[top]
000
FXUS61 KLWX 090158
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
858 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CDFNT MVG ONTO ERN SHR ATTM. UPON INTERACTING W/ DIFFERENTIAL
BNDRYS FM THE BAY...SHRA DVLPD ALNG FNT...MAINLY IN METRO
BALTIMORE. 18Z LWX WRF-NMM12G CAPTURED THIS QUITE WELL. IT ALSO
PROGGED SHRA IN SERN VA. RECENTLY...LTNG DETECTED ALONG ERN SHR OF
THE BAY...SE OF KENT ISL. ALL OF THIS ACTVTY SHUD BE E OF CWFA BY
02Z. WL UPDT PRODUCTS AGN AT THAT PT...RMVG ELY EVE WORDING. AREA
88D/S STILL DETECTING LGT PCPN ACRS ERN PA. SOME OF THAT MAY CLIP
NRN METRO BALT...SO WL LINGER SCHC THERE.
ALNG THE ALLEGANY FRONT...RGNL RADARS SUGGEST A FEW LGT RTNS PSBL
IN UPSLP. TRAJ NOT FVRBL THO /PBZ 00Z RAOB SUGGESTS WSW FLOW/...
AND BNDRY LYR STILL QUITE WARM. HV BACKED OFF ON PCPN...KEEPING
JUST SCHC FOR THE OVNGT.
OTRW...THINK THE WLYS WL SCOUR OUT THE LOW DECK...ALLWG FRO BRKS
IN THE CLDCVR E OF THE MTNS. WL KEEP PTCLDY FM PRVS FCST. USED 18Z
GDNC AND LTST LAMP TO ADJUST MIN-T FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPR LOW ACRS GRTLKS WL CONT TO SEND S/WV ENERGY OUR WAY. FOR
THAT MATTER...APPEARS AS THO H5 LOW CNTRS WL PIVOT ARND EACH OTR.
REGARDLESS...EFFECT ON CWFA WL BE FOR CONTD WLY FLOW...W/ CAA
THRUT COLUMN. ADD FVRBL LAPSE RATES...AND XPCT AFTN CLDS TO RDVLP
AREAWIDE.
FOR THE WRN FRINGE...JUST LIKE TNGT...FLOW PTTN /WSW/ NOT FVRBL
FOR MUCH PCPN...THO DO XPCT NMRS CLDS TO BANK UP ALNG RDG.
HV TOUCHED UP GRIDS A BIT...SCALING BACK POPS...REFINING WNDS...
AND ADJUSTING TEMPS ACRS HIER ELEVS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER...LASTING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL TREND IS
TO BACK OFF ON POPS DURING THE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER
TO RETREAT...AND MOISTURE SLOWER TO INCREASE/RETURN. BEST CHANCE OF
ANY RAIN WORKING INTO THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME NOW LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THERE/S DISAGREEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY RESIDE OVER THE CWA. UNDER A RETURN FLOW...SIDED
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SPREADS CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY THURSDAY. 12Z GFS SUPPORTS THIS. AFTER THURSDAY...THERE/S A
CHANCE THAT THE SPLIT FLOW MAY TRY TO EXHIBIT SOME LARGER SCALE
PHASING...WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THIS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME ENERGY PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR AROUND THIS FEATURE/TIME PERIOD
LATE IN THE WEEK. SATURDAY/S FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW...SIDED TOWARD IT
MOVING THROUGH ACROSS THE CWA FOR LOWER POPS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CDFNT THRU ALL
TERMINALS...AND GUSTY NW WNDS IN ITS WAKE WL DIMINISH SHORTLY.
THE SUBSIDENCE FM WLY FLOW SHUD PERMIT LWR CLDS TO BRK OVRNGT.
HWVR...LRG UPR LOW SPIRALS ACRS GRTLKS...WHICH WL SEND S/WV ENERGY
TWD MD/VA/WV TMRW. ADD FVRBL LAPSE RATES...AND XPCT CLDS TO RDVLP
TMRW AFTN. CIGS SHUD BE IN THE 6-7 THSND FT RNG. MRB/MTN WL BE
MOST AFFECTED...CHO THE LEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START NEXT WEEK...THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
CDFNT JUST ABT THRU WATERS. SHRA ACTVTY PICKED UP AS BNDRY
ENCOUNTERED MARINE AMS...AND EVEN A CPL LTNG STRIKES NOTED.
HWVR...THAT WL ALL BE ON ERN SHR BY TIME UPDT OUT...SO WL OMIT
PCPN. HWVR...IN ITS WAKE...WNDS WL PICK UP FOR SVRL HRS. PER LWX
WRF-NMM12G AND MONITORING OBS...AM CONCERNED THAT DURATION MAY BE
A LTL TOO LONG TO COVER BY MWS. SO...AM RELECTANTLY HOISTING SCA
FOR TNGT. XPCT MID SHIFT TO BE ABLE TO DROP IT PRIOR TO ITS 2AM
EXPIRATION.
ONCE SURGE OF COOLER/LWR DEWPT AIR PASSES ACRS WATERS...DONT
FORSEE ADDTL WND SURGES OF NOTE TMRW. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS
15 KT AT MOST...AND ALL LWX WRF PROGS CONCURS. WL THRFR CANX SCA
FOR TMRW.
A SURGE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON BY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES THIS EVNG ABT 0.5-0.75 FT. WUD XPCT THESE TO RTN
TO NRML AS WLY WNDS PICK UP ACRS ESTUARY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...HTS/PELOQUIN
MARINE...HTS/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 090133
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
830 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S BAY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
EAST MAINTAINING A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND DOMINATE
THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE FINE TUNED THE ZONES FURTHER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES CONT TO ROTATE AROUND THE FAIRLY ROBUST
TROF. NOTED THE LIGHT SHWRS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SUSQ VALLEY,
SO WE EXTENDED THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES PAST MIDNIGHT. TSRAS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN DELMARVA THIS EVENING. AIDED BY THE APPROACHING LONG
WAVE TROF AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED ALF AND HAVE ALLOWED
ELECTRIFICATION ONCE THE ECHOES GET AOA 18K.
FULL SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 10 HR AND 13 MIN BUT WE HAVEN`T SEEN
MUCH OF THAT IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THAT WILL END ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WILL GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM AS CLEARING
SET IN OVERNIGHT. THE SUN WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE EARLY THEN IT`LL
START TO CLOUD UP NORTHERN HALF OF CFA AS THE COLD AIR SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AT ANY TIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
CYCLONIC TO SPLIT TO DEEPENING MID WEST TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS WE WORK
THROUGH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIODS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND THE MID 40S SOUTH.
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOV 9TH.
HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH A DRYING WIND WILL BE 45 TO 50 NORTH AND MID
60S SOUTH. DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD KEEP A GOOD PART OF THE CFA IN
THE SUN EXCEPT FOR THE COOLER NORTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER LOW`S CONSOLIDATE OVER JAMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN A
PUSH EAST. SPLIT FLOW WITH THE RETREATING LOW AND A DEVELOPING
FAST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES. SLIVER OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLICES INTO THE CFA ON MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
INTO TUESDAY. AS YOU`LL SEE THE MARGIN BETWEEN FAIR WX AND NOT IS
A FINE ONE. THE AIR COOLS DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES TO 40 SOUTH AND EVEN COLDER FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. MEANWHILE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOW AND MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS AND WEAKEN. THE MOISTURE FROM IT WILL BE SWEPT UP IN
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CARRIED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BECOME A FULL LAT TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY HIGH QPF`S IN THE DEEP SOUTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE HERE, RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGH BUT
QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH. THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTERACTS
WITH THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH TO PRODUCE A RICH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE QPF AMOUNTS THAT COULD HAVE
BEEN THE CASE OVER A GOOD PART OF THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW, VERY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CFA AND THE SECONDARY MAX TO
OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE LOW TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A CHANGE IN THE TRACK EITHER WAY COULD MEAN
VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR US BUT WE`LL SEE WITH LATER RUNS. COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ZONES COULD MEAN A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING
BACK TO RAIN. VERY WARM 80H TEMPERATURES OVER THE CFA WILL MEAN JUST
RAIN FOR OUR FORECAST REGION.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
ABOVE INTO SATURDAY.
A WAY`S OFF, BUT FRIDAY COULD BE A STORMY DAY FOR REGION WITH 80H
WINDS OF 50 TO 65 KT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY IFR
CONDITIONS CENTRAL SHOULD IMPROVE WITH THE EASTERNMOST SITES (KACY)
FOLLOWING SUIT THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST, AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WEST, SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND DECREASE TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON THE SOUNDINGS THIS
EVENING, SO A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR DECK WAS KEPT THIS EVENING,
RISING AND THEN SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. THEN, MOS GUIDANCE,
SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY; THIS WAS SHOWN FOR KPHL IN THE 24 TO
30 HOUR RANGE OF THE TAF (THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE ONLY 24 HOUR TAFS,
VALID THROUGH 09/18Z).
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BUILD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND BE OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW HAD BUILT A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON...TO JUST UNDER 5 FEET AT BUOY 44009 (OK, IT ROUNDS
UP TO 5 FEET). HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, AND WITH THE ONSET OF OFFSHORE FLOW
CONDITIONS AND WITH ONLY A MODERATE GRADIENT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BUILD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND BE OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT FLOW MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK TO SWITCH TO A RETURN, AND
POSSIBLY AN ONSHORE, FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS SET UP, THIS COULD MEAN A FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH ENHANCED SEAS LATE THURSDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY (AND FRIDAY IS BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD). WAVEWATCH DOES
INDICATE SEAS UP TO 10 FEET FRIDAY, BUT THAT MAY BE EXAGGERATED
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR THURSDAY, WAVEWATCH SHOWS A REASONABLE 3
OR 4 FEET.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIXED BUT NO TIME FRAME WAS SET. IN THE
MEANTIME...YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS
AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI/EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
EQUIPMENT...EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 090029
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
720 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S BAY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
EAST MAINTAINING A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND DOMINATE
THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ZONES HAVE JUST BEEN UPDATED TO CATCH THE SHRAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE DPVA ZONE OVER MARYLAND.
FULL SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 10 HR AND 13 MIN BUT WE HAVEN`T SEEN
MUCH OF THAT IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THAT WILL END ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WILL GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM AS CLEARING
SET IN OVERNIGHT. THE SUN WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE EARLY THEN IT`LL
START TO CLOUD UP NORTHERN HALF OF CFA AS THE COLD AIR SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AT ANY TIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
CYCLONIC TO SPLIT TO DEEPENING MID WEST TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS WE WORK
THROUGH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIODS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND THE MID 40S SOUTH.
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOV 9TH.
HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH A DRYING WIND WILL BE 45 TO 50 NORTH AND MID
60S SOUTH. DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD KEEP A GOOD PART OF THE CFA IN
THE SUN EXCEPT FOR THE COOLER NORTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER LOW`S CONSOLIDATE OVER JAMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN A
PUSH EAST. SPLIT FLOW WITH THE RETREATING LOW AND A DEVELOPING
FAST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES. SLIVER OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLICES INTO THE CFA ON MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
INTO TUESDAY. AS YOU`LL SEE THE MARGIN BETWEEN FAIR WX AND NOT IS
A FINE ONE. THE AIR COOLS DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES TO 40 SOUTH AND EVEN COLDER FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. MEANWHILE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOW AND MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS AND WEAKEN. THE MOISTURE FROM IT WILL BE SWEPT UP IN
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CARRIED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BECOME A FULL LAT TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY HIGH QPF`S IN THE DEEP SOUTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE HERE, RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGH BUT
QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH. THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTERACTS
WITH THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH TO PRODUCE A RICH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE QPF AMOUNTS THAT COULD HAVE
BEEN THE CASE OVER A GOOD PART OF THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW, VERY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CFA AND THE SECONDARY MAX TO
OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE LOW TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A CHANGE IN THE TRACK EITHER WAY COULD MEAN
VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR US BUT WE`LL SEE WITH LATER RUNS. COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ZONES COULD MEAN A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING
BACK TO RAIN. VERY WARM 80H TEMPERATURES OVER THE CFA WILL MEAN JUST
RAIN FOR OUR FORECAST REGION.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
ABOVE INTO SATURDAY.
A WAY`S OFF, BUT FRIDAY COULD BE A STORMY DAY FOR REGION WITH 80H
WINDS OF 50 TO 65 KT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY IFR
CONDITIONS CENTRAL SHOULD IMPROVE WITH THE EASTERNMOST SITES (KACY)
FOLLOWING SUIT THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST, AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WEST, SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND DECREASE TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON THE SOUNDINGS THIS
EVENING, SO A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR DECK WAS KEPT THIS EVENING,
RISING AND THEN SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. THEN, MOS GUIDANCE,
SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY; THIS WAS SHOWN FOR KPHL IN THE 24 TO
30 HOUR RANGE OF THE TAF (THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE ONLY 24 HOUR TAFS,
VALID THROUGH 09/18Z).
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BUILD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND BE OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW HAD BUILT A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON...TO JUST UNDER 5 FEET AT BUOY 44009 (OK, IT ROUNDS
UP TO 5 FEET). HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, AND WITH THE ONSET OF OFFSHORE FLOW
CONDITIONS AND WITH ONLY A MODERATE GRADIENT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BUILD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND BE OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT FLOW MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK TO SWITCH TO A RETURN, AND
POSSIBLY AN ONSHORE, FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS SET UP, THIS COULD MEAN A FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH ENHANCED SEAS LATE THURSDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY (AND FRIDAY IS BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD). WAVEWATCH DOES
INDICATE SEAS UP TO 10 FEET FRIDAY, BUT THAT MAY BE EXAGGERATED
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR THURSDAY, WAVEWATCH SHOWS A REASONABLE 3
OR 4 FEET.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIXED BUT NO TIME FRAME WAS SET. IN THE
MEANTIME...YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS
AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI/EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
EQUIPMENT...EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KLWX 082351 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
651 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CDFNT FM DMH-EZF ATTM. AREA OF SHRA DVLPD JUST W OF NAK. 18Z WRF
NMM12G SUGGESTS THAT ADDTL SHRA MAY DVLP ALNG LN...MOSTLY NEAR NE
MD. WL FIRE OFF QUICK UPDT TO COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIP FURTHER SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED...PROBABLY LESS THAN WHAT DEVELOPED TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER...LASTING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL TREND IS
TO BACK OFF ON POPS DURING THE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER
TO RETREAT...AND MOISTURE SLOWER TO INCREASE/RETURN. BEST CHANCE OF
ANY RAIN WORKING INTO THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME NOW LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THERE/S DISAGREEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY RESIDE OVER THE CWA. UNDER A RETURN FLOW...SIDED
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SPREADS CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY THURSDAY. 12Z GFS SUPPORTS THIS. AFTER THURSDAY...THERE/S A
CHANCE THAT THE SPLIT FLOW MAY TRY TO EXHIBIT SOME LARGER SCALE
PHASING...WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THIS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME ENERGY PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR AROUND THIS FEATURE/TIME PERIOD
LATE IN THE WEEK. SATURDAY/S FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW...SIDED TOWARD IT
MOVING THROUGH ACROSS THE CWA FOR LOWER POPS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WNDS ACRS AREA
WL DIMINISH SHORTLY. LOW CLDS MAY BREAK IN NW FLOW TNGT...BUT
DAYTIME HEATING AND S/WV WL SPARK MORE CLDS TMRW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START NEXT WEEK...THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHRA RISK AND SHARP WSHFT THIS EVNG AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. HV
ISSUED MWS. DURATION TOO SHORT FOR SCA.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE FOR ALL
ZONES.
