000
FXUS61 KCAR 082100
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
400 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)
AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...
AND COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH NEW YORK. THE
PRIMARY RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT...IMPINGING ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING COLUMN OF MOISTURE.
UPPER AIR PTN ALSO BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE ALOFT WITH LEFT EXIT
OF CYCLONIC JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANTI-CYCLONIC JET
JUXTA-POSED OVER MAINE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT WE EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC AND UPR AIR SUPPORT FOR
THE DEVELOPING RAIN...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE THIS EVENING.

QUESTION WHAT TO DO WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. VSBYS SHOULD
BE INITIALLY MODULATED DOWN WITH LOW STRATUS... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND DRIZZLE. HOWEVER SLUG OF RAIN AND MIXING EXPECTED IN THE
COLUMN SHOULD STEADY FOG PATTERN OUT LATER IN THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG AND BEEFED UP
THE HWO.

LITTLE FALL IN TEMPS TNGT IN MILD/MOIST SELY FLOW.

COLD FRONT THEN TO CROSS OUR FA SUNDAY WITH SLUG OF RAIN ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. ON MONDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE
ADVERTISING A RATHER VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT THE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES IN RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO SUNDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY IN ANY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVE GUIDE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGH COMPARED TO MARINE
OBSERVATIONS...BUT WAVES STILL ON THE ORDER OF 5 FEET. WOULD THINK
INCREASING GRADIENT TNGT WOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED SCA WAVE TYPE
ACTION FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...STUREY
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...STUREY
MARINE...STUREY/DUDA

000
FXUS61 KGYX 082016
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY
AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE OFF
TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL LINGER IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS JUST A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS PUSH OUT OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE ANY SUNNY BREAKS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHORT-
LIVED ON SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES ALONG WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF A
SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD H5 CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN PART OF THE U.S. AND CANADA HAS
A SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATING AROUND IT WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FA LATE
SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY. WITH COLD H8 TEMPS EXPECT PRCP TO BE -SHSN
OR A MIX OF -RASN. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE MTS ON
MONDAY.

THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NE LATE MONDAY AS A W
SFC FLOW SETS UP. THIS SHOULD LWR THE CHC OF PRCP FOR DOWNSLOPE
AREAS BUT KEEP AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN OVER THE MT ZONES. THIS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX PATTERN CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY FOR THE MT
ZONES FROM GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPING SFC WINDS
CREATING CLOUDS AND A SLGT CHC OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. GRADUALLY HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY A BROAD H5 TROF SETS UP TO OUR W BRINGING AN
INTENSIFYING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE E
COAST. CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE FA THURSDAY WITH PRCP ARRIVING
THURSDAY NGT. AS WARMER AIR PUSHES IN THE PRCP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN THOUGH OUR MOST NE ZONES COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AS SOME COLD AIR HANGS ON FROM THE DEPARTING COLD SFC HIGH
PRES SYSTEM. THE WARM UP AND PRCP CONTINUES FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY.
GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR SUNDAY NGT THRU MONDAY NGT
THEN GMOS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM....MVFR/IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. BECOMING VFR WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN UPR LVL TROF WILL
BRING SOME -SHSN OR MIXED -SHRA AND -SHSN LATE SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY WITH MVFR THE MOST LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA FOR SEAS INTO THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A W SW FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NGT. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SUNSET. OTRW CONDITIONS
RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 080921
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
421 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A STEADY RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. MORNING RAIN WILL TAPER
TO SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
STATE ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN CROSSING
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATING SHOWERS TO REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT RH PROGS
INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG OMEGA SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE STATE BY LATE
MONDAY USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND
OF NAM...GFS...SREF AND HPC FOR QPF.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED GMOS FOR THE EXTENDED. UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS INDICATES
MAINLY CLOUDY WEATHER WITH ANY SHOWERS LIMITED TO NORTHWEST
SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS...SHOWERS...RAIN AND FOG. SHOWERS
TODAY...WILL BECOME A STEADY RAIN TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS...RAIN AND FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR WINDS. WNAWAVE SEAS
APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH CONSIDERING ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED SO LOWERED SEAS
A FOOT OR TWO BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...NORCROSS
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOSTER

000
FXUS61 KGYX 080856
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
356 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND CROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY...RIDGING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR TODAY INCLUDE FOG AND DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...AND TIMING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A MOIST MARINE LAYER
AHEAD OF A PSEUDO WARM FRONT TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. LOWER CLOUDS
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAVE CUT OFF THE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO THE
WEST (ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE). THE
FOG AND DRIZZLE HAS BECOME A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING AS
SOME OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH MOVE NORTH.

TO THE WEST...CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO DRIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NEW YORK STATES SOUTH THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. 0000 UTC
SOUNDINGS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND OHIO SHOWED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE INVERSION IN PLACE...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED
YET.

THE FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DISSIPATE ABOUT THAT SAME TIME AS
FRIDAY MORNING (IF NOT A BIT FASTER...BASED ON WHAT IS GOING ON TO
THE WEST). THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS
THE FOG EXITS AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE. HOWEVER...
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD STILL COVER. HIGHS WERE BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED FRIDAY...AND THIS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MOS BLEND.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A TAF BETTER WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ITS
TIMING WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE OPENING SYSTEM IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE ONSET TIMING OF THE SHOWERS WAS SLOWED A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PEAKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 0300
UTC AND 0900 UTC SUNDAY. BASED ON THE TIMING...THE SHOWERS MAY TAPER
OFF LATE AT NIGHT ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...CLOSE TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS CARRY THIS EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREAS TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION WOULD HAVE TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND FOR NOW WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TEXT FORECAST.

WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE MOS BLEND.

THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE 0000 UTC
NAM SEEMS A BIT TOO SLOW...EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. LEFT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING...AND THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

THE MODIFIED DOWNSLOPE SHOULD HELP FAVORED AREAS BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE SKY FORECAST WAS MORE
PESSIMISTIC. HIGHS WERE BASED ON A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MAX
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY MONDAY. GFS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE NAM...WITH A PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE MORNING...AND LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
BELOW 15000 FT...WITH EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED CAPES AS THE VORT
MAX PASSES. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT...FEEL THIS SUPPORTS LIKELY
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS...A TAD ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. POPS DROP OFF
SOUTH...DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON OUR SOUTHERN BORDER...AS THESE
AREAS ARE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR SNOW. EXPECT PRECIPITATION MAY START AS RAIN IN SHOWERS...BUT
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
GIVEN CAPES...COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...OR GRAUPEL.
FOR TEMPERATURES...USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 925 MB WINDS
AROUND 20 KTS...AND RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE THE WESTERLY DIRECTION OF THE WIND...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL DUE TO
THE BARRIER ORIENTATION. CARRY CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOR
UPSLOPING. HEDGED WARMER THAN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NOW GFS/EUROPEAN/GEM ALL HAVE
THIS GENERAL PATTERN. DESPITE THE HIGH AT THE SURFACE...THERE ARE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL 500 MB FLOW. SHORTWAVES MAY SPARK
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT SOME POINT FROM TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY...HOWEVER NO CONFIDENCE IN MODELS PLACEMENT OF SUBTLE
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. PREFER TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LOWER...UNTIL MODELS KEY IN ON A FEATURE...SINCE IT IS A GENERALLY
DRY PATTERN. USE MOS FOR HIGHS...BUT GIVEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE MODEL AGREEMENT
ON WARMING 850 TEMPS...HEDGE ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT EVENT APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS CANNOT
SETTLE ON WHETHER TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PHASE OR NOT.
FOR NOW...AM CONFIDENT IN A GENERALLY BAROCLINIC 500 MB PATTERN
FOR FRIDAY...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIMEFRAME...AND NUDGE A TAD WARMER THAN MOS
WHICH SEEMS ONT HE COLD SIDE GIVEN EUROPEAN/GFS/GEM CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM (TODAY)...THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES HAS BEEN
BOUNCING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY ALLOW THE FOG TO
DISPERSE. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR IS
LOW...CONTINUED TO IFR/LIFR FORECAST THROUGH 1400 UTC. AFTER
THIS...ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE A 3 OR 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY WITH VISIBILITY).

IN THE SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...THE SHOWERS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 2000 UTC SATURDAY AND 0200 UTC SUNDAY. DURING THE
SHOWERS...EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

IN THE LONG TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...BRIEFLY LOWERING VSBY TO IFR OR LOWER IN SPOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM (TODAY)...WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST...JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE A BIT AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS
TODAY.

THE SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO BE ON OF TWO MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS ON THE WATERS TODAY. THE SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES...AND THE
WNAWAVE MODEL IS RUNNING A BIT ON THIS. SINCE THE SWELL TRAINS
EXTENDS OUT AS FAR AS BUOY OBSERVATIONS CAN SEE...WILL ONCE AGAIN
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO A PROBLEM THIS MORNING. GOMOOS BUOYS ARE SHOWING
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES AT ONE-HALF NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WOULD EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
IMPROVEMENT.

