000
FXUS62 KCHS 090202
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
902 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE W MAY INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD ON SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT W FLOW
MAINTAINING WEAK COLD ADVECTION. CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY THIS EVENING...GEOSTROPHIC WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL SLOW THIS TREND
SOMEWHAT. OUR FARTHEST INLAND ZONES WILL PROBABLY DROP INTO THE
MID 30S WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S
CENTRAL TO MID 40S COASTAL. PATCHY FROST MENTIONED OVER THE INLAND
AREAS BUT SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS
GO CALM EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE SUNNY
SKIES AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SUPPLYING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE WELL INLAND EACH MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD WARM NICELY TO NEAR NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...A WEDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH...
CAUSING OUR WINDS TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASING THE MOISTURE. STILL...A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT. I
THINK IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...HOLDING IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN THE GFS SHOWS. TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DEEPENS QUICKLY AND HEADS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM VARIES GREATLY AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS...SO I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE BASED
ON THAT UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF THE GFS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CORRECT
SOLUTION...POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL AT KSAV/KCHS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS COULD START TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
WED INTO THU...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS
OVER THE WARMER WATERS. UPSTREAM PRES RISES ARE WEAK AT 02Z. WE
THINK OUR FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY INITIAL TWEAKS THIS
EVENING. STRONGEST SPEEDS NOTED OVER THE 75 DEGREE SST AT BUOY 41004
THIS EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER OUR GEORGIA
WATERS TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES WITH JETTING...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT INCREASE...WITH
SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 082324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
624 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINING WEAK COLD ADVECTION. LITTLE
DEWPOINT RECOVERY ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...THUS LOW TO MID 30S
DEWPOINTS SHOULD PERSIST. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALTHOUGH GEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAMPER THIS SOMEWHAT.
OUR FARTHEST INLAND ZONES WILL PROBABLY DROP INTO THE MID 30S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S CENTRAL
TO MID 40S COASTAL. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS GO
CALM EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE SUNNY
SKIES AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SUPPLYING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE WELL INLAND EACH MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD WARM NICELY TO NEAR NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...A WEDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH...
CAUSING OUR WINDS TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASING THE MOISTURE. STILL...A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT. I
THINK IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...HOLDING IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN THE GFS SHOWS. TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DEEPENS QUICKLY AND HEADS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM VARIES GREATLY AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS...SO I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE BASED
ON THAT UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF THE GFS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CORRECT
SOLUTION...POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL AT KSAV/KCHS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS COULD START TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
WED INTO THU...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ABOUT
20 KT OF SW FLOW AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE. WILL CARRY 15-20 KT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY.
HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT INCREASE...WITH SCA SEAS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND
WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 082323
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
620 PM EST SAT NOV  8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
AROUND SUNSET. NEW AIRMASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT EARLY MORNING FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL
MS VALLEY. TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. POSSIBLE WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
GMOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY GFS INDICATES
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN
SITU WEDGE MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY ACCORDING TO
THE GFS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS GRIDDED VALUES WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADING
THE REGION HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL CONTINUE...SO NO FOG EXPECTED. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
6 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, THEN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10

000
FXUS62 KFFC 082226
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE LOCKED IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE IN STEP
WITH EACH OTHER BY KEEPING DEEP LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.  ZONAL TO NW FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR SOUTHEAST.  ALTHO STRATUS
POISED IN MID-MS VALLEY MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD GA...SUBSIDENCE
SHOULDN`T ALLOW IT TO GET THAT FAR.  MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION CU IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT IT FOR
CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS WERE TOO WARM LAST NIGHT AND...WITH
CONTINUED COLD/DRY ADVECTION...WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW MAV FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO
UPPER 20S IN N GA THIS AFTERNOON...SO COOLER MINS LOOK REASONABLE.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS.  NO POPS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS TRIES TO SPLASH SOME PRECIP INTO NORTH GA TUESDAY...BUT THIS MAY
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.  WILL INCREASE CLOUDS
SOMEWHAT BUT KEEP LOW POPS CONFINED TO THE NW CORNER.  WEAK WEDGE
PATTERN SETS UP MID-WEEK AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.  ALTHO THE NEXT WAVE
SHOWS A FAVORABLE TRACK AND DEPTH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY
IS LACKING.  THIS CAN CHANGE IN A HURRY IF SUFFICIENT HEATING AND/OR
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT CAN OCCUR WITH THE RETREATING /WEAK/
WEDGE. SHOULD SEE RAIN AREAWIDE...THOUGH.  WILL NOT ADJUST PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AS 12Z GFS NOT TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSH A WEAK DRY FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. A DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD. CEILINGS...SKC AT PRESENT. AS DEEP UPPER
LOW DIGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH SUN...SOME SC MAY WORK INTO N
GA...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ATL-AHN. OTHERWISE...SKC
THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD. VISIBILITY...VFR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
VERY DRY SFC AIR MASS AND NW WINDS WILL PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. WX...NONE. WINDS...SW-WSW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AND SHOULD BECOME MORE W-WNW AFT 06Z AS SHORT WAVE ROUNDS BOTTOM OF
UPPER TROUGH. ATL SHOULD SEE A 7-8KT WIND MOST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER
AREAS...SUCH AS FTY...MCN MAY DECOUPLE AND SEE CALM WINDS AT TIMES.
FOR SUN...WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS. OTHER THAN ATL...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH GUSTINESS...BUT ATL MAY SEE GUST TO 18KTS SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  63  34  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         41  59  36  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     32  53  29  61  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    34  56  30  62  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS        41  63  36  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     37  57  34  64  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
MACON           39  66  33  69  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ROME            32  58  29  62  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
PEACHTREE CITY  33  60  30  65  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         41  67  38  69  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

27/19

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081946
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
246 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINING WEAK COLD ADVECTION. LITTLE
DEWPOINT RECOVERY ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...THUS LOW TO MID 30S
DEWPOINTS SHOULD PERSIST. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALTHOUGH GEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAMPER THIS SOMEWHAT.
OUR FARTHEST INLAND ZONES WILL PROBABLY DROP INTO THE MID 30S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S CENTRAL
TO MID 40S COASTAL. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS GO
CALM EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE SUNNY
SKIES AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SUPPLYING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE WELL INLAND EACH MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD WARM NICELY TO NEAR NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...A WEDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH...
CAUSING OUR WINDS TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASING THE MOISTURE. STILL...A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT. I
THINK IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...HOLDING IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN THE GFS SHOWS. TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DEEPENS QUICKLY AND HEADS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM VARIES GREATLY AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS...SO I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE BASED
ON THAT UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF THE GFS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CORRECT
SOLUTION...POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS COULD START TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ABOUT
20 KT OF SW FLOW AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE. WILL CARRY 15-20 KT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY.
HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT INCREASE...WITH SCA SEAS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND
WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL/ALSHEIMER

