000
FXAK67 PAJK 082215
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
115 PM AKST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...LOWER LOWS TONIGHT.  CIRRUS OVERCAST OVER MOST OF
FCST DOMAIN WILL SCT OUT THIS EVENING SO LITTLE HEATING TODAY AND

A HIGH RADIATIVE LOSS OF HEAT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY N OF
FREDERICK SOUND.  A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALOFT, DISCUSSED IN THE
NEXT PARAGRAPH, HAS HELPED GUIDE A 1000 MB LOW THAT IS ABOUT TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SFC LOW HAS PROVIDED N
WINDS ALONG THE PNHDL AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL DRYING.  THE
LOW LEVEL DRYING RESULTS BOTH FROM THE OUTFLOW OF DRY AIR FM THE
CANDIAN INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOWERING OF THE TERRAIN CROSS SECTION ALONG THE PNHDL FM N TO S.

THE STRONG AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALF EXTDG FM THE POLE AND S
ACRS BRISTOL BAY TO THE NPAC HAS TEMPORARILY LOST AMPLITUDE.  THE
GFS WHEN FILTERED FOR WAVE FIVE SHOWS THIS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
REGAINING ITS AMPLITUDE BY 12Z MON.  THE PRONOUNCED AMPLIFICATION
IS OVER THE CLIMATOLOGIC STORM TRACK WITHIN 600 NM S OF THE AK
PEN AND INTO THE GLFALSK.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS IN ZONES 26,
28, AND 29 INCLUDING PAPG, PAWG, PAKT, PANT, AND USING CZST TO
REPRESENT MISTY FJORDS.  THE GOES IR DOES INDICATE A DEFFORMATION
THAT SEEMS TO BE WEAKLY FRONTOGENTIC AND WILL HELP TO GEN THE
PCPN UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN A RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA
FM THE W.  THIS RIDG ALOFT IS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH.

ADDITIONAL DRYING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A 500 MB RIDGE THAT HAS
AMPLIFIED OVR THE CNTRL GLFALSK MOVES OVER THE ERN GLFALSK.  THIS
RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMOVE MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUD MASS OVER THE
PNHDL TONIGHT, SPCLY N OF FREDERICK SOUND. THIS CHANGE, ALONG
WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE PNHDL HAS LOWER DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT RADIATIVE FOG, AND FROSTING OUT WILL BE
THE MAIN PHASE CHANGE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
THROUGH WED BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. A FRONT WILL MOVE E AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH THE OUTER COAST BY EARLY MON MORNING BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN POPS TO THE PANHANDLE. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH STRONGER
AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS EARLY MON MORNING AROUND 49N/155W AND
MOVES NNE TO AROUND KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE MON NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH GULF AND REACH THE
PANHANDLE BY TUE MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN GOOD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT
TAKE DIFFERENT PATHS BY 00Z TUE. MODEL FLIP-FLOPPING CONTINUES AS
THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE STRONG TUE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE
THE 00Z RUN HAD IT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH PAFC, DECIDED THAT WESTERN TRACK OF LOW WAS
MORE REASONABLE. USED THE 12Z GFS TO UPDATE THE GRIDS THROUGH 00Z
WED AND LEFT THE REST AS IS.

THE STRONG FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GULF LATE
MON NIGHT BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS AND
GALES TO THE INNER CHANNELS TUE. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST STILL A
POSSIBILITY. FROM WED ONWARD, MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE PANHANDLE BY FRI AS THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING WEAKENS.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-036-042-043-051-052.


$$

JBT/MAM

000
FXAK69 PAFG 082208
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
108 PM AKST SAT NOV 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST TO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND
SUN AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS. TROUGH
WILL BUILD BACK EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON TUE NIGHT AND
WED MORNING PUSHING RIDGE INTO NORTHWEST CANADA.

A 978 MB SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO BRISTOL BAY SUN NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AND INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST AND BERING
SEA.

MESO LOW IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA LAST NIGHT DROPPED FOUR INCHES OF
SNOW AT GALENA. THIS FEATURE HAS FILLED AND FLURRIES HAVE RETURNED
TO THAT AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL BRING EAST
WINDS, PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES TO THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH MON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE EAST OF BARROW SUN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

RL NOV 08

000
FXAK68 PAFC 082134
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AKST SAT NOV 8 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW OFF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE AK PENINSULA IN BOTH POSITION AND INTENSITY.
EXPECTING ELONGATED LOW CENTER TO MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY
MIDDAY. AFTER LATE SUNDAY MORNING MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTION
FOR A NEW GULF OF ALASKA LOW.  GFS IS DEEPER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN
NAM...LEANING TOWARDS GFS AS IT APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT.


