[top]
000
FXUS66 KPDT 082233 CCA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
233 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
CORRECTED TYPO IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. CLEARING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO
TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDOWN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALONG
THE CASCADES...SHOWERS ARE JUST CROSSING THE CREST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE ENTIRE AREA HAVING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 5000 FEET TONIGHT SO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH WITH UP TO TWO TENTHS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE HEAVY
CLOUD COVER COMING IN AND THE RAIN SHOWERS...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE BEEN ALLOWING
FOG FORMATION IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT. CURRENT SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MIX OUT THE
INVERSION. SO HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE SAME PLACES THAT HAD IT
THIS MORNING.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND EXPAND SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL PUT US IN TRAILING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AND WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
RAIN SHADOWED BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. TEMPERATURES ARE
A BIT TRICKY SUNDAY AS FOG IN THE BASIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
50 BUT IF IT CLEARS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
OPERATED UNDER THE THEORY THAT FOG WILL CLEAR DURING THE MORNING AND
WARMED TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
COOL 6 TO 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
FEW DEGREES FROM TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND
4000 FEET. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY FOR A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE CASCADE CREST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. PERRY
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
BE POINTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WHICH WILL TAPER OFF TO
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CASCADE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GET GOOD RAIN NEAR THE CREST BUT
EXPECT SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO THE BASIN. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVELS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG. SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP STIR UP THE LOW
CLOUDS BUT ALSO PRODUCE MORE RAIN INTO THE ALREADY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR KRDM WHERE EXPECTING VFR TO PERSIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 42 55 38 51 / 70 30 20 20
ALW 43 56 40 52 / 70 40 20 20
PSC 41 57 38 54 / 50 20 20 20
YKM 38 55 36 50 / 60 20 20 20
HRI 41 57 36 53 / 60 20 20 20
ELN 39 53 35 49 / 60 20 20 20
RDM 35 50 29 47 / 70 50 20 20
LGD 41 49 34 48 / 70 50 30 30
GCD 39 51 34 48 / 70 40 20 20
DLS 45 55 41 52 / 70 40 20 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
83/91/91
000
FXUS66 KPDT 082230
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. CLEARING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO
TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDOWN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALONG
THE CASCADES...SHOWERS ARE JUST CROSSING THE CREST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE ENTIRE AREA HAVING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 5000 FEET TONIGHT SO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH WITH UP TO TWO TENTHS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE HEAVY
CLOUD COVER COMING IN AND THE RAIN SHOWERS...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE BEEN ALLOWING
FOG FORMATION IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT. CURRENT SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MIX OUT THE
INVERSION. SO HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE SAME PLACES THAT HAD IT
THIS MORNING.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND EXPAND SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL PUT US IN TRAILING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AND WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLUMBIA BASIN RAINSHADOWED BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY SUNDAY AS FOG IN THE BASIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 BUT OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. OPERATED UNDER THE THEORY THAT FOG WILL CLEAR DURING
THE MORNING AND WARMED TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 6 TO 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
TO AROUND 4000 FEET. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE CASCADE CREST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. PERRY
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
BE POINTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WHICH WILL TAPER OFF TO
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CASCADE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GET GOOD RAIN NEAR THE CREST BUT
EXPECT SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO THE BASIN. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVELS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG. SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP STIR UP THE LOW
CLOUDS BUT ALSO PRODUCE MORE RAIN INTO THE ALREADY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR KRDM WHERE EXPECTING VFR TO PERSIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 42 55 38 51 / 70 30 20 20
ALW 43 56 40 52 / 70 40 20 20
PSC 41 57 38 54 / 50 20 20 20
YKM 38 55 36 50 / 60 20 20 20
HRI 41 57 36 53 / 60 20 20 20
ELN 39 53 35 49 / 60 20 20 20
RDM 35 50 29 47 / 70 50 20 20
LGD 41 49 34 48 / 70 50 30 30
GCD 39 51 34 48 / 70 40 20 20
DLS 45 55 41 52 / 70 40 20 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
83/91/91
[top]
000
FXUS66 KPQR 082227
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 PM PST SAT NOV 08 2008
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OFF
THE PACIFIC TONIGHT...AND EAST OF THE CASCADES SUN. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK SUN NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MON. A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...PRE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OVER
CASCADES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT. AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODELS NOT QUITE AS COOL
WITH POST FRONTAL AIR MASS AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW LEVELS TO PASS LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT.
TROUGH AXIS TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...COUPLED WITH
MODEST OROGPRAPHIC LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW...IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES. QPF EXPECTATIONS
ARE MARGINAL...SO FOR NOW PLAN ON KEEPING A LOW END SNOW ADVISORY
TONIGHT AND SUN FOR THE OREGON PART OF THE CASCADES.
A WEAK RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SUN NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A LULL
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE AGREEING ON
DETAILS WITH THE WEAK WAVE AND WARM FRONT APPROACHING MON. FOR NOW
WILL STICK WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...AND KEEP POPS IN THE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOWER LIKELY RANGE.
TUE SEES THE BEGINNING OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT. GOOD
MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORT KEEPING POPS LIKELY FOR
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...AS WITH EARLIER FORECASTS...PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG WESTERLY JET DEVELOPS. 500MB
MODEL HEIGHTS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...WHILE
WESTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PROVIDE LIFT TO KEEP POPS ON THE
HIGH SIDE. LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS BUILDING A
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SO WILL BACK OFF SOME ON POPS IN
THE FRI TO SAT TIME FRAME AND CONTINUE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SUN. AN AREA OF MORE INTENSE SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO
SW OREGON WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. COLDER
AIR ALOFT IS FLOODING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING CEILINGS LOWER WHILE
KEEPING SHOWERS GOING. INLAND EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH AREA MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS DUE TO SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE COAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE
TO THE HIGHER END OF IFR OR LOWER END OF MVFR OVERNIGHT...THINGS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON SUN AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...INCREASING
AREAS MVFR CIGS DUE TO SHOWERS...SOME HEAVIER AT TIMES THROUGH THE
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD SAG DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR MASS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SOME RISK IFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. SUN SHOULD SEE REBOUND TO VFR AFTER AN
MVFR MORNING...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR SUN...BUT SHOULD
BE INCREASINGLY INFREQUENT.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 4 PM SUN AFTERNOON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW N AND CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADES TONIGHT AND SUN.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
000
FXUS65 KBOI 082200
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
300 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POWERFUL AND COMPLEX SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US TODAY WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH...SO
OUR QPF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN. HOWEVER...MOST
EVERYONE WILL SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH..ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH...BUT BECAUSE OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...ITS PASSAGE
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT NOTICEABLE. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT REALLY
INCREASE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY..WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MINIMAL.
ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN HIGH EVEN AS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAINS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE REGION RIGHT BEHIND IT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANYTHING FROM THIS WEAK SECOND SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEW
WEEK IS THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVEL WILL QUICKLY RISE TO
8-9000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT RAIN AS PRECIP WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCH. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST...
THIS FOCUSES THE FLOW INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEING REPORTED ACROSS EAST TO
NORTHEAST OREGON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT
REMAINS CONSISTENT. PUSHING THROUGH KBNO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN THROUGH KMYL AND KBOI THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS
AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH...SO
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....CR/DD
AVIATION.....CR
[top]
000
FXUS66 KMFR 082128
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
130 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...A COLD CORE LOW IS BRINGING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ABOUT 5000 FEET
LOWERING TO NEAR 3500 FEET LATE TONIGHT. SUNDAY THE SHOWERS SLOWLY
TAPER OFF AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY INTRUDES WITH THE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOGS
AND LOW CLOUDS.
MONDAY A WEAK SHORT WAVE BRINGS A BIT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING IN
LIGHT RAIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN MORE
VALLEY FOGS. TUESDAY A 130 KNOT JET CAUSES A STRONG UP TICK IN
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 5000 FEET AND RISING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE GFS NOW SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 588DM. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION...THE COLD LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR ORZ027-ORZ028.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM
PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-
PZZ370-PZZ376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
$$
11
000
FXUS66 KPDT 081752
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. RECORDING STATIONS ARE REPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND SKIES HAVE GONE PARTLY CLOUDY THERE. THIS
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING AND THIS WILL
HELP SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACTIVITY BUT A FEW CELLS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES APPEAR PROBABLE. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...LOWER ADJACENT VALLEYS...WALLOWA COUNTY AND ALONG THE I-82
CORRIDOR IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE HEAVIEST FOG IS IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WHERE PENDLETON AND WALLA WALLA REMAIN AT ONE
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY. EXPECT THAT FOG WILL LIFT IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT COULD LINGER ON THROUGH THE DAY IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THIS MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECASTING DIFFICULT. IF
THE FOG CONTINUES ALL DAY AS IT DID YESTERDAY IN WALLA
WALLA...TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S. IF IT
CLEARS OUT WHILE THE DRY SLOT IS MOVING THROUGH...IT MIGHT REACH 60.
