000
FXUS63 KFGF 090147 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
747 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TRENDS AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
TONIGHT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOUGH OVER OUR
WESTERN FA...AND IF ANYTHING THEY ARE BACKING UP A LITTLE. MODELS
ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THESE CLOUDS...TRYING TO CLEAR THEM
OUT TOO FAST. WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOUDY TONIGHT FOR NOW AND TRY
TO SHOW A SCATTERING TREND BY AROUND THE NOON HOUR SUNDAY. ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES. THERE ARE
SOME FLURRIES HERE ON STATION AND SOME REPORTED AT A FEW OTHERS.
WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN THE WEST...WILL ALSO TREND
UP LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT THERE TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...
KEPT THE TREND OF EITHER STEADY OR SLIGHTLY LOWERING CEILINGS THRU
THE EARLY TAF PERIOD. DO NOT THINK THE FLURRIES WILL CAUSE ANY
REDUCTIONS TO VSBY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2008/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SHORT TERM. BASED CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
PREFER LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS FROM GFS AND WILL USE AS GUIDANCE FOR
CLOUD TRENDS.

REGION TO STAY IN SHARP MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO FA WHICH WILL FINALLY
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH. ALSO DRYING IN LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO SPREAD INTO FA FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL HINGE GREATLY ON DEGREE OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. WITH WESTERN AREAS SEEING DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND
WIND FIRST ALONG WITH DEEP SNOWPACK WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER. WARMEST MINIMUMS WILL BE OVER FAR EAST LAST TO SEE CLEARING
AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE
NORTH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SOLAR WILL
HELP GREATEST OVER SNOW FREE AREA WITH SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS
SNOW FIELD AND WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT OVER SNOWFIELD.

WITH HIGH CENTERED OVER FA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW FIELD AND WILL EXPAND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
FAR NW FA.

MID LEVEL SPLIT FLOW SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH FA UNDER NORTHERN
STREAM RIDGING. MODEST WARM ADVECTION DURING DAY ALONG WITH SOLAR
HOWEVER MIXING WILL BE LIGHT. BEST THERMAL RECOVERY WILL BE OVER
SNOW FREE AREAS AND WOODS AND WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT TEMPS IN
SNOWFIELD 5-10 DEGREE BLO GUIDANCE.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND RETURN FLOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL HELP HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP IN SPITE OF SNOW COVER. AS A RESULT EXPECT MINIMUMS
A LITTLE MORE UNIFORM WITH RIDGE AXIS AND CLEARING OVER EASTERN
FA.

WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASED MIXING WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY CLOUDS ON
TUESDAY SO WILL CAUTIOUS ON WARM UP. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE DOESN`T LOOK
TO AFFECT FA TIL LATE SO WILL KEEP DAY DRY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500 HPA TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS HAPPENS IS
DEPICTED DIFFERENTLY IN EACH MODEL...ESPECIALLY WHEN ANALYZING
SURFACE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...THEN DRYING OUT AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.
GIVEN LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES...KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVERALL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON

000
FXUS63 KBIS 082139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND
THUS THE RESULTING PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL UTILIZE A NAM/GFS BLEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN SASK/MANITOBA SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR...BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS
EVENING. PROBLEM WILL BE LATER TONIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE
MELTING TODAY AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP AGAIN.
CURRENTLY WE HAVE SOME FOG IN THE CENTRAL. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
WILL ALSO EXTEND THIS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY
PRETTY CLOSE. WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE CENTRAL THINKING
THAT WITH CLEARING SKIES...WE WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE ANY FOG DEVELOPS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE MAY SEE THIS SAME SCENARIO PLAY OUT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM EACH DAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP ADD MOISTURE TO THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER AND COMPLICATE THINGS AS FAR AS FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
RESULTANT TEMPERATURES...I GUESS WINTER HAS ARRIVED. THE SOUTHWEST
WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT BAND OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING WITH THIS IMPULSE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES SPRINKLES AS BEST
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF/GEM BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING A TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS
IT DOES THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP DUE FIRST TO THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH...THEN AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  CONSEQUENTLY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TRENDING
DRY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM SASKATCHEWAN
HAS CLEARED THE SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.  AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR GRADUALLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.  AT 330 PM CST CEILINGS
RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 THOUSAND FEET ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
THERE WERE CEILINGS BELOW 1 THOUSAND FEET IN THE BOWMAN TO HETTINGER
AREA. LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
MILE AT TIMES.  THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE SLOWLY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
TWH/TSW

000
FXUS63 KFGF 082030
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SHORT TERM. BASED CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
PREFER LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS FROM GFS AND WILL USE AS GUIDANCE FOR
CLOUD TRENDS.

