[top]
000
FXUS65 KPIH 090255
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
755 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG DIGGING OF WEST COAST
TROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA. THERE ALSO IS A SMALLER CIRCULATION IN
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON WHERE SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING. BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL INCH
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BUT LAPSE RATES SHOULD DECREASE
ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THEN. THE 00Z NAM12 MODEL
SHOWS THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH SUN VALLEY AREA ON SUNDAY WHERE EARLIER RUNS WERE
MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH. OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS IN AND AROUND THE
CHALLIS AREA COULD IMPROVE FOR SUNDAY AND FORECAST POPS WILL BE
ADJUSTED UPWARDS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE IN THE NE CORNER OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO
A MINOR UPPER WAVE. MUCH OF THIS SHOULD DIE OFF BY EVENING...BUT A
DEEP UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US TONIGHT. MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PAC MSTR INTO THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN PARTS. THE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY GOING WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. IDAHO IS LEFT BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. BOTH GFS AND NAM RUNS THIS MORNING
ARE GENERATING LESS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FOR THIS SYSTEM. IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT...SO WILL DROP THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOF IDZ025.
PRECIP WILL STILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA BEGINNING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST LOWER PRECIP
AMOUNTS.
THE UPPER TROF BECOMES DISORGANIZED BY SUN NIGHT...AND STILL COVERS
A LARGE PART OF THE NRN ROCKIES THRU MONDAY. PRECIP WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERY
PRECIP. NWO FLOW DOMINATES ON TUESDAY...BUT THE TRAJECTORY WILL
ALLOW PAC MSTR TO FLOW INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
MTN SHOWERS...BUT THE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
HEDGES
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS BEGINNING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH DETAILS IN EXTENDED
PERIOD. GFS HIGHLIGHTS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GOOD INFLUX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BY FRIDAY IN GREAT BASIN AND THE RIDGE DOMINATING BY NEXT
SATURDAY. EUROPEAN ALMOST IDENTICAL THOUGH NOT AS WET AS GFS IN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME BUT STILL SHOWING SOME
PRECIPITATION. IT ALSO BUILDS SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE BY NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT PRECIPITATION IN GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN
STARTED TO CUT BACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND BEGAN TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THE LAST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST.
GK
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT AS PACIFIC TROF MOVES EAST
AND EXPECT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO SUN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN TAF SITES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS65 KBOI 082200
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
300 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POWERFUL AND COMPLEX SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US TODAY WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH...SO
OUR QPF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN. HOWEVER...MOST
EVERYONE WILL SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH..ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH...BUT BECAUSE OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...ITS PASSAGE
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT NOTICEABLE. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT REALLY
INCREASE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY..WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MINIMAL.
ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN HIGH EVEN AS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAINS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE REGION RIGHT BEHIND IT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANYTHING FROM THIS WEAK SECOND SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEW
WEEK IS THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVEL WILL QUICKLY RISE TO
8-9000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT RAIN AS PRECIP WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCH. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST...
THIS FOCUSES THE FLOW INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEING REPORTED ACROSS EAST TO
NORTHEAST OREGON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT
REMAINS CONSISTENT. PUSHING THROUGH KBNO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN THROUGH KMYL AND KBOI THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS
AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH...SO
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....CR/DD
AVIATION.....CR
000
FXUS65 KPIH 082041
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
140 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE IN THE NE CORNER OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO
A MINOR UPPER WAVE. MUCH OF THIS SHOULD DIE OFF BY EVENING...BUT A
DEEP UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US TONIGHT. MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PAC MSTR INTO THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN PARTS. THE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY GOING WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. IDAHO IS LEFT BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. BOTH GFS AND NAM RUNS THIS MORNING
ARE GENERATING LESS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FOR THIS SYSTEM. IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT...SO WILL DROP THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOF IDZ025.
PRECIP WILL STILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA BEGINNING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST LOWER PRECIP
AMOUNTS.
THE UPPER TROF BECOMES DISORGANIZED BY SUN NIGHT...AND STILL COVERS
A LARGE PART OF THE NRN ROCKIES THRU MONDAY. PRECIP WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERY
PRECIP. NWO FLOW DOMINATES ON TUESDAY...BUT THE TRAJECTORY WILL
ALLOW PAC MSTR TO FLOW INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
MTN SHOWERS...BUT THE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
HEDGES
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS BEGINNING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH DETAILS IN EXTENDED
PERIOD. GFS HIGHLIGHTS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GOOD INFLUX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BY FRIDAY IN GREAT BASIN AND THE RIDGE DOMINATING BY NEXT
SATURDAY. EUROPEAN ALMOST IDENTICAL THOUGH NOT AS WET AS GFS IN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME BUT STILL SHOWING SOME
PRECIPITATION. IT ALSO BUILDS SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE BY NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT PRECIPITATION IN GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN
STARTED TO CUT BACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND BEGAN TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THE LAST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST.