000
FXUS62 KCAE 081927
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
227 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
AROUND SUNSET. NEW AIRMASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT EARLY MORNING FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL
MS VALLEY. TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. POSSIBLE WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
GMOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY GFS INDICATES
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN
SITU WEDGE MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY ACCORDING TO
THE GFS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS GRIDDED VALUES WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW GONE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNLIMITED VSBYS. EARLY ON UNTIL SUNSET...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST TO 18-20 KT. THEN WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KFFC 081926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE LOCKED IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE IN STEP
WITH EACH OTHER BY KEEPING DEEP LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.  ZONAL TO NW FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR SOUTHEAST.  ALTHO STRATUS
POISED IN MID-MS VALLEY MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD GA...SUBSIDENCE
SHOULDN`T ALLOW IT TO GET THAT FAR.  MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION CU IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT IT FOR
CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS WERE TOO WARM LAST NIGHT AND...WITH
CONTINUED COLD/DRY ADVECTION...WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW MAV FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO
UPPER 20S IN N GA THIS AFTERNOON...SO COOLER MINS LOOK REASONABLE.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS.  NO POPS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS TRIES TO SPLASH SOME PRECIP INTO NORTH GA TUESDAY...BUT THIS MAY
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.  WILL INCREASE CLOUDS
SOMEWHAT BUT KEEP LOW POPS CONFINED TO THE NW CORNER.  WEAK WEDGE
PATTERN SETS UP MID-WEEK AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.  ALTHO THE NEXT WAVE
SHOWS A FAVORABLE TRACK AND DEPTH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY
IS LACKING.  THIS CAN CHANGE IN A HURRY IF SUFFICIENT HEATING AND/OR
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT CAN OCCUR WITH THE RETREATING /WEAK/
WEDGE. SHOULD SEE RAIN AREAWIDE...THOUGH.  WILL NOT ADJUST PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AS 12Z GFS NOT TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS RUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  63  34  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         41  59  36  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     32  53  29  61  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    34  56  30  62  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS        41  63  36  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     37  57  34  64  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
MACON           39  66  33  69  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ROME            32  58  29  62  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
PEACHTREE CITY  33  60  30  65  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         41  67  38  69  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

27

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081733
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1232 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD
INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY TRAVERSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A THIN BAND OF L0W AND MID CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT.
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. WEAK POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND
74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT
1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS 08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED/THU.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCAE 081723
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1223 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT AT 07Z MOVING EAST OF AND AND AHN. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF CAE BEFORE 12Z. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACROSS
THE AREA...LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
COLD ADVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKY. WRF MODEL VAD PROFILE SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
SLIGHTLY DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN STATES SUNDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST
MONDAY. AIRMASS QUITE DRY. DESPITE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS MONDAY
TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS APPEAR TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. POSSIBLE WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE STATES. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW GONE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNLIMITED VSBYS. EARLY ON UNTIL SUNSET...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST TO 18-20 KT. THEN WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY TRAVERSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A THIN BAND OF L0W AND MID CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT.
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. WEAK POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND
74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT
1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS 08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING ON WITH CLEAR SKIES
RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LOWER THETA AIRMASS
POISED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
LEAVING A 115 MILE CLOUD BAND OF THICK LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST BY MID MORNING TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER. HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REFLECT
ONGOING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. WEAK POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND
74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT
1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS 08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KJYL/KAGS/KVDI/KAMG AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET INTO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL
FILL IN WITHIN THE HOUR. STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. OPTED TO LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM SINCE ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE OF VERY SHORT
DURATION. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING ON WITH
CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
09/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LOWER THETA AIRMASS
POISED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
LEAVING A 115 MILE CLOUD BAND OF THICK LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST BY MID MORNING TAKING WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER. HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REFLECT
ONGOING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. WEAK POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND
74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT
1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS 08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KJYL/KAGS/KVDI/KAMG AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET INTO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL
FILL IN WITHIN THE HOUR. STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. OPTED TO LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM SINCE ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE OF VERY SHORT
DURATION. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING ON WITH
CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LOWER THETA AIRMASS
POISED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
LEAVING A 115 MILE CLOUD BAND OF THICK LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST BY MID MORNING TAKING WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER. HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REFLECT
ONGOING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. WEAK POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND
74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT
1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS 08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KJYL/KAGS/KVDI/KAMG AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET INTO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL
FILL IN WITHIN THE HOUR. STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. OPTED TO LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM SINCE ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE OF VERY SHORT
DURATION. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING ON WITH
CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KCAE 081124
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT AT 07Z MOVING EAST OF AND AND AHN. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF CAE BEFORE 12Z. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACROSS
THE AREA...LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
COLD ADVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKY. WRF MODEL VAD PROFILE SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
SLIGHTLY DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN STATES SUNDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST
MONDAY. AIRMASS QUITE DRY. DESPITE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS MONDAY
TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS APPEAR TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. POSSIBLE WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE STATES. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THE DRY AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. STRONG MIXING AND MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS SUPPORT WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS AND
SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...JL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081121
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
621 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE WHILE STILL
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. RADAR COMPOSITES
INDICATE FRONTAL BAND SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE
EAST AND ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING DRY AIRMASS OVER EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THEN DROP ALL MENTION OF
RAIN CHANCES FROM THEN ON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO PUSH OFFSHORE A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
BAND PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. WEAK POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND 74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS
08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
TOO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KJYL/KAGS/KVDI/KAMG AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET INTO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL
FILL IN WITHIN THE HOUR. STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. OPTED TO LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM SINCE ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE OF VERY SHORT
DURATION. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING ON WITH
CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KFFC 081029 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A WEAKENING AND TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...TO NEAR AUGUSTA...DUBLIN...AND ALBANY IN
GEORGIA. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST
CENTRAL GA AROUND SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES...WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SOME OF THE LOCALLY
COLDER SPOTS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32
DEGREES POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED TONIGHT BY NORTHWEST WINDS...LIKELY REMAINING IN
THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN
SPITE OF SLIGHTLY WARMING H8 TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REBOUND
ON MONDAY AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A 100-KT JET OVERHEAD WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FAST WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...KEEPING AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE SOME
LOW LEVEL ASCENT FOR SHOWERS... MOSTLY TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH...BEFORE DIPPING BACK SOUTH INTO GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AND
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

MODELS DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS QUITE A BIT FROM THIS POINT ON AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO HANDLE A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW
OFFSHORE THE PAC NW. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SEVERAL OF THE
VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN THIS NEXT PAC NW
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE CROSSING AL/GA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS AND THUNDER MENTION ESPECIALLY IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAREFULLY...AS THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY.

07
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT MCN...AND BACK EDGE OF
STRATUS DECK SHOULD EXIT MCN BETWEEN 12-13Z.  WEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR
MORE NOTED AT ALL BUT FTY...THIS HAS KEPT PATCHY BR FROM DEVELOPING
AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FTY FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR VSBY AROUND
SUNRISE.  MODELS ADVERTISING THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIODS...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KTS...2KFT WINDS ARE NW AT 25KTS SO THIS FORECAST IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ONCE MIXING COMMENCES. WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...SO AFTER 00-01Z WILL FORECAST WEST WINDS 6-8KTS...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP BR FROM DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  41  61  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         65  41  59  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     61  34  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    64  35  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        70  42  64  39  67 /   0   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     66  41  57  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   5
MACON           70  39  65  35  68 /   0   0   0   0   5
ROME            65  37  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  65  35  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         71  39  68  36  68 /  10   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KFFC 080911
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A WEAKENING AND TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...TO NEAR AUGUSTA...DUBLIN...AND ALBANY IN
GEORGIA. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST
CENTRAL GA AROUND SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES...WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SOME OF THE LOCALLY
COLDER SPOTS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32
DEGREES POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED TONIGHT BY NORTHWEST WINDS...LIKELY REMAINING IN
THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN
SPITE OF SLIGHTLY WARMING H8 TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REBOUND
ON MONDAY AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A 100-KT JET OVERHEAD WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FAST WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...KEEPING AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE SOME
LOW LEVEL ASCENT FOR SHOWERS... MOSTLY TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH...BEFORE DIPPING BACK SOUTH INTO GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AND
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

MODELS DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS QUITE A BIT FROM THIS POINT ON AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO HANDLE A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW
OFFSHORE THE PAC NW. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SEVERAL OF THE
VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN THIS NEXT PAC NW
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE CROSSING AL/GA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS AND THUNDER MENTION ESPECIALLY IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAREFULLY...AS THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY.

07
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  41  61  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         65  41  59  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     61  34  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    64  35  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        70  42  64  39  67 /   0   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     66  41  57  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   5
MACON           70  39  65  35  68 /   0   0   0   0   5
ROME            65  37  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  65  35  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         71  39  68  36  68 /  10   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 080802
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
302 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT AT 07Z MOVING EAST OF AND AND AHN. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF CAE BEFORE 12Z. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACROSS
THE AREA...LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
COLD ADVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKY. WRF MODEL VAD PROFILE SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
SLIGHTLY DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN STATES SUNDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST
MONDAY. AIRMASS QUITE DRY. DESPITE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS MONDAY
TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS APPEAR TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. POSSIBLE WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE STATES. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS SHOW
FARTHER DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 12Z. STRONG MIXING
AND MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 080746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
246 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE WHILE STILL
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. RADAR COMPOSITES
INDICATE FRONTAL BAND SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE
EAST AND ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING DRY AIRMASS OVER EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THEN DROP ALL MENTION OF
RAIN CHANCES FROM THEN ON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO PUSH OFFSHORE A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
BAND PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. WEAK POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY PSEUDO DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 71 AND 74 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON PER NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VARIOUS
08/00Z MOS PACKAGES AS THEY HAVE ALL BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
TOO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS TAP INTO A BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AROUND 2000 FT.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE BUT MIXING
OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
RESIDUAL ISOBAR PACKING AND ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THUS CURTAILING
THE RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A FARTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME CO-OP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FROST BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEEK LEADING TO A DROP
IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT
AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TUE...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRES
AREA WILL BE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THUS...WITH THE LOWEST
THICKNESS VALUES SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND...MAKING FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CONCERNS FOR THE FAR
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING ENDED
ALREADY FOR JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...NO ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR THEM BUT MOST OF HAMPTON COUNTY ALONG
WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLETON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AREAS OF FROST IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS
DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIFIC FROST PRODUCTS ATTM BUT WILL
ADD MENTION INTO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE MIN TEMPS RISE FROM THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST SUN NIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUE NIGHT.

WED THROUGH FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA
COAST...WHICH MAY TO BE THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF INLAND HIGH PRES WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...MAKING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AM CONTINUING TO CAP POPS AT 30
PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WEDGE BUT ALSO PUSH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THEN AGAIN...OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
HOLD ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT AT MINIMAL
CHC LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS LOOK TO RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO CROSS THE TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LOWER AFTER 10Z...CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS ITS SPREADS EAST
SO DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID
MORNING ON WITH CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
LATER THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT ATTM THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THIS
WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS SUN-TUE...MAKING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUE INTO WED A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COMBINED WITH AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
ATTM...AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SCA WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHED OVER AT LEAST THE
OUTER GA WATERS WED-THU.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/JPC

000
FXUS62 KCAE 080526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT A SPLIT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MAY OCCUR AS
THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER
LOW...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA SOON AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AFTER FROPA...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATE. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS SHOW
FARTHER DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 12Z. STRONG MIXING
AND MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...JL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 080516
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1216 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRES. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE
W COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BAND OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND JET DYNAMICS IS PROGRESSIVE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE SE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS
NEARING AN ATLANTA-DOTHAN LINE. CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM FAR SE
ALABAMA TO NORTH GEORGIA HAVE BEEN LOSING INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT SOME SCATTERED MEASURING RAINS CONTINUE TO PRESS
QUICKLY TOWARD CENTRAL GEORGIA AT 02Z. 18Z MODELS MAINTAIN TREND
OF FURTHER DISSIPATION OF THE SHOWER BAND BY DAYBREAK SAT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WANES. PCPN TIMING SEEMS JUST A BIT FASTER
THAN MODELS PORTRAYED EARLIER TODAY...BUT OVERALL TIMING FOR OUR
FORECAST IS DECENT OVERNIGHT. OUR TRENDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND POPS AND
INCREASING CLOUDS ALL ZONES. TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCATIONS HAVE
DROPPED QUICKLY AND WERE NOT FAR FROM FORECAST MINS. WE SUSPECT
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SSW WIND WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
DIPPING MUCH FURTHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN COOLER
SPOTS AT 01Z SUCH AS NORTH CHARLESTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH-BASE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REDUCE THICKNESS VALUES BY ABOUT
14 METERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THEN BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING NW OF THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
POPS UNTIL WED...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO SOON. PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU WHEN A COLD FRONT TO THE W FINALLY PUSHES E AND COMBINES
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO CROSS THE TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. FRONTAL BAND CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LOWER AFTER 10Z...CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS ITS SPREADS EAST
SO DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. CLOUD CLOVER WILL DIMINISH FROM MID
MORNING ON WITH CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SW WARM ADVECTION LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE MARINE
WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WARMEST 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS BUT
A BIT LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST WELL OFF THE
COAST LATE.

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...W WINDS WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SAT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY SAT EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. NO FLAGS
ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SUN WILL SLIDE TO THE N MON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SLOWLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN SEAS...AS A NE FLOW SETS UP. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCA SEAS /6
FT/ OVER THE GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM OUT BY WED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KCHS 080223
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRES. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE
W COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...BAND OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND JET DYNAMICS IS PROGRESSIVE...MOVING
AWAY FROM THE SE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS NEARING AN ATLANTA-DOTHAN LINE. CONVECTIVE RAINS
FROM FAR SE ALABAMA TO NORTH GEORGIA HAVE BEEN LOSING INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT SOME SCATTERED MEASURING RAINS
CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY TOWARD CENTRAL GEORGIA AT 02Z. 18Z
MODELS MAINTAIN TREND OF FURTHER DISSIPATION OF THE SHOWER BAND BY
DAYBREAK SAT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WANES. PCPN TIMING SEEMS
JUST A BIT FASTER THAN MODELS PORTRAYED EARLIER TODAY...BUT
OVERALL TIMING FOR OUR FORECAST IS DECENT OVERNIGHT. OUR TRENDS
LOOK GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND
POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALL ZONES. TEMPERATURES AT SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY AND WERE NOT FAR FROM FORECAST
MINS. WE SUSPECT ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SSW WIND WILL KEEP
READINGS FROM DIPPING MUCH FURTHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
IN COOLER SPOTS AT 01Z SUCH AS NORTH CHARLESTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH-BASE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REDUCE THICKNESS VALUES BY ABOUT
14 METERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THEN BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING NW OF THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
POPS UNTIL WED...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO SOON. PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU WHEN A COLD FRONT TO THE W FINALLY PUSHES E AND COMBINES
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z/09. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WE COULD
SEE MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY 08Z-13Z...BUT CONFIDENCE
ON OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTIONS ATTM. THERE
MAY ALSO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE W
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING OF
CLEARING AND DEEPER MIXING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SW WARM ADVECTION LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE MARINE
WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WARMEST 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS BUT
A BIT LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST WELL OFF THE
COAST LATE.

