[top]
000
FXUS65 KTFX 090003
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
500 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DIG DEEP INTO SOUTHWEST US.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST...AND WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN
THOSE AREAS FOR TONIGHT. THE TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND THE ZONES
END UP SITTING BETWEEN SPLIT FLOW SUNDAY...AND DYNAMICS OVER THE
AREA WILL BE VERY WEAK THROUGH MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH MONDAY
AND SCATTERED POPS WILL BE ADDED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE
AIRMASS WARMS SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH THEN COOLS AS THE TROF APPROACHES. ZELZER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. AS THESE WINDS
INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA. WINDS DURING THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH...WHILE WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MAY REACH 35 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. WILL THEREFORE ADD A MENTION OF THESE
STRONG WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE NORTHERLY AND DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW. COULSTON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY SO KEPT POPS A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAUCIER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND AFFECT THE HAVRE AND LEWISTOWN AREAS
THROUGH 04Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BRUSDA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 38 52 33 48 / 10 10 30 30
CTB 32 50 29 48 / 10 10 20 20
HLN 33 48 32 45 / 20 20 40 40
BZN 30 53 32 47 / 40 40 50 40
WEY 26 41 27 39 / 50 50 60 40
DLN 31 47 33 43 / 40 40 50 40
HVR 27 47 23 48 / 20 20 20 20
LWT 32 50 29 45 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 082224
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
324 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
ANOTHER FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST DEALING WITH A MESSY NORTHWEST
FLOW THIS EVENING...THEN A TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. END
RESULT WILL BE SNOW OFF AND ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO LARGE
ACCUMULATIONS A MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY.
TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWING A BATCH OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ZONES BEFORE 00Z...AND CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO PIN POINT THE
WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DON`T SEE ANOTHER ONE UPSTREAM AT THIS
TIME..BUT OVERALL UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENTUALLY SETTING UP. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF FOG IN EASTERN ZONES WITH THIS AREA
STILL UNDER SUBSIDENCE BELOW RIDGE TONIGHT.
SUNDAY...CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE LOOKS TO DIVE INTO IDAHO BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT DOES
AND ALSO NOT DRAGGING NEARLY AS MUCH COLD AIR WEST AS PREVIOUS
RUNS AND LIKE MIDNIGHTS TREND/SUGGESTION THAT SUNDAY LOOKS WARMER
WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WARMING TREND.
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POPS WEST TRENDING DOWN IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GFS CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS DOES MOVE A WEAK 700 MB LOW
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BUT FLOW WITH IT IS VERY WEAK. HAVE OVERALL
LOWERED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOT LOWERED
TOO MUCH AS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE TO
THE AREA...BUT LOOKS BEST PERIOD FOR MOISTURE NOW LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY RATHER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. RASCH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY BIG
CHANGES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY MONDAY BECOMES NORTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE FOR DAYTIME/NIGHTTIME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A STRONG COOL FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. GAP FLOW ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THESE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE BUMPED UP READINGS
A FEW DEGREES MOST PERIODS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...CLIMO POPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE EAST. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KMLS TO
KBHK AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AREAS OF IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY FREEZING FOG. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/049 032/045 033/049 033/049 034/054 034/049 030/039
43/O 34/W 42/W 12/W 33/W 22/W 21/B
LVM 035/051 030/045 029/047 032/048 040/054 033/049 030/045
55/R 46/W 32/W 23/W 43/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 028/050 028/047 030/052 029/049 031/053 032/053 028/048
43/O 34/W 31/B 12/W 23/W 22/W 11/B
MLS 021/040 024/038 028/047 028/047 032/053 032/050 028/042
12/S 22/J 21/B 11/B 23/W 11/B 11/B
4BQ 022/039 024/038 025/049 027/043 032/053 031/051 028/048
22/S 33/W 22/W 12/W 23/W 21/B 11/B
BHK 016/033 020/034 022/042 025/042 028/050 028/046 025/043
12/J 22/J 21/B 11/B 23/W 11/B 11/U
SHR 026/048 027/045 027/049 027/049 028/054 030/050 026/047
33/O 56/W 42/W 22/W 23/W 22/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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000
FXUS65 KGGW 082214
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
314 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WARMING IS
BEING LIMITED BY SHALLOWING LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW OF COOL AIR. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN N AB EXTENDING
S AND NOT MOVING MUCH. THIS HAS CREATED A FAIRLY STEEP NE-SW TEMP
GRADIENT OF MORE THAN 20F TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MOST PART THRU MON...BUT TEMP DIFFERENCES LESSENING A LITTLE.
CLEAR SKIES SHOWING THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE
GROUND YET OVER OUR NE...DANIELS AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES...AS WELL
WIBAUX...AND E PARTS OF RICHLAND AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
SATELLITE CHANNELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS JUST
STARTING TO ARRIVE IN OUR W...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WE HAD PATCHY FOG IN OUR W EARLY THIS MORN WHERE SKIES
CLEARED...HOWEVER MET MOS HAS BEEN TOO MOIST LATELY AND WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIND...WILL LEAVE OUT FOG IN
GRIDS...ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES BEING POSSIBLE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH HAVING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
OR/WA COAST STRETCHING AND WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PARTS OF IT MOVING
WELL INLAND TO OUR S ACROSS THE W STATES THE NEXT 2 DAYS...AS IT
TRIES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALOFT. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE PUSHING THRU THE RIDGE AND INTO NE MT FOR THE NEXT 2
DAYS. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE AND ANYWAY IS MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT EITHER...AND MODELS HAVE
ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT QPF. SURFACE TROUGH WON`T BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
MUCH PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN EITHER...EXCEPT IN OUR SW...BUT NO OVERRUNNING
OVER COLDER AIR THERE EITHER. WILL TRIM BACK POPS A LITTLE MORE TO
10 PCT RANGE FOR THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN PETROLEUM COUNTY WHERE
EMPHASIS WILL BE ON LIGHT AMOUNTS AT BEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
IT TO BE AROUND 5C MUCH OF THE TIME AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT FORM TO
BE AS LIGHT RAIN...AND LOW LEVELS LOOKING FOR THE MOST PART TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING...SO WILL DELETE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM GRIDS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING
MIXED LAYER RATHER SHALLOW ONLY UP TO 900 MB...STRONGER WINDS
SURFACE BASES THOUGH AND WILL BE CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 20KT AT NOON. SIMONSEN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF SPLIT FLOW TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT
OF THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL WESTERLY COMPONENTS. CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 0*C TO 4*C CONTRIBUTING
TO NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXACT TIMING OF THIS EVENT HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD INCREASE WITH
THIS IMPULSE. WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH
TO A FASTER NORTHWEST SETTING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SPEEDS
REACHING AS HIGH AS 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY... WINDS SHOULD CALM WITH COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN AND REMAIN... SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. HICKS
&&
.AVIATION...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING... CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL
INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG PRODUCTION...
HOWEVER A SMALL AREA OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
LOW LYING AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF OUR CWA. TOMORROW INTO THE NEXT
EVENING... CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN A PROBLEM IN THE FORECAST WITH
SHIFTING CLOUD LAYERS HOVERING NEXT TO 3000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HICKS
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 082147
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DIG DEEP INTO SOUTHWEST US.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST...AND WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN
THOSE AREAS FOR TONIGHT. THE TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND THE ZONES
END UP SITTING BETWEEN SPLIT FLOW SUNDAY...AND DYNAMICS OVER THE
AREA WILL BE VERY WEAK THROUGH MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH MONDAY
AND SCATTERED POPS WILL BE ADDED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE
AIRMASS WARMS SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH THEN COOLS AS THE TROF APPROACHES. ZELZER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. AS THESE WINDS
INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA. WINDS DURING THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH...WHILE WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MAY REACH 35 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. WILL THEREFORE ADD A MENTION OF THESE
STRONG WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE NORTHERLY AND DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW. COULSTON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY SO KEPT POPS A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAUCIER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST...BRINGING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MONTANA. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOME HIGHER SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WILL BURN
OFF BY 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR IN AND NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA...INCREASING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFT 00Z.
WILLIAMSON DC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 38 52 33 48 / 10 10 30 30
CTB 32 50 29 48 / 10 10 20 20
HLN 33 48 32 45 / 20 20 40 40
BZN 30 53 32 47 / 40 40 50 40
WEY 26 41 27 39 / 50 50 60 40
DLN 31 47 33 43 / 40 40 50 40
HVR 27 47 23 48 / 20 20 20 20
LWT 32 50 29 45 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
[top]
000
FXUS65 KMSO 082121
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
221 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOSTLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST MONTANA TODAY. THIS PRECIPITATION
FOCUS WILL MIGRATE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND
ADJACENT MONTANA ZONES TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
JET DYNAMICS COINCIDE. IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
OCCURRING FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE
SATURATED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN REGION. VALLEY FOG MAY STILL BE CONCERN FOR THE MORNING
HOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...
THE FORECAST MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND DYNAMICS DO NOT
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. THUS...IT MAY VERY WELL BE A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO.
MONDAY...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP INLAND AND REINFORCE
THE AIR MASS MOISTURE AND PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE
FORECAST MIX. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO START THE
WEEK.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONE KEY PLAYER IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ENTERING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AS THE JET PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EXITS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
GENERALLY DAMP AND OVERCAST FORECAST TO PERSIST.
MODELS ARE INVITING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS NOT THE BEST THE FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST MONTANA WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD POPS
AROUND CLIMATOLOGY AND HAVE BEGIN TO TREND LOWER TO POPS AND RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND A LOW STATUS
DECK FIXATED ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. REDUCED VISIBILITY AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION
AT TIMES WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN PARTICULARLY AT KGPI...KMSO AND
KBTM AIRFIELDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY
FOG SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD IMPACT VISIBILITY AT KMSO.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSJ
LONG TERM....ALLEGRETTO
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXUS65 KTFX 081753 AAA
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
UPDATED FOR AVIATION
TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES WHILE TO THE
WEST...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COAST IS BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTH.
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BUT ACTIVITY REMAINS QUITE WEAK. AT LOWER LEVELS...A
SURFACE LEE TROF OVER ALBERTA EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARDS GTF AND SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WERE QUITE A BIT
COOLER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND A BOUNDARY HAS SET UP BETWEEN
THIS AREA AND POINTS FARTHER WEST. SOME POSSIBILITY OF THE EAST
FLOW PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY EAST AND AFFECTING HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST SHOULD COUNTER
THIS. DROPPED SOME POPS ACROSS PLAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING...AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAK. WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. ALSO NUDGED TEMPS UPWARDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BECAUSE OF WARM CURRENT TEMPS AND LOWERED CHANCE
OF PRECIP. ZELZER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST...BRINGING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MONTANA. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOME HIGHER SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WILL BURN
OFF BY 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR IN AND NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA...INCREASING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFT 00Z.