A SURGE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON BY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF A FOOT OR LESS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE DEPARTURES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS
WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...HTS/PELOQUIN
MARINE...HTS/SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 082058
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S BAY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
EAST MAINTAINING A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND DOMINATE
THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FULL SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 10 HR AND 13 MIN BUT WE HAVEN`T SEEN
MUCH OF THAT IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THAT WILL END ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WILL GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM AS CLEARING
SET IN OVERNIGHT. THE SUN WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE EARLY THEN IT`LL
START TO CLOUD UP NORTHERN HALF OF CFA AS THE COLD AIR SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AT ANY TIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
CYCLONIC TO SPLIT TO DEEPENING MID WEST TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS WE WORK
THROUGH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIODS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND THE MID 40S SOUTH.
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOV 9TH.
HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH A DRYING WIND WILL BE 45 TO 50 NORTH AND MID
60S SOUTH. DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD KEEP A GOOD PART OF THE CFA IN
THE SUN EXCEPT FOR THE COOLER NORTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER LOW`S CONSOLIDATE OVER JAMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN A
PUSH EAST. SPLIT FLOW WITH THE RETREATING LOW AND A DEVELOPING
FAST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES. SLIVER OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLICES INTO THE CFA ON MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
INTO TUESDAY. AS YOU`LL SEE THE MARGIN BETWEEN FAIR WX AND NOT IS
A FINE ONE. THE AIR COOLS DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES TO 40 SOUTH AND EVEN COLDER FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. MEANWHILE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOW AND MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS AND WEAKEN. THE MOISTURE FROM IT WILL BE SWEPT UP
IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CARRIED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND BECOME A FULL LAT TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROUGH
BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY HIGH QPF`S IN THE DEEP SOUTH. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE HERE, RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGH BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME
PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH TO PRODUCE A
RICH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL REDUCE
THE QPF AMOUNTS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN THE CASE OVER A GOOD PART OF
THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW, VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE CFA AND THE SECONDARY MAX TO OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE LOW TURNS
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A CHANGE
IN THE TRACK EITHER WAY COULD MEAN VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR US BUT
WE`LL SEE WITH LATER RUNS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
COULD MEAN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO RAIN. VERY WARM 80H
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CFA WILL MEAN JUST RAIN FOR OUR FORECAST REGION.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
ABOVE INTO SATURDAY.
A WAY`S OFF, BUT FRIDAY COULD BE A STORMY DAY FOR REGION WITH 80H
WINDS OF 50 TO 65 KT.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AT MID AFTERNOON, AS THE
COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SLOWLY INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ACCEPTABLY
WELL, WITH THE GFS AND THE NAM ALMOST IDENTICAL ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING TO VFR FOR THE WESTERN TAF
SITES AS OF MID AFTERNOON, AND ANY IFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE EASTERNMOST SITE (KACY)
FOLLOWING SUIT AROUND OR A BIT AFTER DARK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
EAST, AND WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WEST, SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER
10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND DECREASE TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON THE SOUNDINGS THIS
EVENING, SO A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR DECK WAS KEPT THIS EVENING,
RISING AND THEN SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. THEN, MOS GUIDANCE,
SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY; THIS WAS SHOWN FOR KPHL IN THE 24 TO
30 HOUR RANGE OF THE TAF (THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE ONLY 24 HOUR TAFS,
VALID THROUGH 09/18Z).
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BUILD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND BE OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW HAD BUILT A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON...TO JUST UNDER 5 FEET AT BUOY 44009 (OK, IT ROUNDS
UP TO 5 FEET). HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, AND WITH THE ONSET OF OFFSHORE FLOW
CONDITIONS AND WITH ONLY A MODERATE GRADIENT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BUILD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND BE OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT FLOW MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK TO SWITCH TO A RETURN, AND
POSSIBLY AN ONSHORE, FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS SET UP, THIS COULD MEAN A FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH ENHANCED SEAS LATE THURSDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY (AND FRIDAY IS BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD). WAVEWATCH DOES
INDICATE SEAS UP TO 10 FEET FRIDAY, BUT THAT MAY BE EXAGGERATED
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR THURSDAY, WAVEWATCH SHOWS A REASONABLE 3
OR 4 FEET.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIXED BUT NO TIME FRAME WAS SET. IN THE
MEANTIME...YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS
AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
EQUIPMENT...EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KLWX 081952
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WAS NOTED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD BEHIND
IT. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SECONDARY TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE TO THE
WEST...HAVING TROUBLE CLEARING SKIES OUT OVERNIGHT. WILL GO MORE
PESSIMISTIC THAT MOS GUIDE GRIDS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE COMPLETELY CHANGING OVER LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIP FURTHER SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED...PROBABLY LESS THAN WHAT DEVELOPED TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER...LASTING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL TREND IS
TO BACK OFF ON POPS DURING THE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER
TO RETREAT...AND MOISTURE SLOWER TO INCREASE/RETURN. BEST CHANCE OF
ANY RAIN WORKING INTO THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME NOW LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THERE/S DISAGREEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY RESIDE OVER THE CWA. UNDER A RETURN FLOW...SIDED
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SPREADS CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY THURSDAY. 12Z GFS SUPPORTS THIS. AFTER THURSDAY...THERE/S A
CHANCE THAT THE SPLIT FLOW MAY TRY TO EXHIBIT SOME LARGER SCALE
PHASING...WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THIS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME ENERGY PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR AROUND THIS FEATURE/TIME PERIOD
LATE IN THE WEEK. SATURDAY/S FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW...SIDED TOWARD IT
MOVING THROUGH ACROSS THE CWA FOR LOWER POPS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WILL GET A FEW MORE
BREAKS OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE VERY MUCH CLEARING GIVEN
A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START NEXT WEEK...THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE FOR ALL
ZONES.
A SURGE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON BY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF A FOOT OR LESS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE DEPARTURES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS
WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...SAR
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...SAR/PELOQUIN
MARINE...SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
[top]
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081924
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
224 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BY TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...AND WILL KEEP
ONLY A SLT CHC TO A CHC POPS FOR CSTL WATERS AND THE EASTERN
SHORE....AND THE EXTREME SE PART OF FA FOR TNT. INSTABILITY HAS
DECREASED...AND HAVE TAKEN OUT THE ISOLATED THUNDER.
EXPECT SKY TO CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM
SHOWS WEAK TROF MOVING THRU THE FA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
NO POPS EXPECTED...ONLY A WIND SHIFT. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE L-M60S...AND WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES EACH OF THE NEXT 2
DAYS. TUE HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE M-U50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S-M40S. EXPECT SOME FREEZING TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST OF I-95 AND AROUND SBY. ELSEWHERE ON MON
NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SIMILAR IN MID LVL PATTERN INTO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND THEN DIVERGE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF
OVER THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WEEK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF
A WEDGE SITUATION TUE INTO WED. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON
TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE ERN
CONUS LATE WK. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT STILL
TO BE DETERMINED IF ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE SPREAD FAR ENOUGH TO
THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. CONTINUE TO BUY INTO SPLIT FLOW DVLPG WITH
MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS THU-FRI. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS
AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE A TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH LATE WEEK FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...COLD FRONT ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ACROSS THE EASTERN VA
PENINSULAS. MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS STRETCH JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...ALONG LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE (WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXISTS) THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS AND INTO NE NC AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS AREA...AND LOCATIONS EAST
(ORF/ECG)...SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING
HEAVIEST PRECIP UNTIL FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND 21Z FOR THE ERN
SHORE...AND 23Z FOR NE NC. SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BROUGHT VFR CONDS TO LOCATIONS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 (INCL RIC) WHERE A FAIR CU FIELD (4 TO 5
KFT) HAS SETUP. DESPITE THE FROPA DO NOT EXPECT COMPLETE CLEARING
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDS FOR
SBY/ORF/ECG IN THE EVNG/EARLY OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF FOG/REDUCED
VSBYS DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND CALMING OF WINDS (EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE TO CLEAR AT LEAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT). ANY FOG
WOULD BE PATCHY AND IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIMEFRAME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUES...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MVS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SSW WINDS (CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KTS) WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN BEFORE A SECONDARY TROF PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUN.
BEHIND IT NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT/BRIEF LOW LVL NWRLY SURGE
OVER THE BAY. COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT/MON AM BEFORE
GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW DVLPS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALS
NEAR TERM...ALS
SHORT TERM...ALS
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...CCW
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081922
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
222 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTN...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING
TO THE E/NE...WITH A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW ENTERING NORTHERN
OHIO. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO THINK ENOUGH LIFT
IS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHWR OR TWO AS IT CLIPS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A SHWR NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG
THE RIDGES. MODELS DIFFER SUNDAY ON HANDLING OF THE NEXT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. NAM/SREF SHOW SIGNIFICANT LIFT REMAINING TO
THE NORTH...WHILE GFS IS CUTTING THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER
NW PA. GIVEN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHWRS TODAY
WITH THE WEAKER FEATURES THAT THE GFS IS HANDLING A LITTLE BETTER...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM PIT NORTHWARD
AND ALONG THE RIDGES BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH AN ISOLATED SHWR OR TWO
FURTHER SOUTH. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SURFACE TEMPS INDICATE
PRECIP WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIQUID.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS AUGMENTED WITH SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/NW. WILL USE LIKELY POPS FAR
NORTH...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING
WILL BE MAINLY LIQUID...MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN WARM GROUND...WILL KEEP ACCUMS MINOR. PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND LAKE INFLUENCE DIMINISHES. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HAVE FALLEN INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY...WITH MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICTING SHORT WAVE RIDGING.
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND SURFACE LOWS MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN TO GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ON WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY NORTHEAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE BY MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AS NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081827
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
127 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO
ZONES AS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HAVE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE DATA TRENDS. RADAR
SHOWING MORE PRECIP THAN MODELS HAD FCST...AND HAVE RAISED POPS
TO 70 PCT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TAKEN OUT POPS
FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY GONE THROUGH. COLD
FRNT HAS JUST GONE THROUGH RIC...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN SHRAS RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IT. FRNT AND SHRAS WILL
PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION TDY...WITH PCPN MOVNG OFFSHR THIS AFTN.
THE LATEST GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC CST THIS
EVENG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT
POST-FRNTL CLEARING TO BLD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRNT OVR WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MSTLY CLR TO PRTLY CLDY TNGT...AS THE FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE W. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG...FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES BLDNG OVR THE REGION MON. MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...COLD FRONT ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ACROSS THE EASTERN VA
PENINSULAS. MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS STRETCH JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...ALONG LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE (WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXISTS) THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS AND INTO NE NC AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS AREA...AND LOCATIONS EAST
(ORF/ECG)...SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING
HEAVIEST PRECIP UNTIL FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND 21Z FOR THE ERN
SHORE...AND 23Z FOR NE NC. SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BROUGHT VFR CONDS TO LOCATIONS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 (INCL RIC) WHERE A FAIR CU FIELD (4 TO 5
KFT) HAS SETUP. DESPITE THE FROPA DO NOT EXPECT COMPLETE CLEARING
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDS FOR
SBY/ORF/ECG IN THE EVNG/EARLY OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF FOG/REDUCED
VSBYS DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND CALMING OF WINDS (EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE TO CLEAR AT LEAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT). ANY FOG
WOULD BE PATCHY AND IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIMEFRAME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUES...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MVS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SSW WINDS (CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KTS) WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN...SO WINDS REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. PROGGED LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WED/THU IS TO OUR NORTH WHICH WOULD BRING ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALS/CCW
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...BAJ/JYM
000
FXUS61 KPHI 081745
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1245 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT MIDDAY,
AND WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING EASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT, SO THE LIKELY PROBABILITIES WILL BE SHIFTED
EASTWARD IN A QUICKIE UPDATE, AS WELL AS KEPT FOR A SHORTER
DURATION. OTHERWISE, JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE USED ELSEWHERE
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWER INTENSITIES HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE, LOTS OF CLOUDS, AND MAYBE A FEW BREAKS WEST, WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE (LOW) CLOUDS IN PLACE ALL DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING TOO WARM. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL PROBABLY
BE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WE GET SOME TEMPORARY MIXING OF THE
WARMER AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE MAV TEMPS LOOKED OK OR A BIT HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
I KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AS BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONT DOWN UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS OVER
NJ/DE. IF A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, WE COULD EVEN GET A LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FCST THAT.
DRY COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, IT LOOKS LIKE WILL WILL HOLD CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WE REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT WITH
CAA, A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
POCONOS. FARTHER SOUTH, DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO HIGH BASED OFF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEW GFS SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FCST SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS EVOLVE INTO
FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAINED IFR AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT LATE
MORNING AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE
SLOWLY THOUGH THE AREA. A SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINED AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME PLACES SPORTED MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS A RANGE OF VALUES WAS DISPLAYED.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES, THE IFR WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. THE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SHOWERS LIES IN
THE FACT THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE FRONT THE SAME WAY OR VERY
WELL AT ALL.
THE NAM HAS DRIED THE FRONT OUT WHERE AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WENT MORE WITH THE GFS
TIMING, SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES.
AFTER THIS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, HIGHER CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A LACK OF MIXING, AND THEREFORE CAUSE A LAG IN
CEILING IMPROVEMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT OFFICIALLY EXIT THE
REGION UNTIL THIS EVENING. WE HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, AS SOME SHOWERS MAY REMAIN.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, THEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN BOTH THE PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENTS THIS
AFTERNOON, TONIGHT, AND SUNDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE REGION,
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING.
AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MAY
INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. HOWEVER,
WITH THAT BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN
WE GET TO IT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIXED BUT NO TIME FRAME IS SET. IN THE
MEANTIME...YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS
AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../ STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER/KRUDZLO
AVIATION.../ MEOLA
MARINE.../ MEOLA
EQUIPMENT.../ EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 081630
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1130 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS OF LATE
MORNING, AND WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY, PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS AT MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, SO PROBABILITIES WERE BUMPED UP TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY EVERYWHERE. THE DRY SLOT TO THE WEST, WITH AN ATTENDANT
CLOUD-MINIMAL AREA AT LATE MORNING, WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SHRINKING
AS HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WERE APPROACHING. SO, MOSTLY CLOUDY
WILL BE FORECAST EVEN WHERE PROBABILITIES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES
DROP TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE (LOW) CLOUDS IN PLACE ALL DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING TOO WARM. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL PROBABLY
BE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WE GET SOME TEMPORARY MIXING OF THE
WARMER AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE MAV TEMPS LOOKED OK OR A BIT HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
I KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AS BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONT DOWN UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS OVER
NJ/DE. IF A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, WE COULD EVEN GET A LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FCST THAT.
DRY COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, IT LOOKS LIKE WILL WILL HOLD CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WE REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT WITH
CAA, A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
POCONOS. FARTHER SOUTH, DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO HIGH BASED OFF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEW GFS SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FCST SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS EVOLVE INTO
FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAINED IFR AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT LATE
MORNING AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE
SLOWLY THOUGH THE AREA. A SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINED AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME PLACES SPORTED MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS A RANGE OF VALUES WAS DISPLAYED.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES, THE IFR WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. THE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SHOWERS LIES IN
THE FACT THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE FRONT THE SAME WAY OR VERY
WELL AT ALL.
THE NAM HAS DRIED THE FRONT OUT WHERE AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WENT MORE WITH THE GFS
TIMING, SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES.
AFTER THIS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, HIGHER CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A LACK OF MIXING, AND THEREFORE CAUSE A LAG IN
CEILING IMPROVEMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT OFFICIALLY EXIT THE
REGION UNTIL THIS EVENING. WE HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, AS SOME SHOWERS MAY REMAIN.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, THEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN BOTH THE PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENTS THIS
AFTERNOON, TONIGHT, AND SUNDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE REGION,
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING.
AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MAY
INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. HOWEVER,
WITH THAT BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN
WE GET TO IT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIXED BUT NO TIME FRAME IS SET. IN THE
MEANTIME...YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS
AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../ STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER/KRUDZLO
AVIATION.../ MEOLA
MARINE.../ MEOLA
EQUIPMENT.../ EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KLWX 081624 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. AFTER A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEW YORK
THEN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.
MAIN UPDATE IS TO ADDRESS RADAR SATELLITE TRENDS. HAVE CUT OUT POPS
FOR ALL BUT LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. ALSO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
SKY COVER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY VERSUS MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC TROF AXIS SHUD BE E OF FCST AREA TNGT...WITH WLY WINDS THRU DP
LYR AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF ROUNDS THE UPR LOW. UPSLP FLOW IN HIGH
TERRAIN OF WRN ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LGT RA/SN TNGT.
DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND SFC BNDRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE POPS...KEEPING
WITH PREV THINKING OF BASICALLY LOW CHANCE POPS D4-7. GFS HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM. THE SHRTWV THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS A LEE SFC LOW ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EFFECTIVELY WASHES OUT BY LATE TUE AFTER
CREATING A WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER
OHIO VLY...STRETCHING THIN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND SCATTERING OUT
LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CNTRL APLCNS TUE INTO
WED. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS...A SUBSEQUENT CLOSED LOW CUTTING
OFF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THEN TAKES A SRN ROUTE DOWN INTO THE
SRN APLCNS...THEN SLIDING A POTENT AND GUSTY SFC LOW UP THE
APLCN CHAIN FRI-SAT. THE EUROPEAN MAKES LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE
MID-LATE WEEK DYNAMICS...BASICALLY DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN US WHICH GRADUALLY DRAGS A TROF AXIS OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE COMPLETE DISCONTINUITY IN
HANDLING THESE FEATURES BEYOND D3...WILL KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE POPS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE M/U30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLC...AND MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEG
COLDER. MANY AREAS XPCD TO DROP BELOW FRZG FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
THE GROWING SEASON ENDED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. MOISTURE INCRS FROM
THE WEAK SLY FLOW TUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SKIES ARE XPCD TO BE
CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY-MOCLDY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ONCE THE WEAKENING
TROF SPREADS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUE THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT FOR THE BALTIMORE
TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
HIPRES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUE INTO WED...KEEPING
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL BE UPDATING COASTALS TO REMOVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WIND GUSTS OVER THE WATER HAVE SUBSIDED TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
A SCA POSTED FOR SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE WATERS...MARGINAL AND
INTERMITTENT 20 KT GUSTS IN WLY FLOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BREEZIER...WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION AND NWLY WINDS INCRG MAINLY OVER THE WATER TWD MID-LATE AFTN
AS THE MID LEVEL TROF SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HIPRES WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING 1-1.5 FT ABV XPCD VALUES. WITH SLY WINDS ACRS BAY
TDA...THIS TREND MAY CONT THRU TDA. BUT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
XPCD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SAR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KRAMAR/SCHOOR
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081606
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1105 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES PSBL ON THE RIDGES/EXTREME NORTH. A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL BRING ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHWRS NORTH OF PIT TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS MORNING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF SUB NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINKED TO
SHORTWAVES/REINFORCING COLD FRONTS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF
MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER-PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HUDSON BAY.
FIRST IN SERIES IS TIMED FOR AN EVENING APPROACH/OVERNIGHT
PASSAGE WITH ANOTHER TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. POPS
WERE STRUCTURED FOR OP MDL/SREF MID LEVEL THERMAL TROFS WHICH WILL
SERVE TO DEEPEN MIXING LAYER SUFFICIENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT A STRIP OF LIKELY NUMBERS WAS
INCLUDED ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES TO THE NORTH OF I 80 WHERE
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OVER LAKE ERIE MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION ON DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW WILL
DRIVE THE INVERSION DOWN AND SNUFF PRECIPITATION
OPPORTUNITY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WAVES MOVING
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PLAN TO
GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...THEN EXPECT A MID LEVEL OVERCAST DECK TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY. A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DECREASE BY
MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081436
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
936 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO
ZONES AS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HAVE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE DATA TRENDS. RADAR
SHOWING MORE PRECIP THAN MODELS HAD FCST...AND HAVED RAISED POPS
TO 70 PCT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TAKEN OUT POPS
FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY GONE THROUGH. COLD
FRNT HAS JUST GONE THROUGH RIC...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN SHRAS RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IT. FRNT AND SHRAS WILL
PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION TDY...WITH PCPN MOVNG OFFSHR THIS AFTN.
THE LATEST GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC CST THIS
EVENG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT
POST-FRNTL CLEARING TO BLD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRNT OVR WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MSTLY CLR TO PRTLY CLDY TNGT...AS THE FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE W. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG...FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES BLDNG OVR THE REGION MON. MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SBY TAF EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLEAR
AROUND SUNSET DUE TO HEATING AS WELL AS APPROACHING FRONT. CIGS WILL
BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MVS INTO THE
AREA...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE OCCASIONAL MVFR (ABOUT 1500 TO 2500FT). DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
AND REMOVE PREDOMINANT RAIN IN TAFS AND KEEP JUST VCSH AS FRONT MVS
THROUGH DUE TO LOW CHANCES (LIMITED MOISTURE). CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUES MORNING...BRINGING JUST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS TO ALL OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED BLO SCA CRITERIA OVER OUR NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS...SO LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE AT LAST ISSUANCE. A
COLD FRONT MVS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN...SO WINDS REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALS/CCW
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...JYM
MARINE...JYM
000
FXUS61 KLWX 081417
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. AFTER A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEW YORK
THEN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND.
MAIN UPDATE IS TO ADDRESS RADAR TRENDS. HAVE CUT BACK POPS WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BAY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS...WITH A FEW
STORMS OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. WITH UPPER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT...THIS FEATURE WILL NOT MOVE EAST VERY FAST. WILL CARRY
POPS IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ALSO MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOME SUNSHINE CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC TROF AXIS SHUD BE E OF FCST AREA TNGT...WITH WLY WINDS THRU DP
LYR AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF ROUNDS THE UPR LOW. UPSLP FLOW IN HIGH
TERRAIN OF WRN ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LGT RA/SN TNGT.
DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND SFC BNDRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE POPS...KEEPING
WITH PREV THINKING OF BASICALLY LOW CHANCE POPS D4-7. GFS HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM. THE SHRTWV THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS A LEE SFC LOW ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EFFECTIVELY WASHES OUT BY LATE TUE AFTER
CREATING A WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER
OHIO VLY...STRETCHING THIN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND SCATTERING OUT
LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CNTRL APLCNS TUE INTO
WED. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS...A SUBSEQUENT CLOSED LOW CUTTING
OFF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THEN TAKES A SRN ROUTE DOWN INTO THE
SRN APLCNS...THEN SLIDING A POTENT AND GUSTY SFC LOW UP THE
APLCN CHAIN FRI-SAT. THE EUROPEAN MAKES LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE
MID-LATE WEEK DYNAMICS...BASICALLY DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN US WHICH GRADUALLY DRAGS A TROF AXIS OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE COMPLETE DISCONTINUITY IN
HANDLING THESE FEATURES BEYOND D3...WILL KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE POPS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE M/U30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLC...AND MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEG
COLDER. MANY AREAS XPCD TO DROP BELOW FRZG FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
THE GROWING SEASON ENDED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. MOISTURE INCRS FROM
THE WEAK SLY FLOW TUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SKIES ARE XPCD TO BE
CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY-MOCLDY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ONCE THE WEAKENING
TROF SPREADS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUE THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...KBWI AND KMTN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OF KDCA. BRIEF CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON.
BKN LOW CLDS SHUD ERODE LATE THIS EVE.
HIPRES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUE INTO WED...KEEPING
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY ZONES
THROUGH NOON. STILL HAVE A FEW OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
A SCA POSTED FOR SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE WATERS...MARGINAL AND
INTERMITTENT 20 KT GUSTS IN WLY FLOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BREEZIER...WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION AND NWLY WINDS INCRG MAINLY OVER THE WATER TWD MID-LATE AFTN
AS THE MID LEVEL TROF SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HIPRES WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING 1-1.5 FT ABV XPCD VALUES. WITH SLY WINDS ACRS BAY
TDA...THIS TREND MAY CONT THRU TDA. BUT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
XPCD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537.
&&
$$
MORNING UPDATE...SAR
PREVOUS DISCUSSION...KRAMAR/SCHOOR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081406
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
906 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO
ZONES AS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE DATA TRENDS.
RADAR SHOWING MORE PRECIP THAN MODELS HAD FCST...AND HAVED RAISED
POPS TO 50 PCT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TAKEN OUT
POPS FOR THE NW COUNTIES WHERE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY GONE
THROUGH. COLD FRNT HAS JUST GONE THROUGH RIC...AND CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST...WITH MAINLY LGT RAIN SHRAS RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IT.
FRNT AND SHRAS WILL PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION TDY...WITH PCPN
MOVNG OFFSHR THIS AFTN. THE LATEST GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT POST-FRNTL CLEARING TO BLD IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRNT OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MSTLY CLR TO PRTLY CLDY TNGT...AS THE FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE W. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG...FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES BLDNG OVR THE REGION MON. MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SBY TAF EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLEAR
AROUND SUNSET DUE TO HEATING AS WELL AS APPROACHING FRONT. CIGS WILL
BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MVS INTO THE
AREA...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE OCCASIONAL MVFR (ABOUT 1500 TO 2500FT). DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
AND REMOVE PREDOMINANT RAIN IN TAFS AND KEEP JUST VCSH AS FRONT MVS
THROUGH DUE TO LOW CHANCES (LIMITED MOISTURE). CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUES MORNING...BRINGING JUST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS TO ALL OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED BLO SCA CRITERIA OVER OUR NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS...SO LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE AT LAST ISSUANCE. A
COLD FRONT MVS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN...SO WINDS REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALS/CCW
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...JYM
MARINE...JYM
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081357
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
900 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED INTO EASTERN PA...WITH PRECIP ENDING.
CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS PSBL THIS AFTN AS A WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
EASTERN MICHIGAN/WESTERN OHIO CLIPS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS MORNING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF SUB NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINKED TO
SHORTWAVES/REINFORCING COLD FRONTS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF
MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER-PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HUDSON BAY.
FIRST IN SERIES IS TIMED FOR AN EVENING APPROACH/OVERNIGHT
PASSAGE WITH ANOTHER TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. POPS
WERE STRUCTURED FOR OP MDL/SREF MID LEVEL THERMAL TROFS WHICH WILL
SERVE TO DEEPEN MIXING LAYER SUFFICIENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT A STRIP OF LIKELY NUMBERS WAS
INCLUDED ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES TO THE NORTH OF I 80 WHERE
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OVER LAKE ERIE MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION ON DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW WILL
DRIVE THE INVERSION DOWN AND SNUFF PRECIPITATION
OPPORTUNITY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WAVES MOVING
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PLAN TO
GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND
THE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT A MID LEVEL OVERCAST DECK TO DEVELOP THAT
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DECREASE BY
MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081256
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
756 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE DATA TRENDS.
RADAR SHOWING MORE PRECIP THAN MODELS HAD FCST...AND HAVED RAISED
POPS TO 50 PCT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TAKEN OUT
POPS FOR THE NW COUNTIES WHERE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY GONE
THROUGH. COLD FRNT HAS JUST GONE THROUGH RIC...AND CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST...WITH MAINLY LGT RAIN SHRAS RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IT.