REGION TO STAY IN SHARP MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO FA WHICH WILL FINALLY
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH. ALSO DRYING IN LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO SPREAD INTO FA FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL HINGE GREATLY ON DEGREE OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. WITH WESTERN AREAS SEEING DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND
WIND FIRST ALONG WITH DEEP SNOWPACK WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER. WARMEST MINIMUMS WILL BE OVER FAR EAST LAST TO SEE CLEARING
AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE
NORTH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SOLAR WILL
HELP GREATEST OVER SNOW FREE AREA WITH SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS
SNOW FIELD AND WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT OVER SNOWFIELD.

WITH HIGH CENTERED OVER FA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW FIELD AND WILL EXPAND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
FAR NW FA.

MID LEVEL SPLIT FLOW SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH FA UNDER NORTHERN
STREAM RIDGING. MODEST WARM ADVECTION DURING DAY ALONG WITH SOLAR
HOWEVER MIXING WILL BE LIGHT. BEST THERMAL RECOVERY WILL BE OVER
SNOW FREE AREAS AND WOODS AND WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT TEMPS IN
SNOWFIELD 5-10 DEGREE BLO GUIDANCE.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND RETURN FLOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL HELP HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP IN SPITE OF SNOW COVER. AS A RESULT EXPECT MINIMUMS
A LITTLE MORE UNIFORM WITH RIDGE AXIS AND CLEARING OVER EASTERN
FA.

WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASED MIXING WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY CLOUDS ON
TUESDAY SO WILL CAUTIOUS ON WARM UP. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE DOESNT LOOK
TO AFFECT FA TIL LATE SO WILL KEEP DAY DRY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500 HPA TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS HAPPENS IS
DEPICTED DIFFERENTLY IN EACH MODEL...ESPECIALLY WHEN ANALYZING
SURFACE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...THEN DRYING OUT AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.
GIVEN LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES...KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO DECREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00 UTC. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BEFORE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...BUT LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
VOELKER/ROGERS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 081609
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1005 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES.
BIG QUESTION WILL BE DEGREE OF CLEARING IF AT ALL. FROM VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY MID LEVELS DRYING/CLEARING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT
WAVE LEAVING RELATIVELY LARGE MVFR SC DECK FROM 010-020KFT. LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE (275K) SHOWING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND
DRYING THROUGH DAY. RUC SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW RELATIVELY
SHALLOW/MOIST LAYER AROUND 925MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S. FOR THIS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND SLOW
CLEARING. WITH CLOUDS AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TEMPERATURES
NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NW FA IN DEEP SNOW
PACK. LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR NW A FEW DEGREES OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING WINDS
LIKELY TO HOLD UP MOST OF AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP WINDS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT SNOW AT KBJI...REMAINDER OF TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS...IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC TONIGHT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. NORTH WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG...20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS...THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
VOELKER/ROGERS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 081030
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
430 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. WHEN
LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED IN N WI WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH W ND.
WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR...BUT
ENDED UP LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY HAVE
HAD THE BEST TRACK RECORD OF LATE.

WHEN LOOKING AT KMVX...STILL HAVE SOME RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER NW
AND WC MN...WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SNOW WITH VSBYS DOWN TO
NEAR 2 MILES AT TIMES. WITH MODELS SHOWING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUING TODAY AND SOME 850MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND 700MB LIFT CONFINED TO THE MN SIDE OF THE AREA...
WILL KEEP A SCHC FOR -SN IN PARTS OF MN UNTIL NOON...WITH FLURRIES
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AFTER 18Z TODAY...THE 850MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND 700MB LIFT MOVE E...SO JUST KEPT FLURRIES ON MN SIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME -ZL IN VCNTY OF DVL TO VALLEY CITY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM
SITES IN CANADA HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF -ZL...SO WILL INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY IN THE MORNING FORECAST.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING INTO THE N PLAINS TONIGHT
AND LINGERS UNTIL WED...KEEPING THE AREA DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW COVERED AREAS.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RN/SN TO THE N PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS IN SNOW BANDS. WINDS TO REMAIN FROM NW-N AROUND 15
KTS....WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
NG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 080928
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS
MAINLY ON DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY SO HAVE UTILIZED A GENERAL FORECAST BLEND.