CURRENT FORECAST IS GEARED TOWARDS CLEARING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WILL WATCH THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND LIKELY UPDATE ONCE THE FATE OF
THE FOG IS CLEARER. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL
UPDATE TO SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE DRY SLOT THIS MORNING
AND TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO WALLOWA COUNTY. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. PERRY
&&
AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE COLUMBIA
BASIN THIS MORNING AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY ERODE AWAY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS MAINLY AROUND THE COLUMBIA
BASIN TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ON THE
RADAR...BUT REPORTS ON THE GROUND SHOW LIMITED AMOUNTS EXCEPT NEAR
THE CASCADES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A NARROW DRY SLOT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST. THE DRY SLOT SHOT
IS NARROWING AS CONVECTION INCREASES THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DETECTED
BY THE SATELLITE. MADE 3 HR POP FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 7000-8000 FEET THIS
MORNING...SO MOST AREAS WILL HAVE ALL RAIN. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND INCREASE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE
WESTERLY WITH THESE WAVES SO THERE WILL BE RAIN SHADOWING IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND DESCHUTES PLATEAU. SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE TO
4000-5500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING...AND DOWN TO 2500-4000 FEET MONDAY
MORNING. COONFIELD
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. AS A RESULT
CAN EXPECT A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH IMBEDDED DISTURBANCES FOR OFF
AND ON RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE DIURNALLY...BUT WILL
GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 3000-5000 FEET EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN
GRADUALLY RISE. THE DISTURBANCES MAY CAUSE THE MEAN STORM TRACK TO
SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH AS THEY PASS...BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE TRACK
THIS FAR OUT IS UNCERTAIN AND A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST OF MOSTLY
CHANCE POPS IS PREFERRED. WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT BREEZIER BY MID
WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW AND THIS WOULD ELIMINATE THE
CHANCES OF COLUMBIA BASIN FOG. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 55 42 54 39 / 60 70 30 20
ALW 57 42 57 40 / 60 70 40 20
PSC 56 39 58 38 / 60 50 20 20
YKM 55 36 55 38 / 40 60 20 20
HRI 58 39 57 37 / 60 60 20 20
ELN 50 35 51 35 / 50 60 20 20
RDM 56 33 49 28 / 40 70 50 20
LGD 56 41 48 32 / 50 70 50 30
GCD 58 39 52 33 / 50 70 40 30
DLS 58 43 54 42 / 50 70 40 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
83/90/90
000
FXUS66 KPQR 081706
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
904 AM PST SAT NOV 08 2008
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THAT WILL BRING A MIX OF WEATHER WITH IT INCLUDING
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING DOWN TO THE HIGHER PASSES. RATHER WET
AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE LIKELY NEAR THEIR PEAK THIS
MORNING AS POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHES COAST. MODELS
INDICATE THE PARENT SURFACE LOW FILLING THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE S BC COAST. WILL ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE S
WA AND N OR COAST TO RUN ITS COURSE.
SATELLITE SHOWS BAND OF BEST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION PUSHING INLAND
OVER ACROSS THE COAST RANGE THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO BE WELL
DEPICTED BY GFS. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATER TODAY AS COOLER
AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN IN THE
EVENING.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COMES INLAND THIS EVENING AND IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING DOWN TO THE HIGHER PASSES. LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES
AND THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE UP NEAR THE SKI RESORTS.
WILLSON
&&
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NOT
MUCH CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST
REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURN SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND RISK OF
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE WX AND EVEN TSTMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. AT THE COAST EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RISK OF IFR
CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...AS FLOW TURNS W TO NW LATER THIS EVENING
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP IN COLDER AIR MASS. INLAND EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...CIGS WILL SETTLE TO GENERALLY MVFR AFTER NIGHTFALL
AS AIR MASS COOLS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTY SE WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BAND CROSSES THE AREA.
SOME RISK MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TSTM NOW THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. CIGS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE LOWER END OF MVFR DURING THE
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR GALES TO SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
SPEEDS AROUND MIDDAY LOOKS ON TRACK. PRES GRADIENTS NEAR THEIR PEAK
NOW WILL SLACKEN AS SURFACE LOW JUST W OF WA COASTAL WATERS MOVES
NNE AND WEAKENS. HOWEVER...UNSTABLE AIR MASS COULD CONTINUE TO HELP
SURFACE THE STRONGER GUSTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
A LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...FLOW WILL TURN MORE NWLY AND
CONTINUE THE SCA TYPE WINDS THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE HAZARD THRESHOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A BRIEF
DECREASING TREND BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING MON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TUE WITH SOUTHERLY GALES POSSIBLE. ACTIVE FALL
PATTERN OF SYSTEM AFTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS LIVELY FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. DK2
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE UNTIL MIDDAY
TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM FOR THE N OREGON AND S WA
COAST.
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND THE LANE
904 AM PST SAT NOV 08 2008
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KMFR 081649
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...A COLD NOW ROUGHLY ALONG THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE
EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO NEVADA BY EVENING.
THE COLD CORE LOW WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
INITIALLY ABOUT 5000 FEET LOWERING TO NEAR 3500 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THE SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY
INTRUDES WITH THE AXIS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOGS AND LOW CLOUDS.
MONDAY A WEAK SHORT WAVE BRINGS A BIT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING IN
LIGHT RAIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN MORE
VALLEY FOGS. TUESDAY A 130 KNOT JET CAUSES A STRONG UP TICK IN
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 5000 FEET AND RISING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE GFS NOW SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 588DM. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY IFR WILL LIFT AS COLD LOW MOVES OUR OUR AREA
TODAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR ORZ027-ORZ028.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM
PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-
PZZ370-PZZ376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
$$
11
000
FXUS66 KPDT 081646
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
847 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. RECORDING STATIONS ARE REPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND SKIES HAVE GONE PARTLY CLOUDY THERE. THIS
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING AND THIS WILL
HELP SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACTIVITY BUT A FEW CELLS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES APPEAR PROBABLE. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...LOWER ADJACENT VALLEYS...WALLOWA COUNTY AND ALONG THE I-82
CORRIDOR IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE HEAVIEST FOG IS IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WHERE PENDLETON AND WALLA WALLA REMAIN AT ONE
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY. EXPECT THAT FOG WILL LIFT IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT COULD LINGER ON THROUGH THE DAY IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THIS MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECASTING DIFFICULT. IF
THE FOG CONTINUES ALL DAY AS IT DID YESTERDAY IN WALLA
WALLA...TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S. IF IT
CLEARS OUT WHILE THE DRY SLOT IS MOVING THROUGH...IT MIGHT REACH 60.
CURRENT FORECAST IS GEARED TOWARDS CLEARING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WILL WATCH THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND LIKELY UPDATE ONCE THE FATE OF
THE FOG IS CLEARER. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL
UPDATE TO SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE DRY SLOT THIS MORNING
AND TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO WALLOWA COUNTY. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ON THE
RADAR...BUT REPORTS ON THE GROUND SHOW LIMITED AMOUNTS EXCEPT NEAR
THE CASCADES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A NARROW DRY SLOT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST. THE DRY SLOT SHOT
IS NARROWING AS CONVECTION INCREASES THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DETECTED
BY THE SATELLITE. MADE 3 HR POP FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 7000-8000 FEET THIS
MORNING...SO MOST AREAS WILL HAVE ALL RAIN. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND INCREASE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE
WESTERLY WITH THESE WAVES SO THERE WILL BE RAIN SHADOWING IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND DESCHUTES PLATEAU. SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE TO
4000-5500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING...AND DOWN TO 2500-4000 FEET MONDAY
MORNING. COONFIELD
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. AS A RESULT
CAN EXPECT A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH IMBEDDED DISTURBANCES FOR OFF
AND ON RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE DIURNALLY...BUT WILL
GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 3000-5000 FEET EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN
GRADUALLY RISE. THE DISTURBANCES MAY CAUSE THE MEAN STORM TRACK TO
SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH AS THEY PASS...BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE TRACK
THIS FAR OUT IS UNCERTAIN AND A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST OF MOSTLY
CHANCE POPS IS PREFERRED. WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT BREEZIER BY MID
WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW AND THIS WOULD ELIMINATE THE
CHANCES OF COLUMBIA BASIN FOG. 90
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
AT MOST TAF SITES. CIGS/VIS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH KALW MAY NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS WAS THE CASE ON FRIDAY. IF SOME
SOUTH WIND CAN MIX DOWN AT KPDT THIS LOCATION MAY BREAK OUT...BUT
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC FOR THE MORNING ISSUANCE. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO HELP TO EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
KEEP KRDM VFR. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 55 42 54 39 / 60 70 30 20
ALW 57 42 57 40 / 60 70 40 20
PSC 56 39 58 38 / 60 50 20 20
YKM 55 36 55 38 / 40 60 20 20
HRI 58 39 57 37 / 60 60 20 20
ELN 50 35 51 35 / 50 60 20 20
RDM 56 33 49 28 / 40 70 50 20
LGD 56 41 48 32 / 50 70 50 30
GCD 58 39 52 33 / 50 70 40 30
DLS 58 43 54 42 / 50 70 40 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
83/90/90
000
FXUS65 KBOI 081636
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW
TODAY. THIS WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
STRONG JET MAX IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT THIS TIME AND
THIS WILL DRIVE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT...OUR
AREA WILL BE IN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE GOOD DYNAMICS...AND
OUR FORECAST IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS IT WOULD OTHERWISE BE. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS MORNING TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS A FEW OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR KONO. VIS IS BEGINNING TO COME
UP OVER THE LAST HOUR AND EXPECT THESE AREAS SHOULD BE FOG FREE
BETWEEN 17-18Z. RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH
TODAY DECREASING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OREGON TNGT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL DEALING WITH PATCHY FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG REPORTED IN BURNS AND
MCCALL...AND SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY. ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS MORNING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME WEAK RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WAS ENTERING THE
PACNW AT THIS TIME. NORTHERN PART OF THE STORM WILL STAY NORTH WHILE
JET STREAM REINVIGORATES THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPS A
MID/UPPER LOW WHICH TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE QPF
AMOUNTS...WITH MODELS SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF QPF.
DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES WENT WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN AT ABOVE
7000 FEET FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW TOTALS.
CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. ALONG
WITH THE SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
IT...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PREFERRED THE MORE ROBUST
NAM12 WINDS WITH THE FRONT VS THE WEAKER GFS...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
SIGNIFICANT.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY. GFS INDICATES A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT
TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MOIST PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS HINTING AT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FORMING BY SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN POPS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY DUE TO THE OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....CR
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SL
000
FXUS66 KMFR 081131
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
331 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST HAS SENT A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE FAIRLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT...A
FEW HUNDREDTHS SO FAR AT THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE
MOUNTAINS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
REACH THE CASCADES BY ABOUT 21Z WITH SOME SPILLING OVER INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE BRIEF
SHOWERS THAT ARRIVES WITH THE WEAK IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING...
LOOKS LIKE MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.
HAVE AUGMENTED THE SNOW ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE TO INCLUDE ZONE
80 AND TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLING TEMPS ALOFT.
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS WITH THIS THROUGH MID
EVE. PRECIP WITH STAY CONFINED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP SOME PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR
MAINLY THE WEST SIDE MONDAY.
THEN AN IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TAP FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON WITH A FAST ONSHORE JET TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GFS AND EC SHOW MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIP ONSET AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. WILL NEED TO WATCH SNOW
LEVELS HERE...THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD CASCADES AND
EAST. LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW OR
STRADDLING THE ZERO LINE. THE GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE A PRECIP PATTERN SIMILAR TO LAST WEDNESDAY WHEN IT WAS
PRETTY SOGGY...AND WHITE. EC MODEL KEEPS THE LIONS SHARE NORTH.
MTS
&&
.AVIATION...INLAND...PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AROUND THE REGION WITH MAINLY VFR WEATHER. CONDITIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES TO DETERIORATE LATE MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON WITH MTNS BECOMING OBSCD AND WDSPRD RAIN AND MTN SNOW
DVLPG. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY 21Z-03Z. AT THE
COAST...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WEATHER IN RAIN TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR ORZ027-ORZ028.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM
PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-
PZZ370-PZZ376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
$$
STAVISH
000
FXUS66 KPDT 081100
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ON THE
RADAR...BUT REPORTS ON THE GROUND SHOW LIMITED AMOUNTS EXCEPT NEAR
THE CASCADES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A NARROW DRY SLOT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST. THE DRY SLOT SHOT
IS NARROWING AS CONVECTION INCREASES THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DETECTED
BY THE SATELLITE. MADE 3 HR POP FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 7000-8000 FEET THIS
MORNING...SO MOST AREAS WILL HAVE ALL RAIN. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND INCREASE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE
WESTERLY WITH THESE WAVES SO THERE WILL BE RAIN SHADOWING IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND DESCHUTES PLATEAU. SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE TO
4000-5500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING...AND DOWN TO 2500-4000 FEET MONDAY
MORNING. COONFIELD
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. AS A RESULT
CAN EXPECT A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH IMBEDDED DISTURBANCES FOR OFF
AND ON RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE DIURNALLY...BUT WILL
GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 3000-5000 FEET EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN
GRADUALLY RISE. THE DISTURBANCES MAY CAUSE THE MEAN STORM TRACK TO
SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH AS THEY PASS...BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE TRACK
THIS FAR OUT IS UNCERTAIN AND A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST OF MOSTLY
CHANCE POPS IS PREFERRED. WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT BREEZIER BY MID
WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW AND THIS WOULD ELIMINATE THE
CHANCES OF COLUMBIA BASIN FOG. 90
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
AT MOST TAF SITES. CIGS/VIS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH KALW MAY NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS WAS THE CASE ON FRIDAY. IF SOME
SOUTH WIND CAN MIX DOWN AT KPDT THIS LOCATION MAY BREAK OUT...BUT
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC FOR THE MORNING ISSUANCE. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO HELP TO EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
KEEP KRDM VFR. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 55 42 54 39 / 60 70 30 20
ALW 57 42 57 40 / 60 70 40 20
PSC 56 39 58 38 / 60 50 20 20
YKM 55 36 55 38 / 40 60 20 20
HRI 58 39 57 37 / 60 60 20 20
ELN 50 35 51 35 / 50 60 20 20
RDM 56 33 49 28 / 40 70 50 20
LGD 56 41 48 32 / 50 70 50 30
GCD 58 39 52 33 / 50 70 40 30
DLS 58 43 54 42 / 50 70 40 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
76/90/90
000
FXUS66 KPQR 081033
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THAT WILL BRING A MIX OF WEATHER WITH IT INCLUDING
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING DOWN TO THE HIGHER PASSES. RATHER WET
AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ONE COLD FRONT IS INLAND AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT OFF
THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WITH COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT TODAY.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAN NOT ELIMINATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
MOVING INLAND TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES INLAND THIS EVENING AND IN UPSLOPE
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING DOWN TO THE HIGHER
PASSES. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE
NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A LOW END
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE UP
NEAR THE SKI RESORTS. WILLSON
&&
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NOT
MUCH CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST
REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...FRONT MOVING ONSHORE IS BRINGING S WINDS GUSTING TO
35 KTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY S WINDS SHOULD
SPREAD INLAND WITH THE FRONT AS THE MORNING GOES ON. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOME HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE FRONT
MAY BRIEFLY PUSH CIGS/VSBYS INTO MVFR/LOCAL IFR CATEGORY. AREAS MVFR
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST AS SECOND FRONTAL ZONE MOVES
ONSHORE 13Z-15Z...THEN LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER
INLAND...MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR WITH EAST WINDS EARLY...SHIFTING TO
SOUTH AND BECOMING GUSTY BY 15Z-16Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS STATIONS REPORTING GUSTS 35-40
KTS. THEREFORE THE GALE WARNING IS VERIFYING NICELY...AND GALES
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN
SOMEWHAT. SCA WINDS STILL LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY VEERING
TO W-NW. W SWELL BUILDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING 15-17 FT BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER GALE POSSIBLE TUE/WED...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE UNTIL MIDDAY
TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 4 PM PST
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
http://weather.gov/portland
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS65 KBOI 081027
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL DEALING WITH PATCHY FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG REPORTED IN BURNS AND
MCCALL...AND SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY. ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS MORNING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME WEAK RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WAS ENTERING THE
PACNW AT THIS TIME. NORTHERN PART OF THE STORM WILL STAY NORTH WHILE
JET STREAM REINVIGORATES THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPS A
MID/UPPER LOW WHICH TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE QPF
AMOUNTS...WITH MODELS SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF QPF.
DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES WENT WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN AT ABOVE
7000 FEET FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW TOTALS.
CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. ALONG
WITH THE SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
IT...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PREFERRED THE MORE ROBUST
NAM12 WINDS WITH THE FRONT VS THE WEAKER GFS...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
SIGNIFICANT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY. GFS INDICATES A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT
TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MOIST PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS HINTING AT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FORMING BY SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN POPS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY DUE TO THE OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE IN SE OREGON AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING...CREATING MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AS
CEILINGS WILL AVERAGE 2K TO 5K FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
20Z IN EASTERN OREGON...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. MVFR
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE TREASURE VALLEY AND EAST AFTER
21Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WINDS ALOFT. NUMEROUS
RAIN...AND MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SL
AVIATION.....SL
000
FXUS66 KPDT 080532 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
930 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
INDICATE RAIN WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. PARTS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS REMAIN IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MIXING IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE LIMITED. THE UPPER LOW AND SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS
MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS WEEKEND. THE PATTERN IS COMPLEX HOWEVER
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW. EXACT
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE IF THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA. 94
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
SHOULD IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. 94
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALL
AREAS...HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE WARM
INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LOW AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN OREGON THROUGH IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SNOWFALL DO NOT EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN
FAIRLY HEAVY QPF FORECAST. A SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ONCE
THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 78
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GIVE THE
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SNOW ABOVE 3000
FEET. AT THIS POINT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SUBSTANTIAL. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A HEAVIER ROUND OF RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET. SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. WARMER AIR WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM. PERRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS...AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THEN...THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL SMALLER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH WHILE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ON FRIDAY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EUROPEAN IN KEEPING THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. DMH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 43 57 41 54 / 50 50 60 40
ALW 43 56 43 55 / 60 50 60 40
PSC 42 58 40 57 / 60 40 40 30
YKM 41 56 37 55 / 70 40 50 20
HRI 42 59 39 57 / 50 40 50 30
ELN 39 53 37 53 / 80 50 60 30
RDM 41 56 34 50 / 50 40 60 50
LGD 41 56 38 50 / 50 40 60 50
GCD 42 56 36 50 / 40 30 60 50
DLS 45 58 43 55 / 70 60 60 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
94/
000
FXUS66 KMFR 080515
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST THIS
EVENING WITH RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING PRECIP
REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. DO EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD
INLAND A BIT DURING THE OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND
WEATHER AND QPF TO REFLECT A DRIER TIME FOR MANY INLAND AREAS UNTIL
SATURDAY. ALSO INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION AS KFALLS AND MOUNT
SHASTA HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME FOG. MTS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008/
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE REGION TODAY IS
SHIFTING EASTWARD RAPIDLY. UPPER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA. INCREASED INSTABILITY AS HEIGHTS FALL AND IT COOLS
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
THIS EVENING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH REACHES THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING
THE FRONT WILL HAVE CROSSED THE CASCADES AND STRETCH FROM FORT ROCK
TO MT SHASTA.