WILLIAMSON DC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 510 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON
AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE POSITION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT WILL MAINLY
IMPACT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE UPPER TROF SHOWS
SIGNS OF SPLITTING AS IT APPROACHES MONTANA SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION
WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS MOST OF THE
TROF ENERGY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL DECLINE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EMANUEL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. AS THESE WINDS
INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA. WINDS DURING THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH...WHILE WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MAY REACH 35 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. WILL THEREFORE ADD A MENTION OF THESE
STRONG WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE NORTHERLY AND DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW. COULSTON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY SO KEPT POPS A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAUCIER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 56 35 48 32 / 20 40 20 30
CTB 53 29 49 31 / 20 40 20 30
HLN 51 31 48 30 / 30 40 40 50
BZN 55 30 54 31 / 40 50 50 50
WEY 38 24 45 29 / 60 60 60 50
DLN 51 28 48 31 / 50 50 50 50
HVR 49 27 43 26 / 10 30 30 20
LWT 52 29 49 30 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 081725
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1025 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008/
UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RAINFALL AND A SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. IN FACT...MANY LOCATIONS ARE
SHOWING DENSE FOG (ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS) PER SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MONTANA...THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW PATTERN AS
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. FORECAST MODELS
REVEAL SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST MONTANA.
AVIATION...DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL LIFT BY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STATUS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE LOW DECKS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
WEAK NEAR SURFACE WINDS AND A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH DURING TODAY...AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MOST
INTENSE PORTION OF THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TRAVEL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MONTANA-IDAHO
BORDER. BY SUNDAY NIGHT... ONLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSENING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WARM NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT THROUGH
MONDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT VALLEY LEVEL. DESPITE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION. ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE IS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL SLIDE OUT OF CANADA USHERING IN A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (ROUGHLY 5000-6000 FEET). THEN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND CAUSING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO NEAR SEASON
NORMALS.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSJ
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXUS65 KGGW 081710
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1010 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY...
A CHANNELED BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY IN NNW FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN
CAUSING EXTENSIVE OVERCAST AROUND 5K FT AGL OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORN...BUT CLOUD TOPS ARE LOW AND NO PRECIP
FROM IT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THIS OVERCAST IS NOW STEADILY
SHRINKING FROM ALL DIRECTIONS....AND MODELS SHOW THIS TO BE GONE
BY AROUND NOON...SO WILL LOWER CLOUD COVER. AT THE SAME
TIME...MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AND SPREADING E ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL CENTERED OFF THE W COAST.
PATCHY FOG FORMED IN AREAS THAT WERE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORN...STILL SEEN ON SATELLITE CHANNELS OVER PARTS OF
GARFIELD...SW VALLEY...AND NORTH/CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTIES.
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE...WITH NE MT ON
THE COOLER SIDE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTER OVER N MB.
NE-E FLOW FROM THIS TO KEEP OUR TEMPS A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE IN
OUR E...WHILE COOLER AIR IS VERY SHALLOW IN OUR SW AND WILL ERODE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE 25F NE-SW HIGH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR CWA TODAY. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK FINE...ONLY UPDATE IS FOR CLOUD
COVER. SIMONSEN
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY... RELATIVELY STAGNANT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE WILL REMAINED DRAPED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT WITH TYPE BEING
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH
HAVE CLEARED OUT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE MORNING FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PERSISTENCE SEEMS
TO BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY...WHICH
WILL MEAN LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA QUICKLY
COOLING TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
BY TONIGHT THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN ZONES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW
INVERSION AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 3-4C. SREF PRECIPITATION TYPE
PROBABILITIES ALSO SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AS THE PREFERRED
TYPE. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FOR THE MORNING AND THEN LIGHT RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LAYER WARMS ABOVE FREEZING.
850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND 0-2C BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TYPE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW...BUT AGAIN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL TRANSITION TOWARD LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS TODAY WITH AN
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. AJZ
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE AREA BUT A PACIFIC STORM
CRASHING INTO NW CANADA SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND THUS ALLOWING A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS TO
REACH THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS FROM ALASKA SHOULD WRAP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM BY ABOUT FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING BUT ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE TO BRING A RETURN TO MILDER CONDITIONS
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD LOOK LIGHT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT AND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WITH THE MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS...ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
WINDS COULD BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE JET
STREAM WILL BE QUITE STRONG. INCREASED WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. HIGHLIGHTS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY AS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850MB WINDS REACHING 50 KTS. JAMBA
&&
.AVIATION...
A POTPOURRI OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE TO BE FOUND THIS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA IS TO BLAME. SWITCHES IN MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST HEADACHE TODAY. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER LOW
CEILINGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPS THINGS
MIXED. HICKS
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 081631
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
931 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES WHILE TO THE
WEST...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COAST IS BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTH.
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BUT ACTIVITY REMAINS QUITE WEAK. AT LOWER LEVELS...A
SURFACE LEE TROF OVER ALBERTA EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARDS GTF AND SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WERE QUITE A BIT
COOLER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND A BOUNDARY HAS SET UP BETWEEN
THIS AREA AND POINTS FARTHER WEST. SOME POSSIBILITY OF THE EAST
FLOW PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY EAST AND AFFECTING HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST SHOULD COUNTER
THIS. DROPPED SOME POPS ACROSS PLAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING...AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAK. WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. ALSO NUDGED TEMPS UPWARDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BECAUSE OF WARM CURRENT TEMPS AND LOWERED CHANCE
OF PRECIP. ZELZER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1210Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS OBSCURING
MOUNTAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN FOG
THIS MORNING IN THE AREA OF CLEARING NEAR THE KHVR TERMINAL AND WITH
THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN
RISES...THOUGH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 510 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON
AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE POSITION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT WILL MAINLY
IMPACT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE UPPER TROF SHOWS
SIGNS OF SPLITTING AS IT APPROACHES MONTANA SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION
WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS MOST OF THE
TROF ENERGY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL DECLINE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EMANUEL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. AS THESE WINDS
INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA. WINDS DURING THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH...WHILE WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MAY REACH 35 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. WILL THEREFORE ADD A MENTION OF THESE
STRONG WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE NORTHERLY AND DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW. COULSTON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY SO KEPT POPS A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAUCIER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 56 35 48 32 / 20 40 20 30
CTB 53 29 49 31 / 20 40 20 30
HLN 51 31 48 30 / 30 40 40 50
BZN 55 30 54 31 / 40 50 50 50
WEY 38 24 45 29 / 60 60 60 50
DLN 51 28 48 31 / 50 50 50 50
HVR 49 27 43 26 / 10 30 30 20
LWT 52 29 49 30 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 081620 CCA
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
919 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RECENT RAINFALL AND A SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. IN FACT...MANY LOCATIONS ARE
SHOWING DENSE FOG (ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS) PER SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MONTANA...THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW PATTERN AS
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. FORECAST MODELS
REVEAL SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST MONTANA.
&&
.AVIATION...DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL LIFT BY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STATUS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE LOW DECKS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
WEAK NEAR SURFACE WINDS AND A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH DURING TODAY...AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MOST
INTENSE PORTION OF THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TRAVEL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MONTANA-IDAHO
BORDER. BY SUNDAY NIGHT... ONLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSENING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WARM NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT THROUGH
MONDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT VALLEY LEVEL. DESPITE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION. ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE IS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL SLIDE OUT OF CANADA USHERING IN A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (ROUGHLY 5000-6000 FEET). THEN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND CAUSING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO NEAR SEASON
NORMALS.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR LOWER HELLS
CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MSJ
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXUS65 KMSO 081618 AAA
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
918 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RECENT RAINFALL AND A SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. IN FACT...MANY LOCATIONS ARE
SHOWING DENSE FOG (ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS) PER SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE THE SITUATION. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MONTANA...THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW PATTERN AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. FORECAST MODELS REVEAL
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST MONTANA.
&&
.AVIATION...DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL LIFT BY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STATUS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE LOW DECKS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
WEAK NEAR SURFACE WINDS AND A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH DURING TODAY...AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MOST
INTENSE PORTION OF THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TRAVEL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MONTANA-IDAHO
BORDER. BY SUNDAY NIGHT... ONLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSENING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WARM NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT THROUGH
MONDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT VALLEY LEVEL. DESPITE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION. ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE IS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL SLIDE OUT OF CANADA USHERING IN A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (ROUGHLY 5000-6000 FEET). THEN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND CAUSING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO NEAR SEASON
NORMALS.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR LOWER HELLS
CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSJ
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 081330
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
630 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
.UPDATED...
FOG HAS THICKENED OVER ROSEBUD...CUSTER...AND CARTER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM SOUTHEAST OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES JUST JUST WEST OF
THERE TO JUST EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN.
NEAR ZERO DEGREE DEWPOINT SPREADS WITH LIGHT WINDS IS ALLOWING
FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN THESE CLEAR SKEIS. IT IS MOST NOTABLE OVER
ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES AS OF 2 AM. EXPECT THIS FOG TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING LATE THIS MORNING.
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS
SET UP WEST FROM NEAR HARLOWTON TO COLUMBUS TO BRIDGER THIS MORNING.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS OCCURRING FROM COLUMBUS TO BRIDGER.
MODELS ARE NOT REALLY DEPICTING THIS RAIN BAND VERY WELL. BASED ON
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRENDS...AM EXPECTING THIS
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN
FIZZLE OUT. WILL RAISE POPS TO 60 OR GREATER FROM COLUMBUS INTO
THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS...BUT A
STRAY SHOWER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL ALSO LIKELY
REMAIN SCATTERED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AM WATCHING THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER MESSY WITH A MAIN PORTION
OF THE WAVE DROPPING INTO COLORADO AND ANOTHER PORTION OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING. SOME MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES STARTING TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WONT MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPLITTING NATURE MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT THE PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORING THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BIG HORNS AND FOOTHILLS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW COOL THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AND IN FACT THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE HAD A WARMING TRENDS. SO WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...AN ACCUMULATING SNOW
BELOW 6000 FEET IS NOT LOOKING AS FAVORABLE AS BEFORE.
