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000
FXUS66 KSEW 082342
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
345 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA
WHEN IT ARRIVES ON MONDAY. A STRONG WESTERLY JETSTREAM FORMING OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL DRIVE A SERIES OF MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTLING IN NICELY OVER THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. ECHO TOPS HAVE
GOTTEN UP TO AROUND 17KFT WHICH IS ABOUT WHERE THE -20C ISOTHERM IS.
NO LIGHTNING SHOWING UP YET SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
THE S PART FROM THE EVENING FORECAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF COLDER TOPPED CLOUDS OVER
THE WA OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE SHOWER AREA THAT THE
MODELS MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE HIGHER LIKELY RANGE POPS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND. SHOULD SEE
A DECREASING SHOWER TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS/NAM STILL BRING A WEAK SYSTEM TO THE COAST ON
MONDAY...ORIGINATING FROM THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE ALONG
150W. LATEST 18Z RUNS HOLD ONTO MORE OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT
THAN EARLIER RUNS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LIFT IS
SUPPLIED BY THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CATCHES
UP TO THE FRONT. NAM IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT BUT WILL JUST HANG ONTO THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWER FOR ALL
DAY. MAY NEED TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT IN THE NEXT FORECAST IF THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINS MORE STRENGTH.
GFS ALREADY HAS A 190KT 300MB JETSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC
DRIVING TUESDAYS MOIST WARM FRONT PAST THE DATELINE. GFS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY...
AND THE LATEST ECMWF AGREES. ENDED UP KEEPING 80 POPS FOR NOW BUT
100 POPS WOULD PROBABLY BE BETTER. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND
FOR SE EXPOSED AREAS. KAM
.LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF BRING THE STRONG NW PACIFIC JETSTREAM ACROSS
TO THE NE PACIFIC BY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THE MOIST PLUME UNDER THE
JET AIMED AT THE PACIFIC NW. MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT
WITH THE DETAILS OF THE SUBSEQUENT WAVES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SO THE BEST BET FOR NOW IS TO JUST EXPECT WET. THE MAIN
PROBLEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN RAIN
AND RIVER FLOODING. ANOTHER WRINKLE MAY BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK OVER THE S CHINA SEA HAS PUMPED SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH...IF ANY...OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH W WA NEXT WEEK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE. WILL GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER COUPLE RUNS TO SEE IF THEY PICK
UP ON THE TS MAYSAK CONNECTION...THEN POSSIBLY PUT OUT A FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR MID NEXT WEEK. KAM
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W WA UNDER
SOUTHERLY/DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND UNSTABLE
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DUSK...MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE
ITS NORTHWARD TRACK INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS EVENING WHILE
DRAGGING A TROUGH THE THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED COOL CLOUD TOPS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MOVING DUE EAST. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 33
KSEA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PUGET SOUND
AREA THIS EVENING....PRODUCING BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
STORM MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE NE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE MOVES INLAND
AND THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. 33
&&
.MARINE...A 999 MB SFC LOW OFFSHORE NEAR 47N/128W WILL CONTINUE TO
HEAD NE THIS EVENING TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS W WA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AROUND 06Z THEN MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD ALONG THE COAST ON SUN...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP EARLY MON AHEAD ON THE NEXT INCOMING FRONT. ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXPECT PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.
$$
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000
FXUS66 KOTX 082325 AAA
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
320 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON PCPN AREAL COVERAGE AND FOG.
FILLING/WEAKENING UPPER TROF ALONG THE PAC NW COAST THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A STEADY TRANSFORMATION INTO AN
INCREASINGLY SPLIT/SHEARED FEATURE...DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE DIGGING
SPEED MAX THAT WILL MOVE SE INTO NORCAL OVERNIGHT. THE
ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX SHOULD TRACK SE INTO SRN OREGON AND NRN CALIF
TOO...KEEPING THE BEST LG-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE S OF
ERN WA. HOWEVER...WHAT`S LEFT OF THE FAR WEAKER NRN STREAM TROF
AND MID-LEVEL FRONT (AT LEAST PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
ROUND OF SHOWERS) WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS IN
THE FCST FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF N ID. SOME SUN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF OREGON THIS AFTERNOON HELPED TO GENERATE SOME
SFC-BASED CONVECTION (AND ISOLD TSRA) OVER ERN OREGON. THE NRN
EDGE OF THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD TRACK NE ACROSS THE PALOUSE AND
LEWISTON REGION THE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC-BASED INVERSIONS REMAINED
STRONG AND KEPT FOG AND STRATUS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE BASIN ZONES TODAY. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON FCST SOUNDING INVERSION STRENGTH AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
MIXING POTENTIAL. BZ
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST MOVES INLAND...STRETCHING AND SPLITTING AS IT DOES SO. A
LARGER CHUNK HEADS INTO THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND A
COUPLE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVES PASS OVER THE
INLAND NW. BETWEEN. THE FIRST PASSES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
DEFORMATION ZONE/TROWAL FEATURE IS NOTED...LIFTING ACROSS
SE TO ERN CWA. THIS PROVIDES A CHANNEL AND FOCUS FOR MOISTURE OVER
THE ERN THIRD OF WA AND NRN ID. THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS
TO BE SITUATED FROM THE BLUES AND PALOUSE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. HERE IS WHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE LIKELY
RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS NORTH OF
HERE...FROM THE SPOKANE/C`DA AREA NORTHWARD. THE NAM ONLY SHOWS A
FEW TRACE AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE...WITH SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS.
LOWER CHANCES WILL BE FOUND IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES...BUT
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN GOING UP TOWARD THE CASCADES CREST.
REGARDLESS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN
THE MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE COMES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY THE LEADING
EDGES OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND ACROSS THE ID PANHANDLE
AND THE SMALLEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND
LOWER BASIN. LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE STARTS
TO PASS EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOME BREAK UP IN THE CLOUDS IS
INDICATED IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. SOME OF THIS IS BREAK-UP IN
CLOUDS IS SUGGESTED TOWARD THE EASTERN BASIN LATE. OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LEADING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE CASCADES. YET MODELS KEEP THE BETTER
PRECIP RISK FROM THAT AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. /JCOTE
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME OF
INTEREST TO INFLUENCE PRIMARILY THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME
INTERVAL OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE SOME TROPICAL INFLUENCE
LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL IR AND AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS
MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM 24W...NAMED MAYSAK...BECOMING
ENTRAINED INTO THE BASE OF THE PLUME AT 19 DEGREES NORTH AND 116
DEGREES EAST BETWEEN CHINA AND THE NORTH PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS PLUME IS YET AGAIN A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS WHICH
WOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS QUITE HIGH...ALLOWING RAIN TO BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH PERHAPS JUST AS MUCH EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND OVER THE NORTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE IN THE UPCOMING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD AS THAT WHICH
HAS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND TODAY DUE TO THE CURRENT PINEAPPLE
EXPRESS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AS FAR AS
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST INTERVAL TUESDAYS POPS AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LOWER IN COMPARISON AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BEST POSITION TO AID IN
EXTREME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCTION WHEN THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE PASSES BUT WITH THAT SAID TUESDAY STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO
BE WET. HESITATING TO CALL IT A FRONTAL FEATURE BUT MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY...BUT THEN THIS SAME AREA MOVES BACK
NORTHWARD AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ALLOWING FOR
HIGH CHANCE TO POSSIBLY LOW LIKELY POPS TO REMAIN INTO FRIDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT SHOWN FOR SATURDAY AS THE FEATURE EXITS AND LONGWAVE
RIDGING BECOMES AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THE APPROACH OF SURFACE LOWS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGES THAT SPAWN ON THE
MOISTURE PLUME/BAROCLINIC BAND DISCUSSED ABOVE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTH AND WEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT BECOME
SOUTHERLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS HIGHER THAN MID LEVEL CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SOME OF THE LOWLAND
LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE
SUCH AS WENATCHEE WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
CASCADES WILL WORK AGAINST THE POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN THOSE AREA. /PELATTI
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUES WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AS THE WET
WEATHER THAT HAS LINGERED FOR WELL OVER 24 HOURS OVER THE AREA
LEAVES ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR STRATUS/FOG FORMATION THAT MAY
BRING PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO 00Z MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...AIRMASS HAS TRANSITIONED TO ONE THAT IS SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE IN NATURE ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AT TIMES INTO 00Z
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 39 47 38 45 33 45 / 50 50 20 30 20 40
COEUR D`ALENE 38 47 39 47 32 46 / 50 50 40 40 30 40
PULLMAN 41 49 36 48 34 47 / 60 60 20 30 20 40
LEWISTON 43 55 39 55 38 51 / 60 50 20 20 20 30
COLVILLE 37 47 40 48 32 46 / 40 40 30 40 40 50
SANDPOINT 37 45 39 45 33 45 / 50 50 40 50 40 40
KELLOGG 39 46 37 45 33 45 / 70 80 50 50 50 40
MOSES LAKE 39 52 35 53 32 49 / 50 20 20 20 20 40
WENATCHEE 40 52 37 50 35 47 / 60 20 20 20 20 30
OMAK 38 51 35 50 33 46 / 40 20 20 20 20 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KOTX 082247
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
247 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON PCPN AREAL COVERAGE AND FOG.
