[top]
000
FXUS61 KBOX 082306
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
606 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW
ENGLAND TUES-WED. LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING
SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
605 PM: PWATS PLUS 1 SD THIS EVENING. AXIS OF PWATS RUC13 RH AXIS AND
ORGANIZED LINE OF MDT TO HEAVY SHOWERS S OF OKX ATTM SUGGESTS TO ME
THE GFS IS ONTO WHAT IS UNFOLDING. LOOKING FOR THUNDER TO DEVELOP BTWN
MTP AND BID 7PM-8PM.
540 PM: BASED ON NEW 18Z GFS PARAMETERS...5PM PRES FALL AXIS IN CT
RVR VALLEY....5PM SFC LOWS HUD VALLEY TO NJ AND DECENT SMC...PLUS
PROJECTED 35KT SSW 850 JET... KI 35...TT 53 AND SWI -1 AT MONTAUK AT
7PM... HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH AN ATTEMPT AT MORE DEFINED NEAR TERM
GRIDS.
BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS REORGANIZED CT RVR VALLEY TO S OF
FRG.
PRIMARY BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY SHOWERS THRU 630 PM SHUD BE CT RVR VALLEY
INTO ORH COUNTY AND MONADNOCKS.
BETWEEN 630 PM AND 10 PM. ACTION ORGANIZES BOS-PVD EWD. AMTS THIS
REGION MAY REACH .75 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT.
THUNDER: GFS CONTS BULLISH ON THUNDER DEVELOPING S OF RI BY 630 PM
AND SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE E MA CW BY 11 PM. MONITORING FOR DEVELOPMENT.
LOW PROB WE WILL NEED A STMT ON SMALL HAIL OR SMW WIND G35 KTS.
WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEN ON OUR OBSERVATIONS WAS AROUND
19Z...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IT LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE GFS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST
AND DROPS THE DEWPOINTS. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...LOW TEMPS WILL END UP AROUND 50 DEGREES...VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP. IN SPITE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. STILL...THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.
TEMPS: FCST DIFF FROM CLIMO SHOWS ABV NORMAL SUNDAY THEN AOB NORMAL
MON-THU THEN MINS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT FRI.
MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR CWA....THEN
AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.
I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.
FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...SINCE
LATER INFORMATION DID NOT LEND MUCH SUPPORT TO THE LIGHT ICE/SNOW IDEA...
HAVE DEFERRED TO A DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND RAN A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST. PLS NOTE HOWEVER...THAT THE 12Z/8 GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT WAVE INTENSITY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...GENERAL CONTINUITY OF THE 4AM
KBOX POP FCST...HAVING LOWERED POPS WED. ALSO FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE A WET PERIOD. EVERY MODEL AND THE 12Z GFS ENS
ARE ADVERTISING LIKELY OR HIGHER RISK OF QPF. LEFTOVER BL CHILL MIGHT
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE TOUCH OF ICE NW HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW PROBABILITY
RISK ATTM.
WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN
THE PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS
FIELDS.
THE DAILIES BELOW
SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.
MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.
TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.
WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAYS. WAA PCPN MAY BEGIN LATE THU?
FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. A PRECIPITATION EVENT IS A
STRONG LIKELIHOOD FRI OR FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE VSBYS ARE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEING THE
EXCEPTION - LIFR/...EXPECT THESE WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
FIRST IN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN IN FOG AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.
ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL RI AND EMASS BETWEEN 630 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.
MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. OVER THE WESTERN MOST WATERS WINDS COULD SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL
INCREASE A BIT /5-7 FT/ AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/RLG 606
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 082239
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
539 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW
ENGLAND TUES-WED. LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING
SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
540 PM: BASED ON NEW 18Z GFS PARAMETERS...5PM PRES FALL AXIS IN CT
RVR VALLEY....5PM SFC LOWS HUD VALLEY TO NJ AND DECENT SMC...PLUS
PROJECTED 35KT SSW 850 JET... KI 35...TT 53 AND SWI -1 AT MONTAUK AT
7PM... HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH AN ATTEMPT AT MORE DEFINED NEAR TERM
GRIDS.
BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS REORGANIZED CT RVR VALLEY TO S OF
FRG.
PRIMARY BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY SHOWERS THRU 630 PM SHUD BE CT RVR VALLEY
INTO ORH COUNTY AND MONADNOCKS.
BETWEEN 630 PM AND 10 PM. ACTION ORGANIZES BOS-PVD EWD. AMTS THIS
REGION MAY REACH .75 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT.
THUNDER: GFS CONTS BULLISH ON THUNDER DEVELOPING S OF RI BY 630 PM
AND SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE E MA CW BY 11 PM. MONITORING FOR DEVELOPMENT.
LOW PROB WE WILL NEED A STMT ON SMALL HAIL OR SMW WIND G35 KTS.
WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEN ON OUR OBSERVATIONS WAS AROUND
19Z...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IT LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE GFS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST
AND DROPS THE DEWPOINTS. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...LOW TEMPS WILL END UP AROUND 50 DEGREES...VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP. IN SPITE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. STILL...THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.
TEMPS: FCST DIFF FROM CLIMO SHOWS ABV NORMAL SUNDAY THEN AOB NORMAL
MON-THU THEN MINS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT FRI.
MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR CWA....THEN
AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.
I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.
FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...SINCE
LATER INFORMATION DID NOT LEND MUCH SUPPORT TO THE LIGHT ICE/SNOW IDEA...
HAVE DEFERRED TO A DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND RAN A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST. PLS NOTE HOWEVER...THAT THE 12Z/8 GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT WAVE INTENSITY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...GENERAL CONTINUITY OF THE 4AM
KBOX POP FCST...HAVING LOWERED POPS WED. ALSO FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE A WET PERIOD. EVERY MODEL AND THE 12Z GFS ENS
ARE ADVERTISING LIKELY OR HIGHER RISK OF QPF. LEFTOVER BL CHILL MIGHT
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE TOUCH OF ICE NW HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW PROBABILITY
RISK ATTM.
WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN
THE PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS
FIELDS.
THE DAILIES BELOW
SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.
MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.
TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.
WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAYS. WAA PCPN MAY BEGIN LATE THU?
FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. A PRECIPITATION EVENT IS A
STRONG LIKELIHOOD FRI OR FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE VSBYS ARE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEING THE
EXCEPTION - LIFR/...EXPECT THESE WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
FIRST IN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN IN FOG AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.
ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL RI AND EMASS BETWEEN 630 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.
MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. OVER THE WESTERN MOST WATERS WINDS COULD SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL
INCREASE A BIT /5-7 FT/ AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/RLG 539
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 082155
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
455 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW
ENGLAND TUES-WED. LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING
SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
415 PM: ADDED DENSE FOG PATCHES TO THE GRIDS FROM BID/WST EWD TO CHH-
ACK. FCST PRODUCTS UPDATED.
AT 4PM...PRES FALLS HAVE RECENTERED TO VCNTY NYC WITH SFC LOW IN THE
HUD VALLEY. BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS REORGANIZING WESTWARD
NOW TO TO CT RVR VALLEY TO S OF FRG. LEAD BAND OF SHOWERS AT 445PM
JUST ENTERING W RI.
PRIMARY BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY SHOWERS THRU 630 PM SHUD BE CT RVR VALLEY
INTO ORH COUNTY AND MONADNOCKS.
BETWEEN 630 PM AND 10 PM. ACTION ORGANIZES BOS-PVD EWD. AMTS THIS
REGION MAY REACH .75 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT.
THUNDER: GFS CONTS BULLISH ON THUNDER DEVELOPING S OF RI BY 630 PM
AND SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE E MA CW BY 11 PM. MONITORING FOR DEVELOPMENT.
LOW PROB WE WILL NEED A STMT ON SMALL HAIL OR SMW WIND G35 KTS.
WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEN ON OUR OBSERVATIONS WAS AROUND
19Z...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IT LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE GFS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
HAD A LITTLE BIT OF THINNING OF THE CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WAS ENOUGH TO AFFECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH. LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WILL END THE
DAY WITH A HIGH AROUND 60...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED BACK UP AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST
AND DROPS THE DEWPOINTS. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...LOW TEMPS WILL END UP AROUND 50 DEGREES...VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP. IN SPITE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. STILL...THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.
TEMPS: FCST DIFF FROM CLIMO SHOWS ABV NORMAL SUNDAY THEN AOB NORMAL
MON-THU THEN MINS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT FRI.
MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR CWA....THEN
AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.
I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.
FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...SINCE
LATER INFORMATION DID NOT LEND MUCH SUPPORT TO THE LIGHT ICE/SNOW IDEA...
HAVE DEFERRED TO A DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND RAN A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST. PLS NOTE HOWEVER...THAT THE 12Z/8 GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT WAVE INTENSITY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...GENERAL CONTINUITY OF THE 4AM
KBOX POP FCST...HAVING LOWERED POPS WED. ALSO FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE A WET PERIOD. EVERY MODEL AND THE 12Z GFS ENS
ARE ADVERTISING LIKELY OR HIGHER RISK OF QPF. LEFTOVER BL CHILL MIGHT
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE TOUCH OF ICE NW HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW PROBABILITY
RISK ATTM.
WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN
THE PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS
FIELDS.
THE DAILIES BELOW
SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.
MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.
TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.
WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAYS. WAA PCPN MAY BEGIN LATE THU?
FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. A PRECIPITATION EVENT IS A
STRONG LIKELIHOOD FRI OR FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE VSBYS ARE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEING THE
EXCEPTION - LIFR/...EXPECT THESE WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
FIRST IN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN IN FOG AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.
ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL RI AND EMASS BETWEEN 630 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.
MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. OVER THE WESTERN MOST WATERS WINDS COULD SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL
INCREASE A BIT /5-7 FT/ AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG
NEAR TERM...RLG 454
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG 454
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 082131
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW
ENGLAND TUES-WED. LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING
SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
415 PM: ADDED DENSE FOG PATCHES TO THE GRIDS FROM BID/WST EWD TO CHH-
ACK. FCST UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
SHOWERS EXTEND FROM MANCHESTER NH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. THESE ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH AT
20Z WAS RUNNING FROM JUST EAST OF SARANAC LAKE NY DUE SOUTH TO JUST
WEST OF ALBANY AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEN ON OUR OBSERVATIONS WAS AROUND
19Z...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IT LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE GFS. THIS PUTS THUNDER IN
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AROUND 23Z WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDER MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN.
HAD A LITTLE BIT OF THINNING OF THE CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WAS ENOUGH TO AFFECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH. LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WILL END THE
DAY WITH A HIGH AROUND 60...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED BACK UP AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST
AND DROPS THE DEWPOINTS. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...LOW TEMPS WILL END UP AROUND 50 DEGREES...VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP. IN SPITE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. STILL...THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.
MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR CWA....THEN
AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.
I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.
FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...SINCE
LATER INFORMATION DID NOT LEND MUCH SUPPORT TO THE LIGHT ICE/SNOW IDEA...
HAVE DEFERRED TO A DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND RAN A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST. PLS NOTE HOWEVER...THAT THE 12Z/8 GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT WAVE INTENSITY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...GENERAL CONTINUITY OF THE 4AM
KBOX POP FCST...HAVING LOWERED POPS WED. ALSO FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE A WET PERIOD. EVERY MODEL AND THE 12Z GFS ENS
ARE ADVERTISING LIKELY OR HIGHER RISK OF QPF. LEFTOVER BL CHILL MIGHT
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE TOUCH OF ICE NW HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW PROBABILITY
RISK ATTM.
WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN
THE PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS
FIELDS.
THE DAILIES BELOW
SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.
MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.
TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.
WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAYS. WAA PCPN MAY BEGIN LATE THU?
FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. A PRECIPITATION EVENT IS A
STRONG LIKELIHOOD FRI OR FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE VSBYS ARE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEING THE
EXCEPTION - LIFR/...EXPECT THESE WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
FIRST IN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN IN FOG AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.
MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. OVER THE WESTERN MOST WATERS WINDS COULD SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL
INCREASE A BIT /5-7 FT/ AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG
NEAR TERM...RLG 430
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG 430
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 082110
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUES-WED.
LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS EXTEND FROM MANCHESTER NH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. THESE ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH AT 20Z WAS RUNNING FROM JUST EAST OF SARANAC LAKE NY DUE SOUTH
TO JUST WEST OF ALBANY AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEN ON OUR OBSERVATIONS WAS AROUND
19Z...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IT LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE GFS. THIS PUTS THUNDER IN
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AROUND 23Z WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDER MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN.
HAD A LITTLE BIT OF THINNING OF THE CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WAS ENOUGH TO AFFECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH. LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WILL END THE
DAY WITH A HIGH AROUND 60...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED BACK UP AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST
AND DROPS THE DEWPOINTS. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...LOW TEMPS WILL END UP AROUND 50 DEGREES...VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP. IN SPITE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. STILL...THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRAFT NEW AFTERNOON LONG TERM FCST. IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF
CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.
MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR
CWA....THEN AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.
I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.
FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...UNLESS
OTHER INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WILL NOT
FIGHT THIS DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND AM GOING TO RUN A GENERALLY
DRY FORECAST.
FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...THIS MEANS KEEPING GENERAL CONTINUITY
OF THE 4AM KBOX POP FCST...MAYBE DRYING OUT WED? ALSO FRIDAY CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE A DAY THAT SHOULD BECOME WET. MAY RAISE POPS 10 PCT TO "LIKELY"
IN THE 4PM ISSUANCE DEPENDENT ON 12Z GFS ENS POPS AND THE UK/EC. ALREADY
THE 12Z GGEM IS COOL AND BECOMING WET AND OP GFS IS WET...CONTINUITY
FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS.
WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN THE
PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS FIELDS.
THE DAILIES BELOW
SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.
MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.
TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.
WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAY. STILL UNDECIDED HOW TO PLAY THE CURRENT POPS.
FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE VSBYS ARE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEING THE
EXCEPTION - LIFR/...EXPECT THESE WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
FIRST IN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN IN FOG AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.
MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. OVER THE WESTERN MOST WATERS WINDS COULD SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL
INCREASE A BIT /5-7 FT/ AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB/DRAG
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/RLG
[top]
000
FXUS61 KGYX 082016
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY
AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE OFF
TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL LINGER IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS JUST A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS PUSH OUT OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE ANY SUNNY BREAKS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHORT-
LIVED ON SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES ALONG WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF A
SHOWER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD H5 CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN PART OF THE U.S. AND CANADA HAS
A SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATING AROUND IT WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FA LATE
SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY. WITH COLD H8 TEMPS EXPECT PRCP TO BE -SHSN
OR A MIX OF -RASN. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE MTS ON
MONDAY.
THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NE LATE MONDAY AS A W
SFC FLOW SETS UP. THIS SHOULD LWR THE CHC OF PRCP FOR DOWNSLOPE
AREAS BUT KEEP AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN OVER THE MT ZONES. THIS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX PATTERN CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY FOR THE MT
ZONES FROM GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPING SFC WINDS
CREATING CLOUDS AND A SLGT CHC OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. GRADUALLY HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY A BROAD H5 TROF SETS UP TO OUR W BRINGING AN
INTENSIFYING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE E
COAST. CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE FA THURSDAY WITH PRCP ARRIVING
THURSDAY NGT. AS WARMER AIR PUSHES IN THE PRCP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN THOUGH OUR MOST NE ZONES COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AS SOME COLD AIR HANGS ON FROM THE DEPARTING COLD SFC HIGH
PRES SYSTEM. THE WARM UP AND PRCP CONTINUES FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY.
GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR SUNDAY NGT THRU MONDAY NGT
THEN GMOS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM....MVFR/IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. BECOMING VFR WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN UPR LVL TROF WILL
BRING SOME -SHSN OR MIXED -SHRA AND -SHSN LATE SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY WITH MVFR THE MOST LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA FOR SEAS INTO THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A W SW FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NGT. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SUNSET. OTRW CONDITIONS
RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KBOX 081806
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
106 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUN NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRES WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUES-WED.
LOW PRES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE HELPING TO MIX THE AIR A BIT...SO NOTING
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...THOUGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. STILL HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER
SE MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS S
WINDS FRESHEN A BIT. CAN SEE THE FRONT QUITE CLEARLY ON THE NE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AT 15Z... APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE STRETCHES
FROM AROUND SARANAC LAKE NY...UTICA NY...DOWN INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN MOVE STEADILY EAST BY EVENING. AFTER LOOKING AT
SHOWATER...K...AND LIFTED INDICES AND TOTAL TOTALS...AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS FURTHER UPSTREAM...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS WILL BE THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE LOWER
60S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...THOUGH. IF
THE SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH...MIGHT BE EVEN MILDER AT SOME SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH TIMING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAINLY N OF THE
MASS PIKE. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1/4-1/2 INCH AT A FEW PLACES.
HAVE CARRIED LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DID TAKE A LOOK TO SEE ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PARAMETERS ARE CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AROUND 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO USED
A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS.
HAVE TEMPS FALLING TO THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AROUND THIS LOW AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -3C TO -4C BY 00Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO START TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE
COOLER AIR WORKS IN.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SUN WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH EAST.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60...BUT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRAFT NEW AFTERNOON LONG TERM FCST. IN A NUTSHELL...LOTS OF
CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM PACKAGE.
MULTIPLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-WED WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD SURGE EARLY MON POSSIBLY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS CROSSING THE GREENS AND BERKS INTO THE W HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR
CWA....THEN AOB NORMAL TEMPS MON-THU WITH DRY WEATHER.
I LIKE THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF WEAK BLOCKING IN CANADA....TRYING TO
MAKE IT ACTIVE HERE IN THE USA.
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF AN ON/OFF ADVERTISED POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE/SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY IS ON THE WANE FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT
HAPPEN.
FOR NOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM CONFIGURATION DOES NOT BACK THE 500MB
FLOW AS MUCH AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND 2 DAYS BEFORE THAT...SO...UNLESS
OTHER INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WILL NOT
FIGHT THIS DRY COOL TREND FOR TUE/WED AND AM GOING TO RUN A GENERALLY
DRY FORECAST.
FOR THE ENTIRE 01Z MON-DAY 8 PERIOD...THIS MEANS KEEPING GENERAL CONTINUITY
OF THE 4AM KBOX POP FCST...MAYBE DRYING OUT WED? ALSO FRIDAY CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE A DAY THAT SHOULD BECOME WET. MAY RAISE POPS 10 PCT TO "LIKELY"
IN THE 4PM ISSUANCE DEPENDENT ON 12Z GFS ENS POPS AND THE UK/EC. ALREADY
THE 12Z GGEM IS COOL AND BECOMING WET AND OP GFS IS WET...CONTINUITY
FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS.