MOORE
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY WITH UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING A GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN THESE AREAS TO LIKELY FOR MONDAY. MODELS FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW TO THE FOOTHILLS ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS REGION. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA AND ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. STRONG +150KT JET MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT 700MB. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX
DOWN OVER THE PLAINS FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS. SHOULD SEE
GOOD MIXING ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KBIL TO KBHK THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM KLVM TO KBIL
TODAY WHICH WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH
WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 030/042 030/041 030/047 032/047 031/052 032/047
4/W 33/W 44/W 22/W 12/W 23/W 22/W
LVM 048 033/045 029/042 026/045 031/046 034/052 031/047
5/W 35/W 56/W 32/W 23/W 43/W 22/W
HDN 045 027/045 026/044 027/050 028/047 028/051 030/051
1/E 33/W 44/W 21/B 12/W 23/W 22/W
MLS 037 021/035 021/035 024/045 027/045 029/051 030/048
1/F 12/J 33/J 21/B 11/B 23/W 11/B
4BQ 039 022/036 021/037 023/047 026/041 029/051 029/049
1/B 22/W 33/J 22/W 12/W 23/W 21/B
BHK 033 016/031 016/030 021/040 024/040 025/048 026/044
1/B 12/J 22/J 21/B 11/B 23/W 11/B
SHR 047 025/046 025/043 025/047 026/047 025/052 028/048
2/W 43/W 56/W 42/W 22/W 23/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 31-32-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 081210
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
510 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON
AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE POSITION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT WILL MAINLY
IMPACT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE UPPER TROF SHOWS
SIGNS OF SPLITTING AS IT APPROACHES MONTANA SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION
WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS MOST OF THE
TROF ENERGY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL DECLINE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EMANUEL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. AS THESE WINDS
INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA. WINDS DURING THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH...WHILE WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MAY REACH 35 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. WILL THEREFORE ADD A MENTION OF THESE
STRONG WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE NORTHERLY AND DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW. COULSTON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY SO KEPT POPS A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAUCIER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1210Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS OBSCURING
MOUNTAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN FOG
THIS MORNING IN THE AREA OF CLEARING NEAR THE KHVR TERMINAL AND WITH
THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN
RISES...THOUGH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. COULSTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 53 35 48 32 / 40 40 20 30
CTB 52 29 49 31 / 30 40 20 30
HLN 50 31 48 30 / 50 40 40 50
BZN 54 30 54 31 / 40 50 50 50
WEY 42 24 45 29 / 60 60 60 50
DLN 48 28 48 31 / 60 50 50 50
HVR 46 27 43 26 / 30 30 30 20
LWT 52 29 49 30 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...COULSTON/SAUCIER
AVIATION...COULSTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 081135
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON
AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE POSITION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT WILL MAINLY
IMPACT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE UPPER TROF SHOWS
SIGNS OF SPLITTING AS IT APPROACHES MONTANA SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION
WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS MOST OF THE
TROF ENERGY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL DECLINE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EMANUEL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. AS THESE WINDS
INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA. WINDS DURING THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH...WHILE WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MAY REACH 35 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. WILL THEREFORE ADD A MENTION OF THESE
STRONG WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE NORTHERLY AND DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW. COULSTON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY SO KEPT POPS A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAUCIER
&&
.AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
THE AREA. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 24Z SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE OCCASIONALLY RESTRICTED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE IN FOG WITH
THE RAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. GENERALLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KHVR AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES BY LATER TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN AREAS AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY. DB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 53 35 48 32 / 40 40 20 30
CTB 52 29 49 31 / 30 40 20 30
HLN 50 31 48 30 / 50 40 40 50
BZN 54 30 54 31 / 40 50 50 50
WEY 42 24 45 29 / 60 60 60 50
DLN 48 28 48 31 / 60 50 50 50
HVR 46 27 43 26 / 30 30 30 20
LWT 52 29 49 30 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...COULSTON/SAUCIER
AVIATION...DB
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 081051
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
351 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
WEAK NEAR SURFACE WINDS AND A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH DURING TODAY...AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MOST
INTENSE PORTION OF THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TRAVEL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MONTANA-IDAHO
BORDER. BY SUNDAY NIGHT... ONLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSENING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WARM NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT THROUGH
MONDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT VALLEY LEVEL. DESPITE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION. ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE IS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL SLIDE OUT OF CANADA USHERING IN A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (ROUGHLY 5000-6000 FEET). THEN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND CAUSING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO NEAR SEASON
NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL DURING
THIS TIME NEAR KGPI AND KMSO. LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST NEAR KMSO THROUGH 15Z FOR FOG...WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL NEAR KSMN THROUGH 00Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. FLIGHT CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR
ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR KBTM THROUGH 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH 02Z...AND PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REGION AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZUMPFE
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...ZUMPFE
000
FXUS65 KGGW 081044
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
344 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL
REMAINED DRAPED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT WITH TYPE BEING THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH
HAVE CLEARED OUT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE MORNING FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PERSISTENCE SEEMS
TO BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY...WHICH
WILL MEAN LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA QUICKLY
COOLING TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
BY TONIGHT THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN ZONES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW
INVERSION AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 3-4C. SREF PRECIPITATION TYPE
PROBABILITIES ALSO SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AS THE PREFERRED
TYPE. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FOR THE MORNING AND THEN LIGHT RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LAYER WARMS ABOVE FREEZING.
850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND 0-2C BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TYPE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW...BUT AGAIN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL TRANSITION TOWARD LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS TODAY WITH AN
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. AJZ
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE AREA BUT A PACIFIC STORM
CRASHING INTO NW CANADA SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND THUS ALLOWING A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS TO
REACH THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS FROM ALASKA SHOULD WRAP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM BY ABOUT FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING BUT ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE TO BRING A RETURN TO MILDER CONDITIONS
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD LOOK LIGHT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT AND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WITH THE MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS...ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
WINDS COULD BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE JET
STREAM WILL BE QUITE STRONG. INCREASED WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. HIGHLIGHTS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY AS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850MB WINDS REACHING 50 KTS. JAMBA
&&
.AVIATION...
A POTPOURRI OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE TO BE FOUND THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA IS TO BLAME. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST
HEADACHE TODAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX OUT FOG PATCHES THAT
RESIDE THIS MORNING. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER LOW CEILINGS WILL
RETURN TONIGHT AND HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. FOG SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPS THINGS MIXED. JAMBA
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 081007
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM SOUTHEAST OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES JUST JUST WEST OF
THERE TO JUST EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN.
NEAR ZERO DEGREE DEWPOINT SPREADS WITH LIGHT WINDS IS ALLOWING
FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN THESE CLEAR SKEIS. IT IS MOST NOTABLE OVER
ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES AS OF 2 AM. EXPECT THIS FOG TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING LATE THIS MORNING.
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS
SET UP WEST FROM NEAR HARLOWTON TO COLUMBUS TO BRIDGER THIS MORNING.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS OCCURRING FROM COLUMBUS TO BRIDGER.
MODELS ARE NOT REALLY DEPICTING THIS RAIN BAND VERY WELL. BASED ON
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRENDS...AM EXPECTING THIS
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN
FIZZLE OUT. WILL RAISE POPS TO 60 OR GREATER FROM COLUMBUS INTO
THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS...BUT A
STRAY SHOWER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL ALSO LIKELY
REMAIN SCATTERED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AM WATCHING THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER MESSY WITH A MAIN PORTION
OF THE WAVE DROPPING INTO COLORADO AND ANOTHER PORTION OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING. SOME MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES STARTING TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WONT MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPLITTING NATURE MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT THE PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORING THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BIG HORNS AND FOOTHILLS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW COOL THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AND IN FACT THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE HAD A WARMING TRENDS. SO WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...AN ACCUMULATING SNOW
BELOW 6000 FEET IS NOT LOOKING AS FAVORABLE AS BEFORE.
MOORE
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY WITH UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING A GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN THESE AREAS TO LIKELY FOR MONDAY. MODELS FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW TO THE FOOTHILLS ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS REGION. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA AND ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. STRONG +150KT JET MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT 700MB. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX
DOWN OVER THE PLAINS FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS. SHOULD SEE
GOOD MIXING ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KBIL TO KBHK THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM KLVM TO KBIL
TODAY WHICH WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH
WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 030/042 030/041 030/047 032/047 031/052 032/047
4/W 33/W 44/W 22/W 12/W 23/W 22/W
LVM 048 033/045 029/042 026/045 031/046 034/052 031/047
5/W 35/W 56/W 32/W 23/W 43/W 22/W
HDN 045 027/045 026/044 027/050 028/047 028/051 030/051
1/E 33/W 44/W 21/B 12/W 23/W 22/W
MLS 037 021/035 021/035 024/045 027/045 029/051 030/048
1/B 12/J 33/J 21/B 11/B 23/W 11/B
4BQ 039 022/036 021/037 023/047 026/041 029/051 029/049
1/B 22/W 33/J 22/W 12/W 23/W 21/B
BHK 033 016/031 016/030 021/040 024/040 025/048 026/044
1/B 12/J 22/J 21/B 11/B 23/W 11/B
SHR 047 025/046 025/043 025/047 026/047 025/052 028/048
2/W 43/W 56/W 42/W 22/W 23/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 080552
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
UPDATE AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES OVER A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS RELATED TO SOME LIFT OVER A COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THAT AREA ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. INCREASED POPS
IN THE AREA OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND RADAR ECHOES FOR THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. ALSO BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED SKY COVER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ALSO
BASED ON SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ADDED
SOME PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG TO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FOR LATER TONIGHT.
BLANK
&&
.AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
THE AREA. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 24Z SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE OCCASIONALLY RESTRICTED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE IN FOG WITH
THE RAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. GENERALLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KHVR AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES BY LATER TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN AREAS AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY. DB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 36 51 31 45 / 30 40 40 30
CTB 30 47 28 45 / 20 50 40 30
HLN 33 45 29 44 / 90 50 40 40
BZN 34 47 28 51 / 100 40 50 50
WEY 30 39 25 41 / 90 60 60 60
DLN 35 47 30 44 / 70 60 50 50
HVR 22 44 21 41 / 10 30 30 20
LWT 30 48 27 44 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 080507
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1007 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES OVER A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS RELATED TO SOME LIFT OVER A COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THAT AREA ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. INCREASED POPS
IN THE AREA OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND RADAR ECHOES FOR THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. ALSO BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED SKY COVER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ALSO
BASED ON SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ADDED
SOME PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG TO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FOR LATER TONIGHT.
BLANK
&&
.AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
THE AREA. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 24Z ATURDAY. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. GENERALLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE CUT BANK AND GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
DB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 524 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008/
FXUS65 KTFX 080024
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
524 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO HAVE THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
AGREE BETTER WITH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECTED ZONES AND TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 36 51 31 45 / 30 40 40 30
CTB 30 47 28 45 / 20 50 40 30
HLN 33 45 29 44 / 90 50 40 40
BZN 34 47 28 51 / 100 40 50 50
WEY 30 39 25 41 / 90 60 60 60
DLN 35 47 30 44 / 70 60 50 50
HVR 22 44 21 41 / 10 30 30 20
LWT 30 48 27 44 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 080446
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
946 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED MUCH OF THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INCLUDING POP`S AND TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODE
DATA (00Z RUNS OF THE RUC/NAM/GFS) SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA. RAIN WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
MONTANA ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN OVERCAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE FORMATION OF AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE COOLING TONIGHT WITH
MOST TEMPERATURES STAYING STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE THUS RAISED
A FEW FORECAST MINIMUM`S TO ACCOMMODATE THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS. FOG
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONTINUOUS RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS OF THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAY SEE
UPWARDS OF AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE SUNSET SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...STALLED MID LEVEL FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY MID
DAY. KMSO AND KGPI WILL BE THE MAIN AIRFIELDS IMPACTED. THE
SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS WILL SEE RAIN AND LOWERED CEILINGS THIS
EVENING...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN
RETURNS ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008/
DISCUSSION...A VERY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND VERY LITTLE
DIURNAL DIFFERENCE WILL BE EXPERIENCED FROM THE CENTRAL
CLEARWATER`S THROUGH MISSOULA AND THE MISSION MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NEARLY STATIONARY MID
LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME RIDING ALONG
IT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH EAST AND A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOTION TO BREAK UP THE
PRECIPITATION FOR A SHORT TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING KEEPING UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE
SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...BUT ALSO DECREASE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE NO HIGHLIGHTS
ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE MORE MOISTURE
IS INTRODUCED.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
VARIANCE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER WITH
INFLUENCE FROM THE JET STREAM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MAY
HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DECENT LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS A FEATURE THAT CONTINUES TO COME UP
WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS
AS TIME PASSES.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DICKERSON
LONG TERM....ALLEGRETTO
AVIATION...KOLATA
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 080436
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
936 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. BAND OF
PRECIPITATION STRETCHES NORTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF GREAT FALLS. QG
FORCING WAS PRETTY WEAK...BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER
THE WEST AND CATEGORICAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FORCING ABATES
OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE THOUGHT OF SCATTERED POPS PAST
MIDNIGHT. BUMPED CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP
OFF OVER ALL BUT THE EAST. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
KEEP CLOUDS AROUND A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT. RAISED LOWS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OVER ALL BUT THE EAST. CLEARING LINE HAS MOVED INTO
THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN MORE AGGRESSIVELY THERE.
