000
FXUS61 KALY 082341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT WARM WEATHER WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.  COLDER AIR COMBINING
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...INCLUDING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...TO THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP...WAS QUICKLY ROTATING
NORTHEAST FROM VA/W-VA BORDER. WHILE UPSTREAM RADAR ACTIVITY IS
MINIMAL...PER THE LATEST RUC...BAROCLINICITY WAS INCREASING ACROSS
THE HUDSON VALLEY AS FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
EAST. SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FLARE UP OF SHOWERS FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND BY MIDNIGHT WITH A
REDUCTION IN OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES STATE CONTINUES TO FILL IN AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...SLOW COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH A
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL COME INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS
OHIO/LAKE ERIE INTO ONTARIO WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER POTENT
AS THIS FEATURE ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ITS DOWNSTREAM EFFECT...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT
RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE PRECIP. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY BE INCREASING
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO AOA -4C...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LAKE DELTA T/S AROUND 13C...AND MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE AROUND 250-260. SO WILL HOLD ONTO LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND INTO HAMILTON COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. WHILE TIMING DIFFERENCE REMAINS IN THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE RATHER STRONG
AND WILL INCREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW TRAJECTORY FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT MIGHT
FIND A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT REDUCING POPS/QPF/PRECIP.

MONDAY WILL BE A CHILLY/BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOST OF THE ISSUES
PERTAINING TO LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AROUND COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO WE WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE TRICKY AS DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
FORECAST SOUNDING BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THAT WILL ALL CHANGE
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO FA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING ACROSS FA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF FA LATE IN THE DAY. END OF THE WEEK LOOKS
ACTIVE AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE STILL EXISTS
QUITE A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES IN
REGARDS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH MAY GET LATER THIS WEEK. NET
RESULT IS THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT WILL JUST TREND PCPN AND PCPN TYPES WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING NIGHTTIME
HOURS WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOST OF PCPN AS
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG AT MAINLY
KPOU THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE AT KGFL.
OTHERWISE THE WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS MINIMAL AND SHOULD
POISE ANY AVIATION PROBLEMS.

DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE REGION WILL AT LEAST LIFT CEILINGS
PAST THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AND MITIGATE THE
FORMATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.


OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -RASN
MON-TUE NIGHT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...MVFR-VFR...CHC SHRA. (CHC SHSN EARLY)
THU...MVFR-VFR..CHC SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING WITH TIME...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CLIMBING
TOWARD 100 PERCENT. WHILE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
RATHER ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUR LAST ISSUANCE OF THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT AND FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION WILL BE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON PACKAGE ON NOVEMBER
14TH. OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL BE ISSUED TWICE DAILY ALL YEAR
ROUND. LEGITIMATE SPOT FORECASTS CAN BE REQUESTED AT ANY TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF HAS BEEN MAINLY AS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY RESPONSE EXPECTED ON STREAMS AND RIVERS THIS
WEEKEND. MAINLY DY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/HWJIV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 082306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
606 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW
ENGLAND TUES-WED. LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING
SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
605 PM: PWATS PLUS 1 SD THIS EVENING. AXIS OF PWATS RUC13 RH AXIS AND
ORGANIZED LINE OF MDT TO HEAVY SHOWERS S OF OKX ATTM SUGGESTS TO ME
THE GFS IS ONTO WHAT IS UNFOLDING. LOOKING FOR THUNDER TO DEVELOP BTWN
MTP AND BID 7PM-8PM.


540 PM: BASED ON NEW 18Z GFS PARAMETERS...5PM PRES FALL AXIS IN CT
RVR VALLEY....5PM SFC LOWS HUD VALLEY TO NJ AND DECENT SMC...PLUS
PROJECTED 35KT SSW 850 JET... KI 35...TT 53 AND SWI -1 AT MONTAUK AT
7PM... HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH AN ATTEMPT AT MORE DEFINED NEAR TERM
GRIDS.

BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS REORGANIZED CT RVR VALLEY TO S OF
FRG.

PRIMARY BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY SHOWERS THRU 630 PM SHUD BE CT RVR VALLEY
INTO ORH COUNTY AND MONADNOCKS.

BETWEEN 630 PM AND 10 PM. ACTION ORGANIZES BOS-PVD EWD. AMTS THIS
REGION MAY REACH .75 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT.

THUNDER: GFS CONTS BULLISH ON THUNDER DEVELOPING S OF RI BY 630 PM
AND SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE E MA CW BY 11 PM. MONITORING FOR DEVELOPMENT.
LOW PROB WE WILL NEED A STMT ON SMALL HAIL OR SMW WIND G35 KTS.

WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEN ON OUR OBSERVATIONS WAS AROUND
19Z...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IT LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE GFS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST
AND DROPS THE DEWPOINTS.  SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...LOW TEMPS WILL END UP AROUND 50 DEGREES...VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP.  IN SPITE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN.  STILL...THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.

TEMPS: FCST DIFF FROM CLIMO SHOWS ABV NORMAL SUNDAY THEN AOB NORMAL
MON-THU THEN MINS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT FRI.

MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR CWA....THEN
AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.

I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.

THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.

FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...SINCE
LATER INFORMATION DID NOT LEND MUCH SUPPORT TO THE LIGHT ICE/SNOW IDEA...
HAVE DEFERRED TO A DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND RAN A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST. PLS NOTE HOWEVER...THAT THE 12Z/8 GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT WAVE INTENSITY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...GENERAL CONTINUITY OF THE 4AM
KBOX POP FCST...HAVING LOWERED POPS WED. ALSO FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE A WET PERIOD. EVERY MODEL AND THE 12Z GFS ENS
ARE ADVERTISING LIKELY OR HIGHER RISK OF QPF. LEFTOVER BL CHILL MIGHT
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE TOUCH OF ICE NW HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW PROBABILITY
RISK ATTM.

WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN
THE PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS
FIELDS.

THE DAILIES BELOW

SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.

MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.

TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.

WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAYS.   WAA PCPN MAY BEGIN LATE THU?

FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. A PRECIPITATION EVENT IS A
STRONG LIKELIHOOD FRI OR FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE VSBYS ARE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEING THE
EXCEPTION - LIFR/...EXPECT THESE WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
FIRST IN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN IN FOG AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.

ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL RI AND EMASS BETWEEN 630 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.

MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.  OVER THE WESTERN MOST WATERS WINDS COULD SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL
INCREASE A BIT /5-7 FT/ AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/RLG 606
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 082239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
539 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW
ENGLAND TUES-WED. LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING
SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
540 PM: BASED ON NEW 18Z GFS PARAMETERS...5PM PRES FALL AXIS IN CT
RVR VALLEY....5PM SFC LOWS HUD VALLEY TO NJ AND DECENT SMC...PLUS
PROJECTED 35KT SSW 850 JET... KI 35...TT 53 AND SWI -1 AT MONTAUK AT
7PM... HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH AN ATTEMPT AT MORE DEFINED NEAR TERM
GRIDS.

BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS REORGANIZED CT RVR VALLEY TO S OF
FRG.

PRIMARY BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY SHOWERS THRU 630 PM SHUD BE CT RVR VALLEY
INTO ORH COUNTY AND MONADNOCKS.

BETWEEN 630 PM AND 10 PM. ACTION ORGANIZES BOS-PVD EWD. AMTS THIS
REGION MAY REACH .75 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT.

THUNDER: GFS CONTS BULLISH ON THUNDER DEVELOPING S OF RI BY 630 PM
AND SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE E MA CW BY 11 PM. MONITORING FOR DEVELOPMENT.
LOW PROB WE WILL NEED A STMT ON SMALL HAIL OR SMW WIND G35 KTS.

WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEN ON OUR OBSERVATIONS WAS AROUND
19Z...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IT LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE GFS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST
AND DROPS THE DEWPOINTS.  SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...LOW TEMPS WILL END UP AROUND 50 DEGREES...VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP.  IN SPITE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN.  STILL...THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.

TEMPS: FCST DIFF FROM CLIMO SHOWS ABV NORMAL SUNDAY THEN AOB NORMAL
MON-THU THEN MINS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT FRI.

MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR CWA....THEN
AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.

I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.

THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.

FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...SINCE
LATER INFORMATION DID NOT LEND MUCH SUPPORT TO THE LIGHT ICE/SNOW IDEA...
HAVE DEFERRED TO A DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND RAN A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST. PLS NOTE HOWEVER...THAT THE 12Z/8 GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT WAVE INTENSITY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...GENERAL CONTINUITY OF THE 4AM
KBOX POP FCST...HAVING LOWERED POPS WED. ALSO FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE A WET PERIOD. EVERY MODEL AND THE 12Z GFS ENS
ARE ADVERTISING LIKELY OR HIGHER RISK OF QPF. LEFTOVER BL CHILL MIGHT
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE TOUCH OF ICE NW HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW PROBABILITY
RISK ATTM.

WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN
THE PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS
FIELDS.

THE DAILIES BELOW

SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.

MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.

TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.

WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAYS.   WAA PCPN MAY BEGIN LATE THU?

FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. A PRECIPITATION EVENT IS A
STRONG LIKELIHOOD FRI OR FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE VSBYS ARE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEING THE
EXCEPTION - LIFR/...EXPECT THESE WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
FIRST IN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN IN FOG AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.

ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL RI AND EMASS BETWEEN 630 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.

MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.  OVER THE WESTERN MOST WATERS WINDS COULD SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL
INCREASE A BIT /5-7 FT/ AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/RLG 539
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 082155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
455 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW
ENGLAND TUES-WED. LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING
SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
415 PM: ADDED DENSE FOG PATCHES TO THE GRIDS FROM BID/WST EWD TO CHH-
ACK. FCST PRODUCTS UPDATED.

AT 4PM...PRES FALLS HAVE RECENTERED TO VCNTY NYC WITH SFC LOW IN THE
HUD VALLEY. BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS REORGANIZING WESTWARD
NOW TO TO CT RVR VALLEY TO S OF FRG. LEAD BAND OF SHOWERS AT 445PM
JUST ENTERING W RI.

PRIMARY BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY SHOWERS THRU 630 PM SHUD BE CT RVR VALLEY
INTO ORH COUNTY AND MONADNOCKS.

BETWEEN 630 PM AND 10 PM. ACTION ORGANIZES BOS-PVD EWD. AMTS THIS
REGION MAY REACH .75 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT.

THUNDER: GFS CONTS BULLISH ON THUNDER DEVELOPING S OF RI BY 630 PM
AND SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE E MA CW BY 11 PM. MONITORING FOR DEVELOPMENT.
LOW PROB WE WILL NEED A STMT ON SMALL HAIL OR SMW WIND G35 KTS.

WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEN ON OUR OBSERVATIONS WAS AROUND
19Z...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IT LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE GFS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

HAD A LITTLE BIT OF THINNING OF THE CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WAS ENOUGH TO AFFECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH.  LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WILL END THE
DAY WITH A HIGH AROUND 60...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED BACK UP AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST
AND DROPS THE DEWPOINTS.  SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...LOW TEMPS WILL END UP AROUND 50 DEGREES...VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP.  IN SPITE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN.  STILL...THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.

TEMPS: FCST DIFF FROM CLIMO SHOWS ABV NORMAL SUNDAY THEN AOB NORMAL
MON-THU THEN MINS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT FRI.

MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR CWA....THEN
AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.

I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.

THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.

FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...SINCE
LATER INFORMATION DID NOT LEND MUCH SUPPORT TO THE LIGHT ICE/SNOW IDEA...
HAVE DEFERRED TO A DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND RAN A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST. PLS NOTE HOWEVER...THAT THE 12Z/8 GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT WAVE INTENSITY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...GENERAL CONTINUITY OF THE 4AM
KBOX POP FCST...HAVING LOWERED POPS WED. ALSO FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE A WET PERIOD. EVERY MODEL AND THE 12Z GFS ENS
ARE ADVERTISING LIKELY OR HIGHER RISK OF QPF. LEFTOVER BL CHILL MIGHT
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE TOUCH OF ICE NW HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW PROBABILITY
RISK ATTM.

WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN
THE PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS
FIELDS.

THE DAILIES BELOW

SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.

MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.

TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.

WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAYS.   WAA PCPN MAY BEGIN LATE THU?

FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. A PRECIPITATION EVENT IS A
STRONG LIKELIHOOD FRI OR FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE VSBYS ARE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEING THE
EXCEPTION - LIFR/...EXPECT THESE WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
FIRST IN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN IN FOG AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.

ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL RI AND EMASS BETWEEN 630 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.

MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.  OVER THE WESTERN MOST WATERS WINDS COULD SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL
INCREASE A BIT /5-7 FT/ AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG
NEAR TERM...RLG 454
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG 454
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 082131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW
ENGLAND TUES-WED. LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING
SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
415 PM: ADDED DENSE FOG PATCHES TO THE GRIDS FROM BID/WST EWD TO CHH-
ACK. FCST UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

SHOWERS EXTEND FROM MANCHESTER NH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. THESE ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH AT
20Z WAS RUNNING FROM JUST EAST OF SARANAC LAKE NY DUE SOUTH TO JUST
WEST OF ALBANY AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEN ON OUR OBSERVATIONS WAS AROUND
19Z...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IT LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE GFS.  THIS PUTS THUNDER IN
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AROUND 23Z WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDER MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN.

HAD A LITTLE BIT OF THINNING OF THE CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WAS ENOUGH TO AFFECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH.  LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WILL END THE
DAY WITH A HIGH AROUND 60...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED BACK UP AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST
AND DROPS THE DEWPOINTS.  SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...LOW TEMPS WILL END UP AROUND 50 DEGREES...VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP.  IN SPITE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN.  STILL...THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.

MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR CWA....THEN
AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.

I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.

THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.

FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...SINCE
LATER INFORMATION DID NOT LEND MUCH SUPPORT TO THE LIGHT ICE/SNOW IDEA...
HAVE DEFERRED TO A DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND RAN A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST. PLS NOTE HOWEVER...THAT THE 12Z/8 GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT WAVE INTENSITY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...GENERAL CONTINUITY OF THE 4AM
KBOX POP FCST...HAVING LOWERED POPS WED. ALSO FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE A WET PERIOD. EVERY MODEL AND THE 12Z GFS ENS
ARE ADVERTISING LIKELY OR HIGHER RISK OF QPF. LEFTOVER BL CHILL MIGHT
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE TOUCH OF ICE NW HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW PROBABILITY
RISK ATTM.

WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN
THE PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS
FIELDS.

THE DAILIES BELOW

SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.

MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.

TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.

WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAYS.   WAA PCPN MAY BEGIN LATE THU?

FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. A PRECIPITATION EVENT IS A
STRONG LIKELIHOOD FRI OR FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE VSBYS ARE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEING THE
EXCEPTION - LIFR/...EXPECT THESE WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
FIRST IN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN IN FOG AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.

SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.

MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.  OVER THE WESTERN MOST WATERS WINDS COULD SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL
INCREASE A BIT /5-7 FT/ AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG
NEAR TERM...RLG 430
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG 430
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 082110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUES-WED.
LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS EXTEND FROM MANCHESTER NH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL CONNECTICUT.  THESE ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH AT 20Z WAS RUNNING FROM JUST EAST OF SARANAC LAKE NY DUE SOUTH
TO JUST WEST OF ALBANY AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEN ON OUR OBSERVATIONS WAS AROUND
19Z...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IT LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE GFS.  THIS PUTS THUNDER IN
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AROUND 23Z WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDER MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN.

HAD A LITTLE BIT OF THINNING OF THE CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WAS ENOUGH TO AFFECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH.  LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WILL END THE
DAY WITH A HIGH AROUND 60...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED BACK UP AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST
AND DROPS THE DEWPOINTS.  SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...LOW TEMPS WILL END UP AROUND 50 DEGREES...VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP.  IN SPITE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN.  STILL...THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRAFT NEW AFTERNOON LONG TERM FCST. IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF
CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.

MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR
CWA....THEN AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.

I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.

THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.

FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...UNLESS
OTHER INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WILL NOT
FIGHT THIS DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND AM GOING TO RUN A GENERALLY
DRY FORECAST.

FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...THIS MEANS KEEPING GENERAL CONTINUITY
OF THE 4AM KBOX POP FCST...MAYBE DRYING OUT WED? ALSO FRIDAY CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE A DAY THAT SHOULD BECOME WET. MAY RAISE POPS 10 PCT TO "LIKELY"
IN THE 4PM ISSUANCE DEPENDENT ON 12Z GFS ENS POPS AND THE UK/EC. ALREADY
THE 12Z GGEM IS COOL AND BECOMING WET AND OP GFS IS WET...CONTINUITY
FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS.

WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN THE
PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS FIELDS.

THE DAILIES BELOW

SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.

MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.

TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.

WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAY. STILL UNDECIDED HOW TO PLAY THE CURRENT POPS.

FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE VSBYS ARE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEING THE
EXCEPTION - LIFR/...EXPECT THESE WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
FIRST IN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN IN FOG AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.

SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.

MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.  OVER THE WESTERN MOST WATERS WINDS COULD SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL
INCREASE A BIT /5-7 FT/ AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB/DRAG
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/RLG

000
FXUS61 KALY 082041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
341 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT WARM WEATHER WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.  COLDER AIR COMBINING
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...INCLUDING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...TO THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP...WAS QUICKLY ROTATING
NORTHEAST FROM VA/W-VA BORDER. WHILE UPSTREAM RADAR ACTIVITY IS
MINIMAL...PER THE LATEST RUC...BAROCLINICITY WAS INCREASING ACROSS
THE HUDSON VALLEY AS FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
EAST. SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FLARE UP OF SHOWERS FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND BY MIDNIGHT WITH A
REDUCTION IN OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES STATE CONTINUES TO FILL IN AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...SLOW COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH A
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL COME INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS
OHIO/LAKE ERIE INTO ONTARIO WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER POTENT
AS THIS FEATURE ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ITS DOWNSTREAM EFFECT...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT
RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE PRECIP. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY BE INCREASING
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO AOA -4C...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LAKE DELTA T/S AROUND 13C...AND MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE AROUND 250-260. SO WILL HOLD ONTO LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND INTO HAMILTON COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. WHILE TIMING DIFFERENCE REMAINS IN THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE RATHER STRONG
AND WILL INCREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW TRAJECTORY FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT MIGHT
FIND A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT REDUCING POPS/QPF/PRECIP.

MONDAY WILL BE A CHILLY/BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOST OF THE ISSUES
PERTAINING TO LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AROUND COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO WE WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE TRICKY AS DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
FORECAST SOUNDING BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THAT WILL ALL CHANGE
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO FA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING ACROSS FA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF FA LATE IN THE DAY. END OF THE WEEK LOOKS
ACTIVE AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE STILL EXISTS
QUITE A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES IN
REGARDS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH MAY GET LATER THIS WEEK. NET
RESULT IS THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT WILL JUST TREND PCPN AND PCPN TYPES WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING NIGHTTIME
HOURS WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOST OF PCPN AS
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KALB. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME SCATTERED TOWARD EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND REMAINING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR-VFR...SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED...MVFR-VFR...CHC SHRA/SHSN.
THU...MVFR-IFR..SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING WITH TIME...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CLIMBING
TOWARD 100 PERCENT. WHILE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
RATHER ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF HAS BEEN MAINLY AS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY RESPONSE EXPECTED ON STREAMS AND RIVERS THIS
WEEKEND. MAINLY DY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...11

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 081806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
106 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUES-WED.
LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE HELPING TO MIX THE AIR A BIT...SO NOTING
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...THOUGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. STILL HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER
SE MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS S
WINDS FRESHEN A BIT. CAN SEE THE FRONT QUITE CLEARLY ON THE NE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AT 15Z... APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE STRETCHES
FROM AROUND SARANAC LAKE NY...UTICA NY...DOWN INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN MOVE STEADILY EAST BY EVENING. AFTER LOOKING AT
SHOWATER...K...AND LIFTED INDICES AND TOTAL TOTALS...AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS FURTHER UPSTREAM...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS WILL BE THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE LOWER
60S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...THOUGH. IF
THE SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH...MIGHT BE EVEN MILDER AT SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH TIMING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAINLY N OF THE
MASS PIKE. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1/4-1/2 INCH AT A FEW PLACES.

HAVE CARRIED LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DID TAKE A LOOK TO SEE ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PARAMETERS ARE CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AROUND 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO USED
A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS.
HAVE TEMPS FALLING TO THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST.

SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AROUND THIS LOW AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -3C TO -4C BY 00Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO START TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE
COOLER AIR WORKS IN.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SUN WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH EAST.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60...BUT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRAFT NEW AFTERNOON LONG TERM FCST. IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF
CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.

MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR
CWA....THEN AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.

I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.

THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.

FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...UNLESS
OTHER INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WILL NOT
FIGHT THIS DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND AM GOING TO RUN A GENERALLY
DRY FORECAST.

FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...THIS MEANS KEEPING GENERAL CONTINUITY
OF THE 4AM KBOX POP FCST...MAYBE DRYING OUT WED? ALSO FRIDAY CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE A DAY THAT SHOULD BECOME WET. MAY RAISE POPS 10 PCT TO "LIKELY"
IN THE 4PM ISSUANCE DEPENDENT ON 12Z GFS ENS POPS AND THE UK/EC. ALREADY
THE 12Z GGEM IS COOL AND BECOMING WET AND OP GFS IS WET...CONTINUITY
FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS.

WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN THE
PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS FIELDS.

THE DAILIES BELOW

SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.

MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.

TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.

WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAY. STILL UNDECIDED HOW TO PLAY THE CURRENT POPS.

FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...NOTING IMPROVING VSBYS MAINLY OVER CT VALLEY...BUT CIGS
REMAIN AT MVFR-IFR. IFR-LIFR REMAINS OVER EASTERN MA INTO RI AT 09Z.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CT VALLEY AS
FRONT APPROACHES.

THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...ISOLATED ESPECIALLY I 95 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E
AS PRECIP AND FRONT CLEAR THE EAST COAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.

MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS. VSBYS WILL START OFF IN THE 2 TO 4 NM RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT S-SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...W-SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG 105
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB/DRAG 105
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/EVT 105
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/EVT/RLG 105

000
FXUS61 KALY 081803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF FA ALREADY...HAVE JUST MADE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FOR POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ALSO WITH COLD
FRONT ALREADY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
40S BEHIND IT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST IF NOT
ALL OF FA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY. GENERALLY
HAVE TEMPS FALLING ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN TACT AS BULK OF
FA EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH
TOTAL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING A HALF INCH. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD END FAIRLY ABRUPTLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DARKENING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER ERN OH THIS
MORNING. THIS DRYING COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
NONETHELESS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING. EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW 0C AT H850 FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THE LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ARE STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY PM IN THE
VALLEYS WITH DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE...DESPITE H850 TEMPS OF -1C
TO -3C. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE ARE EXPECTING A GOOD LAKE
FETCH WITH THE W/SW FLOW COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY VIA BUFKIT PROFILES FROM KSYR.  PORTIONS OF THE WRN
ADIRONDACKS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE CATSKILLS AND
SRN GREENS MAY GET AN INCH OR LESS.

MON/MON NIGHT...A TASTE OF TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
SLIP TO -6C TO -8C AT 850 HPA. BRISK AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND 30S TO L40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM OH/PA OVERNIGHT TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NW WITH COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PICTURE HAS NOT GOTTEN CLEARER AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES IN
REGARDS TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON THE WEST COAST AND ITS
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH THE GFS PROGRESSIVE.
THERE IS QUITE A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLES IN REGARDS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH MAY GET OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW HPC`S LEAD AND GO WITH A BLENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KALB. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME SCATTERED TOWARD EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND REMAINING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR-VFR...SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED...MVFR-VFR...CHC SHRA/SHSN.
THU...MVFR-IFR..SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY
WITH WET FLAG CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH VALUES OF 60
TO 75 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT SUNDAY
MORNING. RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.  THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE W/SW AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTED QPF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
IS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON SOME
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEKEND.  LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...15
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 081647
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1147 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF FA ALREADY...HAVE JUST MADE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FOR POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ALSO WITH COLD
FRONT ALREADY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
40S BEHIND IT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST IF NOT
ALL OF FA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY. GENERALLY
HAVE TEMPS FALLING ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN TACT AS BULK OF
FA EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH
TOTAL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING A HALF INCH. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD END FAIRLY ABRUPTLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DARKENING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER ERN OH THIS
MORNING. THIS DRYING COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
NONETHELESS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING. EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW 0C AT H850 FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THE LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ARE STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY PM IN THE
VALLEYS WITH DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE...DESPITE H850 TEMPS OF -1C
TO -3C. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE ARE EXPECTING A GOOD LAKE
FETCH WITH THE W/SW FLOW COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY VIA BUFKIT PROFILES FROM KSYR.  PORTIONS OF THE WRN
ADIRONDACKS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE CATSKILLS AND
SRN GREENS MAY GET AN INCH OR LESS.