IN THE SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...THE GRADIENT SLOWLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS SHOULD
OCCUR AT THE C MAN STATIONS (WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THE SETUP).

SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY
LOW. FOR THIS REASON...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS CAN BE REEVALUATED BY THE DAY CREW. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD GET BETTER AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...AS WINDS START TO TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. EXPECT MOS IS A BIT LOW ON
THIS...GIVEN GOOD MIXING IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...APFFEL

000
FXUS61 KGYX 080120
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
820 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY TO FRIDAY...STARTING WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE AND THEN
JUST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO IF
WE WERE TO GET ANY SUN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WELL IN THE 60S WITH
SOME 70S. BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL INSTEAD KEEP READINGS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

THE FRONT SLOWLY PULLS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A FEW SUNNY BREAKS IN THE
AFTERNOON DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
IN THE MORNING AND THEN BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BROAD UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH IN THE NORTH AS WELL AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY LOOKING MUCH THE SAME WAY AT THIS POINT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE SOUTH AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY STILL FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION BUT MODELS NOW BRINGING IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

AT THIS POINT MODEL CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN AND WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXPECT A LOT MORE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CEILINGS WILL FILL IN AND BECOME LIFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...LOOK FOR IFR CEILINGS
AND IMPROVING VISIBILITY. MOUNTAIN AND WESTERN SECTIONS COULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHEAST SWELL IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING...BUT
REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT. EXPECT SEAS
TO FINALLY DROP BELOW 5 FT ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 072020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
320 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOUDY AND COOL START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BRINING
ANOTHER BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY. A COOL SPELL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY TOMORROW MORNING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
US WILL BEGIN TO TREK EASTWARD. MAINE BEGINS THE MORNING IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. A SECONDARY LOW THEN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM. A THIS POINT THE COLD
FRONT ROTATES AND MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

THE TRICK PART OF THE FORECAST IS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. AS STATED
EARLIER...MAINE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH AT LEAST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. BY SHOWERS...I MEAN
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE OTHER ISSUES IS THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
DAYTIME SUN WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUNCHING THROUGH THIS LOWER
CLOUD COVER. ADDITIONALLY...DRIZZLE CAN OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY. IN SHORT...IT WILL BE MORE LIKE ENGLAND WEATHER TOMORROW
RATHER THEN NEW ENGLAND WEATHER.

CLEARLY THE BEST FORCING...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. POPS WILL BE
CATEGORICAL. TIMING HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE FRONT EXISTS ON SUNDAY
AND ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GMOS USED AS A STARTING POINT. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A
COOLER PATTERN THAN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IS
MOVING IN TOWARD THE LATE PART WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN VFR AFTER THAT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM...NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...LERICOS
LONG TERM...LERICOS
AVIATION...DUDA
MARINE...DUDA/LERICOS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 071959
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY TO FRIDAY...STARTING WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE AND THEN
JUST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO IF
WE WERE TO GET ANY SUN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WELL IN THE 60S WITH
SOME 70S. BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL INSTEAD KEEP READINGS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

THE FRONT SLOWLY PULLS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A FEW SUNNY BREAKS IN THE
AFTERNOON DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
IN THE MORNING AND THEN BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BROAD UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH IN THE NORTH AS WELL AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY LOOKING MUCH THE SAME WAY AT THIS POINT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE SOUTH AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY STILL FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION BUT MODELS NOW BRINGING IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

AT THIS POINT MODEL CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN AND WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXPECT A LOT MORE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CEILINGS WILL FILL IN AND BECOME LIFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...LOOK FOR IFR CEILINGS
AND IMPROVING VISIBILITY. MOUNTAIN AND WESTERN SECTIONS COULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHEAST SWELL IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING...BUT
REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT. EXPECT SEAS
TO FINALLY DROP BELOW 5 FT ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 070934
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
434 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROF
EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
UPPER TROF WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE SURFACE/UPPER TROFS AND A GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE AREA OF RAIN WILL
GENERALLY MOVE NORTH TODAY...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EARLY RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO
THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST. THE SURFACE/UPPER
TROFS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL
SUPPORT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER
40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
CONSISTENT WITH WARM FRONT REMAINING STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL CREST THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT LIMITING RAINFALL. BUT WITH WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGS SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY PUSHING OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. DEEP
MOISTURE WITH NEGATIVELY TITLED TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL
RAINFALL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASICALLY USED THE GMOS FOR THE EXTENDED. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR DOWNEAST AS DOWNGLIDE CREATES DRYING CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. GMOS INDICATES NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION
THURSDAY...HOWEVER ECMWF KEEPS HIGH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A LARGE DISCREPANCY AND SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIFR...DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SHOWERS...FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY IN A SOUTH
SWELL. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND FOG TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SOUTHERLY SWELL STILL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR SATURDAY
SO WILL EXTEND SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO MID WEEK. USED A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM12 FOR WINDS AND THE WNAWAVE FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...NORCROSS
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOSTER

000
FXUS61 KGYX 070847
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL LIFT INTO THE MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH AND THE STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

AS THE SOUTHERN CLOSED SYSTEM OPENS UP AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH...THE
BEST LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. THE
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS THE BEST BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
EXTENDING EAST INTO NORTHEAST AND EASTERN MAINE. THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS LIFT.

AFTER THIS...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE AHEAD OF A PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THE FLOW WILL SATURATE AN ALREADY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...AFTER THE THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
SHOWERS EXIT...DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEATHER TYPES.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S...
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE TODAY.
HIGHS WERE BASED ON THE COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AND EASTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
FOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT. INSERTED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR ALL
AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD NOT DROP THAT MUCH TONIGHT...AND THESE
VALUES WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MOS BLEND.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED WITH THE APPROACH OF OPENING MID LEVEL SYSTEM
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. BASED ON THIS...IT WOULD SEEM
AS THOUGH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE DELAYED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
PUSHED BACK A TAD FOR MOST AREAS.

HOWEVER...FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO SUN SATURDAY...HIGHS WERE BASED AGAIN ON THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS/GEM FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND
DEVELOPING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. DYNAMICS
ARE WEAK WITH THIS...HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THIS...GO WITH 80 POPS IN MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE HIGH POPS...EXPECT QPFS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH IN MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE...GO ABOVE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND
FOR LOWS. FEEL MOS MAY BE EXPECTING SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LIGHT WINDS...HOWEVER FULL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH AT ALL.

SYSTEM MOVES EAST SUNDAY...THOUGH COULD SEE SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LINGER
EAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. GEM A BIT LIGHTER ON QPFS THEN
NAM/GFS...SO HEDGE A TAD ON THE LOW SIDE FOR POPS. FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LINGERING POPS DUE TO
UPSLOPING FEATURES...THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN LIGHT
FLOW AND LESS THAN IDEAL WESTERLY FLOW. WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING...EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

BOTH GFS/EUROPEAN BRING A 500 MB LOW TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH
A VORT MAX CROSSING DURING THE DAY. FEEL THIS SUPPORTS CHANCE
POPS...HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTH...WHICH FALLS IN LINE WITH MOS. P-TYPE MARGINAL...BUT SHOULD
LARGELY BE RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEYOND...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE 00Z GEM/GFS/EUROPEAN
ALL PARTING WAYS. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER
TUESDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOVES THE
HIGH EAST FASTER...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GEM/EUROPEAN KEEP THE HIGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN THE GEM BRINGS A SYSTEM UP LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN KEEPS IT SOUTH...AND THE GFS IS
FASTER AND SOUTH. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...NUDGE BACK GFS TIMING
TOWARDS CONSENSUS...AND MAINTAIN CONSISTENT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRIDAY. RAISE GFS MOS LOWS...GIVEN COOL BIAS AND POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE ONSHORE FLOW IS SATURATING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL TERMINALS ARE IFR/LIFR EXCEPT KCON
AND KLEB. WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THESE LOCATIONS...THEY SHOULD
DROP TO IFR THIS MORNING AS WELL.

WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE BEST
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 1600 UTC...AND KCON
AND KLEB MAY REACH MVFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...COOLING THIS EVENING WILL INTENSIFY
THE MARINE LAYER. ALL TERMINAL SHOULD DROP TO LIFR THIS EVENING...AND
REMAIN THERE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER 1400 UTC SATURDAY...KCON
AND KLEB MAY RISE TO MVFR IN THE LATER MORNING OR EARLY AFTER
AHEAD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE...IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF SATURDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT...LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
SUN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DELMARVA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES IS PRODUCING NEAR
SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX TODAY...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BACK OFF IN
ALL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN UP IN THE SOUTHEAST SWELL...WITH AN 11
SECOND PERIOD. THE SWELL HAS A LARGE FETCH TO COVER...AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE THROUGH TODAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS TONIGHT
MAY PRODUCE BACKING WINDS...AND WINDS MAY EVEN GO TO NORTHEAST
FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ANY
EVENT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE SWELL WILL BE
SLOW TO DISSIPATE...AND SEAS COULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

IN THE LONG TERM...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA SUNDAY NIGHT IN A SW FLOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...APFFEL