FRNT AND SHRAS WILL PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION TDY...WITH PCPN
MOVNG OFFSHR THIS AFTN. THE LATEST GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT POST-FRNTL CLEARING TO BLD IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRNT OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MSTLY CLR TO PRTLY CLDY TNGT...AS THE FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE W. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG...FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES BLDNG OVR THE REGION MON. MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SBY TAF EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLEAR
AROUND SUNSET DUE TO HEATING AS WELL AS APPROACHING FRONT. CIGS WILL
BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MVS INTO THE
AREA...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE OCCASIONAL MVFR (ABOUT 1500 TO 2500FT). DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
AND REMOVE PREDOMINANT RAIN IN TAFS AND KEEP JUST VCSH AS FRONT MVS
THROUGH DUE TO LOW CHANCES (LIMITED MOISTURE). CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUES MORNING...BRINGING JUST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS TO ALL OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED BLO SCA CRITERIA OVER OUR NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS...SO LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE AT LAST ISSUANCE. A
COLD FRONT MVS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN...SO WINDS REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALS
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...JYM
MARINE...JYM
000
FXUS61 KPHI 081142
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE CONSIDERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS HIGH AND THE AIRMASS SATURATED, SOME FOG
HAS FORMED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CLEARED YESTERDAY EVENING.
WITH A LIGHT S TO SE FLOW, SOME FOG WILL ALSO FORM OFF OF DELAWARE
AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS AS WELL AS FROM THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE, THERE
WERE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION OVERTOP OF THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK UNTIL FROPA. ALSO, ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
INTO THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WERE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS GEORGIA
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PA
AS EVIDENCED ON RADAR. AS THE FRONT HEADS EAST, THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT WEAKENS, BUT CONSIDERING
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS, I PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY
POPS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WHICH WILL BE CHC.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ALL DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING TOO WARM. THE HIGH TEMP TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WITH FROPA AS WE GET SOME TEMPORARY MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR DOWN
FROM ALOFT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
MAV TEMPS LOOK OK OR A BIT HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
I KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AS BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONT DOWN UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS OVER
NJ/DE. IF A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, WE COULD EVEN GET A LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FCST THAT.
DRY COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, IT LOOKS LIKE WILL WILL HOLD CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WE REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT WITH
CAA, A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
POCONOS. FARTHER SOUTH, DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO HIGH BASED OFF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEW GFS SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FCST SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS EVOLVE INTO
FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO CLIMB THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY KILG, KACY AND KMIV REMAINING IFR. A SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINS
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH
SHOWERS KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN DOORS, WE HAVE ADDED AT LEAST VCSH
INTO THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING/LATE MORNING HOURS, MOVING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REMAINING IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT. THE DIFFICULTY WITH THE
SHOWERS LIES IN THE FACT THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE FRONT THE
SAME WAY OR VERY WELL AT ALL.
THE NAM HAS DRIED THE FRONT OUT WHERE AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WENT MORE WITH THE GFS
TIMING, SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES. WE STARTED
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO KRDG AND KABE BY THE MORNING AND THEN
STAGGERED THE ARRIVAL SOUTH AND EAST, FINALLY REACHING KACY BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
CIRRUS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A LACK OF MIXING THEREFORE CAUSING A LAG IN CEILINGS
IMPROVEMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT OFFICIALLY EXIT THE REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. WE HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, AS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY REMAIN.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DOMINATES THE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH BUOY 44009 DROPPING TO
AROUND 3 FEET THIS MORNING AND BUOY 44065 DROPPED DOWN TO JUST BELOW
4 FEET. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE NO REASON TO ISSUE ANY SCA AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE REGION WE DO NOT EXPECT THE
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN SCA CRITERIA
FOR SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET BY THE END.
AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MAY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, WITH
THAT BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE GET
TO IT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME SET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU
CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT
WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER/KRUDZLO
AVIATION...MEOLA
MARINE...MEOLA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081127
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
MAY BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PROGRESSING EASTWARD. COOLER
AIR AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THUS A MORE SEASONABLE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
WITH ONLY SLIGHT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS MORNING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF SUB NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINKED TO
SHORTWAVES/REINFORCING COLD FRONTS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF
MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER-PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HUDSON BAY.
FIRST IN SERIES IS TIMED FOR AN EVENING APPROACH/OVERNIGHT
PASSAGE WITH ANOTHER TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. POPS
WERE STRUCTURED FOR OP MDL/SREF MID LEVEL THERMAL TROFS WHICH WILL
SERVE TO DEEPEN MIXING LAYER SUFFICIENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT A STRIP OF LIKELY NUMBERS WAS
INCLUDED ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES TO THE NORTH OF I 80 WHERE
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OVER LAKE ERIE MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION ON DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW WILL
DRIVE THE INVERSION DOWN AND SNUFF PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WAVES MOVING
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PLAN TO
GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND
THE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT A MID LEVEL OVERCAST DECK TO DEVELOP THAT
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DECREASE BY
MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/33
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080844
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRNT WAS PUSHING THRU WRN VA ERLY THIS MORNG...WITH SCTD
MAINLY LGT RAIN SHRAS RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IT. FRNT AND LGT SHRAS
WILL PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION TDY...WITH PCPN MOVNG OFFSHR THIS
AFTN. THE LATEST GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THIS EVENG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT
POST-FRNTL CLEARING TO BLD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRNT OVR WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MSTLY CLR TO PRTLY CLDY TNGT...AS THE FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE W. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG...FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES BLDNG OVR THE REGION MON. MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SBY TAF EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLEAR
AROUND SUNSET DUE TO HEATING AS WELL AS APPROACHING FRONT. CIGS WILL
BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MVS INTO THE
AREA...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE OCCASIONAL MVFR (ABOUT 1500 TO 2500FT). DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
AND REMOVE PREDOMINANT RAIN IN TAFS AND KEEP JUST VCSH AS FRONT MVS
THROUGH DUE TO LOW CHANCES (LIMITED MOISTURE). CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUES MORNING...BRINGING JUST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS TO ALL OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED BLO SCA CRITERIA OVER OUR NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS...SO LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE AT LAST ISSUANCE. A
COLD FRONT MVS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN...SO WINDS REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...BKH/TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...JYM
MARINE...JYM
000
FXUS61 KLWX 080827
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. AFTER A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DP UPR TROF OVER MI THIS MRNG...WITH SHRTWV TROF MOVG NE ALG SRN
PERIPHERY OF MAIN SYSTEM. SHRA FORMING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHRTWV
TROF ATTM. SHRTWV TROF XPCD TO LIFT NE ACRS PA TDA...WITH LIFT
DECRG ACRS FCST AREA. THUS...PCPN SHUD GENLY BE CONFINED TO NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG. SOME PCPN ALONG SHRTWV TROF AXIS NOTED SWD INTO
NC...BUT TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD WITH THESE ECHOES.
ALTHOUGH BEST CHC FOR PCPN IN NRN SECTIONS...LWR CLD CVR IN SRN
ZONES MAY ALLOW FOR REDVLPMT OF SCT SHRA BY MID MRNG IN ERN/SERN
PORTIONS OF FCST AREA.
MAXIMA CONFINED TO MID-UPR 50S/LWR 60S XCPT MID 60S IN SRN ZONES
WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC TROF AXIS SHUD BE E OF FCST AREA TNGT...WITH WLY WINDS THRU DP
LYR AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF ROUNDS THE UPR LOW. UPSLP FLOW IN HIGH
TERRAIN OF WRN ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LGT RA/SN TNGT.
DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND SFC BNDRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE POPS...KEEPING
WITH PREV THINKING OF BASICALLY LOW CHANCE POPS D4-7. GFS HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM. THE SHRTWV THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS A LEE SFC LOW ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EFFECTIVELY WASHES OUT BY LATE TUE AFTER
CREATING A WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER
OHIO VLY...STRETCHING THIN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND SCATTERING OUT
LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CNTRL APLCNS TUE INTO
WED. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS...A SUBSEQUENT CLOSED LOW CUTTING
OFF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THEN TAKES A SRN ROUTE DOWN INTO THE
SRN APLCNS...THEN SLIDING A POTENT AND GUSTY SFC LOW UP THE
APLCN CHAIN FRI-SAT. THE EUROPEAN MAKES LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE
MID-LATE WEEK DYNAMICS...BASICALLY DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN US WHICH GRADUALLY DRAGS A TROF AXIS OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE COMPLETE DISCONTINUITY IN
HANDLING THESE FEATURES BEYOND D3...WILL KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE POPS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE M/U30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLC...AND MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEG
COLDER. MANY AREAS XPCD TO DROP BELOW FRZG FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
THE GROWING SEASON ENDED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. MOISTURE INCRS FROM
THE WEAK SLY FLOW TUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SKIES ARE XPCD TO BE
CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY-MOCLDY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ONCE THE WEAKENING
TROF SPREADS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUE THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONGOING SHRA MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS W OF BLUE RDG. XPC SAME TO
SPREAD EWD ACRS NRN ZONES TDA. ATTM...WILL CARRY SHRA ONLY AT KMRB
AND KCHO...AS CONFIDENCE IN SEWD DVLPMT OF PCPN COMPARATIVELY LOW.
AMENDMENTS TO TAFS ARE XPCD AS RADAR TRENDS BECOME EVIDENT. ANY
PCPN SHUD END BY LATE MRNG.
BKN LOW CLDS SHUD ERODE LATE THIS EVE.
HIPRES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUE INTO WED...KEEPING
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SLY WINDS INCRG AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING THIS MRNG...
XPCG WINDS TO INCR SLGTLY ACRS SRN MRN ZONES. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE
SMALL CRAFT ADZY THRU THIS MRNG. GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE PSBL.
WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE THIS AFTN WITH APRCH OF SFC TROF AXIS.
A SCA POSTED FOR SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE WATERS...MARGINAL AND
INTERMITTENT 20 KT GUSTS IN WLY FLOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BREEZIER...WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION AND NWLY WINDS INCRG MAINLY OVER THE WATER TWD MID-LATE AFTN
AS THE MID LEVEL TROF SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HIPRES WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING 1-1.5 FT ABV XPCD VALUES. WITH SLY WINDS ACRS BAY
TDA...THIS TREND MAY CONT THRU TDA. BUT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
XPCD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537.
&&
$$
KRAMAR/SCHOOR
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080724
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
MAY BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PROGRESSING EASTWARD. COOLER
AIR AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THUS A MORE SEASONABLE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
WITH ONLY SLIGHT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS MORNING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF SUB NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINKED TO
SHORTWAVES/REINFORCING COLD FRONTS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF
MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER-PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HUDSON BAY.
FIRST IN SERIES IS TIMED FOR AN EVENING APPROACH/OVERNIGHT
PASSAGE WITH ANOTHER TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. POPS
WERE STRUCTURED FOR OP MDL/SREF MID LEVEL THERMAL TROFS WHICH WILL
SERVE TO DEEPEN MIXING LAYER SUFFICIENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT A STRIP OF LIKELY NUMBERS WAS
INCLUDED ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES TO THE NORTH OF I 80 WHERE
WESTERLY BOUNDARYLY LAYER WIND OVER LAKE ERIE MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION ON DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW WILL
DRIVE THE INVERSION DOWN AND SNUFF PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WAVES MOVING
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PLAN TO
GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED IN THE SHOWERS...NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS
HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE RAINFALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BRIEFLY
SCATTER OUT WITH MID CLOUDS IN A THIN DRY SLOT. AFTER THE DRY SLOT
MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS TO THEN PUSH
IN...BEFORE LOW VFR CEILINGS ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW VFR
CEILING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY MONDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MVFR STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/33
000
FXUS61 KPHI 080719
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
219 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE CONSIDERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS HIGH AND THE AIRMASS SATURATED, SOME FOG
HAS FORMED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CLEARED YESTERDAY EVENING.
WITH A LIGHT S TO SE FLOW, SOME FOG WILL ALSO FORM OFF OF DELAWARE
AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS AS WELL AS FROM THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE, THERE
WERE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION OVERTOP OF THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK UNTIL FROPA. ALSO, ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
INTO THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WERE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS GEORGIA
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PA
AS EVIDENCED ON RADAR. AS THE FRONT HEADS EAST, THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT WEAKENS, BUT CONSIDERING
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS, I PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY
POPS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WHICH WILL BE CHC.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ALL DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING TOO WARM. THE HIGH TEMP TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WITH FROPA AS WE GET SOME TEMPORARY MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR DOWN
FROM ALOFT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
MAV TEMPS LOOK OK OR A BIT HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
I KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AS BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONT DOWN UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS OVER
NJ/DE. IF A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, WE COULD EVEN GET A LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FCST THAT.
DRY COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, IT LOOKS LIKE WILL WILL HOLD CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WE REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT WITH
CAA, A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
POCONOS. FARTHER SOUTH, DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO HIGH BASED OFF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEW GFS SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FCST SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS EVOLVE INTO
FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DROP AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ALONG THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LOW CLOUDS (MAINLY IFR CEILINGS AT THIS
TIME) WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AS THE MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED OVER THE AREA AND THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SHOWERS LIES IN THE FACT THE
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE FRONT THE SAME WAY. THE NAM HAS DRIED
THE FRONT OUT WHERE AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WENT MORE WITH THE GFS TIMING, SUPPORTED BY THE
FACT THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES. WE STARTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO KRDG
AND KABE BY THE MORNING AND THEN STAGGERED THE ARRIVAL SOUTH AND
EAST, FINALLY REACHING KACY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CIRRUS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LACK OF MIXING
THEREFORE CAUSING A LAG IN CEILINGS IMPROVEMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
NOT OFFICIALLY EXIT THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AT THAT TIME BUT WE HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS
TIME AS WE ARE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AND MAY NEED TO READDRESS IT WITH THE 12Z TAF.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DOMINATES THE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH BUOY 44009 DROPPING TO
AROUND 3 FEET THIS MORNING AND BUOY 44065 DROPPED DOWN TO JUST BELOW
4 FEET. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE NO REASON TO ISSUE ANY SCA AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE REGION WE DO NOT EXPECT THE
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN SCA CRITERIA
FOR SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET BY THE END.
AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MAY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, WITH
THAT BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE GET
TO IT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME SET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU
CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT
WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...MEOLA
MARINE...MEOLA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080317
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF COLUMBUS WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA. A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE PINWHEELING FRONT IS CURRENTLY
IN WESTERN OHIO. WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATOCU NOW COVERING MOST
OF INDIANA AND ILLINOIS IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN OHIO BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO END FROM THE WEST...BUT SEVERAL
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER AND SCATTERED CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
THE DRY SLOT MOVES EAST. COLDER AIR ALONG WITH THE OVERCAST
STRATOCU CAN BE EPECTED SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES INDICATE PRECIP WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIQUID DURING THE DAY...WITH
A MIX PSBL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
WITH FLOW WESTERLY...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE NORTH WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF PIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WAVES MOVING
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PLAN TO
GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY.
BROKEN CEILINGS 3000 TO 4000 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY MONDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MVFR STARTING
TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080250
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
950 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PER 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...STUBBORN LLVL CLDNS/MSTR LINGERING INVOF
PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN SHR...OTRW GENLY SKC AND MILD ACRS FA SO
FAR THIS EVE. APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE W SPRDG CLDNS EWD AND CLSR
TO FA...BUT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT CPL/FEW HRS...CONDS WL RMN MCLR
AWAY FM IMMEDIATE CST. KEPT FG MENTION INVOF ERN SHR (ESP LWR
MD)...WHL SLOWING DN SHRA CVRG ACRS THE FA...GENLY CONFINING POPS
TO CNTRL/WRN AREAS OF FA. LO TEMPS TRIMMED BY A CPL OF DEGS F MOST
PLCS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUED WITH THE 30-40% POPS DURING THE DAY SAT AS THE WEAKENING
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SAT EVENING. EXPECT POST-FRONTAL
CLEARING TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WRN PTNS OF THE
REGION BY LATE SAT AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I-95...WITH THE
DEEPENING WRLY LLVL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW SUN AND MON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES OFF VA CST STILL SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST. WESTERN
EDGE OF SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE LOW STILL ALONG THE
COAST/OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR EASTERN SHORE
(INCL SBY) UNTIL 21Z. OTW...VFR CONDS (FAIR CU FIELD NEAR 3 KFT
ALONG ERN VA) FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/ ERLY EVNG ACROSS MAINLAND
VA AND NE NC AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION. EXPECT MARINE
CLOUD LAYER TO BUILD BACK INTO THE COAST (INCL SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG)
WITH LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. NEAR CSTL SITES TO MAINLY SEE
FOG.
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND CROSS THE REGION ON SAT WITH A CHC OF
SHRAS/REDUCED AVN CONDS AFTER 12Z. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA
FOR SUN INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 250NM OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER
EAST. ALLOWED SCA TO DROP SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES WITH SEAS BELOW
5FT OFF DUCK AND BUOY 44099. SEAS SLOWLY DECREASING AT BUOY
44009...NOW BELOW 6 FT...THO WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES UNTIL 1 AM.
A COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE WATERS SAT AFTN...EXPECT WNDS AND SEAS/WAVES
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN
INTO TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...ALB/BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KLWX 080217 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
SEEN ON SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS ATTM WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A CDFNT APPROACHES. GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. GFS AND RUC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER AND
NAM/SREF SLOWER. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP TO THE FASTER
MODELS AS LATEST 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF HAVE TRENDED FASTER. IN ANY
CASE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BEST
UPPER SUPPORT PASSING TO THE NORTH. TIMING OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 09-15Z SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT INCREDIBLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
LOW POPS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
QUICKLY RETREATS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVASION OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z ECMWF IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE NOR AS FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
GFS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THERE/S MORE DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER...AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OR NOT.
FOLLOWING HPC...HAVE TAKEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES/AREAS OF
LIFT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK /FRIDAY/...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z NAM WITH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
AFFECT THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND SREFS BRING MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE NAM BRINGING IN ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES
LATER SATURDAY MORNING. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
SREFS...BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC YET. NO IFR CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY...BUT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS /GUSTS/ MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THAN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY...BUT QUICKLY RETREATS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS
TO SWITCH TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEPARTURES
MAY INCREASE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF FOOT...BUT ALL LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSA
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
000
FXUS61 KPHI 080112
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
800 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER OFF THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN
PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ZONES, AFM, PFM UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY CONDITIONS AND FOG.
MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
REFORM IN PLACES WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH DAYBREAK, WE`VE INCLUDED
THE MENTION OF FOG. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT, BUT WE
WOULD LIKE TO SEE A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER.
WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND OR THE HIGH DEW POINTS, TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, SOME OF OUR LOWS WILL
ONLY FALL BACK TO "NORMAL HIGH" LEVELS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT, I THREW IN A 20
POP FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DIDN`T SEE A NEED TO ADJUST SATURDAY`S POPS TOO MUCH. I`LL CONTINUE
TO PAINT LIKELIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES WITH CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT WE SHOULD TYPICALLY SEE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS, THE ECMWF, AND
THERE ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN GENERAL, WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
CONUS EVOLVE INTO FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. NOT TOO MANY CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY
TO THE WEST OF OUR TERMINAL AREA AND ITS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING E. WE
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS EVENING AWAY FROM KACY AND KMIV AS
IT LOOKS WE MIGHT LOSE OUR MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WE NEVER FCST THE
LOSS OF MVFR CIGS AT KACY AND KMIV BECAUSE OF THE WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR CIG) WILL REFORM
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE
CLOUDS WILL FORM AND PREVENT IFR FOG OR IF THE IFR FOG WILL FORM
FIRST AND THEN A LOW STRATUS CIG WILL BUILD UP AND SPREAD FROM
THERE. WE BELIEVE EACH SCENARIO IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL OCCUR AFTER
THE EVENING FLIGHTS ARE DONE AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE OF THIS IN LATER AMENDMENTS AND OR THE 06Z TAFS. IFR OR
BORDERLINE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT CDFNT DEVELOPS. THIS
SHOULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AROUND MID
MORNING. THE SHOWER TIMING IS BASED ON A GFS AND WRF MODEL
COMPROMISE. AFTER THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH, CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL WAIT FOR AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO PASS AND PROBABLY NOT MOVE THROUGH TIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A SECOND SHOT OF SHRAS THEN, BUT
CHANCES RIGHT NOW ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THR KPHL TAF.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WON`T HAVE MUCH WEATHER WITH IT FOR US, THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BE FRESH AND MUCH COLDER AS OUR 850MB TEMPS DROP
FROM 10C TO -2 TO -3C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE AND VFR.
HERE IS THE FRZG LVL DATA FOR PHL/IPT.
08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00
PHL 12925 12220 11460 09595 09235 06580 04160 03990 04080
IPT 11850 11715 09295 08395 05865 02890 000// 03480 02680
FIRST THREE FIGURES ARE THE FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT AND THE OTHER TWO
ARE THE RELATIVE AT THE FREEZING LVL.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO JAMES BAY CANADA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DOMINATES THE WX THROUGH THURSDAY.
NOTE: THE KPHL AND KILG METARS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. NO WORD HAS BEEN RECEIVED AS TO WHETHER THE PROBLEM
HAS BEEN PERMANENTLY FIXED.
&&
.MARINE...
QUICKSCAT WINDS SHOWS THE WIND PROFILE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEARLY 300 SM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN AND MOVING AWAY. I
ENCOURAGE MARINERS TO LOOK AT THESE WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SEE
EQUIPMENT SECTION TO SEE WHERE TO GET THEM. THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT IT VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SEAS AT THE AMBROSE PLATFORM (44065) AND BUOY 44009 ARE 4
OR 5 FT WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
NO FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME AND NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH A 24 HOUR PERIOD. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BUT THE AIR ALOFT IS
WARM AND MAY NOT MIX THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER
THEY WILL STILL BE GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RUSH TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT RAISED FOR POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
FOR PART OF SUNDAY FOR THE WINDS. THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THE FRONT PASSES BUT WIND WAVES WILL BE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO GIVE US A COMBINED SEA
STATE NEARING 5 FT.
CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED OFFSHORE WITH NO GALES IN EFFECT FOR
THE CANYONS.
A BROAD CYCLONIC(OFFSHORE FLOW) WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THE RECORD...THE LAST WIND EVENT OR GALE WARNING WE HAD IS NOW
THE 31ST TIME GALES HAVE BEEN RAISED SINCE OCT 11, 2007. A PRETTY
ACTIVE YEAR ON THE WATER INDEED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME SET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU
CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT
WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/EBERWINE
MARINE...EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 072323
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST
IN SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS REMAINED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. IN GENERAL, WE SEE LITTLE CHANGE FOR TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH DAYBREAK, I`VE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
FOG. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT, BUT WE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER.
WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, SOME OF OUR LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK
TO "NORMAL HIGH" LEVELS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT, I THREW IN A 20
POP FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DIDN`T SEE A NEED TO ADJUST SATURDAY`S POPS TOO MUCH. I`LL CONTINUE
TO PAINT LIKELIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES WITH CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT WE SHOULD TYPICALLY SEE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS, THE ECMWF, AND
THERE ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN GENERAL, WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
CONUS EVOLVE INTO FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. NOT TOO MANY CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY
TO THE WEST OF OUR TERMINAL AREA AND ITS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING E. WE
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS EVENING AWAY FROM KACY AND KMIV AS
IT LOOKS WE MIGHT LOSE OUR MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WE NEVER FCST THE
LOSS OF MVFR CIGS AT KACY AND KMIV BECAUSE OF THE WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR CIG) WILL REFORM
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE
CLOUDS WILL FORM AND PREVENT IFR FOG OR IF THE IFR FOG WILL FORM
FIRST AND THEN A LOW STRATUS CIG WILL BUILD UP AND SPREAD FROM
THERE. WE BELIEVE EACH SCENARIO IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL OCCUR AFTER
THE EVENING FLIGHTS ARE DONE AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE OF THIS IN LATER AMENDMENTS AND OR THE 06Z TAFS. IFR OR
BORDERLINE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT CDFNT DEVELOPS. THIS
SHOULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AROUND MID
MORNING. THE SHOWER TIMING IS BASED ON A GFS AND WRF MODEL
COMPROMISE. AFTER THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH, CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL WAIT FOR AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO PASS AND PROBABLY NOT MOVE THROUGH TIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A SECOND SHOT OF SHRAS THEN, BUT
CHANCES RIGHT NOW ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THR KPHL TAF.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WON`T HAVE MUCH WEATHER WITH IT FOR US, THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BE FRESH AND MUCH COLDER AS OUR 850MB TEMPS DROP
FROM 10C TO -2 TO -3C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE AND VFR.
HERE IS THE FRZG LVL DATA FOR PHL/IPT.
08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00
PHL 12925 12220 11460 09595 09235 06580 04160 03990 04080
IPT 11850 11715 09295 08395 05865 02890 000// 03480 02680
FIRST THREE FIGURES ARE THE FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT AND THE OTHER TWO
ARE THE RELATIVE AT THE FREEZING LVL.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO JAMES BAY CANADA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DOMINATES THE WX THROUGH THURSDAY.
NOTE: THE KPHL AND KILG METARS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. NO WORD HAS BEEN RECEIVED AS TO WHETHER THE PROBLEM
HAS BEEN PERMANENTLY FIXED.
&&
.MARINE...
QUICKSCAT WINDS SHOWS THE WIND PROFILE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEARLY 300 SM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN AND MOVING AWAY. I
ENCOURAGE MARINERS TO LOOK AT THESE WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SEE
EQUIPMENT SECTION TO SEE WHERE TO GET THEM. THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT IT VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SEAS AT THE AMBROSE PLATFORM (44065) AND BUOY 44009 ARE
AROUND 5 FT WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
NO FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME AND NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH A 24 HOUR PERIOD. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BUT THE AIR ALOFT IS
WARM AND MAY NOT MIX THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER
THEY WILL STILL BE GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RUSH TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT RAISED FOR POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
FOR PART OF SUNDAY FOR THE WINDS. THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THE FRONT PASSES BUT WIND WAVES WILL BE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO GIVE US A COMBINED SEA
STATE NEARING 5 FT.
CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED OFFSHORE WITH NO GALES IN EFFECT FOR
THE CANYONS.
A BROAD CYCLONIC(OFFSHORE FLOW) WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THE RECORD...THE LAST WIND EVENT OR GALE WARNING WE HAD IS NOW
THE 31ST TIME GALES HAVE BEEN RAISED SINCE OCT 11, 2007. A PRETTY
ACTIVE YEAR ON THE WATER INDEED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME SET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU
CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT
WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/EBERWINE
MARINE...EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072108
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD...
WITH THE DEFORMATION IN BTWN CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE AND THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST. BACK EDGE OF THE LOW LVL CLOUDS ASSCD WITH
THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS BEEN GRADUALLY PROGRESSING E THROUGH THE FCST
AREA. CURRENTLY...CLEARING HAS ENCOMPASSED ALL OF SERN VA AND NERN
NC...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER ERN SHORE.
TONIGHT...AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE ERN AREAS THIS EVENING...
GIVEN THE LACK OF DAYTIME MIXING (DRYING) IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING
THE DAY...ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATION FOG TOWARD MIDNIGHT
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM SFC WINDS. THIS BEFORE WE SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT LEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...THE BULK OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS. THIS GIVEN THE RATHER NARROW
MOISTURE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT (LIMITED MSTR TAPPED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO)...COINCIDING WITH THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING EFFECTS WITH THE
SW PRE-FRONTAL LLVL FLOW E OF THE MNTNS. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LIMITED (<50%) RAIN CHANCES LATE...AND MAINLY W OF I-95. AT
MOST EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUED WITH THE 30-40% POPS DURING THE DAY SAT AS THE WEAKENING
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SAT EVENING. EXPECT POST-FRONTAL
CLEARING TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WRN PTNS OF THE
REGION BY LATE SAT AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I-95...WITH THE
DEEPENING WRLY LLVL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW SUN AND MON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES OFF VA CST STILL SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST. WESTERN
EDGE OF SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE LOW STILL ALONG THE
COAST/OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR EASTERN SHORE
(INCL SBY) UNTIL 21Z. OTW...VFR CONDS (FAIR CU FIELD NEAR 3 KFT
ALONG ERN VA) FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/ ERLY EVNG ACROSS MAINLAND
VA AND NE NC AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION. EXPECT MARINE
CLOUD LAYER TO BUILD BACK INTO THE COAST (INCL SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG)
WITH LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. NEAR CSTL SITES TO MAINLY SEE
FOG.
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND CROSS THE REGION ON SAT WITH A CHC OF
SHRAS/REDUCED AVN CONDS AFTER 12Z. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA
FOR SUN INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 250NM OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER
EAST. ALLOWED SCA TO DROP SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES WITH SEAS BELOW
5FT OFF DUCK AND BUOY 44099. SEAS SLOWLY DECREASING AT BUOY
44009...NOW BELOW 6 FT...THO WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES UNTIL 1 AM.
A COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE WATERS SAT AFTN...EXPECT WNDS AND SEAS/WAVES
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN
INTO TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KPHI 072038
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST
IN SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS REMAINED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. IN GENERAL, WE SEE LITTLE CHANGE FOR TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH DAYBREAK, I`VE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
FOG. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT, BUT WE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER.
WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, SOME OF OUR LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK
TO "NORMAL HIGH" LEVELS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT, I THREW IN A 20
POP FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DIDN`T SEE A NEED TO ADJUST SATURDAY`S POPS TOO MUCH. I`LL CONTINUE
TO PAINT LIKELIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES WITH CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT WE SHOULD TYPICALLY SEE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS, THE ECMWF, AND
THERE ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN GENERAL, WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
CONUS EVOLVE INTO FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES SEEM LIKE A WORLD AWAY BUT ARE ONLY A STATE AWAY. EAST
OF THE DELAWARE RIVER THE CIGS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE BUT A FEW BINOVC`S OCCURRING FROM PHL-ILG AND WEST THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TAKE THE CIGS DOWN TO IFR
AGAIN(ALREADY AT ACY OVC008)SEVERAL HOURS AFTER DARK. LIFR
CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z AND 13 OR 14Z. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW WILL FINALLY BURN OFF TOMORROW AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. BUT, THERE IS A HUGH SFC LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WE WON`T EXPERIENCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WX WITH
THE LOW BUT IT`S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SOMETIME
SATURDAY EVENING. JUST AS WE SHED THE DANK WX OF THE PAST FEW DAYS,
WE GET A SMALL WINDOW FOR VFR FLYING BEFORE AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
KRDG/KABE SEEING LIKELY SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY THEN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT OTHER LOCATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ALL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WON`T HAVE MUCH WEATHER WITH IT FOR US, THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BE FRESH AND MUCH COLDER AS OUR 850MB TEMPS DROP
FROM 10C TO -2 TO -3C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE AND VFR.
HERE IS THE FRZG LVL DATA FOR PHL/IPT.
08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00
PHL 12925 12220 11460 09595 09235 06580 04160 03990 04080
IPT 11850 11715 09295 08395 05865 02890 000// 03480 02680
FIRST THREE FIGURES ARE THE FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT AND THE OTHER TWO
ARE THE RELATIVE AT THE FREEZING LVL.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO JAMES BAY CANADA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DOMINATES THE WX THROUGH THURSDAY.
NOTE:THERE IS A PROBLEM WITH THE METERS AT PHL AND ILG. THERE ARE
BEING SENT TWICE A MINUTE APART. ONE OB WILL HAVE THE CIG WITH IT
THE OTHER WILL NOT. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO IDENTIFY THE PROBLEM BUT
WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RETURN TO NORMAL METER SEQUENCING UNTIL
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
QUICKSCAT WINDS SHOWS THE WIND PROFILE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEARLY 300 SM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN AND MOVING AWAY. I
ENCOURAGE MARINERS TO LOOK AT THESE WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SEE
EQUIPMENT SECTION TO SEE WHERE TO GET THEM. THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT IT VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SEAS AT THE AMBROSE PLATFORM (44065) AND BUOY 44009 ARE
AROUND 5 FT WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
NO FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME AND NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH A 24 HOUR PERIOD. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BUT THE AIR ALOFT IS
WARM AND MAY NOT MIX THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER
THEY WILL STILL BE GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RUSH TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT RAISED FOR POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
FOR PART OF SUNDAY FOR THE WINDS. THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THE FRONT PASSES BUT WIND WAVES WILL BE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO GIVE US A COMBINED SEA
STATE NEARING 5 FT.
CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED OFFSHORE WITH NO GALES IN EFFECT FOR
THE CANYONS.
A BROAD CYCLONIC(OFFSHORE FLOW) WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THE RECORD...THE LAST WIND EVENT OR GALE WARNING WE HAD IS NOW
THE 31ST TIME GALES HAVE BEEN RAISED SINCE OCT 11, 2007. A PRETTY
ACTIVE YEAR ON THE WATER INDEED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME SET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU
CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT
WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...EBERWINE
MARINE...EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071956 CCA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NAMES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN SOUTH TO MISSISSIPPI. THIS
IS CLEARLY SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A NATIONAL
RADAR PICTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S ALONG THE BAY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ALL DAY...AROUND 70
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL ONLY FILL
BACK IN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY THE CLOUD INCREASE.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z...NOT MAKING IT TO
THE METRO CORRIDOR UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z. WENT WARMER THAN THE ADJ MET
AND MAV NUMBERS GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPPER 40S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SPC HAS A GENERAL THUNDER LINE FROM LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO BALTIMORE AND LOCATIONS EAST. WITH SUCH A SMALL
AREA BEING COVERED AND LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDER...WILL KEEP JUST SHOWERS MENTIONED.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT A LOT OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT INCREDIBLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
LOW POPS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
QUICKLY RETREATS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVASION OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z ECMWF IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE NOR AS FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
GFS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THERE/S MORE DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER...AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OR NOT.
FOLLOWING HPC...HAVE TAKEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES/AREAS OF
LIFT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK /FRIDAY/...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z NAM WITH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
AFFECT THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND SREFS BRING MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE NAM BRINGING IN ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES
LATER SATURDAY MORNING. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
SREFS...BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC YET. NO IFR CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY...BUT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS /GUSTS/ MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THAN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY...BUT QUICKLY RETREATS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS
TO SWITCH TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEPARTURES
MAY INCREASE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF FOOT...BUT ALL LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...SAR
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...SAR/PELOQUIN
MARINE...SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071943
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN SOUTH TO MISSISSIPPI. THIS
IS CLEARLY SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A NATIONAL
RADAR PICTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S ALONG THE BAY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ALL DAY...AROUND 70
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL ONLY FILL
BACK IN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY THE CLOUD INCREASE.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z...NOT MAKING IT TO
THE METRO CORRIDOR UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z. WENT WARMER THAN THE ADJ MET
AND MAV NUMBERS GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPPER 40S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SPC HAS A GENERAL THUNDER LINE FROM LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO BALTIMORE AND LOCATIONS EAST. WITH SUCH A SMALL
AREA BEING COVERED AND LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDER...WILL KEEP JUST SHOWERS MENTIONED.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT A LOT OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT INCREDIBLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
LOW POPS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
QUICKLY RETREATS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVASION OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z ECMWF IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE NOR AS FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
GFS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THERE/S MORE DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER...AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OR NOT.
FOLLOWING HPC...HAVE TAKEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES/AREAS OF
LIFT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK /FRIDAY/...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z NAM WITH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
AFFECT THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND SREFS BRING MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE NAM BRINGING IN ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES
LATER SATURDAY MORNING. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
SREFS...BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC YET. NO IFR CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY...BUT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS /GUSTS/ MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THAN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY...BUT QUICKLY RETREATS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS
TO SWITCH TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEPARTURES
MAY INCREASE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF FOOT...BUT ALL LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...SAR/PELOQUIN
MARINE...SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071942
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIAL PRECIP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER ENTERING EXTREME WESTERN
PA. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BEGIN TO GET A PUSH FROM A MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVING INTO INDIANA THIS AFTN...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO
WESTERN PA THIS EVENING...AND EXITING INTO CENTRAL PA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
GENERAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OF ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH. PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OHIO OVERNIGHT
AND ACROSS WESTERN PA SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
SATURDAY BRINGING A DRY WEDGE BETWEEN THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE
UPPER LOW STILL OFF TO THE NW. DESPITE LITTLE/NO PRECIP...SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RISE LITTLE GIVEN CLOUDS/COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES INDICATE PRECIP WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIQUID DURING THE DAY...WITH
A MIX PSBL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
WITH FLOW WESTERLY...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE NORTH WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF PIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WAVES MOVING
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PLAN TO
GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY.
BROKEN CEILINGS 3000 TO 4000 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY MONDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MVFR STARTING
TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071836
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PCPN FROM ERN SHORE AS CSTL LOW
AND ASSCTD PCPN NOW PULLING FRTHR OUT TO SEA. KEPT PTCHY FOG IN
FOR NXT FEW HRS GIVEN BKN-OVC SC DECK SCATTERING OUT.
STACKED UPR LVL LOW OFF OF DELMARVA PROGGED TO MOVE FRTHR E AND
AWAY FROM RGN AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF FROM THE W. LTST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOMR WRAPARND ECHOES AS FAR W AS THE VA/MD ERN SHORES. MAY
HAVE TO CONT SLGHT CHC POPS THRU 7 AM ALONG THE ERN SHORE...DECISION
WILL BE MADE JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS.
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...WILL CONT TO MENTION THE PTCHY FOG ERLY
THIS AM (FOG ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT).
OTW...TCSTNS SHOW DRYING IN COLUMN ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE W OF
CHES BAY. CLOUDY SKIES THIS AM BECOME PT-M SUNNY ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTRN. SINCE WE ALRDY HAVE A FREEZE..CUD DESCRIBE TDYS WRMTH AS
"INDIAN SUMMER". H85 TMPS SPRT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S...COOLEST
ALONG THE COAST (65-70 OXB) RANGING TO U70S ACROSS SW. NOT QUITE TO
RECORD LVLS THOUGH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BLO FOR TDYS RECORDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES E AS CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE W. XPCT CLDS
TO INCRS AFTR MIDNIGHT W-E. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE SREF WRT THE FROPA.
MSTR FIELDS INDCT A FEW SHWRS PSBL OVR XTREME WRN CNTYS AFTR 09Z TONITE
(BASICALLY ON A LKU-FVX LINE). AIRMASS BASICALLY TO DRY FRTHR E TO SPRT
ANY PCPN. ANTHR MILD NITE AHEAD WITH LOW IN THE 50S.
UPR TROF OVR GT LAKES RGN AMPLIFIES ON SAT. TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS
THE RGN THRU OUT THE DAY. LTST DATA SPRTS BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
(SHWRS) WILL LIFT NE SAT ACROSS WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF FA WITH LTL IN THE
WAY OF SPRT ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS. THUS... HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLGHT
CHC ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS SAT AFTRN. ELSEWHERE KEPT A 30 POP FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY VRY LIMITED WITH FROPA. HOWEVER...DUE TO BNDRY COMING THRU
IN MID AFTRN...CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SAT AFTRN FROM NRN
NECK ON NE ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...BUT WILL OUT OF FCST ATTM AS
CHC IS VRY LOW. HIGHS U60S N TO L-M70S S.
FRNT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT EVE. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS LWR MD
ERN SHORE AREA THRU EVE HRS AS MSTR LINGERS FOR A FEW HRS. SKIES THEN
BECOME MAINLY CLR SAT NITE AND COOLER. TMPS DROP INTO THE 40S TO L50S.
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY DESPITE PLNTY OF SUN. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY ERY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S...U50S TO L60S MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES OFF VA CST STILL SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST. WESTERN
EDGE OF SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE LOW STILL ALONG THE
COAST/OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR EASTERN SHORE
(INCL SBY) UNTIL 21Z. OTW...VFR CONDS (FAIR CU FIELD NEAR 3 KFT
ALONG ERN VA) FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/ ERLY EVNG ACROSS MAINLAND
VA AND NE NC AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION. EXPECT MARINE
CLOUD LAYER TO BUILD BACK INTO THE COAST (INCL SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG)
WITH LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. NEAR CSTL SITES TO MAINLY SEE
FOG.
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND CROSS THE REGION ON SAT WITH A CHC OF
SHRAS/REDUCED AVN CONDS AFTER 12Z. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA
FOR SUN INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 250NM OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER
EAST. ALLOWED SCA TO DROP SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES WITH SEAS BELOW
5FT OFF DUCK AND BUOY 44099. SEAS SLOWLY DECREASING AT BUOY
44009...NOW BELOW 6 FT...THO WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES UNTIL 1 AM.
A COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE WATERS SAT AFTN...EXPECT WNDS AND SEAS/WAVES
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN
INTO TUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/7:
RIC...79 IN 1978...1975
ORF...78 IN 1975...1938
SBY...78 IN 1938
ECG...81 IN 1986
WAL...69 IN 2005...1996
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...BAJ/TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071759
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1259 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PCPN FROM ERN SHORE AS CSTL LOW
AND ASSCTD PCPN NOW PULLING FRTHR OUT TO SEA. KEPT PTCHY FOG IN
FOR NXT FEW HRS GIVEN BKN-OVC SC DECK SCATTERING OUT.
STACKED UPR LVL LOW OFF OF DELMARVA PROGGED TO MOVE FRTHR E AND
AWAY FROM RGN AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF FROM THE W. LTST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOMR WRAPARND ECHOES AS FAR W AS THE VA/MD ERN SHORES. MAY
HAVE TO CONT SLGHT CHC POPS THRU 7 AM ALONG THE ERN SHORE...DECISION
WILL BE MADE JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS.
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...WILL CONT TO MENTION THE PTCHY FOG ERLY
THIS AM (FOG ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT).
OTW...TCSTNS SHOW DRYING IN COLUMN ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE W OF
CHES BAY. CLOUDY SKIES THIS AM BECOME PT-M SUNNY ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTRN. SINCE WE ALRDY HAVE A FREEZE..CUD DESCRIBE TDYS WRMTH AS
"INDIAN SUMMER". H85 TMPS SPRT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S...COOLEST
ALONG THE COAST (65-70 OXB) RANGING TO U70S ACROSS SW. NOT QUITE TO
RECORD LVLS THOUGH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BLO FOR TDYS RECORDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES E AS CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE W. XPCT CLDS
TO INCRS AFTR MIDNIGHT W-E. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE SREF WRT THE FROPA.
MSTR FIELDS INDCT A FEW SHWRS PSBL OVR XTREME WRN CNTYS AFTR 09Z TONITE
(BASICALLY ON A LKU-FVX LINE). AIRMASS BASICALLY TO DRY FRTHR E TO SPRT
ANY PCPN. ANTHR MILD NITE AHEAD WITH LOW IN THE 50S.
UPR TROF OVR GT LAKES RGN AMPLIFYS ON SAT. TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS
THE RGN THRU OUT THE DAY. LTST DATA SPRTS BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
(SHWRS) WILL LIFT NE SATACROSS WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF FA WITH LTL IN THE
WAY OF SPRT ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS. THUS... HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLGHT
CHC ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS SAT AFTRN. ELSEWHERE KEPT A 30 POP FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY VRY LIMITED WITH FROPA. HOWEVER...DUE TO BNDRY COMING THRU
IN MID AFTRN...CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SAT AFTRN FROM NRN
NECK ON NE ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...BUT WILL OUT OF FCST ATTM AS
CHC IS VRY LOW. HIGHS U60S N TO L-M70S S.
FRNT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT EVE. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS LWR MD
ERN SHORE AREA THRU EVE HRS AS MSTR LINGERS FOR A FEW HRS. SKIES THEN
BECOME MAINLY CLR SAT NITE AND COOLER. TMPS DROP INTO THE 40S TO L50S.