CURRENTLY...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WRECKED HAVOC THE PAST FEW DAYS
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ND HAS FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
WHERE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION IN THE STORM`S WAKE...WITH ENOUGH PRESSURE RISES CENTRAL AND
EAST TO KEEP WINDS UP IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/WV SLIDING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT WE REMAIN UNDER
EXTENSIVE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER
ISOLD FLURRIES ALONG WITH A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
USING THE TOP-DOWN APPROACH...MODEL SOUNDING THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATING THIS IS NOT FAR FETCHED...WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN
THE 0 TO -10 CELSIUS RANGE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF THE
PRESENCE OF SUPER COOLED WATER AND THUS SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD FLURRIES AND
PATCHY LIGHT FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF MY COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TODAY AS THE EMBEDDED S/WV SLIDES SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
CWA. POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT MAY
BE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AM HOURS. WE REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING SFC HIGH PERSISTS. SOME RAYS OF SUN WILL POKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BETTER CLEARING POTENTIAL NORTH AND WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THESE PLACES. WILL UNDERCUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER OVER MY COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT KEEPING A
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT EAST WITH WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW
WEST. IN BETWEEN EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CENTRAL ALONG WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PROMOTING POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MY CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS
INTRODUCED PATCHY FREEZING FOG 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SUN
MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DOMINATING OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD ANY MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AT BAY
AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 AND
MORNING LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MAINLY
DRY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT CLOSER TO BEST RETURN FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THINK IT IS VERY WORTHWHILE TO CONTINUE FROM SATURDAYS DAYTIME AFD
IN MENTIONING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ANY
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SLOWLY MELT THE
SNOW COVER IN PLACE WHICH WILL REFREEZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS CAUSING UNTREATED SURFACES
TO BECOME SLIPPERY. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG CENTRAL TONIGHT WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SLICK ROAD SURFACES...ESPECIALLY OVER BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. NORTH DAKOTA DOT SENSOR DATA INDICATES THIS WELL WITH
ABOVE FREEZING ROAD SURFACE TEMPS DURING THE DAY...QUICKLY
REFREEZING AFTER DARK.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEASONABLE COOL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE IN EXTENDED WITH BOTH KECMWF AND GFS SLOW TO MOVE NEXT WEST
COAST LOW EAST. HOWEVER NO BIG EVENTS ON TAP AT LEAST THIS MODEL
RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKY CONDITION A MESS WITH IFR AND MVFR DECKS FLOATING AROUND.
WEATHER WILL ALSO CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH FOG AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

NH/HW

000
FXUS63 KFGF 080229 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
829 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...DRY POCKET ALOFT HAS MOVES SOUTH OF THE FA ACCORDING
TO 00Z RUC AND THIS CONFIRMED BY ALL SITES REPORTING -SN (NO MORE
-FZDZ). WILL CHANGE WX GRIDS TO ALL SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON.
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR WOULD INDICATE THIS TO BE THE
LAST BATCH OF PRECIP THAT FAR WEST. CANADIAN RADAR DOES INDICATE
SNOW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE FAR E FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TREND
IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN AN INCH. CURRENT DIURNAL TEMP TREND FITS WELL WITH FORECASTED
MIN T...EXCEPT SNOW COVERED AREA (DVL BASIN) WHERE TEMPS ARE A BIT
COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WILL LOWER MIN T A FEW DEGREES HERE.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT WITH SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM AND EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
COULD LIKELY SEE PATCHY IFR CIGS MAINLY EAST OF VALLEY. ONLY
POTENTIAL VFR SITES WILL BE AROUND DVL. RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY WILL
BE MVFR-VFR IN SCT SHSN...BR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
LINGERING POPS AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES.
GFS AND NAM IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SO USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BROAD SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...SUCH THAT IT IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAKENING MID-
LEVEL FORCING AND DECREASED MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT...WITH OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY AND THEN SLOWLY CLEARING SUNDAY. MAIN
IMPACT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY....YET REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING CENTRAL
CONUS MID LEVEL SPLIT FLOW WITH FA IN PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM
ZONAL FLOW. LOOKS TO BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES LATE...TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SNOW FIELD IN NW FA.
ONLY MINOR PCPN EVENT OF NOTE CONTINUES TO BE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
LATE IN THE PERIOD (THU).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG

000
FXUS63 KFGF 072343 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
543 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008

.UPDATE...FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED AT NUMEROUS SITES ACROSS
THE FA. THE FAR EASTERN FA STILL ABOVE 32F AT THE SFC...BUT EXPECT
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR
ALOFT...TYPICAL FZDZ SCENARIO. CURRENT OBSERVATION HERE AT THE
OFFICE IS DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. THUS...WILL UPDATE THE WX THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TO MENTION PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SNOW MIX. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS WITH ICY ROADS/SIDEWALKS. DRIZZLE REALLY
LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPS STILL WARM. (SITUATION WHERE CAR WINDOWS
WILL BE GLAZED BUT ROADS MOSTLY DRY).

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT WITH SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM AND EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
COULD LIKELY SEE PATCHY IFR CIGS MAINLY EAST OF VALLEY. ONLY
POTENTIAL VFR SITES WILL BE AROUND DVL. RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY WILL
BE MVFR-VFR IN SCT SHSN...BR AND BLSN OVER DVL BASIN...POSSIBLE
-FZDZ ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED ECHOS MAINLY SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE AND WEST OF JAMESTOWN...
AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. COMPARING
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS TO OBSERVED SURFACE WEATHER...THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THE RADAR IS OVER SHOOTING THE LOWEST PRECIPITATING CLOUD
LAYERS. AS SUCH...WILL INCLUDE THE SIX HOUR PERIOD PRIOR TO 00 UTC
TONIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON ZFP TO DROP POPS A BIT AND INCLUDE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST. AT MOST...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF SNOW...MAYBE TWO...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. OTHER AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH AT BEST AS MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STILL FALL AS RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PLEASE SEE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR STORM TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
LINGERING POPS AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES.
GFS AND NAM IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SO USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BROAD SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...SUCH THAT IT IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAKENING MID-
LEVEL FORCING AND DECREASED MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT...WITH OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY AND THEN SLOWLY CLEARING SUNDAY. MAIN
IMPACT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY....YET REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING CENTRAL
CONUS MID LEVEL SPLIT FLOW WITH FA IN PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM
ZONAL FLOW. LOOKS TO BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES LATE...TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SNOW FIELD IN NW FA.
ONLY MINOR PCPN EVENT OF NOTE CONTINUES TO BE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
LATE IN THE PERIOD (THU).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 072135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE ENTERING WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO
BRING BANDS OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THOUGH THE SNOW IS NOT AS HEAVY AS
YESTERDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND REDUCING
VISIBILITIES IN OPEN AREAS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE TO FLURRIES TONIGHT. PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL NUDGE SOUTHWARD
SCOURING OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER BY LATE SATURDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MONDAY THE CANADIAN HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. ANY
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SLOWLY MELT THE
SNOW COVER IN PLACE WHICH WILL REFREEZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH  LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS CAUSING UNTREATED
SURFACES TO BECOME SLIPPERY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGER SYSTEMS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM.  A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...AS THE SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA MOVES EAST THE STRONG
WINDS AND STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST WITH IT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KR/TSW

000
FXUS63 KFGF 072100
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED ECHOS MAINLY SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE AND WEST OF JAMESTOWN...
AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. COMPARING
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS TO OBSERVED SURFACE WEATHER...THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THE RADAR IS OVER SHOOTING THE LOWEST PRECIPITATING CLOUD
LAYERS. AS SUCH...WILL INCLUDE THE SIX HOUR PERIOD PRIOR TO 00 UTC
TONIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON ZFP TO DROP POPS A BIT AND INCLUDE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST. AT MOST...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF SNOW...MAYBE TWO...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. OTHER AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH AT BEST AS MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STILL FALL AS RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PLEASE SEE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR STORM TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
LINGERING POPS AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES.
GFS AND NAM IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SO USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BROAD SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...SUCH THAT IT IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAKENING MID-
LEVEL FORCING AND DECREASED MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT...WITH OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY AND THEN SLOWLY CLEARING SUNDAY. MAIN
IMPACT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY....YET REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING CENTRAL
CONUS MID LEVEL SPLIT FLOW WITH FA IN PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM
ZONAL FLOW. LOOKS TO BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES LATE...TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SNOW FIELD IN NW FA.
ONLY MINOR PCPN EVENT OF NOTE CONTINUES TO BE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
LATE IN THE PERIOD (THU).