THIS HANDLED PRETTY WELL IN GOING PACKAGE...BUT WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD GET IN THERE OVERNIGHT AND SLOW THE COOL DOWN.
KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG FOR THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS AROUND 4 DEGREES. UPDATE ALREADY SENT. HUMPHREY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS COME MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONG TROUGH WITH SEVERAL VORT MAXES MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BUT BEGINS TO LOSE
SOME OF ITS STRENGTH COME MONDAY AS WHATS LEFT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
GETS SHIFTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST UTAH WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW OVER MONTANA. NOT THE BEST DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND BIG
HORNS...AS WELL AS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THESE RANGES. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT STRONG SO SNOW
OVERALL SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE PLAINS...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
SPLIT FLOW THEN A FAST ZONAL FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND
STILLWATER VALLEYS. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. A STRONG FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUMPED READINGS UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND QUIET A FEW DEGREES FOR THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE
AND STILLWATER VALLEYS DURING THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND PERIODS
OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS SPREADING VFR CEILINGS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE COLDER AIRMASS OVER FAR EASTERN
ZONES KEEPS MVFR TYPE CEILINGS A POSSIBILITY THERE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED WEST OF A LEWISTOWN TO BILLINGS TO
SHERIDAN LINE TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A BAKER TO HARDIN TO RED LODGE LINE BY MORNING. THE BEST
AREAS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AREA RIVER VALLEYS
INCLUDING KLVM...KBIL AND KMLS. NORTHEAST AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES AROUND
1/2SM AT KMLS AND KBHK BY SUNRISE. VISIBILITIES AT KLVM AND KBIL LOOK
TO BE AROUND 2 TO 3 MILES IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...SOME INDICATION
THAT A LIFR STRATUS DECK WILL DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS INSTEAD.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TO CONTINUE FOR ALL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT BELOW 7KFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/047 029/039 026/042 027/045 029/043 026/049 026/047
23/W 33/W 43/W 21/B 12/W 23/W 22/W
LVM 036/048 031/043 026/040 024/043 030/043 038/052 027/047
65/W 35/W 54/W 22/W 23/W 43/W 22/W
HDN 034/045 027/041 023/044 026/048 025/045 026/049 026/048
23/W 33/W 43/W 21/B 12/W 23/W 22/W
MLS 024/035 019/032 016/036 021/042 023/043 027/049 027/048
11/B 12/J 33/J 21/B 11/B 23/W 22/W
4BQ 026/036 020/032 016/036 021/044 023/039 030/050 029/047
11/B 22/J 43/J 22/W 12/W 23/W 22/W
BHK 018/031 014/026 014/032 019/038 021/038 023/046 023/044
11/B 12/J 22/J 21/B 11/B 23/W 22/W
SHR 029/047 024/044 022/043 023/045 024/045 023/051 023/049
23/W 43/W 54/W 42/W 22/W 23/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KGGW 080411 AAA
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
911 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS BISECTING MONTANA FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LEAVING NORTHEAST MONTANA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE
WEST ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE RIDGE...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER TO
THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE BLIZZARD IN THE DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN IS
A NARROW BAND OF CLEARING IN THE WESTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMED UP A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES WITH THE
LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. AJZ
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND IS NOW A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OUR W. THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALONG IT
HAS WANED AND AIRMASS DRYING AS WARM ADVECTION HAS ENDED AND UNDER
UPPER RIDGING. PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS NE MT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE EVE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER
NE AB AND NW SK TO MOVE SE ACROSS OUR E LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORN. MODELS VARY IN MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT ALL HAVE NO QPF. LIGHT
SNOW IN THIS AREA NOW ONLY LOOKS HEADED TO WHERE IT MAY JUST
BRUSH OUR NE...THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS IN 10 PCT RANGE. THERE WAS
VERY LITTLE FOG IN OUR AREA LAST NIGHT...AND NAM WAS TOO MOIST.
NAM LOOKS AGAIN TOO MOIST TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS FALLING...AND
ALREADY WELL BELOW MOS...AND SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...WILL HAVE
NO FOG IN GRIDS.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE ARE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH CENTER OVER N MB
STARTS TO EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE S INTO ND AND NE MT. THIS WILL KEEP
A WEAK SUPPLY OF COOLER AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE E-NE SAT
THRU SUN...KEEPING MOST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW POTENTIAL AND A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MODERATE NE-SW
TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA...AND THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND MILDER PACIFIC AIR...WHICH WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR SW. EXPECT THAT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE...AND ONLY SMALL POPS IN OUR SW WHERE LIGHT
UPSLOPE-INDUCED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. EMPHASIS IS ON LIGHT...AND
TYPE OF ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TO BE BOTH LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW.
MODELS CONSISTENTLY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST TO MAINLY MOVE INLAND WELL TO OUR S SUNDAY.
THIS UNDERCUTS THE HIGH ALOFT...WHICH A PIECE OF GETS CUT OFF OVER
NE MT AND S SK. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH OUR W THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT REFLECTED FOR MOST OUR AREA THOUGH WITH MINOR QPF JUST
REACHING OUR W-SW. MOS INDICATES SE WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SIMONSEN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD RECOMBINING BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG JET PUNCHES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OPERATIONAL GFS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS
THE OUTLIER MODEL. WILL KEEP CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...WITH A SHALLOWER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ALL MODELS DO BRING A STRONG SURGE
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT FRIDAY SO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ALSO EXPECT SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
WAVE SO INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. EBERT
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...A SPLIT FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS
ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM CARVING OUT A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM TRAVERSES ABOVE THE CANADIAN
TUNDRA ABOUT 60-65N WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. GLOBAL
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS
LONGWAVE PATTERN. MODELS PULL PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND LOOK VERY BULLISH WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY ECMWF) FOR THE
EXPECTED PATTERN. NONETHELESS A COOL AIRMASS TO THE EAST WILL
CREATE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EMPHASIZE LIGHT IN
THE INTENSITY WORDING.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
FAR NORTH/SOUTH THE JET WILL POSITION ITSELF...BUT EITHER WAY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND
THEN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. AJZ
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS HINTING AT A FAST MOVING TROF ON THURSDAY
DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY TO THURSDAY EVENING
TIME FRAME. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM ARE
IN QUESTION AS THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER...WEAKER AND DRIER THEN THE 00Z GFS. THE PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX WITH THIS SYSTEM IF THE GFS IS ACCURATE. ROB
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS TO
KSDY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR KSDY TO STAY ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. BROKEN TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL ALLOW FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY. GFF
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 080024
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
524 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO HAVE THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
AGREE BETTER WITH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECTED ZONES AND TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
THE AREA. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 24Z ATURDAY. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. GENERALLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE CUT BANK AND GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
DB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008/
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
APPROACHING THE ROCKIES AND MOIST...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS ARE GENERALLY QUITE
WEAK BUT WEAK UPWARD FORCING ALONG WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH AND MOST SNOW WILL
BE RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST.
THE MAIN JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
4-CORNERS LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF WEAK DYNAMICS.
A CLOSED LOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
BY SUNDAY AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO CONTINUE MOIST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE DAY. THE AIRMASS
IS QUITE WARM BUT WILL BEGIN TO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...HOWEVER...DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP...AND BEGIN TO COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMALS BY SUNDAY. ZELZER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... COOL...CLOUDY...AND WET PATTERN
FROM THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN
ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER WESTERN BOUNDARY OF LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED
IN CENTRAL US/CAN. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THRU MONDAY...SHOWING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF CWA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT PEAKS ABOVE 6000 FT COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES
BEFORE THE UPPER TROF MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON TUES. BRIEF RIDGING ON
TUES AFTN WILL GIVE REGION A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIP...BUT
NEW WAVE OF PAC MOISTURE ARRIVES WED AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW SEASONAL VALUES
THRU THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DAILY VARIABILITY...AS EVIDENCED BY
NEAR-CONSTANT THICKNESS VALUES FROM MON-WED. WARANAUSKAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL
AS IT IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLES. THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER A MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO
WILL GO WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PROG 700
MB WINDS OVER 70 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WILLIAMSON DC/BRUSDA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 36 51 31 45 / 30 40 40 30
CTB 30 47 28 45 / 20 50 40 30
HLN 33 45 29 44 / 70 50 40 40
BZN 34 47 28 51 / 70 40 50 50
WEY 30 39 25 41 / 90 60 60 60
DLN 35 47 30 44 / 70 60 50 50
HVR 22 44 21 41 / 20 30 30 20
LWT 30 48 27 44 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 072335
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
UPDATE AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
APPROACHING THE ROCKIES AND MOIST...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS ARE GENERALLY QUITE
WEAK BUT WEAK UPWARD FORCING ALONG WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH AND MOST SNOW WILL
BE RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST.
THE MAIN JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
4-CORNERS LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF WEAK DYNAMICS.