.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH EAST SIDE
OF TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. WILL
SEE STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  STRONG WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND ON THE KENAI PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT.


.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHWEST...IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS EXPECT TO START OFF WITH SNOW BUT
MIXING WITH RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. SHOULD BE WARMING FROM KING SALMON WESTWARD.
BETHEL ZONE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING BUT
BETHEL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME MODERATE
TO STRONG EAST TO NORTH WINDS SO VIZ WILL BE LOWER IN AREAS WITH
BLOWING SNOW. AWAY FROM THE COAST COULD HAVE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...WILL DEPEND ON MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE SNOW.

KODIAK...SNOW TURNING TO RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG EAST WINDS THIS
EVENING BUT SNOW SHOULD BE WET SO NOT EXPECTING ANY BLIZZARD.
FRONT SHOULD PASS OVER FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT WITH GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED RAIN AND SNOW OVER NIGHT
WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL...FRONT MOVES ONSHORE OVER KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG GAP AND MOUNTAIN WINDS AS PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
THE COAST.  EXPECTING STRONG WINDS IN PORTAGE AREA AND UPPER
HILLSIDE. WITH STRONG DOWN INLET FLOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
EXPECTING DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO UPPER AND MID
HILLSIDE...MIGHT SEE SOME MODERATE GUSTS ON LOWER HILLSIDE MONDAY
MORNING.  GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW IN UPPER AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
SNOW TURNING TO RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS NOTED THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP LOW IN THE GULF ON TUESDAY
WITH STRONG EAST FLOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW ALONG
THE COAST TUESDAY.  MODELS INDICATING DOWNSLOPING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.



.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES AND STORMS EVERYWHERE EAST OF 170W.
FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS TODAY.

JOHNANIMAL NOV 08

000
FXAK69 PAFG 081530
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
630 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UNABLE TO RETRIEVE MODEL SINCE RUN OF 12Z ON 07 NOV SO AT THIS
POINT NOT ABLE TO COMPARE MODELS BUT MODELS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR
THEN AND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ERRONEOUS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
THROUGH HAND ANALYZING SURFACE CHARTS HAVE A DECENT UNDERSTANDING
OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARCTIC IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS MOVES NORTHWARD. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
OVER BERING SEA TODAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER WEST COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO EXTEND TOO
FAR NORTH TO IMPACT WEST COAST OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

APPEARS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BE PUSHED
WEST AND OVER TAKEN BY BUILDING RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN PACIFIC AND
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL DOWNSLOPE THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AGAIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN ALASKA.

CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST SPREADING SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST.

A MESO LOW HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED TO NEAR EMMONAK. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CF NOV 08

000
FXAK67 PAJK 081455
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
555 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT
EASTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
INDUCING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE YUKON NORTHERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
ELSEWHERE A 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE PANHANDLE AND
ADVECTING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. IT IS SPREADING A WEAK FRONTAL
BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION BAND IS INDUCING PERIODS OF RAIN. THIS
FRONTAL/DEFORMATION BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NOT DISSIPATE TILL AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN GULF ADVECTS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE TONIGHT. THE
00Z AND 06Z MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD SO A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND WRF WAS USED...BUT
THE NAM AND WRF WERE WEIGHTED MORE AS THEY HANDLED THE POSITION
OF THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF BETTER AND THEREFORE
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTH.

 FOR TODAY NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO SUNNY AS DRY NORTHERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASING IN LYNN CANAL EXPECT SMCR WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITION NEAR SKAGWAY AND HAINES.
SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BAND REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CONCERNED THAT ALONG WESTERN KUPREANOF ISLAND NEAR KAKE COULD SEE
A LITTLE SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN THIS MORNING AS SKIES THERE HAVE
CLEARED MORE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER THE DEFORMATION
BAND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KAKE AND THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. ELSEWHERE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