MON/MON NIGHT...A TASTE OF TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
SLIP TO -6C TO -8C AT 850 HPA. BRISK AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND 30S TO L40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM OH/PA OVERNIGHT TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NW WITH COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PICTURE HAS NOT GOTTEN CLEARER AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES IN
REGARDS TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON THE WEST COAST AND ITS
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH THE GFS PROGRESSIVE.
THERE IS QUITE A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLES IN REGARDS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH MAY GET OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW HPC`S LEAD AND GO WITH A BLENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN
NEW  YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. VFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAINING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR-VFR...SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT- WED...MVFR-VFR...CHC SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY
WITH WET FLAG CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH VALUES OF 60
TO 75 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT SUNDAY
MORNING. RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.  THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE W/SW AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTED QPF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
IS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON SOME
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEKEND.  LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...15
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 081639
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SHOWERS
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE HELPING TO MIX THE AIR A BIT...SO NOTING
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...THOUGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. STILL HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER
SE MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS S
WINDS FRESHEN A BIT. CAN SEE THE FRONT QUITE CLEARLY ON THE NE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AT 15Z... APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE STRETCHES
FROM AROUND SARANAC LAKE NY...UTICA NY...DOWN INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN MOVE STEADILY EAST BY EVENING. AFTER LOOKING AT
SHOWATER...K...AND LIFTED INDICES AND TOTAL TOTALS...AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS FURTHER UPSTREAM...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS WILL BE THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE LOWER
60S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...THOUGH. IF
THE SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH...MIGHT BE EVEN MILDER AT SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH TIMING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAINLY N OF THE
MASS PIKE. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1/4-1/2 INCH AT A FEW PLACES.

HAVE CARRIED LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DID TAKE A LOOK TO SEE ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PARAMETERS ARE CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AROUND 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO USED
A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS.
HAVE TEMPS FALLING TO THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST.

SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AROUND THIS LOW AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -3C TO -4C BY 00Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO START TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE
COOLER AIR WORKS IN.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SUN WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH EAST.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60...BUT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THREE FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN OUR LONG TERM WEATHER.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN DURING MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO MOST OF THE COLD AIR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF US. THE COLD AIR DESTABILIZATION WILL
AID IN MIXING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING
LAYER ARE FORECAST FOR AROUND 20 KNOTS. SO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY ARE REASONABLE. WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C TO -2C...MAX
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS A PROBLEM IT WOULD BE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TUESDAY MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 900 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT -2C TO
-3C...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FAR MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT
AT AN INVERTED TROF REACHING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z EC HOLDS A MUCH
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY EJECT A LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER BY 12-18 HOURS ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND BRING IN ONE BRIEF WEAK SLUG OF CHC POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THEN A LARGER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS FIELDS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THIS UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...NOTING IMPROVING VSBYS MAINLY OVER CT VALLEY...BUT CIGS
REMAIN AT MVFR-IFR. IFR-LIFR REMAINS OVER EASTERN MA INTO RI AT 09Z.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CT VALLEY AS
FRONT APPROACHES.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E
AS PRECIP AND FRONT CLEAR THE EAST COAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS. VSBYS WILL START OFF IN THE 2 TO 4 NM RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT S-SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...W-SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST
TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 081508
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SHOWERS
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS THAT WHILE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE IT CONTINUES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE HELPING TO MIX THE AIR A BIT...SO NOTING
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...THOUGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. STILL HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER
SE MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS S
WINDS FRESHEN A BIT. CAN SEE THE FRONT QUITE CLEARLY ON THE NE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AT 15Z... APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE STRETCHES
FROM AROUND SARANAC LAKE NY...UTICA NY...DOWN INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN MOVE STEADILY EAST BY EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE LOWER
60S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...THOUGH. IF
THE SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH...MIGHT BE EVEN MILDER AT SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH TIMING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAINLY N OF THE
MASS PIKE. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1/4-1/2 INCH AT A FEW PLACES.

HAVE CARRIED LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DID TAKE A LOOK TO SEE ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PARAMETERS ARE CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AROUND 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO USED
A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS.
HAVE TEMPS FALLING TO THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST.

SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AROUND THIS LOW AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -3C TO -4C BY 00Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO START TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE
COOLER AIR WORKS IN.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SUN WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH EAST.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60...BUT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THREE FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN OUR LONG TERM WEATHER.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN DURING MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO MOST OF THE COLD AIR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF US. THE COLD AIR DESTABILIZATION WILL
AID IN MIXING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING
LAYER ARE FORECAST FOR AROUND 20 KNOTS. SO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY ARE REASONABLE. WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C TO -2C...MAX
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS A PROBLEM IT WOULD BE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TUESDAY MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 900 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT -2C TO
-3C...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FAR MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT
AT AN INVERTED TROF REACHING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z EC HOLDS A MUCH
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY EJECT A LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER BY 12-18 HOURS ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND BRING IN ONE BRIEF WEAK SLUG OF CHC POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THEN A LARGER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS FIELDS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THIS UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...NOTING IMPROVING VSBYS MAINLY OVER CT VALLEY...BUT CIGS
REMAIN AT MVFR-IFR. IFR-LIFR REMAINS OVER EASTERN MA INTO RI AT 09Z.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CT VALLEY AS
FRONT APPROACHES.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E
AS PRECIP AND FRONT CLEAR THE EAST COAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS. VSBYS WILL START OFF IN THE 2 TO 4 NM RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT S-SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...W-SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST
TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 081335
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
835 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SHOWERS
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS THAT THE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION HAS ENDED BY
AROUND 09Z AS LIGHT S WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE OVER. THIS IS ALSO HELPING
TO MIX THE AIR A BIT...SO NOTING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THOUGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. STILL
HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER SE MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

EXPECT THE FOG TO BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE...THEN CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS S WINDS FRESHEN A BIT. CAN SEE THE
FRONT QUITE CLEARLY  ON THE NE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AT 09Z...
APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE FROM NEAR KSYR-KELM-KIPT.

EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN MOVE STEADILY EAST BY EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE LOWER
60S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...THOUGH. IF THE
SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH...MIGHT BE EVEN MILDER AT SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH TIMING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAINLY N OF THE
MASS PIKE. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1/4-1/2 INCH AT A FEW PLACES.

HAVE CARRIED LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DID TAKE A LOOK TO SEE ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PARAMETERS ARE CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AROUND 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO USED
A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS.
HAVE TEMPS FALLING TO THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST.

SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AROUND THIS LOW AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -3C TO -4C BY 00Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO START TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE
COOLER AIR WORKS IN.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SUN WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH EAST.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60...BUT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THREE FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN OUR LONG TERM WEATHER.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN DURING MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO MOST OF THE COLD AIR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF US. THE COLD AIR DESTABILIZATION WILL
AID IN MIXING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING
LAYER ARE FORECAST FOR AROUND 20 KNOTS. SO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY ARE REASONABLE. WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C TO -2C...MAX
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS A PROBLEM IT WOULD BE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TUESDAY MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 900 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT -2C TO
-3C...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FAR MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT
AT AN INVERTED TROF REACHING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z EC HOLDS A MUCH
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY EJECT A LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER BY 12-18 HOURS ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND BRING IN ONE BRIEF WEAK SLUG OF CHC POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THEN A LARGER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS FIELDS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THIS UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...NOTING IMPROVING VSBYS MAINLY OVER CT VALLEY...BUT CIGS
REMAIN AT MVFR-IFR. IFR-LIFR REMAINS OVER EASTERN MA INTO RI AT 09Z.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CT VALLEY AS
FRONT APPROACHES.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E
AS PRECIP AND FRONT CLEAR THE EAST COAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS AS SWELLS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 FT. VSBYS WILL START OFF AT
1 NM OR LESS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL IMPROVE IN
THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT S-SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...W-SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST
TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 081143
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WATER VAPOR/IR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD CUTOFF LOW
CENTERED NEAR WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY...THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OH VALLEY.  THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP HAS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS MORNING.  SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS BEEN AROUND OUR AREA...WHICH IS NOT BEING
DETECTED WELL BY THE RADAR. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS UNSEASONABLY
MILD AND HUMID.  WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM. THE BEST
MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NY.
A 30-35 KT H850 JET WILL TRANSPORT SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST 1000-850 MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER
LOCATIONS FROM ALY NORTH AND WEST BTWN 1800-0000 UTC. WE ARE
LOOKING FOR A GENERAL FEW TENTHS TO HALF INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. WE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER CHANCES DUE TO LITTLE OR NO
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THE GFS DOES SHOW
SHOWALTER STABILITY VALUES FALLING TO -1C TOWARDS 0000 UTC OVER
THE SRN TIER /MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/...SO A ROGUE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WE DON/T HAVE TO RISE MUCH DUE TO THE BALMY MORNING READINGS FOR
MAX TEMPS IN THE U50S TO L/M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S
OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD END FAIRLY ABRUPTLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DARKENING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER ERN OH THIS
MORNING. THIS DRYING COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
NONETHELESS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING. EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW 0C AT H850 FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THE LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ARE STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY PM IN THE
VALLEYS WITH DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE...DESPITE H850 TEMPS OF -1C
TO -3C. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE ARE EXPECTING A GOOD LAKE
FETCH WITH THE W/SW FLOW COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY VIA BUFKIT PROFILES FROM KSYR.  PORTIONS OF THE WRN
ADIRONDACKS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE CATSKILLS AND
SRN GREENS MAY GET AN INCH OR LESS.

MON/MON NIGHT...A TASTE OF TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
SLIP TO -6C TO -8C AT 850 HPA. BRISK AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND 30S TO L40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM OH/PA OVERNIGHT TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NW WITH COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PICTURE HAS NOT GOTTEN CLEARER AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES IN
REGARDS TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON THE WEST COAST AND ITS
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH THE GFS PROGRESSIVE.
THERE IS QUITE A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLES IN REGARDS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH MAY GET OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW HPC`S LEAD AND GO WITH A BLENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN
NEW  YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. VFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAINING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR-VFR...SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT- WED...MVFR-VFR...CHC SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY
WITH WET FLAG CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH VALUES OF 60
TO 75 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT SUNDAY
MORNING. RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.  THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE W/SW AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTED QPF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
IS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON SOME
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEKEND.  LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...15
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 080942
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SHOWERS
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS THAT THE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION HAS ENDED BY
AROUND 09Z AS LIGHT S WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE OVER. THIS IS ALSO HELPING
TO MIX THE AIR A BIT...SO NOTING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THOUGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. STILL
HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER SE MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

EXPECT THE FOG TO BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE...THEN CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS S WINDS FRESHEN A BIT. CAN SEE THE
FRONT QUITE CLEARLY  ON THE NE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AT 09Z...
APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE FROM NEAR KSYR-KELM-KIPT.

EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN MOVE STEADILY EAST BY EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE LOWER
60S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...THOUGH. IF THE
SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH...MIGHT BE EVEN MILDER AT SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH TIMING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAINLY N OF THE
MASS PIKE. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1/4-1/2 INCH AT A FEW PLACES.

HAVE CARRIED LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DID TAKE A LOOK TO SEE ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PARAMETERS ARE CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AROUND 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO USED
A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS.
HAVE TEMPS FALLING TO THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST.

SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AROUND THIS LOW AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -3C TO -4C BY 00Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO START TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE
COOLER AIR WORKS IN.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SUN WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH EAST.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60...BUT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THREE FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN OUR LONG TERM WEATHER.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN DURING MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO MOST OF THE COLD AIR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF US. THE COLD AIR DESTABILIZATION WILL
AID IN MIXING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING
LAYER ARE FORECAST FOR AROUND 20 KNOTS. SO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY ARE REASONABLE. WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C TO -2C...MAX
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS A PROBLEM IT WOULD BE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TUESDAY MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 900 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT -2C TO
-3C...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FAR MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT
AT AN INVERTED TROF REACHING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z EC HOLDS A MUCH
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY EJECT A LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER BY 12-18 HOURS ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND BRING IN ONE BRIEF WEAK SLUG OF CHC POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THEN A LARGER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS FIELDS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THIS UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...NOTING IMPROVING VSBYS MAINLY OVER CT VALLEY...BUT CIGS
REMAIN AT MVFR-IFR. IFR-LIFR REMAINS OVER EASTERN MA INTO RI AT 09Z.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CT VALLEY AS
FRONT APPROACHES.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E
AS PRECIP AND FRONT CLEAR THE EAST COAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS AS SWELLS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 FT. VSBYS WILL START OFF AT
1 NM OR LESS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL IMPROVE IN
THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT S-SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...W-SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 080921
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WATER VAPOR/IR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD CUTOFF LOW
CENTERED NEAR WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY...THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OH VALLEY.  THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP HAS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS MORNING.  SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS BEEN AROUND OUR AREA...WHICH IS NOT BEING
DETECTED WELL BY THE RADAR. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS UNSEASONABLY
MILD AND HUMID.  WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM. THE BEST
MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NY.
A 30-35 KT H850 JET WILL TRANSPORT SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST 1000-850 MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER
LOCATIONS FROM ALY NORTH AND WEST BTWN 1800-0000 UTC. WE ARE
LOOKING FOR A GENERAL FEW TENTHS TO HALF INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. WE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER CHANCES DUE TO LITTLE OR NO
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THE GFS DOES SHOW
SHOWALTER STABILITY VALUES FALLING TO -1C TOWARDS 0000 UTC OVER
THE SRN TIER /MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/...SO A ROGUE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WE DON/T HAVE TO RISE MUCH DUE TO THE BALMY MORNING READINGS FOR
MAX TEMPS IN THE U50S TO L/M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S
OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD END FAIRLY ABRUPTLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DARKENING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER ERN OH THIS
MORNING. THIS DRYING COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
NONETHELESS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING. EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW 0C AT H850 FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THE LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ARE STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY
PM IN THE VALLEYS WITH DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE...DESPITE H850 TEMPS OF
-1C TO -3C. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR FOR MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE ARE EXPECTING A GOOD LAKE
FETCH WITH THE W/SW FLOW COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY VIA BUFKIT PROFILES FROM KSYR.  PORTIONS OF THE WRN
ADIRONDACKS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE CATSKILLS AND
SRN GREENS MAY GET AN INCH OR LESS.

