[top]
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081802
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1102 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS...MOSTLY WIND-WISE. ARE
THINKING SERIOUSLY ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST CYCLE FOR OUR EXTREME WRN CWA AS COLD TROUGH DROPS IN
TOMORROW. MORE ON THAT IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) TODAY...
AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THE BIG WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO AZ. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS...GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE FAVORED EUROPEAN MODEL
DEPICTING A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...WE CANT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH PHOENIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX...GENERALLY SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL FOR SUNDAYS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FAVORED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HAD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.
SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...PERHAPS PEAKING TO NEAR
40 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE ALSO LIKELY. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A DRY SOLUTION...AS THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR TUE IS MUCH
WEAKER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
PHX AREA...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF WINDOW OF WLY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRAINAGE WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK-UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL
INDICATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW.
SE CA/SW AZ...
WEAK WINDS THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LEAD
TO STRONG WINDS /GUSTS 30-35 KT/ SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 13-16Z. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLOWING DUST. WINDS
SLOWLY WEAKENING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081653
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS...MOSTLY WIND-WISE. ARE
THINKING SERIOUSLY ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST CYCLE FOR OUR EXTREME WRN CWA AS COLD TROUGH DROPS IN
TOMORROW. MORE ON THAT IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) TODAY...
AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THE BIG WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO AZ. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS...GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE FAVORED EUROPEAN MODEL
DEPICTING A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...WE CANT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH PHOENIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX...GENERALLY SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL FOR SUNDAYS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FAVORED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HAD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.
SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...PERHAPS PEAKING TO NEAR
40 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE ALSO LIKELY. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A DRY SOLUTION...AS THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR TUE IS MUCH
WEAKER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY. SKY HRBR AIRPORT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL VEERING TO A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE AFT 21Z. SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 15 THSD FT ARE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE DAY...THICKENING CLOUDS BY MID DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF PHOENIX. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO SHIFT GRADUALLY TO SW...THEN
WESTERLY AND GUSTY THRU SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLWG DUST
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST THRU ABOUT 0500Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081652
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS...MOSTLY WIND-WISE. ARE
THINKING SERIOUSLY ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST CYCLE FOR OUR EXTREME WRN CWA AS COLD TROUGH DROPS IN
TOMORROW. MORE ON THAT IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) TODAY
..AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THE BIG WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO AZ. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS...GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE FAVORED EUROPEAN MODEL
DEPICTING A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...WE CANT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH PHOENIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX...GENERALLY SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL FOR SUNDAYS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FAVORED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HAD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.
SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...PERHAPS PEAKING TO NEAR
40 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE ALSO LIKELY. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A DRY SOLUTION...AS THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR TUE IS MUCH
WEAKER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY. SKY HRBR AIRPORT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL VEERING TO A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE AFT 21Z. SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 15 THSD FT ARE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE DAY...THICKENING CLOUDS BY MID DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF PHOENIX. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO SHIFT GRADUALLY TO SW...THEN
WESTERLY AND GUSTY THRU SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLWG DUST
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST THRU ABOUT 0500Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
[top]
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 081651
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT NOV 08 2008
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ON SUNDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE FINALLY SHOWING A CONSENSUS SOLUTION AS THE
GFS HAS NOW BEGUN TO SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS AZ. IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW DEEPER MIXING AND EROSION OF THE
COOL SFC LAYER THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND DEEPER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN SOME LOCATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL BE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THIS
CHANGE. IN ADDITION...NEW MODEL SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS WILL ADD SOME VERY LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION THRU MID
WEEK.
RIDGING RETURNS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 09Z SUNDAY...THEN CIGS DVLPG BETWEEN 04-06 KFT AGL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS DVLPG AT TAFS FROM KFLG TO
KPRC NORTHWARD AFT 15Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......DB
AVIATION....TC
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
[top]
000
FXUS65 KTWC 081631
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TODAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND BRING GUSTY WINDS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. DRY BY TUESDAY...BUT AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WELL IT GOT A LOT COLDER THIS MORNING EAST OF TUCSON
THAT WHAT I HAD FORECAST WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOWS OCCURRING
IN COCHISE COUNTY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. CHANGES
WILL START TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTS TO INFLUENCE OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. FIRST WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH
WILL HELP IN BRINGING WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
TUCSON. SECOND WILL BE THE TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RESULTING IN A BREEZY TO WINDY SUNDAY WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENTLY THINKING ABOUT HOISTING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON AS 700 MB WINDS PEAK
AROUND 40 KTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIRD WILL
BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER MOISTURE. HOW MUCH IS
ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...WHICH ARE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. FOURTH IS THE PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT WILL WORK
ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE PEAKS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING INTO THE
9000-10000 FOOT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DOWN TO AROUND 6500
FEET IN THE WHITES AND TO 9000 FEET ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY
BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE ON THE
REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WE`VE SEEN LITTLE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AND IT IS STILL UNDETERMINED
HOW DEEP THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
AND HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING ANY FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS BUT CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A SHORT
LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING NEED TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
BELIEVE WE WILL HIT THE REQUIRED THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL 09/06Z BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS START TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROF CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...VERY COLD THIS MORNING ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY WHERE
DOUGLAS SET A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 8 WITH 24
DEGREES EASILY BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 28 DEGREES SET IN 1957.