GK
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT AS PACIFIC TROF MOVES EAST
AND EXPECT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO SUN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN TAF SITES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 081636
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW
TODAY. THIS WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
STRONG JET MAX IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT THIS TIME AND
THIS WILL DRIVE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT...OUR
AREA WILL BE IN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE GOOD DYNAMICS...AND
OUR FORECAST IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS IT WOULD OTHERWISE BE. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS MORNING TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS A FEW OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR KONO. VIS IS BEGINNING TO COME
UP OVER THE LAST HOUR AND EXPECT THESE AREAS SHOULD BE FOG FREE
BETWEEN 17-18Z. RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH
TODAY DECREASING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OREGON TNGT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL DEALING WITH PATCHY FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG REPORTED IN BURNS AND
MCCALL...AND SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY. ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS MORNING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME WEAK RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WAS ENTERING THE
PACNW AT THIS TIME. NORTHERN PART OF THE STORM WILL STAY NORTH WHILE
JET STREAM REINVIGORATES THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPS A
MID/UPPER LOW WHICH TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE QPF
AMOUNTS...WITH MODELS SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF QPF.
DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES WENT WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN AT ABOVE
7000 FEET FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW TOTALS.
CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. ALONG
WITH THE SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
IT...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PREFERRED THE MORE ROBUST
NAM12 WINDS WITH THE FRONT VS THE WEAKER GFS...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
SIGNIFICANT.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY. GFS INDICATES A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT
TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MOIST PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS HINTING AT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FORMING BY SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN POPS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY DUE TO THE OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....CR
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SL
000
FXUS65 KPIH 081052
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
352 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM WILL GET UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS A SPLITTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL CROSS OVER EASTERN IDAHO. THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS
WILL BE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MTNS ESPECIALLY NEAR ISLAND PARK AND
YELLOWSTONE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. PARTS OF THE UPPER SNAKE
REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH MOST OF YESTERDAY.
THE FOG HAS BECOME MORE VARIABLE BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED IN
PLACE. ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE MORNING FCST GRID CALLS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND VALLEYS IN THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGH MTN SNOWFALL.
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ...ALL MODEL FCSTS ARE
CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SPLIT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW AND HEAD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THE
REMAINING ENERGY WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN TO REMAIN AROUND 6500 FEET TONIGHT...RISING
TO AROUND 7000 FEET ON SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND JUMP BACK TO AROUND 5500-6000
FEET DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH A SPLIT FLOW TENDS TO DECREASE THE
CHANCES OF A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT...PLENTY OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. THE HARDEST
HIT AREAS APPEAR TO BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND IN THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MTNS. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS RIGHT
NOW ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES GENERALLY ABOVE 7000
FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MTNS...2 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOOKING AT THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE IDAHO WASATCH ABOVE 7500
FEET DO REACH THE 9 INCH THRESHOLD FOR WINTER STORM
CRITERIA...THEREFORE A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. TRENDS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE SNOWFALL IN THIS REGION. FOR
THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS...2 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN 48 HOURS.
AS FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN/MAGIC VALLEY....THINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PLAIN DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...WITH THE OPPOSITE BECOMING THE CASE
LATER SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO MONDAY. THIS IS DUE TO WRAPAROUND
FLOW AT MID LEVELS WHICH CREATES UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SE MTNS. CURRENT
FCST CALLS FOR AROUND 1 INCH IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES FOR THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A FACTOR BEGINNING LATER TOMORROW DUE AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BUT
WINDS WILL SHOULD NOT BE STRONG OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CREATE
MAJOR PROBLEMS WEATHERWISE. KEYES
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODERATE POPS REMAIN IN FCST GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN MODEL STRENGTH AND
TIMING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. UPSHOT IS THAT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE AND MOIST THUS KEPT
POPS ABOVE CLIMO ALL AREAS. REMAINDER OF FCST CHARACTERIZED BY
DIRTY FLAT RIDGE OVER REGION WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HEIGHTS OVER
EASTERN IDAHO. KEPT MODERATE POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BUT REDUCED
POPS TOWARD CLIMO OVER SNAKE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. SNOW VS
RAIN WILL BE TRICKY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
TO VALLEY FLOORS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. VALLEYS LIKELY
TO SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
THROUGHOUT. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE VALLEY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COULD
SEE CONDITIONS VARIABLE AT KIFR AND HAVE KEPT IFR CONDITIONS IN FCST
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GOOD DRYING OUT AT
MID AND LOW LEVELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM
SHOULD START PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO
MVFR OR LOWER BEGINNING AT KSUN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SPREADING TO REMAIND OF TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR IDZ025.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 081027
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL DEALING WITH PATCHY FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG REPORTED IN BURNS AND
MCCALL...AND SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY. ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS MORNING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME WEAK RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WAS ENTERING THE
PACNW AT THIS TIME. NORTHERN PART OF THE STORM WILL STAY NORTH WHILE
JET STREAM REINVIGORATES THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPS A
MID/UPPER LOW WHICH TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE QPF
AMOUNTS...WITH MODELS SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF QPF.
DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES WENT WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN AT ABOVE
7000 FEET FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW TOTALS.
CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. ALONG
WITH THE SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
IT...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PREFERRED THE MORE ROBUST
NAM12 WINDS WITH THE FRONT VS THE WEAKER GFS...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
SIGNIFICANT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY. GFS INDICATES A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT
TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MOIST PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS HINTING AT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FORMING BY SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN POPS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY DUE TO THE OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE IN SE OREGON AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING...CREATING MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AS
CEILINGS WILL AVERAGE 2K TO 5K FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
20Z IN EASTERN OREGON...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. MVFR
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE TREASURE VALLEY AND EAST AFTER
21Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WINDS ALOFT. NUMEROUS
RAIN...AND MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SL
AVIATION.....SL
000
FXUS65 KBOI 080413
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
913 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
WILL PROVIDE MOIST S FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE BLUES
THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER MTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO WITH ISOLATED VALLEY SHOWERS. MINOR
ZFP UPDATE FOR HIGHER POPS ZONE 11. THE MOIST/CLOUDY WARM SECTOR
WILL BE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SE OREGON SATURDAY EVENING AND SW
IDAHO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT PLAN TO ADD THUNDER THIS SHIFT
HOWEVER THERE IS A HINT OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON POSITION OF THE FRONT IN SE OREGON...150 J/KG CAPE AND
NON-POSITIVE LIFTED INDICES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DECREASING SHOWERS AND COOLER WX SUNDAY THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS BAKER COUNTY INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AVERAGING 2K TO 5K FT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. MVFR RAIN SHOWERS
SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE TREASURE VALLEY BY 18Z. SNOW LEVELS
APPROXIMATELY 7500 FT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WARM SECTOR AIR MASS NOW FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER. WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. THUS...MILDER
TEMPERATURES WILL NOW BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DUE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RECENT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT FROPA...AND THUS MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE A FORECAST PROBLEM FOR SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IN THIS SLOWER TIMING TO HAVE SATURDAY TEMPERATURES EQUAL
OR EXCEED THOSE OF TODAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD GUIDANCE NUMBERS
HOWEVER IN CASE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. PRECIP
PROBABILITY INCREASES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM THE VANCOUVER ISLAND AREA
AND CLOSES OFF IN OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
FRAME...SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S...MORE TYPICAL OF MID NOVEMBER.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ON ISSUING WSW HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME SINCE EACH
NEW RUN HAS BEEN COMING IN A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
SLOWER TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED WARMER/SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING SNOW LEVELS
RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FORECAST TREND WAS
TO INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY STILL POSES THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF TWIN FALLS AND OWYHEE COUNTIES WHERE 700 MB WINDS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
OREGON ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SW IDAHO. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVES INTO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...GS
PREV LONG TERM....MT/DD
000
FXUS65 KBOI 072211
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...WARM SECTOR AIR MASS NOW FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER. WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. THUS...MILDER
TEMPERATURES WILL NOW BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DUE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RECENT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT FROPA...AND THUS MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE A FORECAST PROBLEM FOR SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IN THIS SLOWER TIMING TO HAVE SATURDAY TEMPERATURES EQUAL
OR EXCEED THOSE OF TODAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD GUIDANCE NUMBERS
HOWEVER IN CASE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. PRECIP
PROBABILITY INCREASES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM THE VANCOUVER ISLAND AREA
AND CLOSES OFF IN OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
FRAME...SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S...MORE TYPICAL OF MID NOVEMBER.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ON ISSUING WSW HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME SINCE EACH
NEW RUN HAS BEEN COMING IN A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
SLOWER TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED WARMER/SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING SNOW LEVELS
RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FORECAST TREND WAS
TO INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY STILL POSES THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF TWIN FALLS AND OWYHEE COUNTIES WHERE 700 MB WINDS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