SATURDAY EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
COLD WITH -24C TEMPS AND 500MB. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO THE COLD TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE FRONT WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND AROUND 3 INCHES EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH LOWERING TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD. THE RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES ALOFT ALLOWING FOGS AND LOW VALLEY CLOUDS TO FORM. A
WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE RIDGE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WX THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO
MVFR AT THE COAST AS RAIN SPREADS IN THROUGH 12Z. PATCHY FOG IN
INLAND VALLEYS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH EARLY
SAT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR THE WEST SIDE
DEVELOPING THROUGH 18Z SAT.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR ORZ027-ORZ028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-
PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
$$
000
FXUS66 KPQR 080422
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION SATURDAY...WITH COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR REST OF THE WEEKEND. RATHER WET AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...IMPRESSIVE FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING. FRONT IS ABOUT 90 MILES OFFSHORE...AND WILL ARRIVE ON THE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...SPREADING RAIN INLAND LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE LOW THAT IS BEHIND THIS FIRST
FRONT. THAT LOW IS 400 MILES WEST OF NEWPORT...AND WILL LIFT TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FORMING TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
IT MOVES INTO WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS 1.5 INCH PLUME AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECASTS OF MODERATE RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. SYSTEM MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FEEL NO
SERIOUS THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT WITH LEAVES AND CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS...COULD SEE LOCAL PONDING OF WATER ON SATURDAY THAT MAY
AFFECT LOWLYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND PARTS OF
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY FROM PORTLAND TO KELSO.
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER NORTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS REMAIN TOO SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY. AS RESULT...FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND...BUT NORTH PART WILL
MOVE FASTER TO EAST THAN SOUTH PART. MAY NOT CLEAR THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE CASCADES TIL LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAN NOT ELIMINATE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT.
SNOW LEVELS DO COME DOWN...BUT NOT A BIG DROP. STILL...SHOULD START
SEE SNOW STICKING AT PASSES IN CASCADES LATER SATURDAY EVENING. NO
ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ONLY 2
TO 5 INCHES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL ONLY DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND ON SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH TREND OF COOL SHOWERY WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST
THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. ROCKEY.
&&
.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED TO THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK
A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES DURING THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL MOVE ASHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF CASCADES BY DAYBREAK. STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE AREAS OF MVFR ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES ASHORE. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN. AREAS OF MVFR WILL MOVE INTO THE INLAND AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK OF VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT ON THE COAST AND BY MORNING
INLAND BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN. WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY MID MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH HEAVIER RAIN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE KPDX AREA THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO AROUND
DAYBREAK LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE KPDX AREA IN AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE KPDX AREA SATURDAY
MORNING THEN MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE 400 NM WEST OF TILLAMOOK WILL MOVE TO OFF
WASHINGTON COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. INITIAL FRONT APPROACHING COAST
WILL MOVE ASHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE ASHORE AROUND MIDDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS WILL SPREAD CLOSER TO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
ALL THE WATERS UNTIL THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES BY. SEAS NEAR 10
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD INTO
THE INNER WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 10
FEET IN ALL THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH
UNTIL MIDDAY SAT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 080420
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
810 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
INDICATE RAIN WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. PARTS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS REMAIN IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MIXING IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE LIMITED. THE UPPER LOW AND SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS
MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS WEEKEND. THE PATTERN IS COMPLEX HOWEVER
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW. EXACT
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE IF THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA. 94
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALL
AREAS...HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE WARM
INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LOW AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN OREGON THROUGH IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SNOWFALL DO NOT EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN
FAIRLY HEAVY QPF FORECAST. A SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ONCE
THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 78
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GIVE THE
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SNOW ABOVE 3000
FEET. AT THIS POINT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SUBSTANTIAL. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A HEAVIER ROUND OF RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET. SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. WARMER AIR WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM. PERRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS...AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THEN...THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL SMALLER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH WHILE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ON FRIDAY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EUROPEAN IN KEEPING THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. DMH
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TOMORROW. WEAK INVERSIONS OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAVE NOT ALLOWED
FOG TO COMPLETELY DISPERSE IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS TODAY...ESPECIALLY KALW. EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL
RETURN AND STRENGTHEN AFTER 03Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR AND WORSE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS EXCEPT KRDM. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND TIGHTENS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. PERRY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 43 57 41 54 / 50 50 60 40
ALW 43 56 43 55 / 60 50 60 40
PSC 42 58 40 57 / 60 40 40 30
YKM 41 56 37 55 / 70 40 50 20
HRI 42 59 39 57 / 50 40 50 30
ELN 39 53 37 53 / 80 50 60 30
RDM 41 56 34 50 / 50 40 60 50
LGD 41 56 38 50 / 50 40 60 50
GCD 42 56 36 50 / 40 30 60 50
DLS 45 58 43 55 / 70 60 60 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
94/
000
FXUS65 KBOI 080413
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
913 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
WILL PROVIDE MOIST S FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE BLUES
THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER MTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO WITH ISOLATED VALLEY SHOWERS. MINOR
ZFP UPDATE FOR HIGHER POPS ZONE 11. THE MOIST/CLOUDY WARM SECTOR
WILL BE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SE OREGON SATURDAY EVENING AND SW
IDAHO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT PLAN TO ADD THUNDER THIS SHIFT
HOWEVER THERE IS A HINT OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON POSITION OF THE FRONT IN SE OREGON...150 J/KG CAPE AND
NON-POSITIVE LIFTED INDICES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DECREASING SHOWERS AND COOLER WX SUNDAY THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS BAKER COUNTY INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AVERAGING 2K TO 5K FT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. MVFR RAIN SHOWERS
SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE TREASURE VALLEY BY 18Z. SNOW LEVELS
APPROXIMATELY 7500 FT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WARM SECTOR AIR MASS NOW FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER. WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. THUS...MILDER
TEMPERATURES WILL NOW BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DUE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RECENT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT FROPA...AND THUS MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE A FORECAST PROBLEM FOR SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IN THIS SLOWER TIMING TO HAVE SATURDAY TEMPERATURES EQUAL
OR EXCEED THOSE OF TODAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD GUIDANCE NUMBERS
HOWEVER IN CASE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. PRECIP
PROBABILITY INCREASES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM THE VANCOUVER ISLAND AREA
AND CLOSES OFF IN OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
FRAME...SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S...MORE TYPICAL OF MID NOVEMBER.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ON ISSUING WSW HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME SINCE EACH
NEW RUN HAS BEEN COMING IN A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
SLOWER TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED WARMER/SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING SNOW LEVELS
RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FORECAST TREND WAS
TO INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY STILL POSES THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF TWIN FALLS AND OWYHEE COUNTIES WHERE 700 MB WINDS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
OREGON ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SW IDAHO. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVES INTO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...GS
PREV LONG TERM....MT/DD
000
FXUS66 KPDT 072217
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
217 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALL
AREAS...HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE WARM
INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LOW AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN OREGON THROUGH IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SNOWFALL DO NOT EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN
FAIRLY HEAVY QPF FORECAST. A SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ONCE
THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 78
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GIVE THE
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SNOW ABOVE 3000
FEET. AT THIS POINT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SUBSTANTIAL. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A HEAVIER ROUND OF RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET. SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. WARMER AIR WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM. PERRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS...AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THEN...THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL SMALLER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH WHILE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ON FRIDAY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EUROPEAN IN KEEPING THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TOMORROW. WEAK INVERSIONS OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAVE NOT ALLOWED
FOG TO COMPLETELY DISPERSE IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS TODAY...ESPECIALLY KALW. EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL
RETURN AND STRENGTHEN AFTER 03Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR AND WORSE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS EXCEPT KRDM. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND TIGHTENS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. PERRY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 43 57 41 54 / 50 50 60 40
ALW 44 56 43 55 / 60 50 60 40
PSC 42 58 40 57 / 60 40 40 30
YKM 41 56 37 55 / 60 40 50 20
HRI 42 59 39 57 / 50 40 50 30
ELN 39 53 37 53 / 70 50 60 30
RDM 38 56 34 50 / 40 40 60 50
LGD 41 56 38 50 / 40 40 60 50
GCD 38 56 36 50 / 30 30 60 50
DLS 45 58 43 55 / 60 60 60 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
78/83/83
000
FXUS66 KPQR 072217
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
216 PM PST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM WESTERN WA SW OVER THE
PAC WILL PUSH INLAND SAT...USHERING IN A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK OFFER A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KICKS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...DRYING IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WITH VORT MAX NEAR 135W
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 130W SUGGEST A
STRENGTHENING OF THE SHORT WAVE OFFSHORE. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NNE
OVERNIGHT...TAIL END OF TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN LATER TONIGHT...
WHICH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SPOTTY AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SO WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH COMING IN LATE SAT...WITH BEST DYNAMICS
HEADING INLAND INTO NORTHERN CA. WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND DYNAMICS BEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN...SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW BACK DOWN TO PASS LEVELS SAT NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING SUN AND MON WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED TO THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK
A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES DURING THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD.
BROWN
&&
.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT IS N OF THE AREA. THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH. CEILINGS RANGE FROM 2500 FT TO AROUND 4000 FT. A COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LAYERS OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
STEADIER RAIN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. &&
.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS LIE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY...WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND TIGHTEN GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING GALE GUSTS.