WILLCOX WAS DOWN TO 22 WHICH WAS FOUR DEGREES OFF THEIR RECORD.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081214 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
514 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) TODAY
..AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THE BIG WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO AZ. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS...GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE FAVORED EUROPEAN MODEL
DEPICTING A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...WE CANT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH PHOENIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX...GENERALLY SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL FOR SUNDAYS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FAVORED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HAD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.
SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...PERHAPS PEAKING TO NEAR
40 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE ALSO LIKELY. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A DRY SOLUTION...AS THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR TUE IS MUCH
WEAKER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY. SKY HRBR AIRPORT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL VEERING TO A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE AFT 21Z. SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 15 THSD FT ARE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE DAY...THICKENING CLOUDS BY MID DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF PHOENIX. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO SHIFT GRADUALLY TO SW...THEN
WESTERLY AND GUSTY THRU SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLWG DUST
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST THRU ABOUT 0500Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 081032
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST SAT NOV 08 2008
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS. BY SUNDAY...A FAST-MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING WINDY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HGHTS WILL FALL TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM DUE IN
NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. DESPITE FALLING HGHTS...MIXING WILL IMPROVE
TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE FINALLY MORE
OR LESS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT WE CAN USE. ALL MODELS INDICATE
A FAST MOVING AND FAIRLY COMPACT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM
LAS VEGAS TO THE GRAND CANYON SUNDAY MORNING...AND OUT OF THE STATE
THROUGH WINDOW ROCK BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
STORM...BUT IT WILL FEATURE A NICE FRONT...A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND
ABOUT 6 HOURS OF FAIRLY DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE RIM
NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. WE HAVE RAISED POPS
A LITTLE BIT...AND DROPPED TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE
REGION DRIES OUT WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
STORM. BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...WE ARE BACK IN A
LARGE-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......PETERSON
AVIATION....MAS
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KPSR 080948
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) TODAY
..AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THE BIG WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO AZ. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS...GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE FAVORED EUROPEAN MODEL
DEPICTING A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...WE CANT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH PHOENIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX... GENERALLY SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL FOR SUNDAYS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FAVORED. FOR SEVERALS DAYS NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HAD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.
SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...PERHAPS PEAKING TO NEAR
40 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE ALSO LIKELY. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A DRY SOLUTION...AS THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR TUE IS MUCH
WEAKER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY. SKY HRBR AIRPORT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL VEERING TO A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE AFT 21Z. SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 15 THSD FT ARE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE DAY...THICKENING CLOUDS BY MID DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF PHOENIX. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO SHIFT GRADUALLY TO SW...THEN
WESTERLY AND GUSTY THRU SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLWG DUST
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST THRU ABOUT 0500Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KTWC 080938
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TODAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING IN BY LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. DRY BY
TUESDAY...BUT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR AND COOL THIS MORNING AND QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE
DEWPTS IN SINGLE DIGITS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 1/10 OF AN
INCH. RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL PHASE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A STRONG SYSTEM
DIGS INTO WESTERN STATES. BEST ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON A
TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT EXPECT GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY BEFORE A FEW
SHOWERS WANDER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY MONDAY. GFS HAS SLOWLY DEEPENED THIS SYSTEM
WITH TIME MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS...SO STILL
SHADED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE STARTING TO BACK
OFF ON A MID WEEK SYSTEM...PREFERRING TO PROTECT US ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF A DEVELOPING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KPSR 080328
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY
SATURDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER AZ...WITH SKIES CLEAR AT 8 PM PER
THE IR IMAGERY. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE
LOW TEENS TO UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. PROGS FORECAST HIGH
PRESSURE TO PERSIST TONIGHT...AND WITH GRADIENTS WEAK NO WIND ISSUES
EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT MOSTLY
DIURNAL WINDS...AND SOMEWHAT COOL LOWS...SEEMS FINE. NO UPDATES
NEEDED. REST OF THE DISCUSSION IS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
FROM THE NORTH GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. OTHERWISE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT OR LESS THAN 12 MPH FAVORING A DIRECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST...NORTH...OR NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND ARIZONA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY SATURDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET CLOSE TO OR JUST INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THOSE AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
FROM ABOUT THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCOMING SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH DECREASING WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SUNNY AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA AIRFIELDS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH. FOR KPHX/KIWA
...EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH SPEEDS GENLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
SE CA/SW AZ...A FEW GUSTS OF 12 TO 18 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 02Z AT KBLH AND KNYL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY...FROM 5-12 MPH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KIPL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
KPHX AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB/ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 080327
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
823 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...
ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BY SUNDAY...A STRONG
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AT 8 PM MST...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. A RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES WARMER. NO UPDATES NEEDED TONIGHT.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(230 PM MST FRI NOV 7)...A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUDINESS...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE ARE
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A LESS AMPLIFIED
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AND THE ECMWF A MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER MOVING
TROUGH. UKMET AND NAM SOLUTIONS FALL SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODELS. NCEP/HPC DISCUSSIONS HAVE OPTED FOR A GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND
WILL ACCEPT THIS. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL FROM AROUND 9000
FEET SUNDAY TO BELOW 6500 FEET MONDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PCPN REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORIES FOR THIS
PERIOD AS NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED A STRONG MOISTURE TAP AS
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
RIDGING RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......JJ / DB
AVIATION....JJ
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KTWC 080146
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
705 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVING IN BY LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO
START THE NEW WEEK. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER ARIZONA THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON BOTH SIDES
OF ZERO...POSITIVE AT KTUS AND KOLS...NEGATIVE IN KSAD AND KDUG. THE
00Z KTWC SOUNDING SUPPORTED THAT WITH PW VALUES OF 0.05 IN AND A
WIDE GAP BETWEEN DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. LONG WAY OF SAYING DRY AIR OVERHEAD. THAT SAID...DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO ALTER INHERITED FORECAST. FOR FORECAST
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE PREV DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED TO SEASONAL VALUES. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS UPPER
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT
A CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING. SUNNY SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN
TODAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE SUNDAY FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE END
UP ISSUING ONE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
12Z MODELS ARE COMING BETTER IN LINE WITH TRACK OF CLOSED LOW
THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM IS ALSO IN LINE. PRETTY DRY OUT THERE AT THIS
TIME...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO TAP SOME MARINE LAYER MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH THE MID-HI LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED THIS
SYSTEM. VERY BEST SHOT OF MEASURABLE RAIN/SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING LOWERING TO 6500 FEET IN THE WHITES TO 8000 FEET ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN ACCUMULATION...JUST A
DUSTING. QUICK MOVING TRAILER SYSTEM WILL CONDITIONS UNSETTLED LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY UP IN THE WHITES. AFTER WEEKEND
WARMUP...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HAVEN`T MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED AT
THERE ARE STILL DISAGREEMENTS ON IF A FOLLOWUP SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM
THE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KPSR 072328 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
428 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY
SATURDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
FROM THE NORTH GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. OTHERWISE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT OR LESS THAN 12 MPH FAVORING A DIRECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST...NORTH...OR NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND ARIZONA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY SATURDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET CLOSE TO OR JUST INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THOSE AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
FROM ABOUT THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCOMING SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH DECREASING WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SUNNY AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA AIRFIELDS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH. FOR KPHX/KIWA
...EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH SPEEDS GENLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
SE CA/SW AZ...A FEW GUSTS OF 12 TO 18 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 02Z AT KBLH AND KNYL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY...FROM 5-12 MPH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KIPL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
KPHX AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 072231
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MTNS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AZ WHILE WINDS AT LOWER
ELEVATION SITES HAVE DIMINISHED. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND LIGHTER WINDS ON SATURDAY.
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST BY
SUNDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDINESS...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING
A LESS AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AND THE ECMWF A MUCH DEEPER AND
SLOWER MOVING TROUGH. UKMET AND NAM SOLUTIONS FALL SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. NCEP/HPC DISCUSSIONS HAVE OPTED FOR A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND WILL ACCEPT THIS. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY APPROACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL FROM AROUND 9000 FEET SUNDAY TO BELOW 6500 FEET MONDAY MORNING.
