ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/27/07 1950Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1945Z
.
LOCATION...MINNESOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...
.
ATTN WFOS...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
.
EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AFTERNOON VISIBLE/IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN WSW TO ENE ORIENTED
BAND FROM THE VIC OF 40 MILES S OF BIS TO ABOUT 10 MILES N OF FSE.
CONVECTIVE LINE HAS ONLY BEEN MAKING A SLOW EWARD PROGRESS OVER THE LAST
2-3HRS AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR AT LEAST PERIODS OF TRAINING CONVECTION
FROM ROUGHLY E SIOUX COUNTY TO N BARNES COUNTY WITH AUTOMATED SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF LOCALLY 2".
.
DIVERGENT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET OVER S CANADA HELPING
TO INDUCE EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER REGION AS BEST DEPICTED ON 310K
THETA SURFACE.  IN ADDITION, WEAK IMPULSES LIFTING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC DESTABILIZATION.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE IMPULSES IS THE FEATURE NOW JUST UPWIND OF
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE ON WV IMAGERY OVER W SD AND ALSO WITH STRONGER
UPWIND FEATURE OVER SW UT.
.
BELIEVE THAT SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OVER REGION WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER S BC/ALBERTA TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS FOR SUFFICIENT EWARD MOVEMENT.  THUS, BELIEVE PERIODS OF
TRAINING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-6HRS FROM
SE ND THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA.  TD'S OF 70F AND NEARLY
20C, AT THE SURFACE AND 85H, RESPECTIVELY, SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE CORES.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4872 9418 4863 9022 4775 9119 4635 9260 4528 9373 4543
9562 4573 9774 4567 10035 4633 10170 4761 9808
.
NNNN