000
FXUS62 KCHS 081946
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
246 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINING WEAK COLD ADVECTION. LITTLE
DEWPOINT RECOVERY ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...THUS LOW TO MID 30S
DEWPOINTS SHOULD PERSIST. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALTHOUGH GEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAMPER THIS SOMEWHAT.
OUR FARTHEST INLAND ZONES WILL PROBABLY DROP INTO THE MID 30S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S CENTRAL
TO MID 40S COASTAL. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS GO
CALM EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE SUNNY
SKIES AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SUPPLYING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE WELL INLAND EACH MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD WARM NICELY TO NEAR NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...A WEDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH...
CAUSING OUR WINDS TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASING THE MOISTURE. STILL...A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT. I
THINK IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...HOLDING IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN THE GFS SHOWS. TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DEEPENS QUICKLY AND HEADS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM VARIES GREATLY AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS...SO I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE BASED
ON THAT UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF THE GFS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CORRECT
SOLUTION...POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS COULD START TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ABOUT
20 KT OF SW FLOW AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE. WILL CARRY 15-20 KT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY.
HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT INCREASE...WITH SCA SEAS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND
WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL/ALSHEIMER

000
FXUS62 KGSP 081942
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATO-CU SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE TN BORDER AFTER 06 UTC
TONIGHT AS A COOL AND COMPARATIVELY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WORKS IT/S
WAY INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES STATES. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER. IN FACT...THE THERMAL
BELT LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
PROBABLY SEE LIMITED RH RECOVERY AGAIN TONIGHT. FORTUNATELY THE
WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER THAN TODAY BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...BUT IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP RH/S WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A MAJOR TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. WHEREAS DRY/COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY EARLY TUESDAY...
AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SW TROUGHS LIFTS OVER THE AREA WITHIN
FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS THE MTNS...WHERE CHANCE
POPS WILL BE FORECAST. COOL THICKNESS VALUES ON MONDAY...AND INCR
CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY SHOULD ACT TO HOLD TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...VARYING DEGREES OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS STILL
ON TRACK TO BE AFFECTING THE CWFA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITHIN THE
DEEP SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECTING TO
MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING SENSIBLE WX FCST...MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAX TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. RATHER DYNAMIC LOOKING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...SO WILL BE
MAINTAINING SOLID CHANCE POPS THRU DAY 6...MAY EVEN NEED A TSTM
MENTION. POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
BE SETTING UP FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SW TO WSW THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES SAVE KAVL WHICH WILL HAVE IT/S USUAL POST
FRONTAL NNW FLOW. STILL LOOKING FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KTS AT KAND
ONCE THE BETTER MIXING BEGINS. NO CLOUD CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT AND MAY EVEN GO CALM IN THE
PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE W TO WNW TOMORROW. RIGHT NOW
I THINK THE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE N OF DUE WEST AT KCLT...BUT WITH
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE ERRATIC AT TIMES. A
FEW STRATO-CU COLD WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE KAVL VCNTY LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW LOOKS A LITTLE TOO WESTERLY FOR THAT TO BE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NGHT AND MONDAY. THE
WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A WEAK FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND PATCHY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT DRAMATICALLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN SC UPSTATE...NE GA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC MTNS. THROUGH
AROUND 5 PM RH/S WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS
AREA...AND WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. THEREAFTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE...THOUGH RH WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
OVERNIGHT. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NC..SC AND GA...WILL ISSUE A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH 00 UTC FOR NC...BUT NOT FOR THE OTHER
STATES ATTM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MCAVOY
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS62 KCAE 081927
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
227 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
AROUND SUNSET. NEW AIRMASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT EARLY MORNING FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL
MS VALLEY. TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. POSSIBLE WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
GMOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY GFS INDICATES
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN
SITU WEDGE MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY ACCORDING TO
THE GFS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS GRIDDED VALUES WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW GONE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNLIMITED VSBYS. EARLY ON UNTIL SUNSET...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST TO 18-20 KT. THEN WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 081923
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATO-CU SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE TN BORDER AFTER 06 UTC
TONIGHT AS A COOL AND COMPARATIVELY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WORKS IT/S
WAY INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES STATES. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER. IN FACT...THE THERMAL
BELT LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
PROBABLY SEE LIMITED RH RECOVERY AGAIN TONIGHT. FORTUNATELY THE
WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER THAN TODAY BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...BUT IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP RH/S WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A MAJOR TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. WHEREAS DRY/COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY EARLY TUESDAY...
AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SW TROUGHS LIFTS OVER THE AREA WITHIN
FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS THE MTNS...WHERE CHANCE
POPS WILL BE FORECAST. COOL THICKNESS VALUES ON MONDAY...AND INCR
CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY SHOULD ACT TO HOLD TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...VARYING DEGREES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARE STILL
ON TRACK TO BE AFFECTING THE CWFA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITHIN
THE DEEP SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
EXPECTING TO MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING SENSIBLE WX
FCST...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAX TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. RATHER DYNAMIC
LOOKING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...SO WILL BE MAINTAINING SOLID CHANCE POPS THRU DAY 6...MAY
EVEN NEED A TSTM MENTION. POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SW TO WSW THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES SAVE KAVL WHICH WILL HAVE IT/S USUAL POST
FRONTAL NNW FLOW. STILL LOOKING FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KTS AT KAND
ONCE THE BETTER MIXING BEGINS. NO CLOUD CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT AND MAY EVEN GO CALM IN THE
PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE W TO WNW TOMORROW. RIGHT NOW
I THINK THE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE N OF DUE WEST AT KCLT...BUT WITH
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE ERRATIC AT TIMES. A
FEW STRATO-CU COLD WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE KAVL VCNTY LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW LOOKS A LITTLE TOO WESTERLY FOR THAT TO BE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NGHT AND MONDAY. THE
WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A WEAK FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND PATCHY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MCAVOY

000
FXUS62 KGSP 081748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1248 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE UPPER PLAINS STATES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MID WEEK...AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES EAST FROM TEXAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREDICTED AND I/VE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. I ALSO HAVE DEWPOINTS
BOTTOMING OUT A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS
STILL KEEPS US A HAIR ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURE IS QUITE LOW IN PARTS OF THE FA. THERE WAS SOME RAIN OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...UPSTATE AND NE GA...BUT THE NC FOOTHILLS RECEIVED
THE LEAST AMOUNT AND THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURE IS THE LOWEST. I
HOPE I HAVE TAKEN RH/S LOW ENOUGH IN THESE AREAS.

I/VE ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS A LITTLE OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.
KAND WAS ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 KTS AS OF 10 AM...AND THE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY UNLOAD
AS BREEZY WITH 30 MPH GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NE GA.
WHILE IT WON/T BE AS WINDY IN NC...SOME OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED
MOUNTAIN GAPS WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF
THIS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING WLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAA BUT FLOW NOT VERY STRONG OR EXACTLY
NORMAL THE THE MTN RIDGES. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY CLOUDS NEAR THE
TN BORDER. LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOL AIR MASS
REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...0Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY CLOSE
WITH THE SFC AND H5 FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...H5
LOWS WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC AND THE PLAINS...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE CWA. I WILL FORECAST CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AND LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...H5 TROF WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID WEST
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SFC WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TX/LA BORDER...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. I WILL ADVERTISE INCREASING POPS ON
TUESDAY...WITH 40 POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER TO 20-25 POPS EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFT WITH INCREASING PW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A MORE COMMON
SOLUTION IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.  IF THIS VERIFIES...THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR A THREE DAY PERIOD.  AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY ADVANCING EAST AND GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTH.  THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SHOULD
CROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS
AND EC.  THE GFS IS CERTAINLY HAS A DEEPER UPPER LOW AND MORE
INSTABILITY.  THE GFS HAS CAPES OF AROUND 500 CROSSING OUR FORECAST
AREA IN MID DAY FRIDAY.  THE EC DOES NOT HAVE THE LEVEL OF UPPER
SUPPORT AND LESS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY BUT DOES INDICATE A QPF
PREDICTION OF AROUND A HALF INCH.  BOTH HAVE ALL THAT MOVING OUT TO
THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND LEFT FOR THE NC
MOUNTAINS.  THE WRAP AROUND IS A BIT STRONGER IN THE GFS.  IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SO ONLY RAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SW TO WSW THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES SAVE KAVL WHICH WILL HAVE IT/S USUAL POST
FRONTAL NNW FLOW. STILL LOOKING FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KTS AT KAND
ONCE THE BETTER MIXING BEGINS. NO CLOUD CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT AND MAY EVEN GO CALM IN THE
PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE W TO WNW TOMORROW. RIGHT NOW
I THINK THE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE N OF DUE WEST AT KCLT...BUT WITH
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE ERRATIC AT TIMES. A
FEW STRATO-CU COLD WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE KAVL VCNTY LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW LOOKS A LITTLE TOO WESTERLY FOR THAT TO BE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NGHT AND MONDAY. THE
WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A WEAK FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND PATCHY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...MCAVOY/RWH

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081733
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1232 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD
INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY TRAVERSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A THIN BAND OF L0W AND MID CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT.
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. WEAK POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND
74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT
1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS 08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED/THU.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCAE 081723
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1223 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT AT 07Z MOVING EAST OF AND AND AHN. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF CAE BEFORE 12Z. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACROSS
THE AREA...LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
COLD ADVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKY. WRF MODEL VAD PROFILE SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
SLIGHTLY DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN STATES SUNDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST
MONDAY. AIRMASS QUITE DRY. DESPITE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS MONDAY
TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS APPEAR TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. POSSIBLE WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE STATES. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW GONE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNLIMITED VSBYS. EARLY ON UNTIL SUNSET...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST TO 18-20 KT. THEN WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07

000
FXUS62 KGSP 081543
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE UPPER PLAINS STATES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MID WEEK...AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES EAST FROM TEXAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREDICTED AND I/VE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. I ALSO HAVE DEWPOINTS
BOTTOMING OUT A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS
STILL KEEPS US A HAIR ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURE IS QUITE LOW IN PARTS OF THE FA. THERE WAS SOME RAIN OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...UPSTATE AND NE GA...BUT THE NC FOOTHILLS RECEIVED
THE LEAST AMOUNT AND THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURE IS THE LOWEST. I
HOPE I HAVE TAKEN RH/S LOW ENOUGH IN THESE AREAS.