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PCPN REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORIES FOR THIS PERIOD AS NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED A
STRONG MOISTURE TAP AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
RIDGING RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST OF A KPRC-KPGA LINE AFT 18Z SAT EXPECT
SCT-BKN250. THROUGH 02Z SAT...NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THEN DIMINISH. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WINDS ARE FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......DB
AVIATION....41
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KPSR 072208
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY
SATURDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
FROM THE NORTH GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. OTHERWISE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT OR LESS THAN 12 MPH FAVORING A DIRECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST...NORTH...OR NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND ARIZONA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY SATURDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET CLOSE TO OR JUST INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THOSE AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
FROM ABOUT THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCOMING SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH DECREASING WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SUNNY AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 21Z AT KBLH AND KNYL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KIPL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
KPHX AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...ROGERS/SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KPSR 072207
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY
SATURDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
FROM THE NORTH GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. OTHERWISE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT OR LESS THAN 12 MPH FAVORING A DIRECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST...NORTH...OR NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND ARIZONA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY SATURDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET CLOSE TO OR JUST INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THOSE AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
FROM ABOUT THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCOMING SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH DECREASING WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SUNNY AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 21Z AT KBLH AND KNYL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KIPL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
KPHX AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION..ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...ROGERS/SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KTWC 072146
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVING IN BY LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO
START THE NEW WEEK. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO SEASONAL VALUES. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONG PACIFIC
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT A
CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING. SUNNY SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN
TODAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE SUNDAY FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE END
UP ISSUING ONE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
12Z MODELS ARE COMING BETTER IN LINE WITH TRACK OF CLOSED LOW
THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM IS ALSO IN LINE. PRETTY DRY OUT THERE AT THIS
TIME...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO TAP SOME MARINE LAYER MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH THE MID-HI LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED THIS
SYSTEM. VERY BEST SHOT OF MEASURABLE RAIN/SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING LOWERING TO 6500 FEET IN THE WHITES TO 8000 FEET ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN ACCUMULATION...JUST A
DUSTING. QUICK MOVING TRAILER SYSTEM WILL CONDITIONS UNSETTLED LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY UP IN THE WHITES. AFTER WEEKEND
WARMUP...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HAVEN`T MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED AT
THERE ARE STILL DISAGREEMENTS ON IF A FOLLOWUP SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM
THE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071714 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES
SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE...
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
DRY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY. THERE IS
ALSO SOME WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALL
THIS IS GENERALLY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. THUS NO UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE MADE SOME FORECAST CHANGES FOR SUNDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING PHOENIX SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY
POST FRONTAL WINDS TO PERHAPS 35 MPH. THE WEATHER SERVICE IS
FOCUSING ON MORE HIGH IMPACT EVENTS NOW...AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY IT
COULD BE....STRONG GUSTY WINDS. READ ON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM (BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY) WILL BREAK DOWN
RAPIDLY SUNDAY. WEAVE BEEN EXPECTING ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF AND COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE QUESTION WAS...HOW
INTENSE.
FOR DAYS NOW...THE TWO MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS (THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN) HAVE BEEN AT ODDS ON SUNDAYS SYSTEM. BOTH MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN TRENDS...I.E. THE GFS
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND TROF BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH...AND THE
EUROPEAN A MORE INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT DYNAMIC TROF OVER CENTRAL AZ.
IN FACT...THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF 200 METERS BY 12Z SUN OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT OF CA
(JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS)...WITH ANOTHER 130 METER FALL OVER
PHOENIX BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHT FALLS OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE
SYNONYMOUS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT).
THE CHANGE IN SUNDAYS FORECAST...AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...IS DUE TO US FAVORING THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL.
EVEN THOUGH BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE EACH HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ...WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC...
LENDS CREDENCE TO THE NOTION OF SOME BUCKLING OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER AZ...SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ADDITIONALLY...THE FOLKS
AT NCEP (IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY) FAVOR THE
DEEPER EUROPEAN...ALTHOUGH THEIR CURRENT THINKING IS TO USE A BLEND
OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS AS A....JUST IN CASE CLAUSE.
SUNDAY....
A NEGATIVE TILT TROF...ALONG WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION (500 MB TEMPS FALL TO MINUS 20 C BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING) ...PORTEND GUSTY WINDS REGION WIDE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING GREATER PHOENIX...AND ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY). CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...DRY AND COOL MONDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 21Z AT KBLH AND KNYL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KIPL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
KPHX AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION..ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...ROGERS/SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071656
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES
SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE...
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
DRY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY. THERE IS
ALSO SOME WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALL
THIS IS GENERALLY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. THUS NO UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE MADE SOME FORECAST CHANGES FOR SUNDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING PHOENIX SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY
POST FRONTAL WINDS TO PERHAPS 35 MPH. THE WEATHER SERVICE IS
FOCUSING ON MORE HIGH IMPACT EVENTS NOW...AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY IT
COULD BE....STRONG GUSTY WINDS. READ ON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM (BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY) WILL BREAK DOWN
RAPIDLY SUNDAY. WEAVE BEEN EXPECTING ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF AND COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE QUESTION WAS...HOW
INTENSE.
FOR DAYS NOW...THE TWO MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS (THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN) HAVE BEEN AT ODDS ON SUNDAYS SYSTEM. BOTH MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN TRENDS...I.E. THE GFS
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND TROF BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH...AND THE
EUROPEAN A MORE INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT DYNAMIC TROF OVER CENTRAL AZ.