MON/MON NIGHT...A TASTE OF TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
SLIP TO -6C TO -8C AT 850 HPA. BRISK AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND 30S TO L40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM OH/PA OVERNIGHT TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NW WITH COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PICTURE HAS NOT GOTTEN CLEARER AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES IN
REGARDS TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON THE WEST COAST AND ITS
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH THE GFS PROGRESSIVE.
THERE IS QUITE A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLES IN REGARDS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH MAY GET OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW HPC`S LEAD AND GO WITH A BLENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN TOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRY OUT ABOVE 850 MB STILL VERY MOIST
IN LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUDS BLANKETING REGION. VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
BACK TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH VFR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TRIGGERING SHOWERS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR-VFR...SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT- WED...MVFR-VFR...CHC SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY
WITH WET FLAG CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH VALUES OF 60
TO 75 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT SUNDAY
MORNING. RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERY AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.  THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE W/SW AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTED QPF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
IS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON SOME
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEKEND.  LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...15
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 080854
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST
SAT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AT 04Z. NEXT
APPRECIABLE PRECIP SEEN IS OVER WESTERN NY STATE AND PA WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

DID KEEP IN PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...KEPT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND AREAS
OF FOG ON THE COAST WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER
SE MA AND THE S COAST ARE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE...BUT NOT BELOW 1/4 MILE
WHICH IS CRITERIA FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT MORE UPWARD. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DO ANYWHERE...MAYBE A DEGREE OR
TWO AT A FEW LOCALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE VERY MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.

A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO.  GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.

AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.

SAT NIGHT...AS HANDED OFF FROM THE SHORT TERM...CFP WITH ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS OF THUNDER...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN QPF WITH THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA DID NOT ARM ME WITH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER. NEW 18Z NAM IS ROBUST ON THUNDER RISK NOW
FOR SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AND FUTURE FORECASTS
MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS BUT THE UK/EC/GGEM/RGEM AMOUNTS ARE NOT
ROBUST SO HAVE REMAINED ON THE NULL SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC
YES/NO. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z GFS ENS HAVE LESS THAN .2 INCHES FOR
OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS GAVE ME ADDITIONAL PAUSE TO GO BEEFY. AS YOU
KNOW...THE GFS DID NOT PERFORM ADMIRABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
SNES DELAYED WED NIGHT-THU RAIN...SO MY HEAVIER RELIANCE ON ITS
ENSEMBLES AS A PREDICTOR FOR SAT NIGHT MAY BE MISPLACED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THREE FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...HIGH RPESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN OUR LONG TERM WEATHER.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN DURING MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS IN
SOUTEHRN NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO MOST OF THE COLD AIR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF US. THE COLD AIR DESTABILIZATION WILL
AID IN MIXING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING
LAYER ARE FORECAST FOR AROUND 20 KNOTS. SO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY ARE REASONABLE. WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C TO -2C...MAX
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS A PROBLEM IT WOULD BE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TUESDAY MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 900 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT -2C TO
-3C...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FAR MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT
AT AN INVERTED TROF REACHING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z EC HOLDS A MUCH
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY EJECT A LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER BY 12-18 HOURS ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND BRING IN ONE BRIEF WEAK SLUG OF CHC POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THEN A LARGER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS FIELDS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THIS UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS...THOUGH THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE BELOW 1/2SM THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY MAINLY OVER THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. KEPT VSBYS
BELOW 1 MILE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS BELOW 1/2 MILE. KEPT SMALL CRAFT GOING FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
FOR OPEN WATERS AND RI SOUND WITH CONTINUED HIGH SWELLS.

SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAYNIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 080559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWING EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION...OWING TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH STRONG INVERSION AROUND 925-950 MB. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
OF THESE CLOUDS ERODING ON THE WESTERN EDGE...ACROSS CENTRAL NYS AND
PA. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS...TO SEE IF CLEARING LINE CAN MOVE AS
FAR E AS EASTERN NY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST...OR REDEVELOP GIVEN DEVELOPING SE FLOW OVERNIGHT...AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE...WITH MINS MAINLY HOLDING BETWEEN 50-55 ACROSS MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING LINE EXTEND THIS FAR
E...THEN COOLER MINS WILL OCCUR...ALONG WITH RAPID FORMATION OF
DENSE FOG.

IN ADDITION...WE EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...ESP FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...AND
ACROSS S/E FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM W DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE OTHER THAN A BIT OF
DRIZZLE...ANY STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS
E...WITH ANY MORNING SHOWER THREAT LIMITED TO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY/DACKS...SOUTH INTO THE NE CATSKILLS. DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY
DENSE FOG FORMS...SOME BREAKS OF HAZY SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WHICH COULD HELP PROPEL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV MOS...AND
WARMER MET MOS. HOWEVER...SHOULD ANY MORE SUNSHINE OCCUR THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...EVEN WARMER TEMPS...POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 60S
OR EVEN APPROACHING 70...CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS WILL THEN
INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND HAVE
INDICATED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...HIGHEST TO THE N/W WHICH WILL
LIE CLOSER TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER NORTHERN EDGE OF NEGATIVE
850 LI/S APPROACH SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THUS...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED AS WELL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS AND PERHAPS
INTO THE TACONICS/NW CT.

SAT NT...SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM W TO E PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT MAY PROMOTE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...A
WEAKENING GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW SOME AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM LATE. FOR MINS...GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV
MOS.

SUN...MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE...WITH SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...YIELDING TO CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND IT...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...A
BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH WET SNOW LATER IN THE
DAY. FOR MAX TEMPS...DEEPER MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR MAXES TO REACH THE
MID 50S WITHIN THE VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN THE 40S.

SUN NT...STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THEREFORE HAVE INDICATED WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS WITHIN THE VALLEYS...WITH LIKELIES ACROSS THE DACKS. IN
FACT...SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...WHERE SOME SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW...ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE PICKED UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO...COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE PRECIP FREE...ALTHOUGH THE
LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE REGION COULD KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS MAY HELP
CLEAR THINGS OUT.

THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TIMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
OVER THE PACIFIC. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS MAY SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WED...THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND 12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DO NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE TIMED OR TRACKING THIS
WAY. STILL...WILL KEEP LOW CHCS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR PARTS OF THURSDAY AND FRI AS WELL...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEK...YET FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. THE ECMWF DELAYS THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM THAT THE GFS IS
SHOWING FOR TUESDAY FOR MORE OF A THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DURING THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. THE GFS SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK ACTUALLY CARVES
OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHC POPS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. LOOKING AHEAD...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES SHOW
A MORE BIG COOLDOWN LIKE THE GFS IS INDICATING BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN TOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRY OUT ABOVE 850 MB STILL VERY MOIST
IN LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUDS BLANKETING REGION. VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
BACK TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH VFR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TRIGGERING SHOWERS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR-VFR...SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT- WED...MVFR-VFR...CHC SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWING EAST.

WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE RH WILL INCREASE TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE TO
65-75 PERCENT ON SAT. THE RH WILL THEN INCREASE TO 90-100 PERCENT
AGAIN SAT NT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SE TO S AT 10 TO
20 MPH BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE W AT
5-10 MPH FOR SAT NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED SAT INTO
SAT NT. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LATE
SAT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBOX 080437
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1135 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST
SAT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AT 04Z. NEXT
APPRECIABLE PRECIP SEEN IS OVER WESTERN NY STATE AND PA WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

DID KEEP IN PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...KEPT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND AREAS
OF FOG ON THE COAST WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER
SE MA AND THE S COAST ARE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE...BUT NOT BELOW 1/4 MILE
WHICH IS CRITERIA FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT MORE UPWARD. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DO ANYWHERE...MAYBE A DEGREE OR
TWO AT A FEW LOCALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE VERY MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.

A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO.  GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.

AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE

SAT NIGHT...A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY SHOWER
AMOUNTS.

SUN-TUE...ABOVE AVERAGE.

WED-FRI...BELOW AVERAGE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM...DO WE HAVE TWO WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE...WED AND AGAIN FRI...OR ONE LARGER ONE NEXT FRI.

THE DAILIES...
SAT NIGHT...AS HANDED OFF FROM THE SHORT TERM...CFP WITH ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS OF THUNDER...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN QPF WITH THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA DID NOT ARM ME WITH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER. NEW 18Z NAM IS ROBUST ON THUNDER RISK NOW
FOR SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AND FUTURE FORECASTS
MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS BUT THE UK/EC/GGEM/RGEM AMOUNTS ARE NOT
ROBUST SO HAVE REMAINED ON THE NULL SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC
YES/NO. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z GFS ENS HAVE LESS THAN .2 INCHES FOR
OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS GAVE ME ADDITIONAL PAUSE TO GO BEEFY. AS YOU
KNOW...THE GFS DID NOT PERFORM ADMIRABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
SNES DELAYED WED NIGHT-THU RAIN...SO MY HEAVIER RELIANCE ON ITS
ENSEMBLES AS A PREDICTOR FOR SAT NIGHT MAY BE MISPLACED.

SUN-TUE...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WITH GOOD HFC EARLY MON HAS CAUSED ME
TO RAISE POPS A BIT IN NW MA AND SW NH TO BETTER MATCH MULTI MODEL
LIGHT QPF FOR THE PERIOD 06Z-18Z MONDAY. OTRW A NICE SUNDAY WITH
COLDER DAYTIMES MON AND TUE. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SC EACH DAY.
TEMPS ARE 50/50 MERGE OF 4AM KBOX FCST AND 12Z/7 GFS MOSGUIDE...
WHICH IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL SFC TT AND 850
TEMPS/ 1000-850 THICKNESS.

WED-FRI...ITS GOING PRECIPITATE 8 TO 24 HOURS HEREIN. THAT I AM
CATEGORICALLY /80 PERCENT/ SURE OF. JUST DONT KNOW WHICH PERIODS.
YDY CUT THE POPS FOR WED DUE TO MULTIMODEL AND GFS ENS AGREEMENT ON
NO WED EVENT.

LAST NIGHT AND TODAY ITS BACK...THO WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
IF PRECIP OCCURS WED AND THU... THERE A GOOD CHANCE OF ICE OR A BIT
OF SNOW IN THE NW INTERIOR...ESSENTIALLY N AND W OF AN ASH-FIT-ORH-
BDL LINE. HOW EXTENSIVE AND MEANINGFUL? I THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
AVAILABLE MULTI MODEL INFORMATION TO SUGGEST A COLD PCPN EVENT AT
ONSET. THE 12Z GFS ENS HAS .6 OVER ALL OF SNE BY FRI AFTN. DID NOT
BOOST POPS TO LIKELY DAY 7 BUT NEXT FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A DAY FOR A
GENERAL RAIN OR SHOWERY EVENT.

HWO HAS THE HAZARDS OUTLINED...BOTH ON VERY LOW PROB THUNDER COASTAL
WATERS SAT NIGHT AND A LOW PROB HAZARDOUS ICE/SNOW EVENT.

THE WARM ANOMALY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SINK TO AOB NORMAL DAYTIMES MON
THRU FRI OF NEXT WEEK AND THE NIGHT TIMES AOB MON-WED AND THEN
WARMING THU AND FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS...THOUGH THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE BELOW 1/2SM THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY MAINLY OVER THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. KEPT VSBYS
BELOW 1 MILE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS BELOW 1/2 MILE. KEPT SMALL CRAFT GOING FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
FOR OPEN WATERS AND RI SOUND WITH CONTINUED HIGH SWELLS.

SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

SCA HEADLINE FOR SEAS WAS EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MORE THAN
LIKELY THE SCA WILL CONTINUE IN THE OPEN WATERS S OF NEW ENGLAND SUN
INTO TUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 072345
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWING EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION...OWING TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH STRONG INVERSION AROUND 925-950 MB. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
OF THESE CLOUDS ERODING ON THE WESTERN EDGE...ACROSS CENTRAL NYS AND
PA. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS...TO SEE IF CLEARING LINE CAN MOVE AS
FAR E AS EASTERN NY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST...OR REDEVELOP GIVEN DEVELOPING SE FLOW OVERNIGHT...AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE...WITH MINS MAINLY HOLDING BETWEEN 50-55 ACROSS MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING LINE EXTEND THIS FAR
E...THEN COOLER MINS WILL OCCUR...ALONG WITH RAPID FORMATION OF
DENSE FOG.

IN ADDITION...WE EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...ESP FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...AND
ACROSS S/E FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM W DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE OTHER THAN A BIT OF
DRIZZLE...ANY STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS
E...WITH ANY MORNING SHOWER THREAT LIMITED TO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY/DACKS...SOUTH INTO THE NE CATSKILLS. DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY
DENSE FOG FORMS...SOME BREAKS OF HAZY SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WHICH COULD HELP PROPEL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV MOS...AND
WARMER MET MOS. HOWEVER...SHOULD ANY MORE SUNSHINE OCCUR THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...EVEN WARMER TEMPS...POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 60S
OR EVEN APPROACHING 70...CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS WILL THEN
INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND HAVE
INDICATED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...HIGHEST TO THE N/W WHICH WILL
LIE CLOSER TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER NORTHERN EDGE OF NEGATIVE
850 LI/S APPROACH SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THUS...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED AS WELL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS AND PERHAPS
INTO THE TACONICS/NW CT.

SAT NT...SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM W TO E PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT MAY PROMOTE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...A
WEAKENING GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW SOME AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM LATE. FOR MINS...GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV
MOS.

SUN...MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE...WITH SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...YIELDING TO CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND IT...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...A
BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH WET SNOW LATER IN THE
DAY. FOR MAX TEMPS...DEEPER MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR MAXES TO REACH THE
MID 50S WITHIN THE VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN THE 40S.

SUN NT...STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THEREFORE HAVE INDICATED WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS WITHIN THE VALLEYS...WITH LIKELIES ACROSS THE DACKS. IN
FACT...SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...WHERE SOME SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW...ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE PICKED UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO...COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE PRECIP FREE...ALTHOUGH THE
LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE REGION COULD KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS MAY HELP
CLEAR THINGS OUT.

THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TIMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
OVER THE PACIFIC. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS MAY SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WED...THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND 12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DO NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE TIMED OR TRACKING THIS
WAY. STILL...WILL KEEP LOW CHCS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR PARTS OF THURSDAY AND FRI AS WELL...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEK...YET FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. THE ECMWF DELAYS THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM THAT THE GFS IS
SHOWING FOR TUESDAY FOR MORE OF A THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DURING THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. THE GFS SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK ACTUALLY CARVES
OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHC POPS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. LOOKING AHEAD...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES SHOW
A MORE BIG COOLDOWN LIKE THE GFS IS INDICATING BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...KEEPING
VFR/MVFR CIGS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BECOMING
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND BE NEAR
THE HUDSON VALLEY AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE MORNING...ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR AS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE CIGS/VSBYS TO BECOME
MVFR/VFR...BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AFTER 15Z-17Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR-VFR...SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/RASN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...MVFR/VFR...CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWING EAST.

WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE RH WILL INCREASE TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE TO
65-75 PERCENT ON SAT. THE RH WILL THEN INCREASE TO 90-100 PERCENT
AGAIN SAT NT.

THE HAINES INDICES WILL REACH 3 SAT AFTERNOON...AND 3 TO 4 FOR SUN
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SE TO S AT 10 TO
20 MPH BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE W AT
5-10 MPH FOR SAT NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED SAT INTO
SAT NT. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LATE
SAT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KGS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBOX 072218
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
518 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST SAT...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
504 PM GRID UPDATE TO RUN DENSE FOG ..ONE QUARTER MILE VSBY.. VCNTY CAPE
COD TO ACK AND BID THROUGH 02Z. GRIDS POSTING. CWF/ZFP AND ALL SAFS
UPDATED.

NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF
FINAL EXITS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA - BOSTON/CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
SUPPORT VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S. THUS...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SO EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP A BIT LATER ACROSS THIS AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF TONIGHT AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN
THE 50S AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVECTION. SO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.

A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO.  GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.

AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE

SAT NIGHT...A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY SHOWER AMOUNTS.

SUN-TUE...ABOVE AVERAGE.

WED-FRI...BELOW AVERAGE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM...DO WE HAVE TWO WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE... WED AND AGAIN FRI.... OR ONE LARGER ONE NEXT FRI.


THE DAILIES...
SAT NIGHT...AS HANDED OFF FROM THE SHORT TERM...CFP WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS OF THUNDER...
BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF WITH
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA DID NOT ARM ME WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER. NEW 18Z NAM
IS ROBUST ON THUNDER RISK NOW FOR SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS BUT THE UK/EC/GGEM
/RGEM AMOUNTS ARE NOT ROBUST SO HAVE REMAINED ON THE NULL SIDE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC YES/NO. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z GFS ENS HAVE LESS THAN .2
INCHES FOR OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS GAVE ME ADDITIONAL PAUSE TO GO BEEFY.
AS YOU KNOW...THE GFS DID NOT PERFORM ADMIRABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
SNES DELAYED WED NIGHT-THU RAIN...SO MY HEAVIER RELIANCE ON ITS ENSEMBLES
AS A PREDICTOR FOR SAT NIGHT MAY BE MISPLACED.

SUN-TUE...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WITH GOOD HFC EARLY MON HAS CAUSED ME TO
RAISE POPS A BIT IN NW MA AND SW NH TO BETTER MATCH MULTI MODEL LIGHT
QPF FOR THE PERIOD 06Z -18Z MONDAY. OTRW A NICE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
DAYTIMES MON AND TUE. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SC EACH DAY. TEMPS ARE
50/50 MERGE OF 4AM KBOX FCST AND 12Z/7 GFS MOSGUIDE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED WELL BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL SFC TT AND 850 TEMPS/
1000-850 THICKNESS.

WED-FRI...ITS GOING PRECIPITATE 8 TO 24 HOURS HEREIN. THAT I AM
CATEGORICALLY /80 PERCENT/ SURE OF. JUST DONT KNOW WHICH PERIODS.
YDY CUT THE POPS FOR WED DUE TO MULTIMODEL AND GFS ENS AGREEMENT ON
NO WED EVENT.

LAST NIGHT AND TODAY ITS BACK...THO WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
IF PRECIP OCCURS WED AND THU... THERE A GOOD CHANCE OF ICE OR A BIT
OF SNOW IN THE NW INTERIOR...ESSENTIALLY N AND W OF AN ASH-FIT-ORH-
BDL LINE. HOW EXTENSIVE AND MEANINGFUL? I THINK THERE IS ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MULTI MODEL INFORMATION TO SUGGEST A COLD PCPN EVENT AT ONSET. THE
12Z GFS ENS HAS .6 OVER ALL OF SNE BY FRI AFTN. DID NOT BOOST POPS TO
LIKELY DAY 7 BUT NEXT FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A DAY FOR A GENERAL RAIN
OR SHOWERY EVENT.

HWO HAS THE HAZARDS OUTLINED...BOTH ON VERY LOW PROB THUNDER COASTAL
WATERS SAT NIGHT AND A LOW PROB HAZARDOUS ICE/SNOW EVENT.

THE WARM ANOMALY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SINK TO AOB NORMAL DAYTIMES MON
THRU FRI OF NEXT WEEK AND THE NIGHT TIMES AOB MON-WED AND THEN
WARMING THU AND FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT MVFR BDL/BAF/ORH/MHT.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE BOS/HYA AND ACK ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM.

SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE POOR VSBY IN DENSE FOG EASTERN MA WATERS.
ELSEWHERE VSBY LOWERING TO 1 NM OR LESS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SE SWELLS OF 5-8 FT.

SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

SCA HEADLINE FOR SEAS WAS EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MORE THAN
LIKELY THE SCA WILL CONTINUE IN THE OPEN WATERS S OF NEW ENGLAND SUN
INTO TUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DRAG 517
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DRAG 517
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 072150
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST SAT...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF
FINAL EXITS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA - BOSTON/CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
SUPPORT VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S. THUS...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SO EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP A BIT LATER ACROSS THIS AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF TONIGHT AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN
THE 50S AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVECTION. SO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.

A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO.  GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.

AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE

SAT NIGHT...A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY SHOWER AMOUNTS.

SUN-TUE...ABOVE AVERAGE.

WED-FRI...BELOW AVERAGE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM...DO WE HAVE TWO WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE... WED AND AGAIN FRI.... OR ONE LARGER ONE NEXT FRI.


THE DAILIES...
SAT NIGHT...AS HANDED OFF FROM THE SHORT TERM...CFP WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS OF THUNDER...
BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF WITH
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA DID NOT ARM ME WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER. NEW 18Z NAM
IS ROBUST ON THUNDER RISK NOW FOR SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS BUT THE UK/EC/GGEM
/RGEM AMOUNTS ARE NOT ROBUST SO HAVE REMAINED ON THE NULL SIDE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC YES/NO. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z GFS ENS HAVE LESS THAN .2
INCHES FOR OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS GAVE ME ADDITIONAL PAUSE TO GO BEEFY.
AS YOU KNOW...THE GFS DID NOT PERFORM ADMIRABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
SNES DELAYED WED NIGHT-THU RAIN...SO MY HEAVIER RELIANCE ON ITS ENSEMBLES
AS A PREDICTOR FOR SAT NIGHT MAY BE MISPLACED.

SUN-TUE...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WITH GOOD HFC EARLY MON HAS CAUSED ME TO
RAISE POPS A BIT IN NW MA AND SW NH TO BETTER MATCH MULTI MODEL LIGHT
QPF FOR THE PERIOD 06Z -18Z MONDAY. OTRW A NICE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
DAYTIMES MON AND TUE. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SC EACH DAY. TEMPS ARE
50/50 MERGE OF 4AM KBOX FCST AND 12Z/7 GFS MOSGUIDE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED WELL BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL SFC TT AND 850 TEMPS/
1000-850 THICKNESS.

WED-FRI...ITS GOING PRECIPITATE 8 TO 24 HOURS HEREIN. THAT I AM
CATEGORICALLY /80 PERCENT/ SURE OF. JUST DONT KNOW WHICH PERIODS.
YDY CUT THE POPS FOR WED DUE TO MULTIMODEL AND GFS ENS AGREEMENT ON
NO WED EVENT.

LAST NIGHT AND TODAY ITS BACK...THO WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
IF PRECIP OCCURS WED AND THU... THERE A GOOD CHANCE OF ICE OR A BIT
OF SNOW IN THE NW INTERIOR...ESSENTIALLY N AND W OF AN ASH-FIT-ORH-
BDL LINE. HOW EXTENSIVE AND MEANINGFUL? I THINK THERE IS ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MULTI MODEL INFORMATION TO SUGGEST A COLD PCPN EVENT AT ONSET. THE
12Z GFS ENS HAS .6 OVER ALL OF SNE BY FRI AFTN. DID NOT BOOST POPS TO
LIKELY DAY 7 BUT NEXT FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A DAY FOR A GENERAL RAIN
OR SHOWERY EVENT.

HWO HAS THE HAZARDS OUTLINED...BOTH ON VERY LOW PROB THUNDER COASTAL
WATERS SAT NIGHT AND A LOW PROB HAZARDOUS ICE/SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT MVFR BDL/BAF/ORH/MHT.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE BOS/HYA AND ACK ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM.

SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE POOR VSBY IN DENSE FOG EASTERN MA WATERS.
ELSEWHERE VSBY LOWERING TO 1 NM OR LESS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SE SWELLS OF 5-8 FT.

SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

SCA HEADLINE FOR SEAS WAS EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MORE THAN
LIKELY THE SCA WILL CONTINUE IN THE OPEN WATERS S OF NEW ENGLAND SUN
INTO TUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 072137
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST SAT...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF
FINAL EXITS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA - BOSTON/CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
SUPPORT VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S. THUS...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SO EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP A BIT LATER ACROSS THIS AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF TONIGHT AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN
THE 50S AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVECTION. SO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.

A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO.  GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.

AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE

SAT NIGHT...A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY SHOWER AMOUNTS.

SUN-TUE...ABOVE AVERAGE.

WED-FRI...BELOW AVERAGE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM...DO WE HAVE TWO WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE... WED AND AGAIN FRI.... OR ONE LARGER ONE NEXT FRI.