A CLOSED LOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
BY SUNDAY AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO CONTINUE MOIST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE DAY. THE AIRMASS
IS QUITE WARM BUT WILL BEGIN TO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...HOWEVER...DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP...AND BEGIN TO COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMALS BY SUNDAY. ZELZER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... COOL...CLOUDY...AND WET PATTERN
FROM THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN
ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER WESTERN BOUNDARY OF LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED
IN CENTRAL US/CAN. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THRU MONDAY...SHOWING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF CWA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT PEAKS ABOVE 6000 FT COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES
BEFORE THE UPPER TROF MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON TUES. BRIEF RIDGING ON
TUES AFTN WILL GIVE REGION A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIP...BUT
NEW WAVE OF PAC MOISTURE ARRIVES WED AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW SEASONAL VALUES
THRU THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DAILY VARIABILITY...AS EVIDENCED BY
NEAR-CONSTANT THICKNESS VALUES FROM MON-WED. WARANAUSKAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL
AS IT IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLES. THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER A MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO
WILL GO WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PROG 700
MB WINDS OVER 70 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WILLIAMSON DC/BRUSDA
&&
.AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
THE AREA. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 24Z ATURDAY. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. GENERALLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE CUT BANK AND GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
DB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 36 51 31 45 / 30 40 40 30
CTB 30 47 28 45 / 20 50 40 30
HLN 33 45 29 44 / 70 50 40 40
BZN 34 47 28 51 / 70 40 50 50
WEY 30 39 25 41 / 90 60 60 60
DLN 35 47 30 44 / 70 60 50 50
HVR 22 44 21 41 / 20 30 30 20
LWT 30 48 27 44 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KGGW 072203
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
303 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WARM FRONT DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND IS NOW A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OUR W. THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALONG IT
HAS WANED AND AIRMASS DRYING AS WARM ADVECTION HAS ENDED AND UNDER
UPPER RIDGING. PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS NE MT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE EVE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER
NE AB AND NW SK TO MOVE SE ACROSS OUR E LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORN. MODELS VARY IN MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT ALL HAVE NO QPF. LIGHT
SNOW IN THIS AREA NOW ONLY LOOKS HEADED TO WHERE IT MAY JUST
BRUSH OUR NE...THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS IN 10 PCT RANGE. THERE WAS
VERY LITTLE FOG IN OUR AREA LAST NIGHT...AND NAM WAS TOO MOIST.
NAM LOOKS AGAIN TOO MOIST TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS FALLING...AND
ALREADY WELL BELOW MOS...AND SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...WILL HAVE
NO FOG IN GRIDS.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE ARE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH CENTER OVER N MB
STARTS TO EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE S INTO ND AND NE MT. THIS WILL KEEP
A WEAK SUPPLY OF COOLER AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE E-NE SAT
THRU SUN...KEEPING MOST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW POTENTIAL AND A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MODERATE NE-SW
TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA...AND THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND MILDER PACIFIC AIR...WHICH WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR SW. EXPECT THAT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE...AND ONLY SMALL POPS IN OUR SW WHERE LIGHT
UPSLOPE-INDUCED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. EMPHASIS IS ON LIGHT...AND
TYPE OF ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TO BE BOTH LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW.
MODELS CONSISTENTLY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST TO MAINLY MOVE INLAND WELL TO OUR S SUNDAY.
THIS UNDERCUTS THE HIGH ALOFT...WHICH A PIECE OF GETS CUT OFF OVER
NE MT AND S SK. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH OUR W THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT REFLECTED FOR MOST OUR AREA THOUGH WITH MINOR QPF JUST
REACHING OUR W-SW. MOS INDICATES SE WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SIMONSEN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD RECOMBINING BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG JET PUNCHES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OPERATIONAL GFS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS
THE OUTLIER MODEL. WILL KEEP CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...WITH A SHALLOWER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ALL MODELS DO BRING A STRONG SURGE
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT FRIDAY SO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ALSO EXPECT SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
WAVE SO INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. EBERT
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...A SPLIT FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS
ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM CARVING OUT A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM TRAVERSES ABOVE THE CANADIAN
TUNDRA ABOUT 60-65N WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. GLOBAL
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS
LONGWAVE PATTERN. MODELS PULL PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND LOOK VERY BULLISH WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY ECMWF) FOR THE
EXPECTED PATTERN. NONETHELESS A COOL AIRMASS TO THE EAST WILL
CREATE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EMPHASIZE LIGHT IN
THE INTENSITY WORDING.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
FAR NORTH/SOUTH THE JET WILL POSITION ITSELF...BUT EITHER WAY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND
THEN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. AJZ
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS HINTING AT A FAST MOVING TROF ON THURSDAY
DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY TO THURSDAY EVENING
TIME FRAME. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM ARE
IN QUESTION AS THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER...WEAKER AND DRIER THEN THE 00Z GFS. THE PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX WITH THIS SYSTEM IF THE GFS IS ACCURATE. ROB
&&
.AVIATION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE WIND
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT...THEN TURN SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS
ON SATURDAY. RAE
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 072143
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
243 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
COUPLE WEATHER SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE AREA NEXT FEW DAYS...BIGGEST
CONCERN OF THESE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE STARTING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IN FOOTHILLS AREAS AS WEAK UPPER LOW CAUSES SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW. OTHER THAN THIS...A PERSISTENT MOIST STABLE AIRMASS WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE. THIS PATTERN ALREADY PRODUCING SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW IN THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF
THE ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFT IS PRETTY
WEAK AND DENDRETIC LAYER NOT GREAT SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY IN
THE 2 TO 4 RANGE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS ISOLATED IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES IN MORE DOWNSLOPE AND NO ORGANIZED WAVE ACTIVITY
LIKE LAST NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHICH DOES PUT SOME UPPER RIDGING OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA...BUT AT LOW LEVELS A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AREA WILL BE IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN INTO DAKOTAS AND
PRESSURES FALL WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ON TOP OF THAT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING IN
CENTRAL/WEST PLAINS FOR THESE FEATURES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
EASTERN ZONES AS PERSISTENT AREA OF COOL AIR AND RECENT SNOWFALLS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THERE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING. WEST
COAST ENERGY PROGGED BY GFS/NAM TO DIG ACROSS IDAHO TO NORTHEAST
NEVADA BY MONDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOW TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM SIMILAR WITH SREF/NAM COMING A BIT
FURTHER EAST. RESULT WILL BE THAT UPPER FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY IN
OUR SOUTH AND WEST ZONES...SETTING UP A DEEP UPSLOPE PATTERN.
UPSLOPE WILL BE GOOD...BUT OTHER THAN THAT NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON
AS AIRMASS PRETTY STABLE...UPPER FLOW WEAK AND NOT MUCH ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOOTHILLS SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW AT THIS
TIME...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THAT MAY BE PUSHING
IT...SO WILL COVER IN HWO FOR NOW. RASCH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS COME MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONG TROUGH WITH SEVERAL VORT MAXES MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BUT BEGINS TO LOSE
SOME OF ITS STRENGTH COME MONDAY AS WHATS LEFT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
GETS SHIFTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST UTAH WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW OVER MONTANA. NOT THE BEST DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND BIG
HORNS...AS WELL AS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THESE RANGES. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT STRONG SO SNOW
OVERALL SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE PLAINS...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
SPLIT FLOW THEN A FAST ZONAL FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND
STILLWATER VALLEYS. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. A STRONG FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUMPED READINGS UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND QUITE A FEW DEGREES FOR THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND
STILLWATER VALLEYS DURING THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND PERIODS OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITION IN ANY
SHOWER. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/047 029/039 026/042 027/045 029/043 026/049 026/047
23/W 33/W 43/W 21/B 12/W 23/W 22/W
LVM 034/048 031/043 026/040 024/043 030/043 038/052 027/047
45/W 35/W 54/W 22/W 23/W 43/W 22/W
HDN 031/045 027/041 023/044 026/048 025/045 026/049 026/048
23/W 33/W 43/W 21/B 12/W 23/W 22/W
MLS 026/035 019/032 016/036 021/042 023/043 027/049 027/048
11/B 12/J 33/J 21/B 11/B 23/W 22/W
4BQ 026/036 020/032 016/036 021/044 023/039 030/050 029/047
11/B 22/J 43/J 22/W 12/W 23/W 22/W
BHK 019/031 014/026 014/032 019/038 021/038 023/046 023/044
11/B 12/J 22/J 21/B 11/B 23/W 22/W
SHR 029/047 024/044 022/043 023/045 024/045 023/051 023/049
23/W 43/W 54/W 42/W 22/W 23/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 072142
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
242 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
APPROACHING THE ROCKIES AND MOIST...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS ARE GENERALLY QUITE
WEAK BUT WEAK UPWARD FORCING ALONG WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH AND MOST SNOW WILL
BE RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST.
THE MAIN JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
4-CORNERS LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF WEAK DYNAMICS.
A CLOSED LOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
BY SUNDAY AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO CONTINUE MOIST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE DAY. THE AIRMASS
IS QUITE WARM BUT WILL BEGIN TO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...HOWEVER...DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP...AND BEGIN TO COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMALS BY SUNDAY. ZELZER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... COOL...CLOUDY...AND WET PATTERN
FROM THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN
ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER WESTERN BOUNDARY OF LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED
IN CENTRAL US/CAN. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THRU MONDAY...SHOWING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF CWA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT PEAKS ABOVE 6000 FT COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES
BEFORE THE UPPER TROF MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON TUES. BRIEF RIDGING ON
TUES AFTN WILL GIVE REGION A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIP...BUT
NEW WAVE OF PAC MOISTURE ARRIVES WED AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW SEASONAL VALUES
THRU THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DAILY VARIABILITY...AS EVIDENCED BY
NEAR-CONSTANT THICKNESS VALUES FROM MON-WED. WARANAUSKAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL
AS IT IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLES. THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER A MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO
WILL GO WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PROG 700
MB WINDS OVER 70 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WILLIAMSON DC/BRUSDA
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. GENERALLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE CUT BANK AND GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
BRUSDA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 36 51 31 45 / 30 40 40 30
CTB 30 47 28 45 / 20 50 40 30
HLN 33 45 29 44 / 70 50 40 40
BZN 34 47 28 51 / 70 40 50 50
WEY 30 39 25 41 / 90 60 60 60
DLN 35 47 30 44 / 70 60 50 50
HVR 22 44 21 41 / 20 30 30 20
LWT 30 48 27 44 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 072127
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
227 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...A VERY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND VERY LITTLE
DIURNAL DIFFERENCE WILL BE EXPERIENCED FROM THE CENTRAL
CLEARWATERS THROUGH MISSOULA AND THE MISSION MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NEARLY STATIONARY MID
LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME RIDING ALONG
IT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH EAST AND A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOTION TO BREAK UP THE
PRECIPITATION FOR A SHORT TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING KEEPING UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE
SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...BUT ALSO DECREASE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE NO HIGHLIGHTS
ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE MORE MOISTURE
IS INTRODUCED.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
VARIANCE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER WITH
INFLUENCE FROM THE JET STREAM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MAY
HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DECENT LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS A FEATURE THAT CONTINUES TO COME UP
WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS
AS TIME PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...STALLED MID LEVEL FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY MID DAY. KMSO
AND KGPI WILL BE THE MAIN AIRFIELDS IMPACTED. THE SOUTHERN
AIRFIELDS WILL SEE RAIN AND LOWERED CEILINGS THIS EVENING...THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MEAD
LONG TERM....ALLEGRETTO
000
FXUS65 KTFX 071817
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1115 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
.UPDATE...
TODAY...A SURFACE LOW IS OVER HVR WITH TROF DOWN THROUGH LWT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE CONTDVD WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
SOME DECENT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY. A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVELS BUT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND WILL KEEP THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA QUITE MOIST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION IS WEAK BUT DOES
EXIST...AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL BOOST
POPS...AND SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER SW MT AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AS REASONABLE. ZELZER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. GENERALLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE CUT BANK AND GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
BRUSDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA
TODAY BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE ITSELF. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT GENERALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO CENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. BY SUNDAY A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO AFFECT MAINLY
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN THOUGH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE PERIOD. EMANUEL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... COOL...CLOUDY...AND WET
PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
NORTHERN ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER WESTERN BOUNDARY OF LONGWAVE TROF
CENTERED IN CENTRAL US/CAN. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THRU MONDAY...SHOWING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF CWA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT PEAKS ABOVE 6000 FT COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES BEFORE THE UPPER TROF MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON TUES.