IN FACT...THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF 200 METERS BY 12Z SUN OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT OF CA
(JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS)...WITH ANOTHER 130 METER FALL OVER
PHOENIX BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHT FALLS OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE
SYNONYMOUS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT).
THE CHANGE IN SUNDAYS FORECAST...AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...IS DUE TO US FAVORING THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL.
EVEN THOUGH BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE EACH HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ...WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC...
LENDS CREDENCE TO THE NOTION OF SOME BUCKLING OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER AZ...SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ADDITIONALLY...THE FOLKS
AT NCEP (IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY) FAVOR THE
DEEPER EUROPEAN...ALTHOUGH THEIR CURRENT THINKING IS TO USE A BLEND
OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS AS A....JUST IN CASE CLAUSE.
SUNDAY....
A NEGATIVE TILT TROF...ALONG WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION (500 MB TEMPS FALL TO MINUS 20 C BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING) ...PORTEND GUSTY WINDS REGION WIDE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING GREATER PHOENIX...AND ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY). CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...DRY AND COOL MONDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS A SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS ALL DAY
WHILE FAVORING A NORTH DIRECTION. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED AT KIPL AS
RATHER WEAK GRADIENTS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THUS...GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION..ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KTWC 071631
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING IN BY LATE
SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO START THE NEW WEEK. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SPOTS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON BELOW FREEZING. STILL NO SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE FREEZE WAS
IN COCHISE COUNTY AS ALL THE DATA IS NOT IN YET. NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A
SMIDGE BELOW NORMAL. CLEAR TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD
AS THIS MORNING. SUNNY SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
TODAY. NEW 12Z GUIDANCE COMING IN MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. WILL CONSIDER INCREASING TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON DEPTH OF SYSTEM AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER SOUTH THAN
12Z NAM/GFS. I MOST LIKELY WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY ABOUT 6-10 HOURS BUT WILL AWAIT THE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION. MORE IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 071601
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MTNS THIS MORNING RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS NRN AZ. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPS WERE QUITE COLD ACROSS
THE AREA BUT SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO RELAX
DURING THE DAY AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH.
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS RIDGING SHOULD RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST BY
SUNDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDINESS...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING
A LESS AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AND THE ECMWF A MUCH DEEPER AND
SLOWER MOVING TROUGH. NCEP/HPC DISCUSSIONS HAVE OPTED FOR A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND WILL ACCEPT THIS. WILL PROBABLY INCREASE POPS
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
RIDGING RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH 21Z
EXPECT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...WITH
DECREASING SPEEDS AFT 21Z. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS NRN AZ AFT 02Z WILL BECOME LIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......DB
AVIATION....41
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071244 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
544 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES
SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE...
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
DRY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WE MADE SOME FORECAST CHANGES FOR SUNDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING PHOENIX SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY
POST FRONTAL WINDS TO PERHAPS 35 MPH. THE WEATHER SERVICE IS
FOCUSING ON MORE HIGH IMPACT EVENTS NOW...AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY IT
COULD BE....STRONG GUSTY WINDS. READ ON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM (BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY) WILL BREAK DOWN
RAPIDLY SUNDAY. WEAVE BEEN EXPECTING ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF AND COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE QUESTION WAS...HOW
INTENSE.
FOR DAYS NOW...THE TWO MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS (THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN) HAVE BEEN AT ODDS ON SUNDAYS SYSTEM. BOTH MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN TRENDS...I.E. THE GFS
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND TROF BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH...AND THE
EUROPEAN A MORE INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT DYNAMIC TROF OVER CENTRAL AZ.
IN FACT...THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF 200 METERS BY 12Z SUN OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT OF CA
(JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS)...WITH ANOTHER 130 METER FALL OVER
PHOENIX BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHT FALLS OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE
SYNONYMOUS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT).
THE CHANGE IN SUNDAYS FORECAST...AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...IS DUE TO US FAVORING THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL.
EVEN THOUGH BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE EACH HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ...WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC...
LENDS CREDENCE TO THE NOTION OF SOME BUCKLING OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER AZ...SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ADDITIONALLY...THE FOLKS
AT NCEP (IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY) FAVOR THE
DEEPER EUROPEAN...ALTHOUGH THEIR CURRENT THINKING IS TO USE A BLEND
OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS AS A....JUST IN CASE CLAUSE.
SUNDAY....