FILLING/WEAKENING UPPER TROF ALONG THE PAC NW COAST THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A STEADY TRANSFORMATION INTO AN
INCREASINGLY SPLIT/SHEARED FEATURE...DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE DIGGING
SPEED MAX THAT WILL MOVE SE INTO NORCAL OVERNIGHT. THE
ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX SHOULD TRACK SE INTO SRN OREGON AND NRN CALIF
TOO...KEEPING THE BEST LG-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE S OF
ERN WA. HOWEVER...WHAT`S LEFT OF THE FAR WEAKER NRN STREAM TROF
AND MID-LEVEL FRONT (AT LEAST PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
ROUND OF SHOWERS) WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS IN
THE FCST FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF N ID. SOME SUN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF OREGON THIS AFTERNOON HELPED TO GENERATE SOME
SFC-BASED CONVECTION (AND ISOLD TSRA) OVER ERN OREGON. THE NRN
EDGE OF THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD TRACK NE ACROSS THE PALOUSE AND
LEWISTON REGION THE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC-BASED INVERSIONS REMAINED
STRONG AND KEPT FOG AND STRATUS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE BASIN ZONES TODAY. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON FCST SOUNDING INVERSION STRENGTH AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
MIXING POTENTIAL. BZ
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST MOVES INLAND...STRETCHING AND SPLITTING AS IT DOES SO. A
LARGER CHUNK HEADS INTO THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND A
COUPLE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVES PASS OVER THE
INLAND NW. BETWEEN. THE FIRST PASSES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
DEFORMATION ZONE/TROWAL FEATURE IS NOTED...LIFTING ACROSS
SE TO ERN CWA. THIS PROVIDES A CHANNEL AND FOCUS FOR MOISTURE OVER
THE ERN THIRD OF WA AND NRN ID. THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS
TO BE SITUATED FROM THE BLUES AND PALOUSE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. HERE IS WHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE LIKELY
RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS NORTH OF
HERE...FROM THE SPOKANE/C`DA AREA NORTHWARD. THE NAM ONLY SHOWS A
FEW TRACE AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE...WITH SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS.
LOWER CHANCES WILL BE FOUND IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES...BUT
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN GOING UP TOWARD THE CASCADES CREST.
REGARDLESS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN
THE MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE COMES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY THE LEADING
EDGES OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND ACROSS THE ID PANHANDLE
AND THE SMALLEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND
LOWER BASIN. LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE STARTS
TO PASS EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOME BREAK UP IN THE CLOUDS IS
INDICATED IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. SOME OF THIS IS BREAK-UP IN
CLOUDS IS SUGGESTED TOWARD THE EASTERN BASIN LATE. OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LEADING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE CASCADES. YET MODELS KEEP THE BETTER
PRECIP RISK FROM THAT AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. /JCOTE
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME OF
INTEREST TO INFLUENCE PRIMARILY THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME
INTERVAL OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE SOME TROPICAL INFLUENCE
LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL IR AND AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS
MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM 24W...NAMED MAYSAK...BECOMING
ENTRAINED INTO THE BASE OF THE PLUME AT 19 DEGREES NORTH AND 116
DEGREES EAST BETWEEN CHINA AND THE NORTH PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS PLUME IS YET AGAIN A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS WHICH
WOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS QUITE HIGH...ALLOWING RAIN TO BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH PERHAPS JUST AS MUCH EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND OVER THE NORTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE IN THE UPCOMING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD AS THAT WHICH
HAS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND TODAY DUE TO THE CURRENT PINEAPPLE
EXPRESS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AS FAR AS
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST INTERVAL TUESDAYS POPS AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LOWER IN COMPARISON AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BEST POSITION TO AID IN
EXTREME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCTION WHEN THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE PASSES BUT WITH THAT SAID TUESDAY STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO
BE WET. HESITATING TO CALL IT A FRONTAL FEATURE BUT MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY...BUT THEN THIS SAME AREA MOVES BACK
NORTHWARD AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ALLOWING FOR
HIGH CHANCE TO POSSIBLY LOW LIKELY POPS TO REMAIN INTO FRIDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT SHOWN FOR SATURDAY AS THE FEATURE EXITS AND LONGWAVE
RIDGING BECOMES AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THE APPROACH OF SURFACE LOWS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGES THAT SPAWN ON THE
MOISTURE PLUME/BAROCLINIC BAND DISCUSSED ABOVE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTH AND WEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT BECOME
SOUTHERLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS HIGHER THAN MID LEVEL CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SOME OF THE LOWLAND
LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE
SUCH AS WENATCHEE WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
CASCADES WILL WORK AGAINST THE POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN THOSE AREA. /PELATTI
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL BE 1000 FEET OR LESS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN IDAHO THROUGH ABOUT 23Z. KGEG WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
THE LOWEST CIGS AND POOREST VISIBILITY SINCE THE ELEVATION OF THE
AIRPORT IS ABOVE IS ABOVE 2300 FEET WHICH PUTS THE RUNWAY IN THE
STRATUS. EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP KPUW AND
KLWS OUT OF THE STRATUS...BUT BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRING
TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KGEG...KSFF...KCOE...KMWH...AND KEAT
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO END THE STRATUS . WE ARE LOOKING FOR IT TO
LIFT A BIT...BUT THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE IMPROVEMENT ARE
ALWAYS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTS. BZ/GK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 39 47 38 45 33 45 / 50 50 20 30 20 40
COEUR D`ALENE 38 47 39 47 32 46 / 50 50 40 40 30 40
PULLMAN 41 49 36 48 34 47 / 60 60 20 30 20 40
LEWISTON 43 55 39 55 38 51 / 60 50 20 20 20 30
COLVILLE 37 47 40 48 32 46 / 40 40 30 40 40 50
SANDPOINT 37 45 39 45 33 45 / 50 50 40 50 40 40
KELLOGG 39 46 37 45 33 45 / 70 80 50 50 50 40
MOSES LAKE 39 52 35 53 32 49 / 50 20 20 20 20 40
WENATCHEE 40 52 37 50 35 47 / 60 20 20 20 20 30
OMAK 38 51 35 50 33 46 / 40 20 20 20 20 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS66 KPQR 082227
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 PM PST SAT NOV 08 2008
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OFF
THE PACIFIC TONIGHT...AND EAST OF THE CASCADES SUN. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK SUN NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MON. A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...PRE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OVER
CASCADES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT. AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODELS NOT QUITE AS COOL
WITH POST FRONTAL AIR MASS AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW LEVELS TO PASS LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT.
TROUGH AXIS TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...COUPLED WITH
MODEST OROGPRAPHIC LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW...IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES. QPF EXPECTATIONS
ARE MARGINAL...SO FOR NOW PLAN ON KEEPING A LOW END SNOW ADVISORY
TONIGHT AND SUN FOR THE OREGON PART OF THE CASCADES.
A WEAK RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SUN NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A LULL
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE AGREEING ON
DETAILS WITH THE WEAK WAVE AND WARM FRONT APPROACHING MON. FOR NOW
WILL STICK WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...AND KEEP POPS IN THE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOWER LIKELY RANGE.
TUE SEES THE BEGINNING OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT. GOOD
MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORT KEEPING POPS LIKELY FOR
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...AS WITH EARLIER FORECASTS...PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG WESTERLY JET DEVELOPS. 500MB
MODEL HEIGHTS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...WHILE
WESTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PROVIDE LIFT TO KEEP POPS ON THE
HIGH SIDE. LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS BUILDING A
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SO WILL BACK OFF SOME ON POPS IN
THE FRI TO SAT TIME FRAME AND CONTINUE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SUN. AN AREA OF MORE INTENSE SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO
SW OREGON WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. COLDER
AIR ALOFT IS FLOODING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING CEILINGS LOWER WHILE
KEEPING SHOWERS GOING. INLAND EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH AREA MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS DUE TO SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE COAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE
TO THE HIGHER END OF IFR OR LOWER END OF MVFR OVERNIGHT...THINGS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON SUN AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...INCREASING
AREAS MVFR CIGS DUE TO SHOWERS...SOME HEAVIER AT TIMES THROUGH THE
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD SAG DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR MASS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SOME RISK IFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. SUN SHOULD SEE REBOUND TO VFR AFTER AN
MVFR MORNING...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR SUN...BUT SHOULD
BE INCREASINGLY INFREQUENT.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 4 PM SUN AFTERNOON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW N AND CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADES TONIGHT AND SUN.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 081808 AAA
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1008 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST ARE ANTICIPATED.
THE CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC-BASED INVERSIONS...BELOW
WHICH FOG AND/OR STRATUS HAVE KEPT TEMPS AND VISIBILITIES LOW AND
FAIRLY STAGNANT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING NE INTO THE ID PANHANDLE
ARE TIED TO THE COLDFNT ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL STEADILY
DECREASE BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE FCST FOR MOST ZONES SIMPLY
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AS A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
VORT MAXES CLOSE TO THE UPPER TROF AXIS REMAIN OVER THE PAC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS HINT THAT THE LOW CEILINGS
OVER THE BASIN ZONES WON`T COMPLETELY DISSIPATE...BUT SOME HEATING
AND WINDS JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION 20-25 KTS AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BZ
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL BE 1000 FEET OR LESS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN IDAHO THROUGH ABOUT 23Z. KGEG WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
THE LOWEST CIGS AND POOREST VISIBILITY SINCE THE ELEVATION OF THE
AIRPORT IS ABOVE IS ABOVE 2300 FEET WHICH PUTS THE RUNWAY IN THE
STRATUS. EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP KPUW AND
KLWS OUT OF THE STRATUS...BUT BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRING
TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KGEG...KSFF...KCOE...KMWH...AND KEAT
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO END THE STRATUS . WE ARE LOOKING FOR IT TO
LIFT A BIT...BUT THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE IMPROVEMENT ARE
ALWAYS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTS. BZ/GK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 48 39 45 38 43 33 / 80 50 50 20 30 30
COEUR D`ALENE 48 38 46 39 46 32 / 90 40 50 30 40 40
PULLMAN 53 41 47 36 48 34 / 80 40 60 20 30 30
LEWISTON 57 43 54 39 56 38 / 60 30 50 20 20 20
COLVILLE 45 37 45 40 47 32 / 70 50 40 30 40 40
SANDPOINT 43 37 42 39 45 33 / 100 50 50 50 50 50
KELLOGG 49 39 44 37 46 33 / 100 50 70 50 50 50
MOSES LAKE 51 39 50 35 49 32 / 40 50 20 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 50 40 51 37 47 35 / 40 50 20 20 20 20
OMAK 46 38 49 35 46 33 / 60 50 20 20 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 081725
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA
WHEN IT ARRIVES ON MONDAY. A STRONG WESTERLY JETSTREAM FORMING OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL DRIVE A PAIR OF MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS VERIFY THE BACK-BENT
OCCLUSION MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST THIS MORNING. DESTRUCTION
ISLAND JUMPED UP TO 43G55KT A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. A WELL DEVELOPED
RAIN BAND FORMED BY THE OCCLUSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE W
WA INTERIOR. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ONCE THE RAIN BAND MOVES THROUGH. IT SHOULD
STILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON...SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER W WA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
VORTICITY AXIS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 50N/136W TO 60N/138W. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD
FOR SUNDAY FOR THIS WEAKER FEATURE.