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL MOVES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE GALES THROUGH LATE MORNING SAT. SEAS AROUND
10 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD A COUPLE MORE FEET TONIGHT. A SECOND
FRONTAL WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SAT. BY SUN...WILL SEE
SWELL THAT WAS GENERATED OVER THE N PAC ARRIVING WHICH COULD PEAK IN
THE UPPER TEENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH
LATE SAT MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS65 KBOI 072211
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...WARM SECTOR AIR MASS NOW FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER. WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. THUS...MILDER
TEMPERATURES WILL NOW BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DUE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RECENT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT FROPA...AND THUS MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE A FORECAST PROBLEM FOR SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IN THIS SLOWER TIMING TO HAVE SATURDAY TEMPERATURES EQUAL
OR EXCEED THOSE OF TODAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD GUIDANCE NUMBERS
HOWEVER IN CASE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. PRECIP
PROBABILITY INCREASES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM THE VANCOUVER ISLAND AREA
AND CLOSES OFF IN OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
FRAME...SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S...MORE TYPICAL OF MID NOVEMBER.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ON ISSUING WSW HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME SINCE EACH
NEW RUN HAS BEEN COMING IN A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
SLOWER TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED WARMER/SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING SNOW LEVELS
RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FORECAST TREND WAS
TO INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY STILL POSES THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF TWIN FALLS AND OWYHEE COUNTIES WHERE 700 MB WINDS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
OREGON ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SW IDAHO. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVES INTO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS SW IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AVERAGING 2K TO 5K FT.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE W CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING KBKE AND KMYL. SNOW LEVELS APPROXIMATELY 7500 FT. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM....MT/DD
AVIATION.....MT
000
FXUS66 KMFR 072138
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
145 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE REGION
TODAY IS SHIFTING EASTWARD RAPIDLY. UPPER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA. INCREASED INSTABILITY AS HEIGHTS FALL AND IT
COOLS ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT.
THIS EVENING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH REACHES THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING
THE FRONT WILL HAVE CROSSED THE CASCADES AND STRETCH FROM FORT ROCK
TO MT SHASTA.
SATURDAY EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
COLD WITH -24C TEMPS AND 500MB. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO THE COLD TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE FRONT WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND AROUND 3 INCHES EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH LOWERING TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD. THE RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES ALOFT ALLOWING FOGS AND LOW VALLEY CLOUDS TO FORM. A
WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE RIDGE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE AND BECOME SCATTERED. TONIGHT CIGS
AND VSBY LOWERS TO IFR DUE TO THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINNING AT THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREADING EASTWARD
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR ORZ027-ORZ028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-PZZ370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
$$
11
000
FXUS66 KPDT 071802 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1002 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS PLUME OF MOISTURE PERSISTS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE WALLA WALLA...ELLENSBURG AND YAKIMA
AREAS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. 78
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN NORTHWARD AND WILL
EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEAK INVERSIONS ARE ALLOWING FOG TO PERSIST IN KYKM AND
KALW THIS MORNING. BELIEVE IT WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVER
QUITE REACH VFR LEVELS THEN RETURN AFTER SUNDOWN. THE FOG WILL BE
TRICKY AS SUBTLE WIND SHIFTS TOWARDS A DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION COULD
QUICKLY LIFT THE FOG AND A SHIFT AWAY FROM A DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION
COULD QUICKLY RETURN THE FOG. VFR/IFR OR WORSE CIGS/VIS WILL RETURN
AFTER 03Z TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS EXCEPT KRDM AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY REACHING 10 KTS AT KRDM TOMORROW MORNING. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WASHINGTON WITH SOME CLEARING OVER
OREGON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON...OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT...AND
WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT LIKELY POPS
MOUNTAINS...CHANCE POPS IN WASHINGTON...AND DECREASING POPS IN
OREGON AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH IN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. MODELS
PUSH PRECIPITATION EVEN FARTHER NORTH...BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS. BY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE FRONT CURRENTLY
OFFSHORE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE BEST LIFT IN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND IN OREGON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW
HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO KEPT POPS HIGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (8000-9000 FEET) TODAY
AND TONIGHT... THEN DECREASE TO 4000-5000 FEET SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING IN TYPICALLY
RAIN SHADOWED AREAS SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
LOW. COONFIELD
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WEAK...FLAT UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
RIDGE COULD DRY OUT THE REGION OR AT LEAST REDUCE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE A WEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THUS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE LOWER
CHANCES IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE
DIURNALLY WITH DAYTIME SNOW LEVELS RUNNING FROM 4500 TO 5500 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SOME WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 52 45 54 41 / 20 50 50 70
ALW 53 45 55 43 / 30 50 50 70
PSC 53 42 57 39 / 30 50 50 50
YKM 58 40 57 38 / 40 60 50 50
HRI 56 44 56 38 / 20 40 50 50
ELN 50 39 51 37 / 50 70 50 50
RDM 59 37 56 32 / 10 30 50 70
LGD 52 39 55 38 / 30 40 50 80
GCD 59 39 57 37 / 10 30 50 80
DLS 58 45 57 43 / 20 60 60 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
78/83/83
000
FXUS66 KMFR 071714
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...TODAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE REGION THE
WESTERN VALLEYS HAVE TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THIS EVENING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH REACHES THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING
THE FRONT WILL HAVE CROSSED THE CASCADES AND STRETCH FROM FORT ROCK
TO MT SHASTA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
COLD WITH -24C TEMPS AND 500MB. IT WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
THAN THE FRONT WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND AROUND 3 INCHES EAST OF THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
LOWERING TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD. THE RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES ALOFT ALLOWING FOGS AND LOW VALLEY CLOUDS TO FORM. A
WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE RIDGE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z IN LOW CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE AND BECOME
SCATTERED HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER MTN OBSCN. TONIGHT CIGS
AND VSBY LOWERS TO IFR DUE TO THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 071702
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST AREA RIGHT ON THE EDGE AT THIS TIME OF WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...AND EXTENSIVE WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. POTENTIAL FOR VERY MILD CONDITIONS IF
ENOUGH CLEARING WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HENCE THIS IS A
TOUGH MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 50S CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE AND THUS WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THESE TEMPERATURES. BUT A HEADS UP TO HIGHER TEMPS IF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED CLEARING HAPPENS. WILL UPDATE IF REQUIRED. ANOTHER MILD
DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A MAJOR CHANGE AND DEVELOPING WET
PATTERN. MORE DETAILS ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG /AND LOW IFR CONDITIONS/ WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SE OREGON THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF SW IDAHO - CEILINGS AVERAGING
BETWEEN 2K AND 5K FEET. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT
LOCAL MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY OR AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT STALLED IN OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND
LOW-MID CLOUDS STAYED AROUND ALL DAY. BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING IN MALHEUR COUNTY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING... SPREADING EAST. PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER YESTERDAY IN OUR SWRN ZONES...BUT
PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING IN NRN AND ERN ZONES. DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT BNO AND WE HAVE JUST NOW ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR
IT. FOG ALSO BEGINNING NEAR MYL AND PROBABLY NEAR BKE. PCPN HAS
RETREATED TO OUR NRN-MOST ZONES AND ONLY THOSE ZONES WILL HAVE ANY
CHANCE OF PCPN TODAY. FOR TONIGHT THE MAV AND MET DISAGREE WIDELY
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PCPN AS PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...MAV POP
TONIGHT AT MYL ONLY 7 PCT WHILE MET SHOWED 85 PCT. WE PREFER DRIER
MAV BUT OFFICES TO OUR NORTH FAVOR THE WETTER NAM. PCPN BOUNDARY
WILL THEREFORE BE FORECAST NEAR 44-45N TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY BOTH
GFS AND NAM BRING A MOISTURE-BEARING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENEWD ACROSS
OUR SRN ZONES WHILE NRN ZONES HAVE GENERAL LIGHT RAIN...SNOW LEVEL
NEAR 8000 FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MOIST PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...AND DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN ZONES...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS
THE EAST. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL JET...WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 18Z TODAY IN ORZ061.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...GS
PREV DISCUSSION...LC
LONG TERM....SL
AVIATION.....MT
000
FXUS66 KPDT 071658
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
856 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS PLUME OF MOISTURE PERSISTS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE WALLA WALLA...ELLENSBURG AND YAKIMA
AREAS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. 78
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WASHINGTON WITH SOME CLEARING OVER
OREGON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON...OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT...AND
WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT LIKELY POPS
MOUNTAINS...CHANCE POPS IN WASHINGTON...AND DECREASING POPS IN
OREGON AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH IN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. MODELS
PUSH PRECIPITATION EVEN FARTHER NORTH...BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS. BY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE FRONT CURRENTLY
OFFSHORE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE BEST LIFT IN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND IN OREGON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW
HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO KEPT POPS HIGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (8000-9000 FEET) TODAY
AND TONIGHT... THEN DECREASE TO 4000-5000 FEET SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING IN TYPICALLY
RAIN SHADOWED AREAS SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
LOW. COONFIELD
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WEAK...FLAT UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
RIDGE COULD DRY OUT THE REGION OR AT LEAST REDUCE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE A WEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THUS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE LOWER
CHANCES IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE
DIURNALLY WITH DAYTIME SNOW LEVELS RUNNING FROM 4500 TO 5500 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SOME WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 90
AVIATION...12Z TAFS..MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM A KDLS TO KPDT LINE
NORTHWARD. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KPSC AND KYKM EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO PERSIST AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SHOULD SEE THESE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING THEN AGAIN LOWER TO IFR IN THE EVENING. CIGS AND VIS AT
KPDT AND KALW WILL BE TRICKY DURING THIS PERIOD. DOWN SLOPE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH IFR OR WORSE CIGS/VIS AWAY FROM THESE
SITES WHILE UPSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THESE
CONDITIONS BACK OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THESE WIND AND CONDITION SHIFTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AT BEST. PERSISTENT DOWN SLOPE SOUTH FLOW WILL
KEEP KRDM VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 52 45 54 41 / 20 50 50 70
ALW 53 45 55 43 / 30 50 50 70
PSC 53 42 57 39 / 30 50 50 50
YKM 58 40 57 38 / 40 60 50 50
HRI 56 44 56 38 / 20 40 50 50
ELN 50 39 51 37 / 50 70 50 50
RDM 59 37 56 32 / 10 30 50 70
LGD 52 39 55 38 / 30 40 50 80
GCD 59 39 57 37 / 10 30 50 80
DLS 58 45 57 43 / 20 60 60 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
78/83/83
000
FXUS66 KPQR 071645
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
844 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
WA...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OREGON
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DISTRICT AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW MOST CASCADE PASS LEVELS
BY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PASSES. COOL
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME CLEARING MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS
LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
WET SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS DIRECTED INTO
WESTERN WA TODAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST TO THE N
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER S MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY...WITH SATELLITE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY LIFT NE
INTO THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN IN OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME COOL AIR
TRAPPED IN THE GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THE GORGE...SOUTHERLIES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LARGER STORM SYSTEM
WILL LEAVE REGION IN MILD AIR TODAY.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
RAIN SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FRONT
PIVOTS SE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...AS MODELS HINT AT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THUS SOME
INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE 06Z GFS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING ZERO DEG C
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. COOL
SHOWERY REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF
DRYING BY MONDAY. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING BACK A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES DURING THE
MIDWEEK AND LATEWEEK PERIOD. WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE
DISTRICT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST REMAINS WET AND
PROBABLY MILD. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT IS N OF THE AREA WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
GENERALLY VFR INLAND AND POCKETS OF MVFR IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LAYERS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WITH
STEADIER RAIN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...