I/VE ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS A LITTLE OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.
KAND WAS ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 KTS AS OF 10 AM...AND THE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY UNLOAD
AS BREEZY WITH 30 MPH GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NE GA.
WHILE IT WON/T BE AS WINDY IN NC...SOME OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED
MOUNTAIN GAPS WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF
THIS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING WLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAA BUT FLOW NOT VERY STRONG OR EXACTLY
NORMAL THE THE MTN RIDGES. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY CLOUDS NEAR THE
TN BORDER. LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOL AIR MASS
REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...0Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY CLOSE
WITH THE SFC AND H5 FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...H5
LOWS WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC AND THE PLAINS...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE CWA. I WILL FORECAST CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AND LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...H5 TROF WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID WEST
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SFC WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TX/LA BORDER...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. I WILL ADVERTISE INCREASING POPS ON
TUESDAY...WITH 40 POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER TO 20-25 POPS EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFT WITH INCREASING PW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A MORE COMMON
SOLUTION IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.  IF THIS VERIFIES...THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR A THREE DAY PERIOD.  AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY ADVANCING EAST AND GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTH.  THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SHOULD
CROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS
AND EC.  THE GFS IS CERTAINLY HAS A DEEPER UPPER LOW AND MORE
INSTABILITY.  THE GFS HAS CAPES OF AROUND 500 CROSSING OUR FORECAST
AREA IN MID DAY FRIDAY.  THE EC DOES NOT HAVE THE LEVEL OF UPPER
SUPPORT AND LESS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY BUT DOES INDICATE A QPF
PREDICTION OF AROUND A HALF INCH.  BOTH HAVE ALL THAT MOVING OUT TO
THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND LEFT FOR THE NC
MOUNTAINS.  THE WRAP AROUND IS A BIT STRONGER IN THE GFS.  IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SO ONLY RAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OUT
SOON. LEFT A ONE HOUR MVFR TEMPO AT KCLT JUST IN CASE THE LOWER
CLOUDS MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
AROUND NOON AS GOOD MIXING BEGINS. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP OVER THE MTNS TONIGHT BUT
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP AT KAVL...AND HAVE ONLY SCT CLOUDS
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE FRONT
RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY TRAVERSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A THIN BAND OF L0W AND MID CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT.
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. WEAK POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND
74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT
1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS 08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING ON WITH CLEAR SKIES
RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LOWER THETA AIRMASS
POISED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
LEAVING A 115 MILE CLOUD BAND OF THICK LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST BY MID MORNING TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER. HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REFLECT
ONGOING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. WEAK POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND
74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT
1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS 08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KJYL/KAGS/KVDI/KAMG AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET INTO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL
FILL IN WITHIN THE HOUR. STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. OPTED TO LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM SINCE ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE OF VERY SHORT
DURATION. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING ON WITH
CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
09/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LOWER THETA AIRMASS
POISED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
LEAVING A 115 MILE CLOUD BAND OF THICK LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST BY MID MORNING TAKING WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER. HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REFLECT
ONGOING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. WEAK POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND
74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT
1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS 08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KJYL/KAGS/KVDI/KAMG AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET INTO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL
FILL IN WITHIN THE HOUR. STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. OPTED TO LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM SINCE ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE OF VERY SHORT
DURATION. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING ON WITH
CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LOWER THETA AIRMASS
POISED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
LEAVING A 115 MILE CLOUD BAND OF THICK LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST BY MID MORNING TAKING WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER. HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REFLECT
ONGOING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. WEAK POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND
74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT
1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS 08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KJYL/KAGS/KVDI/KAMG AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET INTO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL
FILL IN WITHIN THE HOUR. STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. OPTED TO LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM SINCE ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE OF VERY SHORT
DURATION. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING ON WITH
CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KGSP 081134
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE UPPER PLAINS STATES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MID WEEK...AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES EAST FROM TEXAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
TAKING THE SCT SHOWERS WITH THEM. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE NC MTNS THOUGH. COOLER AIR MASS
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEEP MIXING...WESTERLY FLOW AND
DRIER ATMOS WILL MAKE DEW POINTS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH
THESE CONDITIONS...RH REMAINS ABOVE RED FLAG BUT DOES GET CLOSE OVER
NE GA AND WRN UPSTATE. WINDS AND GUSTS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG AND LAKE WIND LEVELS.

UPPER LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING WLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAA BUT FLOW NOT VERY STRONG OR EXACTLY
NORMAL THE THE MTN RIDGES. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY CLOUDS NEAR THE
TN BORDER. LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOL AIR MASS
REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...0Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY CLOSE
WITH THE SFC AND H5 FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...H5
LOWS WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC AND THE PLAINS...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE CWA. I WILL FORECAST CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AND LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...H5 TROF WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID WEST
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SFC WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TX/LA BORDER...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. I WILL ADVERTISE INCREASING POPS ON
TUESDAY...WITH 40 POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER TO 20-25 POPS EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFT WITH INCREASING PW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A MORE COMMON
SOLUTION IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.  IF THIS VERIFIES...THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR A THREE DAY PERIOD.  AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY ADVANCING EAST AND GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTH.  THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SHOULD
CROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS
AND EC.  THE GFS IS CERTAINLY HAS A DEEPER UPPER LOW AND MORE
INSTABILITY.  THE GFS HAS CAPES OF AROUND 500 CROSSING OUR FORECAST
AREA IN MID DAY FRIDAY.  THE EC DOES NOT HAVE THE LEVEL OF UPPER
SUPPORT AND LESS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY BUT DOES INDICATE A QPF
PREDICTION OF AROUND A HALF INCH.  BOTH HAVE ALL THAT MOVING OUT TO
THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND LEFT FOR THE NC
MOUNTAINS.  THE WRAP AROUND IS A BIT STRONGER IN THE GFS.  IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SO ONLY RAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OUT
SOON. LEFT A ONE HOUR MVFR TEMPO AT KCLT JUST IN CASE THE LOWER
CLOUDS MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
AROUND NOON AS GOOD MIXING BEGINS. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP OVER THE MTNS TONIGHT BUT
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP AT KAVL...AND HAVE ONLY SCT CLOUDS
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE FRONT
RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCAE 081124
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT AT 07Z MOVING EAST OF AND AND AHN. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF CAE BEFORE 12Z. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACROSS
THE AREA...LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
COLD ADVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKY. WRF MODEL VAD PROFILE SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
SLIGHTLY DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN STATES SUNDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST
MONDAY. AIRMASS QUITE DRY. DESPITE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS MONDAY
TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS APPEAR TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. POSSIBLE WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE STATES. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THE DRY AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. STRONG MIXING AND MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS SUPPORT WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS AND
SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...JL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081121
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
621 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE WHILE STILL
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. RADAR COMPOSITES
INDICATE FRONTAL BAND SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE
EAST AND ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING DRY AIRMASS OVER EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THEN DROP ALL MENTION OF
RAIN CHANCES FROM THEN ON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO PUSH OFFSHORE A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
BAND PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. WEAK POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND 74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS
08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
TOO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KJYL/KAGS/KVDI/KAMG AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET INTO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL
FILL IN WITHIN THE HOUR. STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. OPTED TO LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM SINCE ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE OF VERY SHORT
DURATION. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING ON WITH
CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KGSP 080807
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE UPPER PLAINS STATES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MID WEEK...AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES EAST FROM TEXAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
TAKING THE SCT SHOWERS WITH THEM. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE NC MTNS THOUGH. COOLER AIR MASS
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEEP MIXING...WESTERLY FLOW AND
DRIER ATMOS WILL MAKE DEW POINTS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH
THESE CONDITIONS...RH REMAINS ABOVE RED FLAG BUT DOES GET CLOSE OVER
NE GA AND WRN UPSTATE. WINDS AND GUSTS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG AND LAKE WIND LEVELS.