OREGON ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SW IDAHO. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVES INTO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS SW IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AVERAGING 2K TO 5K FT.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE W CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING KBKE AND KMYL. SNOW LEVELS APPROXIMATELY 7500 FT. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM....MT/DD
AVIATION.....MT
000
FXUS65 KPIH 072111
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
211 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEARING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS CLEARING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME AFTERNOON MIXING
AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REAPPEAR THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME PINNING DOWN THE SITUATION. 12Z NAM SHOWED
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EARLY
TOMORROW. THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM NOW HAS BACKED OFF OF THE EARLIER
SOLUTION ALMOST ENTIRELY. ONLY REAL CERTAINTY IS THAT THE
NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR YELLOWSTONE AND THE TETONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE PRECIPITATION AS AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
SQUEEZED OUT BY THE MOUNTAINS. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS WHOLE SYSTEM ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC SINCE
850MB WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ARE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF IT (+6) GIVE OR
TAKE. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000-7500FT.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE LOWS ARE NEAR FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES. FEELING IS THAT MIN TEMP GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY TOO COLD
WHILE A STRICT TRADITIONAL GUESS OF SNOW LEVELS FROM 850MB WET
BULB ZERO IS TOO HIGH SINCE IT MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR SURFACE
DEW POINTS WHICH ARE LOWER. THE FORECAST KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY
AND COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. PLACES IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL
ACTUALLY SETS UP.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEEKEND STORM LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW CLOSES OFF SO KEPT
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY LOWEST AT
THIS POINT. LONG RANGE MODELS NOW IN PRETTY BIG DISAGREEMENT NEXT
WEEK. GFS VERY STRONG AND WET WITH NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND DRIER WITH SYSTEM PRIOR TO THAT ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH DRIER MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW DID NOT ADJUST PRECIPITATION GRIDS MUCH AND KEPT THE
WET TYPE FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH GFS SOLUTION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL WILL SEE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WARMING BY
FRIDAY.
GK
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PERSISTED IN IDAHO
FALLS ALL DAY AND EXPECT IFR TO MVFR TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
THERE. SUN AND BYI VFR ALL DAY AND PIH IMPROVED TO VFR PRESENTLY AS
WELL. BROUGHT IN SOME LATE NIGHT MVFR TO PIH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
CLEARING HAS WORKED INTO BYI AT 1 PM AS WELL. KEPT VFR AT SUN AND
BYI INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN WEST
TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A RETURN TO MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS.
GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 071702
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST AREA RIGHT ON THE EDGE AT THIS TIME OF WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...AND EXTENSIVE WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. POTENTIAL FOR VERY MILD CONDITIONS IF
ENOUGH CLEARING WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HENCE THIS IS A
TOUGH MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 50S CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE AND THUS WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THESE TEMPERATURES. BUT A HEADS UP TO HIGHER TEMPS IF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED CLEARING HAPPENS. WILL UPDATE IF REQUIRED. ANOTHER MILD
DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A MAJOR CHANGE AND DEVELOPING WET
PATTERN. MORE DETAILS ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG /AND LOW IFR CONDITIONS/ WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SE OREGON THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF SW IDAHO - CEILINGS AVERAGING
BETWEEN 2K AND 5K FEET. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT
LOCAL MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY OR AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT STALLED IN OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND
LOW-MID CLOUDS STAYED AROUND ALL DAY. BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING IN MALHEUR COUNTY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING... SPREADING EAST. PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER YESTERDAY IN OUR SWRN ZONES...BUT
PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING IN NRN AND ERN ZONES. DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT BNO AND WE HAVE JUST NOW ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR
IT. FOG ALSO BEGINNING NEAR MYL AND PROBABLY NEAR BKE. PCPN HAS
RETREATED TO OUR NRN-MOST ZONES AND ONLY THOSE ZONES WILL HAVE ANY
CHANCE OF PCPN TODAY. FOR TONIGHT THE MAV AND MET DISAGREE WIDELY
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PCPN AS PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...MAV POP
TONIGHT AT MYL ONLY 7 PCT WHILE MET SHOWED 85 PCT. WE PREFER DRIER
MAV BUT OFFICES TO OUR NORTH FAVOR THE WETTER NAM. PCPN BOUNDARY
WILL THEREFORE BE FORECAST NEAR 44-45N TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY BOTH
GFS AND NAM BRING A MOISTURE-BEARING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENEWD ACROSS
OUR SRN ZONES WHILE NRN ZONES HAVE GENERAL LIGHT RAIN...SNOW LEVEL
NEAR 8000 FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MOIST PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...AND DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN ZONES...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS
THE EAST. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL JET...WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 18Z TODAY IN ORZ061.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...GS
PREV DISCUSSION...LC
LONG TERM....SL
AVIATION.....MT
000
FXUS65 KPIH 071501