WINDS IN THE FCST BOTH SFC SUSTAINED AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FWX IN THE
PERIOD 01Z MON-84 HRS ARE 50/50 NAM/GFS DUE TO THEIR SIMILAR MASS FIELDS.
THE DAILIES BELOW
SUN NIGHT...POPS NW PART OF MA AND SW NH FOR SCT LATE NIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ASSTD WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CFP.
MON...GUSTY WLY COLDER DAY. 20-25 KTS.
TUE...COOL AND STILL GUSTY BUT ONLY 15 KTS.
WED/THU...QUIET HIGH PRES DAY. STILL UNDECIDED HOW TO PLAY THE CURRENT POPS.
FRI...CONTINUITY WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...NOTING IMPROVING VSBYS MAINLY OVER CT VALLEY...BUT CIGS
REMAIN AT MVFR-IFR. IFR-LIFR REMAINS OVER EASTERN MA INTO RI AT 09Z.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CT VALLEY AS
FRONT APPROACHES.
THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...ISOLATED ESPECIALLY I 95 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E
AS PRECIP AND FRONT CLEAR THE EAST COAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR.
MONDAYS EXCEPTION: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS. VSBYS WILL START OFF IN THE 2 TO 4 NM RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.
TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT S-SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...W-SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG 105
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB/DRAG 105
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/EVT 105
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/EVT/RLG 105
000
FXUS61 KBOX 081639
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SHOWERS
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE HELPING TO MIX THE AIR A BIT...SO NOTING
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...THOUGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. STILL HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER
SE MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS S
WINDS FRESHEN A BIT. CAN SEE THE FRONT QUITE CLEARLY ON THE NE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AT 15Z... APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE STRETCHES
FROM AROUND SARANAC LAKE NY...UTICA NY...DOWN INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN MOVE STEADILY EAST BY EVENING. AFTER LOOKING AT
SHOWATER...K...AND LIFTED INDICES AND TOTAL TOTALS...AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS FURTHER UPSTREAM...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS WILL BE THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE LOWER
60S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...THOUGH. IF
THE SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH...MIGHT BE EVEN MILDER AT SOME SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH TIMING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAINLY N OF THE
MASS PIKE. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1/4-1/2 INCH AT A FEW PLACES.
HAVE CARRIED LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DID TAKE A LOOK TO SEE ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PARAMETERS ARE CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AROUND 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO USED
A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS.
HAVE TEMPS FALLING TO THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AROUND THIS LOW AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -3C TO -4C BY 00Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO START TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE
COOLER AIR WORKS IN.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SUN WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH EAST.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60...BUT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THREE FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN OUR LONG TERM WEATHER.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN DURING MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO MOST OF THE COLD AIR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF US. THE COLD AIR DESTABILIZATION WILL
AID IN MIXING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING
LAYER ARE FORECAST FOR AROUND 20 KNOTS. SO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY ARE REASONABLE. WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C TO -2C...MAX
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS A PROBLEM IT WOULD BE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TUESDAY MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 900 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT -2C TO
-3C...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
FAR MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT
AT AN INVERTED TROF REACHING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z EC HOLDS A MUCH
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY EJECT A LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER BY 12-18 HOURS ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND BRING IN ONE BRIEF WEAK SLUG OF CHC POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THEN A LARGER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS FIELDS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THIS UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...NOTING IMPROVING VSBYS MAINLY OVER CT VALLEY...BUT CIGS
REMAIN AT MVFR-IFR. IFR-LIFR REMAINS OVER EASTERN MA INTO RI AT 09Z.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CT VALLEY AS
FRONT APPROACHES.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E
AS PRECIP AND FRONT CLEAR THE EAST COAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS. VSBYS WILL START OFF IN THE 2 TO 4 NM RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.
TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT S-SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...W-SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST
TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 081508
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SHOWERS
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS THAT WHILE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE IT CONTINUES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE HELPING TO MIX THE AIR A BIT...SO NOTING
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...THOUGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. STILL HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER
SE MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS S
WINDS FRESHEN A BIT. CAN SEE THE FRONT QUITE CLEARLY ON THE NE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AT 15Z... APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE STRETCHES
FROM AROUND SARANAC LAKE NY...UTICA NY...DOWN INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN MOVE STEADILY EAST BY EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE LOWER
60S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...THOUGH. IF
THE SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH...MIGHT BE EVEN MILDER AT SOME SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH TIMING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAINLY N OF THE
MASS PIKE. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1/4-1/2 INCH AT A FEW PLACES.
HAVE CARRIED LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DID TAKE A LOOK TO SEE ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PARAMETERS ARE CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AROUND 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO USED
A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS.
HAVE TEMPS FALLING TO THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AROUND THIS LOW AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -3C TO -4C BY 00Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO START TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE
COOLER AIR WORKS IN.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SUN WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH EAST.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60...BUT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THREE FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN OUR LONG TERM WEATHER.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN DURING MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO MOST OF THE COLD AIR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF US. THE COLD AIR DESTABILIZATION WILL
AID IN MIXING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING
LAYER ARE FORECAST FOR AROUND 20 KNOTS. SO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY ARE REASONABLE. WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C TO -2C...MAX
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS A PROBLEM IT WOULD BE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TUESDAY MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 900 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT -2C TO
-3C...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
FAR MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT
AT AN INVERTED TROF REACHING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z EC HOLDS A MUCH
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY EJECT A LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER BY 12-18 HOURS ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND BRING IN ONE BRIEF WEAK SLUG OF CHC POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THEN A LARGER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS FIELDS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THIS UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...NOTING IMPROVING VSBYS MAINLY OVER CT VALLEY...BUT CIGS
REMAIN AT MVFR-IFR. IFR-LIFR REMAINS OVER EASTERN MA INTO RI AT 09Z.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CT VALLEY AS
FRONT APPROACHES.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E
AS PRECIP AND FRONT CLEAR THE EAST COAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS. VSBYS WILL START OFF IN THE 2 TO 4 NM RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.
TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT S-SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...W-SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST
TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 081335
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
835 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SHOWERS
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS THAT THE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION HAS ENDED BY
AROUND 09Z AS LIGHT S WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE OVER. THIS IS ALSO HELPING
TO MIX THE AIR A BIT...SO NOTING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THOUGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. STILL
HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER SE MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
EXPECT THE FOG TO BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE...THEN CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS S WINDS FRESHEN A BIT. CAN SEE THE
FRONT QUITE CLEARLY ON THE NE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AT 09Z...
APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE FROM NEAR KSYR-KELM-KIPT.
EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN MOVE STEADILY EAST BY EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE LOWER
60S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...THOUGH. IF THE
SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH...MIGHT BE EVEN MILDER AT SOME SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH TIMING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAINLY N OF THE
MASS PIKE. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1/4-1/2 INCH AT A FEW PLACES.
HAVE CARRIED LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DID TAKE A LOOK TO SEE ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PARAMETERS ARE CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AROUND 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO USED
A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS.
HAVE TEMPS FALLING TO THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AROUND THIS LOW AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -3C TO -4C BY 00Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO START TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE
COOLER AIR WORKS IN.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SUN WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH EAST.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60...BUT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THREE FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN OUR LONG TERM WEATHER.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN DURING MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO MOST OF THE COLD AIR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF US. THE COLD AIR DESTABILIZATION WILL
AID IN MIXING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING
LAYER ARE FORECAST FOR AROUND 20 KNOTS. SO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY ARE REASONABLE. WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C TO -2C...MAX
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS A PROBLEM IT WOULD BE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TUESDAY MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 900 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT -2C TO
-3C...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
FAR MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT
AT AN INVERTED TROF REACHING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z EC HOLDS A MUCH
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY EJECT A LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER BY 12-18 HOURS ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND BRING IN ONE BRIEF WEAK SLUG OF CHC POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THEN A LARGER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS FIELDS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THIS UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...NOTING IMPROVING VSBYS MAINLY OVER CT VALLEY...BUT CIGS
REMAIN AT MVFR-IFR. IFR-LIFR REMAINS OVER EASTERN MA INTO RI AT 09Z.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CT VALLEY AS
FRONT APPROACHES.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E
AS PRECIP AND FRONT CLEAR THE EAST COAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS AS SWELLS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 FT. VSBYS WILL START OFF AT
1 NM OR LESS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL IMPROVE IN
THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.
TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT S-SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...W-SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST
TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 080942
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SHOWERS
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS THAT THE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION HAS ENDED BY
AROUND 09Z AS LIGHT S WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE OVER. THIS IS ALSO HELPING
TO MIX THE AIR A BIT...SO NOTING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THOUGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. STILL
HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER SE MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
EXPECT THE FOG TO BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE...THEN CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS S WINDS FRESHEN A BIT. CAN SEE THE
FRONT QUITE CLEARLY ON THE NE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AT 09Z...
APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE FROM NEAR KSYR-KELM-KIPT.
EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN MOVE STEADILY EAST BY EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE LOWER
60S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...THOUGH. IF THE
SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH...MIGHT BE EVEN MILDER AT SOME SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH TIMING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAINLY N OF THE
MASS PIKE. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1/4-1/2 INCH AT A FEW PLACES.
HAVE CARRIED LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DID TAKE A LOOK TO SEE ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PARAMETERS ARE CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AROUND 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO USED
A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS.