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY DESPITE PLNTY OF SUN. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY ERY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S...U50S TO L60S MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CIGS (ESPLY) WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNG OVR ERN
TAF SITES...AS LO PRES OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE E. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN...AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
OVR THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE WKND
INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRNT SAT WITH A
SML CHC OF SHRAS. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE FOR THE CSTL WTRS FOR TDY INTO TNGT...AS
SEAS STAY UP UNTIL LO PRES OFF THE CST MOVES FARTHER AWAY TO THE E.
OTHRWISE...COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE REGION SAT...BUT WNDS AND
SEAS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE
AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/7:
RIC...79 IN 1978
ORF...78 IN 1975
SBY...78 IN 1938
ECG...81 IN 1986
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 071621 AAA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1121 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY OFFSHORE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING TOWARD OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS TIME YESTERDAY THE LOW WAS 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE AND TODAY IT IS ABOUT 285 EAST SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL
MARINE AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT SOME BRIGHTENING UP TO THE
WEST IS OCCURRING AS WESTERN EDGE ERODES AWAY. MAV TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY OK CONSIDERING THE HIGH OVERNIGHT LOWS, EVEN THOUGH
WE WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING
ALOFT. HOWEVER, SINCE THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS STILL QUITE
MOIST SO LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AFTER DARK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THIS FRONT SHOULD
SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SEASONABLY COOL AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AS WE DEVELOP COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS MEANS WE
WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION TYPE STRATOCU DEVELOP. HOWEVER, NO PCPN IS
FCST WITH THIS FLOW AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAV TEMPS WERE GENERALLY OK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS
SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING THE REGION THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN. THE GFS H8 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES INDICATE ANY PCPN SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST AS YESTERDAY, EAST OF THE RIVER IS IFR DUE TO CIGS AND WEST
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS OCCURRING. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS OPEN UP EVEN
MORE SINCE THE TOPS OF THE MARINE LAYER IS ONLY A COUPLE THOUSAND
FEET UP. VSBY`S ARE NO PROBLEM AND LITTLE IF ANY DRIZZLE REMAINS.
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
MIXING TO LIFT THE CIGS UP FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THIS SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AND ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN. WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE FAIR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE LOWERED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE OCEAN. NINE SECOND 6
FOOTERS ARE STILL BE REPORTED AT 44009 BUT WILL BE COMING DOWN AND
THE NEW AMBROSE PLATFORM IS UNDER 5 FEET. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN SO.
LOW PRESSURE IS 285 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
AND WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE. WAVES ON THE
BEACHES ARE UNDER 3 FEET MOST AREAS. THE SURF HAS CALMED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WINDS COULD
INCREASE, AS WELL AS SEAS, BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP FAIR BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WIND DIRECTION ON BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN OUT SINCE AUGUST 9TH AND
THE SPEED FAILED AT 1 AM THURSDAY. THE BUOY IS ON THE SCHEDULE TO
GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME YET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU CAN GET AN IDEA
OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV
AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB
SITE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER/EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...STAUBER/EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/EBERWINE
MARINE...ROBERTSON/EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071513
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1013 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE SKY COVER. MOSTLY SUNNY
WEST OF A LINE FROM FREDERICK COUNTY MARYLAND TO DC TO LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS ARE FURTHER EAST
ON THE DELMARVA...A PERIPHERAL BAND LOOKS TO BE TRYING TO SKIRT
SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD FIELD. THEN...THERE ARE
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL
GRADUALLY FILL IN WITH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY TO
WORD THE ZONES ACCORDINGLY.
LOOKS LIKE A WARM NOVEMBER DAY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING RECORDS.
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF THE
THICKER CLOUDS STICK AROUND FROM BALTIMORE TO JUST EAST OF DC INTO
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS MENTIONED...CUTOFF LOW OVER UPPER MIDWEST. JET RUNNING FM THE
GULF STATES TO LAKE HURON W/ THE SFC CD FNT CAUGHT UP IN IT.
SHOWER ACTVTY SOMEWHAT SPOTTY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. BUT THIS IS
PROGGED TO MAKE A SLOW STEADY EWD PROGRESSION...AND HV MAINTAINED
THE AFTR MDNGT POPS...BEGINNING IN THE W AND REACHING THE BAY BY
MRNG. QPF`S WILL BE LOW.
NOT A COOL NGT FOR NOV - M40S FAR W...M50S E.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF UPPER VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE GRT LKS REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. THEY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHRA/S AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...GRT LKS AND INTO NRN PRTNS OF THE OH VLY. LITTLE
TO NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO THE MID ATLNC. THE
FIRST VORT MAX WILL ACROSS WI/MI ON SAT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CNTL APLCHNS EARLY SAT. PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
MORE STEADY ACTIVITY FROM THE PTMC HILANDS AND ACROSS THE
MASON-DIXON LINE W/ NRN MD SEEING THE BEST CHNCS...TAPERING OFF
SOUTH OF THE I-66 CRDR. MORE ISLTD SHRA ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE I-95 CRDR DRNG THE EARLY AFTN SAT W/ PSBLE BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTHENING OF THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE MID ATLNC COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL NOT AN ARCTIC BLAST
SITUATION. MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING WRAPPED UP IN THE UPPER
LOW REGIME AS IT ROTATES UP N/WRD INTO THE ERN QUEBEC. BREEZY CONDS
ON SUNDAY AS FIRST UPPER VORT SLIDES THE TROF AXIS OVER THE MID
ATLNC...PICKING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST DRNG THE AFTN. THE STARK BUT
SHORT-LIVED ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID ATLNC MONDAY INTO TUES
WILL KEEP TEMPS MODERATED INTO THE M50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH SFC
WIND SPEEDS NOT AS HIGH AS UNDER NW FLOW BUT MONDAY WILL A FAIRLY
DRY AUTUMN DAY.
THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM LOOKING LESS DYNAMIC...MORE UNCERTAIN AND
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE ERN SEABOARD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GFS NOW IN A
BIT MORE AGREEMENT W/ ECMWF /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ ON THE SLOW DOWN OF
THE SETTING UP OF THE MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS
LAG WILL KEEP THE MID MS VLY UNDER PRECIP FOR LONGER...AS WELL AS
THE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH
VLY FOR LONGER AS WELL. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP COULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE MID ATLNC FROM TUES INTO WED. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHNC RANGE
THO...STILL THINKING THE TROF MAY DEEPEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...MAKING A DIRECT ROUTE INTO THE MID ATLNC FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT LIVED...SHOULD
BE CLEARED OUT BY NOON.
A COLD FRONT W/ INTERMITTENT BREEZY CONDS AND A FEW SCTD-ISLTD
SHRA/S...ESPC ACROSS NRN MD AND AREAS NORTH OF I-66. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRES AND DRIER CONDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUES
INTO WED...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO PROBS ON THE WATERS TDA OR TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT AFTN/EVNG. WINDS EXPTD
TO BE JUST BELOW SCA CONDS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY EXPTD TO
BE A BIT MORE BREEZY...W/ SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED FOR A PERIOD OF THE
LATE MRNG/AFTN FROM THE GUSTY W-NW/RLY WINDS...ESPC THE NRN BAY
REGION. HIGH PRES WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...W/
A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...SAR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WOODY!/GMS
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071359
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
900 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF NOVEMBER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY...WITH INITIAL PRECIP
REACHING EASTERN OHIO BY THIS AFTN...AND ACROSS WESTERN PA BY
THIS EVENING. BROUGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY BY THE EVENING HOURS FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS MAIN FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE EVENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TOO FAR OUT TO TRY AND NAIL DOWN ANY
TIMING WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS
FEATURE. WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES. WINDS
STILL SEEM TO HAVE TOO MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO PICK UP MUCH
LAKE MOISTURE. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WIND FETCH ALIGNS ALONG LAKE ERIE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT GFS ENSEMBLE/GEFS/ AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS
SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JETSTREAM
SHOULD THEN STEER THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY MID
WEEK.
HOWEVER THE MODELS DISAGREE ON LONG THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST...AS
ONLY ABOUT HALF THE MODEL MEMBERS SHOW THE SYSTEM BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SO CONCUR WITH HPC THINKING
ON PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BEING IN THE CHANCE RANGE THIS
PERIOD.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DUE TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION OF
JETSTREAM LIKEWISE CONCUR WITH HPC GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT GFS MOS
VALUES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL. SO THE PREVALENT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING...THERE CAN BE STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS IN THE
MVFR RANGE WITH A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS YIELDING MVFR
VISIBILITIES.
ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY WILL TAP GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
DUE TO UPSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS.
BY MONDAY THE MVFR SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASED. HOWEVER
BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A SECOND SYSTEM MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MVFR STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071028
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
528 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PCPN FROM ERN SHORE AS CSTL LOW
AND ASSCTD PCPN NOW PULLING FRTHR OUT TO SEA. KEPT PTCHY FOG IN
FOR NXT FEW HRS GIVEN BKN-OVC SC DECK SCATTERING OUT.
STACKED UPR LVL LOW OFF OF DELMARVA PROGGED TO MOVE FRTHR E AND
AWAY FROM RGN AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF FROM THE W. LTST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOMR WRAPARND ECHOES AS FAR W AS THE VA/MD ERN SHORES. MAY
HAVE TO CONT SLGHT CHC POPS THRU 7 AM ALONG THE ERN SHORE...DECISION
WILL BE MADE JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS.
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...WILL CONT TO MENTION THE PTCHY FOG ERLY
THIS AM (FOG ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT).
OTW...TCSTNS SHOW DRYING IN COLUMN ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE W OF
CHES BAY. CLOUDY SKIES THIS AM BECOME PT-M SUNNY ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTRN. SINCE WE ALRDY HAVE A FREEZE..CUD DESCRIBE TDYS WRMTH AS
"INDIAN SUMMER". H85 TMPS SPRT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S...COOLEST
ALONG THE COAST (65-70 OXB) RANGING TO U70S ACROSS SW. NOT QUITE TO
RECORD LVLS THOUGH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BLO FOR TDYS RECORDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES E AS CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE W. XPCT CLDS
TO INCRS AFTR MIDNIGHT W-E. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE SREF WRT THE FROPA.
MSTR FIELDS INDCT A FEW SHWRS PSBL OVR XTREME WRN CNTYS AFTR 09Z TONITE
(BASICALLY ON A LKU-FVX LINE). AIRMASS BASICALLY TO DRY FRTHR E TO SPRT
ANY PCPN. ANTHR MILD NITE AHEAD WITH LOW IN THE 50S.
UPR TROF OVR GT LAKES RGN AMPLIFYS ON SAT. TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS
THE RGN THRU OUT THE DAY. LTST DATA SPRTS BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
(SHWRS) WILL LIFT NE SATACROSS WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF FA WITH LTL IN THE
WAY OF SPRT ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS. THUS... HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLGHT
CHC ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS SAT AFTRN. ELSEWHERE KEPT A 30 POP FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY VRY LIMITED WITH FROPA. HOWEVER...DUE TO BNDRY COMING THRU
IN MID AFTRN...CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SAT AFTRN FROM NRN
NECK ON NE ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...BUT WILL OUT OF FCST ATTM AS
CHC IS VRY LOW. HIGHS U60S N TO L-M70S S.
FRNT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT EVE. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS LWR MD
ERN SHORE AREA THRU EVE HRS AS MSTR LINGERS FOR A FEW HRS. SKIES THEN
BECOME MAINLY CLR SAT NITE AND COOLER. TMPS DROP INTO THE 40S TO L50S.
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY DESPITE PLNTY OF SUN. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY ERY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S...U50S TO L60S MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CIGS (ESPLY) WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNG OVR ERN
TAF SITES...AS LO PRES OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE E. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN...AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
OVR THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE WKND
INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRNT SAT WITH A
SML CHC OF SHRAS. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE FOR THE CSTL WTRS FOR TDY INTO TNGT...AS
SEAS STAY UP UNTIL LO PRES OFF THE CST MOVES FARTHER AWAY TO THE E.
OTHRWISE...COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE REGION SAT...BUT WNDS AND
SEAS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE
AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/7:
RIC...79 IN 1978
ORF...78 IN 1975
SBY...78 IN 1938
ECG...81 IN 1986
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 070906
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
406 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WENT OUT AND TOOK AN OB AT 1 AM - LOW OVC. TOOK ANOTHER AT 3 AM -
SKC. 11-3.9 MU STLT SHOWS A VERY CLR DEMARKATION BTWN THE 2. ATTM
CLRG JUST TO THE W OF DC. THEREFORE QUSTN DURG RMNDR OF OVRNGT HRS
WL BE HOW MUCH FOG IS GOING TO FORM? IN MANY PLACES SVRL DEGS BTWN
TEMP AND DWPT. WE`LL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAY HV TO DO A PRE-DAWN
UPDATE..OR ATL EAST ISSUE SOME NOWCASTS...B4 SHIFT IS OVER.
NEXT QUSTN IS HOW MUCH CLD DVLPMNT WL THERE BE TDA? MDLS REALLY
HANG ONTO THE LO LVL MOISTURE...IN FACT THESE WANT IT TO BE CLDY
RIGHT NOW RATHER THAN CLR WHICH MAKES ME WONDER ABT THE ABILITY TO
HANDLE CLDS TDA. BUT METEOROLOGICALLY - ALTHO NOT A LOT THERE HAS
BEEN SOME RAFL IN LAST TWO DAYS THIS COULD CERTAINLY TRANSLATE
INTO CU FORMATION THIS AFTN.
HIGH TEMPS TDA ACTUALLY CLOSE TO RECORDS. I`M FCSTG 72 AT IAD.
RECORD IS 74. DCA AND BWI RECORDS ARE A FEW DEGS HIGHER AND PRBLY
WON`T BE TOUCHED. BUT OVERALL A WARM DAY GIVEN UPR LVL RDG AND
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CD FNT CURRENTLY ENTERING INDIANA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED...CUTOFF LOW OVER UPPER MIDWEST. JET RUNNING FM THE
GULF STATES TO LAKE HURON W/ THE SFC CD FNT CAUGHT UP IN IT.
SHOWER ACTVTY SOMEWHAT SPOTTY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. BUT THIS IS
PROGGED TO MAKE A SLOW STEADY EWD PROGRESSION...AND HV MAINTAINED
THE AFTR MDNGT POPS...BEGINNING IN THE W AND REACHING THE BAY BY
MRNG. QPF`S WILL BE LOW.