THEN MVFR MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS LIE BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT TO THE W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH E TODAY AND
TIGHTEN GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING GALE GUSTS. WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGTH AS THE FRONT WILL MOVES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINE THE GALES THROUGH LATE MORNING SAT. SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 11 TODAY...THEN BUILDING A BIT MORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SAT. BY SUN...WILL SEE SWELL
THAT WAS GENERATED OVER THE N PAC ARRIVING WHICH COULD PEAK AT 18 TO
20 FT.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH
LATE SAT MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR MIDDAY TODAY AND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 071224 CCA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...THE WARM FRONT THAT PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THURSDAY HAS STALLED OVER WASHINGTON...WITH STEADY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN FALLING JUST NORTH OF OUR DISTRICT. EVENTUALLY A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN
IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WITH SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW MOST CASCADE PASS LEVELS BY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PASSES. COOL SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME CLEARING MONDAY. HOWEVER
ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE WET SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...STALLED FRONT OVER WASHINGTON PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...WITH 3-6 INCHES ALREADY
REPORTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE SPARING OUR
DISTRICT...AS AXIS OF HIGH PW AIR REMAINS FOCUSED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF PACIFIC COUNTY. THUS FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE MAXED OUT
AT ABOUT 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAPA HILLS...STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME IMPRESSIVE RISES ON THE GRAYS RIVER...WHICH IS APPROACHING
BANKFULL AT ROSBURG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WILLAPA HILLS THIS MORNING...SO THIS RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE FRONT BEGINS TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY.
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...IN OREGON...ITS A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY
AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS STILL GENERATING SOME RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON COAST
RANGE...BUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS BEEN MAINLY DRY THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE OREGON CASCADES AND SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY REMAINING DRY. RAIN SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FRONT PIVOTS SE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...AS MODELS HINT AT
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THUS SOME INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE 06Z GFS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING ZERO DEG C
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. COOL
SHOWERY REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF
DRYING BY MONDAY. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOL WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES DURING THE MIDWEEK AND LATEWEEK PERIOD. WITH FAST ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH
SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE MID TO LATE
WEEK FORECAST REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT IS N OF THE AREA...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
GENERALLY VFR INLAND...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE IN A
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. STILL POOR CONDITIONS ON THE N COAST
WHERE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING IFR AND MVFR...BUT MAINLY VFR
CENTRAL COAST. VFR WILL DOMINATE INLAND CONDITIONS TODAY. IFR ON N
COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY 14Z...WITH BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE
AROUND MIDDAY...BUT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO MVFR AS
FRONTAL MOISTURE SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR FOR
THE CENTRAL COAST UNTIL MVFR DOMINATES AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. RW
KPDX AND APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...
THEN MVFR MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS LIE BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH E TODAY AND
TIGHTEN GRADIENTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SEEMS TO BE DECENT SUPPORT FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 TODAY...THEN BUILDING A BIT
MORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SAT. BY
SUN...WILL SEE SWELL THAT WAS GENERATED OVER THE N PAC ARRIVING.
COULD TOP AT 18 TO 20 FT... BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT BEFORE
GETTING GRASP ON DETAIL.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN EFFECT FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR MIDDAY TODAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 071202 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
402 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WASHINGTON WITH SOME CLEARING OVER
OREGON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON...OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT...AND
WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT LIKELY POPS
MOUNTAINS...CHANCE POPS IN WASHINGTON...AND DECREASING POPS IN
OREGON AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH IN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. MODELS
PUSH PRECIPITATION EVEN FARTHER NORTH...BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS. BY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE FRONT CURRENTLY
OFFSHORE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE BEST LIFT IN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND IN OREGON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW
HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO KEPT POPS HIGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (8000-9000 FEET) TODAY
AND TONIGHT... THEN DECREASE TO 4000-5000 FEET SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING IN TYPICALLY
RAIN SHADOWED AREAS SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
LOW. COONFIELD
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WEAK...FLAT UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
RIDGE COULD DRY OUT THE REGION OR AT LEAST REDUCE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE A WEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THUS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE LOWER
CHANCES IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE
DIURNALLY WITH DAYTIME SNOW LEVELS RUNNING FROM 4500 TO 5500 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SOME WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 90
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS..MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM A KDLS TO KPDT LINE
NORTHWARD. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KPSC AND KYKM EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO PERSIST AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SHOULD SEE THESE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING THEN AGAIN LOWER TO IFR IN THE EVENING. CIGS AND VIS AT
KPDT AND KALW WILL BE TRICKY DURING THIS PERIOD. DOWN SLOPE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH IFR OR WORSE CIGS/VIS AWAY FROM THESE
SITES WHILE UPSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THESE
CONDITIONS BACK OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THESE WIND AND CONDITION SHIFTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AT BEST. PERSISTENT DOWN SLOPE SOUTH FLOW WILL
KEEP KRDM VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 52 45 54 41 / 20 50 50 70
ALW 53 45 55 43 / 30 50 50 70
PSC 53 42 57 39 / 30 50 50 50
YKM 58 40 57 38 / 50 60 50 50
HRI 56 44 56 38 / 20 40 50 50
ELN 50 39 51 37 / 60 70 50 50
RDM 59 37 56 32 / 10 30 50 70
LGD 52 39 55 38 / 40 40 50 80
GCD 59 39 57 37 / 20 30 50 80
DLS 58 45 57 43 / 40 60 60 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
76/90/90
000
FXUS66 KMFR 071140
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES ALOFT LAST EVENING
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD
SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED BY THEN AS MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.
STRONG JET ENERGY IS OVERTAKING A COLD FRONT NEAR 140W WITH
A RESULTANT SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OUTSIDE OF 130W
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT IN DEVELOPING A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON
BORDER REGION THIS EVENING AND EXPANDING INTO SATURDAY IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE OVERRUNNING...BUT THE NAM
SHOWS LITTLE OF THIS NOR DOES THE EC. CONSIDERING THE ENERGY
TRACKING ALONG 40N IN WATER VAPOR AND THE BROAD FETCH OF 1.5+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STEMMING FROM NEAR 30N...FEELING IS THAT THE
GFS IS THE MORE CORRECT SOLUTION. HAVE TRENDED POPS AND QPF TO
LEAN ON THE GFS TONIGHT.
NOSE OF THE STRONG UPPER JET COMES INTO NORTHERN CAL SATURDAY AS A
COLD UPPER TROUGH OVERTAKES THE PACNW. AGAIN...THE DRIER NAM HERE
WAS DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE WETTER GFS AND POPS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TO AROUND 4000 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVES AND CONTINUED MODERATE AND
UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW INTO SUNDAY. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW
ARE ON TAP FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT A
SNOW ADVISORY EVENT MAY BE IN STORE HERE FOR THE CASCADES SAT NT
INTO EARLY SUN.
