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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/08/07 1005Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0945Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...S MISSOURI...NW ARKANSAS...C TO N OKLAHOMA...EXT SE KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OKLAHOMA TO S MISSOURI...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE SHOWED PW MAX AREA ACROSS
C OKLAHOMA THRU ARKANSAS WITH STALLED BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE JUST SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF HIGHEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST RAIN RATES FALLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THAT ACROSS W CENTRAL TO N CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THRU
NE OK...EXT NW AR/EXT SE KS THRU SW MO TO S CENTRAL MO.  EXACT PLACEMENT
OF MAX 24HR AMOUNT WILL BE DIFFICULT BU WON'T BE TOO FAR FROM THIS
BOUNDARY AND JUST NORTH IN BEST OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY.  IF THE WAVE IS
A BIT STRONGER IN N CENTRAL TO NW OK...HIGHEST AMOUNTS COULD FALL SE
KS/FAR NE OK INTO SW MO...MORE SUBTLE WAVE OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS COULD BE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  IN ANY CASE TRAINING CELLS TO BE A PROBLEM IN NARROW
ZONE NEXT FEW HRS FROM W CENTRAL OK VIC OF ROGER MILLS COUNTY ENE
THRU BLAINE/MAJOR COUNTY.  FROM HERE TRAINING AND REPEAT HVY RAIN BURSTS
TO BE A PROBLEM NEXT 6HRS AND THRU MOST OF THE MORNING N CENTRAL TO NE
OK CENTERED FROM GARFIELD TO OSAGE AND NOWATA-ROGERS AND INCREASINGLY
TRAINING IN A FEW HRS THRU MORNING AND MIDDAY FAR NE OK.
ACTIVITY IN SW MO...MAKES THIS AREA VULNERABLE TO ROUNDS OF HVY RAIN
BURST AND EVEN THOUGH GFS MODEL HAS HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST SOUTH FOR THE
NEXT 24HRS...MAY BE QUITE RIGHT IN AMOUNTS AND JUST SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH
WOULD PUT THAT HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SW MO WHERE I BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF PROBLEMS THRU MOST OF TODAY.  ALSO QUITE CONCERNED THAT
SW MO HVY RAIN WILL SPILL INTO S CENTRAL PART OF MO AND INCR FF THREAT
THERE FOR A WIDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING THRU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SEE LATEST BLENDED TOTAL WATER VAPOR LOOP FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DETAILS
AT: HTTP://AMSU.CIRA.COLOSTATE.EDU/GPSTPW ALL LOWER CASE.
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HYDROESTIMATOR RAIN ESTIMATES THRU 0915Z...3HR AMOUNT MAX...3.3 TO 3.8
INCHES IN GARFIELD AND 3.0 TO 3.5 INCHES ALONG DEWEY-CUSTER BORDER AREA.
AND 6HR MAX AMOUNTS 6.0 INCHES IN DEWEY COUNTY...SEE GRAPHICAL PRODUCT
OF ESTIMATES ON HOME PAGE ADDRESS BELOW.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3758 9268 3645 9251 3605 9571 3595 9820 3617 9967 3683
9652
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