A NEGATIVE TILT TROF...ALONG WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION (500 MB TEMPS FALL TO MINUS 20 C BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING) ...PORTEND GUSTY WINDS REGION WIDE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING GREATER PHOENIX...AND ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY). CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...DRY AND COOL MONDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS A SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS ALL DAY
WHILE FAVORING A NORTH DIRECTION. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED AT KIPL AS
RATHER WEAK GRADIENTS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THUS...GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 071027
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF ARIZONA WILL
BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TODAY. ON SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING COOLER...BREEZIER
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TODAY AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AS
WELL. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL VALUES TODAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY...DUE IN PART TO A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THESE TROUGH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECTED WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL VALUES...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGH 15Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AFTER 15Z OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND HIGHER TERRAIN
SOUTHWARD. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS AFTER 18Z.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 20Z...THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 02Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......TC
AVIATION....MS
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070943
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
242 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES
SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE...
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
DRY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WE MADE SOME FORECAST CHANGES FOR SUNDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING PHOENIX SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY
POST FRONTAL WINDS TO PERHAPS 35 MPH. THE WEATHER SERVICE IS
FOCUSING ON MORE HIGH IMPACT EVENTS NOW...AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY IT
COULD BE....STRONG GUSTY WINDS. READ ON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM (BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY) WILL BREAK DOWN
RAPIDLY SUNDAY. WEVE BEEN EXPECTING ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF AND COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE QUESTION WAS...HOW
INTENSE.
FOR DAYS NOW...THE TWO MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS (THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN) HAVE BEEN AT ODDS ON SUNDAYS SYSTEM. BOTH MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN TRENDS...I.E. THE GFS
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND TROF BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH...AND THE
EUROPEAN A MORE INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT DYNAMIC TROF OVER CENTRAL AZ.
IN FACT...THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF 200 METERS BY 12Z SUN OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT OF CA
(JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS)...WITH ANOTHER 130 METER FALL OVER
PHOENIX BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHT FALLS OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE
SYNONYMOUS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT).
THE CHANGE IN SUNDAYS FORECAST...AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...IS DUE TO US FAVORING THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL.
EVEN THOUGH BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE EACH HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ...WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC...
LENDS CREDENCE TO THE NOTION OF SOME BUCKLING OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER AZ...SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ADDITIONALLY...THE FOLKS
AT NCEP (IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY) FAVOR THE
DEEPER EUROPEAN...ALTHOUGH THEIR CURRENT THINKING IS TO USE A BLEND
OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS AS A....JUST IN CASE CLAUSE.
SUNDAY....
A NEGATIVE TILT TROF...ALONG WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION (500 MB TEMPS FALL TO MINUS 20 C BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING) ...PORTEND GUSTY WINDS REGION WIDE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING GREATER PHOENIX...AND ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY). CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...DRY AND COOL MONDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS A SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS ALL DAY
WHILE FAVORING A NORTH DIRECTION. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED AT KIPL AS
RATHER WEAK GRADIENTS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THUS...GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE CRITERIA MET. BY MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KTWC 070923
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING IN BY LATE
SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO START THE NEW WEEK. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHARP RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST IN A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND PHASE TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGS INTO WESTERN
STATES BY SUNDAY. BEST BET WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT COULD SEE A FEW TERRAIN ENHANCED
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BEFORE A
STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS IN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT AS
ACTIVE AS THE DEEPER EUROPEAN SOLUTION...WHICH HITS THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM HARDER AND BRINGS IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RECARVING A MEAN
TROUGH POSITION INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK. WILLING TO GO WITH A
STRONGER COMPROMISE SUNDAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE ON THE MID WEEK
CONTRIBUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL EITHER BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN BY 12Z FRI. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING ZONE 35 UNTIL 8AM.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070440
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
940 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING MOST NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA...AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
SUNDAY. SUBSEQUENT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THIS EVENING TO THE SHORT-TERM
DATABASE...MAINLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST...CENTERED
ACROSS WRN CO...WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT NE-SW SURFACE GRADIENT TONIGHT
ACROSS AZ. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT/MORNING BREEZINESS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS UP A HANDFUL OF DEGREES...SO MIN TEMPS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL.
PROGS AGREE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER AZ FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOR CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS SAT MORNING SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL NICELY...AND PROBABLY BE LOWER IN MANY SPOTS THAN
TONIGHTS LOWS. GRADUAL MIXING EACH DAY SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
RISE AND THEY SHOULD REACH TO ABOUT SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY...THEN RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...AND DRY...SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SRN
NV/CA AND ACROSS AZ ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS RUN IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE ALL BEEN OF A
SIMILAR NATURE. EURO IS DEEPER THAN GFS...AND BASED ON RECENT TRACK
RECORD AND HPC MODEL DISCUSSION...TEND TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION.