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
801 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN NORTHEAST IDAHO NEAR THE
TETON/YELLOWSTONE AREA. NEEDED TO RAISE CHANCES SINCE WEB CAMS ARE
SHOWING SNOW FALLING IN THE HENRYS LAKE/TETON PASS/ALPINE
JUNCTION AREAS. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THAT AREA. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MAINLY LIGHT EXCEPT AS ONE APPROACHES WYOMING WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POUR ACROSS TOP OF BRIEF RIDGING THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MTNS NEAR ISLAND PARK AND
YELLOWSTONE WHERE MOISTURE TRAJECTORY AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL
KEEP PRECIP GOING. LOCALIZED ONE INCH SNOWFALLS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SAT AFTN. RAIN AND/OR SNOW TONIGHT WILL REMAINED
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WATER EQUIVALENT.
BY SAT AFTN...MODELS ALREADY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. THERE IS A
TREND TOWARD SPLIT FLOW WITH SOUTHERN PART FORMING A CLOSED LOW
AND TAKING IT SOUTHWARD. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS TAKING IT TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS...WHILE THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH
ALONG THE UT/ID BORDERS. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND
WITH SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY...IT IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. HAVING SAID THAT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MTNS WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS FOR THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ARE FELT. CURRENT FCST USES A BLEND OF MODEL PRECIP
AMOUNTS...WHICH VERY WELL MAY TURN OUT CONSERVATIVE. FROM 00Z
SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY...UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS AS WELL AS THE SE MTNS. LIGHTER AMTS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE INCLUDING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS OF TAKING THIS
SYSTEM EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD CREATE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS AS WELL AS SOME UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. REPEATING...EVEN THOUGH
THE EVENT IS GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MODELS SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY
IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS. HOPEFULLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A BETTER IDEA OF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN
AND SNOW WILL COME TO FRUITION. HEADLINES FOR WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND
WEATHER EVENT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. KEYES
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL MOIST PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. GFS...EC...AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL DEPICT BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFTING EAST TO GREAT PLAINS BY TUESDAY. BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY BUT GFS MAINTAINS WEAK DIRTY RIDGE
SCENARIO AHEAD OF NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND SLIGHT RUN-TO-RUN
CHANGES...HAVE LEFT BROAD BRUSHED POPS ACROSS FCST AREA THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP DAY
TO DAY BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATE DUE TO EXPECTED PRECIP.
DMH
AVIATION...WEAK MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN REGIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE SNAKE
VALLEY THIS MORNING...POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO VFR. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 070945
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONT STALLED IN OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID
CLOUDS STAYED AROUND ALL DAY. BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING IN MALHEUR COUNTY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...
SPREADING EAST. PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER YESTERDAY IN OUR SWRN ZONES...BUT PERSISTENT
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING IN NRN AND ERN ZONES. DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT BNO AND WE HAVE JUST NOW ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR IT.
FOG ALSO BEGINNING NEAR MYL AND PROBABLY NEAR BKE. PCPN HAS
RETREATED TO OUR NRN-MOST ZONES AND ONLY THOSE ZONES WILL HAVE ANY
CHANCE OF PCPN TODAY. FOR TONIGHT THE MAV AND MET DISAGREE WIDELY
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PCPN AS PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...MAV POP
TONIGHT AT MYL ONLY 7 PCT WHILE MET SHOWED 85 PCT. WE PREFER DRIER
MAV BUT OFFICES TO OUR NORTH FAVOR THE WETTER NAM. PCPN BOUNDARY
WILL THEREFORE BE FORECAST NEAR 44-45N TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY BOTH
GFS AND NAM BRING A MOISTURE-BEARING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENEWD ACROSS
OUR SRN ZONES WHILE NRN ZONES HAVE GENERAL LIGHT RAIN...SNOW LEVEL
NEAR 8000 FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MOIST PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...AND DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN ZONES...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS
THE EAST. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL JET...WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SW IDAHO AND EASTERN
OREGON PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN OREGON THROUGH AT
LEAST 12-15Z AND ACROSS SW IDAHO THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. FOG IN
EASTERN OREGON AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR AND ISOLATED LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. ISOLATED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON
TODAY WILL CREATE LOCAL MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WNW
WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 18Z TODAY IN ORZ061.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SL
AVIATION.....SL
000
FXUS65 KPIH 070943
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
243 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POUR ACROSS TOP OF BRIEF RIDGING THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MTNS NEAR ISLAND PARK AND
YELLOWSTONE WHERE MOISTURE TRAJECTORY AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL
KEEP PRECIP GOING. LOCALIZED ONE INCH SNOWFALLS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SAT AFTN. RAIN AND/OR SNOW TONIGHT WILL REMAINED
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WATER EQUIVALENT.