HAVE TEMPS FALLING TO THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AROUND THIS LOW AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -3C TO -4C BY 00Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO START TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE
COOLER AIR WORKS IN.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SUN WILL MAKE ITS RETURN AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH EAST.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60...BUT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THREE FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN OUR LONG TERM WEATHER.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN DURING MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO MOST OF THE COLD AIR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF US. THE COLD AIR DESTABILIZATION WILL
AID IN MIXING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING
LAYER ARE FORECAST FOR AROUND 20 KNOTS. SO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY ARE REASONABLE. WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C TO -2C...MAX
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS A PROBLEM IT WOULD BE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TUESDAY MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 900 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT -2C TO
-3C...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
FAR MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT
AT AN INVERTED TROF REACHING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z EC HOLDS A MUCH
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY EJECT A LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER BY 12-18 HOURS ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND BRING IN ONE BRIEF WEAK SLUG OF CHC POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THEN A LARGER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS FIELDS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THIS UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...NOTING IMPROVING VSBYS MAINLY OVER CT VALLEY...BUT CIGS
REMAIN AT MVFR-IFR. IFR-LIFR REMAINS OVER EASTERN MA INTO RI AT 09Z.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CT VALLEY AS
FRONT APPROACHES.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E
AS PRECIP AND FRONT CLEAR THE EAST COAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS AS SWELLS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 FT. VSBYS WILL START OFF AT
1 NM OR LESS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL IMPROVE IN
THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.
TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT S-SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...W-SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
000
FXUS61 KGYX 080856
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
356 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND CROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY...RIDGING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR TODAY INCLUDE FOG AND DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...AND TIMING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A MOIST MARINE LAYER
AHEAD OF A PSEUDO WARM FRONT TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. LOWER CLOUDS
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAVE CUT OFF THE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO THE
WEST (ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE). THE
FOG AND DRIZZLE HAS BECOME A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING AS
SOME OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH MOVE NORTH.
TO THE WEST...CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO DRIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NEW YORK STATES SOUTH THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. 0000 UTC
SOUNDINGS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND OHIO SHOWED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE INVERSION IN PLACE...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED
YET.
THE FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DISSIPATE ABOUT THAT SAME TIME AS
FRIDAY MORNING (IF NOT A BIT FASTER...BASED ON WHAT IS GOING ON TO
THE WEST). THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS
THE FOG EXITS AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE. HOWEVER...
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD STILL COVER. HIGHS WERE BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED FRIDAY...AND THIS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MOS BLEND.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A TAF BETTER WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ITS
TIMING WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE OPENING SYSTEM IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE ONSET TIMING OF THE SHOWERS WAS SLOWED A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PEAKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 0300
UTC AND 0900 UTC SUNDAY. BASED ON THE TIMING...THE SHOWERS MAY TAPER
OFF LATE AT NIGHT ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...CLOSE TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS CARRY THIS EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREAS TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION WOULD HAVE TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND FOR NOW WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TEXT FORECAST.
WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE MOS BLEND.
THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE 0000 UTC
NAM SEEMS A BIT TOO SLOW...EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. LEFT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING...AND THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.
THE MODIFIED DOWNSLOPE SHOULD HELP FAVORED AREAS BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE SKY FORECAST WAS MORE
PESSIMISTIC. HIGHS WERE BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MAX
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY MONDAY. GFS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE NAM...WITH A PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE MORNING...AND LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
BELOW 15000 FT...WITH EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED CAPES AS THE VORT
MAX PASSES. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT...FEEL THIS SUPPORTS LIKELY
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS...A TAD ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. POPS DROP OFF
SOUTH...DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON OUR SOUTHERN BORDER...AS THESE
AREAS ARE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR SNOW. EXPECT PRECIPITATION MAY START AS RAIN IN SHOWERS...BUT
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
GIVEN CAPES...COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...OR GRAUPEL.
FOR TEMPERATURES...USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 925 MB WINDS
AROUND 20 KTS...AND RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE THE WESTERLY DIRECTION OF THE WIND...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL DUE TO
THE BARRIER ORIENTATION. CARRY CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOR
UPSLOPING. HEDGED WARMER THAN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOOKING AHEAD...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NOW GFS/EUROPEAN/GEM ALL HAVE
THIS GENERAL PATTERN. DESPITE THE HIGH AT THE SURFACE...THERE ARE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL 500 MB FLOW. SHORTWAVES MAY SPARK
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT SOME POINT FROM TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY...HOWEVER NO CONFIDENCE IN MODELS PLACEMENT OF SUBTLE
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. PREFER TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LOWER...UNTIL MODELS KEY IN ON A FEATURE...SINCE IT IS A GENERALLY
DRY PATTERN. USE MOS FOR HIGHS...BUT GIVEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE MODEL AGREEMENT
ON WARMING 850 TEMPS...HEDGE ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS FOR LOWS.
THE NEXT EVENT APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS CANNOT
SETTLE ON WHETHER TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PHASE OR NOT.
FOR NOW...AM CONFIDENT IN A GENERALLY BAROCLINIC 500 MB PATTERN
FOR FRIDAY...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIMEFRAME...AND NUDGE A TAD WARMER THAN MOS
WHICH SEEMS ONT HE COLD SIDE GIVEN EUROPEAN/GFS/GEM CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM (TODAY)...THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES HAS BEEN
BOUNCING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY ALLOW THE FOG TO
DISPERSE. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR IS
LOW...CONTINUED TO IFR/LIFR FORECAST THROUGH 1400 UTC. AFTER
THIS...ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE A 3 OR 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY WITH VISIBILITY).
IN THE SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...THE SHOWERS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 2000 UTC SATURDAY AND 0200 UTC SUNDAY. DURING THE
SHOWERS...EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
IN THE LONG TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...BRIEFLY LOWERING VSBY TO IFR OR LOWER IN SPOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM (TODAY)...WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST...JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE A BIT AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS
TODAY.
THE SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO BE ON OF TWO MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS ON THE WATERS TODAY. THE SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES...AND THE
WNAWAVE MODEL IS RUNNING A BIT ON THIS. SINCE THE SWELL TRAINS
EXTENDS OUT AS FAR AS BUOY OBSERVATIONS CAN SEE...WILL ONCE AGAIN
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO A PROBLEM THIS MORNING. GOMOOS BUOYS ARE SHOWING
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES AT ONE-HALF NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WOULD EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
IMPROVEMENT.
IN THE SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...THE GRADIENT SLOWLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS SHOULD
OCCUR AT THE C MAN STATIONS (WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THE SETUP).
SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY
LOW. FOR THIS REASON...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS CAN BE REEVALUATED BY THE DAY CREW. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD GET BETTER AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...AS WINDS START TO TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS.
LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. EXPECT MOS IS A BIT LOW ON
THIS...GIVEN GOOD MIXING IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...APFFEL
000
FXUS61 KBOX 080854
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST
SAT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AT 04Z. NEXT
APPRECIABLE PRECIP SEEN IS OVER WESTERN NY STATE AND PA WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.
DID KEEP IN PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...KEPT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND AREAS
OF FOG ON THE COAST WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER
SE MA AND THE S COAST ARE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE...BUT NOT BELOW 1/4 MILE
WHICH IS CRITERIA FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT MORE UPWARD. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DO ANYWHERE...MAYBE A DEGREE OR
TWO AT A FEW LOCALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE VERY MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.
AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.
SAT NIGHT...AS HANDED OFF FROM THE SHORT TERM...CFP WITH ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS OF THUNDER...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN QPF WITH THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA DID NOT ARM ME WITH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER. NEW 18Z NAM IS ROBUST ON THUNDER RISK NOW
FOR SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AND FUTURE FORECASTS
MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS BUT THE UK/EC/GGEM/RGEM AMOUNTS ARE NOT
ROBUST SO HAVE REMAINED ON THE NULL SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC
YES/NO. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z GFS ENS HAVE LESS THAN .2 INCHES FOR
OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS GAVE ME ADDITIONAL PAUSE TO GO BEEFY. AS YOU
KNOW...THE GFS DID NOT PERFORM ADMIRABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
SNES DELAYED WED NIGHT-THU RAIN...SO MY HEAVIER RELIANCE ON ITS
ENSEMBLES AS A PREDICTOR FOR SAT NIGHT MAY BE MISPLACED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THREE FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...HIGH RPESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN OUR LONG TERM WEATHER.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN DURING MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS IN
SOUTEHRN NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO MOST OF THE COLD AIR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF US. THE COLD AIR DESTABILIZATION WILL
AID IN MIXING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING
LAYER ARE FORECAST FOR AROUND 20 KNOTS. SO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY ARE REASONABLE. WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C TO -2C...MAX
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY HAS A PROBLEM IT WOULD BE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TUESDAY MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 900 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT -2C TO
-3C...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
FAR MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT
AT AN INVERTED TROF REACHING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z EC HOLDS A MUCH
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY EJECT A LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER BY 12-18 HOURS ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND BRING IN ONE BRIEF WEAK SLUG OF CHC POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THEN A LARGER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS FIELDS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THIS UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS...THOUGH THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE BELOW 1/2SM THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY MAINLY OVER THE CT VALLEY.
SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ORH AND MHT. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. KEPT VSBYS
BELOW 1 MILE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS BELOW 1/2 MILE. KEPT SMALL CRAFT GOING FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
FOR OPEN WATERS AND RI SOUND WITH CONTINUED HIGH SWELLS.
SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS MOST WATERS SUNDAYNIGHT AND
MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THIS TOO SHOULD
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 080437
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1135 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST
SAT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AT 04Z. NEXT
APPRECIABLE PRECIP SEEN IS OVER WESTERN NY STATE AND PA WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.
DID KEEP IN PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...KEPT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND AREAS
OF FOG ON THE COAST WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER
SE MA AND THE S COAST ARE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE...BUT NOT BELOW 1/4 MILE
WHICH IS CRITERIA FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT MORE UPWARD. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DO ANYWHERE...MAYBE A DEGREE OR
TWO AT A FEW LOCALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE VERY MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.
AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SAT NIGHT...A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY SHOWER
AMOUNTS.
SUN-TUE...ABOVE AVERAGE.
WED-FRI...BELOW AVERAGE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM...DO WE HAVE TWO WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE...WED AND AGAIN FRI...OR ONE LARGER ONE NEXT FRI.
THE DAILIES...
SAT NIGHT...AS HANDED OFF FROM THE SHORT TERM...CFP WITH ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS OF THUNDER...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN QPF WITH THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA DID NOT ARM ME WITH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER. NEW 18Z NAM IS ROBUST ON THUNDER RISK NOW
FOR SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AND FUTURE FORECASTS
MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS BUT THE UK/EC/GGEM/RGEM AMOUNTS ARE NOT
ROBUST SO HAVE REMAINED ON THE NULL SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC
YES/NO. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z GFS ENS HAVE LESS THAN .2 INCHES FOR
OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS GAVE ME ADDITIONAL PAUSE TO GO BEEFY. AS YOU
KNOW...THE GFS DID NOT PERFORM ADMIRABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
SNES DELAYED WED NIGHT-THU RAIN...SO MY HEAVIER RELIANCE ON ITS
ENSEMBLES AS A PREDICTOR FOR SAT NIGHT MAY BE MISPLACED.
SUN-TUE...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WITH GOOD HFC EARLY MON HAS CAUSED ME
TO RAISE POPS A BIT IN NW MA AND SW NH TO BETTER MATCH MULTI MODEL
LIGHT QPF FOR THE PERIOD 06Z-18Z MONDAY. OTRW A NICE SUNDAY WITH
COLDER DAYTIMES MON AND TUE. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SC EACH DAY.
TEMPS ARE 50/50 MERGE OF 4AM KBOX FCST AND 12Z/7 GFS MOSGUIDE...
WHICH IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL SFC TT AND 850
TEMPS/ 1000-850 THICKNESS.
WED-FRI...ITS GOING PRECIPITATE 8 TO 24 HOURS HEREIN. THAT I AM
CATEGORICALLY /80 PERCENT/ SURE OF. JUST DONT KNOW WHICH PERIODS.
YDY CUT THE POPS FOR WED DUE TO MULTIMODEL AND GFS ENS AGREEMENT ON
NO WED EVENT.
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY ITS BACK...THO WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
IF PRECIP OCCURS WED AND THU... THERE A GOOD CHANCE OF ICE OR A BIT
OF SNOW IN THE NW INTERIOR...ESSENTIALLY N AND W OF AN ASH-FIT-ORH-
BDL LINE. HOW EXTENSIVE AND MEANINGFUL? I THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
AVAILABLE MULTI MODEL INFORMATION TO SUGGEST A COLD PCPN EVENT AT
ONSET. THE 12Z GFS ENS HAS .6 OVER ALL OF SNE BY FRI AFTN. DID NOT
BOOST POPS TO LIKELY DAY 7 BUT NEXT FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A DAY FOR A
GENERAL RAIN OR SHOWERY EVENT.
HWO HAS THE HAZARDS OUTLINED...BOTH ON VERY LOW PROB THUNDER COASTAL
WATERS SAT NIGHT AND A LOW PROB HAZARDOUS ICE/SNOW EVENT.
THE WARM ANOMALY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SINK TO AOB NORMAL DAYTIMES MON
THRU FRI OF NEXT WEEK AND THE NIGHT TIMES AOB MON-WED AND THEN
WARMING THU AND FRI MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS...THOUGH THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE BELOW 1/2SM THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY MAINLY OVER THE CT VALLEY.
SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. KEPT VSBYS
BELOW 1 MILE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS BELOW 1/2 MILE. KEPT SMALL CRAFT GOING FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
FOR OPEN WATERS AND RI SOUND WITH CONTINUED HIGH SWELLS.
SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SCA HEADLINE FOR SEAS WAS EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MORE THAN
LIKELY THE SCA WILL CONTINUE IN THE OPEN WATERS S OF NEW ENGLAND SUN
INTO TUE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/EVT
000
FXUS61 KGYX 080120
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
820 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY TO FRIDAY...STARTING WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE AND THEN
JUST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO IF
WE WERE TO GET ANY SUN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WELL IN THE 60S WITH
SOME 70S. BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL INSTEAD KEEP READINGS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE FRONT SLOWLY PULLS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A FEW SUNNY BREAKS IN THE
AFTERNOON DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
IN THE MORNING AND THEN BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BROAD UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH IN THE NORTH AS WELL AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY LOOKING MUCH THE SAME WAY AT THIS POINT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE SOUTH AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY STILL FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION BUT MODELS NOW BRINGING IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT MODEL CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN AND WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXPECT A LOT MORE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CEILINGS WILL FILL IN AND BECOME LIFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...LOOK FOR IFR CEILINGS
AND IMPROVING VISIBILITY. MOUNTAIN AND WESTERN SECTIONS COULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHEAST SWELL IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING...BUT
REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT. EXPECT SEAS
TO FINALLY DROP BELOW 5 FT ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KBOX 072218
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
518 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST SAT...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
504 PM GRID UPDATE TO RUN DENSE FOG ..ONE QUARTER MILE VSBY.. VCNTY CAPE
COD TO ACK AND BID THROUGH 02Z. GRIDS POSTING. CWF/ZFP AND ALL SAFS
UPDATED.
NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF
FINAL EXITS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.
FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA - BOSTON/CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
SUPPORT VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S. THUS...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SO EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP A BIT LATER ACROSS THIS AREA.
AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF TONIGHT AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN
THE 50S AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVECTION. SO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.
AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SAT NIGHT...A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY SHOWER AMOUNTS.
SUN-TUE...ABOVE AVERAGE.
WED-FRI...BELOW AVERAGE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM...DO WE HAVE TWO WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE... WED AND AGAIN FRI.... OR ONE LARGER ONE NEXT FRI.
THE DAILIES...
SAT NIGHT...AS HANDED OFF FROM THE SHORT TERM...CFP WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS OF THUNDER...
BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF WITH
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA DID NOT ARM ME WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER. NEW 18Z NAM
IS ROBUST ON THUNDER RISK NOW FOR SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS BUT THE UK/EC/GGEM
/RGEM AMOUNTS ARE NOT ROBUST SO HAVE REMAINED ON THE NULL SIDE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC YES/NO. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z GFS ENS HAVE LESS THAN .2
INCHES FOR OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS GAVE ME ADDITIONAL PAUSE TO GO BEEFY.
AS YOU KNOW...THE GFS DID NOT PERFORM ADMIRABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
SNES DELAYED WED NIGHT-THU RAIN...SO MY HEAVIER RELIANCE ON ITS ENSEMBLES
AS A PREDICTOR FOR SAT NIGHT MAY BE MISPLACED.
SUN-TUE...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WITH GOOD HFC EARLY MON HAS CAUSED ME TO
RAISE POPS A BIT IN NW MA AND SW NH TO BETTER MATCH MULTI MODEL LIGHT
QPF FOR THE PERIOD 06Z -18Z MONDAY. OTRW A NICE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
DAYTIMES MON AND TUE. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SC EACH DAY. TEMPS ARE
50/50 MERGE OF 4AM KBOX FCST AND 12Z/7 GFS MOSGUIDE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED WELL BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL SFC TT AND 850 TEMPS/
1000-850 THICKNESS.
WED-FRI...ITS GOING PRECIPITATE 8 TO 24 HOURS HEREIN. THAT I AM
CATEGORICALLY /80 PERCENT/ SURE OF. JUST DONT KNOW WHICH PERIODS.
YDY CUT THE POPS FOR WED DUE TO MULTIMODEL AND GFS ENS AGREEMENT ON
NO WED EVENT.
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY ITS BACK...THO WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
IF PRECIP OCCURS WED AND THU... THERE A GOOD CHANCE OF ICE OR A BIT
OF SNOW IN THE NW INTERIOR...ESSENTIALLY N AND W OF AN ASH-FIT-ORH-
BDL LINE. HOW EXTENSIVE AND MEANINGFUL? I THINK THERE IS ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MULTI MODEL INFORMATION TO SUGGEST A COLD PCPN EVENT AT ONSET. THE
12Z GFS ENS HAS .6 OVER ALL OF SNE BY FRI AFTN. DID NOT BOOST POPS TO
LIKELY DAY 7 BUT NEXT FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A DAY FOR A GENERAL RAIN
OR SHOWERY EVENT.
HWO HAS THE HAZARDS OUTLINED...BOTH ON VERY LOW PROB THUNDER COASTAL
WATERS SAT NIGHT AND A LOW PROB HAZARDOUS ICE/SNOW EVENT.
THE WARM ANOMALY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SINK TO AOB NORMAL DAYTIMES MON
THRU FRI OF NEXT WEEK AND THE NIGHT TIMES AOB MON-WED AND THEN
WARMING THU AND FRI MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT MVFR BDL/BAF/ORH/MHT.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE BOS/HYA AND ACK ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM.
SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE POOR VSBY IN DENSE FOG EASTERN MA WATERS.
ELSEWHERE VSBY LOWERING TO 1 NM OR LESS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SE SWELLS OF 5-8 FT.
SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SCA HEADLINE FOR SEAS WAS EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MORE THAN
LIKELY THE SCA WILL CONTINUE IN THE OPEN WATERS S OF NEW ENGLAND SUN
INTO TUE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DRAG 517
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DRAG 517
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 072150
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST SAT...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF
FINAL EXITS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.
FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA - BOSTON/CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
SUPPORT VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S. THUS...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SO EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP A BIT LATER ACROSS THIS AREA.
AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF TONIGHT AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN
THE 50S AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVECTION. SO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.
AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SAT NIGHT...A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY SHOWER AMOUNTS.
SUN-TUE...ABOVE AVERAGE.
WED-FRI...BELOW AVERAGE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM...DO WE HAVE TWO WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE... WED AND AGAIN FRI.... OR ONE LARGER ONE NEXT FRI.
THE DAILIES...
SAT NIGHT...AS HANDED OFF FROM THE SHORT TERM...CFP WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS OF THUNDER...
BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF WITH
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA DID NOT ARM ME WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER. NEW 18Z NAM
IS ROBUST ON THUNDER RISK NOW FOR SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS BUT THE UK/EC/GGEM
/RGEM AMOUNTS ARE NOT ROBUST SO HAVE REMAINED ON THE NULL SIDE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC YES/NO. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z GFS ENS HAVE LESS THAN .2
INCHES FOR OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS GAVE ME ADDITIONAL PAUSE TO GO BEEFY.
AS YOU KNOW...THE GFS DID NOT PERFORM ADMIRABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
SNES DELAYED WED NIGHT-THU RAIN...SO MY HEAVIER RELIANCE ON ITS ENSEMBLES
AS A PREDICTOR FOR SAT NIGHT MAY BE MISPLACED.
SUN-TUE...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WITH GOOD HFC EARLY MON HAS CAUSED ME TO
RAISE POPS A BIT IN NW MA AND SW NH TO BETTER MATCH MULTI MODEL LIGHT
QPF FOR THE PERIOD 06Z -18Z MONDAY. OTRW A NICE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
DAYTIMES MON AND TUE. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SC EACH DAY. TEMPS ARE
50/50 MERGE OF 4AM KBOX FCST AND 12Z/7 GFS MOSGUIDE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED WELL BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL SFC TT AND 850 TEMPS/
1000-850 THICKNESS.
WED-FRI...ITS GOING PRECIPITATE 8 TO 24 HOURS HEREIN. THAT I AM
CATEGORICALLY /80 PERCENT/ SURE OF. JUST DONT KNOW WHICH PERIODS.
YDY CUT THE POPS FOR WED DUE TO MULTIMODEL AND GFS ENS AGREEMENT ON
NO WED EVENT.
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY ITS BACK...THO WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
IF PRECIP OCCURS WED AND THU... THERE A GOOD CHANCE OF ICE OR A BIT
OF SNOW IN THE NW INTERIOR...ESSENTIALLY N AND W OF AN ASH-FIT-ORH-
BDL LINE. HOW EXTENSIVE AND MEANINGFUL? I THINK THERE IS ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MULTI MODEL INFORMATION TO SUGGEST A COLD PCPN EVENT AT ONSET. THE
12Z GFS ENS HAS .6 OVER ALL OF SNE BY FRI AFTN. DID NOT BOOST POPS TO
LIKELY DAY 7 BUT NEXT FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A DAY FOR A GENERAL RAIN
OR SHOWERY EVENT.
HWO HAS THE HAZARDS OUTLINED...BOTH ON VERY LOW PROB THUNDER COASTAL
WATERS SAT NIGHT AND A LOW PROB HAZARDOUS ICE/SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT MVFR BDL/BAF/ORH/MHT.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE BOS/HYA AND ACK ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM.
SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE POOR VSBY IN DENSE FOG EASTERN MA WATERS.
ELSEWHERE VSBY LOWERING TO 1 NM OR LESS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SE SWELLS OF 5-8 FT.
SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SCA HEADLINE FOR SEAS WAS EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MORE THAN
LIKELY THE SCA WILL CONTINUE IN THE OPEN WATERS S OF NEW ENGLAND SUN
INTO TUE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 072137
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST SAT...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF
FINAL EXITS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.
FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA - BOSTON/CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
SUPPORT VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S. THUS...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SO EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP A BIT LATER ACROSS THIS AREA.
AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF TONIGHT AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN
THE 50S AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVECTION. SO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.
AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SAT NIGHT...A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY SHOWER AMOUNTS.
SUN-TUE...ABOVE AVERAGE.
WED-FRI...BELOW AVERAGE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM...DO WE HAVE TWO WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE... WED AND AGAIN FRI.... OR ONE LARGER ONE NEXT FRI.
THE DAILIES...
SAT NIGHT...AS HANDED OFF FROM THE SHORT TERM...CFP WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS OF THUNDER...
BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF WITH
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA DID NOT ARM ME WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER. NEW 18Z NAM
IS ROBUST ON THUNDER RISK NOW FOR SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS BUT THE UK/EC/GGEM
/RGEM AMOUNTS ARE NOT ROBUST SO HAVE REMAINED ON THE NULL SIDE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC YES/NO. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z GFS ENS HAVE LESS THAN .2
INCHES FOR OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS GAVE ME ADDITIONAL PAUSE TO GO BEEFY.
AS YOU KNOW...THE GFS DID NOT PERFORM ADMIRABLY WED AND THURSDAY FOR
SNE...SO MY HEAVIER RELIANCE ON ITS ENSEMBLES AS A PREDICTOR FOR SAT
NIGHT MAY BE MISPLACED.
SUN-TUE...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WITH GOOD HFC EARLY MON HAS CAUSED ME TO
RAISE POPS A BIT IN NW MA AND SW NH TO BETTER MATCH MULTI MODEL
LIGHT QPF FOR THE PERIOD 06Z -18Z MONDAY. OTRW A NICE SUNDAY WITH
COLDER DAYTIMES MON AND TUE. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SC EACH DAY.
WED-FRI...ITS GOING PRECIPITATE. THAT I AM CATEGORICALLY /80 PERCENT/
SURE OF. JUST DONT KNOW WHICH PERIODS. YDY CUT THE POPS FOR WED DUE
TO MULTIMODEL AND GFS ENS AGREEMENT ON NO WED EVENT. LAST NIGHT AND
TODAY ITS BACK...THO WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. IF PRECIP
OCCURS WED AND THU... THERE A GOOD CHANCE OF ICE OR A BIT OF SNOW IN
THE NW INTERIOR...ESSENTIALLY N AND W OF AN ASH-FIT-ORH-BDL LINE. HOW
EXTENSIVE AND MEANINGFUL I HAVE NO CLUE...BUT I THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
AVAILABLE INFORMATION TO SUGGEST A COLD PCPN EVENT AT ONSET. THE 12Z
GFS ENS HAS .6 OVER ALL OF SNE BY FRI AFTN. DID NOT BOOST POPS TO LIKELY
DAY 7 BUT NEXT FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A DAY FOR A RAIN EVENT.
STAY TUNED FOR DEVELOPMENTS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR A POSSIBLE
ADVISORY PRECIPITATION EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT MVFR BDL/BAF/ORH/MHT.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE BOS/HYA AND ACK ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM.
SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE POOR VSBY IN DENSE FOG EASTERN MA WATERS.
ELSEWHERE VSBY LOWERING TO 1 NM OR LESS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SE SWELLS OF 5-8 FT.
SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 072049
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST SAT...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF
FINAL EXITS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.
FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA - BOSTON/CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
SUPPORT VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S. THUS...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SO EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP A BIT LATER ACROSS THIS AREA.
AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF TONIGHT AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN
THE 50S AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVECTION. SO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WILL START THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 4 PM TO 7 PM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A BIT LATER FOR THE BOSTON- PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS WATER VAPORY IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AS PWATS CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH LATE SAT...WHICH IS ABOUT +1 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. GFS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILTY LATE SAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.
AS FOR TEMPS...IF WE GET ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SAT AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S PER THE GFS MOS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE WINDS AND LOW NOV SUN
ANGLE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DOMINANT. THEREFORE...CHOSE A COOLER
VERSION OF THE NAM12 2 METER TEMPS BLENDED WITH GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PULLING 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PW
VALUES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER UP...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
FROPA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS SO
THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH JUST
SHOWERS.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVE IS IN TURN BEING PUSHED
ALONG BY A 150 KNOT JET. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING MIXING WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRMER CONTROL TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLEARER
WEATHER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL FORM FROM THAT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL
EJECT TOWARD US. THE GFS SLAMS THE LOW NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MURKIER...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
DIGGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. WE
SLOWLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT MVFR BDL/BAF/ORH/MHT.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE BOS/HYA AND ACK ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM.
SATURDAY...
LIFR TO START AT BOS/HYA AND ACK...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. THEN CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z MVFR IN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT BDL/BAF...THEN TOWARDS 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE POOR VSBY IN DENSE FOG EASTERN MA WATERS.