NOT A COOL NGT FOR NOV - M40S FAR W...M50S E.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF UPPER VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE GRT LKS REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. THEY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHRA/S AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...GRT LKS AND INTO NRN PRTNS OF THE OH VLY. LITTLE
TO NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO THE MID ATLNC. THE
FIRST VORT MAX WILL ACROSS WI/MI ON SAT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CNTL APLCHNS EARLY SAT. PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
MORE STEADY ACTIVITY FROM THE PTMC HILANDS AND ACROSS THE
MASON-DIXON LINE W/ NRN MD SEEING THE BEST CHNCS...TAPERING OFF
SOUTH OF THE I-66 CRDR. MORE ISLTD SHRA ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE I-95 CRDR DRNG THE EARLY AFTN SAT W/ PSBLE BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTHENING OF THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE MID ATLNC COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL NOT AN ARCTIC BLAST
SITUATION. MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING WRAPPED UP IN THE UPPER
LOW REGIME AS IT ROTATES UP N/WRD INTO THE ERN QUEBEC. BREEZY CONDS
ON SUNDAY AS FIRST UPPER VORT SLIDES THE TROF AXIS OVER THE MID
ATLNC...PICKING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST DRNG THE AFTN. THE STARK BUT
SHORT-LIVED ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID ATLNC MONDAY INTO TUES
WILL KEEP TEMPS MODERATED INTO THE M50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH SFC
WIND SPEEDS NOT AS HIGH AS UNDER NW FLOW BUT MONDAY WILL A FAIRLY
DRY AUTUMN DAY.
THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM LOOKING LESS DYNAMIC...MORE UNCERTAIN AND
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE ERN SEABOARD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GFS NOW IN A
BIT MORE AGREEMENT W/ ECMWF /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ ON THE SLOW DOWN OF
THE SETTING UP OF THE MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS
LAG WILL KEEP THE MID MS VLY UNDER PRECIP FOR LONGER...AS WELL AS
THE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH
VLY FOR LONGER AS WELL. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP COULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE MID ATLNC FROM TUES INTO WED. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHNC RANGE
THO...STILL THINKING THE TROF MAY DEEPEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...MAKING A DIRECT ROUTE INTO THE MID ATLNC FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG FORMATION IS PSBL AT THE AIRPORTS THRU 13Z...THEN VFR TDA. LO
CHC OF RW BY MRNG SAT.
A COLD FRONT W/ INTERMITTENT BREEZY CONDS AND A FEW SCTD-ISLTD
SHRA/S...ESPC ACROSS NRN MD AND AREAS NORTH OF I-66. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRES AND DRIER CONDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUES
INTO WED...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO PROBS ON THE WATERS TDA OR TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT AFTN/EVNG. WINDS EXPTD
TO BE JUST BELOW SCA CONDS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY EXPTD TO
BE A BIT MORE BREEZY...W/ SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED FOR A PERIOD OF THE
LATE MRNG/AFTN FROM THE GUSTY W-NW/RLY WINDS...ESPC THE NRN BAY
REGION. HIGH PRES WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...W/
A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070801
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STACKED UPR LVL LOW OFF OF DELMARVA PROGGED TO MOVE FRTHR E AND
AWAY FROM RGN AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF FROM THE W. LTST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOMR WRAPARND ECHOES AS FAR W AS THE VA/MD ERN SHORES. MAY
HAVE TO CONT SLGHT CHC POPS THRU 7 AM ALONG THE ERN SHORE...DECISION
WILL BE MADE JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS.
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...WILL CONT TO MENTION THE PTCHY FOG ERLY
THIS AM (FOG ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT).
OTW...TCSTNS SHOW DRYING IN COLUMN ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE W OF
CHES BAY. CLOUDY SKIES THIS AM BECOME PT-M SUNNY ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTRN. SINCE WE ALRDY HAVE A FREEZE..CUD DESCRIBE TDYS WRMTH AS
"INDIAN SUMMER". H85 TMPS SPRT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S...COOLEST
ALONG THE COAST (65-70 OXB) RANGING TO U70S ACROSS SW. NOT QUITE TO
RECORD LVLS THOUGH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BLO FOR TDYS RECORDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES E AS CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE W. XPCT CLDS
TO INCRS AFTR MIDNIGHT W-E. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE SREF WRT THE FROPA.
MSTR FIELDS INDCT A FEW SHWRS PSBL OVR XTREME WRN CNTYS AFTR 09Z TONITE
(BASICALLY ON A LKU-FVX LINE). AIRMASS BASICALLY TO DRY FRTHR E TO SPRT
ANY PCPN. ANTHR MILD NITE AHEAD WITH LOW IN THE 50S.
UPR TROF OVR GT LAKES RGN AMPLIFYS ON SAT. TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS
THE RGN THRU OUT THE DAY. LTST DATA SPRTS BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
(SHWRS) WILL LIFT NE SATACROSS WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF FA WITH LTL IN THE
WAY OF SPRT ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS. THUS... HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLGHT
CHC ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS SAT AFTRN. ELSEWHERE KEPT A 30 POP FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY VRY LIMITED WITH FROPA. HOWEVER...DUE TO BNDRY COMING THRU
IN MID AFTRN...CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SAT AFTRN FROM NRN
NECK ON NE ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...BUT WILL OUT OF FCST ATTM AS
CHC IS VRY LOW. HIGHS U60S N TO L-M70S S.
FRNT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT EVE. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS LWR MD
ERN SHORE AREA THRU EVE HRS AS MSTR LINGERS FOR A FEW HRS. SKIES THEN
BECOME MAINLY CLR SAT NITE AND COOLER. TMPS DROP INTO THE 40S TO L50S.
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY DESPITE PLNTY OF SUN. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY ERY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S...U50S TO L60S MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CIGS (ESPLY) WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNG OVR ERN
TAF SITES...AS LO PRES OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE E. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN...AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
OVR THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE WKND
INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRNT SAT WITH A
SML CHC OF SHRAS. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE FOR THE CSTL WTRS FOR TDY INTO TNGT...AS
SEAS STAY UP UNTIL LO PRES OFF THE CST MOVES FARTHER AWAY TO THE E.
OTHRWISE...COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE REGION SAT...BUT WNDS AND
SEAS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE
AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/7:
RIC...79 IN 1978
ORF...78 IN 1975
SBY...78 IN 1938
ECG...81 IN 1986
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 070753
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
253 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF NOVEMBER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS BY DAYBREAK ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
BROUGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY BY THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA AS MAIN FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE EVENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TOO FAR OUT TO TRY AND NAIL DOWN ANY
TIMING WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS
FEATURE. WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES. WINDS
STILL SEEM TO HAVE TOO MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO PICK UP MUCH
LAKE MOISTURE. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WIND FETCH ALIGNS ALONG LAKE ERIE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT GFS ENSEMBLE/GEFS/ AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS
SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JETSTREAM
SHOULD THEN STEER THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY MID
WEEK.
HOWEVER THE MODELS DISAGREE ON LONG THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST...AS
ONLY ABOUT HALF THE MODEL MEMBERS SHOW THE SYSTEM BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SO CONCUR WITH HPC THINKING
ON PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BEING IN THE CHANCE RANGE THIS
PERIOD.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DUE TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION OF
JETSTREAM LIKEWISE CONCUR WITH HPC GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT GFS MOS
VALUES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL. SO THE PREVALENT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUDGING FROM RECENT SREF MODEL RUNS AND NAM PROFILES EXPECT ISOLATED
FOG PATCHES WITH MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING THEN VFR INTO AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...THERE CAN BE
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF
SHOWERS YIELDING MVFR VISIBILITIES.
ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY WILL TAP GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
DUE TO UPSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS.
BY MONDAY THE MVFR SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASED. HOWEVER
BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A SECOND SYSTEM MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MVFR STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 070726
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
226 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE AREA THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND OFF THE COAST TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE LEFTOVER CIRCULATION FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS KEPT VERY MOIST
AIR OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG HAS FORMED, I KEPT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN THERE IS EVIDENCE OF SOME DRYING LATE IN THE
DAY THAT SHOULD ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MAV TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY OK CONSIDERING THE HIGH OVERNIGHT LOWS, EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING
ALOFT. HOWEVER, SINCE THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS STILL QUITE
MOIST SO LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AFTER DARK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THIS FRONT SHOULD
SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SEASONABLY COOL AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AS WE DEVELOP COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS MEANS WE
WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION TYPE STRATOCU DEVELOP. HOWEVER, NO PCPN IS
FCST WITH THIS FLOW AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAV TEMPS WERE GENERALLY OK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS
SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH
WEDNESAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING THE REGION THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN. THE GFS H8 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES INDICATE ANY PCPN SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS, ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE, PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE HELD STRONG IN MOST PLACES,
REMAINING ABOVE 6 SM AT A MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. SOME SITES COULD
SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING, BUT ALL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
VSBYS BY MID-DAY. BEING THAT IT IS MID-NOVEMBER, IT WILL BE HARD TO
GET RID OF THE CLOUDS HOWEVER SINCE THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOWER
EVERY DAY. FOR THIS REASON, WE MAINTAIN LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY, WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO LIFT THE CIGS UP FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD
NOT LAST TOO LONG AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ONCE AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET AND ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE FAIR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
OUT TO SEA TODAY. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY, BUT
WE WILL SEE SOME ELEVATED SEAS AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT, SO WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WINDS COULD INCREASE, AS WELL
AS SEAS, BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN
CASE THINGS CHANGE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FAIR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE AND OFFSHORE SEAS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO 9 FT AT
44009 BY 2 AM. ALSO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED AS
WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND THE GAGES IN THE BACK BAYS INDICATE THAT
THE HIGH WATERS FROM THE PREVIOUS TIDES HAVE COME DOWN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WIND DIRECTION ON BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN OUT SINCE AUGUST 9TH AND
TODAY THE WIND SPEED FAILED AT 1 AM TODAY AS THE WINDS WERE INCHING
UP TOWARD 40 KNOT GUSTS. YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY
CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO
PORTS DATA. ALSO WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...ROBERTSON
MARINE...ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAUBER
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070255
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
955 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY ACCELERATING
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LO PRES OFFSHR WL BEGIN TO MV E OVRNGT. LLVL CLDS RMNG WDSPRD AS
FAR W AS I95...EVEN LGT RA/DZ CONTG ON PORTIONS OF ERN SHR...ESP
LWR SE MD. KPG POPS 40-60% INVOF LWR MD ERN SHR...EVEN 20-30% FOR
MOST XTRM E LCTNS IN FA INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. OTRW...CLDNS WL RMN
SLO TO BRK/SHIFT E. ADDTNLLY...SFC DWPTS WL RMN SLO TO LWR THROUGH
THE OVRNGT HRS...AS WNDSPDS GRDLY LWR...ESP INLAND...PTCHY FG PSBL.
NUDGED LO TEMPS UP A CPL DEGS F BASED ON TRENDS (BOTH T/TD).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRI: FRI LOOKS RTHR WRM AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN AHEAD OF APPRCHG
TROF. WL LKLY HV TO DEAL WITH SOME LEFTOVER CLDS OVER THE
EAST...BUT SHUD HV MSNY CONDITIONS ALL ZNS BY ERY TO MID AFTN.
THKNS SCHEMES POINTING TWDS M-UPR 70S OVER INLAND SXNS. TEMPS MORE
CHALLENGING EAST...AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON HOW QUICKLY CLDS MIX
OUT. ACCEPTED BLENDED MOS NUMBERS OVER THIS AREA FOR NOW...WHICH
YIELDS M/U 60S OVER THE NE.
FRI NITE/SAT: UPR RIDGE DEPARTS OFFSHORE FRI NITE AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE UPR GRT LAKES. THIS FEATURE PUSHES A
CDFRT THRU THE RGN SAT AFTRN AS THE UPR LOW RIDES NORTHWARD ACROSS
SERN CANADA. CLIMO WOULD DICTATE THAT UPR LOWS TRACKING THIS FAR
NORTH OF CWA FREQUENTLY LEAVE LTL/NO PCPN IN ITS WAKE ACROSS OUR
CWA...AND 12Z 6NOV MODELS SEEM TO BE CORROBORATING THIS.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED TO BE A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR NOW. WENT
WITH LOW CHC POPS NORTH...SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE S/SE. ALSO
CONTINUED TO TREND FRONTAL PASSAGE BACKWARDS IN TIME A BIT...WITH
NO POPS BEFORE ERY SAT MORNING OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND AFTER
SUNRISE SAT INTO THE REST OF THE AREA. TMPS REMAIN RTHR MILD
DESPITE CLDS AND CHC FOR PCPN. HIGHS M60S N TO L70S S.
SUNDAY: SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY POST FROPA. FLOW
BECOMES GRADUALLY ZONAL SUNDAY INTO ERY NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW
DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST NEAR 37.3N 73.5W (AS OF 00Z) IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER ERN VA AND SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST. MVFR WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT SBY AND ORF WITH MAINLY
MVFR AT PHF AND ECG. RIC IS CURRENTLY VFR WITH A 5K FOOT CEILING.
THE DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACCORDING TO BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES FRI
MORNING. AT THIS TIME..IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR FOR A TIME...MOST LIKELY AT
RIC...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE. ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MORNING BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY EARLY FRI AFTN EXCEPT SBY.
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE LOW SLOWLY
RISES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRI UNDER A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REGION SAT WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
AND SCT PCPN POSSIBLE. VFR CONDS RETURN FOR SUN AND MON...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED 75 NM OFF PARRAMORE ISLAND (VA EASTERN SHORE)
PERSISTING FOR THE TIME BEING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH A LITTLE WEAKENING WHICH HAS BEEN
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM
TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND CHES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR CSTL WTRS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES. REPLACED WITH SCA FLAGS (STILL EXPECT 30 KT
GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING) UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SEAS. SCA
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SEAS. SYSTEM FINALLY LOSES ITS INFLUENCE ON
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER DRIFTING. SCA FLAGS FOR
CURRITUCK SOUND STILL UNTIL 7PM (NEXT SHIFT WILL MONITOR/POSSIBLY
EXTEND THESE)...CHES BAY UNTIL 1 AM.
HI PRES SLIDES ACRS THE WATERS FRI AFTN/EVNG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LOW
WINDS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRNT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THRU SAT EVNG/NGHT. HI PRES WILL RETURN FOR SUN
THRU TUE. HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT TO OUR NORTH ON TUE...BRINGING
ONSHORE FLOW TUE NGHT THRU WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BAJ
|