BY SAT AFTN...MODELS ALREADY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. THERE IS A
TREND TOWARD SPLIT FLOW WITH SOUTHERN PART FORMING A CLOSED LOW
AND TAKING IT SOUTHWARD. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS TAKING IT TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS...WHILE THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH
ALONG THE UT/ID BORDERS. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND
WITH SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY...IT IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. HAVING SAID THAT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MTNS WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS FOR THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ARE FELT. CURRENT FCST USES A BLEND OF MODEL PRECIP
AMOUNTS...WHICH VERY WELL MAY TURN OUT CONSERVATIVE. FROM 00Z
SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY...UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS AS WELL AS THE SE MTNS. LIGHTER AMTS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE INCLUDING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS OF TAKING THIS
SYSTEM EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD CREATE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS AS WELL AS SOME UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. REPEATING...EVEN THOUGH
THE EVENT IS GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MODELS SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY
IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS. HOPEFULLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A BETTER IDEA OF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN
AND SNOW WILL COME TO FRUITION. HEADLINES FOR WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND
WEATHER EVENT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. KEYES
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL MOIST PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. GFS...EC...AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL DEPICT BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFTING EAST TO GREAT PLAINS BY TUESDAY. BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY BUT GFS MAINTAINS WEAK DIRTY RIDGE
SCENARIO AHEAD OF NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND SLIGHT RUN-TO-RUN
CHANGES...HAVE LEFT BROADBRUSHED POPS ACROSS FCST AREA THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP DAY
TO DAY BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATE DUE TO EXPECTED PRECIP.
DMH
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN REGIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE SNAKE
VALLEY THIS MORNING...POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO VFR. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 070430
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS STILL OUT THERE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH AND FORECAST SEEMS TO
HAVE THAT DEPICTED WELL WITH MOST CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE DIFFICULTY IS WITH TEMPERATURES.
LOW CLOUDS STUCK ALONG THE WARM FRONT ARE KEEPING THE SURFACE FROM
REALIZING THE TREMENDOUS WARMING GOING ON ALOFT AND PLAYING HAVOC
WITH SURFACE RADIATION. MODELS INSIST THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT
BREAK UP UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY IN OREGON AND LATE FRIDAY IN IDAHO.
THAT WILL CAUSE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WE
HAVE FORECAST. WILL CHANGE TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY IN AN UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET AGL WILL
OBSCURE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW
CLOUDS SLOWLY SHIFTING NE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
THIS CLOUD DECK OVER ALL TAFS SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
BASED ON THIS WILL TREND TAF FORECAST TOWARDS MVFR-LOW VFR CIGS IN
SE OREGON THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AND IN SW IDAHO THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z
BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
SURFACE AND ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA...BUT IN
REALITY HAS BEEN ALMOST STATIONARY TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN ALONG IT. THIS CONTINUES AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WRAPS UP DOWNSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO INTENSIFY AND AMPLIFY. THUS...LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD AND LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE WARM
FROM WILL MOVE NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL TAKE AWHILE LONGER TO OCCUR...MOST LIKELY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. RAIN AND SNOW ALONG FRONT THIS EVENING IS VERY LIGHT AND IN
MANY CASES EVEN DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMING AND
DRYING EXPECTED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH UPPER
WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY...THUS ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH
NORTH AND EAST. FRIDAY MAX TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AND MAY IN
FACT GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST IF SUN BREAKS OCCUR ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN WARM SECTOR AIR MASS. FRIDAY
NOT A BAD WEATHER DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MAJOR COOL
AND WET PATTERN SET FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...TB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...GS
PREV LONG TERM....DG/DD
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