IN EITHER CASE THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY FOR US AND AS SUCH WE WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER SRN GILA COUNTY. WE
HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP A BIT...SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS GRADIENTS
REALLY TIGHTEN. AND WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALUES FOR MAX TEMPS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST
OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS. AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS OFF TO OUR EAST
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...DRIER SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. THUS MONDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WE HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS MONDAY 3-5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS FORECAST.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EUROPEAN AND GFS DIVERGE A BIT BUT BOTH
SUGGEST TROFFING WILL MOVE THRU THE WEST...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE A
BIT UNSETTLED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MANY MEMBERS SHOW EITHER OPEN
WAVE OR EVEN CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT
THE CLIMO POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY. THESE POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE MEX MOS
NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST BY BOTH PROGS FOR THURSDAY...SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A BIT
OF A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
PHOENIX METRO AREA...LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.
SE CA/SW AZ...WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING DOWN THE
CO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHTER N-NW WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FRI.
LOOKING AHEAD...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING WIND
SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE CRITERIA MET. BY MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/CB
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KTWC 070413
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
IS THEN FORECASTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
COCHISE COUNTY TONIGHT AS A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE WAS ANTICIPATED
THERE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL EITHER BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN BY 12Z FRI. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
THIS TREND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S LOWS AND
IN A SOME CASES A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AS THERE WILL BE LESS WIND
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ON THE COOL SIDE. THE COLDEST VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR COCHISE COUNTY FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. SINCE READINGS HAVE PREVIOUSLY FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF GRAHAM AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES HAVE NOT INCLUDED THOSE AREAS
IN THE FREEZE WARNING...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
ON THE OTHER HAND...ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS HAVE PREVIOUSLY FALLEN BELOW
FREEZING IN COCHISE COUNTY AND IN THIS CASE WE ARE LOOKING FOR MOST
OF COCHISE COUNTY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE A FAST MOVING AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS
THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES...
BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...IN THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES THAT AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT TOKEN/SINGLE DIGIT
POPS IN THE GRIDS (MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS) FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME HAS THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IN ADDITION...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING ZONE 35 12AM-8AM FRI.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 070332
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF ARIZONA WILL
BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AT 8 PM...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WINDS COULD KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST
10 DEGREES WARMER IN A FEW OF THE BREEZIER SPOTS. NO UPDATES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(230 PM MST THU NOV 6)...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY HEADING TO THE EAST.
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE
COLORADO PLATEAU AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UNDER A SINKING AIR MASS. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ON THE COOLISH SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. TONIGHT...IN LOCATIONS
PRONE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP A BIT BUT
THE WIND CHILL WILL MAKE IT FEEL VERY COLD. IN WIND PROTECTED
AREAS...EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.
FOR SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AS A FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT ON
THE SUNDAY STORM WITH THE GFS SHOWING COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS PUTTING A
STRONGER SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE
GROUND AS FAR AS THE FORECAST BUT BE ADVISED...THERE STILL IS SOME
CHANCE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT OF THE
SEASON FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET ON SUNDAY IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION IS CORRECT. BEYOND SUNDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KT GUSTING UP TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......JJ / MCCOLLUM
AVIATION....JJ
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070131
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
630 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING MOST NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA...AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
SUNDAY. SUBSEQUENT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SKIES CLEAR AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER
TEENS OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 15-25
DEGREES BEHIND YESTERDAY MOST LOCALES. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOL MORNING TONIGHT...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH ARE EXPECTED. STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST...CENTERED ACROSS WRN CO...WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT NE-SW
SURFACE GRADIENT TONIGHT ACROSS AZ. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LATE
NIGHT/MORNING BREEZINESS WHICH SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS UP A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES...SO MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THEIR TRUE
POTENTIAL.
PROGS AGREE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER AZ FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOR CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS SAT MORNING SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL NICELY...AND PROBABLY BE LOWER IN MANY SPOTS THAN
TONIGHTS LOWS. GRADUAL MIXING EACH DAY SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
RISE AND THEY SHOULD REACH TO ABOUT SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY...THEN RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...AND DRY...SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SRN
NV/CA AND ACROSS AZ ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS RUN IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE ALL BEEN OF A
SIMILAR NATURE. EURO IS DEEPER THAN GFS...AND BASED ON RECENT TRACK
RECORD AND HPC MODEL DISCUSSION...TEND TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION.
IN EITHER CASE THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY FOR US AND AS SUCH WE WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER SRN GILA COUNTY. WE
HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP A BIT...SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS GRADIENTS
REALLY TIGHTEN. AND WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALUES FOR MAX TEMPS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST
OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS. AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS OFF TO OUR EAST
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...DRIER SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. THUS MONDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WE HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS MONDAY 3-5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS FORECAST.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EUROPEAN AND GFS DIVERGE A BIT BUT BOTH
SUGGEST TROFFING WILL MOVE THRU THE WEST...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE A
BIT UNSETTLED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MANY MEMBERS SHOW EITHER OPEN
WAVE OR EVEN CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT
THE CLIMO POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY. THESE POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE MEX MOS
NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST BY BOTH PROGS FOR THURSDAY...SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A BIT
OF A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
PHOENIX METRO AREA...LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.