A BIG STRONG LOOKING FRONTAL BAND IS SHOWING UP ON IR IMAGERY ALONG
155W THIS MORNING. MODELS WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME
IT ARRIVES ON MONDAY. THE MAIN LIFT FOR THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO COME
FROM A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOMEWHERE NEAR 45N/170W WHICH
EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP WITH THE DOWNSTREAM WAVE. GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS
WERE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT YESTERDAY...BUT THE LATEST 12Z RUNS
ONLY DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING. WILL FOLLOW THE FASTER GFS MODEL FOR
NOW WHICH EXPOSES W WA TO SHOWERS FOR MOST OF MONDAY. HIGH CHANCE
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. KAM
.LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN IDEA NEXT
WEEK...DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG WESTERLY JETSTREAM ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC...WHICH DRIVES A COUPLE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION SYSTEMS
ACROSS W WA. LATEST 12Z GFS ACTUALLY HAS THE 300 MB JET GETTING UP
TO 190KT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WRINKLE TO NEXT WEEK IS THAT
GLOBAL COMPOSITE IR IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK OVER THE S
CHINA SEA STARTING TO EJECT MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. HARD TO
SAY HOW MUCH...IF ANY...OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH W WA NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. FOR NOW...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
A PRELIMINARY WARM FRONT ARRIVING EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAIN MESSAGE? IT`S STARTING TO LOOK LIKE
ANOTHER FLOOD EVENT IS SHAPING UP. KAM
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH W WA THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
SPREADING EAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. RAIN WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHERLY/DIFFLUENT. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY AFFECT THE
SOUTH PART WHERE A LOWER LIFTED INDEX WILL BE PRESENT. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT AND
FOCUS FOR MORE RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
KSEA...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PUGET SOUND AREA THIS MORNING
WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
EAST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
TROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY. 33
&&
.MARINE...A 997MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 47N/129W WITH MOVE NE TOWARD
VANCOUVER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN TIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH GALES PERSISTING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND EAST ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT UNTIL NOON TODAY. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN BC THIS EVENING...WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH PASSES EAST THROUGH W WA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG
THE COAST ON SUN WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. SOUTHEASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRES
CENTER FORMS OFF THE COAST. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THE COAST AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL
STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE ENHANCED AFD PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML (ALL LOWERCASE)
000
FXUS66 KPQR 081706
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
904 AM PST SAT NOV 08 2008
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THAT WILL BRING A MIX OF WEATHER WITH IT INCLUDING
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING DOWN TO THE HIGHER PASSES. RATHER WET
AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE LIKELY NEAR THEIR PEAK THIS
MORNING AS POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHES COAST. MODELS
INDICATE THE PARENT SURFACE LOW FILLING THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE S BC COAST. WILL ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE S
WA AND N OR COAST TO RUN ITS COURSE.
SATELLITE SHOWS BAND OF BEST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION PUSHING INLAND
OVER ACROSS THE COAST RANGE THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO BE WELL
DEPICTED BY GFS. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATER TODAY AS COOLER
AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN IN THE
EVENING.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COMES INLAND THIS EVENING AND IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING DOWN TO THE HIGHER PASSES. LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES
AND THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE UP NEAR THE SKI RESORTS.
WILLSON
&&
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NOT
MUCH CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST
REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURN SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND RISK OF
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE WX AND EVEN TSTMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. AT THE COAST EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RISK OF IFR
CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...AS FLOW TURNS W TO NW LATER THIS EVENING
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP IN COLDER AIR MASS. INLAND EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...CIGS WILL SETTLE TO GENERALLY MVFR AFTER NIGHTFALL
AS AIR MASS COOLS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTY SE WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BAND CROSSES THE AREA.
SOME RISK MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TSTM NOW THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. CIGS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE LOWER END OF MVFR DURING THE
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR GALES TO SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
SPEEDS AROUND MIDDAY LOOKS ON TRACK. PRES GRADIENTS NEAR THEIR PEAK
NOW WILL SLACKEN AS SURFACE LOW JUST W OF WA COASTAL WATERS MOVES
NNE AND WEAKENS. HOWEVER...UNSTABLE AIR MASS COULD CONTINUE TO HELP
SURFACE THE STRONGER GUSTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
A LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...FLOW WILL TURN MORE NWLY AND
CONTINUE THE SCA TYPE WINDS THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE HAZARD THRESHOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A BRIEF
DECREASING TREND BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING MON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TUE WITH SOUTHERLY GALES POSSIBLE. ACTIVE FALL
PATTERN OF SYSTEM AFTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS LIVELY FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. DK2
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE UNTIL MIDDAY
TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM FOR THE N OREGON AND S WA
COAST.
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND THE LANE
904 AM PST SAT NOV 08 2008
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 081208
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
408 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 242 AM
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 10Z SHOWS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST OF WASHINGTON. WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH...WE WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.
THE FIRST IS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CLEARLY EVIDENT NEAR 45N AND
130W. THE SECOND WAVE IS IN THE FORM OF A JET STREAK ABOUT 600-700
MILES FURTHER WEST. THIS WESTERN-MOST JET STREAK WILL HELP TO
CARVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SINCE THE 250MB JET WILL DIVE WELL SOUTH OF THE SPOKANE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BASIN
BETWEEN 12-18Z...THEN TRANSITION INTO NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO BETWEEN 18-00Z. SINCE THIS LEAD WAVE WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...WE EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO REMAIN PROLIFIC
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME PEAKS OF SUN AROUND POMEROY...LEWISTON AND
PULLMAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES DOWNSLOPE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO. BUT SINCE
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850MB WILL BE QUITE WEAK...IT IS
NOT LIKELY THAT SPOKANE...GRAND COULEE...OMAK OR WENATCHEE WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE STRATUS TODAY. THE THICKEST FOG THIS MORNING WILL
BE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET...MAINLY OVER THE WEST
PLAINS...THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND OVER PERHAPS OVER THE
WATERVILLE PLATEAU. /GKOCH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A PAIR OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN WA/N IDAHO ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NEITHER SYSTEM IS ALL THAT STRONG BUT A
COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND WEAK DYNAMICS
FROM PASSING SHORT WAVES WILL LEAD TO CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS
OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR 20 POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. GIVEN
NO STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS THE INVERSION
PRESENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL ONLY WEAKEN AND NOT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FROM TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PAIR OF WARM FRONTS TO TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA...ONE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A GOOD MOISTURE TAP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
2-3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND
1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE. SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 4-5K FOOT RANGE BEFORE RISING TO EVENTUALLY 6-8 FEET
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE CASCADES
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS. THUS DESPITE THE GOOD MOISTURE TAP
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER PLATEAUS. WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED WED
NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTH INTO OREGON AND THEN STALLING. THIS MAY DRY OUT
EASTERN WA/N IDAHO BUT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT POPS WERE
KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL BE 1000 FEET OR LESS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN IDAHO THROUGH 18-20Z. KGEG WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE
LOWEST CIGS AND POOREST VISIBILITY SINCE THE ELEVATION OF THE
AIRPORT IS ABOVE IS ABOVE 2300 FEET WHICH PUTS THE RUNWAY IN THE
STRATUS. EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP KPUW AND
KLWS OUT OF THE STRATUS...BUT BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRING
TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED AT KGEG...KSFF...KCOE...KMWH...AND KEAT THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK UP THE STRATUS. WE ARE LOOKING FOR IT TO LIFT A BIT...BUT
THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE IMPROVEMENT ARE ALWAYS LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECASTS. /GKOCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 48 39 45 38 43 33 / 100 60 50 20 30 30
COEUR D`ALENE 48 38 46 39 46 32 / 100 40 50 30 40 40
PULLMAN 53 41 47 36 48 34 / 80 40 60 20 30 30
LEWISTON 57 43 54 39 56 38 / 60 30 50 20 20 20
COLVILLE 46 37 45 40 47 32 / 100 70 40 30 40 40
SANDPOINT 44 37 42 39 45 33 / 100 50 50 50 50 50
KELLOGG 49 39 44 37 46 33 / 100 50 70 50 50 50
MOSES LAKE 53 39 50 35 49 32 / 90 50 20 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 50 40 51 37 47 35 / 60 50 20 20 20 20
OMAK 47 38 49 35 46 33 / 100 50 20 20 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 081054
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
255 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COPIOUS RAIN TO THE
REGION WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE
BAROCLINIC BAND IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL SWING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS RIGHT
AROUND 130W THIS HOUR AND WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT. A DRY
SLOT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THAT FAR OFFSHORE AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER THIS MORNING. SO BASICALLY THE
BATCH OF RAIN OVER THE AREA NOW WILL END BY DAWN...THEN OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUN BREAKS HERE
AND THERE LATE IN THE DAY. THE STEADY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AND WE WILL BASICALLY BE
DEALING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH WILL HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON THE
AREA RIVERS.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OREGON. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA IT COULD GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO KICK OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR THREE. DYNAMICS
ARE THERE AND IF THE "INTENSE" NOVEMBER SUNSHINE DOES BRIEFLY BREAK
THROUGH THAT WOULD HELP. I INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES AT
THIS TIME.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS AM EXPECTING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WENT WITH LIKELY WORDING ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTERIOR LOWLAND AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
REDUCE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY A FEW OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE A THREAT OF LINGERING EVENING
SHOWERS AND A THREAT OF A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN LATE DUE TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA...SO LEFT A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ROLL ONSHORE MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH...WITH
ONLY A LITTLE RAINFALL. NOTHING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT...BUT NOT A
PRETTY DAY EXPECTED EITHER. JUST TYPICAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST NOVEMBER
WEATHER. CERNIGLIA
.LONG TERM...FOR THE LONGER RANGE...THINK GENERALLY WET...BUT THEN
WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC OVERALL IDEA WITH ABOUT A 6-12
HOUR DIFFERENCE IN TIMING. BASIC IDEA IS A SIGNIFICANT WARM FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO MAINLY THE COAST AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA.
THEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ENDING UP OVER
OREGON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS BAND IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT...GIVE OR TAKE 12 HOURS OR SO. WHEN THE CORE OF THIS
BAROCLINIC BAND IS OVERHEAD...WOULD EXPECT DECENT RAINS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH THE FOCUS AT THIS TIME BEING WED NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. IF THE BAND STALLS OVER US RATHER THAN OREGON WE WILL END
UP WITH MORE RAIN...WHILE IF IT PLOWS ON THROUGH FASTER...LESS. THIS
IS TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO PIN DOWN DETAILS AND IT IS DEFINITELY
NOT SET IN STONE BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE LOOK AHEAD.
ALSO WILL HAVE WILDLY VARYING SNOW LEVELS FROM 3500 TO 7000 FT AS
THESE FRONTS MOVE ON THROUGH. CERNIGLIA
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST...DRYING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS HAVE REMAINS STUBBORNLY
HIGH FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT I STILL BELIEVE THEY WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER VFR AND MVFR RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. OCCASIONALLY
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MINOR IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON BUT A SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. IN ADDITION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
KSEA...SOUTH WIND 6-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS -- IF THEY
DO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING -- WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KSEA. MCDONNAL
&&
.MARINE...I WILL STICK WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH NOON TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES
INLAND. GALES ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA LATE FRIDAY EVENING...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL HEAD EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
MAINTAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE MARINE
FORECAST AREAS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
CENTRAL STRAIT AND EAST ENTRANCE. THEN A SUCCESSION OF FRONTS --
ROUGHLY ONE EACH DAY -- WILL AFFECT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PERHAPS THE ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...
AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WITH THE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MCDONNAL
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THE COAST AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL
STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR.
$$
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000
FXUS66 KOTX 081042
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
242 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 10Z SHOWS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST OF WASHINGTON. WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH...WE WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.
THE FIRST IS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CLEARLY EVIDENT NEAR 45N AND
130W. THE SECOND WAVE IS IN THE FORM OF A JET STREAK ABOUT 600-700
MILES FURTHER WEST. THIS WESTERN-MOST JET STREAK WILL HELP TO
CARVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SINCE THE 250MB JET WILL DIVE WELL SOUTH OF THE SPOKANE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BASIN
BETWEEN 12-18Z...THEN TRANSITION INTO NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO BETWEEN 18-00Z. SINCE THIS LEAD WAVE WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...WE EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO REMAIN PROLIFIC
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME PEAKS OF SUN AROUND POMEROY...LEWISTON AND
PULLMAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES DOWNSLOPE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO. BUT SINCE
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850MB WILL BE QUITE WEAK...IT IS
NOT LIKELY THAT SPOKANE...GRAND COULEE...OMAK OR WENATCHEE WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE STRATUS TODAY. THE THICKEST FOG THIS MORNING WILL
BE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET...MAINLY OVER THE WEST
PLAINS...THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND OVER PERHAPS OVER THE
WATERVILLE PLATEAU. /GKOCH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A PAIR OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN WA/N IDAHO ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NEITHER SYSTEM IS ALL THAT STRONG BUT A
COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND WEAK DYNAMICS
FROM PASSING SHORT WAVES WILL LEAD TO CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS
OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR 20 POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. GIVEN
NO STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS THE INVERSION
PRESENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL ONLY WEAKEN AND NOT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FROM TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PAIR OF WARM FRONTS TO TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA...ONE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A GOOD MOISTURE TAP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
2-3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND
1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE. SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 4-5K FOOT RANGE BEFORE RISING TO EVENTUALLY 6-8 FEET
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE CASCADES
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS. THUS DESPITE THE GOOD MOISTURE TAP
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER PLATEAUS. WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED WED
NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTH INTO OREGON AND THEN STALLING. THIS MAY DRY OUT
EASTERN WA/N IDAHO BUT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT POPS WERE
KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPUW WHERE
SE FLOW IS ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE TO OVERCOME SOME OF THE LOW STRATUS.
WEAK GRADIENTS WILL YIELD LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL A SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT SPREADING -RA BACK OVER MOST TAF SITES. AS THE SYSTEM
COMES IN AND -RA SPREADS TOWARD KGEG...VIS MAY IMPROVE A BIT
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASED SE GRADIENT FLOW. /FRIES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 48 39 45 38 43 33 / 100 60 50 20 30 30
COEUR D`ALENE 48 38 46 39 46 32 / 100 40 50 30 40 40
PULLMAN 53 41 47 36 48 34 / 80 40 60 20 30 30
LEWISTON 57 43 54 39 56 38 / 60 30 50 20 20 20
COLVILLE 46 37 45 40 47 32 / 100 70 40 30 40 40
SANDPOINT 44 37 42 39 45 33 / 100 50 50 50 50 50
KELLOGG 49 39 44 37 46 33 / 100 50 70 50 50 50
MOSES LAKE 53 39 50 35 49 32 / 90 50 20 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 50 40 51 37 47 35 / 60 50 20 20 20 20
OMAK 47 38 49 35 46 33 / 100 50 20 20 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KPQR 081033
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THAT WILL BRING A MIX OF WEATHER WITH IT INCLUDING
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING DOWN TO THE HIGHER PASSES. RATHER WET
AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ONE COLD FRONT IS INLAND AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT OFF
THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WITH COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT TODAY.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAN NOT ELIMINATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
MOVING INLAND TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES INLAND THIS EVENING AND IN UPSLOPE
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING DOWN TO THE HIGHER
PASSES. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE
NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A LOW END
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE UP
NEAR THE SKI RESORTS. WILLSON
&&
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NOT
MUCH CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST
REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...FRONT MOVING ONSHORE IS BRINGING S WINDS GUSTING TO
35 KTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY S WINDS SHOULD
SPREAD INLAND WITH THE FRONT AS THE MORNING GOES ON. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOME HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE FRONT
MAY BRIEFLY PUSH CIGS/VSBYS INTO MVFR/LOCAL IFR CATEGORY. AREAS MVFR
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST AS SECOND FRONTAL ZONE MOVES
ONSHORE 13Z-15Z...THEN LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER
INLAND...MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR WITH EAST WINDS EARLY...SHIFTING TO
SOUTH AND BECOMING GUSTY BY 15Z-16Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS STATIONS REPORTING GUSTS 35-40
KTS. THEREFORE THE GALE WARNING IS VERIFYING NICELY...AND GALES
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN
SOMEWHAT. SCA WINDS STILL LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY VEERING
TO W-NW. W SWELL BUILDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING 15-17 FT BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER GALE POSSIBLE TUE/WED...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE UNTIL MIDDAY
TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 4 PM PST
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
http://weather.gov/portland
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 080553
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
953 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE NEW 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM HAVE
ROLLED IN...AND SOME RELATIVELY MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
PRECIPITATION TIMING IN THE FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST NEAR 135W
THAT IS SLOWLY WORKING TOWARD THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAD BROUGHT THIS SYSTEM IN RELATIVELY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...HOWEVER THE NEW MODELS TONIGHT ARE QUITE A BIT SLOWER IN
DOING SO. THE LIKELY CULPRIT FOR THE SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESSION IS
A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTUALLY CLOSING OFF
ANOTHER 500 MB LOW NEAR THE COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF
THIS...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SURGES TOWARD THE AREA BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH TOMORROW WITH RELATIVELY STRONG
VERTICAL DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND A WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER WIND FIELD.
AS A RESULT...RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SPOKANE AND
SANDPOINT DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY. IN THE INTERLUDE BETWEEN
THE PRE-WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY CLEARING THE AREA TO
THE NORTHEAST ON RADAR AND THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE...A LESS RAINY REGIME WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AT LEAST UNTIL MORNING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE
MOIST AND UNDISTURBED RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. THIS FOG WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT A BIT TOMORROW MORNING
SPREADING OUTWARD FROM THE PALOUSE AS ISALLOBARIC FLOWS SUPPORT A
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE PALOUSE AND
WORKING NORTHWARD FROM THERE DURING THE MORNING.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. DUE TO THE DEEP CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...LOWS ARE UNLIKELY TO DROP MORE THAN A
DEGREE OR TWO FROM CURRENT READINGS. /FRIES
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPUW WHERE
SE FLOW IS ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE TO OVERCOME SOME OF THE LOW STRATUS.