BRIEF RIDGING ON TUES AFTN WILL GIVE REGION A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP...BUT NEW WAVE OF PAC MOISTURE ARRIVES WED AFTN AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THRU THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DAILY VARIABILITY...AS
EVIDENCED BY NEAR-CONSTANT THICKNESS VALUES FROM MON-WED.
WARANAUSKAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG WAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL AS IT IS
IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLES. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO
WILL GO WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. WILLIAMSON DC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 51 35 52 34 / 20 30 30 30
CTB 49 29 51 29 / 10 20 30 30
HLN 48 32 51 32 / 50 30 20 40
BZN 50 33 55 32 / 50 30 30 40
WEY 36 29 42 28 / 70 40 40 50
DLN 49 32 48 32 / 60 20 40 40
HVR 46 23 45 25 / 20 20 20 30
LWT 47 29 50 30 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KGGW 071702
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1002 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY...
WARM FRONT DEVELOPED OVER NE MT...WHICH IS BRINGING SCATTERED
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THIS MORN. WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING SE ALONG BOUNDARY WHERE WARM FRONT TURNS STATIONARY. 12Z
KGGW SOUNDING SHOWED WARMING AT ALL LEVELS JUST OFF THE SURFACE IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS...PEAKING AT 8C AT 850 MB. THERE IS A FAIRLY
DEEP...BUT NOT REAL STRONG...INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850
MB. MODELS ARE SLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE...COLDER
TOPPED CLOUDS ALMOST OUR OF OUR AREA NOW...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
NOSING IN FROM THE NW FROM S AB INTO NC MT. MODELS SHOW NO
ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT EXPECTED...WITH DRYING AND WEAKENING
UPPER SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES REST OF
THE MORN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AFTERNOON. TEMPS TO DEPEND ON
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR AFTERNOON TO WARM LEVELS BELOW 850 MB.
SIMONSEN
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE AREA THE LAST FEW
DAYS SPINNING MERRILY OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORTWAVE ALREADY
PUSHING SIGNIFICANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THIS WAVE COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA. LEE SURFACE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MOVE IN THIS MORNING BUT WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST EXERTS SOME MUSCLE AND BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
SCOURED OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE...LEAVING
A DECREASING CLOUDS TYPE OF AFTERNOON FOR MOST. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BRING IN SOME
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WHICH WILL CLASH
WITH THE IN PLACE COLD AIR...SETTING UP A BOUNDARY ORIENTED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THRU SUNDAY.
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF IT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THRU THE
WEEKEND. TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE DRIER AND COLDER AIR IT WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH LESS CLOUDINESS. INDICATIONS ARE THE BOUNDARY WILL
FLUCTUATE A BIT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIKELY GET
SHOVED SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SINKS
SOUTHEAST THRU THE GREAT BASIN AND ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CWA TO SINK SOUTHWEST WHICH LETS THE COLD AIR PERVADE FARTHER
SOUTHWEST AND ENCOMPASS MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. THUS A
CHILLY SATURDAY EXPECTED FOR MOST...AND SUNDAY FOR ALL. THE
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN COLDEST AS THE STAY IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. OTHER THAN
SOME BRISK EAST WIND IN AND AROUND THE GLASGOW AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WIND SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MORE TIMID SIDE THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHO SOME SPOTS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
THIS MORNING MAY STILL EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS DUE TO
THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WIND SHOULD ABATE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM CARVING OUT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM TRAVERSES
ABOVE THE CANADIAN TUNDRA ABOUT 60-65N WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES. GLOBAL OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES AGREE
FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN. MODELS PULL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND LOOK VERY BULLISH WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY
ECMWF) FOR THE EXPECTED PATTERN. NONETHELESS A COOL AIRMASS TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EMPHASIZE LIGHT
IN THE INTENSITY WORDING.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
FAR NORTH/SOUTH THE JET WILL POSITION ITSELF...BUT EITHER WAY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND
THEN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. AJZ
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS HINTING AT A FAST MOVING TROF ON THURSDAY
DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY TO THURSDAY EVENING
TIME FRAME. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM ARE
IN QUESTION AS THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER...WEAKER AND DRIER THEN THE 00Z GFS. THE PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX WITH THIS SYSTEM IF THE GFS IS ACCURATE. ROB
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH A CLEARING SKY TONIGHT TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR AREAS OF FOG. THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. AJZ/RAE
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 071636
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
TODAY...A SURFACE LOW IS OVER HVR WITH TROF DOWN THROUGH LWT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE CONTDVD WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
SOME DECENT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY. A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVELS BUT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND WILL KEEP THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA QUITE MOIST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION IS WEAK BUT DOES
EXIST...AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL BOOST
POPS...AND SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER SW MT AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AS REASONABLE. ZELZER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
WESTERN MT WITH WEAK TROFS AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE ARE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ALOFT. THEY WILL MOVE ALONG THE DIVIDE AND THRU SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY...GENERATING PERIODS OF MIXED LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KHLN AND KBZN. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR TODAY BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY AROUND PRECIPITATION AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROF AND
MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE DIVIDE EARLY SAT
MORNING...SPREADING RAIN/SNOWSHOWERS TOWARD KCTB AND KGTF BY MIDDAY
SAT. WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA
TODAY BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE ITSELF. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT GENERALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO CENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. BY SUNDAY A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO AFFECT MAINLY
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN THOUGH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE PERIOD. EMANUEL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... COOL...CLOUDY...AND WET
PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
NORTHERN ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER WESTERN BOUNDARY OF LONGWAVE TROF
CENTERED IN CENTRAL US/CAN. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THRU MONDAY...SHOWING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF CWA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT PEAKS ABOVE 6000 FT COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES BEFORE THE UPPER TROF MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON TUES.
BRIEF RIDGING ON TUES AFTN WILL GIVE REGION A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP...BUT NEW WAVE OF PAC MOISTURE ARRIVES WED AFTN AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THRU THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DAILY VARIABILITY...AS
EVIDENCED BY NEAR-CONSTANT THICKNESS VALUES FROM MON-WED.
WARANAUSKAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG WAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL AS IT IS
IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLES. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO
WILL GO WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. WILLIAMSON DC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 51 35 52 34 / 20 30 30 30
CTB 49 29 51 29 / 10 20 30 30
HLN 48 32 51 32 / 50 30 20 40
BZN 50 33 55 32 / 50 30 30 40
WEY 36 29 42 28 / 70 40 40 50
DLN 49 32 48 32 / 60 20 40 40
HVR 46 23 45 25 / 20 20 20 30
LWT 47 29 50 30 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 071623
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
INTERESTING MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND WITH A
WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE. ALL THE ABOVE CREATED AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH BILLINGS AND IS
MAINLY IN BIG HORN COUNTY AT THIS TIME...HANGING CLOSE TO THE BIG
HORNS AND PRYOR MOUNTAINS. EARLY MORNING UPDATE CAUGHT THIS WELL
AND HAVE FURTHER TWEAKED A BIT THIS MORNING FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS WHICH IS TO BE FILLING IN A BIG IN EASTERN CARBON COUNTY.
SHOULD BE FAIRLY GOOD DRYING BY EARLY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRYING TREND ALREADY IN PLACE WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS IN
TACT. UPDATES ALREADY SENT TO HWO AND ZFP. RASCH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
EXTENDED LOOKING IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...TRENDING TO MORE MORE
SEASONAL TYPE PATTERN. ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES...PRIMARILY FOR
COLLABORATIVE PURPOSES...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR TIMING CHANGES.
IN A NUTSHELL...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WILL BE THE STORY.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WILL BE WET IN THE WEST AS UPPER LOW IN UTAH
AND SFC DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS COMBINE TO SET UP STRONG
SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW IN EAST AND GOOD NORTH WESTERLIES ALOFT IN THE
WEST CREATING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE IN WEST ZONES...MOST
LIKELY WEST OF BILLINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS EACH RUN SEEMS
TO KEEP IT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID/HIGH SCATTERED POPS WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARING
BACK EAST A BIT MORE. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACCORDING TO GFS WHILE EC HOLDS THE LOW IN WEST...BOTH HOWEVER
SEEM TO FAVOR MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT
FOR MONDAY...BUT PARED THEM BACK TO THE WEST A BIT ON TUESDAY AS
WE GET A SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST. PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...NOTHING POINTS TO A
STRONG OR HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AT THIS POINT BUT LOOKED GOOD ENOUGH
FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TYPE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO TEMPS AS COOL
TEMPS...AROUND CLIMO RANGE...STILL SEEMED TO BE IN LINE WITH WHAT
MODELS WERE SHOWING...AND SAW NOTHING TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE BIG HORNS AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA RANGES TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 034/046 030/042 029/042 027/045 029/043 026/049
2/R 24/R 33/O 43/W 21/B 12/W 23/W
LVM 045 035/049 030/044 027/040 024/043 030/037 027/052
3/R 45/R 35/O 54/W 22/W 23/W 43/W
HDN 050 030/046 027/043 027/044 026/048 025/045 026/049
3/O 24/R 33/O 43/W 21/B 12/W 23/W
MLS 040 023/039 020/036 017/036 021/042 023/043 027/048
2/S 11/B 12/S 33/J 21/B 12/W 22/W
4BQ 039 023/037 022/038 019/036 021/044 023/039 024/048
3/O 11/B 22/S 43/J 22/W 12/W 22/W
BHK 033 018/033 016/031 014/032 019/038 021/038 023/043
1/B 11/B 12/S 22/J 21/B 12/J 22/W
SHR 047 028/047 025/043 024/043 023/045 024/045 023/051
6/O 23/R 23/S 54/W 22/W 22/W 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 071151
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA
TODAY BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE ITSELF. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT GENERALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO CENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. BY SUNDAY A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO AFFECT MAINLY
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN THOUGH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE PERIOD. EMANUEL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... COOL...CLOUDY...AND WET
PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
NORTHERN ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER WESTERN BOUNDARY OF LONGWAVE TROF
CENTERED IN CENTRAL US/CAN. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THRU MONDAY...SHOWING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF CWA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT PEAKS ABOVE 6000 FT COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES BEFORE THE UPPER TROF MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON TUES.
BRIEF RIDGING ON TUES AFTN WILL GIVE REGION A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP...BUT NEW WAVE OF PAC MOISTURE ARRIVES WED AFTN AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THRU THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DAILY VARIABILITY...AS
EVIDENCED BY NEAR-CONSTANT THICKNESS VALUES FROM MON-WED.
WARANAUSKAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG WAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL AS IT IS
IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLES. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO
WILL GO WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. WILLIAMSON DC
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
WESTERN MT WITH WEAK TROFS AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE ARE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ALOFT. THEY WILL MOVE ALONG THE DIVIDE AND THRU SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY...GENERATING PERIODS OF MIXED LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KHLN AND KBZN. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR TODAY BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY AROUND PRECIPITATION AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROF AND
MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE DIVIDE EARLY SAT
MORNING...SPREADING RAIN/SNOWSHOWERS TOWARD KCTB AND KGTF BY MIDDAY
SAT. WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 35 52 34 / 20 30 30 30
CTB 50 29 51 29 / 20 20 30 30
HLN 49 32 51 32 / 30 30 20 40
BZN 50 33 55 32 / 30 30 30 40
WEY 39 29 42 28 / 30 40 40 50
DLN 50 32 48 32 / 20 20 40 40
HVR 50 23 45 25 / 10 20 20 30
LWT 50 29 50 30 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...WARANAUSKAS/WILLIAMSON DC
AVIATION...BRITTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 071114
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
414 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF THE RECENT MOIST PATTERN.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX DOWN TO VALLEY LEVEL. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HINDER PRECIPITATION VERY
MUCH...AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON CENTRAL IDAHO AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO DROP ONCE
MORE...HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. DESPITE
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION... AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE DURING THE SHORT TERM.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UNSETTLED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
WET WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
MAKE THINGS INTERESTING WITH TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...
A STRONG JET ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO TRIGGER RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPS...GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING AT TERMINAL KGPI AND IS
EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER TO ALL RAIN THIS MORNING WHILE OTHER AREA
TERMINALS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW ALONG A RIDGE THAT HAS STAYED FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN
THROUGH THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST
MONTANA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZUMPFE
LONG TERM....DEROSA
AVIATION...DEROSA
000
FXUS65 KTFX 071056
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
356 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA
TODAY BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE ITSELF. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT GENERALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO CENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. BY SUNDAY A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO AFFECT MAINLY
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN THOUGH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE PERIOD. EMANUEL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... COOL...CLOUDY...AND WET
PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
NORTHERN ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER WESTERN BOUNDARY OF LONGWAVE TROF
CENTERED IN CENTRAL US/CAN. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THRU MONDAY...SHOWING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF CWA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT PEAKS ABOVE 6000 FT COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES BEFORE THE UPPER TROF MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON TUES.
BRIEF RIDGING ON TUES AFTN WILL GIVE REGION A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP...BUT NEW WAVE OF PAC MOISTURE ARRIVES WED AFTN AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THRU THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DAILY VARIABILITY...AS
EVIDENCED BY NEAR-CONSTANT THICKNESS VALUES FROM MON-WED.
WARANAUSKAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG WAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL AS IT IS
IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLES. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO
WILL GO WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. WILLIAMSON DC
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST
FLOW INCREASES AT MID-LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
DRYER FARTHER TO THE EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRITTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 35 52 34 / 20 30 30 30
CTB 50 29 51 29 / 20 20 30 30
HLN 49 32 51 32 / 30 30 20 40
BZN 50 33 55 32 / 30 30 30 40
WEY 39 29 42 28 / 30 40 40 50
DLN 50 32 48 32 / 20 20 40 40
HVR 50 23 45 25 / 10 20 20 30
LWT 50 29 50 30 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...WARANAUSKAS/WILLIAMSON DC
AVIATION...BRITTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 071042
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
342 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
PCPN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA. WARM
ADVECTION HAS OCCURRED RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE RAIN...AND
A GLANCE UPSTREAM SHOWS TEMPS ALREADY WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT
KLVM...KLWT AND KGTF. KBIL TEMP OF 33F IS ON THE WAY UP AS WELL.
SO WILL ADD MENTION OF -FZRA 09-12Z IN CENTRAL PARTS...AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PARTS 12-15Z...BUT REALLY THIS SHOULD BE OF SHORT DURATION
AS SFC TEMPS WARM IN THIS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMP PROFILE
ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW IF PCPN DOES
DEVELOP OUT THERE. ANY TRAVELERS OUT THERE BEFORE SUNRISE MUST BE
URGED TO USE CAUTION. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A NOWCAST TO COVER THIS.
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH OF US BY THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF PCPN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE OVER OUR
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUSTAIN
ITSELF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE RAISED POPS AND GIVEN THE
WESTERN SLOPES A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW EACH PERIOD. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS...IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW THIS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. PASSAGE OF SECONDARY CLIPPER NOW IN CENTRAL
ALBERTA WILL ALLOW FOR BACKDOOR FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EAST HALF LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. THIS BOUNDARY COULD THEN BE A
FOCUS OF PCPN INTO SAT...SOMEWHERE IN OUR WEST OR CENTRAL PARTS...
AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW CONTINUES. EAST SHOULD STAY DRY WITH STRONG
INFLUENCE OF SFC RIDGE. PLENTY OF COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND SNOW COVER IN THE DAKOTAS SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN SFC RIDGE
AND PUSH EAST WINDS FURTHER WEST. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THIS SETS UP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POP GOING THRU SAT NIGHT
ACROSS OUR WEST...WITH HIGHER OVER THE MTNS. STRONGER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY LATE SAT NIGHT...SO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
CONTINUING HIGH POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS/CRAZIES THROUGH THEN.
WILL BE A GOOD DURATION OF SNOW FOR OUR MTNS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE BELOW CRITERIA AMOUNTS FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND BECOME OUT OF A GAP DIRECTION AT KLVM
DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN CENTRAL MONTANA AS OF 10Z. WILL
KEEP JUST UNDER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...WITH A DECREASE EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTN WITH PASSAGE OF WAVE.
NO GAP CONCERNS THEREAFTER AS GRADIENT REVERSES ITSELF WITH
BACKDOOR FRONT.
GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL YIELD A WARMER DAY TODAY DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PCPN AROUND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME SUN IN
CENTRAL PARTS AS CLOUDS BREAK FROM THE NORTH BY AFTN. WITH BETTER
MIXING WITH PASSAGE OF WAVE HAVE RAISED EXPECTED HIGHS A
BIT...THOUGH THE FAR EAST WILL STAY IN THE COOL AIR. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COOLING FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND SAT.
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUD AND PERHAPS FOG COME IN WITH THE WIND SHIFT
TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR
SAT... ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
EXTENDED LOOKING IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...TRENDING TO MORE MORE
SEASONAL TYPE PATTERN. ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES...PRIMARILY FOR
COLLABORATIVE PURPOSES...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR TIMING CHANGES.
IN A NUTSHELL...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WILL BE THE STORY.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WILL BE WET IN THE WEST AS UPPER LOW IN UTAH
AND SFC DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS COMBINE TO SET UP STRONG
SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW IN EAST AND GOOD NORTH WESTERLIES ALOFT IN THE
WEST CREATING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE IN WEST ZONES...MOST
LIKELY WEST OF BILLINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS EACH RUN SEEMS
TO KEEP IT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID/HIGH SCATTERED POPS WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARING
BACK EAST A BIT MORE. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACCORDING TO GFS WHILE EC HOLDS THE LOW IN WEST...BOTH HOWEVER
SEEM TO FAVOR MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT
FOR MONDAY...BUT PARED THEM BACK TO THE WEST A BIT ON TUESDAY AS
WE GET A SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST. PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...NOTHING POINTS TO A
STRONG OR HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AT THIS POINT BUT LOOKED GOOD ENOUGH
FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TYPE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO TEMPS AS COOL
TEMPS...AROUND CLIMO RANGE...STILL SEEMED TO BE IN LINE WITH WHAT
MODELS WERE SHOWING...AND SAW NOTHING TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR WEST TO LIFR EAST UNDER LOW CEILINGS.
ADDITIONALLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY PASS THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AS LOW CLOUDS
IN THE EAST LIFT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
IN THE EAST WHILE THE BEARTOOTH FRONT RANGE FROM KLVM TO RED LODGE
WILL CONTINUE SEEING WESTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY WESTERLIES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE
THIS EVENING. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 034/046 030/042 029/042 027/045 029/043 026/049
2/W 24/R 33/O 43/W 21/B 12/W 23/W
LVM 048 035/049 030/044 027/040 024/043 030/037 027/052
4/R 45/R 35/O 54/W 22/W 23/W 43/W
HDN 051 030/046 027/043 027/044 026/048 025/045 026/049
2/S 24/R 33/O 43/W 21/B 12/W 23/W
MLS 042 024/039 020/036 017/036 021/042 023/043 027/048
2/S 11/B 12/S 33/J 21/B 12/W 22/W
4BQ 043 024/037 022/038 019/036 021/044 023/039 024/048
3/S 11/B 22/S 43/J 22/W 12/W 22/W
BHK 035 019/033 016/031 014/032 019/038 021/038 023/043
1/M 11/B 12/S 22/J 21/B 12/J 22/W
SHR 050 028/047 025/043 024/043 023/045 024/045 023/051
2/S 23/R 23/S 54/W 22/W 22/W 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KGGW 071033
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
333 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE AREA THE LAST FEW DAYS
SPINNING MERRILY OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORTWAVE ALREADY
PUSHING SIGNIFICANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THIS WAVE COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA. LEE SURFACE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MOVE IN THIS MORNING BUT WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST EXERTS SOME MUSCLE AND BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
SCOURED OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE...LEAVING
A DECREASING CLOUDS TYPE OF AFTERNOON FOR MOST. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BRING IN SOME
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WHICH WILL CLASH
WITH THE IN PLACE COLD AIR...SETTING UP A BOUNDARY ORIENTED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THRU SUNDAY.