 FOR TONIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGS TO
RELAX. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND DISSIPATE THE DEFORMATION ZONE
THERE...LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE. CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING NEAR LYNN CANAL AS THE DRY
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE WIND REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA IN UNDER WAY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. SHARPLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH LASTS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER WHICH IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...AND THEN TO A
MUCH GREATER DEGREE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. MAJOR MODEL FLIP-FLOPPING
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS IS EVIDENT EVEN IN THE GFS360 500H 5-WAVE. THE
00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED FOR GRIDS TONIGHT OWING TO LIMITED ENSEMBLE
STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE UPPER LEVELS. DISCOUNTED THE ECMWF
TONIGHT DUE TO THE MODEL CARRYING A MUCH DEEPER LOW MUCH FASTER
THAN GFS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY. COORDINATION WITH THE ANCHORAGE OFFICE INDICATED
SIMILAR THINKING BY THEM AS WELL. MAJOR GFS FLIP-FLOP OCCURS IN
THE 06Z MODEL RUN WITH A 981 MB LOW NOW BEING DEPICTED 475 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE SAME FEATURE IN THE 00Z RUN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE PAST TUESDAY MORNING NOT VERY
HIGH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY UPON REACHING THE
OUTER COAST ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG LOW WILL
ENTER THE CENTRAL GULF AND HAVE INCREASED WIND IN GRIDS
SUBSTANTIALLY TO REFLECT THIS WITH STORM FORCE SOUTHEASTERLIES
ENTERING THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST GFS
INCREASES THESE WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE AND MOVES THE AREA OF MAX
WINDS FARTHER NORTH...BUT IS BY FAR THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS
AND IS TREATED WITH GREAT SKEPTICISM AT THIS POINT. EVEN SO...WIND
ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 23 AND 27 LOOKING LIKELY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AT
THIS POINT AS WELL AS GALES FOR ALL OF THE INNER CHANNELS EXCEPT
LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY. POSSIBILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CHATHAM STRAIT AS WELL. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE KENAI PENINSULA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THINGS WILL CALM DOWN. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
NEXT LOW WILL UNDERCUT THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY AND SET UP
NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER CLARENCE STRAIT.

NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING...SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FAIRLY MOIST PATTERN SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEK BUT AT
THIS POINT NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-036-042-043.

&&

$$

PSS/FRITSCH

000
FXAK68 PAFC 081303
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT EVEN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS FINALLY SLOWING
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING A SECONDARY
LOW IN THE GULF BY TUE WHICH BRINGS IT MORE INTO LINE WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS.


.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST..PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. WIDE VARIATIONS IN
TEMPS EXIST WITH A TEN DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PORTAGE AND
WHITTIER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE LOW CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS BEGINNING TO BRING UP SOME PRECIP
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY INTO SOUTHWEST AK BY SUN EVENING AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE JET STAYS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH MID WEEK BUT A PERSISTENT PIECE OF IT WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWEST AK THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING EAST.


.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN STORY
IS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL BRING GALES AND
RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EAST TO THE AK PENN TODAY.
THE PRECIP WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO BRISTOL BAY WITH STRONG GAP WINDS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND AK PENN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM FORECAST...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW SPREAD OUT
THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE IN THE GULF. HOWEVER EXPECT GALES AND
STORMS IN THE GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW IN THE BERING SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH LOW STRATUS FROM THE PRIBILOFS WEST.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120 130 138.
         GALES 125 132 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW NOV 08

000
FXAK68 PAFC 072233
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST FRI NOV 7 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS, NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW THAT SKIRTS THE ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE ALL
SOLUTIONS FORM A ELONGATED LOW WITH THE NORTHERN HALF IN BRISTOL BAY
AND THE SOUTHERN HALF JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  THEY ALSO MOVE A LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING.


.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN `JET` IS OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY
BUT THEN WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN ENERGY IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.


.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE WEAKENING LOW THAT MOVED ONSHORE LAST
NIGHT NEAR YAKUTAT IS STILL PRODUCING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST BUT THOSE SHOWERS WILL END TONIGHT.  ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO STRATUS.  EXPECT SOME
50-60 MPH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN ZONES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEATHER FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN GULF SUNDAY SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTH TO EAST WINDS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE WARMING
IN THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BEGINNING MONDAY.