ELSEWHERE VSBY LOWERING TO 1 NM OR LESS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SE SWELLS OF 5-8 FT.
SAT...
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO 2-3 NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SE SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD BLOCK ISLAND.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 071959
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY TO FRIDAY...STARTING WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE AND THEN
JUST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO IF
WE WERE TO GET ANY SUN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WELL IN THE 60S WITH
SOME 70S. BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL INSTEAD KEEP READINGS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE FRONT SLOWLY PULLS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A FEW SUNNY BREAKS IN THE
AFTERNOON DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
IN THE MORNING AND THEN BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BROAD UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH IN THE NORTH AS WELL AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY LOOKING MUCH THE SAME WAY AT THIS POINT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE SOUTH AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY STILL FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION BUT MODELS NOW BRINGING IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT MODEL CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN AND WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXPECT A LOT MORE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CEILINGS WILL FILL IN AND BECOME LIFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...LOOK FOR IFR CEILINGS
AND IMPROVING VISIBILITY. MOUNTAIN AND WESTERN SECTIONS COULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHEAST SWELL IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING...BUT
REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT. EXPECT SEAS
TO FINALLY DROP BELOW 5 FT ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KBOX 071507
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LINGER THERE
TODAY...THEN MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY EITHER MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OCCLUDED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
BECOMING VERY ELONGATED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AT THE LOW LEVELS TROFFINESS
WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...
OVERCAST SKIES WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE WEATHER
THEME FOR TODAY.
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...AS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ANY SUNSHINE WILL FILL IN ANY BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS INDICATE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MASS BAY AND CAPE COD BAY...
ALONG WITH NOV LOW SUN ANGLE.
STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S
ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE VALUES MAY SEEM COOL GIVEN THE DAMP
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THESE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH E OF THE
REGION...GIVING A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION. LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL
HANG IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEAKENING LOW AND THE NEXT FRONT. NOT
A LOT OF DRYING INFLUENCE TO CLEAR SKIES OUT OR EVEN BREAK THE LOW
CLOUDS UP. BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS BUFKIT RH CROSS SECTIONS KEEP LOTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW.
HAVE ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL REMAINING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WILL START OFF WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO S AND START TO PICK UP. STILL EXPECTING QUITE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. MAY ACTUALLY GET A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD WARM SOME LOCATIONS HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER-MID 60S.
WILL START TO SEE ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS INTO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
OR AFTER 18Z...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE. USED A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS FOR TIMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PULLING 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PW
VALUES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER UP...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
FROPA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS SO
THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH JUST
SHOWERS.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVE IS IN TURN BEING PUSHED
ALONG BY A 150 KNOT JET. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING MIXING WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRMER CONTROL TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLEARER
WEATHER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL FORM FROM THAT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL
EJECT TOWARD US. THE GFS SLAMS THE LOW NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MURKIER...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
DIGGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. WE
SLOWLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH HIGHEST CEILINGS AND BEST VSBY ACROSS THE CT RVR VALLEY.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG THE COAST LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. MVFR
CIGS RETURN WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT DURING THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS NOT AN ISSUE TODAY WITH LIGHT N WINDS PREVAILING. MAIN
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE POOR VSBY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS...
SAY FROM BUZZARDS BAY EASTWARD. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS
INDICATE VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILES OR LESS. THIS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE DAY GIVEN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MASS BAY/CAPE COD BAY INTO
NANTUCKET SOUND...ALONG WITH NOV LOW SUN ANGLE NOT BEING ABLE TO BURN
OFF ANY FOG.
TONIGHT...WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT.
SEAS MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO S-SW AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 071154
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LINGER THERE
TODAY...THEN MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY EITHER MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 09Z.
NOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST ON NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR. ALSO SEE REPORTS OF SPOTTY
DRIZZLE. MOST AREAS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOWERED VSBYS /A MILE OR LESS/ ARE CONFINED TO EASTERN
SECTIONS IN AREAS OF FOG.
THE LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT FINALLY SHIFTS E IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE THROUGH OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 60
OR INTO THE LOWER 60S. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAVMOS GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH NAM 2M TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH E OF THE
REGION...GIVING A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION. LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL
HANG IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEAKENING LOW AND THE NEXT FRONT. NOT
A LOT OF DRYING INFLUENCE TO CLEAR SKIES OUT OR EVEN BREAK THE LOW
CLOUDS UP. BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS BUFKIT RH CROSS SECTIONS KEEP LOTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW.
HAVE ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL REMAINING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WILL START OFF WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO S AND START TO PICK UP. STILL EXPECTING QUITE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. MAY ACTUALLY GET A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD WARM SOME LOCATIONS HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER-MID 60S.
WILL START TO SEE ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS INTO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
OR AFTER 18Z...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE. USED A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS FOR TIMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PULLING 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PW
VALUES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER UP...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
FROPA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS SO
THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH JUST
SHOWERS.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVE IS IN TURN BEING PUSHED
ALONG BY A 150 KNOT JET. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING MIXING WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRMER CONTROL TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLEARER
WEATHER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL FORM FROM THAT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL
EJECT TOWARD US. THE GFS SLAMS THE LOW NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MURKIER...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
DIGGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. WE
SLOWLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG THE COAST LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. MVFR
CIGS RETURN WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT DURING THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 KT OR LESS...BUT WILL STILL SEE
SEAS UPWARD TO 10 FEET S AND E OF NANTUCKET. HAVE CONVERTED TO A
SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
TONIGHT...WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT.
SEAS MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO S-SW AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 070930
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LINGER THERE
TODAY...THEN MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY EITHER MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 09Z.
NOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST ON NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR. ALSO SEE REPORTS OF SPOTTY
DRIZZLE. MOST AREAS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOWERED VSBYS /A MILE OR LESS/ ARE CONFINED TO EASTERN
SECTIONS IN AREAS OF FOG.
THE LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT FINALLY SHIFTS E IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE THROUGH OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 60
OR INTO THE LOWER 60S. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAVMOS GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH NAM 2M TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH E OF THE
REGION...GIVING A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION. LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL
HANG IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEAKENING LOW AND THE NEXT FRONT. NOT
A LOT OF DRYING INFLUENCE TO CLEAR SKIES OUT OR EVEN BREAK THE LOW
CLOUDS UP. BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS BUFKIT RH CROSS SECTIONS KEEP LOTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW.
HAVE ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL REMAINING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WILL START OFF WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO S AND START TO PICK UP. STILL EXPECTING QUITE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. MAY ACTUALLY GET A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD WARM SOME LOCATIONS HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER-MID 60S.
WILL START TO SEE ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS INTO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
OR AFTER 18Z...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE. USED A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS FOR TIMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PULLING 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PW
VALUES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER UP...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
FROPA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS SO
THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH JUST
SHOWERS.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVE IS IN TURN BEING PUSHED
ALONG BY A 150 KNOT JET. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING MIXING WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRMER CONTROL TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLEARER
WEATHER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL FORM FROM THAT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL
EJECT TOWARD US. THE GFS SLAMS THE LOW NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MURKIER...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
DIGGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. WE
SLOWLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG THE COAST LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. MVFR
CIGS RETURN WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT DURING THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 KT OR LESS...BUT WILL STILL SEE
SEAS UPWARD TO 10 FEET S AND E OF NANTUCKET. HAVE CONVERTED TO A
SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
TONIGHT...WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT.
SEAS MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO S-SW AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
000
FXUS61 KGYX 070847
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL LIFT INTO THE MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH AND THE STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
AS THE SOUTHERN CLOSED SYSTEM OPENS UP AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH...THE
BEST LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. THE
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS THE BEST BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
EXTENDING EAST INTO NORTHEAST AND EASTERN MAINE. THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS LIFT.
AFTER THIS...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE AHEAD OF A PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THE FLOW WILL SATURATE AN ALREADY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...AFTER THE THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
SHOWERS EXIT...DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEATHER TYPES.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S...
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE TODAY.
HIGHS WERE BASED ON THE COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AND EASTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
FOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT. INSERTED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR ALL
AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD NOT DROP THAT MUCH TONIGHT...AND THESE
VALUES WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MOS BLEND.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED WITH THE APPROACH OF OPENING MID LEVEL SYSTEM
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. BASED ON THIS...IT WOULD SEEM
AS THOUGH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE DELAYED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
PUSHED BACK A TAD FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO SUN SATURDAY...HIGHS WERE BASED AGAIN ON THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS/GEM FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND
DEVELOPING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. DYNAMICS
ARE WEAK WITH THIS...HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THIS...GO WITH 80 POPS IN MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE HIGH POPS...EXPECT QPFS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH IN MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE...GO ABOVE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND
FOR LOWS. FEEL MOS MAY BE EXPECTING SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LIGHT WINDS...HOWEVER FULL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH AT ALL.