IT APPEARS THAT HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ALOFT MONDAY...BUT THERE
IS BY NO MEANS A CONSENSUS HERE. LATER TUESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK
A STRONG WESTERLY JET WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO NORTHERN OREGON OR
WASHINGTON WHICH WILL PRODUCE A GOOD DOSE OR RAIN TO THE
NORTH...AND PROBABLY SOME FOR SW OREGON TOO THOUGH PROBABLY NOT
HEAVY. EAST SIDE AND NORCAL HERE PROBABLY DRY. STAVISH
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. UPPER LEVELS CLEAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 21Z
WITH MTN OBSCN...MVFR CIGS AND RAIN RETURNING OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
$$
000
FXUS66 KPQR 071101
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...THE WARM FRONT THAT PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THURSDAY HAS STALLED OVER WASHINGTON...WITH STEADY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN FALLING JUST NORTH OF OUR DISTRICT. EVENTUALLY A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN
IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WITH SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW MOST CASCADE PASS LEVELS BY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PASSES. COOL SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME CLEARING MONDAY. HOWEVER
ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE WET SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...STALLED FRONT OVER WASHINGTON PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...WITH 3-6 INCHES ALREADY
REPORTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE SPARING OUR
DISTRICT...AS AXIS OF HIGH PW AIR REMAINS FOCUSED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF PACIFIC COUNTY. THUS FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE MAXED OUT
AT ABOUT 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAPA HILLS...STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME IMPRESSIVE RISES ON THE GRAYS RIVER...WHICH IS APPROACHING
BANKFULL AT ROSBURG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WILLAPA HILLS THIS MORNING...SO THIS RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE FRONT BEGINS TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY.
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...IN OREGON...ITS A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY
AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS STILL GENERATING SOME RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON COAST
RANGE...BUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS BEEN MAINLY DRY THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE OREGON CASCADES AND SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY REMAINING DRY. RAIN SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FRONT PIVOTS SE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...AS MODELS HINT AT
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THUS SOME INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE 06Z GFS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING ZERO DEG C
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. COOL
SHOWERY REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF
DRYING BY MONDAY. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOL WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES DURING THE MIDWEEK AND LATEWEEK PERIOD. WITH FAST ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH
SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE MID TO LATE
WEEK FORECAST REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT IS N OF THE AREA...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
GENERALLY VFR INLAND...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE IN A
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. STILL POOR CONDITIONS ON THE N COAST
WHERE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING IFR AND MVFR...BUT MAINLY VFR
CENTRAL COAST. VFR WILL DOMINATE INLAND CONDITIONS TODAY. IFR ON N
COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY 14Z...WITH BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE
AROUND MIDDAY...BUT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO MVFR AS
FRONTAL MOISTURE SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR FOR
THE CENTRAL COAST UNTIL MVFR DOMINATES AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. RW
KPDX AND APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...
THEN MVFR MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS LIE BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH E TODAY AND
TIGHTEN GRADIENTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SEEMS TO BE DECENT SUPPORT FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 TODAY...THEN BUILDING A BIT
MORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SAT. BY
SUN...WILL SEE SWELL THAT WAS GENERATED OVER THE N PAC ARRIVING.
COULD TOP AT 18 TO 20 FT... BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT BEFORE
GETTING GRASP ON DETAIL.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN EFFECT FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR MIDDAY TODAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 071056
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
256 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WASHINGTON WITH SOME CLEARING OVER
OREGON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON...OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT...AND
WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT LIKELY POPS
MOUNTAINS...CHANCE POPS IN WASHINGTON...AND DECREASING POPS IN
OREGON AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH IN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. MODELS
PUSH PRECIPITATION EVEN FARTHER NORTH...BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS. BY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE FRONT CURRENTLY
OFFSHORE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE BEST LIFT IN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND IN OREGON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW
HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO KEPT POPS HIGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (8000-9000 FEET) TODAY
AND TONIGHT... THEN DECREASE TO 4000-5000 FEET SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING IN TYPICALLY
RAIN SHADOWED AREAS SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
LOW. COONFIELD
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WEAK...FLAT UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
RIDGE COULD DRY OUT THE REGION OR AT LEAST REDUCE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE A WEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THUS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE LOWER
CHANCES IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE
DIURNALLY WITH DAYTIME SNOW LEVELS RUNNING FROM 4500 TO 5500 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SOME WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 90
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...MOSAIC RADAR LOOP OF
PACIFIC NORTHWEST RADARS SHOWS A SOLID RAIN SHIELD OVER NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON WITH RAIN SLOPPING OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES INTO
KITTITAS COUNTY AND MOUNTAINS OF YAKIMA COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ABOVE 90 PERCENT AT SURFACE AND IN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND MVFR CEILINGS IN MOST OF LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND YAKIMA VALLEY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LOCAL IFR CEILINGS MAY STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND AFFECTING
RIDGETOPS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS DUE TO PRESSURE
GRADIENTS PUSHING LOW CEILINGS AND ASSOCIATED FOG BANK TO INTERACT
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. MIXING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND ADIABATIC
WARMING HAVE REACHED KPDT AND KALW...THUS RAISING VISIBILITIES AND
LIFTING CEILINGS OUT OF IFR CATEGORY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN OREGON
BEFORE AN OVERALL DETERIORATING TREND BEGINS LATE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. KYKM AND KDLS WILL REMAIN CLOSEST TO THE
MOISTURE PLUME MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM FORECAST SO THEIR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THE MOST RESTRICTED. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 52 45 54 41 / 20 50 50 70
ALW 53 45 55 43 / 30 50 50 70
PSC 53 42 57 39 / 30 50 50 50
YKM 58 40 57 38 / 50 60 50 50
HRI 56 44 56 38 / 20 40 50 50
ELN 50 39 51 37 / 60 70 50 50
RDM 59 37 56 32 / 10 30 50 70
LGD 52 39 55 38 / 40 40 50 80
GCD 59 39 57 37 / 20 30 50 80
DLS 58 45 57 43 / 40 60 60 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
76/90/90
000
FXUS65 KBOI 070945
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONT STALLED IN OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID
CLOUDS STAYED AROUND ALL DAY. BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING IN MALHEUR COUNTY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...
SPREADING EAST. PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER YESTERDAY IN OUR SWRN ZONES...BUT PERSISTENT
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING IN NRN AND ERN ZONES. DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT BNO AND WE HAVE JUST NOW ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR IT.
FOG ALSO BEGINNING NEAR MYL AND PROBABLY NEAR BKE. PCPN HAS
RETREATED TO OUR NRN-MOST ZONES AND ONLY THOSE ZONES WILL HAVE ANY
CHANCE OF PCPN TODAY. FOR TONIGHT THE MAV AND MET DISAGREE WIDELY
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PCPN AS PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...MAV POP
TONIGHT AT MYL ONLY 7 PCT WHILE MET SHOWED 85 PCT. WE PREFER DRIER
MAV BUT OFFICES TO OUR NORTH FAVOR THE WETTER NAM. PCPN BOUNDARY
WILL THEREFORE BE FORECAST NEAR 44-45N TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY BOTH
GFS AND NAM BRING A MOISTURE-BEARING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENEWD ACROSS
OUR SRN ZONES WHILE NRN ZONES HAVE GENERAL LIGHT RAIN...SNOW LEVEL
NEAR 8000 FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MOIST PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...AND DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN ZONES...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS
THE EAST. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL JET...WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SW IDAHO AND EASTERN
OREGON PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN OREGON THROUGH AT
LEAST 12-15Z AND ACROSS SW IDAHO THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. FOG IN
EASTERN OREGON AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR AND ISOLATED LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. ISOLATED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON
TODAY WILL CREATE LOCAL MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WNW
WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 18Z TODAY IN ORZ061.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SL
AVIATION.....SL
000
FXUS66 KPDT 070652 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1052 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED
MOISTURE/CLOUD PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION RIDING OVER AND THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN
WASHINGTON CLOUDY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES AND IN THE LOWER KITTITAS VALLEY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS THE FLOW ALOFT IS PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY AND THIS WILL YIELD RAIN SHADOWING IMMEDIATELY EST OF THE
CASCADES AND OVER EASTERN OREGON AND IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
YAKIMA VALLEY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AS SUCH I HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AND
IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND YAKIMA VALLEY. WINDS HAVE RESPONDED
TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND ARE
NOW PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS...SO HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS FOR
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT FOR THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. I HAVE ISSUED AN
AMENDED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT FOR THESE
CHANGES. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MOSAIC RADAR LOOP OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST RADARS
SHOWS A SOLID RAIN SHIELD OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WITH RAIN
SLOPPING OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES INTO KITTITAS COUNTY AND
MOUNTAINS OF YAKIMA COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 90 PERCENT AT
SURFACE AND IN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS IN
MOST OF LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND YAKIMA VALLEY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LOCAL IFR CEILINGS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND AFFECTING RIDGETOPS IN
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENTS
PUSHING LOW CEILINGS AND ASSOCIATED FOG BANK TO INTERACT WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIXING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND ADIABATIC WARMING HAVE
REACHED KPDT AND KALW...THUS RAISING VISIBILITIES AND LIFTING
CEILINGS OUT OF IFR CATEGORY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN OREGON BEFORE AN
OVERALL DETERIORATING TREND BEGINS LATE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. KYKM AND KDLS WILL REMAIN CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE PLUME
MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM FORECAST SO THEIR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
MOST RESTRICTED. POLAN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS
DIMINISHED. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AS LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OFFSHORE WOULD SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
WITH A WARM AIRMASS ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE FALLING HOWEVER EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH A
TRANSITION TO MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING SAT NIGHT. 94
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS
IMPACT THE AREA. THE STRONGEST SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE DEEPENING AND MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON. THIS WILL
CIRCULATE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THRESHOLD TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THE PRESENT
TIME IF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS IN THE OFFING. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM AND THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A COUPLE OF MORE TO FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. OVERALL...THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO NEXT WEEK SO SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE RATHER HIGH. LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK SO
PRECIPITATION TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 40 55 44 55 / 20 30 40 50
ALW 40 55 44 57 / 30 40 50 50
PSC 41 56 42 59 / 20 40 40 50
YKM 38 55 40 57 / 40 50 50 50
HRI 41 57 42 57 / 20 30 40 50
ELN 36 51 38 54 / 60 60 60 50
RDM 37 58 37 55 / 10 20 20 50
LGD 36 54 38 54 / 30 40 30 50
GCD 37 55 38 56 / 10 20 30 50
DLS 44 56 44 57 / 30 50 50 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
99/94/78
000
FXUS66 KPDT 070502
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
900 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.SHORT TERM...WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT IN OREGON ZONES AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN. POLAN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS
DIMINISHED. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AS LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OFFSHORE WOULD SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
WITH A WARM AIRMASS ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE FALLING HOWEVER EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH A
TRANSITION TO MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING SAT NIGHT. 94
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS
IMPACT THE AREA. THE STRONGEST SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE DEEPENING AND MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON. THIS WILL
CIRCULATE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THRESHOLD TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THE PRESENT
TIME IF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS IN THE OFFING. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM AND THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A COUPLE OF MORE TO FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. OVERALL...THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO NEXT WEEK SO SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE RATHER HIGH. LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK SO
PRECIPITATION TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. 78
AVIATION...RAIN IS LETTING UP IN MOST AREAS BUT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH. EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH BEFORE AN OVERALL DETERIORATING
TREND TAKES PLACE LATE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. KYKM
AND KDLS WILL REMAIN CLOSEST TO THE MOIST PLUME SO THEIR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THE MOST RESTRICTED. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 40 55 44 55 / 20 30 40 50
ALW 40 55 44 57 / 30 40 50 50
PSC 41 56 42 59 / 20 40 40 50
YKM 38 55 40 57 / 40 50 50 50
HRI 41 57 42 57 / 20 30 40 50
ELN 36 51 38 54 / 60 60 60 50
RDM 37 58 37 55 / 10 20 20 50
LGD 36 54 38 54 / 30 40 30 50
GCD 37 55 38 56 / 10 20 30 50
DLS 44 56 44 57 / 30 50 50 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
99/99/76
000
FXUS66 KMFR 070431
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
831 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS WEST AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
FIRST LOOK AT THE 0Z NAM SUGGEST THE ONSET OF RAIN MAY BE DELAYED
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AT THE COAST AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
INLAND. WE MAY END UP SCALING BACK THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION ON
THAT. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE
MADE.