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...W WINDS WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SAT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY SAT EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. NO FLAGS
ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SUN WILL SLIDE TO THE N MON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SLOWLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN SEAS...AS A NE FLOW SETS UP. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCA SEAS /6
FT/ OVER THE GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM OUT BY WED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 080141
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
841 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT A SPLIT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MAY OCCUR AS
THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER
LOW...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA SOON AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AFTER FROPA...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATE. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER...RANGING FROM 5 TO 8
THOUSAND FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VSBYS 5SM
TO 6 SM AND CEILINGS 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET FROM 06Z-12Z. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. A SOUTHWEST
WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 080108 CCA
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
808 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRES. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE
W COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW MUCH OF
THE VORTICITY ENERGY TO ERODE BEFORE MAKING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SCARCE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST...HOWEVER
COASTAL SECTIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE LATEST PROGS OF A QUICKLY DRYING COLUMN
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE 50S DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH-BASE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REDUCE THICKNESS VALUES BY ABOUT
14 METERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THEN BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING NW OF THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
POPS UNTIL WED...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO SOON. PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU WHEN A COLD FRONT TO THE W FINALLY PUSHES E AND COMBINES
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS AT
KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z/09. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WE COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS BRIEFLY 08Z-13Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SMALL WINDOW
FOR SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE W IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE SAT
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING OF CLEARING AND DEEPER MIXING IS
STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SW WARM ADVECTION LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE MARINE
WINDS TO 15-20 KT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SUN WILL SLIDE TO THE N MON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SLOWLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN SEAS...AS A NE FLOW SETS UP. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCA SEAS /6
FT/ OVER THE GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM OUT BY WED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KFFC 080039 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.UPDATE...
ISSUING UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER AREAWIDE FOR THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DOWN...ALTHO A STEADY PLUME OF SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FLOWING OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT.  HAVE ACTUALLY RAISED POPS
SLIGHTLY IN SE SECTIONS...AS I EXPECT THIS PLUME TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  LIFT DIMINISHES AFTER THAT POINT...SO
MID-RANGE POPS LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHEAST
CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRODUCING BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA...BUT THIS PRECIP HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA. MAIN
RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER SUNSET
ACROSS THE WEST...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. SO FAR
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA...BUT HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
CWA...AS 500MB VORT MAX SPINS THROUGH WEST GEORGIA TH EVENING.
EXPECT MOST THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH MAY
CUT OFF OUR ALREADY MEDIOCRE MOISTURE SUPPLY FURTHER. INSTABILITY
LIMITED...WITH CAPES BELOW 200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BASED ON PERSISTENCE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR VERY EARLY TOMORROW...AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDES INTO THE AREA UNDER MODERATE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE MAV...ONLY
ADJUSTING FOR LOCAL BIASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE...AND BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST AND MAYBE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA OUTSIDE OF THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON MONDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WILL HAVE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM A
ZONAL/SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE MERIDIONAL ONE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE IMPACTS OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN...AND LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING DEEPER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL FORCE MORE OF THE SHORTWAVES
NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AIR EARLY IN THE WEEK THAN PREVIOUSLY
PROJECTED. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVEN`T ADJUSTED THE EXTENDED
POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. LATER IN THE WEEK...THE MAIN TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH...ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE- WISE...DESPITE GENERALLY WSW FLOW
ALOFT...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY COOL 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS.

AVIATION...
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING MOVEMENT OF DEEP MIDWEST
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ACCOMPANYING SFC FRONT APPEARS
TO BE BACK IN N CENTRAL/CENTRAL AL. SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ABOUT
100-150 MILES WIDE...WITH THE BACK EDGE NEARING BHM. NAM A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN GFS AND MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR/OBS. CURRENT
TAFS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND THE EXPECTED
PATTERN. CEILINGS...MVFR CIGS ACCOMPANYING SHRA ACTIVITY. DO NOT SEE
ANYTHING WORSE UPSTREAM AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE
WEST WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AFT 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 06Z. VISIBILITY...VFR OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS.
MVFR...WITH BRIEF IFR IN RAIN AREAS. MOST AREAS FROM ATL-CSG-MCN
WILL SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR NEXT 3 HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRIER
AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR VSBY AFT 06Z AND FOR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID
PERIOD. WX...ISOLD TSRA NOTED BETWEEN CSG-MGM LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ARE NOT MAKING IT INTO FFC CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD
TSRA CSG-MCN AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. THREAT FOR
TSRA WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY NEXT 3 HOURS. WINDS...LIGHT SW OR CALM
WIND WILL BECOME W 5-10KTS BY 06Z. W-WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SAT...WITH SPEEDS 12-15KTS AND GUSTS 20-25KTS DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  65  40  62  39 /  50   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         47  64  41  60  40 /  30   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     41  57  34  57  31 /  20   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    42  64  36  60  33 /  20   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        49  70  43  67  41 /  60   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     46  61  40  59  39 /  30   5   5   5   5
MACON           49  70  41  68  36 /  60   5   5   5   5
ROME            42  64  37  61  35 /  10   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  44  64  34  62  34 /  40   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         54  71  40  68  38 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23

000
FXUS62 KCHS 072337
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRES. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE
W COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW MUCH OF
THE VORTICITY ENERGY TO ERODE BEFORE MAKING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SCARCE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST...HOWEVER
COASTAL SECTIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE LATEST PROGS OF A QUICKLY DRYING COLUMN
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE 50S DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH-BASE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REDUCE THICKNESS VALUES BY ABOUT
14 METERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THEN BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING NW OF THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
POPS UNTIL WED...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO SOON. PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU WHEN A COLD FRONT TO THE W FINALLY PUSHES E AND COMBINES
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS AT
KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z/09. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WE COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS BRIEFLY 08Z-13Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SMALL WINDOW
FOR SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE W IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE SAT
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING OF CLEARING AND DEEPER MIXING IS
STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SW WARM ADVECTION LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE MARINE
WINDS TO 15-20 KT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SUN WILL SLIDE TO THE N MON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SLOWLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN SEAS...AS A NE FLOW SETS UP. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCA SEAS /6
FT/ OVER THE GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM OUT BY WED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 072326
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 PM EST FRI NOV  7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPWARD APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH THIS FRONT AND
SREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SPLIT IN THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO
TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AFTER FROPA...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATE. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER...RANGING FROM 5 TO 8
THOUSAND FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VSBYS 5SM
TO 6 SM AND CEILINGS 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET FROM 06Z-12Z.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. A
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10

000
FXUS62 KFFC 072242
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
542 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS. DECREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE EAST. INCREASED POPS IN
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ZONES WERE FLARE UP OF SHOWERS IS OCCURRING.
NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHEAST
CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRODUCING BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA...BUT THIS PRECIP HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA. MAIN
RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER SUNSET
ACROSS THE WEST...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. SO FAR
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA...BUT HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
CWA...AS 500MB VORT MAX SPINS THROUGH WEST GEORGIA TH EVENING.
EXPECT MOST THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH MAY
CUT OFF OUR ALREADY MEDIOCRE MOISTURE SUPPLY FURTHER. INSTABILITY
LIMITED...WITH CAPES BELOW 200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BASED ON PERSISTENCE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR VERY EARLY TOMORROW...AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDES INTO THE AREA UNDER MODERATE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE MAV...ONLY
ADJUSTING FOR LOCAL BIASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE...AND BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST AND MAYBE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA OUTSIDE OF THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON MONDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WILL HAVE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM A
ZONAL/SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE MERIDIONAL ONE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE IMPACTS OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN...AND LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING DEEPER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL FORCE MORE OF THE SHORTWAVES
NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AIR EARLY IN THE WEEK THAN PREVIOUSLY
PROJECTED. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVEN`T ADJUSTED THE EXTENDED
POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. LATER IN THE WEEK...THE MAIN TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH...ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE- WISE...DESPITE GENERALLY WSW FLOW
ALOFT...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY COOL 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS.

AVIATION...
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING MOVEMENT OF DEEP MIDWEST
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ACCOMPANYING SFC FRONT APPEARS
TO BE BACK IN N CENTRAL/CENTRAL AL. SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ABOUT
100-150 MILES WIDE...WITH THE BACK EDGE NEARING BHM. NAM A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN GFS AND MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR/OBS. CURRENT
TAFS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND THE EXPECTED
PATTERN. CEILINGS...MVFR CIGS ACCOMPANYING SHRA ACTIVITY. DO NOT SEE
ANYTHING WORSE UPSTREAM AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE
WEST WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AFT 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 06Z. VISIBILITY...VFR OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS.
MVFR...WITH BRIEF IFR IN RAIN AREAS. MOST AREAS FROM ATL-CSG-MCN
WILL SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR NEXT 3 HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRIER
AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR VSBY AFT 06Z AND FOR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID
PERIOD. WX...ISOLD TSRA NOTED BETWEEN CSG-MGM LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ARE NOT MAKING IT INTO FFC CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD
TSRA CSG-MCN AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. THREAT FOR
TSRA WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY NEXT 3 HOURS. WINDS...LIGHT SW OR CALM
WIND WILL BECOME W 5-10KTS BY 06Z. W-WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SAT...WITH SPEEDS 12-15KTS AND GUSTS 20-25KTS DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  65  40  62  39 /  50   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         47  64  41  60  40 /  30   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     41  57  34  57  31 /  20   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    42  64  36  60  33 /  20   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        49  70  43  67  41 /  60   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     46  61  40  59  39 /  30   5   5   5   5
MACON           49  70  41  68  36 /  60   5   5   5   5
ROME            42  64  37  61  35 /  10   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  44  64  34  62  34 /  40   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         54  71  40  68  38 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23

000
FXUS62 KFFC 072236
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHEAST
CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRODUCING BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA...BUT THIS PRECIP HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA. MAIN
RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER SUNSET
ACROSS THE WEST...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. SO FAR
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA...BUT HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
CWA...AS 500MB VORT MAX SPINS THROUGH WEST GEORGIA TH EVENING.
EXPECT MOST THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH MAY
CUT OFF OUR ALREADY MEDIOCRE MOISTURE SUPPLY FURTHER. INSTABILITY
LIMITED...WITH CAPES BELOW 200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BASED ON PERSISTENCE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR VERY EARLY TOMORROW...AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDES INTO THE AREA UNDER MODERATE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE MAV...ONLY
ADJUSTING FOR LOCAL BIASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE...AND BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST AND MAYBE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA OUTSIDE OF THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON MONDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WILL HAVE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM A
ZONAL/SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE MERIDIONAL ONE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE IMPACTS OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN...AND LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING DEEPER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL FORCE MORE OF THE SHORTWAVES
NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AIR EARLY IN THE WEEK THAN PREVIOUSLY
PROJECTED. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVEN`T ADJUSTED THE EXTENDED
POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. LATER IN THE WEEK...THE MAIN TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH...ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE- WISE...DESPITE GENERALLY WSW FLOW
ALOFT...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY COOL 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS.

&&

.AVIATION...
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING MOVEMENT OF DEEP MIDWEST
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ACCOMPANYING SFC FRONT APPEARS
TO BE BACK IN N CENTRAL/CENTRAL AL. SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ABOUT
100-150 MILES WIDE...WITH THE BACK EDGE NEARING BHM. NAM A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN GFS AND MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR/OBS. CURRENT
TAFS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND THE EXPECTED
PATTERN. CEILINGS...MVFR CIGS ACCOMPANYING SHRA ACTIVITY. DO NOT SEE
ANYTHING WORSE UPSTREAM AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE
WEST WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AFT 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 06Z. VISIBILITY...VFR OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS.
MVFR...WITH BRIEF IFR IN RAIN AREAS. MOST AREAS FROM ATL-CSG-MCN
WILL SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR NEXT 3 HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRIER
AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR VSBY AFT 06Z AND FOR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID
PERIOD. WX...ISOLD TSRA NOTED BETWEEN CSG-MGM LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ARE NOT MAKING IT INTO FFC CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD
TSRA CSG-MCN AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. THREAT FOR
TSRA WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY NEXT 3 HOURS. WINDS...LIGHT SW OR CALM
WIND WILL BECOME W 5-10KTS BY 06Z. W-WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SAT...WITH SPEEDS 12-15KTS AND GUSTS 20-25KTS DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  65  40  62  39 /  50   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         47  64  41  60  40 /  40   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     41  57  34  57  31 /  50   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    42  64  36  60  33 /  30   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        49  70  43  67  41 /  50   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     46  61  40  59  39 /  50   5   5   5   5
MACON           49  70  41  68  36 /  50   5   5   5   5
ROME            42  64  37  61  35 /  20   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  44  64  34  62  34 /  50   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         54  71  41  68  38 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/19

000
FXUS62 KCHS 072003
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
303 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW MUCH OF
THE VORTICITY ENERGY TO ERODE BEFORE MAKING IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET
DIVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SCARCE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXIST...HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE LATEST PROGS OF A QUICKLY
DRYING COLUMN AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE 50S DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH-BASE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REDUCE THICKNESS VALUES BY ABOUT
14 METERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THEN BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING NW OF THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
POPS UNTIL WED...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO SOON. PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU WHEN A COLD FRONT TO THE W FINALLY PUSHES E AND COMBINES
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KSAV FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SW WARM ADVECTION LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE MARINE
WINDS TO 15-20 KTS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SUN WILL SLIDE TO THE N MON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SLOWLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN SEAS...AS A NE FLOW SETS UP. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCA SEAS /6
FT/ OVER THE GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM OUT BY WED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL/RJB

000
FXUS62 KCAE 071919
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
219 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPWARD APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH THIS FRONT AND
SREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SPLIT IN THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO
TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AFTER FROPA...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATE. GFS
INDICATING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SURFACE SYSTEMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE IN SITU WEDGE BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF SHORE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 08Z TO 09Z SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE FORECAST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL AS THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS. THE CHANCE OF FOG IS ALSO LIMITED
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING LIMITED AND A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 5
KNOTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY SO NO MENTION OF FOG WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.


NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KFFC 071916
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHEAST
CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRODUCING BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA...BUT THIS PRECIP HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS
IT APPROACHES THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA. MAIN RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. SO FAR CONVECTION
HAS REMAINED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA...BUT HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...AS
500MB VORT MAX SPINS THROUGH WEST GEORGIA TH EVENING. EXPECT MOST
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH MAY CUT OFF
OUR ALREADY MEDIOCRE MOISTURE SUPPLY FURTHER. INSTABILITY
LIMITED...WITH CAPES BELOW 200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. KEPT HIGH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE COOLER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BASED ON PERSISTENCE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR VERY EARLY TOMORROW...AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDES INTO THE AREA UNDER MODERATE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE MAV...ONLY
ADJUSTING FOR LOCAL BIASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE...AND BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST AND MAYBE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA OUTSIDE OF THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON MONDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WILL HAVE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM A
ZONAL/SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE MERIDIONAL ONE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE IMPACTS OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN...AND LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING DEEPER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL FORCE MORE OF THE SHORTWAVES
NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AIR EARLY IN THE WEEK THAN PREVIOUSLY
PROJECTED. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVEN`T ADJUSTED THE EXTENDED
POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. LATER IN THE WEEK...THE MAIN TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH...ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE- WISE...DESPITE GENERALLY WSW FLOW
ALOFT...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY COOL 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  65  40  62  39 /  50   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         47  64  41  60  40 /  40   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     41  57  34  57  31 /  50   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    42  64  36  60  33 /  30   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        49  70  43  67  41 /  50   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     46  61  40  59  39 /  50   5   5   5   5
MACON           49  70  41  68  36 /  50   5   5   5   5
ROME            42  64  37  61  35 /  20   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  44  64  34  62  34 /  50   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         54  71  41  68  38 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23

000
FXUS62 KCAE 071803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
103 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN TODAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED/NARROW BAND WITH THIS FRONT
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS/SREF ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS/GA
CSRA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIMITED...POSSIBLE GULF COAST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY LIMIT RAIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LOOKS GOOD. WILL KEEP LOW QPF VALUES AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO REMOVED
POPS AFTER 12Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE HIGHER TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...OTHERWISE TEMP GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS
SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE FIRST SYSTEM A BIT AND BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS...
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF SHORE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 08Z TO 09Z SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE FORECAST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL AS THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS. THE CHANCE OF FOG IS ALSO LIMITED
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING LIMITED AND A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 5
KNOTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY SO NO MENTION OF FOG WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.


NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...12

000
FXUS62 KCHS 071749
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE TODAY WHILE A
WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ALOFT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
PRODUCE A SUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHILE UNSEASONABLY HIGH
THICKNESSES SHOULD YIELD A WARM DAY. THICKNESSES OFF THE MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ON
TARGET TO MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ESTABLISHED PRE-
FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET. WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGE COUPLED WITH MEAGER
UPPER SUPPORT AND A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HUGGING THE GULF
COAST WILL YIELD FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. IN FACT NONE OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST JUST YET BUT IT CERTAINLY SEEMS TO
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT KEEP THE COASTAL ZONES DRY FOR
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY IMPRESSIVE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADS TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ONE THAT WILL NOW RUN
DRY. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS BUT STILL DIFFER IN SOME
SMALLER SCALE AND TIMING DETAILS BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NARROW THINGS
DOWN A BIT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUE. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...ITS NARROW MOISTURE SWATH BECOMES FURTHER DRIED UP AND
ITS PARENT SFC LOW PRES SYS AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL LOW BECOME WELL
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST THUS LEAVING THE FRONT WITH LITTLE PUNCH
TO DEVELOP ANY PRECIP. WITH ALL SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING A DRY
FCST FOR SAT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AND RUN WITH A
SILENT 10 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WITH THE FRONT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
SAT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SRN ROCKIES MON WILL SHIFT ENE THROUGH THE
MID MISS VALLEY TUE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BY WED NIGHT...A SEPARATE LOW PRES
CENTER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND
THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU ACRS
THE SE STATES. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPS...IT WILL
BE USHERED E VIA A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SE STATES BY BRINGING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...HAVE HELD
POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THAT TIME.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KSAV FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LOWER. WINDS COULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BEST SURGING LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE WINDS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT.
EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE N THROUGH TUE. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MISS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT E AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES BUT WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT...HAVE KEPT CONDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 071533
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1033 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE TODAY WHILE A
WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ALOFT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
PRODUCE A SUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHILE UNSEASONABLY HIGH
THICKNESSES SHOULD YIELD A WARM DAY. THICKNESSES OFF THE MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ON
TARGET TO MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ESTABLISHED PRE-
FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET. WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGE COUPLED WITH MEAGER
UPPER SUPPORT AND A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HUGGING THE GULF
COAST WILL YIELD FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. IN FACT NONE OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST JUST YET BUT IT CERTAINLY SEEMS TO
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT KEEP THE COASTAL ZONES DRY FOR
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY IMPRESSIVE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADS TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ONE THAT WILL NOW RUN
DRY. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS BUT STILL DIFFER IN SOME
SMALLER SCALE AND TIMING DETAILS BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NARROW THINGS
DOWN A BIT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUE. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...ITS NARROW MOISTURE SWATH BECOMES FURTHER DRIED UP AND
ITS PARENT SFC LOW PRES SYS AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL LOW BECOME WELL
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST THUS LEAVING THE FRONT WITH LITTLE PUNCH
TO DEVELOP ANY PRECIP. WITH ALL SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING A DRY
FCST FOR SAT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AND RUN WITH A
SILENT 10 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WITH THE FRONT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
SAT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SRN ROCKIES MON WILL SHIFT ENE THROUGH THE
MID MISS VALLEY TUE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BY WED NIGHT...A SEPARATE LOW PRES
CENTER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND
THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU ACRS
THE SE STATES. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPS...IT WILL
BE USHERED E VIA A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SE STATES BY BRINGING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...HAVE HELD
POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THAT TIME.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KSAV FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEING TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LOWER. WINDS COULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BEST SURGING LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE WINDS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT.
EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE N THROUGH TUE. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MISS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT E AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES BUT WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT...HAVE KEPT CONDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCAE 071129
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN TODAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED/NARROW BAND WITH THIS FRONT
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS/SREF ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS/GA
CSRA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIMITED...POSSIBLE GULF COAST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY LIMIT RAIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LOOKS GOOD. WILL KEEP LOW QPF VALUES AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO REMOVED
POPS AFTER 12Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE HIGHER TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...OTHERWISE TEMP GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS
SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE FIRST SYSTEM A BIT AND BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS...
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND HAS HELPED CAUSE AREAS
OF IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NEAR THE RIVERS. HEATING AND
MIXING SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MAV AND MET MOS AND CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY.
CONTINUED MIXING BECAUSE OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG. THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. USED THE MAV AND MET MOS AND FORECASTED
JUST AN VFR CEILING BEGINNING AROUND 06Z.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...JL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 071113
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
613 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING PER RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES-12 FOG
PRODUCTS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY/SHALLOW
GROUND FOG NEAR RIVERS...SWAMPS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE ITS OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARM AND DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE
VARIOUS MOS PACKAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WARM BIAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND PREFER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER DERIVED TEMPERATURES
FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND FULL SUN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES. WILL
FORECAST HIGHS 75 TO 78 WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S AND WEAK RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE A COOLING INFLUENCE. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SUNNY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A SIMILAR DEWPOINT REGIME IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ON
TARGET TO MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ESTABLISHED PRE-
FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET. WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGE COUPLED WITH MEAGER
UPPER SUPPORT AND A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HUGGING THE GULF
COAST WILL YIELD FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. IN FACT NONE OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST JUST YET BUT IT CERTAINLY SEEMS TO
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT KEEP THE COASTAL ZONES DRY FOR
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY IMPRESSIVE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADS TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ONE THAT WILL NOW RUN
DRY. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS BUT STILL DIFFER IN SOME
SMALLER SCALE AND TIMING DETAILS BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NARROW THINGS
DOWN A BIT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUE. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...ITS NARROW MOISTURE SWATH BECOMES FURTHER DRIED UP AND
ITS PARENT SFC LOW PRES SYS AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL LOW BECOME WELL
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST THUS LEAVING THE FRONT WITH LITTLE PUNCH
TO DEVELOP ANY PRECIP. WITH ALL SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING A DRY
FCST FOR SAT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AND RUN WITH A
SILENT 10 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WITH THE FRONT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
SAT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SRN ROCKIES MON WILL SHIFT ENE THROUGH THE
MID MISS VALLEY TUE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BY WED NIGHT...A SEPARATE LOW PRES
CENTER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND
THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU ACRS
THE SE STATES. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPS...IT WILL
BE USHERED E VIA A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SE STATES BY BRINGING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...HAVE HELD
POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THAT TIME.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KSAV RECENTLY REPORTED SHALLOW GROUND FOG SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z AS THIS
FOG LAYER LIFTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KSAV
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEING TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE MVFR
CEILINGS AFTER 09Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LOWER. WINDS COULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BEST SURGING LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE WINDS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT.
EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE N THROUGH TUE. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MISS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT E AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES BUT WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT...HAVE KEPT CONDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KFFC 071033 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER NWRN AL AND MIDDLE TN IS SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER GA WILL EXIT THE STATE TODAY...ALLOWING THOSE SHOWERS TO
REACH NWRN GA LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AXIS OF
MINIMAL (LESS THAN 200 J/KG) INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FADING AS IT ENTERS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS SURFACE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE AS THEY TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING. ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS A
MARKEDLY COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT.
H8 TEMPERATURES FALL ABOUT 8-13 DEG C FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH EARLY A.M. FROST/LOCAL FREEZE POTENTIAL
RETURNING BY THEN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOLEST LOWS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SLIDING OVERHEAD...
ALLOWING FOR THE MOST OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE A PROGRESSIVE ONE WITH A STRONG
100-KT NORTHERN STREAM SYNCING UP WITH THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM
JET EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN AND
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 18Z GFS INDICATE A FAIRLY POTENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OR SERN STATES IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THESE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. NUDGED FORWARD THUNDER MENTION TO AFTER
DAYTIME ON THURSDAY...CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
MODELS/ENSEMBLES.

RRH
&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH USUAL SITES
HINTING AT MVFR VISIBILITIES AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING.  MODELS SHOWING CEILINGS FLIRTING WITH MVFR HEIGHTS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AROUND 17Z AT CSG...BY 20Z AT ATL
AREA/MCN AND 22Z AT AHN.  3-4KFT CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO 9KFT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BY 05Z AT ALL SITES.  EXPECT ONLY A NARROW
LINE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
22Z-04Z.  WEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY 16Z...THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 03Z AND REMAIN NEAR 7 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  48  68  40  63 /  30  50   5   5   5
ATLANTA         72  47  65  41  61 /  50  50   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     66  41  59  34  55 /  60  60   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    69  42  63  36  60 /  70  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        73  51  72  45  66 /  30  50   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     68  47  64  40  58 /  50  50   5   5   5
MACON           77  49  71  42  66 /  10  50   5   5   5
ROME            67  45  66  37  60 /  70  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  71  44  68  35  62 /  40  50   5   5   5
VIDALIA         79  52  71  40  67 /   0  30   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KFFC 070818
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
318 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER NWRN AL AND MIDDLE TN IS SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER GA WILL EXIT THE STATE TODAY...ALLOWING THOSE SHOWERS TO
REACH NWRN GA LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AXIS OF
MINIMAL (LESS THAN 200 J/KG) INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FADING AS IT ENTERS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS SURFACE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE AS THEY TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING. ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS A
MARKEDLY COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT.
H8 TEMPERATURES FALL ABOUT 8-13 DEG C FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH EARLY A.M. FROST/LOCAL FREEZE POTENTIAL
RETURNING BY THEN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOLEST LOWS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SLIDING OVERHEAD...
ALLOWING FOR THE MOST OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE A PROGRESSIVE ONE WITH A STRONG
100-KT NORTHERN STREAM SYNCING UP WITH THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM
JET EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN AND
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 18Z GFS INDICATE A FAIRLY POTENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OR SERN STATES IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THESE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. NUDGED FORWARD THUNDER MENTION TO AFTER
DAYTIME ON THURSDAY...CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
MODELS/ENSEMBLES.

RRH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  48  68  40  63 /  30  50   5   5   5
ATLANTA         72  47  65  41  61 /  50  50   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     66  41  59  34  55 /  60  60   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    69  42  63  36  60 /  70  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        73  51  72  45  66 /  30  50   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     68  47  64  40  58 /  50  50   5   5   5
MACON           77  49  71  42  66 /  10  50   5   5   5
ROME            67  45  66  37  60 /  70  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  71  44  68  35  62 /  40  50   5   5   5
VIDALIA         79  52  71  40  67 /   0  30   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 070748
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
248 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING PER RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES-12 FOG
PRODUCTS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY/SHALLOW
GROUND FOG NEAR RIVERS...SWAMPS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE ITS OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARM AND DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE
VARIOUS MOS PACKAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WARM BIAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND PREFER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER DERIVED TEMPERATURES
FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND FULL SUN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES. WILL
FORECAST HIGHS 75 TO 78 WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S AND WEAK RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE A COOLING INFLUENCE. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SUNNY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A SIMILAR DEWPOINT REGIME IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ON
TARGET TO MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ESTABLISHED PRE-
FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET. WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGE COUPLED WITH MEAGER
UPPER SUPPORT AND A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HUGGING THE GULF
COAST WILL YIELD FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. IN FACT NONE OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST JUST YET BUT IT CERTAINLY SEEMS TO
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT KEEP THE COASTAL ZONES DRY FOR
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY IMPRESSIVE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADS TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ONE THAT WILL NOW RUN
DRY. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS BUT STILL DIFFER IN SOME
SMALLER SCALE AND TIMING DETAILS BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NARROW THINGS
DOWN A BIT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUE. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...ITS NARROW MOISTURE SWATH BECOMES FURTHER DRIED UP AND
ITS PARENT SFC LOW PRES SYS AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL LOW BECOME WELL
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST THUS LEAVING THE FRONT WITH LITTLE PUNCH
TO DEVELOP ANY PRECIP. WITH ALL SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING A DRY
FCST FOR SAT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AND RUN WITH A
SILENT 10 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WITH THE FRONT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
SAT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SRN ROCKIES MON WILL SHIFT ENE THROUGH THE
MID MISS VALLEY TUE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BY WED NIGHT...A SEPARATE LOW PRES
CENTER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND
THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU ACRS
THE SE STATES. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPS...IT WILL
BE USHERED E VIA A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SE STATES BY BRINGING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...HAVE HELD
POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THAT TIME.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT CALL ON THE FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GROUND FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT THE SHALLOW AND
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE VARIOUS FOG LAYERS SUGGESTS TAKING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. WILL KEEP OUR PREVIOUS IDEA OF A BRIEF STINT OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KCHS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT SHOW A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR AT KSAV WITH ONLY A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR BETWEEN 11-12Z. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL AS THE FOG LAYERS BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THE DURATIONS APPEAR TO SHORT TO JUSTIFY
A MENTION ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AS THE FOG
BURNS OFF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LOWER. WINDS COULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BEST SURGING LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE WINDS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT.
EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE N THROUGH TUE. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MISS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT E AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES BUT WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT...HAVE KEPT CONDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/JPC

000
FXUS62 KCAE 070743
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
243 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN TODAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED/NARROW BAND WITH THIS FRONT
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS/SREF ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS/GA
CSRA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIMITED...POSSIBLE GULF COAST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY LIMIT RAIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LOOKS GOOD. WILL KEEP LOW QPF VALUES AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO REMOVED
POPS AFTER 12Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE HIGHER TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...OTHERWISE TEMP GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS
SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE FIRST SYSTEM A BIT AND BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS...
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT
AREAS OF IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NEAR THE RIVERS. USED
THE MAV LAMP GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MAINLY IFR AT AGS AND OGB...AND
MVFR ELSEWHERE EARLY. HEATING AND MIXING SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAV AND
MET MOS AND CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 070531
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1231 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER HAS ARRIVED IN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. SHOULD BE ANOTHER EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG INVERSIONS
ALREADY ESTABLISHED...CONFIRMED BY GOES SATELLITE SOUNDINGS. HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL IN THE UPPER 70S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE BEGINNING TO LOOK A
BIT LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHORT RANGE MODELS/SREF ENSEMBLES
SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS/GA CSRA. WILL KEEP TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THE
FRONT. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS
SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE FIRST SYSTEM A BIT AND BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS...
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT
AREAS OF IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NEAR THE RIVERS. USED
THE MAV LAMP GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MAINLY IFR AT AGS AND OGB...AND
MVFR ELSEWHERE EARLY. HEATING AND MIXING SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAV AND
MET MOS AND CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...JL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 070519
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1219 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY
A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT/PERSISTENT W/SW SURFACE WINDS
AND 15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WEAKER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS
MAY ALLOW PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40AS INLAND TO THE UPPER
50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...DESPITE BEING GRADUALLY PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN WHILE PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT REDUCED POP VALUES IN CONSIDERATION OF THE WIDESPREAD
DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT TAP INTO
GULF OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON COUNTY IN SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CANDLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SAT THROUGH MON. AS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MON INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA WILL REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE
AREA OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR W WILL MOVE INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NE STATES.
THIS SETUP WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT OUT OF SRN SC/SE
GA AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS TUE THROUGH
FRI.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT CALL ON THE FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GROUND FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT THE SHALLOW AND
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE VARIOUS FOG LAYERS SUGGESTS TAKING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. WILL KEEP OUR PREVIOUS IDEA OF A BRIEF STINT OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KCHS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT SHOW A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR AT KSAV WITH ONLY A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR BETWEEN 11-12Z. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL AS THE FOG LAYERS BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THE DURATIONS APPEAR TO SHORT TO JUSTIFY
A MENTION ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AS THE FOG
BURNS OFF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INLAND SOUTHERN
GA...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND AS HIGH AS 4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL INCLUDE A 2 TO 3
FT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL THUS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. SINCE LATEST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BE WEAKENING DURING ITS APPROACH...THE SUBSEQUENT SURGE IN WIND
SPEEDS HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN A BIT. STILL DO NOT EXPECT WINDS OR
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS BEGINNING TUE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST

000
FXUS62 KFFC 070250
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CURRENT READINGS ALREADY APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS. MAY SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE STILL LOOK OKAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN TWO VERTICALLY
STACKED...CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEMS. ONE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WAS LOCATED IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
AND DRIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE THE PATTERN HAS BEEN SLOW
TO CHANGE RECENTLY...THE PACIFIC IS NOW WIDE OPEN...SO TO
SPEAK...WITH AN ENDLESS SERIES OF STRONG WAVES TRANSLATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE U.S. THUS...A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

SHORT/LONG RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE WEAKEST AND
THE GFS THE STRONGEST. THE DEEP CLOSED MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH NW GA LATE TONIGHT...AND DRIFT SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE
STATE FRI AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS PULL WELL NW OF THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LOW. A NARROW BAND OF SHRA REMAINS A GOOD PROBABILITY WITH
THIS FRONT AND PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS NW TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
SE. THE OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK DYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
THE TSRA THREAT IS LIMITED...AND LIKELY CONFINED TO W/SW PARTS OF
THE CWA. CAPES...LIS...SFC DEWPOINTS...AND MEX TSRA POPS SUPPORT
THIS THINKING. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWNESS OF THE SYSTEM...WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SE PART OF THE CWA
INTO THE EVE FRI...AND AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE SE PART OF THE
CWA AFT 06Z SAT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES
FURTHER SE.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CLOUD COVER WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS COMPACT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW/W
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 12Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
THUS...RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT STILL EXPECTED TO BE EFFECTIVE
WITH EASTERN AREAS SEEING THE COOLEST READINGS AND FAR NW/W AREAS
THE WARMEST. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS FOR TONIGHT. FOR
FRI...STILL NO APPRECIABLE COLD ADVECTION...BUT CLOUD COVER AND PCPN
WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN. HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS FRI.

A COOLER...DRIER WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE AXIS
OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR COOLING...JUST ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. THE 850MB 0C LINE
BRIEFLY DIPS INTO N GA SUN-MON...SO MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING MAY
RENEW THE NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILD AFTERNOONS. WITH THE SFC LOW WELL
REMOVED FROM THE AREA...WINDS WILL STAY WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANGES WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST TWO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO THE CWA...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME SEVERE WEATHER BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS NOTED ABOVE...A STREAM OF RAPIDLY MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVES WILL IMPACT THE U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN U.S. TUE-THU. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE RATHER DRY AND COOL. FURTHERMORE...A
LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LENDS TO A WEDGE APPEARANCE.
HEALTHY ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE...SO ALTHOUGH
THE SYSTEM WILL BE DAMPENING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO A MEAN RIDGE
AREA...A COOL RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET. HOWEVER...LIMITED
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE TSRA THREAT IS LIMITED.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE HELD DOWN CONSIDERABLY TUE ACROSS THE NORTH AS
RAIN FALLS INTO A INHERENT DRY AIR MASS. HAVE ADJUSTED READINGS DOWN
ACCORDINGLY. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS IS...ANOTHER DEEP FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH IS POISED TO MOVE FROM THE MID U.S. INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM AND
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. LITTLE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AFTER THE TUE
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. SW FLOW ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SHRA CHANCES WED-THU ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN THESE PERIODS. BY FRI...THE MAIN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. STRONG DYNAMICS AND MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT TSRA ARE A GOOD BET WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATES THROUGH THE
AREA FRI-SAT. SEVERE WX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. MUCH
COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AS THE DEEP TROUGH ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG
THE EAST COAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AS COLD AS THEY WERE A WEEK
AGO...PERHAPS COLDER.

AVIATION...
THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO TAP THE GULF FOR MOISTURE...BUT ONLY IN A
NARROW ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. THUS...NO CLOUDS OF SIGNIFICANCE
UNTIL FRONT DRAWS NEAR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CUMULUS FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BY 14Z TO 17Z WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES EXPECTED
BETWEEN 35 HUNDRED AND 45 HUNDRED FEET. CEILINGS MOST LIKELY AFTER
20Z WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE STATE FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
VISIBILITIES...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SET US UP FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KAHN...KMCN...AND KFTY ARE
LIKELY TO SEE SOME FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING.
KCSG MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AT SUNRISE AS WELL AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  74  49  66  41 /   0  30  60   0   0
ATLANTA         52  71  47  63  43 /   0  70  60   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  66  41  56  34 /   5  70  50   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    43  71  43  62  37 /  10  70  40   0   0
COLUMBUS        50  75  50  67  45 /   0  20  60   0   0
GAINESVILLE     48  70  48  60  42 /   0  50  60   0   0
MACON           45  76  50  68  42 /   0  10  60   0   0
ROME            46  69  42  61  37 /  20  70  30   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  44  72  45  64  35 /   0  50  60   0   0
VIDALIA         49  77  53  71  40 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

49