SYSTEM MOVES EAST SUNDAY...THOUGH COULD SEE SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LINGER
EAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. GEM A BIT LIGHTER ON QPFS THEN
NAM/GFS...SO HEDGE A TAD ON THE LOW SIDE FOR POPS. FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LINGERING POPS DUE TO
UPSLOPING FEATURES...THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN LIGHT
FLOW AND LESS THAN IDEAL WESTERLY FLOW. WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING...EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
BOTH GFS/EUROPEAN BRING A 500 MB LOW TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH
A VORT MAX CROSSING DURING THE DAY. FEEL THIS SUPPORTS CHANCE
POPS...HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTH...WHICH FALLS IN LINE WITH MOS. P-TYPE MARGINAL...BUT SHOULD
LARGELY BE RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BEYOND...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE 00Z GEM/GFS/EUROPEAN
ALL PARTING WAYS. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER
TUESDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOVES THE
HIGH EAST FASTER...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GEM/EUROPEAN KEEP THE HIGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN THE GEM BRINGS A SYSTEM UP LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN KEEPS IT SOUTH...AND THE GFS IS
FASTER AND SOUTH. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...NUDGE BACK GFS TIMING
TOWARDS CONSENSUS...AND MAINTAIN CONSISTENT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRIDAY. RAISE GFS MOS LOWS...GIVEN COOL BIAS AND POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE ONSHORE FLOW IS SATURATING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL TERMINALS ARE IFR/LIFR EXCEPT KCON
AND KLEB. WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THESE LOCATIONS...THEY SHOULD
DROP TO IFR THIS MORNING AS WELL.
WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE BEST
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 1600 UTC...AND KCON
AND KLEB MAY REACH MVFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...COOLING THIS EVENING WILL INTENSIFY
THE MARINE LAYER. ALL TERMINAL SHOULD DROP TO LIFR THIS EVENING...AND
REMAIN THERE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER 1400 UTC SATURDAY...KCON
AND KLEB MAY RISE TO MVFR IN THE LATER MORNING OR EARLY AFTER
AHEAD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE...IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF SATURDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM...LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT...LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
SUN THROUGH TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DELMARVA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES IS PRODUCING NEAR
SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX TODAY...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BACK OFF IN
ALL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN UP IN THE SOUTHEAST SWELL...WITH AN 11
SECOND PERIOD. THE SWELL HAS A LARGE FETCH TO COVER...AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE THROUGH TODAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS TONIGHT
MAY PRODUCE BACKING WINDS...AND WINDS MAY EVEN GO TO NORTHEAST
FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ANY
EVENT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE SWELL WILL BE
SLOW TO DISSIPATE...AND SEAS COULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
IN THE LONG TERM...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA SUNDAY NIGHT IN A SW FLOW.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...APFFEL
000
FXUS61 KBOX 070847
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LINGER THERE
TODAY...THEN MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH RPESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY
EITHER MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF MOD-HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS ALL BUT WEAKENED
EXCEPT OVER NE MA/SE NH AT 03Z. STILL NOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ROTATING NWWD OFF THE OCEAN AROUND THE MID ATLC LOW. ALSO NOTING
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...WHICH IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOIST FLOW.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO TRIM BACK THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS BY
MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH ADDING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. MOST AREAS REPORTED 1/2SM VSBY...ALONG WITH VSBYS BELOW
1/2SM FROM BOTH THE NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD FERRIES EARLIER
THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH MORE...AGAIN WITH
THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE 00Z NAM 2M TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...WHILE THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...CONTINUED WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MEANS
ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH STRATUS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE DOMINATING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.
UPDATE...BLENDED TEMPS AND POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE
UPDATED 12Z FORECAST GRIDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG KEEP THE
AREA WELL INSULATED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER...MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP KEEP PATCHY
DRIZZLE GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SAT...FOG DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. COMBO OF WEAK WAA
WITH INITIALLY DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE A SHALLOW HIGHLY MOIST LAYER
WITH DIFFERENTIAL FLOW THROUGH THAT MOIST LOW LAYER. A MILD PATTERN
THAT SUGGESTS DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY. IF IT REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH
STRATUS ALL DAY...TEMPS AS FCST IN THIS PACKAGE MAY BE A TAD WARM...
BUT IF SOMEHOW SUN COULD BE MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE AFTN...THEN IT
WOULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. PLEASE KEEP THAT IN MIND WHEN
MAKING A DECISION ON THE DETERMINISTIC FCST TEMPS. JUST TOO EARLY
FOR ME TO BE SURE WHICH WAY TO FAVOR...SO THE BROADER PROBABILISTIC
APPROACH OF INHERENT INCREASED ERROR IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. THE FCST
TEMPS ARE A 40 40 SPLIT OF THE 12Z GFS ETA MOS AND 20 PCT PRIOR 4 AM
KBOX FCST. THE FCST POPS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE 4AM FCST...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED. ALSO SLIGHTLY RAISED THE PRIOR POPS IN S NH DURING THE LATE
AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PULLING 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PW
VALUES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER UP...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
FROPA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS SO
THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH JUST
SHOWERS.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVE IS IN TURN BEING PUSHED
ALONG BY A 150 KNOT JET. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING MIXING WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRMER CONTROL TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLEARER
WEATHER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL FORM FROM THAT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL EJECT
TOWARD US. THE GFS SLAMS THE LOW NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS INTO
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MURKIER...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN
DIGGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. WE
SLOWLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY IN 1/2SM FG.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING FOR THE MOST
PART.
SAT...MVFR-IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG...THEN MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE BEFORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN
SHOWERS AND FOG AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WINDS
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOS AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. STILL
NOTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT...SO KEPT IT GOING FOR NOW. SEAS STILL
UPWARD TO 10 FEET SE OF NANTUCKET. NOT EXPECTING THESE TO DROP MUCH.
FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISHING GRADUALLY...ENDING IN THE 5-7FT RANGE WITH
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
237-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT/RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 070504
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1205 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRI...THEN MOVE OFF THROUGH NOVA
SCOTIA SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT
AND MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY
FOLLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST USA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER DRIER WEATHER. LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE
MIDWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF MOD-HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS ALL BUT WEAKENED
EXCEPT OVER NE MA/SE NH AT 03Z. STILL NOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ROTATING NWWD OFF THE OCEAN AROUND THE MID ATLC LOW. ALSO NOTING
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...WHICH IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOIST FLOW.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO TRIM BACK THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS BY
MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH ADDING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. MOST AREAS REPORTED 1/2SM VSBY...ALONG WITH VSBYS BELOW
1/2SM FROM BOTH THE NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD FERRIES EARLIER
THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH MORE...AGAIN WITH
THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE 00Z NAM 2M TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...WHILE THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...CONTINUED WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MEANS
ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH STRATUS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE DOMINATING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.
UPDATE...BLENDED TEMPS AND POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE
UPDATED 12Z FORECAST GRIDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG KEEP THE
AREA WELL INSULATED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER...MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP KEEP PATCHY
DRIZZLE GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS FCST IS A MERGER FROM THE 4AM KBOX FCST AND MOSTLY THE 12Z/6
GFS MAVMOS GUIDANCE.
SAT...FOG DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. COMBO OF WEAK WAA
WITH INITIALLY DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE A SHALLOW HIGHLY MOIST LAYER
WITH DIFFERENTIAL FLOW THROUGH THAT MOIST LOW LAYER. A MILD PATTERN
THAT SUGGESTS DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY. IF IT REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH
STRATUS ALL DAY...TEMPS AS FCST IN THIS PACKAGE MAY BE A TAD WARM...
BUT IF SOMEHOW SUN COULD BE MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE AFTN...THEN IT
WOULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. PLEASE KEEP THAT IN MIND WHEN
MAKING A DECISION ON THE DETERMINISTIC FCST TEMPS. JUST TOO EARLY
FOR ME TO BE SURE WHICH WAY TO FAVOR...SO THE BROADER PROBABILISTIC
APPROACH OF INHERENT INCREASED ERROR IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. THE FCST
TEMPS ARE A 40 40 SPLIT OF THE 12Z GFS ETA MOS AND 20 PCT PRIOR 4 AM
KBOX FCST. THE FCST POPS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE 4AM FCST...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED. ALSO SLIGHTLY RAISED THE PRIOR POPS IN S NH DURING THE LATE
AFTN.
ATTM BLV THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS IN THE 6 PM SAT TO 4 AM
SUNDAY TIME SLOT. FOR NOW HAVE LIKELY BOTH PERIODS FOR LEFTOVER
MORNING WAA MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
SUN-WED...CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PULSES OF EVER COLDER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT AND GENERAL COOLDOWN. THIS MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR
EVEN EVENTUALLY FLURRIES IN THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS ARE
ESSENTIALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST AND 12Z/6
GFS MAV MOSGUIDANCE. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MID WEEK WAVE OF LOW
PRES DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS PRONOUNCED. SO THE POPS WERE CUT BACK
BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CANNOT OCCUR. 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
12Z GFS ENS ARE SAYING HIGH PRES GOVERNS MID WEEK.
THU/FRI...MIDWEST LOW PRES AND EVENTUALLY WAA RAIN DEVELOPS WITH A
SLOW MODERATING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY IN 1/2SM FG.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING FOR THE MOST
PART.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SAT...MVFR-IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG...THEN MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE BEFORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN
SHOWERS AND FOG AT NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. STILL
NOTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT...SO KEPT IT GOING FOR NOW. SEAS STILL
UPWARD TO 10 FEET SE OF NANTUCKET. NOT EXPECTING THESE TO DROP MUCH.
FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISHING GRADUALLY...ENDING IN THE 5-7FT RANGE WITH
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...SAT THROUGH TUE...
NO MAJOR HEADLINES FORESEEN. SCA SEAS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
OPEN WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SOUTH OF RHODE
ISLAND SAT INTO MON. TUE MAY SEE SOME MARGINAL SCA WINDS AND SEAS
DUE TO CAA AND BETTER TRANSFER - STEEPER OVERWATER LAPSE RATES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT/RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT
| 