&&
.AVIATION...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST THIS EVENING AND WITH
AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CLOSE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WOULD
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS
WEST AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. VIS COULD LOWER TO NEAR A MILE WITH
WESTSIDE VALLEYS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO AROUND A HALF MILE. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VIS AND CIGS
INCREASE.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
$$
99/99/99
000
FXUS65 KBOI 070430
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS STILL OUT THERE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH AND FORECAST SEEMS TO
HAVE THAT DEPICTED WELL WITH MOST CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE DIFFICULTY IS WITH TEMPERATURES.
LOW CLOUDS STUCK ALONG THE WARM FRONT ARE KEEPING THE SURFACE FROM
REALIZING THE TREMENDOUS WARMING GOING ON ALOFT AND PLAYING HAVOC
WITH SURFACE RADIATION. MODELS INSIST THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT
BREAK UP UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY IN OREGON AND LATE FRIDAY IN IDAHO.
THAT WILL CAUSE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WE
HAVE FORECAST. WILL CHANGE TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY IN AN UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET AGL WILL
OBSCURE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW
CLOUDS SLOWLY SHIFTING NE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
THIS CLOUD DECK OVER ALL TAFS SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
BASED ON THIS WILL TREND TAF FORECAST TOWARDS MVFR-LOW VFR CIGS IN
SE OREGON THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AND IN SW IDAHO THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z
BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
SURFACE AND ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA...BUT IN
REALITY HAS BEEN ALMOST STATIONARY TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN ALONG IT. THIS CONTINUES AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WRAPS UP DOWNSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO INTENSIFY AND AMPLIFY. THUS...LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD AND LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE WARM
FROM WILL MOVE NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL TAKE AWHILE LONGER TO OCCUR...MOST LIKELY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. RAIN AND SNOW ALONG FRONT THIS EVENING IS VERY LIGHT AND IN
MANY CASES EVEN DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMING AND
DRYING EXPECTED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH UPPER
WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY...THUS ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH
NORTH AND EAST. FRIDAY MAX TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AND MAY IN
FACT GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST IF SUN BREAKS OCCUR ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN WARM SECTOR AIR MASS. FRIDAY
NOT A BAD WEATHER DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MAJOR COOL
AND WET PATTERN SET FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...TB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...GS
PREV LONG TERM....DG/DD
000
FXUS66 KPQR 070423
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
825 PM PST THU NOV 06 2008
.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL ZONE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SINKS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AD FRIDAY
MORNING AS NEXT WAVE MOVES TO VANCOUVER ISLAND BY MIDDAY. VERY MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND. TRAILING FRONTAL BAND
WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH SYSTEM WILL SPLIT SOME AS IT APPROACHES. COLD UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AREA ON MONDAY. STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF WET SYSTEMS EFFECTING THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PW AMS WITH SOLID WSW 850 MB FLOW OVER WESTERN WA
THIS EVE. SHORT WAVE IN GULF OF AK DEPRESSING ZONE A LITTLE S THIS
EVE. THIS WILL BRING SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES TO S WA COAST
EXTENDING TO NEAR KAST. STILL LIGHTER PRECIPITATION N COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES THIS EVE WILL INCREASE SOME AS ZONE GETS A LITTLE
CLOSER. NEXT FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 135 W MOVES TO VANCOUVER ISLAND BY
MIDDAY FRI. THIS WILL LIFT ZONE INTO NW WA. WITH SW ONSHORE STILL
OVER AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES NORTHERN
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WITH DRIZZLE LIKE PRECIPITATION N VALLEY. AS
ZONE LIFTS FURTHER N FRI AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COAST AND CASCADES WITH DRIER S FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TRAILING
FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRI THOUGH GFS AND NAM LOOK TOO FAST IN MOVING
SYSTEM IN. WITH WAVE JUST INTO BC BY LATE FRI EXPECT FRONT JUST TO BE
EFFECTING COAST BY 00Z SAT. EURO SLOWER THEN GFS/NAM AND WITH MAIN
UPPER TROUGH STILL OFFSHORE SLOWER LOOKS BETTER. TRAILING FRONT MOVES
INTO COASTAL AREA FRI EVE THEN ACROSS REST OF AREA FRI NIGHT. S PART
OF SYSTEM ALREADY WEAKENING AND BY THE TIME SYSTEM REACHES AREA S
PART OF AREA WILL BE ON EDGE OF PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE WILL ONLY GO
LIKELY POPS SE PART OF AREA. STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES COAST
LATE SAT. SYSTEM SPLITTING AS IT APPROACHES AS STRONG JET DIGS INTO
NORTHERN CA. STILL SOLID PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR ALL AREA HOWEVER
HEAVIEST WILL BE NEAR COAST AND S PART OF AREA. SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SAT EVE. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST OF SHOWERS WITH LIKELY POPS N
PART THROUGH SOME RAIN MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVE. COLD UPPER TROUGH
OVER AREA FOR SUN. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK AS BEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW
OVER S PART OF AREA.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOL WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN DISTURBANCE AFTER DISTURBANCE THROUGH
MID WEEK. ONE IS SET TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...
ANOTHER LATER TUESDAY...AND YET ANOTHER LATER WEDNESDAY. WITH RATHER
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA CARRYING EACH SYSTEM IN...SNOW LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY ABOVE PASS LEVELS. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY
APPRECIABLE BREAKS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. KEPT THE FORECAST WET WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. BROWN
&&
.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED N OF THE AREA...WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR INLAND...WITH POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR N OF A
KTTD TO KHIO LINE TIL MIDNIGHT. STILL POOR CONDITIONS ON THE
COAST...WITH IFR AND MVFR. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR DOMINATING BY 08Z AND REMAINING VFR THRU FRI.
IFR ON COAST BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR ON THE COAST BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z...WITH OCCASIONAL VFR ON S OF KTMK AFTER 12Z. ROCKEY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDERWAY AS S WINDS HAVE
NOW CUT INTO KPDX AREA. WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT AND FRI. HOWEVER...
WILL HAVE POCKETS OF IFR OR MVFR CLOUDS IN AND NEAR KPDX TIL 07Z.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS LIE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT...WITH COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD FRI
AND TIGHTEN GRADIENTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. SEEMS TO BE DECENT SUPPORT FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF FRI NIGHT.
WILL HOIST GALE WARNING FOR THAT TIME. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11
FT THROUGH FRI...THEN BUILDING A BIT MORE FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SAT. ON SUN...WILL SEE SWELL THAT
WAS GENERATED OVER THE N PAC ARRIVING. COULD TOP AT 18 TO 20 FT...
BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT BEFORE GETTING GRASP ON DETAIL.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN EFFECT FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH FRI.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH FRI.
GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FOR FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR LATE THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN MIDDAY FRI.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
Http://weather.gov/portland
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
| 