UPPER LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING WLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAA BUT FLOW NOT VERY STRONG OR EXACTLY
NORMAL THE THE MTN RIDGES. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY CLOUDS NEAR THE
TN BORDER. LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOL AIR MASS
REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...0Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY CLOSE
WITH THE SFC AND H5 FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...H5
LOWS WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC AND THE PLAINS...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE CWA. I WILL FORECAST CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AND LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...H5 TROF WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID WEST
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SFC WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TX/LA BORDER...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. I WILL ADVERTISE INCREASING POPS ON
TUESDAY...WITH 40 POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER TO 20-25 POPS EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFT WITH INCREASING PW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A MORE COMMON
SOLUTION IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.  IF THIS VERIFIES...THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR A THREE DAY PERIOD.  AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY ADVANCING EAST AND GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTH.  THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SHOULD
CROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS
AND EC.  THE GFS IS CERTAINLY HAS A DEEPER UPPER LOW AND MORE
INSTABILITY.  THE GFS HAS CAPES OF AROUND 500 CROSSING OUR FORECAST
AREA IN MID DAY FRIDAY.  THE EC DOES NOT HAVE THE LEVEL OF UPPER
SUPPORT AND LESS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY BUT DOES INDICATE A QPF
PREDICTION OF AROUND A HALF INCH.  BOTH HAVE ALL THAT MOVING OUT TO
THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND LEFT FOR THE NC
MOUNTAINS.  THE WRAP AROUND IS A BIT STRONGER IN THE GFS.  IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SO ONLY RAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA WILL
MOVE OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW VFR OR EVEN BRIEF MVFR. DRY AIR AND
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVE IN NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS LEADS TO SCT VFR
CLOUDS ALL STIES. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AND
BECOME GUSTY AROUND NOON AS GOOD MIXING BEGINS. THE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP OVER THE MTNS
BUT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP AT KAVL...AND HAVE ONLY SCT
CLOUDS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE FRONT
RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCAE 080802
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
302 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT AT 07Z MOVING EAST OF AND AND AHN. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF CAE BEFORE 12Z. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACROSS
THE AREA...LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
COLD ADVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKY. WRF MODEL VAD PROFILE SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
SLIGHTLY DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN STATES SUNDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST
MONDAY. AIRMASS QUITE DRY. DESPITE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS MONDAY
TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS APPEAR TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. POSSIBLE WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE STATES. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS SHOW
FARTHER DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 12Z. STRONG MIXING
AND MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 080746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
246 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE WHILE STILL
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. RADAR COMPOSITES
INDICATE FRONTAL BAND SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE
EAST AND ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING DRY AIRMASS OVER EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THEN DROP ALL MENTION OF
RAIN CHANCES FROM THEN ON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO PUSH OFFSHORE A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
BAND PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. WEAK POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND 74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS
08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
TOO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO CROSS THE TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LOWER AFTER 10Z...CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS ITS SPREADS EAST
SO DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID
MORNING ON WITH CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/JPC

000
FXUS62 KGSP 080537
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1237 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE APPARENTLY DOING
THE TRICK WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP AS IT HAS BLOSSOMED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
COVERAGE IS ON THE ORDER OF A LIKELY POP SO A SWATH OF THAT WILL BE
INCLUDED ACROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE MTNS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ON THIS EVENING UPDATE. THE RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY COHERENT BACK
EDGE TO THE PRECIP ALREADY MOVING INTO WRN MOUNTAINS...SO THE TIMING
OF THE PRECIP ENDING CAN BE SPED UP A BIT AS WELL...SUCH THAT IT
CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY 6 AM. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS LOOK OK.
DEWPOINT WAS TWEAKED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS.

THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. BY LATE MORNING...WINDS COULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH OVER
THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO FALL QUICKLY DURING THE
DAY. I DON/T HAVE RED FLAG CRITERIA IN ANY OF THE ZONES...BUT
CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD DURING THIS TIME...
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE OP MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY...A BROAD...QUASI-ZONAL WSW FLOW. SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE STREAKING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT FORCING
FOR PCPN NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LLVL WAA AND UPPER
JET DYNAMICS. SENSIBLE WX WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL. EVEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NOW...BOTH THESE SOLUTIONS HANG BACK MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WELL TO OUR WEST...WRINGING OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NW GULF. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE CONUS
DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH FROM TUESDAY...BROAD SW AND QUASI-ZONAL.
WILL HANG ON TO JUST A TOKEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MAXES WITHIN A
CATEGORY OF NORMAL. WILL STICK CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTION FOR THE LATTER
EXTENDED...FEATURING THE TREND TOWARD INCREASED AMPLITUDE AND THE
THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT ON THURSDAY AND
WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...LINGERING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA WILL
MOVE OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW VFR OR EVEN BRIEF MVFR. DRY AIR AND
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVE IN NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS LEADS TO SCT VFR
CLOUDS ALL STIES. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AND
BECOME GUSTY AROUND NOON AS GOOD MIXING BEGINS. THE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP OVER THE MTNS
BUT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP AT KAVL...AND HAVE ONLY SCT
CLOUDS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE FRONT
RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM/RWH

000
FXUS62 KCAE 080526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT A SPLIT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MAY OCCUR AS
THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER
LOW...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA SOON AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AFTER FROPA...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATE. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS SHOW
FARTHER DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 12Z. STRONG MIXING
AND MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...JL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 080516
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1216 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRES. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE
W COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BAND OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND JET DYNAMICS IS PROGRESSIVE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE SE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS
NEARING AN ATLANTA-DOTHAN LINE. CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM FAR SE
ALABAMA TO NORTH GEORGIA HAVE BEEN LOSING INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT SOME SCATTERED MEASURING RAINS CONTINUE TO PRESS
QUICKLY TOWARD CENTRAL GEORGIA AT 02Z. 18Z MODELS MAINTAIN TREND
OF FURTHER DISSIPATION OF THE SHOWER BAND BY DAYBREAK SAT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WANES. PCPN TIMING SEEMS JUST A BIT FASTER
THAN MODELS PORTRAYED EARLIER TODAY...BUT OVERALL TIMING FOR OUR
FORECAST IS DECENT OVERNIGHT. OUR TRENDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND POPS AND
INCREASING CLOUDS ALL ZONES. TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCATIONS HAVE
DROPPED QUICKLY AND WERE NOT FAR FROM FORECAST MINS. WE SUSPECT
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SSW WIND WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
DIPPING MUCH FURTHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN COOLER
SPOTS AT 01Z SUCH AS NORTH CHARLESTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH-BASE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REDUCE THICKNESS VALUES BY ABOUT
14 METERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THEN BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING NW OF THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
POPS UNTIL WED...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO SOON. PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU WHEN A COLD FRONT TO THE W FINALLY PUSHES E AND COMBINES
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO CROSS THE TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LOWER AFTER 10Z...CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS ITS SPREADS EAST
SO DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID
MORNING ON WITH CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SW WARM ADVECTION LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE MARINE
WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WARMEST 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS BUT
A BIT LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST WELL OFF THE
COAST LATE.

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...W WINDS WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SAT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY SAT EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. NO FLAGS
ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SUN WILL SLIDE TO THE N MON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SLOWLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN SEAS...AS A NE FLOW SETS UP. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCA SEAS /6
FT/ OVER THE GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM OUT BY WED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KGSP 080316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1016 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE APPARENTLY DOING
THE TRICK WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP AS IT HAS BLOSSOMED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
COVERAGE IS ON THE ORDER OF A LIKELY POP SO A SWATH OF THAT WILL BE
INCLUDED ACROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE MTNS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ON THIS EVENING UPDATE. THE RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY COHERENT BACK
EDGE TO THE PRECIP ALREADY MOVING INTO WRN MOUNTAINS...SO THE TIMING
OF THE PRECIP ENDING CAN BE SPED UP A BIT AS WELL...SUCH THAT IT
CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY 6 AM. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS LOOK OK.
DEWPOINT WAS TWEAKED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS.

THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. BY LATE MORNING...WINDS COULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH OVER
THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO FALL QUICKLY DURING THE
DAY. I DON/T HAVE RED FLAG CRITERIA IN ANY OF THE ZONES...BUT
CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD DURING THIS TIME...
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE OP MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY...A BROAD...QUASI-ZONAL WSW FLOW. SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE STREAKING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT FORCING
FOR PCPN NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LLVL WAA AND UPPER
JET DYNAMICS. SENSIBLE WX WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL. EVEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NOW...BOTH THESE SOLUTIONS HANG BACK MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WELL TO OUR WEST...WRINGING OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NW GULF. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE CONUS
DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH FROM TUESDAY...BROAD SW AND QUASI-ZONAL.
WILL HANG ON TO JUST A TOKEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MAXES WITHIN A
CATEGORY OF NORMAL. WILL STICK CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTION FOR THE LATTER
EXTENDED...FEATURING THE TREND TOWARD INCREASED AMPLITUDE AND THE
THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT ON THURSDAY AND
WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...LINGERING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE LEADING EDGE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE
WESTERN SITES AND SHOULD REACH KCLT AROUND 03Z. FOR THE MOST
PART...CEILINGS SHOULD STAY VFR IN THE RANGE FROM 3500 TO 6000 FEET.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOTED ACROSS GA NEAR PRECIP.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS OVER ERN TN WILL LIFT NE AND
NOT AFFECT KAVL. A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER GA WILL LIFT NE AND
COULD AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF I-85 DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TAFS LIMIT THIS TO VCSH FOR THE TIME BEING...AND WILL BE
AMENDED IF IT LOOKS LIKE STEADIER PRECIP WOULD BRING VISIBILITY AND
CEILING DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NW LATER TONIGHT AT KAVL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE REST
OF THE SITES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH TOMORROW
AS THERE WILL BE A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AT THE
UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE FRONT
RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM

000
FXUS62 KCHS 080223
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRES. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE
W COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...BAND OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND JET DYNAMICS IS PROGRESSIVE...MOVING
AWAY FROM THE SE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS NEARING AN ATLANTA-DOTHAN LINE. CONVECTIVE RAINS
FROM FAR SE ALABAMA TO NORTH GEORGIA HAVE BEEN LOSING INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT SOME SCATTERED MEASURING RAINS
CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY TOWARD CENTRAL GEORGIA AT 02Z. 18Z
MODELS MAINTAIN TREND OF FURTHER DISSIPATION OF THE SHOWER BAND BY
DAYBREAK SAT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WANES. PCPN TIMING SEEMS
JUST A BIT FASTER THAN MODELS PORTRAYED EARLIER TODAY...BUT
OVERALL TIMING FOR OUR FORECAST IS DECENT OVERNIGHT. OUR TRENDS
LOOK GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND
POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALL ZONES. TEMPERATURES AT SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY AND WERE NOT FAR FROM FORECAST
MINS. WE SUSPECT ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SSW WIND WILL KEEP
READINGS FROM DIPPING MUCH FURTHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
IN COOLER SPOTS AT 01Z SUCH AS NORTH CHARLESTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH-BASE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REDUCE THICKNESS VALUES BY ABOUT
14 METERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THEN BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING NW OF THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
POPS UNTIL WED...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO SOON. PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU WHEN A COLD FRONT TO THE W FINALLY PUSHES E AND COMBINES
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z/09. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WE COULD
SEE MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY 08Z-13Z...BUT CONFIDENCE
ON OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTIONS ATTM. THERE
MAY ALSO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE W
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING OF
CLEARING AND DEEPER MIXING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SW WARM ADVECTION LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE MARINE
WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WARMEST 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS BUT
A BIT LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST WELL OFF THE
COAST LATE.

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...W WINDS WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SAT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY SAT EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. NO FLAGS
ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SUN WILL SLIDE TO THE N MON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SLOWLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN SEAS...AS A NE FLOW SETS UP. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCA SEAS /6
FT/ OVER THE GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM OUT BY WED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 080141
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
841 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT A SPLIT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MAY OCCUR AS
THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER
LOW...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA SOON AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AFTER FROPA...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATE. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER...RANGING FROM 5 TO 8
THOUSAND FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VSBYS 5SM
TO 6 SM AND CEILINGS 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET FROM 06Z-12Z. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. A SOUTHWEST
WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 080108 CCA
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
808 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRES. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE
W COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW MUCH OF
THE VORTICITY ENERGY TO ERODE BEFORE MAKING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SCARCE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST...HOWEVER
COASTAL SECTIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE LATEST PROGS OF A QUICKLY DRYING COLUMN
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE 50S DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH-BASE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REDUCE THICKNESS VALUES BY ABOUT
14 METERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THEN BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING NW OF THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
POPS UNTIL WED...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO SOON. PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU WHEN A COLD FRONT TO THE W FINALLY PUSHES E AND COMBINES
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS AT
KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z/09. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WE COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS BRIEFLY 08Z-13Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SMALL WINDOW
FOR SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE W IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE SAT
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING OF CLEARING AND DEEPER MIXING IS
STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SW WARM ADVECTION LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE MARINE
WINDS TO 15-20 KT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SUN WILL SLIDE TO THE N MON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SLOWLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN SEAS...AS A NE FLOW SETS UP. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCA SEAS /6
FT/ OVER THE GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM OUT BY WED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 072354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND IS NOT LOOKING VERY HEALTHY ATTM. WHILE
A FAIRLY ADVECTIVE H5 SHORT WAVE STILL LIFTS ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT...THE OVERALL FORCING ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS LOOKS WEAKER.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE H2-H4 UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOKS MUCH WEAKER. AS A
RESULT...THE LLVL FLOW IS EVEN MORE VEERED THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH LESS CONVERGENCE AND HENCE WEATHER FRONTOGENESIS. I COULD GO
DOWN THE LIST...BUT YOU GET THE IDEA. ALSO...THE AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION REMAINS DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
THE PCPN CHANCES LOOKED LIKE THEY WOULD BE THE BEST. I/LL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...TAPERING OFF TO LOW CHANCE
OVER PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. EVEN WHERE THE POPS ARE HIGHER...THE WEAK
FORCING AND FAST MOVING FRONT WILL RESULT IN A LOW QPF EVENT.

THE FRONT AND ANY ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FA BY 12 UTC SAT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BY LATE MORNING...WINDS COULD GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 MPH OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO FALL
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. I DON/T HAVE RED FLAG CRITERIA IN ANY OF THE
ZONES...BUT CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE...FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP TO DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD DURING THIS TIME...
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE OP MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY...A BROAD...QUASI-ZONAL WSW FLOW. SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE STREAKING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT FORCING
FOR PCPN NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LLVL WAA AND UPPER
JET DYNAMICS. SENSIBLE WX WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL. EVEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NOW...BOTH THESE SOLUTIONS HANG BACK MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WELL TO OUR WEST...WRINGING OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NW GULF. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE CONUS
DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH FROM TUESDAY...BROAD SW AND QUASI-ZONAL.
WILL HANG ON TO JUST A TOKEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MAXES WITHIN A
CATEGORY OF NORMAL. WILL STICK CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTION FOR THE LATTER
EXTENDED...FEATURING THE TREND TOWARD INCREASED AMPLITUDE AND THE
THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT ON THURSDAY AND
WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...LINGERING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE LEADING EDGE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE
WESTERN SITES AND SHOULD REACH KCLT AROUND 03Z. FOR THE MOST
PART...CEILINGS SHOULD STAY VFR IN THE RANGE FROM 3500 TO 6000 FEET.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOTED ACROSS GA NEAR PRECIP.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS OVER ERN TN WILL LIFT NE AND
NOT AFFECT KAVL. A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER GA WILL LIFT NE AND
COULD AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF I-85 DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TAFS LIMIT THIS TO VCSH FOR THE TIME BEING...AND WILL BE
AMENDED IF IT LOOKS LIKE STEADIER PRECIP WOULD BRING VISIBILITY AND
CEILING DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NW LATER TONIGHT AT KAVL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE REST
OF THE SITES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH TOMORROW
AS THERE WILL BE A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AT THE
UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE FRONT
RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM

000
FXUS62 KCHS 072337
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRES. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE
W COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW MUCH OF
THE VORTICITY ENERGY TO ERODE BEFORE MAKING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SCARCE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST...HOWEVER
COASTAL SECTIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE LATEST PROGS OF A QUICKLY DRYING COLUMN
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE 50S DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH-BASE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REDUCE THICKNESS VALUES BY ABOUT
14 METERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THEN BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING NW OF THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
POPS UNTIL WED...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO SOON. PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU WHEN A COLD FRONT TO THE W FINALLY PUSHES E AND COMBINES
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS AT
KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z/09. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WE COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS BRIEFLY 08Z-13Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SMALL WINDOW
FOR SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE W IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE SAT
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING OF CLEARING AND DEEPER MIXING IS
STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SW WARM ADVECTION LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE MARINE
WINDS TO 15-20 KT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SUN WILL SLIDE TO THE N MON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SLOWLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN SEAS...AS A NE FLOW SETS UP. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCA SEAS /6
FT/ OVER THE GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM OUT BY WED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 072326
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 PM EST FRI NOV  7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPWARD APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH THIS FRONT AND
SREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SPLIT IN THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO
TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AFTER FROPA...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATE. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER...RANGING FROM 5 TO 8
THOUSAND FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VSBYS 5SM
TO 6 SM AND CEILINGS 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET FROM 06Z-12Z.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. A
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10

000
FXUS62 KCHS 072003
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
303 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW MUCH OF
THE VORTICITY ENERGY TO ERODE BEFORE MAKING IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET
DIVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SCARCE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXIST...HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE LATEST PROGS OF A QUICKLY
DRYING COLUMN AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE 50S DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH-BASE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REDUCE THICKNESS VALUES BY ABOUT
14 METERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THEN BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING NW OF THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
POPS UNTIL WED...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO SOON. PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU WHEN A COLD FRONT TO THE W FINALLY PUSHES E AND COMBINES
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KSAV FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SW WARM ADVECTION LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE MARINE
WINDS TO 15-20 KTS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SUN WILL SLIDE TO THE N MON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SLOWLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN SEAS...AS A NE FLOW SETS UP. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCA SEAS /6
FT/ OVER THE GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM OUT BY WED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL/RJB

000
FXUS62 KCAE 071919
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
219 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPWARD APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH THIS FRONT AND
SREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SPLIT IN THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO
TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AFTER FROPA...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATE. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF SHORE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 08Z TO 09Z SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE FORECAST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL AS THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS. THE CHANCE OF FOG IS ALSO LIMITED
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING LIMITED AND A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 5
KNOTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY SO NO MENTION OF FOG WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.


NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 071912
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND IS NOT LOOKING VERY HEALTHY ATTM. WHILE
A FAIRLY ADVECTIVE H5 SHORT WAVE STILL LIFTS ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT...THE OVERALL FORCING ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS LOOKS WEAKER.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE H2-H4 UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOKS MUCH WEAKER. AS A
RESULT...THE LLVL FLOW IS EVEN MORE VEERED THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH LESS CONVERGENCE AND HENCE WEATHER FRONTOGENESIS. I COULD GO
DOWN THE LIST...BUT YOU GET THE IDEA. ALSO...THE AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION REMAINS DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
THE PCPN CHANCES LOOKED LIKE THEY WOULD BE THE BEST. I/LL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...TAPERING OFF TO LOW CHANCE
OVER PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. EVEN WHERE THE POPS ARE HIGHER...THE WEAK
FORCING AND FAST MOVING FRONT WILL RESULT IN A LOW QPF EVENT.

THE FRONT AND ANY ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FA BY 12 UTC SAT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BY LATE MORNING...WINDS COULD GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 MPH OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO FALL
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. I DON/T HAVE RED FLAG CRITERIA IN ANY OF THE
ZONES...BUT CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE...FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP TO DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD DURING THIS TIME...
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE OP MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY...A BROAD...QUASI-ZONAL WSW FLOW. SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE STREAKING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT FORCING
FOR PCPN NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LLVL WAA AND UPPER
JET DYNAMICS. SENSIBLE WX WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL. EVEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NOW...BOTH THESE SOLUTIONS HANG BACK MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WELL TO OUR WEST...WRINGING OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NW GULF. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE CONUS
DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH FROM TUESDAY...BROAD SW AND QUASI-ZONAL.
WILL HANG ON TO JUST A TOKEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MAXES WITHIN A
CATEGORY OF NORMAL. WILL STICK CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTION FOR THE LATTER
EXTENDED...FEATURING THE TREND TOWARD INCREASED AMPLITUDE AND THE
THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT ON THURSDAY AND
WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...LINGERING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. UPSTREAM CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE VFR RANGE OVER NRN
GA AND THE MVFR RANGE OVER NRN AL. MOS GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVELOP
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. I/VE FOLLOWED THAT TREND IN THE TAFS...THOUGH I DID BRING
IN A TEMPO GROUP AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KAVL FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KAND.
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NW LATER TONIGHT AT KAVL AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE REST OF THE SITES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH TOMORROW AS THERE WILL BE A STRONG LEE SIDE
TROUGH EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
BY LATE MORNING AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE FRONT
RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MCAVOY

000
FXUS62 KCAE 071803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
103 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN TODAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED/NARROW BAND WITH THIS FRONT
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS/SREF ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS/GA
CSRA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIMITED...POSSIBLE GULF COAST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY LIMIT RAIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LOOKS GOOD. WILL KEEP LOW QPF VALUES AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO REMOVED
POPS AFTER 12Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE HIGHER TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...OTHERWISE TEMP GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS
SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE FIRST SYSTEM A BIT AND BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS...
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF SHORE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 08Z TO 09Z SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE FORECAST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL AS THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS. THE CHANCE OF FOG IS ALSO LIMITED
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING LIMITED AND A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 5
KNOTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY SO NO MENTION OF FOG WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.


NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...12

000
FXUS62 KGSP 071756
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BAND OVER MIDDLE AND ERN TN HAS MADE VERY LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. UNTIL A STRONGER UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER
TODAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. THEREFORE I/VE CUT BACK
POPS AND CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

NC LAND MANAGEMENT FOLKS OBSERVED THAT RAWS DEWPOINTS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN PREDICTED. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL 2 OR 3 PM AT WHICH TIME HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL FINALLY MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AREA AFFECTED IS RATHER
SMALL...THOUGH I WILL TRY TO REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS AND
I/LL UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. I THINK AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BALSAMS WILL SEE DEWPOINTS INCREASE MUCH MORE
QUICKLY...AT LEAST BASED ON THE TRENDS I/M SEEING IN THE UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS.

THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE
REMAINS THIN AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. FORCING WEAKENS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD AS WELL. WILL SPREAD CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...SO NO THUNDER MENTION.
LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...0Z NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 18-21Z SATURDAY. GRADUAL CAA
WILL LIKELY LOWER H85 TEMPS FROM 6-7C AT 12Z TO 4-5C AT 21Z. USING A
BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SAT HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND
NORMAL OR 10-13 DEGREES LOWER THAT FRIDAY/S VALUES. IN
ADDITION...AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL PEAK AROUND
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING CAA SHOULD RESULT IN H85 TEMPS FROM 0 TO -4C
ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z. MOST HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE U30S TO THE L40S EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG INSOLATION AND WEAK WAA WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURE TO STEADILY WARM DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
THE CWA BY SUNRISE. CALM WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER...AND DRY
AIR WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...A SHARP H5 TROF WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID WEST. AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE LOW
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS. BASED ON
THE 0Z GFS...TUESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SW ACROSS THE
CWA...ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY YIELD SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BUILDING FROM THE ATLANTIC. SCT
SHRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING SKY COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
NORMAL. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY. I WILL KEEP CHC POPS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. UPSTREAM CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE VFR RANGE OVER NRN
GA AND THE MVFR RANGE OVER NRN AL. MOS GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVELOP
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. I/VE FOLLOWED THAT TREND IN THE TAFS...THOUGH I DID BRING
IN A TEMPO GROUP AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KAVL FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KAND.
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NW LATER TONIGHT AT KAVL AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE REST OF THE SITES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH TOMORROW AS THERE WILL BE A STRONG LEE SIDE
TROUGH EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
BY LATE MORNING AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE FRONT
RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY

000
FXUS62 KCHS 071749
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE TODAY WHILE A
WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ALOFT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
PRODUCE A SUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHILE UNSEASONABLY HIGH
THICKNESSES SHOULD YIELD A WARM DAY. THICKNESSES OFF THE MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ON
TARGET TO MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ESTABLISHED PRE-
FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET. WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGE COUPLED WITH MEAGER
UPPER SUPPORT AND A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HUGGING THE GULF
COAST WILL YIELD FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. IN FACT NONE OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST JUST YET BUT IT CERTAINLY SEEMS TO
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT KEEP THE COASTAL ZONES DRY FOR
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY IMPRESSIVE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADS TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ONE THAT WILL NOW RUN
DRY. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS BUT STILL DIFFER IN SOME
SMALLER SCALE AND TIMING DETAILS BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NARROW THINGS
DOWN A BIT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUE. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...ITS NARROW MOISTURE SWATH BECOMES FURTHER DRIED UP AND
ITS PARENT SFC LOW PRES SYS AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL LOW BECOME WELL
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST THUS LEAVING THE FRONT WITH LITTLE PUNCH
TO DEVELOP ANY PRECIP. WITH ALL SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING A DRY
FCST FOR SAT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AND RUN WITH A
SILENT 10 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WITH THE FRONT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
SAT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SRN ROCKIES MON WILL SHIFT ENE THROUGH THE
MID MISS VALLEY TUE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BY WED NIGHT...A SEPARATE LOW PRES
CENTER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND
THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU ACRS
THE SE STATES. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPS...IT WILL
BE USHERED E VIA A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SE STATES BY BRINGING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...HAVE HELD
POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THAT TIME.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KSAV FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LOWER. WINDS COULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BEST SURGING LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE WINDS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT.
EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE N THROUGH TUE. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MISS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT E AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES BUT WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT...HAVE KEPT CONDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KGSP 071536
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BAND OVER MIDDLE AND ERN TN HAS MADE VERY LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. UNTIL A STRONGER UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER
TODAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. THEREFORE I/VE CUT BACK
POPS AND CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

NC LAND MANAGEMENT FOLKS OBSERVED THAT RAWS DEWPOINTS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN PREDICTED. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL 2 OR 3 PM AT WHICH TIME HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL FINALLY MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AREA AFFECTED IS RATHER
SMALL...THOUGH I WILL TRY TO REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS AND
I/LL UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. I THINK AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BALSAMS WILL SEE DEWPOINTS INCREASE MUCH MORE
QUICKLY...AT LEAST BASED ON THE TRENDS I/M SEEING IN THE UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS.

THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE
REMAINS THIN AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. FORCING WEAKENS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD AS WELL. WILL SPREAD CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...SO NO THUNDER MENTION.
LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...0Z NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 18-21Z SATURDAY. GRADUAL CAA
WILL LIKELY LOWER H85 TEMPS FROM 6-7C AT 12Z TO 4-5C AT 21Z. USING A
BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SAT HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND
NORMAL OR 10-13 DEGREES LOWER THAT FRIDAY/S VALUES. IN
ADDITION...AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL PEAK AROUND
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING CAA SHOULD RESULT IN H85 TEMPS FROM 0 TO -4C
ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z. MOST HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE U30S TO THE L40S EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG INSOLATION AND WEAK WAA WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURE TO STEADILY WARM DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
THE CWA BY SUNRISE. CALM WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER...AND DRY
AIR WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...A SHARP H5 TROF WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID WEST. AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE LOW
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS. BASED ON
THE 0Z GFS...TUESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SW ACROSS THE
CWA...ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY YIELD SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BUILDING FROM THE ATLANTIC. SCT
SHRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING SKY COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
NORMAL. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY. I WILL KEEP CHC POPS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. PATCHY SHORT LIVED MVFR FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE
DAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
LOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...VFR STILL EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY KAVL/KHKY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VFR WITH VCSH
FOR NOW AS TIMING STILL SUSPECT. MOISTURE CLEARS OUT WITH LOW CLOUDS
DISSIPATING NEAR DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT KAVL AND KHKY LATE TONIGHT AFTER FROPA.