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF IT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THRU THE
WEEKEND. TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE DRIER AND COLDER AIR IT WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH LESS CLOUDINESS. INDICATIONS ARE THE BOUNDARY WILL
FLUCTUATE A BIT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIKELY GET
SHOVED SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SINKS
SOUTHEAST THRU THE GREAT BASIN AND ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CWA TO SINK SOUTHWEST WHICH LETS THE COLD AIR PERVADE FARTHER
SOUTHWEST AND ENCOMPASS MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. THUS A
CHILLY SATURDAY EXPECTED FOR MOST...AND SUNDAY FOR ALL. THE
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN COLDEST AS THE STAY IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. OTHER THAN
SOME BRISK EAST WIND IN AND AROUND THE GLASGOW AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WIND SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MORE TIMID SIDE THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHO SOME SPOTS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
THIS MORNING MAY STILL EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS DUE TO
THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WIND SHOULD ABATE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM CARVING OUT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM TRAVERSES
ABOVE THE CANADIAN TUNDRA ABOUT 60-65N WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES. GLOBAL OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES AGREE
FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN. MODELS PULL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND LOOK VERY BULLISH WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY
ECMWF) FOR THE EXPECTED PATTERN. NONETHELESS A COOL AIRMASS TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EMPHASIZE LIGHT
IN THE INTENSITY WORDING.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
FAR NORTH/SOUTH THE JET WILL POSITION ITSELF...BUT EITHER WAY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND
THEN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. AJZ
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS HINTING AT A FAST MOVING TROF ON THURSDAY
DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY TO THURSDAY EVENING
TIME FRAME. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM ARE
IN QUESTION AS THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER...WEAKER AND DRIER THEN THE 00Z GFS. THE PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX WITH THIS SYSTEM IF THE GFS IS ACCURATE. ROB
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH A CLEARING SKY TONIGHT TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR AREAS OF FOG. THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. AJZ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 070547
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
904 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THOUGH WINDS HAVE WEAKENED A BIT ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS EVENING...STILL EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HAVE INCREASED THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. DB
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST
FLOW INCREASES AT MID-LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
DRYER FARTHER TO THE EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRITTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 36 51 36 49 / 20 20 30 30
CTB 36 50 30 48 / 20 20 20 30
HLN 31 47 32 47 / 20 30 30 20
BZN 29 51 32 53 / 10 30 30 30
WEY 21 37 26 41 / 20 30 30 40
DLN 29 50 32 49 / 20 20 20 40
HVR 26 50 25 46 / 10 10 20 20
LWT 29 50 30 46 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 070430
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
930 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
WINDS WERE HANGING ON OVER THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD BACK OFF
OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENTS WERE DECREASING A BIT. STILL SOME
IMPRESSIVE GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AT BAKER...SO RAISED WINDS IN THE
FORECAST UP A LITTLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR EAST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE ALSO HANGING ON OVER THE EAST. DECREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWING CLEARING LINE ADVANCING
TOWARD EASTERN MONTANA. FOG OVERNIGHT WAS A TOUGH CALL AS WINDS
AND CLOUDS WOULD IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAVE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT OVER THE EAST AS CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS MAY PROVE
ENOUGH FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...BUT DID ADJUST DOWN OVER THE FAR EAST WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES. ALSO LOWERED AT SHERIDAN AS
FORECAST AT EXPECTED LOW ALREADY. WINDS AT LIVINGSTON HAVE
INCREASED THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WERE OUT OF THE WEST.
GRADIENT NOT OVERLY FLAT AT THE MOMENT. MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED
FORECAST...BUT WAS NOT HANDLING THINGS OVERLY WELL ANYWAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT AS STILL SEEING
SOME SURFACE RIDGING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO AND NOT SURE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FLAT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY TYPE OF WINDS.
ALREADY HITTING FORECAST HARD THERE...SO WILL LET THAT RIDE.
UPDATE ALREADY SENT. HUMPHREY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. THE MAIN STORY IS
THAT PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS LOOKING MORE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS IN COOLER...AND UNSETTLED.
INTERESTING PATTERN IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL BE AN UPPER
LOW DIGGING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH
INTO NORTH DAKOTA COMBINED WITH LOW TO THE WEST SETTING UP GOOD
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER EASTERN ZONES. HAVE RAISED WINDS FOR THIS.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO AREA AS WELL AS CREATING
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOME WHERE IN WEST/CENTRAL ZONES...MORE
THAN LIKELY WEST OF BILLINGS NEAR EASTERN SLOPES. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH HIGH POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID/HIGH SCATTERED POPS
WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...DECREASING TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE
DYNAMICS. TIMING LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS
JUMPING AROUND A BIT LATELY WITH LATEST RUNS DELAYING
THINGS...HOWEVER...DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN
WESTERN AREAS SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGES A BIT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY WITH GFS. HOWEVER...ECMWF HOLDS ON TO CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH...SO A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOWING SOME OF THE EC CLOSE OFF AS WELL. LIKE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY. DID COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT IN EASTERN ZONES...BUT
PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD COOL TEMPERATURES IN WHICH LOOK GOOD.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BOTH MODELS SHOWING MORE ENERGY TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN DIFFERING DEGREES OF IT. WOULD NOT BE GOOD IDEA
TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER AS IT LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT AT THIS TIME
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A HIGH IMPACT PATTERN AS WELL...SO ISOLATED TO
LOW SCATTERED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS MAKE SENSE TO ME AND
IS WHAT IS ALREADY IN FORECAST. RASCH
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL RISE TO MVFR OR HIGHER BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 5 TO 10 KTS. CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE VFR WITH
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. IN THE WEST EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED
LODGE ALONG THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS OF 25
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BEARTOOTH FRONT RANGE BY SUNRISE. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/050 034/048 028/042 029/042 027/045 029/043 026/049
02/R 24/R 33/O 31/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
LVM 032/050 035/050 030/044 027/040 024/043 030/037 027/052
24/R 35/R 35/O 52/W 22/W 23/W 32/W
HDN 025/050 030/049 025/043 027/044 026/048 025/045 026/049
02/R 23/R 33/O 31/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 022/041 024/040 019/036 017/036 021/042 023/043 027/048
02/O 12/O 12/S 21/B 22/J 22/W 22/W
4BQ 021/045 025/044 020/038 019/036 021/044 023/039 024/048
03/O 22/O 22/S 21/B 12/W 22/W 22/W
BHK 018/038 020/034 015/031 014/032 019/038 021/038 023/043
11/B 11/B 12/S 11/B 12/J 22/J 22/W
SHR 020/050 029/047 023/043 024/043 023/045 024/045 023/051
02/O 23/R 23/S 32/W 22/W 22/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 070404
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
904 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THOUGH WINDS HAVE WEAKENED A BIT ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS EVENING...STILL EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HAVE INCREASED THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. DB
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1731Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA...HVR-LWT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY.
TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES. WEST FLOW INCREASES AT MID-LEVELS THIS EVENING AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW DURING THE EVENING. THIS
WILL MOISTEN THE AIRMASS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN DRYER FARTHER TO THE EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 36 51 36 49 / 20 20 30 30
CTB 36 50 30 48 / 20 20 20 30
HLN 31 47 32 47 / 20 30 30 20
BZN 29 51 32 53 / 10 30 30 30
WEY 21 37 26 41 / 20 30 30 40
DLN 29 50 32 49 / 20 20 20 40
HVR 26 50 25 46 / 10 10 20 20
LWT 29 50 30 46 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 070353
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
853 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATE TONIGHT TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW THIS EVENING AT SOME LOCATIONS. SOME TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE
TO FORECAST LOWS...WHILE I DO EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO EITHER
HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT...I LOWERED SOME
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SNOW HAS STARTED TO FALL FROM ABOUT MISSOULA
NORTH. THE WARMER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT SNOW
LEVELS TO RISE OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
AVIATION...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE
VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN SNOWFALL AT KGPI AND KMSO. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO WARM AS IS EVIDENT IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
OVER MULLAN PASS SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN. AS
WARM...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUFFICIENTLY THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN...FOG AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE THE DAY
FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT. VERY MOIST PACIFIC AIR AND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY
OROGRAPHIC FLOW OVER THE TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY FROM PIERCE TO
MISSOULA...SEELEY LAKE...AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST MONTANA.
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR HAS BECOME TRAPPED IN NORTHWEST MONTANA
VALLEYS TO SUPPORT A MIX OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WITH POSSIBLE
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE VERY MOIST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BITTERROOT`S...CLEARWATER`S...
MISSIONS AND SWAN RANGE. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE. THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY
WEAKEN SATURDAY BEFORE MORE PACIFIC ENERGY AND MOISTURE ENTERS THE
REGION SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WET EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES AS A
SERIES OF TROUGHS PASS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL BE A LINGERING FACTOR...WITH WINDS PICKING UP BY MID
WEEK AS THE JET STREAM HELPS TO INFLUENCE CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY.
THIS JET MAY OR MAY NOT HELP TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO FALL DURING THIS TIME...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
TIME PASSES.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KOLATA
PREVIOUS DISSCUSION....BAUCK/KITSMILLER/ALLEGRETTO
AVIATION...DICKERSON
000
FXUS65 KGGW 070343
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
843 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT WAVE ARE ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAKE SOME CLOUD COVER ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EVENING UPDATE. REST OF
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. FORRESTER
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
DEEP AND SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SE SD
CAUSING THE PATTERN TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER OUR AREA AS WELL
TODAY. EXTENSIVE LOW OVERCAST OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE IT BREAKING UP IN OUR
WEST THIS EVENING...WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW CLEARING
APPROACHING OUR NE FROM SK TOO. EXPECT IT WILL BE WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT THOUGH BEFORE ENTIRE CWA DOES CLEAR OUT.
AS FOR FOG POSSIBILITIES TONIGHT...MODELS VARY ENOUGH ON THIS...WITH NAM
LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE THAN OTHER MODELS. NAM HAS A LARGE AREA OF
95-100 PCT SURFACE RH AT 12Z OVER MOST OF OUR AREA EXCEPT SW AND
SHOWING SUCH ON SOME MOS LOCATIONS. SUSPECT THIS A LITTLE OVERDONE
AS IT ALSO HAS FOG FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL. EXPECT THAT FOR MUCH OF
OUR E...DESPITE RATHER NARROW TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS...ENOUGH WIND
THRU THE NIGHT TO PREVENT RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION. MODELS AGREE
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR W. THEREFORE EXPECT FOG TO BE JUST PATCHY
AND MAINLY IN THE MILK AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEYS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR W FRI THRU SAT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
MOVING INTO RIDGE IN BC/WA CAUSING RAIN. MODELS INDICATE THIS
WILL SURVIVE MAINLY AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRI AS IT ROUNDS
THE RIDGE THRU NE MT. THERE IS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER MOVING E
ACROSS OUR AREA FRI...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH NOR MOST ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF A PRECIP CHANCE. TWO OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIP SOURCES ARE
INCREASING UPSLOPE IN OUR SW FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT ALSO MOVES SE THRU OUR NE. EMPHASIS ON WHAT LOW
POPS WE HAVE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON LIGHT
AMOUNTS AT BEST AND "LIGHT" WORDING IN FORECAST WHAT FORM ANY
THAT FALLS IS ALSO OPEN TO QUESTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
DEPEND ON LOCATION AND TIME OF DAY...BUT ANY THAT DOES FALL COULD
BE EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW...BOTH...OR MIXED.
SURFACE HIGH OVER N MB GETS BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXTENDS S SAT.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE JUST ON THE EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR...THIS CAUSES A
MODERATE NE-SW TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH WILL ALSO
COMPLICATE PRECIP TYPE POSSIBILITIES...BUT ALSO RESULT IN TEMPS A
LITTLE COOLER THAN POTENTIAL WITH UPPER RIDGING. SIMONSEN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY
IN THE WEEK DUE TO SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW BY THE LATTER STAGES OF
THE WEEK. SPLITTING TROF MOVING THROUGH THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN DRIER WEATHER UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND PUSHED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO MONTANA. EBERT
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS BEGIN
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LARGE WAVE TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NUDGING INTO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA. THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT SEPARATING POLAR AIR IN THE EAST FROM MOIST PACIFIC AIR TO
THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WHERE PRECIPITATION
FALLS. MODELS MAINTAIN THIS BOUNDARY AND BEST SUPPORT EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST IS FELT. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS FROM
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT THAT SPLITS ITS ENERGY AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT PRECISE
THAT FAR OUT THE MODELS AGAIN MOSTLY SPLIT MOST THE ENERGY AROUND
THE AREA SO WILL KEEP SMALL POPS. SCT
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH KGGW IMPROVING
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KSDY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AT OR ABOVE 6K FT. RAE/AJZ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
| 