WEAK GRADIENTS WILL YIELD LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL A SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT SPREADING -RA BACK OVER MOST TAF SITES. AS THE SYSTEM
COMES IN AND -RA SPREADS TOWARD KGEG...VIS MAY IMPROVE A BIT
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASED SE GRADIENT FLOW. /FRIES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 40 48 39 47 35 47 / 90 100 50 40 20 30
COEUR D`ALENE 38 48 39 47 35 48 / 100 100 60 50 30 30
PULLMAN 45 53 39 49 34 48 / 80 80 60 50 20 30
LEWISTON 49 57 43 52 37 53 / 70 60 70 50 20 20
COLVILLE 36 46 43 48 33 49 / 100 100 50 40 30 40
SANDPOINT 36 46 39 46 36 46 / 100 100 50 40 50 50
KELLOGG 40 49 39 47 34 46 / 100 100 60 60 50 50
MOSES LAKE 42 51 39 52 33 52 / 100 100 20 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 40 50 43 51 36 52 / 100 100 20 20 20 20
OMAK 38 46 41 49 33 50 / 100 100 30 20 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 080510
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA AND WEAKENS. STRONG WEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM....RAIN HAS TAPERED CONSIDERABLY FROM THIS MORNING
THOUGH THE MOUNTAINS ARE STILL GETTING AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN.
VARIOUS RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH A FEW STILL
RISING. NUMEROUS WATCHES WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE OUT FOR THE
RIVERS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AND WILL CHANGE
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS APPEAR TO BRING SOMETHING LIKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
50S SATURDAY IN SHOWERS BUT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
RAIN WITH IT BUT AFTERWARD THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD END. THE FREEZING
LEVEL...CURRENTLY ALMOST TEN THOUSAND FEET...WILL FALL CONSIDERABLY.
THIS ALL POINTS TO FLOODING ENDING LATER SATURDAY THOUGH SOME LONGER
RIVERS WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET COMPLETELY UNDER FLOOD STAGE.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGE COULD MAKE
SUNDAY THE ONE DRY DAY THIS WEEK. BURKE
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG WESTERLY JETSTREAM SETS
UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC NEXT WEEK AND THE GFS DRIVES THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AT THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT-COLD FRONT
PAIR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. 18Z GFS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z RUN UP THROUGH
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. ECMWF SORT OF HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. NATURALLY
WITH THIS FAST ZONAL PATTERN...TIMING REMAINS COMPLETELY UNCERTAIN.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON EACH SYSTEM FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG
WINDS. GFS INDICATED A MINOR BREAK THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...SO
HAVE SCALED BACK TO CLIMO POPS FOR THESE DAYS. MID WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT PACKS MORE WIND THAN RECENT SYSTEMS. KAM
&&
AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO WESTERN OREGON FROM ITS COASTAL WATERS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SATURDAY
MIDDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...GIVING
WAY TO SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CEILING WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 2000-6000 FT RANGE. BEST CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
WHEN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO PRODUCE MVFR AND
LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITIES.
KSEA...THE RELATIVELY HIGH 8000 FT CEILING OVER KSEA AT 04Z WILL
PROBABLY LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A ROUND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 2000-5000 FT RANGE AND OCCASIONAL
MVFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. SOUTH WIND 6-12
KT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MCDONNAL
&&
.MARINE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WINDS
IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTRANCES TO THE
STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. I WILL
STAY WITH THE IDEA OF HIGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THESE
MARINE ZONES...BUT MARGINAL GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER
SPLITS SINKS SOUTH OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND MONDAY AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THE COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
$$
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000
FXUS66 KPQR 080422
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION SATURDAY...WITH COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR REST OF THE WEEKEND. RATHER WET AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...IMPRESSIVE FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING. FRONT IS ABOUT 90 MILES OFFSHORE...AND WILL ARRIVE ON THE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...SPREADING RAIN INLAND LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE LOW THAT IS BEHIND THIS FIRST
FRONT. THAT LOW IS 400 MILES WEST OF NEWPORT...AND WILL LIFT TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FORMING TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
IT MOVES INTO WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS 1.5 INCH PLUME AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECASTS OF MODERATE RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. SYSTEM MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FEEL NO
SERIOUS THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT WITH LEAVES AND CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS...COULD SEE LOCAL PONDING OF WATER ON SATURDAY THAT MAY
AFFECT LOWLYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND PARTS OF
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY FROM PORTLAND TO KELSO.
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER NORTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS REMAIN TOO SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY. AS RESULT...FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND...BUT NORTH PART WILL
MOVE FASTER TO EAST THAN SOUTH PART. MAY NOT CLEAR THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE CASCADES TIL LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAN NOT ELIMINATE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT.
SNOW LEVELS DO COME DOWN...BUT NOT A BIG DROP. STILL...SHOULD START
SEE SNOW STICKING AT PASSES IN CASCADES LATER SATURDAY EVENING. NO
ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ONLY 2
TO 5 INCHES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL ONLY DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND ON SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH TREND OF COOL SHOWERY WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST
THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. ROCKEY.
&&
.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED TO THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK
A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES DURING THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL MOVE ASHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF CASCADES BY DAYBREAK. STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE AREAS OF MVFR ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES ASHORE. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN. AREAS OF MVFR WILL MOVE INTO THE INLAND AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK OF VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT ON THE COAST AND BY MORNING
INLAND BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN. WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY MID MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH HEAVIER RAIN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE KPDX AREA THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO AROUND
DAYBREAK LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE KPDX AREA IN AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE KPDX AREA SATURDAY
MORNING THEN MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE 400 NM WEST OF TILLAMOOK WILL MOVE TO OFF
WASHINGTON COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. INITIAL FRONT APPROACHING COAST
WILL MOVE ASHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE ASHORE AROUND MIDDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS WILL SPREAD CLOSER TO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
ALL THE WATERS UNTIL THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES BY. SEAS NEAR 10
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD INTO
THE INNER WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 10
FEET IN ALL THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH
UNTIL MIDDAY SAT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 080401
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
801 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE NEW 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM HAVE
ROLLED IN...AND SOME RELATIVELY MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
PRECIPITATION TIMING IN THE FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST NEAR 135W
THAT IS SLOWLY WORKING TOWARD THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAD BROUGHT THIS SYSTEM IN RELATIVELY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...HOWEVER THE NEW MODELS TONIGHT ARE QUITE A BIT SLOWER IN
DOING SO. THE LIKELY CULPRIT FOR THE SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESSION IS
A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTUALLY CLOSING OFF
ANOTHER 500 MB LOW NEAR THE COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF
THIS...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SURGES TOWARD THE AREA BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH TOMORROW WITH RELATIVELY STRONG
VERTICAL DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND A WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER WIND FIELD.
AS A RESULT...RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SPOKANE AND
SANDPOINT DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY. IN THE INTERLUDE BETWEEN
THE PRE-WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY CLEARING THE AREA TO
THE NORTHEAST ON RADAR AND THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE...A LESS RAINY REGIME WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AT LEAST UNTIL MORNING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE
MOIST AND UNDISTURBED RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. THIS FOG WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT A BIT TOMORROW MORNING
SPREADING OUTWARD FROM THE PALOUSE AS ISALLOBARIC FLOWS SUPPORT A
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE PALOUSE AND
WORKING NORTHWARD FROM THERE DURING THE MORNING.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. DUE TO THE DEEP CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...LOWS ARE UNLIKELY TO DROP MORE THAN A
DEGREE OR TWO FROM CURRENT READINGS. /FRIES
&&
.AVIATION...
PREDOMINATE IFR/LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS AT TAF SITES THRU 00Z
SUNDAY...SAVE FOR KLWS WHERE MVFR/LCL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND.
A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS NE WA TO CENTRAL ID
PANHANDLE AND CONTINUED PLUME OF MOISTURE RISING OVER IT...COUPLED
WITH A NEARLY SATURATED BL WILL ENABLE THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
EXPECT STEADY BUT GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED MTN OBSCURATIONS. BETWEEN 18Z SATURDAY
TO 00Z SUNDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND BOUNDARY COMES IN...SUGGESTING
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO MVFR/LCL IFR AT TAF SITES...AND MORE
SHOWERY PRECIP. /JCOTE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 40 48 39 47 35 47 / 90 100 50 40 20 30
COEUR D`ALENE 38 48 39 47 35 48 / 100 100 60 50 30 30
PULLMAN 45 53 39 49 34 48 / 80 80 60 50 20 30
LEWISTON 49 57 43 52 37 53 / 70 60 70 50 20 20
COLVILLE 36 46 43 48 33 49 / 100 100 50 40 30 40
SANDPOINT 36 46 39 46 36 46 / 100 100 50 40 50 50
KELLOGG 40 49 39 47 34 46 / 100 100 60 60 50 50
MOSES LAKE 42 51 39 52 33 52 / 100 100 20 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 40 50 43 51 36 52 / 100 100 20 20 20 20
OMAK 38 46 41 49 33 50 / 100 100 30 20 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 072318
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
SHORT BURST OF RAIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE OLYMPICS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKENS. STRONG WEST FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA NEXT WEEK WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS THAT THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED A BIT MORE
THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT HAS SHIFTED N. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE SO PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FROPA STILL LOOKS LIKE
09Z-12Z LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OLYMPICS AND PUGET SOUND. STILL LOOKING
FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IN
THE PAST DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT.