THE DAILIES...
SAT NIGHT...AS HANDED OFF FROM THE SHORT TERM...CFP WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS OF THUNDER...
BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF WITH
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA DID NOT ARM ME WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER. NEW 18Z NAM
IS ROBUST ON THUNDER RISK NOW FOR SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS BUT THE UK/EC/GGEM
/RGEM AMOUNTS ARE NOT ROBUST SO HAVE REMAINED ON THE NULL SIDE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC YES/NO. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z GFS ENS HAVE LESS THAN .2
INCHES FOR OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS GAVE ME ADDITIONAL PAUSE TO GO BEEFY.
AS YOU KNOW...THE GFS DID NOT PERFORM ADMIRABLY WED AND THURSDAY FOR
SNE...SO MY HEAVIER RELIANCE ON ITS ENSEMBLES AS A PREDICTOR FOR SAT
NIGHT MAY BE MISPLACED.

SUN-TUE...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WITH GOOD HFC EARLY MON HAS CAUSED ME TO
RAISE POPS A BIT IN NW MA AND SW NH TO BETTER MATCH MULTI MODEL
LIGHT QPF FOR THE PERIOD 06Z -18Z MONDAY. OTRW A NICE SUNDAY WITH
COLDER DAYTIMES MON AND TUE.  AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SC EACH DAY.


WED-FRI...ITS GOING PRECIPITATE. THAT I AM CATEGORICALLY /80 PERCENT/
SURE OF. JUST DONT KNOW WHICH PERIODS. YDY CUT THE POPS FOR WED DUE
TO MULTIMODEL AND GFS ENS AGREEMENT ON NO WED EVENT. LAST NIGHT AND
TODAY ITS BACK...THO WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. IF PRECIP
OCCURS WED AND THU... THERE A GOOD CHANCE OF ICE OR A BIT OF SNOW IN
THE NW INTERIOR...ESSENTIALLY N AND W OF AN ASH-FIT-ORH-BDL LINE. HOW
EXTENSIVE AND MEANINGFUL I HAVE NO CLUE...BUT I THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
AVAILABLE INFORMATION TO SUGGEST A COLD PCPN EVENT AT ONSET. THE 12Z
GFS ENS HAS .6 OVER ALL OF SNE BY FRI AFTN. DID NOT BOOST POPS TO LIKELY
DAY 7 BUT NEXT FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A DAY FOR A RAIN EVENT.

STAY TUNED FOR DEVELOPMENTS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR A POSSIBLE
ADVISORY PRECIPITATION EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT MVFR BDL/BAF/ORH/MHT.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE BOS/HYA AND ACK ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM.

SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE POOR VSBY IN DENSE FOG EASTERN MA WATERS.
ELSEWHERE VSBY LOWERING TO 1 NM OR LESS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SE SWELLS OF 5-8 FT.

SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA

000
FXUS61 KALY 072126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWING EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION...OWING TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH STRONG INVERSION AROUND 925-950 MB. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
OF THESE CLOUDS ERODING ON THE WESTERN EDGE...ACROSS CENTRAL NYS AND
PA. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS...TO SEE IF CLEARING LINE CAN MOVE AS
FAR E AS EASTERN NY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST...OR REDEVELOP GIVEN DEVELOPING SE FLOW OVERNIGHT...AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE...WITH MINS MAINLY HOLDING BETWEEN 50-55 ACROSS MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING LINE EXTEND THIS FAR
E...THEN COOLER MINS WILL OCCUR...ALONG WITH RAPID FORMATION OF
DENSE FOG.

IN ADDITION...WE EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...ESP FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...AND
ACROSS S/E FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM W DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE OTHER THAN A BIT OF
DRIZZLE...ANY STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS
E...WITH ANY MORNING SHOWER THREAT LIMITED TO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY/DACKS...SOUTH INTO THE NE CATSKILLS. DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY
DENSE FOG FORMS...SOME BREAKS OF HAZY SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WHICH COULD HELP PROPEL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV MOS...AND
WARMER MET MOS. HOWEVER...SHOULD ANY MORE SUNSHINE OCCUR THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...EVEN WARMER TEMPS...POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 60S
OR EVEN APPROACHING 70...CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS WILL THEN
INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND HAVE
INDICATED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...HIGHEST TO THE N/W WHICH WILL
LIE CLOSER TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER NORTHERN EDGE OF NEGATIVE
850 LI/S APPROACH SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THUS...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED AS WELL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS AND PERHAPS
INTO THE TACONICS/NW CT.

SAT NT...SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM W TO E PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT MAY PROMOTE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...A
WEAKENING GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW SOME AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM LATE. FOR MINS...GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV
MOS.

SUN...MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE...WITH SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...YIELDING TO CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND IT...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...A
BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH WET SNOW LATER IN THE
DAY. FOR MAX TEMPS...DEEPER MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR MAXES TO REACH THE
MID 50S WITHIN THE VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN THE 40S.

SUN NT...STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THEREFORE HAVE INDICATED WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS WITHIN THE VALLEYS...WITH LIKELIES ACROSS THE DACKS. IN
FACT...SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...WHERE SOME SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW...ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE PICKED UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO...COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE PRECIP FREE...ALTHOUGH THE
LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE REGION COULD KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS MAY HELP
CLEAR THINGS OUT.

THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TIMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
OVER THE PACIFIC. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS MAY SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WED...THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND 12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DO NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE TIMED OR TRACKING THIS
WAY. STILL...WILL KEEP LOW CHCS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR PARTS OF THURSDAY AND FRI AS WELL...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEK...YET FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. THE ECMWF DELAYS THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM THAT THE GFS IS
SHOWING FOR TUESDAY FOR MORE OF A THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DURING THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. THE GFS SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK ACTUALLY CARVES
OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHC POPS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. LOOKING AHEAD...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES SHOW
A MORE BIG COOLDOWN LIKE THE GFS IS INDICATING BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...KEEPING
MVFR CIGS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE AS WINDS SUBSIDE. KGFL VSBYS WILL DECREASE TO IFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...KALB AND KPOU AROUND 06Z. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING PRECIP TO ALL TERMINALS IN THE
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR-VFR...SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/RASN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...MVFR/VFR...CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWING EAST.

WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE RH WILL INCREASE TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE TO
65-75 PERCENT ON SAT. THE RH WILL THEN INCREASE TO 90-100 PERCENT
AGAIN SAT NT.

THE HAINES INDICES WILL REACH 3 SAT AFTERNOON...AND 3 TO 4 FOR SUN
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SE TO S AT 10 TO
20 MPH BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE W AT
5-10 MPH FOR SAT NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED SAT INTO
SAT NT. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LATE
SAT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KGS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBOX 072049
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST SAT...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF
FINAL EXITS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA - BOSTON/CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
SUPPORT VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S. THUS...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SO EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP A BIT LATER ACROSS THIS AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF TONIGHT AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN
THE 50S AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVECTION. SO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.

A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO.  GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILTY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.

AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PULLING 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PW
VALUES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER UP...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
FROPA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS SO
THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH JUST
SHOWERS.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVE IS IN TURN BEING PUSHED
ALONG BY A 150 KNOT JET. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING MIXING WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRMER CONTROL TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLEARER
WEATHER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL FORM FROM THAT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL
EJECT TOWARD US. THE GFS SLAMS THE LOW NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MURKIER...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
DIGGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. WE
SLOWLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT MVFR BDL/BAF/ORH/MHT.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE BOS/HYA AND ACK ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM.

SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE POOR VSBY IN DENSE FOG EASTERN MA WATERS.
ELSEWHERE VSBY LOWERING TO 1 NM OR LESS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SE SWELLS OF 5-8 FT.

SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA

000
FXUS61 KALY 071749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.  A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY...WITH
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS ACCORDING
TO HOURLY TRENDS. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
THE MAX TEMPS...ESP FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN
VT...WHERE TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER/MID 60S. IN THESE
REGIONS...EXPECT MAXES TO REACH MID/UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 60S. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH...WITH SOME
SLIGHT EROSION OCCURRING WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...WHERE SKIES HAVE
BECOME MAINLY SUNNY. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...AND IN AREAS OF THE DACKS WHICH HAVE ALREADY CLEARED...THE
STRONG INVERSION AND MOIST LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND
THIS AFTERNOON THAN SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRI NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS BETWIXT THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH
QUICKLY WITH ANY PARTIAL CLEARING ENDING. WE STARTED THE EVENING OUT
DRY...BUT INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE VALUES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPSTREAM CUTOFF. WE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST. THE GENERAL TIMING ON THE PCPN WILL
BE TOWARDS 09Z-12Z FOR THE WRN ZONES. A BALMY S/SW WILL PERSIST
KEEPING MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ALLOWING SOME GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE TO 1-1.25". 850 HPA THETA-E VALUES RISE TO ABOUT 315K OVER THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z...AND TUMBLE TO 292K OVER WRN NY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE. THE REGION MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO THE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK...WHICH MAY AID IN ENHANCING THE
RAINFALL OVER THE W/NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
DEEP SHEAR...BUT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO WE DID NOT ADD ANY
THUNDER AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...WE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
VALUES SAT PM...EXCEPT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER
CATSKILLS...WHERE WE KEPT LIKELY VALUES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE EVENING. STRONG 850
HPA COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERNIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 0C OR
COLDER WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND 0600 UTC. LOW TEMPS
WILL START TRENDING BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID AND U30S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...GREAT LAKES CUTOFF LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION
WITH MULTIPLE VORT MAXES APPROACHING IN W/SW FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE
OF A SHOWER ON SUN PM DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
BE W/NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHERE SOME ERN GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE MAY BE TAPPED. MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND H850 TEMPS OF
-2C TO -3C WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 40S IN THE MTNS/HILLS. SOME SCT -SHSNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE WRN ADIRONDACKS...WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS NRN NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK VIA THE GFS/NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHICH
EVOLVES TOWARD A MORE FULLY PHASED MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW
WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING AND
STRENGTHEN DIFFERS IN REGARDS TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON
THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
PLUS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ENTERING THE WEST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH AN ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS IN
BETWEEN. FOLLOWED HPC LEAD WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WILL STILL HAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION MONDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE SOME BE THE END OF THE WEEK AS REGION WILL BE UNDER BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...KEEPING
MVFR CIGS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE AS WINDS SUBSIDE. KGFL VSBYS WILL DECREASE TO IFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...KALB AND KPOU AROUND 06Z. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING PRECIP TO ALL TERMINALS IN THE
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR-VFR...SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/RASN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...MVFR/VFR...CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 10 MPH TODAY VARYING FROM THE NORTH
TO SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT
5-10 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 60 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE
TO 90-100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
65-75 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT SHOT OF QPF WITH COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED. FOLLOWING THAT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...KGS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 071722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.  A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY...WITH
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS ACCORDING
TO HOURLY TRENDS. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
THE MAX TEMPS...ESP FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN
VT...WHERE TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER/MID 60S. IN THESE
REGIONS...EXPECT MAXES TO REACH MID/UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 60S. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH...WITH SOME
SLIGHT EROSION OCCURRING WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...WHERE SKIES HAVE
BECOME MAINLY SUNNY. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...AND IN AREAS OF THE DACKS WHICH HAVE ALREADY CLEARED...THE
STRONG INVERSION AND MOIST LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND
THIS AFTERNOON THAN SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRI NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS BETWIXT THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH
QUICKLY WITH ANY PARTIAL CLEARING ENDING. WE STARTED THE EVENING OUT
DRY...BUT INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE VALUES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPSTREAM CUTOFF. WE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST. THE GENERAL TIMING ON THE PCPN WILL
BE TOWARDS 09Z-12Z FOR THE WRN ZONES. A BALMY S/SW WILL PERSIST
KEEPING MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ALLOWING SOME GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE TO 1-1.25". 850 HPA THETA-E VALUES RISE TO ABOUT 315K OVER THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z...AND TUMBLE TO 292K OVER WRN NY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE. THE REGION MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO THE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK...WHICH MAY AID IN ENHANCING THE
RAINFALL OVER THE W/NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
DEEP SHEAR...BUT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO WE DID NOT ADD ANY
THUNDER AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...WE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
VALUES SAT PM...EXCEPT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER
CATSKILLS...WHERE WE KEPT LIKELY VALUES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE EVENING. STRONG 850
HPA COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERNIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 0C OR
COLDER WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND 0600 UTC. LOW TEMPS
WILL START TRENDING BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID AND U30S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...GREAT LAKES CUTOFF LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION
WITH MULTIPLE VORT MAXES APPROACHING IN W/SW FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE
OF A SHOWER ON SUN PM DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
BE W/NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHERE SOME ERN GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE MAY BE TAPPED. MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND H850 TEMPS OF
-2C TO -3C WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 40S IN THE MTNS/HILLS. SOME SCT -SHSNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE WRN ADIRONDACKS...WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS NRN NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK VIA THE GFS/NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHICH
EVOLVES TOWARD A MORE FULLY PHASED MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW
WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING AND
STRENGTHEN DIFFERS IN REGARDS TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON
THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
PLUS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ENTERING THE WEST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH AN ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS IN
BETWEEN. FOLLOWED HPC LEAD WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WILL STILL HAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION MONDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE SOME BE THE END OF THE WEEK AS REGION WILL BE UNDER BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD. MOIST ATLANTIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE LOW HAS REGION
COVERED IN BLANKET OF CLOUDS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR VFR FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CIGS
AND VIS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING EVENTUALLY IFR TONIGHT. LIGHT N-NE
FLOW LESS THAN 5 KNOTS WITH BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN VERY LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS.
SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR-VFR WITH SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/RASN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 10 MPH TODAY VARYING FROM THE NORTH
TO SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT
5-10 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 60 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE
TO 90-100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
65-75 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT SHOT OF QPF WITH COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED. FOLLOWING THAT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 071507
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LINGER THERE
TODAY...THEN MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY EITHER MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OCCLUDED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
BECOMING VERY ELONGATED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AT THE LOW LEVELS TROFFINESS
WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THEREFORE...
OVERCAST SKIES WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE WEATHER
THEME FOR TODAY.

ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...AS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ANY SUNSHINE WILL FILL IN ANY BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS INDICATE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MASS BAY AND CAPE COD BAY...
ALONG WITH NOV LOW SUN ANGLE.

STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S
ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE VALUES MAY SEEM COOL GIVEN THE DAMP
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THESE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH E OF THE
REGION...GIVING A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION. LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL
HANG IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEAKENING LOW AND THE NEXT FRONT. NOT
A LOT OF DRYING INFLUENCE TO CLEAR SKIES OUT OR EVEN BREAK THE LOW
CLOUDS UP. BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS BUFKIT RH CROSS SECTIONS KEEP LOTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW.
HAVE ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL REMAINING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WILL START OFF WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO S AND START TO PICK UP. STILL EXPECTING QUITE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. MAY ACTUALLY GET A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD WARM SOME LOCATIONS HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER-MID 60S.

WILL START TO SEE ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS INTO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
OR AFTER 18Z...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE. USED A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS FOR TIMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PULLING 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PW
VALUES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER UP...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
FROPA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS SO
THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH JUST
SHOWERS.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVE IS IN TURN BEING PUSHED
ALONG BY A 150 KNOT JET. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING MIXING WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRMER CONTROL TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLEARER
WEATHER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL FORM FROM THAT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL
EJECT TOWARD US. THE GFS SLAMS THE LOW NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MURKIER...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
DIGGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. WE
SLOWLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH HIGHEST CEILINGS AND BEST VSBY ACROSS THE CT RVR VALLEY.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG THE COAST LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. MVFR
CIGS RETURN WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT DURING THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS NOT AN ISSUE TODAY WITH LIGHT N WINDS PREVAILING. MAIN
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE POOR VSBY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS...
SAY FROM BUZZARDS BAY EASTWARD. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS
INDICATE VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILES OR LESS. THIS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE DAY GIVEN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MASS BAY/CAPE COD BAY INTO
NANTUCKET SOUND...ALONG WITH NOV LOW SUN ANGLE NOT BEING ABLE TO BURN
OFF ANY FOG.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT.
SEAS MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO S-SW AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 071154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LINGER THERE
TODAY...THEN MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY EITHER MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 09Z.
NOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST ON NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR. ALSO SEE REPORTS OF SPOTTY
DRIZZLE. MOST AREAS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOWERED VSBYS /A MILE OR LESS/ ARE CONFINED TO EASTERN
SECTIONS IN AREAS OF FOG.

THE LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT FINALLY SHIFTS E IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE THROUGH OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 60
OR INTO THE LOWER 60S. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAVMOS GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH NAM 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH E OF THE
REGION...GIVING A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION. LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL
HANG IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEAKENING LOW AND THE NEXT FRONT. NOT
A LOT OF DRYING INFLUENCE TO CLEAR SKIES OUT OR EVEN BREAK THE LOW
CLOUDS UP. BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS BUFKIT RH CROSS SECTIONS KEEP LOTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW.
HAVE ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL REMAINING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WILL START OFF WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO S AND START TO PICK UP. STILL EXPECTING QUITE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. MAY ACTUALLY GET A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD WARM SOME LOCATIONS HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER-MID 60S.

WILL START TO SEE ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS INTO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
OR AFTER 18Z...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE. USED A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS FOR TIMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PULLING 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PW
VALUES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER UP...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
FROPA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS SO
THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH JUST
SHOWERS.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVE IS IN TURN BEING PUSHED
ALONG BY A 150 KNOT JET. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING MIXING WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRMER CONTROL TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLEARER
WEATHER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL FORM FROM THAT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL
EJECT TOWARD US. THE GFS SLAMS THE LOW NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MURKIER...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
DIGGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. WE
SLOWLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG THE COAST LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. MVFR
CIGS RETURN WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT DURING THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 KT OR LESS...BUT WILL STILL SEE
SEAS UPWARD TO 10 FEET S AND E OF NANTUCKET. HAVE CONVERTED TO A
SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT.
SEAS MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO S-SW AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 071135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.  A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY...WITH
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A PAIR OF
CUTOFF LOWS IMPACTING THE LOWER 48. THE STRONGER CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.  THE
WEAKER OF THE CUTOFFS IS LOCATED EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW. ONE IMPULSE
NEAR LONG ISLAND AT 0900 UTC WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SCT
-SHRAS OVER THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. SOME
DRYING DOES OCCUR ABOVE 5 KFT. A FEW GLIMPSES OF SUN MAY OCCUR
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS PRIOR TO SUNSET. OVERALL..CLOUDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 8-10C RANGE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN U50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRI NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS BETWIXT THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH
QUICKLY WITH ANY PARTIAL CLEARING ENDING. WE STARTED THE EVENING OUT
DRY...BUT INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE VALUES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPSTREAM CUTOFF. WE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST. THE GENERAL TIMING ON THE PCPN WILL
BE TOWARDS 09Z-12Z FOR THE WRN ZONES. A BALMY S/SW WILL PERSIST
KEEPING MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ALLOWING SOME GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE TO 1-1.25". 850 HPA THETA-E VALUES RISE TO ABOUT 315K OVER THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z...AND TUMBLE TO 292K OVER WRN NY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE. THE REGION MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO THE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK...WHICH MAY AID IN ENHANCING THE
RAINFALL OVER THE W/NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
DEEP SHEAR...BUT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO WE DID NOT ADD ANY
THUNDER AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...WE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
VALUES SAT PM...EXCEPT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER
CATSKILLS...WHERE WE KEPT LIKELY VALUES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE EVENING. STRONG 850
HPA COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERNIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 0C OR
COLDER WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND 0600 UTC. LOW TEMPS
WILL START TRENDING BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID AND U30S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...GREAT LAKES CUTOFF LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION
WITH MULTIPLE VORT MAXES APPROACHING IN W/SW FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE
OF A SHOWER ON SUN PM DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
BE W/NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHERE SOME ERN GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE MAY BE TAPPED. MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND H850 TEMPS OF
-2C TO -3C WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 40S IN THE MTNS/HILLS. SOME SCT -SHSNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE WRN ADIRONDACKS...WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS NRN NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK VIA THE GFS/NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHICH
EVOLVES TOWARD A MORE FULLY PHASED MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW
WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING AND
STRENGTHEN DIFFERS IN REGARDS TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON
THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
PLUS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ENTERING THE WEST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH AN ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS IN
BETWEEN. FOLLOWED HPC LEAD WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WILL STILL HAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION MONDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE SOME BE THE END OF THE WEEK AS REGION WILL BE UNDER BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD. MOIST ATLANTIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE LOW HAS REGION
COVERED IN BLANKET OF CLOUDS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR VFR FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CIGS
AND VIS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING EVENTUALLY IFR TONIGHT. LIGHT N-NE
FLOW LESS THAN 5 KNOTS WITH BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN VERY LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS.
SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR-VFR WITH SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/RASN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 10 MPH TODAY VARYING FROM THE NORTH
TO SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT
5-10 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 60 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE
TO 90-100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
65-75 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT SHOT OF QPF WITH COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED. FOLLOWING THAT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...15
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 070930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LINGER THERE
TODAY...THEN MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY EITHER MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 09Z.
NOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST ON NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR. ALSO SEE REPORTS OF SPOTTY
DRIZZLE. MOST AREAS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOWERED VSBYS /A MILE OR LESS/ ARE CONFINED TO EASTERN
SECTIONS IN AREAS OF FOG.

THE LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT FINALLY SHIFTS E IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE THROUGH OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 60
OR INTO THE LOWER 60S. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAVMOS GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH NAM 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH E OF THE
REGION...GIVING A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION. LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL
HANG IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEAKENING LOW AND THE NEXT FRONT. NOT
A LOT OF DRYING INFLUENCE TO CLEAR SKIES OUT OR EVEN BREAK THE LOW
CLOUDS UP. BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS BUFKIT RH CROSS SECTIONS KEEP LOTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW.
HAVE ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL REMAINING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WILL START OFF WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO S AND START TO PICK UP. STILL EXPECTING QUITE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. MAY ACTUALLY GET A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD WARM SOME LOCATIONS HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER-MID 60S.

WILL START TO SEE ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS INTO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
OR AFTER 18Z...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE. USED A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS FOR TIMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PULLING 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PW
VALUES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER UP...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
FROPA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS SO
THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH JUST
SHOWERS.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVE IS IN TURN BEING PUSHED
ALONG BY A 150 KNOT JET. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING MIXING WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRMER CONTROL TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLEARER
WEATHER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL FORM FROM THAT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL
EJECT TOWARD US. THE GFS SLAMS THE LOW NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MURKIER...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
DIGGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. WE
SLOWLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG THE COAST LIKELY.

SATURDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. MVFR
CIGS RETURN WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT DURING THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 KT OR LESS...BUT WILL STILL SEE
SEAS UPWARD TO 10 FEET S AND E OF NANTUCKET. HAVE CONVERTED TO A
SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT.
SEAS MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO S-SW AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 070928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.  A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY...WITH
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A PAIR OF
CUTOFF LOWS IMPACTING THE LOWER 48. THE STRONGER CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.  THE
WEAKER OF THE CUTOFFS IS LOCATED EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW. ONE IMPULSE
NEAR LONG ISLAND AT 0900 UTC WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SCT
-SHRAS OVER THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. SOME
DRYING DOES OCCUR ABOVE 5 KFT. A FEW GLIMPSES OF SUN MAY OCCUR
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS PRIOR TO SUNSET. OVERALL..CLOUDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 8-10C RANGE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN U50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRI NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS BETWIXT THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH
QUICKLY WITH ANY PARTIAL CLEARING ENDING. WE STARTED THE EVENING OUT
DRY...BUT INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE VALUES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPSTREAM CUTOFF. WE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST. THE GENERAL TIMING ON THE PCPN WILL
BE TOWARDS 09Z-12Z FOR THE WRN ZONES. A BALMY S/SW WILL PERSIST
KEEPING MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ALLOWING SOME GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISE TO 1-1.25". 850 HPA THETA-E VALUES RISE TO ABOUT 315K OVER
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z...AND TUMBLE TO 292K OVER WRN NY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE. THE REGION MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK...WHICH MAY AID IN
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL OVER THE W/NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP SHEAR...BUT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO
WE DID NOT ADD ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...WE INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL VALUES SAT PM...EXCEPT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...AND LOWER CATSKILLS...WHERE WE KEPT LIKELY VALUES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE EVENING. STRONG 850 HPA
COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERNIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 0C OR
COLDER WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND 0600 UTC. LOW
TEMPS WILL START TRENDING BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH LOWS
IN THE MID AND U30S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...GREAT LAKES CUTOFF LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION
WITH MULTIPLE VORT MAXES APPROACHING IN W/SW FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE
OF A SHOWER ON SUN PM DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
BE W/NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHERE SOME ERN GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE MAY BE TAPPED. MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND H850 TEMPS OF
-2C TO -3C WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 40S IN THE MTNS/HILLS. SOME SCT -SHSNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE WRN ADIRONDACKS...WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS NRN NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK VIA THE GFS/NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHICH
EVOLVES TOWARD A MORE FULLY PHASED MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW
WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING AND
STRENGTHEN DIFFERS IN REGARDS TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON
THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
PLUS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ENTERING THE WEST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH AN ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS IN
BETWEEN. FOLLOWED HPC LEAD WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WILL STILL HAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION MONDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE SOME BE THE END OF THE WEEK AS REGION WILL BE UNDER BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFF DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
THIS MORNING. CIRCULATION ABOUT THE LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER A BIT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
AT KALB AND KPOU INTO THE MID MORNING WITH MVFR THEREAFTER. MVFR
EXPECTED AT KGFL. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
THAT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER...CIGS SAND VIS WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING TO MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE BY 06Z/SAT. LIGHT N-NE
FLOW LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS.
SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR-VFR WITH SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/RASN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 10 MPH TODAY VARYING FROM THE NORTH
TO SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT
5-10 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 60 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE
TO 90-100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
65-75 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT SHOT OF QPF WITH COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED. FOLLOWING THAT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...15
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 070847
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LINGER THERE
TODAY...THEN MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH RPESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY
EITHER MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF MOD-HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS ALL BUT WEAKENED
EXCEPT OVER NE MA/SE NH AT 03Z. STILL NOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ROTATING NWWD OFF THE OCEAN AROUND THE MID ATLC LOW. ALSO NOTING
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...WHICH IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOIST FLOW.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO TRIM BACK THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS BY
MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH ADDING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. MOST AREAS REPORTED 1/2SM VSBY...ALONG WITH VSBYS BELOW
1/2SM FROM BOTH THE NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD FERRIES EARLIER
THIS EVENING.

CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH MORE...AGAIN WITH
THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE 00Z NAM 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...WHILE THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...CONTINUED WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MEANS
ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH STRATUS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE DOMINATING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.

UPDATE...BLENDED TEMPS AND POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE
UPDATED 12Z FORECAST GRIDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG KEEP THE
AREA WELL INSULATED.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER...MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.  WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP KEEP PATCHY
DRIZZLE GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SAT...FOG DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. COMBO OF WEAK WAA
WITH INITIALLY DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE A SHALLOW HIGHLY MOIST LAYER
WITH DIFFERENTIAL FLOW THROUGH THAT MOIST LOW LAYER. A MILD PATTERN
THAT SUGGESTS DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY. IF IT REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH
STRATUS ALL DAY...TEMPS AS FCST IN THIS PACKAGE MAY BE A TAD WARM...
BUT IF SOMEHOW SUN COULD BE MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE AFTN...THEN IT
WOULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. PLEASE KEEP THAT IN MIND WHEN
MAKING A DECISION ON THE DETERMINISTIC FCST TEMPS. JUST TOO EARLY
FOR ME TO BE SURE WHICH WAY TO FAVOR...SO THE BROADER PROBABILISTIC
APPROACH OF INHERENT INCREASED ERROR IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. THE FCST
TEMPS ARE A 40 40 SPLIT OF THE 12Z GFS ETA MOS AND 20 PCT PRIOR 4 AM
KBOX FCST. THE FCST POPS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE 4AM FCST...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED. ALSO SLIGHTLY RAISED THE PRIOR POPS IN S NH DURING THE LATE
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PULLING 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PW
VALUES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER UP...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
FROPA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS SO
THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH JUST
SHOWERS.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVE IS IN TURN BEING PUSHED
ALONG BY A 150 KNOT JET. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING MIXING WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRMER CONTROL TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLEARER
WEATHER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL FORM FROM THAT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL EJECT
TOWARD US. THE GFS SLAMS THE LOW NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS INTO
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MURKIER...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
DIGGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. WE
SLOWLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY IN 1/2SM FG.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING FOR THE MOST
PART.

SAT...MVFR-IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG...THEN MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE BEFORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN
SHOWERS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. STILL
NOTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT...SO KEPT IT GOING FOR NOW. SEAS STILL
UPWARD TO 10 FEET SE OF NANTUCKET. NOT EXPECTING THESE TO DROP MUCH.

FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISHING GRADUALLY...ENDING IN THE 5-7FT RANGE WITH
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10KTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT/RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 070544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS. COOLER...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO
MAINE...AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PCPN ROTATING INTO OUR AREA HAS
DECREASED TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE...SO HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS/FCSTS TO REFLECT THIS. POPS OF NO HIGHER THAN 40
PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRI...LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LOWERS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST FROM TODAY/S AND TONIGHT/S
RAINFALL. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION. FOR MAXES...BASED ON
EXPECTATION FOR MORE CLOUDS...HAVE GONE WITH OR A BIT BELOW MOST MOS
NUMBERS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY REGION AND CAPITAL REGION...WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS DEVELOP QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...MUCH WARMER
TEMPS...POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S...COULD OCCUR WITHIN VALLEY
REGIONS.

FRI NT...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR AREAS W OF THE HUDSON
RIVER LATE...WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THINK MOST RAIN
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z/SAT FOR AREAS NEAR AND E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES POSSIBLE TOWARD SAT DAYBREAK
FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD...GIVEN CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SE/S
WINDS...WITH SOME VALLEY REGIONS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE MID OR EVEN
UPPER 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO REGION. WE HAVE INDICATED LIKELY
POPS...WITH MAIN TIMING FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR MAX TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV MOS. SHOWERS SHOULD
END LATE SAT EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DACKS. FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND
AROUND 60 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SAT...WITH SAT NT/SUN AM MINS
FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S WITHIN
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE START A NEW WORK WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  AT THE
SURFACE...COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO.  IN FACT...WITH THE COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDANT.

THEN A NARROW RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS ANOTHER TROUGH LOADS UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  RATHER STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL COME ASHORE AND
ASSIST WITH CARVING OUT THIS TROUGH AND IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMMENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
DATA OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BUT THEY ALL OFFER AN IDEA OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFF DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
THIS MORNING. CIRCULATION ABOUT THE LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER A BIT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
AT KALB AND KPOU INTO THE MID MORNING WITH MVFR THEREAFTER. MVFR
EXPECTED AT KGFL. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
THAT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER...CIGS SAND VIS WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING TO MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE BY 06Z/SAT. LIGHT N-NE
FLOW LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS.
SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR-VFR WITH SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/RASN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS. COOLER...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND MAY OCCUR AGAIN SAT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TO N TONIGHT AT 5-10 MPH...THEN BECOME SE
TO S BY LATE FRI AT 5-10 MPH.

THE RH WILL REACH 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE 65-75
PERCENT RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN INCREASE TO 90-100
PERCENT FRI NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING SHOULD REACH ONE TENTH...TO ONE THIRD
OF AN INCH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.
MINOR RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE ON SAT. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBOX 070504
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1205 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRI...THEN MOVE OFF THROUGH NOVA
SCOTIA SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT
AND MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY
FOLLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST USA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER DRIER WEATHER. LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE
MIDWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF MOD-HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS ALL BUT WEAKENED
EXCEPT OVER NE MA/SE NH AT 03Z. STILL NOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ROTATING NWWD OFF THE OCEAN AROUND THE MID ATLC LOW. ALSO NOTING
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...WHICH IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOIST FLOW.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO TRIM BACK THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS BY
MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH ADDING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. MOST AREAS REPORTED 1/2SM VSBY...ALONG WITH VSBYS BELOW
1/2SM FROM BOTH THE NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD FERRIES EARLIER
THIS EVENING.

CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH MORE...AGAIN WITH
THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE 00Z NAM 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...WHILE THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...CONTINUED WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MEANS
ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH STRATUS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE DOMINATING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.

UPDATE...BLENDED TEMPS AND POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE
UPDATED 12Z FORECAST GRIDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG KEEP THE
AREA WELL INSULATED.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER...MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.  WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP KEEP PATCHY
DRIZZLE GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS FCST IS A MERGER FROM THE 4AM KBOX FCST AND MOSTLY THE 12Z/6
GFS MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SAT...FOG DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. COMBO OF WEAK WAA
WITH INITIALLY DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE A SHALLOW HIGHLY MOIST LAYER
WITH DIFFERENTIAL FLOW THROUGH THAT MOIST LOW LAYER. A MILD PATTERN
THAT SUGGESTS DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY. IF IT REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH
STRATUS ALL DAY...TEMPS AS FCST IN THIS PACKAGE MAY BE A TAD WARM...
BUT IF SOMEHOW SUN COULD BE MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE AFTN...THEN IT
WOULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. PLEASE KEEP THAT IN MIND WHEN
MAKING A DECISION ON THE DETERMINISTIC FCST TEMPS. JUST TOO EARLY
FOR ME TO BE SURE WHICH WAY TO FAVOR...SO THE BROADER PROBABILISTIC
APPROACH OF INHERENT INCREASED ERROR IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. THE FCST
TEMPS ARE A 40 40 SPLIT OF THE 12Z GFS ETA MOS AND 20 PCT PRIOR 4 AM
KBOX FCST. THE FCST POPS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE 4AM FCST...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED. ALSO SLIGHTLY RAISED THE PRIOR POPS IN S NH DURING THE LATE
AFTN.

ATTM BLV THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS IN THE 6 PM SAT TO 4 AM
SUNDAY TIME SLOT. FOR NOW HAVE LIKELY BOTH PERIODS FOR LEFTOVER
MORNING WAA MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

SUN-WED...CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PULSES OF EVER COLDER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT AND GENERAL COOLDOWN. THIS MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR
EVEN EVENTUALLY FLURRIES IN THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS ARE
ESSENTIALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST AND 12Z/6
GFS MAV MOSGUIDANCE. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MID WEEK WAVE OF LOW
PRES DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS PRONOUNCED. SO THE POPS WERE CUT BACK
BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT OCCUR. 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
12Z GFS ENS ARE SAYING HIGH PRES GOVERNS MID WEEK.

THU/FRI...MIDWEST LOW PRES AND EVENTUALLY WAA RAIN DEVELOPS WITH A
SLOW MODERATING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY IN 1/2SM FG.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING FOR THE MOST
PART.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SAT...MVFR-IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG...THEN MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE BEFORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN
SHOWERS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. STILL
NOTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT...SO KEPT IT GOING FOR NOW. SEAS STILL
UPWARD TO 10 FEET SE OF NANTUCKET. NOT EXPECTING THESE TO DROP MUCH.

FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISHING GRADUALLY...ENDING IN THE 5-7FT RANGE WITH
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10KTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...SAT THROUGH TUE...
NO MAJOR HEADLINES FORESEEN. SCA SEAS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
OPEN WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SOUTH OF RHODE
ISLAND SAT INTO MON. TUE MAY SEE SOME MARGINAL SCA WINDS AND SEAS
DUE TO CAA AND BETTER TRANSFER - STEEPER OVERWATER LAPSE RATES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT/RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 070319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS. COOLER...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO
MAINE...AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PCPN ROTATING INTO OUR AREA HAS
DECREASED TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE...SO HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS/FCSTS TO REFLECT THIS. POPS OF NO HIGHER THAN 40
PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRI...LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LOWERS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST FROM TODAY/S AND TONIGHT/S
RAINFALL. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION. FOR MAXES...BASED ON
EXPECTATION FOR MORE CLOUDS...HAVE GONE WITH OR A BIT BELOW MOST MOS
NUMBERS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY REGION AND CAPITAL REGION...WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS DEVELOP QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...MUCH WARMER
TEMPS...POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S...COULD OCCUR WITHIN VALLEY
REGIONS.

FRI NT...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR AREAS W OF THE HUDSON
RIVER LATE...WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THINK MOST RAIN
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z/SAT FOR AREAS NEAR AND E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES POSSIBLE TOWARD SAT DAYBREAK
FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD...GIVEN CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SE/S
WINDS...WITH SOME VALLEY REGIONS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE MID OR EVEN
UPPER 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO REGION. WE HAVE INDICATED LIKELY
POPS...WITH MAIN TIMING FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR MAX TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV MOS. SHOWERS SHOULD
END LATE SAT EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DACKS. FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND
AROUND 60 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SAT...WITH SAT NT/SUN AM MINS
FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S WITHIN
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE START A NEW WORK WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  AT THE
SURFACE...COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO.  IN FACT...WITH THE COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDANT.

THEN A NARROW RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS ANOTHER TROUGH LOADS UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  RATHER STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL COME ASHORE AND
ASSIST WITH CARVING OUT THIS TROUGH AND IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMMENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
DATA OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BUT THEY ALL OFFER AN IDEA OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR VSBYS...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE
INTO THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF AREAS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU WHERE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS HAS BEEN
FORECAST BETWEEN 05Z AND 15Z. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AT UNDER 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR...SLGT CHC SHRA.
SAT...MVFR/IFR...SHRA.
SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR...SLGT CHC/CHC OF SHRA/RASN.
TUE AM...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS. COOLER...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND MAY OCCUR AGAIN SAT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TO N TONIGHT AT 5-10 MPH...THEN BECOME SE
TO S BY LATE FRI AT 5-10 MPH.

THE RH WILL REACH 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE 65-75
PERCENT RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN INCREASE TO 90-100
PERCENT FRI NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING SHOULD REACH ONE TENTH...TO ONE THIRD
OF AN INCH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.
MINOR RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE ON SAT. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KGS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL