ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/29/07 1217Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1145Z
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LOCATION...S TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...HVY RAIN FROM NEARLY STNRY CLUSTER
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CLUSTER OF CELLS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
AND IS STILL ANCHORED ALONG THE FRIO/MEDINA COUNTY BORDER WHERE A
OVERSHOOTING TOP IS LIKELY PRESENT PER IR IMAGERY. NEW WARMER TOPPED
CELLS HAVE FORMED TO THE S OF THE CLUSTER AND ARE MOVING N/NNW AND
WILL LIKELY CAUSE MERGERS IN NRN FRIO COUNTY AND NE ZAVALA COUNTY. IR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A PART OF THE CLUSTER IS ANCHORED IN CENTRAL UVALDE
COUNTY AND APPEARS TO BE SPREADING NWWD TWDS THE SLOW MOVING WEDGE
SHAPED CLUSTER IN EDWARDS/N KINNEY COUNTIES MAKING IT LOOK VERY LIKELY
THAT A MERGER WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER SE EDWARDS/NE KINNEY/NW UVALDE IN
THE NEXT 15-30 MIN. S/WV ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS W TX IS
NOT A GOOD SIGN AS IT COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS DURING
THE MORNING HRS BUT IT COULD ALSO HELP TO PUSH TO CELLS OUT OF THEIR
ANCHORED POSITIONS. IN ADDITION TO PREVIOUS ESTIMATES OF MAX RAINFALL
OF 8.0-8.5" THROUGH 1045Z..MANUEL STLT ESTIMATES YIELD ANOTHER 1.4-1.6"
IN HR ENDING 1145Z ALONG THE FRIO/MEDINA COUNTY BORDER. WITH SEVERAL
MERGERS OCCURRING HERE..RAIN RATES LIKELY WILL APPROACH 2-2.5"/30 MIN
PERIOD. SEE WEB ADDRESS FOR GRAPHIC IN ABUOT 10 MIN.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3089 10082 2996 9859 2850 9869 2842 9960 2928 10129
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