MODELS STILL HAVE THE BACK-BENT OCCLUSION CURRENTLY NEAR 45N/135W
WHACKING THE OLYMPICS AND FAR N CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE A BRIEF WINDY PERIOD FOR THE COAST...BUT
SPEEDS WILL BE WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AS IT IS
WEAKENING. SHOWERS LOOK GOOD FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE GFS KEEPS SOME PRECIP OVER THE AREA ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NAM IS ALMOST DRY. NAM ALSO SHOWS A LINE OF PRECIP APPROACHING THE
COAST LATE MONDAY...THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK SPLITTING FRONT. 18Z GFS
HAS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ZIPS ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR
ON MONDAY. WITH THE MODELS A LITTLE INCONSISTENT WILL JUST MAINTAIN
CLIMO POPS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. KAM
.LONG TERM...A STRONG WESTERLY JETSTREAM SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC
NEXT WEEK AND THE GFS DRIVES THE NEXT COLD FRONT AT THE AREA
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT-COLD FRONT PAIR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. 18Z
GFS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z RUN UP THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM. ECMWF SORT OF HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. NATURALLY WITH THIS
FAST ZONAL PATTERN...TIMING REMAINS COMPLETELY UNCERTAIN. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON EACH SYSTEM FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS. GFS
INDICATED A MINOR BREAK THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK TO CLIMO POPS FOR THESE DAYS. MID WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
PACKS MORE WIND THAN RECENT SYSTEMS. KAM
&&
.AVIATION...SEEMS TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION RIGHT NOW (23Z) ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR...BUT A BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDS IS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE COAST MOVING TOWARD WRN WA. MODERATE RAIN
WILL SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT AND BASICALLY PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON. SO...CIGS TO LOWER AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND THEN MID-LATE EVENING OVER THE
INTERIOR. LOOK FOR RAIN TO END OVER NEARLY ALL OF WRN WA AFTER 21Z
SAT WITH THINNING OF CLOUD LAYERS.
KSEA...HAVE A LITTLE WARM SECTOR BREAK IN PRECIP AND IFR CONDS OVER
AIRFIELD RIGHT NOW (23Z). OTHER THAN A PASSING SPRINKLE...THIS IDEA
SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ARND 03Z-05Z...A RENEWED ROUND
OF MODERATE RAIN WILL START TO INCREASE WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR
RANGES AND PERSISTING THROUGH SAT MORNING. RAIN SHOULD LET UP ARND
19Z-21Z SAT AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT MOVES OUT...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST BELOW 100. HANER
&&
.MARINE...A 995-1000 MB LOW CENTER WILL GRADUALLY AMBLE FROM 45N
137W THIS AFTERNOON TO JUST OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND ON SAT AFTERNOON.
PUSHED OFF ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR AGAIN
AS OFFSHORE PRESSURE FALLS FAVOR LIGHT NE WINDS THERE FOR AT LEAST A
FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...SE WINDS SHOULD COME UP QUICKLY THERE THIS
EVENING. HAVE HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE COAST FOR SAT
MORNING...BUT GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND MARGINAL.
CANNOT RULE OUT GALES OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTH INTERIOR LATE
SAT MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO OUT WITH
A WARNING AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW CENTER SPLITS/STRETCHES AND SINKS SOUTH OFF THE WA
COAST. HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THE COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL
STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE ENHANCED AFD PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML (ALL LOWERCASE)
000
FXUS66 KOTX 072234 AAA
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
234 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A STALLED OUT WARM FRONT
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE REMAINS POISED OVER THE REGION WITH PWATS OF 0.75 INCH.
THIS PLACES IT ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR SPOKANE. RAIN HAS
BEEN STEADY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. THE
LEANEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE SE ZONES...BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE LEWISTON AREA. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
THEN THE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT RIPPLE
MOVES INTO THE REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW. THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS
INTO A TRIPLE POINT THAT CROSSES THE COLUMBIA BASIN BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD...REFLECTING LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT READINGS. THE
RAINS AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL KEEP RUNOFF HIGH AND SMALL RIVERS
AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON AND NORTH
IDAHO MAY EXPERIENCE RISES AS WELL. A RIVER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST. RFOX.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STILL A FAIRLY WET
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME WITH A WELL
MAINTAINED AND ESTABLISHED TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MAKE A SLOW EASTWARD TREK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE PLUMES IS ORIENTED FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THAT IT
BECOMES LESS OF A CONTRIBUTOR TOWARD SENSIBLE WEATHER. THIS ALLOWS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW MORE FAVORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE RESULT IS POPS AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
GET SHIFTED FROM THE CASCADES AND POINTS TO THE NORTH AND MORE
TOWARD THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON...AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES SHOW A DECREASE IN POPS AS
THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS MORE LIKELY RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHICH
WOULD ACT TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
GENERATION. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO THROUGH THIS
PERIOD GIVEN ITS DYNAMIC NATURE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED MOST OF THE TIME. /PELATTI
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR
CORNERS AREA. A DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDS NORTH TOWARD THE ID
PANHANDLE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...AND AT LEAST ONE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE SLIPS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE CWA MONDAY. CHANCES WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BASIN AND CASCADES. THE FORECAST INDICATES WANING PRECIP CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY...SUPPORTED
BY 850 TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 0 DEG C AND
1000/500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 540 DAM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TWO (POTENTIALLY THREE)
SYSTEMS SLIDING ACROSS INLAND NW. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH MODELS BRING ONE
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AM. LOOK FOR
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THIS TIME FRAME. BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT
INDICATING TOO MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...RELATIVELY SPEAKING.
THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE IS ALREADY DEPICTED APPROACHING THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A COMPARATIVELY WETTER
SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A PWAT FETCH OF OVER 1.5 INCHES. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND BRINGS MILDER TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW
LEVEL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS MOISTURE PLUME FEEDS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES EARLY THURSDAY AND THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETREAT TO THE MTN ZONES. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS WETTER...THERE ARE
STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IT PROPELS A SHARPER AND COLDER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE JET PUNCHING ACROSS THE INLAND NW. THE ECMWF IS
MORE ZONAL/WEAKER WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE JET AXIS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. IT DOES NOT INDICATE AS MUCH OF A
COOL DOWN WITH THE FRONT. A THIRD POTENTIAL SYSTEM COMES TOWARD
THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
BROUGHT THE SYSTEM IN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE 12Z GFS AND NOW THE
RECENT 12Z ECMWF HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM TO FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES GO DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH SOME LINGERING CONSISTENCY ISSUES POPS REMAIN IN AT LEAST
THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS 850 TEMPS RISE
TOWARD THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS. LOOK FOR A RELATIVE COOL DOWN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT STILL NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. /JCOTE
&&
.AVIATION...
PREDOMINATE IFR/LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS AT TAF SITES THRU 00Z
SUNDAY...SAVE FOR KLWS WHERE MVFR/LCL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND.
A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS NE WA TO CENTRAL ID
PANHANDLE AND CONTINUED PLUME OF MOISTURE RISING OVER IT...COUPLED
WITH A NEARLY SATURATED BL WILL ENABLE THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
EXPECT STEADY BUT GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED MTN OBSCURATIONS. BETWEEN 18Z SATURDAY
TO 00Z SUNDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND BOUNDARY COMES IN...SUGGESTING
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO MVFR/LCL IFR AT TAF SITES...AND MORE
SHOWERY PRECIP. /JCOTE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 40 48 39 47 35 47 / 100 90 50 40 20 30
COEUR D`ALENE 39 48 39 47 35 48 / 100 90 60 50 30 30
PULLMAN 45 53 39 49 34 48 / 80 90 60 50 20 30
LEWISTON 49 57 43 52 37 53 / 60 80 70 50 20 20
COLVILLE 36 46 43 48 33 49 / 100 90 50 40 30 40
SANDPOINT 36 46 39 46 36 46 / 100 90 50 40 50 50
KELLOGG 41 49 39 47 34 46 / 100 90 60 60 50 50
MOSES LAKE 42 51 39 52 33 52 / 70 70 20 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 40 50 43 51 36 52 / 70 80 20 20 20 20
OMAK 38 46 41 49 33 50 / 100 90 30 20 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KPQR 072217
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
216 PM PST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM WESTERN WA SW OVER THE
PAC WILL PUSH INLAND SAT...USHERING IN A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK OFFER A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KICKS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...DRYING IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WITH VORT MAX NEAR 135W
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 130W SUGGEST A
STRENGTHENING OF THE SHORT WAVE OFFSHORE. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NNE
OVERNIGHT...TAIL END OF TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN LATER TONIGHT...
WHICH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SPOTTY AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SO WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH COMING IN LATE SAT...WITH BEST DYNAMICS
HEADING INLAND INTO NORTHERN CA. WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND DYNAMICS BEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN...SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW BACK DOWN TO PASS LEVELS SAT NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING SUN AND MON WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED TO THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK
A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES DURING THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD.
BROWN
&&
.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT IS N OF THE AREA. THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH. CEILINGS RANGE FROM 2500 FT TO AROUND 4000 FT. A COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LAYERS OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
STEADIER RAIN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. &&
.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS LIE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY...WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND TIGHTEN GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING GALE GUSTS.
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL MOVES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE GALES THROUGH LATE MORNING SAT. SEAS AROUND
10 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD A COUPLE MORE FEET TONIGHT. A SECOND
FRONTAL WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SAT. BY SUN...WILL SEE
SWELL THAT WAS GENERATED OVER THE N PAC ARRIVING WHICH COULD PEAK IN
THE UPPER TEENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH
LATE SAT MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 072206
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
206 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A STALLED OUT WARM FRONT
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE REMAINS POISED OVER THE REGION WITH PWATS OF 0.75 INCH.