&&

.AVIATION...

MOISTURE WILL BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT WITH SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND
EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LIKELY
SEE PATCHY IFR CIGS MAINLY EAST OF VALLEY. ONLY POTENTIAL VFR
SITES WILL BE AROUND DVL. RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY WILL BE MVFR-VFR IN
SCT SHSN...BR AND BLSN OVER DVL BASIN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

ROGERS/VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 071630 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1030 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE STORM SNOW TOTALS THUS FAR FROM MORNING REPORTS. FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA WAS HIT HARDEST WITH 12 TO 14 INCHES REPORTED
ACROSS WESTERN BENSON AND TOWNER COUNTIES...8 INCHES IN LANGDON...
3 TO 5 INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE...AND 2 INCHES NEAR GRAFTON. MOST
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY HAVE REMAINED ALL LIQUID
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.

16 UTC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO REMAINING PRECIPITATION BANDS. THE
FIRST IS ALL SNOW AND LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF LANGDON TO
CANDO/DEVILS LAKE AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST WEST OF JAMESTOWN. THE
SECOND BAND IS STILL A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN AND IS LOCATED
FROM THIEF RIVER FALLS THROUGH CROOKSTON TO JUST NORTH OF FARGO.
THIS SECONDARY PRECIPITATION BAND FOLLOWS THE SURFACE FREEZING
LINE QUITE WELL.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. WATER VAPOR AND GFS MODEL CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS
SHOWS MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AND TROWAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. AS SUCH...CURRENT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THERE STILL
SHOULD EXIST A NARROW AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AS RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS
MORNING AND UP TO 1 INCH ELSEWHERE THROUGH 00 UTC THIS EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18 UTC. WILL
SEND OUT UPDATED MORNING GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO COORDINATE
WITH EXPIRATION STATEMENT. MAIN CONCERN THEREAFTER WILL BE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW REGION-WIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...

RIBBON OF IFR CIGS OVER NW MN THROUGH VALLEY REGION. ADJACENT TO
THIS BAND SEEING MVFR CIGS WITH VFR PUSHING INTO DVL BASIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
TRANSITION OVER TO -SN THIS AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY WILL
BE MINOR WITH CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVING DURING DAY BUT MAIN MVFR FROM
VALLEY EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE SD MN
BORDER. MODELS WERE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. SAME BIAS NOTED WITH THE
MODELS AND THE SURFACE LOW. RUC WAS BEST WITH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
FEATURES. HOWEVER GFS HAS BEST MOISTURE FIELD CONTINUITY. WILL USE
THE GFS.

WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDED FROM LOWER MI INTO ONTARIO AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DROPPING PRECIPITATION UNDER 700
THETA-E RIDGE. 700 TO 850 CRITICAL THICKNESS WAS FARTHER EAST AND
WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING PRECIP CRITERIA THIS MORNING IN NORTHWEST
ZONES. CRITICAL THICKNESS AT 1000-850 HPA ALSO SLOWLY LOWERS TODAY
AS COLDER AIR SHIFTS EAST. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THIS
MORNING FOR WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOWS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE BC/AB BORDER
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST DAKOTAS SAT MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
OVER NORTHERN SK WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN SAT NIGHT. SHORT WAVE
MAY BRING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW IN EASTERN ZONES SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN ZONES RELATIVELY MILD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA HOWEVER A TROUGH AXIS
HANGS BACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MON. SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER RIDGE
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>029-038-049-052-054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ004-007.

&&

$$

ROGERS/VOELKER/HOPPES

000
FXUS63 KFGF 071038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
438 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE SD MN
BORDER. MODELS WERE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. SAME BIAS NOTED WITH THE
MODELS AND THE SURFACE LOW. RUC WAS BEST WITH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
FEATURES. HOWEVER GFS HAS BEST MOISTURE FIELD CONTINUITY. WILL USE
THE GFS.

WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDED FROM LOWER MI INTO ONTARIO AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DROPPING PRECIPITATION UNDER 700
THETA-E RIDGE. 700 TO 850 CRITICAL THICKNESS WAS FARTHER EAST AND
WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING PRECIP CRITERIA THIS MORNING IN NORTHWEST
ZONES. CRITICAL THICKNESS AT 1000-850 HPA ALSO SLOWLY LOWERS TODAY
AS COLDER AIR SHIFTS EAST. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THIS
MORNING FOR WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOWS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE BC/AB BORDER
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST DAKOTAS SAT MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
OVER NORTHERN SK WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN SAT NIGHT. SHORT WAVE
MAY BRING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW IN EASTERN ZONES SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN ZONES RELATIVELY MILD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA HOWEVER A TROUGH AXIS
HANGS BACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MON. SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER RIDGE
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. EXPECTED IFR BAND TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>029-038-049-052-054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ004-007.

&&

$$

HOPPES

000
FXUS63 KBIS 070958
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
358 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

FORECAST CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS ON THE REMNANTS OF THE WINTER STORM AND CONTINUING STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS/EC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE NAM TRENDS AWAY FROM THESE TWO SOLUTIONS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW HAVE MIGRATED INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MN THIS MORNING. TROWAL FEATURE AND DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVER CENTRAL ND REMAINS IN PLACE AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THE STACKED SYSTEM...TRIGGERING A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW STRETCHING FROM BOTTINEAU COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH
MCCLUSKY...BISMARCK AND INTO SIOUX COUNTY. THIS SUPPORT IS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES
SLOWLY EAST. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW (SUSTAINED 25 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH)...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWEST ND
WHERE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 15 MPH. THUS STILL GETTING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE MILE AND
BELOW AT TIMES AT OUR MAJOR OBSERVING SITES. CAN SAFELY GUESSTIMATE
VISIBILITIES IN THE OPEN COUNTRY ARE JUST AS BAD IF NOT WORSE. WILL
EXTEND CURRENT HEADLINES (BLIZZARD/WINTER STORM WARNINGS) UP UNTIL
16Z...THEN GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW 16Z
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 00Z. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DAY CREW BETTER
LEEWAY AND MORE TIME TO FURTHER MODIFY HEADLINES IF NEEDED THIS
MORNING.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WILL EXTEND CURRENT HEADLINES TO 16Z THEN
TRANSITION TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AFTERWARDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BUT MAY SEE SCATTERED MODERATE SNOWFALL YET THIS MORNING.
NO TRAVEL ADVISED OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND ATTM AS WELL ALONG
WITH SCATTERED ROAD CLOSINGS SO FEEL BETTER WITH SOME SORT OF
HEADLINE TODAY. EXPECTING VISIBILITIES IN THE OPEN COUNTRY TO BE LOW
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS PERSISTING AND EXISTING LOOSE SNOW COVER OF
FIVE INCHES UPWARDS TO A FOOT IN SOME PLACES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS SHOULD SEE TRAVEL CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND OUR
DEPARTING STORM...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
AND MORNING LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
MAINLY DRY AFTER TODAY WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING FLURRIES EAST
TONIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SOUTHWEST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO RETURN FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

LARGER UNCERTAINTIES HAVE RETURNED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. QUESTIONS
ABOUT EVOLUTION OF SPLIT FLOW OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL MAKE THIS A
DIFFICULT FORECAST AS THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS FROM ONE WITH
EAST AND WEST COAST MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TO ONE WITH LESS
AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW. THE MAIN DISCREPANCY DEVELOPS LATE ON TUESDAY
AS A REJUVENATING SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THIS RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT SPREAD...WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE 00 UTC
GFS TROUGH STRETCHING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TEXAS. THE 00 UTC
ECMWF IS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE...AND THE 00
UTC GFS IN ON THE EASTERN END. THE DIFFERENCE LEADS TO SOLUTIONS
BEING 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE. WILL ATTEMPT TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
IN GRIDS WHILE HONORING CONTINUITY UNTIL A CONSENSUS DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO MVFR AND VFR BY LATER IN THE
PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS
WINDS EASE AND SNOW TAPERS. CEILINGS SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME TREND AS
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND IT. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT TO
VISIBILITIES LONG AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT...SO WILL EXPECT SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES NEAR THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS
DECREASE.



&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ019>023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ018-040-043.

&&

$$

NH/SCHECK