OUTLOOK...NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE COULD REACH KAVL OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCHS 071533
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1033 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE TODAY WHILE A
WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ALOFT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
PRODUCE A SUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHILE UNSEASONABLY HIGH
THICKNESSES SHOULD YIELD A WARM DAY. THICKNESSES OFF THE MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ON
TARGET TO MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ESTABLISHED PRE-
FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET. WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGE COUPLED WITH MEAGER
UPPER SUPPORT AND A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HUGGING THE GULF
COAST WILL YIELD FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. IN FACT NONE OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST JUST YET BUT IT CERTAINLY SEEMS TO
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT KEEP THE COASTAL ZONES DRY FOR
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY IMPRESSIVE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADS TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ONE THAT WILL NOW RUN
DRY. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS BUT STILL DIFFER IN SOME
SMALLER SCALE AND TIMING DETAILS BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NARROW THINGS
DOWN A BIT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUE. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...ITS NARROW MOISTURE SWATH BECOMES FURTHER DRIED UP AND
ITS PARENT SFC LOW PRES SYS AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL LOW BECOME WELL
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST THUS LEAVING THE FRONT WITH LITTLE PUNCH
TO DEVELOP ANY PRECIP. WITH ALL SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING A DRY
FCST FOR SAT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AND RUN WITH A
SILENT 10 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WITH THE FRONT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
SAT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SRN ROCKIES MON WILL SHIFT ENE THROUGH THE
MID MISS VALLEY TUE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BY WED NIGHT...A SEPARATE LOW PRES
CENTER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND
THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU ACRS
THE SE STATES. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPS...IT WILL
BE USHERED E VIA A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SE STATES BY BRINGING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...HAVE HELD
POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THAT TIME.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KSAV FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEING TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LOWER. WINDS COULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BEST SURGING LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE WINDS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT.
EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE N THROUGH TUE. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MISS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT E AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES BUT WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT...HAVE KEPT CONDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KGSP 071136
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS DEEP TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE WRN SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING BETTER CHANCES
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY NORTH INTO THE
NC MTNS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. SHEAR VALUES AS HIGH AS 60
KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THIS AREA. CHANCE IS LOW...BUT A STORM OR TWO WITH
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING WITH
LITTLE FORCING EAST OF THE MTNS. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP EAST OF THE
MTNS...XCPT FOR NE GA AND NWRN UPSTATE. THICKNESS AND H85 VALUES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER WEST BUT SIMILAR EAST.

THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE
REMAINS THIN AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. FORCING WEAKENS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD AS WELL. WILL SPREAD CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...SO NO THUNDER MENTION.
LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...0Z NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 18-21Z SATURDAY. GRADUAL CAA
WILL LIKELY LOWER H85 TEMPS FROM 6-7C AT 12Z TO 4-5C AT 21Z. USING A
BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SAT HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND
NORMAL OR 10-13 DEGREES LOWER THAT FRIDAY/S VALUES. IN
ADDITION...AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL PEAK AROUND
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING CAA SHOULD RESULT IN H85 TEMPS FROM 0 TO -4C
ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z. MOST HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE U30S TO THE L40S EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG INSOLATION AND WEAK WAA WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURE TO STEADILY WARM DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
THE CWA BY SUNRISE. CALM WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER...AND DRY
AIR WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...A SHARP H5 TROF WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID WEST. AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE LOW
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS. BASED ON
THE 0Z GFS...TUESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SW ACROSS THE
CWA...ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY YIELD SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BUILDING FROM THE ATLANTIC. SCT
SHRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING SKY COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
NORMAL. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY. I WILL KEEP CHC POPS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. PATCHY SHORT LIVED MVFR FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE
DAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
LOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...VFR STILL EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY KAVL/KHKY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VFR WITH VCSH
FOR NOW AS TIMING STILL SUSPECT. MOISTURE CLEARS OUT WITH LOW CLOUDS
DISSIPATING NEAR DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT KAVL AND KHKY LATE TONIGHT AFTER FROPA.

OUTLOOK...NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE COULD REACH KAVL OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCAE 071129
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN TODAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED/NARROW BAND WITH THIS FRONT
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS/SREF ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS/GA
CSRA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIMITED...POSSIBLE GULF COAST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY LIMIT RAIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LOOKS GOOD. WILL KEEP LOW QPF VALUES AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO REMOVED
POPS AFTER 12Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE HIGHER TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...OTHERWISE TEMP GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS
SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE FIRST SYSTEM A BIT AND BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS...
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND HAS HELPED CAUSE AREAS
OF IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NEAR THE RIVERS. HEATING AND
MIXING SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MAV AND MET MOS AND CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY.
CONTINUED MIXING BECAUSE OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG. THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. USED THE MAV AND MET MOS AND FORECASTED
JUST AN VFR CEILING BEGINNING AROUND 06Z.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...JL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 071113
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
613 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING PER RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES-12 FOG
PRODUCTS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY/SHALLOW
GROUND FOG NEAR RIVERS...SWAMPS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE ITS OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARM AND DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE
VARIOUS MOS PACKAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WARM BIAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND PREFER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER DERIVED TEMPERATURES
FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND FULL SUN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES. WILL
FORECAST HIGHS 75 TO 78 WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S AND WEAK RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE A COOLING INFLUENCE. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SUNNY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A SIMILAR DEWPOINT REGIME IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ON
TARGET TO MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ESTABLISHED PRE-
FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET. WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGE COUPLED WITH MEAGER
UPPER SUPPORT AND A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HUGGING THE GULF
COAST WILL YIELD FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. IN FACT NONE OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST JUST YET BUT IT CERTAINLY SEEMS TO
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT KEEP THE COASTAL ZONES DRY FOR
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY IMPRESSIVE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADS TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ONE THAT WILL NOW RUN
DRY. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS BUT STILL DIFFER IN SOME
SMALLER SCALE AND TIMING DETAILS BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NARROW THINGS
DOWN A BIT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUE. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...ITS NARROW MOISTURE SWATH BECOMES FURTHER DRIED UP AND
ITS PARENT SFC LOW PRES SYS AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL LOW BECOME WELL
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST THUS LEAVING THE FRONT WITH LITTLE PUNCH
TO DEVELOP ANY PRECIP. WITH ALL SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING A DRY
FCST FOR SAT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AND RUN WITH A
SILENT 10 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WITH THE FRONT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
SAT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SRN ROCKIES MON WILL SHIFT ENE THROUGH THE
MID MISS VALLEY TUE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BY WED NIGHT...A SEPARATE LOW PRES
CENTER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND
THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU ACRS
THE SE STATES. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPS...IT WILL
BE USHERED E VIA A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SE STATES BY BRINGING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...HAVE HELD
POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THAT TIME.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KSAV RECENTLY REPORTED SHALLOW GROUND FOG SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z AS THIS
FOG LAYER LIFTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KSAV
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEING TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE MVFR
CEILINGS AFTER 09Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LOWER. WINDS COULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BEST SURGING LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE WINDS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT.
EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE N THROUGH TUE. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MISS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT E AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES BUT WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT...HAVE KEPT CONDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KGSP 070814
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS DEEP TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE WRN SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING BETTER CHANCES
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY NORTH INTO THE
NC MTNS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. SHEAR VALUES AS HIGH AS 60
KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THIS AREA. CHANCE IS LOW...BUT A STORM OR TWO WITH
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING WITH
LITTLE FORCING EAST OF THE MTNS. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP EAST OF THE
MTNS...XCPT FOR NE GA AND NWRN UPSTATE. THICKNESS AND H85 VALUES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER WEST BUT SIMILAR EAST.

THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE
REMAINS THIN AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. FORCING WEAKENS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD AS WELL. WILL SPREAD CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...SO NO THUNDER MENTION.
LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...0Z NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 18-21Z SATURDAY. GRADUAL CAA
WILL LIKELY LOWER H85 TEMPS FROM 6-7C AT 12Z TO 4-5C AT 21Z. USING A
BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SAT HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND
NORMAL OR 10-13 DEGREES LOWER THAT FRIDAY/S VALUES. IN
ADDITION...AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL PEAK AROUND
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING CAA SHOULD RESULT IN H85 TEMPS FROM 0 TO -4C
ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z. MOST HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE U30S TO THE L40S EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG INSOLATION AND WEAK WAA WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURE TO STEADILY WARM DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
THE CWA BY SUNRISE. CALM WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER...AND DRY
AIR WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...A SHARP H5 TROF WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID WEST. AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE LOW
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS. BASED ON
THE 0Z GFS...TUESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SW ACROSS THE
CWA...ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY YIELD SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BUILDING FROM THE ATLANTIC. SCT
SHRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING SKY COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
NORMAL. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY. I WILL KEEP CHC POPS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. A FEW AREAS OF MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...
DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...LIKELY LIMITING
THE FOG POTENTIAL DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HIGH
MOVES BY...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF
THE SW BY LATE MORNING. AT THIS POINT...ON FRIDAY IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNDOWN. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. HAVE VICINITY SHOWER
LIMITED TO KAVL/KHKY WHERE CHC IS HIGHEST.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE PASSING FRONT LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE COULD
REACH KAVL OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH/PM

