREWS(TX) COUNTIES WHICH HAS MOVED MAINLY EASTWARD
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY. THE 2245Z IMAGE
REALLY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING
OVER ECTOR COUNTY. WHILE THIS WAS OCCURRING THE WESTERN PORTION OF
OUTFLOW GENERATED BY LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENT TX APPEARS TO BE
INTERSECTING AFORMENTIONED SW TX ACTIVITY. THE RESULTING CELL MERGERS
APPEAR SET TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF MIDLAND COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. MOISTURE PROFILES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND GOES SOUNDER
PW VALUES NEAR 1.75" SUPPORT SATELLITE BASED ESTIMATED RAIN RATES IN THE
1.50"-1.75"/HR RANGE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER RATES POSSIBLY UP TO 2"/HR
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR CELL MERGERS. ALSO MONITORING SECONDARY OUTFLOW
SURGE/COLD FRONT MOVING VERY RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS E CENT NM/W CENT TX
WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SE NM/SW TX REGION IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS SITUATION TO SEE IF THIS ALSO INTERACTS WITH RESIDUAL
CONVECTION/OLD BOUNDARIES ACROSS SE NM/SW TX TO CAUSE ACTIVITY TO FLARE UP
AGAIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF SE NM/SW TX TO BE EMBEDDED
IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM WHICH CAN
BE A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR ENHANCING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. ONE NEGATIVE
FACTOR THOUGH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE FACT THAT THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
SURGE OVER E NM/W TX IS MOVING SO QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH THAT IT MIGHT ACT
TO SWEEP EVERYTHING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BEFORE ANYTHING
CAN REALLY GET ORGANIZED.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3328 10405 3158 10112 2967 10310 3184 10581
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