THIS PLACES IT ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR SPOKANE. RAIN HAS
BEEN STEADY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. THE
LEANEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE SE ZONES...BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE LEWISTON AREA. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
THEN THE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT RIPPLE
MOVES INTO THE REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW. THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS
INTO A TRIPLE POINT THAT CROSSES THE COLUMBIA BASIN BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD...REFLECTING LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT READINGS. THE
RAINS AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL KEEP RUNOFF HIGH AND SMALL RIVERS
AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON AND NORTH
IDAHO MAY EXPERIENCE RISES AS WELL. A RIVER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST. RFOX.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STILL A FAIRLY WET
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME WITH A WELL
MAINTAINED AND ESTABLISHED TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MAKE A SLOW EASTWARD TREK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE PLUMES IS ORIENTED FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THAT IT
BECOMES LESS OF A CONTRIBUTOR TOWARD SENSIBLE WEATHER. THIS ALLOWS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW MORE FAVORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE RESULT IS POPS AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
GET SHIFTED FROM THE CASCADES AND POINTS TO THE NORTH AND MORE
TOWARD THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON...AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES SHOW A DECREASE IN POPS AS
THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS MORE LIKELY RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHICH
WOULD ACT TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
GENERATION. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO THROUGH THIS
PERIOD GIVEN ITS DYNAMIC NATURE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED MOST OF THE TIME. /PELATTI
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR
CORNERS AREA. A DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDS NORTH TOWARD THE ID
PANHANDLE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...AND AT LEAST ONE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE SLIPS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE CWA MONDAY. CHANCES WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BASIN AND CASCADES. THE FORECAST INDICATES WANING PRECIP CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY...SUPPORTED
BY 850 TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 0 DEG C AND
1000/500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 540 DAM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TWO (POTENTIALLY THREE)
SYSTEMS SLIDING ACROSS INLAND NW. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH MODELS BRING ONE
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AM. LOOK FOR
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THIS TIME FRAME. BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT
INDICATING TOO MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...RELATIVELY SPEAKING.
THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE IS ALREADY DEPICTED APPROACHING THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A COMPARATIVELY WETTER
SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A PWAT FETCH OF OVER 1.5 INCHES. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND BRINGS MILDER TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW
LEVEL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS MOISTURE PLUME FEEDS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES EARLY THURSDAY AND THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETREAT TO THE MTN ZONES. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS WETTER...THERE ARE
STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IT PROPELS A SHARPER AND COLDER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE JET PUNCHING ACROSS THE INLAND NW. THE ECMWF IS
MORE ZONAL/WEAKER WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE JET AXIS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. IT DOES NOT INDICATE AS MUCH OF A
COOL DOWN WITH THE FRONT. A THIRD POTENTIAL SYSTEM COMES TOWARD
THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
BROUGHT THE SYSTEM IN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE 12Z GFS AND NOW THE
RECENT 12Z ECMWF HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM TO FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES GO DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH SOME LINGERING CONSISTENCY ISSUES POPS REMAIN IN AT LEAST
THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS 850 TEMPS RISE
TOWARD THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS. LOOK FOR A RELATIVE COOL DOWN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT STILL NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. /JCOTE
&&
.AVIATION...
A VERY WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO UNIVERSAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS
WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL LINGER AT THE KGEG TAF SITE
THROUGH 18Z...WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
VIS IN RAIN THROUGH 06Z...THEN DETERIORATE AGAIN TO LIFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 40 48 39 47 35 47 / 100 90 50 40 20 30
COEUR D`ALENE 39 48 39 47 35 48 / 100 90 60 50 30 30
PULLMAN 45 53 39 49 34 48 / 80 90 60 50 20 30
LEWISTON 49 57 43 52 37 53 / 60 80 70 50 20 20
COLVILLE 36 46 43 48 33 49 / 100 90 50 40 30 40
SANDPOINT 36 46 39 46 36 46 / 100 90 50 40 50 50
KELLOGG 41 49 39 47 34 46 / 100 90 60 60 50 50
MOSES LAKE 42 51 39 52 33 52 / 70 70 20 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 40 50 43 51 36 52 / 70 80 20 20 20 20
OMAK 38 46 41 49 33 50 / 100 90 30 20 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KOTX 071904
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1104 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. ONLY THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE LEWISTON AREA
SEEM TO BE MISSING THE RAIN. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...LEAVING AREAS TO THE SOUTH WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLEAR RAIN FROM THE SPOKANE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS HAVE JUMPED TO OVER 6000 FEET...ALTHOUGH A
SHALLOW COLD LAYER DID RESIDE IN THE UPPER VALLEYS OF THE
CASCADES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MIXED PRECIPITATION. BASED ON
THE LATEST HYDROGRAPHS AND PRECIPITATION REPORTS...ISSUED A RVS
FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES ON RAPID
RISES. AT THIS TIME...NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. RFOX.
&&
.AVIATION...
A VERY WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO UNIVERSAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS
WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL LINGER AT THE KGEG TAF SITE
THROUGH 18Z...WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
VIS IN RAIN THROUGH 06Z...THEN DETERIORATE AGAIN TO LIFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 44 42 48 39 47 35 / 100 90 90 50 40 20
COEUR D`ALENE 44 39 48 39 47 35 / 100 90 90 60 50 30
PULLMAN 50 43 53 39 49 34 / 90 60 90 60 50 20
LEWISTON 54 45 57 43 52 37 / 70 60 80 70 50 20
COLVILLE 40 33 46 43 48 33 / 100 100 90 50 40 30
SANDPOINT 42 36 46 39 46 36 / 100 100 90 50 40 50
KELLOGG 43 42 49 39 47 34 / 100 100 90 60 60 50
MOSES LAKE 48 42 51 39 52 33 / 60 60 70 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 47 43 50 43 51 36 / 60 60 80 20 20 20
OMAK 42 37 46 41 49 33 / 80 80 90 30 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 071723
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT
BURST OF RAIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE OLYMPICS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA AND WEAKENS. STRONG WEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT NEAR 132W APPROACHES
THE AREA. 06Z GFS/12Z NAM HAVE THE COLD FRONT POSITION PINNED DOWN
WELL PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. NAM/WRF-GFS PRECIP PROGS SHOW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AREAS SHIFTING N THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD GIVE
THE SE OLYMPICS AND CENTRAL CASCADES-SNOQUALMIE BASIN A SHORT
RESPITE.
GFS/NAM AGREE WELL ON FROPA OVER THE OLYMPICS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z
TONIGHT AND OVER PUGET SOUND SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...WE`RE NOT
QUITE DONE YET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE BACK-BENT OCCLUSION
WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 140W. MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE
TO THE OLYMPICS AROUND 18Z SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING LEVEL WAS 9800 FEET AT
QUILLAYUTE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 9000 FEET UNTIL
AFTER FROPA LATE TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 7000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN 6000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER W WA SATURDAY EVENING AS IT IS
FILLING AND WEAKENING. GFS SHOWS RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES IN BEHIND THE LOW.
NAM IS A LOT DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR SUNDAY BUT DOES SHOW SOME
SHOWERS ON MONDAY. KAM
.LONG TERM...GFS HAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. A STRONG WESTERLY JETSTREAM SETS UP OVER THE NE
PACIFIC NEXT WEEK AND THE GFS DRIVES THE NEXT COLD FRONT AT THE AREA
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT-COLD FRONT PAIR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
NATURALLY WITH THIS FAST ZONAL PATTERN...TIMING REMAINS COMPLETELY
UNCERTAIN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON EACH SYSTEM FOR POTENTIALLY
STRONG WINDS. CURRENT BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND
BREEZY LOOKS GOOD. KAM
&&
.AVIATION...HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY OVER THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. FURTHER
SOUTH...RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY BUT MAY LET UP THE INTENSITY.
AM THINKING THAT INCREASING SE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY
OCCASIONALLY CAUSE CIGS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM KPAE SOUTH TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
KSEA...SE GRADIENTS...OR A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD KEEP PREVAILING CIGS IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...WHILE A LETUP IN RAINFALL INTENSITY ALLOWS VSBYS TO
RISE TO 5-6SM OR GREATER. 12Z NAM SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY 925 MB WINDS
(ARND FL020) PEAKING FROM 18Z-21Z NEAR 40 KTS...THEN FALLING BACK TO
A 25-30 KT FROM 00Z THROUGH THIS EVENING. HANER
&&
.MARINE...A 995-999 MB LOW CENTER WILL GRADUALLY AMBLE FROM 45N 140W
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND ON SAT AFTERNOON. SE
GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN WA WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS
IN TYPICAL E/SE PRONE LOCATIONS. PUSHED OFF ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT
WINDS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR AS OFFSHORE PRESSURE FALLS FAVOR LIGHT
NE WINDS THERE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...MAYBE LONGER. WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
ENTRANCE AS SE GRADIENTS PEAK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CALM DOWN
TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER SPLITS/STRETCHES AND SINKS SOUTH
OFF THE WA COAST. HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE ENHANCED AFD PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML (ALL LOWERCASE)
000
FXUS66 KPQR 071645
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
844 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
WA...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OREGON
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DISTRICT AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW MOST CASCADE PASS LEVELS
BY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PASSES. COOL
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME CLEARING MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS
LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
WET SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS DIRECTED INTO
WESTERN WA TODAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST TO THE N
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER S MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY...WITH SATELLITE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY LIFT NE
INTO THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN IN OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME COOL AIR
TRAPPED IN THE GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THE GORGE...SOUTHERLIES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LARGER STORM SYSTEM
WILL LEAVE REGION IN MILD AIR TODAY.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
RAIN SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FRONT
PIVOTS SE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...AS MODELS HINT AT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THUS SOME
INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE 06Z GFS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING ZERO DEG C
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. COOL
SHOWERY REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF
DRYING BY MONDAY. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING BACK A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES DURING THE
MIDWEEK AND LATEWEEK PERIOD. WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE
DISTRICT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST REMAINS WET AND
PROBABLY MILD. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT IS N OF THE AREA WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
GENERALLY VFR INLAND AND POCKETS OF MVFR IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LAYERS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WITH
STEADIER RAIN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...