000
FXUS62 KCHS 070748
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
248 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING PER RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES-12 FOG
PRODUCTS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY/SHALLOW
GROUND FOG NEAR RIVERS...SWAMPS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE ITS OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARM AND DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE
VARIOUS MOS PACKAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WARM BIAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND PREFER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER DERIVED TEMPERATURES
FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND FULL SUN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES. WILL
FORECAST HIGHS 75 TO 78 WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S AND WEAK RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE A COOLING INFLUENCE. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SUNNY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A SIMILAR DEWPOINT REGIME IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ON
TARGET TO MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ESTABLISHED PRE-
FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET. WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGE COUPLED WITH MEAGER
UPPER SUPPORT AND A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HUGGING THE GULF
COAST WILL YIELD FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. IN FACT NONE OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST JUST YET BUT IT CERTAINLY SEEMS TO
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT KEEP THE COASTAL ZONES DRY FOR
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY IMPRESSIVE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADS TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ONE THAT WILL NOW RUN
DRY. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS BUT STILL DIFFER IN SOME
SMALLER SCALE AND TIMING DETAILS BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NARROW THINGS
DOWN A BIT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUE. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...ITS NARROW MOISTURE SWATH BECOMES FURTHER DRIED UP AND
ITS PARENT SFC LOW PRES SYS AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL LOW BECOME WELL
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST THUS LEAVING THE FRONT WITH LITTLE PUNCH
TO DEVELOP ANY PRECIP. WITH ALL SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING A DRY
FCST FOR SAT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AND RUN WITH A
SILENT 10 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WITH THE FRONT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
SAT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SRN ROCKIES MON WILL SHIFT ENE THROUGH THE
MID MISS VALLEY TUE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BY WED NIGHT...A SEPARATE LOW PRES
CENTER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND
THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU ACRS
THE SE STATES. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPS...IT WILL
BE USHERED E VIA A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SE STATES BY BRINGING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...HAVE HELD
POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THAT TIME.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT CALL ON THE FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GROUND FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT THE SHALLOW AND
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE VARIOUS FOG LAYERS SUGGESTS TAKING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. WILL KEEP OUR PREVIOUS IDEA OF A BRIEF STINT OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KCHS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT SHOW A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR AT KSAV WITH ONLY A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR BETWEEN 11-12Z. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL AS THE FOG LAYERS BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THE DURATIONS APPEAR TO SHORT TO JUSTIFY
A MENTION ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AS THE FOG
BURNS OFF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LOWER. WINDS COULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BEST SURGING LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE WINDS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT.
EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE N THROUGH TUE. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MISS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT E AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES BUT WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT...HAVE KEPT CONDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/JPC

000
FXUS62 KCAE 070743
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
243 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN TODAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED/NARROW BAND WITH THIS FRONT
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS/SREF ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS/GA
CSRA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIMITED...POSSIBLE GULF COAST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY LIMIT RAIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LOOKS GOOD. WILL KEEP LOW QPF VALUES AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO REMOVED
POPS AFTER 12Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE HIGHER TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...OTHERWISE TEMP GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS
SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE FIRST SYSTEM A BIT AND BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS...
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT
AREAS OF IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NEAR THE RIVERS. USED
THE MAV LAMP GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MAINLY IFR AT AGS AND OGB...AND
MVFR ELSEWHERE EARLY. HEATING AND MIXING SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAV AND
MET MOS AND CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 070535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1235 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS AND WITH INTERMEDIATE GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST LOW. NO CHANGES.

A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WI BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK. LAYER RH/S ALSO DRY OUT NOTABLY UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO GET PCPN INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING. THEREFORE I/VE CUT POPS BACK
A BIT DURING THE DAY...THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR AN INSTABILITY DON/T LOOK
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA FRIDAY EVE/OVERNIGHT. THEY ALSO AGREE
GENERALLY ON POP...WITH A HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ALONG FNT. MODELS
SHOW 300 MB JET STRENGTHENS PARALLEL TO THE FNT ACRS THE SRN
STATES...WHILE LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS CONFINED TO A NARROW RGN
ALONG FNTL BNDRY). THIS SET UP MAY PRODUCE ENUF LIFT AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE GULF STATES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
MODEL POPS BEING TOO HIGH ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. SINCE GULF
CONVECTION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...I UNDERCUT MODEL POP
CONSENSUS BY 10 PCT ACRS ENTIRE CWFA WITH FROPA (KEEPING MAINLY
HIGH-END CHC). BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW LTL TO NO INSTBY ALONG FNT
AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS...SO I LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FCST (EVEN THO SPC
SHOWS GENERAL THUNDER DAY 2).

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES S AND E OF THE
FA...WITH DECENT CAA BEHIND IT. UPR LVL GREAT LAKES LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
N/NEWD...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER STRONG WLY FLOW. LLVL WNDS WILL HAVE
A SLGT SLY COMPONENT THRU THE DAY SATURDAY...SO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL BE WEAK...AND WARMING WILL LIKELY NOT OFFSET CAA. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A CAA REGIME W/ WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA THRU SUNDAY
NGT...KEEPING TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL...AND DRY WX
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...STILL EXPECTING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO BE AFFECTING/TRACKING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN STREAMING DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT GULF RETURN
AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE EXPECTED TO BE BLOSSOMING NORTHWARD UP THRU
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR THE CWFA...SENSIBLE WX ON MONDAY STILL
LOOKING LIKE JUST A VARIABLE INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE ACRS THE MID-SOUTH ON
TUESDAY AS DEEPER RH OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAMMING SFC HI PRESSURE DEVELOPING SWD INTO THE
CWFA...SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIMIT OUR TEMPERATURE CLIMB TO THE 50S. WILL
BASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FCST ON HPC GUIDANCE...
CONTINUING TO TRACK PRIMARY SFC LOW NE THEN N...REMAINING WEST
OF THE MTNS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD....EFFECTIVELY LINGERING
THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. A FEW AREAS OF MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...
DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...LIKELY LIMITING
THE FOG POTENTIAL DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HIGH
MOVES BY...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF
THE SW BY LATE MORNING. AT THIS POINT...ON FRIDAY IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNDOWN. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. HAVE VICINITY SHOWER
LIMITED TO KAVL/KHKY WHERE CHC IS HIGHEST.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE PASSING FRONT LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE COULD
REACH KAVL OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM/RWH

000
FXUS62 KCAE 070531
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1231 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER HAS ARRIVED IN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. SHOULD BE ANOTHER EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG INVERSIONS
ALREADY ESTABLISHED...CONFIRMED BY GOES SATELLITE SOUNDINGS. HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL IN THE UPPER 70S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE BEGINNING TO LOOK A
BIT LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHORT RANGE MODELS/SREF ENSEMBLES
SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS/GA CSRA. WILL KEEP TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THE
FRONT. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS
SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE FIRST SYSTEM A BIT AND BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS...
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT
AREAS OF IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NEAR THE RIVERS. USED
THE MAV LAMP GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MAINLY IFR AT AGS AND OGB...AND
MVFR ELSEWHERE EARLY. HEATING AND MIXING SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAV AND
MET MOS AND CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...JL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 070519
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1219 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY
A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT/PERSISTENT W/SW SURFACE WINDS
AND 15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WEAKER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS
MAY ALLOW PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40AS INLAND TO THE UPPER
50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...DESPITE BEING GRADUALLY PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN WHILE PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT REDUCED POP VALUES IN CONSIDERATION OF THE WIDESPREAD
DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT TAP INTO
GULF OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON COUNTY IN SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CANDLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SAT THROUGH MON. AS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA WILL REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE
AREA OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR W WILL MOVE INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NE STATES.
THIS SETUP WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT OUT OF SRN SC/SE
GA AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS TUE THROUGH
FRI.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT CALL ON THE FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GROUND FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT THE SHALLOW AND
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE VARIOUS FOG LAYERS SUGGESTS TAKING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. WILL KEEP OUR PREVIOUS IDEA OF A BRIEF STINT OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KCHS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT SHOW A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR AT KSAV WITH ONLY A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR BETWEEN 11-12Z. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL AS THE FOG LAYERS BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THE DURATIONS APPEAR TO SHORT TO JUSTIFY
A MENTION ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AS THE FOG
BURNS OFF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INLAND SOUTHERN
GA...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND AS HIGH AS 4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL INCLUDE A 2 TO 3
FT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL THUS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. SINCE LATEST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BE WEAKENING DURING ITS APPROACH...THE SUBSEQUENT SURGE IN WIND
SPEEDS HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN A BIT. STILL DO NOT EXPECT WINDS OR
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS BEGINNING TUE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KGSP 070228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
928 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS AND WITH INTERMEDIATE GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST LOW. NO CHANGES.