SE CA/SW AZ...WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING DOWN THE
CO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHTER N-NW WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FRI.
LOOKING AHEAD...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING WIND
SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE CRITERIA MET. BY MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 062136 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING MOST NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA...AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
SUNDAY. SUBSEQUENT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SKIES CLEAR AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER
TEENS OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 15-25
DEGREES BEHIND YESTERDAY MOST LOCALES. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOL MORNING TONIGHT...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH ARE EXPECTED. STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST...CENTERED ACROSS WRN CO...WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT NE-SW
SURFACE GRADIENT TONIGHT ACROSS AZ. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LATE
NIGHT/MORNING BREEZINESS WHICH SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS UP A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES...SO MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THEIR TRUE
POTENTIAL.
PROGS AGREE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER AZ FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOR CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS SAT MORNING SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL NICELY...AND PROBABLY BE LOWER IN MANY SPOTS THAN
TONIGHTS LOWS. GRADUAL MIXING EACH DAY SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
RISE AND THEY SHOULD REACH TO ABOUT SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY...THEN RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...AND DRY...SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SRN
NV/CA AND ACROSS AZ ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS RUN IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE ALL BEEN OF A
SIMILAR NATURE. EURO IS DEEPER THAN GFS...AND BASED ON RECENT TRACK
RECORD AND HCP MODEL DISCUSSION...TEND TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION.
IN EITHER CASE THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY FOR US AND AS SUCH WE WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER SRN GILA COUNTY. WE
HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP A BIT...SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS GRADIENTS
REALLY TIGHTEN. AND WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALUES FOR MAX TEMPS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST
OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS. AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS OFF TO OUR EAST
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...DRIER SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. THUS MONDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WE HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS MONDAY 3-5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS FORECAST.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EUROPEAN AND GFS DIVERGE A BIT BUT BOTH
SUGGEST TROFFING WILL MOVE THRU THE WEST...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE A
BIT UNSETTLED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MANY MEMBERS SHOW EITHER OPEN
WAVE OR EVEN CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT
THE CLIMO POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY. THESE POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE MEX MOS
NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST BY BOTH PROGS FOR THURSDAY...SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A BIT
OF A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...KNYL...AND KBLH
AIRPORTS. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY /INCLUDING KBLH AND
KNYL/ THROUGH 01Z FRI. AT KIPL...EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE WNW WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SURROUNDING AIRPORTS.
SFC WINDS ALREADY HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE WEST AT KPHX AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO OF 10 TO 15
KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF
THE ENE AFTER 03Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
KPHX/KIWA...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
AT 2000 FT AGL TO 30 KTS IN SOME SPOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE CRITERIA MET. BY MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 062135
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF ARIZONA WILL
BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS WAS
REMAINED CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY HEADING TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UNDER A SINKING AIR MASS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LOCATIONS
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOLISH
SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. TONIGHT...IN LOCATIONS PRONE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP A BIT BUT THE WIND CHILL WILL MAKE
IT FEEL VERY COLD. IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS...EXPECT WELL BELOW
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.
FOR SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AS A FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT ON
THE SUNDAY STORM WITH THE GFE SHOWING COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS PUTTING A
STRONGER SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLD A BREEZY CONDITIONS. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE
GROUND AS FAR AS THE FORECAST BUT BE ADVISED...THERE STILL IS SOME
CHANCE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT OF THE
SEASON FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET ON SUNDAY IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION IS CORRECT. BEYOND SUNDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND HIGHER TERRAIN
SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......MCCOLLUM
AVIATION....41
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KTWC 062046
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
146 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
IS THEN FORECASTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
THIS TREND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S LOWS AND
IN A SOME CASES A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AS THERE WILL BE LESS WIND
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ON THE COOL SIDE. THE COLDEST VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR COCHISE COUNTY FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. SINCE READINGS HAVE PREVIOUSLY FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF GRAHAM AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES HAVE NOT INCLUDED THOSE AREAS
IN THE FREEZE WARNING...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
ON THE OTHER HAND...ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS HAVE PREVIOUSLY FALLEN BELOW
FREEZING IN COCHISE COUNTY AND IN THIS CASE WE ARE LOOKING FOR MOST
OF COCHISE COUNTY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE A FAST MOVING AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS
THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES...
BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...IN THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES THAT AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT TOKEN/SINGLE DIGIT
POPS IN THE GRIDS (MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS) FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME HAS THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IN ADDITION...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL EITHER BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING ZONE 35 12AM-8AM FRI.
$$
ZELL
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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