.LONG TERM FORECAST...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BERING. THERE IS
A REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE FOR A LOW TO MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW OVER A SIZABLE AREA OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES...130..132...138...172...170...171...155...150...165..
.160
FIRE WEATHER...NEGATIVE

JOHNANIMAL NOV 08

000
FXAK67 PAJK 072226
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
125 PM AKST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALF EXTDG FM
THE POLE AND S ACRS BRISTOL BAY TO THE NPAC WILL TEMPORARILY
LOSE AMPLITUDE TONIGHT AND SAT.  ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THIS
TEMPORARY FLATTENING IS A PATH CHANGE TO A 1000 MB LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY 600 NM S OF KETCHIKAN. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NNE, BUT WILL TURN TO MOV SE TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND SAT
AND PROVIDE A DRYING MECHANISM FOR THE PNHDL. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SENARIO IS GOOD, AND MUCH OF WHAT IS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT
TWO PARAGRAPHS ALSO HAS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADDTIONAL TEMPORARY DRYING WILL OCCUR DUE TO A 500 MB RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVR THE CNTRL GLFALSK SAT.  THIS CHANGE, ALONG
WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE PNHDL WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT RADIATIVE FOG TO PATCHY AT NIGHT AND
THE MORNING.  ALSO LIMITING THE FOG WILL BE A FROSTING OUT
OF THE LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR.

PATCHY FOG WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE CENTRAL ZONES FOR TONIGHT
AS TODAY WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH DRYG.  THE CLOUD COVER OVER
MOST OF THE PNHDL AT THIS TIME IS A ASSOCIATED WITH THE
A WEAKENING WARM FRONT OVER THE PNHDL.  A FRONTAL INVERSION ON
THE 12Z PANT RAOB WITH BASE AT 900 MB SHOWS A CLEAR SIGNATURE,
BUT THE MODELS ARE ACPTD AS SHOWING THIS FRONTAL BNDRY ALREADY
WEAKENING.

.LONG TERM...
A RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SAT EVENING WILL MOVE E
AND ACROSS SE AK SUN. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF SUN AND REACH THE OUTER COAST EARLY MON. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED POPS MON MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL ENOUGH OF A JOB TO WHERE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THROUGH MON. BEYOND THAT...CONFIDENCE GOES
DOWN WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SECOND FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH PAFC...BLENDED 12Z GFS WITH INHERITED PRESSURE
GRIDS BEGINNING 06Z SUN THROUGH 18Z MON. FROM
THERE...TRANSITIONED OVER TO HPC GUIDANCE BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND 12Z
WED. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS HOW STRONG WILL
THE SECOND FRONT (MON NIGHT/TUE) BE. THE FRONT WILL BRING GALES
WITH POSSIBLE STORMS AS IT MOVES INTO THE E GULF MON EVENING.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
BY MON EVENING WITH THE ADVISORIES PROGRESSING INLAND AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HIGH WIND
WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL ZONES MON NIGHT BUT WILL
WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO GET A BETTER CONSENSUS BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR
AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR
AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-043-051-052.

$$

JBT/MAM

000
FXAK69 PAFG 072216
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
116 PM AKST FRI NOV 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IN LOCATION OF FEATURES BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS AT
THE SURFACE. THE GFS HAS ALEUTIAN LOW 3 TO 4 MB STRONGER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. BASED ON THIS AND HOW WELL THE ETA MODEL HAS HANDLED
RECENT PAST SOLUTIONS WE WILL USE IT FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL
MOVE WEST OVER THE BERING SEA ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
EASTERN ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TO THE INTERIOR MON AND
TUE...BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A SURFACE LOW WEST OF CARMACK CANADA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING ENDING THE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND FAR EASTERN
RUSSIA WILL WEAKEN DIMINISHING THE STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG LOW MOVING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY NIGHT RETURNING STRONG WINDS TO WESTERN ALASKA
AND THE BERING SEA. ALSO PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW FROM BARROW WEST WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS LESSEN...DUE TO WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALONG THE ENTIRE ARCTIC COAST.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

RL NOV 08

000
FXAK69 PAFG 071500
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
600 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A MODERATE GULF OF ALASKA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING ALONG THE ALASKA YUKON BORDER. THE LOW IS WEAKENING
RAPIDLY BUT IS BRINGING SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. A WEAK LOW NEAR DEMARCATION POINT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER ALOFT THAN AT
THE SURFACE AND CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND OVERCAST
MARGINAL VFR WEATHER TO THE NORTH SLOPE. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IS
UNDER STRATOCUMULUS OVERCAST WITH FLURRIES.

THE NAM20 MODEL HAS HANDLED THIS WEATHER PATTERN WELL AND WAS USED
IN MUCH OF THIS MORNINGS FORECASTS. MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA AND CHUKOTA WILL INTERACT WITH THE INBOUND GULF OF
ALASKA LOW TO KEEP BRISK NORTH WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST MARINE AREAS.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM TANANA TO THE
UPPER NOATAK VALLEY, WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF
THE CREST OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. THESE FEATURES BROUGHT
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS OVERNIGHT, AND
THE WINDS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING. SINCE SUCH PATTERNS OFTEN
LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS, THIS MORNINGS
FORECASTS HAVE KEPT THE WINDS UP LONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE
MODELS.