A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WI BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK. LAYER RH/S ALSO DRY OUT NOTABLY UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO GET PCPN INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING. THEREFORE I/VE CUT POPS BACK
A BIT DURING THE DAY...THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR AN INSTABILITY DON/T LOOK
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA FRIDAY EVE/OVERNIGHT. THEY ALSO AGREE
GENERALLY ON POP...WITH A HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ALONG FNT. MODELS
SHOW 300 MB JET STRENGTHENS PARALLEL TO THE FNT ACRS THE SRN
STATES...WHILE LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS CONFINED TO A NARROW RGN
ALONG FNTL BNDRY). THIS SET UP MAY PRODUCE ENUF LIFT AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE GULF STATES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
MODEL POPS BEING TOO HIGH ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. SINCE GULF
CONVECTION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...I UNDERCUT MODEL POP
CONSENSUS BY 10 PCT ACRS ENTIRE CWFA WITH FROPA (KEEPING MAINLY
HIGH-END CHC). BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW LTL TO NO INSTBY ALONG FNT
AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS...SO I LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FCST (EVEN THO SPC
SHOWS GENERAL THUNDER DAY 2).

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES S AND E OF THE
FA...WITH DECENT CAA BEHIND IT. UPR LVL GREAT LAKES LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
N/NEWD...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER STRONG WLY FLOW. LLVL WNDS WILL HAVE
A SLGT SLY COMPONENT THRU THE DAY SATURDAY...SO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL BE WEAK...AND WARMING WILL LIKELY NOT OFFSET CAA. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A CAA REGIME W/ WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA THRU SUNDAY
NGT...KEEPING TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL...AND DRY WX
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...STILL EXPECTING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO BE AFFECTING/TRACKING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN STREAMING DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT GULF RETURN
AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE EXPECTED TO BE BLOSSOMING NORTHWARD UP THRU
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR THE CWFA...SENSIBLE WX ON MONDAY STILL
LOOKING LIKE JUST A VARIABLE INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE ACRS THE MID-SOUTH ON
TUESDAY AS DEEPER RH OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAMMING SFC HI PRESSURE DEVELOPING SWD INTO THE
CWFA...SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIMIT OUR TEMPERATURE CLIMB TO THE 50S. WILL
BASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FCST ON HPC GUIDANCE...
CONTINUING TO TRACK PRIMARY SFC LOW NE THEN N...REMAINING WEST
OF THE MTNS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD....EFFECTIVELY LINGERING
THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. A FEW AREAS OF MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...LIKELY
LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
THE HIGH MOVES BY...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS SHOULD PICK
UP OUT OF THE SW LATE TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS POINT...ON FRIDAY IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD
ENCROACH UPON KAVL SO A VICINITY SHOWER WAS INCLUDED AFTER 21Z.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PASSING FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE COULD REACH KAVL OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM

000
FXUS62 KCHS 070217
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
917 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY
A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT/PERSISTENT W/SW SURFACE WINDS
AND 15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WEAKER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS
MAY ALLOW PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40AS INLAND TO THE UPPER
50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...DESPITE BEING GRADUALLY PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN WHILE PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT REDUCED POP VALUES IN CONSIDERATION OF THE WIDESPREAD
DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT TAP INTO
GULF OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON COUNTY IN SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CANDLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SAT THROUGH MON. AS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA WILL REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE
AREA OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR W WILL MOVE INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NE STATES.
THIS SETUP WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT OUT OF SRN SC/SE
GA AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS TUE THROUGH
FRI.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...COUPLED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. HOWEVER...A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PERSISTENT SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY
LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT AT KCHS...THUS LIMITED LOWEST
VISIBILITY TO A BRIEF 3SM AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. AT KSAV...CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GA...NEARLY CALM
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY STARTING BY MIDNIGHT GIVING WAY TO
OCCASIONAL SUB-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INLAND SOUTHERN
GA...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND AS HIGH AS 4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL INCLUDE A 2 TO 3
FT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL THUS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. SINCE LATEST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BE WEAKENING DURING ITS APPROACH...THE SUBSEQUENT SURGE IN WIND
SPEEDS HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN A BIT. STILL DO NOT EXPECT WINDS OR
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS BEGINNING TUE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 070204 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
904 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED IN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. SHOULD BE ANOTHER EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG INVERSIONS
ALREADY ESTABLISHED...CONFIRMED BY GOES SATELLITE SOUNDINGS. HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WITH NEARLY FULL SUN ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL IN THE UPPER 70S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE BEGINNING TO LOOK A
BIT LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHORT RANGE MODELS/SREF ENSEMBLES
SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS/GA CSRA. WILL KEEP TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THE
FRONT. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS
SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE FIRST SYSTEM A BIT AND BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS...
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS
SUNRISE... THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
RIVER BOTTOMS AT KAGS AND KOGB FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP.
CONTINUED WITH THE USE OF THE MAV AND MET MOS AND FORECASTED MVFR
FOG AT THESE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING 5 TO 10 KNOTS BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC

000
FXUS62 KGSP 062347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT.

A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WI BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK. LAYER RH/S ALSO DRY OUT NOTABLY UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO GET PCPN INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING. THEREFORE I/VE CUT POPS BACK
A BIT DURING THE DAY...THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR AN INSTABILITY DON/T LOOK
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA FRIDAY EVE/OVERNIGHT. THEY ALSO AGREE
GENERALLY ON POP...WITH A HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ALONG FNT. MODELS
SHOW 300 MB JET STRENGTHENS PARALLEL TO THE FNT ACRS THE SRN
STATES...WHILE LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS CONFINED TO A NARROW RGN
ALONG FNTL BNDRY). THIS SET UP MAY PRODUCE ENUF LIFT AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE GULF STATES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
MODEL POPS BEING TOO HIGH ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. SINCE GULF
CONVECTION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...I UNDERCUT MODEL POP
CONSENSUS BY 10 PCT ACRS ENTIRE CWFA WITH FROPA (KEEPING MAINLY
HIGH-END CHC). BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW LTL TO NO INSTBY ALONG FNT
AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS...SO I LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FCST (EVEN THO SPC
SHOWS GENERAL THUNDER DAY 2).

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES S AND E OF THE
FA...WITH DECENT CAA BEHIND IT. UPR LVL GREAT LAKES LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
N/NEWD...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER STRONG WLY FLOW. LLVL WNDS WILL HAVE
A SLGT SLY COMPONENT THRU THE DAY SATURDAY...SO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL BE WEAK...AND WARMING WILL LIKELY NOT OFFSET CAA. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A CAA REGIME W/ WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA THRU SUNDAY
NGT...KEEPING TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL...AND DRY WX
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...STILL EXPECTING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO BE AFFECTING/TRACKING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN STREAMING DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT GULF RETURN
AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE EXPECTED TO BE BLOSSOMING NORTHWARD UP THRU
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR THE CWFA...SENSIBLE WX ON MONDAY STILL
LOOKING LIKE JUST A VARIABLE INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE ACRS THE MID-SOUTH ON
TUESDAY AS DEEPER RH OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAMMING SFC HI PRESSURE DEVELOPING SWD INTO THE
CWFA...SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIMIT OUR TEMPERATURE CLIMB TO THE 50S. WILL
BASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FCST ON HPC GUIDANCE...
CONTINUING TO TRACK PRIMARY SFC LOW NE THEN N...REMAINING WEST
OF THE MTNS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD....EFFECTIVELY LINGERING
THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. A FEW AREAS OF MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...LIKELY
LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
THE HIGH MOVES BY...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS SHOULD PICK
UP OUT OF THE SW LATE TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS POINT...ON FRIDAY IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD
ENCROACH UPON KAVL SO A VICINITY SHOWER WAS INCLUDED AFTER 21Z.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PASSING FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE COULD REACH KAVL OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM

000
FXUS62 KCAE 062334
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 PM EST THU NOV  6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS LIMITED TONIGHT SO DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WILL NOT MENTION EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE ZONES
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT VERY PATCHY FOG IN SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL IN THE UPPER 70S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE BEGINNING TO LOOK A
BIT LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHORT RANGE MODELS/SREF ENSEMBLES
SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS/GA CSRA. WILL KEEP TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THE
FRONT. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS
SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE FIRST SYSTEM A BIT AND BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS...
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIVER
BOTTOMS AT KAGS AND KOGB FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. CONTINUED
WITH THE USE OF THE MAV AND MET MOS AND FORECASTED MVFR FOG AT THESE
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
5 TO 10 KNOTS BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE
EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10

000
FXUS62 KCHS 062325
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
625 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST COULD INITIATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLED WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S FAR INLAND TO THE MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT DUE TO LESS MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS. SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE NEARLY ZERO CHANCE
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES...WHILE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE. CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG...BUT REDUCED DURATION TO JUST 3 HOURS FROM 09Z
UNTIL 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...DESPITE BEING GRADUALLY PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN WHILE PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT REDUCED POP VALUES IN CONSIDERATION OF THE WIDESPREAD
DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT TAP INTO
GULF OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON COUNTY IN SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CANDLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SAT THROUGH MON. AS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA WILL REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE
AREA OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR W WILL MOVE INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NE STATES.
THIS SETUP WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT OUT OF SRN SC/SE
GA AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS TUE THROUGH
FRI.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...COUPLED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. HOWEVER...A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT AT
KCHS...THUS LIMITED LOWEST VISIBILITY TO BRIEF 3SM AROUND DAYBREAK
THERE. AT KSAV...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN GA...NEARLY CALM WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT
FOG...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY STARTING BY MIDNIGHT
GIVING WAY TO OCCASIONAL SUB-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS
15 KT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED EAST AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
THUS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE LATEST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING DURING ITS APPROACH...THE
SUBSEQUENT SURGE IN WIND SPEEDS HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN A BIT. STILL
DO NOT EXPECT WINDS OR SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS BEGINNING TUE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$