NORTH GALES FROM POINT HOPE DOWN TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL
WEAKEN SOME THIS EVENING, AND ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP UP THE HIGH
SURF ON THE NORTH SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TODAY. SINCE
SAVOONGA IS ON A NORTH FACING CAPE, TO WHICH ONCOMING SEA AND
SWELL CONVERGE, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
SURF TODAY. GAMBELL WILL BE SIMILARLY AFFECTED, BUT IS LESS
EXPOSED TO SEAS FROM THE NORTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF NORTHWEST CAPE,
WHICH STOPS SOME OF THE INCOMING ENERGY FROM HITTING THE BEACH AT
GAMBELL DIRECTLY.

SEA ICE COVERAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE CHUKCHI SEA, SO
SNOW SHOWERS AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THAT AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

TF NOV 08

000
FXAK67 PAJK 071451
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
551 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE OLD LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE YUKON WHILE SHOWER OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVE
OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE IN THE YUKON IS GENERATING A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THIS TIGHT
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING WIND ADVY LEVEL WINDS NEAR PAGY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS NEAT PAHN. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON THE NE TRACK AND GRADIENT
WEAKENS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL ALSO
DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AS MOST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA BUT THE SHOWERS
WILL ALSO THE BECOME SCATTERED AS SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE. THE
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING DISSIPATE
AS A WEAK FRONT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC LIFTS INTO HECATE STRAIT
THIS EVENING TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SOME RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
LIFTS INTO DIXON ENTRANCE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLE THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING
LATE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THE WINDS OVER THE WATER WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT OVER NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM PICTURE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY IS BECOMING
MORE CLEAR. HOWEVER MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE
LONG TERM PATTERN IS EVEN MORE INCONSISTENT THIS MORNING WITH THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THE GFS 5
WAVE 500 MB HEIGHT SOLUTION ALONG WITH THE ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE AND REMAIN OVER THE ALASKAN
PENINSULA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR THAT WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS THAT
EFFECT THE PANHANDLE NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS PHASES THE
COLD AIR COMPLETELY INTO TWO SURFACE LOWS NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESPECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC RESPONSE.
THIS BAROCLINIC RESPONSE ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN TO
GALE TO STORM FORCE WITHIN THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS ONLY BRINGING WINDS UP TO
SMCR AND HAS WEAKER MORE DIFFUSE FRONTAL FEATURES. AFTER MIDDAY
MONDAY DID MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PACKAGE AS MODEL FLIP-FLOPPING
BRINGS CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE RAPIDLY BUILDING SURFACE LOW IN
THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS, THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY WITH THE MORE DIFFUSE SOLUTION AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE.

ON SATURDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL UNDERCUT THE PANHANDLE AND ADVECT
EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
BAND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A 1024 MB HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON
ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS WEEKEND SO DID UPDATE THE CURRENT PACKAGE TO TREND
TOWARD THIS DRY SOLUTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER MIDDAY MONDAY WITH THE LARGE
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS AND THE MID LEVEL CAA
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP
NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-036-041>043-
     052.

&&

$$

ABJ/PSS

000
FXAK68 PAFC 071424
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE SAT WITH THE INCOMING NORTH PACIFIC LOW
THAT IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NAM AND GFS STAY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET PUSH THAT
LOW ALONG MORE RAPIDLY. WE MERGED THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS TOWARD THE
NEW GFS SOLUTION. WITH REGARD TO CONDITIONS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND KODIAK ISLAND IN THE MIDDLE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS THE LOW THAT HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR
YAKUTAT AS A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MAINLAND
THAT IS DIGGING A TROUGH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SAT MORNING.

OUT WEST A LARGE BUT WEAK LOW IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND LATE SAT.

THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY
AT WHICH POINT THE JET WILL TURN NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE SNOW IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MOSTLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE GULF
COAST REGIONS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE COOK INLET REGION.

IN THE WEST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN AN ISSUE THIS MORNING FROM
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE COLD LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE PRODUCED DEEP STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
WE EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THEN MIX
OUT AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA REGION
WITH THE FRONT TO THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS IN THE LONGER TERM IS RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE CURRENT PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MAINLAND IN
THE COLDER AIR WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SAM NOV 08