THEN MVFR MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS LIE BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT TO THE W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH E TODAY AND
TIGHTEN GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING GALE GUSTS. WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGTH AS THE FRONT WILL MOVES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINE THE GALES THROUGH LATE MORNING SAT. SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 11 TODAY...THEN BUILDING A BIT MORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SAT. BY SUN...WILL SEE SWELL
THAT WAS GENERATED OVER THE N PAC ARRIVING WHICH COULD PEAK AT 18 TO
20 FT.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH
LATE SAT MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR MIDDAY TODAY AND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 071224 CCA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...THE WARM FRONT THAT PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THURSDAY HAS STALLED OVER WASHINGTON...WITH STEADY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN FALLING JUST NORTH OF OUR DISTRICT. EVENTUALLY A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN
IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WITH SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW MOST CASCADE PASS LEVELS BY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PASSES. COOL SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME CLEARING MONDAY. HOWEVER
ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE WET SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...STALLED FRONT OVER WASHINGTON PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...WITH 3-6 INCHES ALREADY
REPORTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE SPARING OUR
DISTRICT...AS AXIS OF HIGH PW AIR REMAINS FOCUSED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF PACIFIC COUNTY. THUS FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE MAXED OUT
AT ABOUT 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAPA HILLS...STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME IMPRESSIVE RISES ON THE GRAYS RIVER...WHICH IS APPROACHING
BANKFULL AT ROSBURG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WILLAPA HILLS THIS MORNING...SO THIS RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE FRONT BEGINS TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY.
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...IN OREGON...ITS A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY
AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS STILL GENERATING SOME RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON COAST
RANGE...BUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS BEEN MAINLY DRY THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE OREGON CASCADES AND SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY REMAINING DRY. RAIN SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FRONT PIVOTS SE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...AS MODELS HINT AT
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THUS SOME INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE 06Z GFS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING ZERO DEG C
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. COOL
SHOWERY REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF
DRYING BY MONDAY. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOL WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES DURING THE MIDWEEK AND LATEWEEK PERIOD. WITH FAST ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH
SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE MID TO LATE
WEEK FORECAST REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT IS N OF THE AREA...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
GENERALLY VFR INLAND...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE IN A
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. STILL POOR CONDITIONS ON THE N COAST
WHERE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING IFR AND MVFR...BUT MAINLY VFR
CENTRAL COAST. VFR WILL DOMINATE INLAND CONDITIONS TODAY. IFR ON N
COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY 14Z...WITH BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE
AROUND MIDDAY...BUT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO MVFR AS
FRONTAL MOISTURE SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR FOR
THE CENTRAL COAST UNTIL MVFR DOMINATES AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. RW
KPDX AND APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...
THEN MVFR MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS LIE BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH E TODAY AND
TIGHTEN GRADIENTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SEEMS TO BE DECENT SUPPORT FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 TODAY...THEN BUILDING A BIT
MORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SAT. BY
SUN...WILL SEE SWELL THAT WAS GENERATED OVER THE N PAC ARRIVING.
COULD TOP AT 18 TO 20 FT... BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT BEFORE
GETTING GRASP ON DETAIL.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN EFFECT FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR MIDDAY TODAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 071135
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
334 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE FOCUS
A LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON WITH SNOW
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE INDICATES A CONTINUOUS LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS HOSING INTO THE NORTHWEST
USA THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF WAVES AND FRONTS ARE STACKED OFF THE
COAST WAITING THEIR TURN TO ENHANCE THIS MOISTURE PLUME INTO
PERIODS OF RAIN AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS.
FOR THE NEXT 42 HOURS A GENERALLY STATIONARY FRONT LAYS DRAPED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE
NOTABLE ON SATELLITE JUST OFF THE COAST INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER JUST ABOUT EVERY LOCATION THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN
WILL LAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL COMPLEX WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY...BUT STILL VERY COMMON. THUS IN SOME RESPECTS A
RELATIVELY SIMPLE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAIN...AND LOTS OF
IT. FREEZING LEVELS WILL STAY VERY HIGH WITH THE NORTHWARD TREK OF
THE FRONT TODAY FOR NO SNOW THREAT EXCEPT ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
HYDRO CONCERNS WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION DRAINS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. A SURVEY OF
FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS INDICATES NO FLOODING POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME
DESPITE SOME SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. CURRENT
HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT APPEARS STILL VALID...BUT THIS ISSUE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. /FUGAZZI
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE WA/OR COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO UTAH SUNDAY. FOR
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SEND ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN BOUTS OF SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. THEN SAT NGT AND SUNDAY
MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE DETAILS CONCERNING A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION
ZONE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE 00Z RUNS. THE 00Z GFS HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE OVER EASTERN WA/N IDAHO AND
HAS SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP INTO EASTERN OR AND
CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN TRACK OF SYSTEM INTO
UTAH. THIS SOLUTION IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
MODELS. NET RESULT IS NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES SINCE PRIOR
FORECAST HAD THIS GENERAL IDEA. FOR SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND
WITH A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE CASCADES AND FROM ABOUT
MOSES LAKE TO SPOKANE AND POINTS NORTH. THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY
CLOUDY WITH STRATUS A COMMON THEME. IF THE STRATUS BREAKS UP A
LITTLE BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN FOG WOULD BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PUT INTO FORECAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. OVERALL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY RESULTING
IN THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WA/N
IDAHO...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS IN THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES. HIGHEST POPS OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD AS MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHEN THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL WILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS...BLUE MTNS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE...WITH RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN WA MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS 4-5K FEET. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
A VERY WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO UNIVERSAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS
WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THROUG 12Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL LINGER AT THE KGEG TAF SITE
THROUGH 18Z...WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
VIS IN RAIN THROUGH 06Z...THEN DETERIORATE AGAIN TO LIFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 44 42 48 39 47 35 / 100 90 80 50 40 20
COEUR D`ALENE 44 39 48 40 47 35 / 100 90 80 60 50 30
PULLMAN 50 43 53 39 49 34 / 90 60 80 60 50 20
LEWISTON 54 45 57 43 52 37 / 70 50 60 70 50 20
COLVILLE 40 33 45 43 48 33 / 100 100 80 50 30 30
SANDPOINT 42 36 45 42 46 36 / 100 100 80 50 30 50
KELLOGG 43 42 49 39 47 34 / 100 100 80 60 60 50
MOSES LAKE 48 42 50 39 52 33 / 60 60 50 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 47 43 50 43 51 36 / 60 60 50 20 20 20
OMAK 42 37 46 41 49 33 / 80 80 60 30 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KPQR 071101
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008
.SYNOPSIS...THE WARM FRONT THAT PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THURSDAY HAS STALLED OVER WASHINGTON...WITH STEADY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN FALLING JUST NORTH OF OUR DISTRICT. EVENTUALLY A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN
IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WITH SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW MOST CASCADE PASS LEVELS BY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PASSES. COOL SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME CLEARING MONDAY. HOWEVER
ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE WET SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...STALLED FRONT OVER WASHINGTON PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...WITH 3-6 INCHES ALREADY
REPORTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE SPARING OUR
DISTRICT...AS AXIS OF HIGH PW AIR REMAINS FOCUSED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF PACIFIC COUNTY. THUS FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE MAXED OUT
AT ABOUT 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAPA HILLS...STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME IMPRESSIVE RISES ON THE GRAYS RIVER...WHICH IS APPROACHING
BANKFULL AT ROSBURG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WILLAPA HILLS THIS MORNING...SO THIS RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE FRONT BEGINS TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY.
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...IN OREGON...ITS A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY
AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS STILL GENERATING SOME RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON COAST
RANGE...BUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS BEEN MAINLY DRY THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE OREGON CASCADES AND SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY REMAINING DRY. RAIN SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FRONT PIVOTS SE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...AS MODELS HINT AT
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THUS SOME INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE 06Z GFS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING ZERO DEG C
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. COOL
SHOWERY REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF
DRYING BY MONDAY. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOL WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING BACK A WARMER AIR MASS AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES DURING THE MIDWEEK AND LATEWEEK PERIOD. WITH FAST ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE DISTRICT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH
SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE MID TO LATE
WEEK FORECAST REMAINS WET AND PROBABLY MILD. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT IS N OF THE AREA...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
GENERALLY VFR INLAND...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE IN A
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. STILL POOR CONDITIONS ON THE N COAST
WHERE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING IFR AND MVFR...BUT MAINLY VFR
CENTRAL COAST. VFR WILL DOMINATE INLAND CONDITIONS TODAY. IFR ON N
COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY 14Z...WITH BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE
AROUND MIDDAY...BUT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO MVFR AS
FRONTAL MOISTURE SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR FOR
THE CENTRAL COAST UNTIL MVFR DOMINATES AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. RW
KPDX AND APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...
THEN MVFR MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS LIE BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH E TODAY AND
TIGHTEN GRADIENTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SEEMS TO BE DECENT SUPPORT FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 TODAY...THEN BUILDING A BIT
MORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SAT. BY
SUN...WILL SEE SWELL THAT WAS GENERATED OVER THE N PAC ARRIVING.
COULD TOP AT 18 TO 20 FT... BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT BEFORE
GETTING GRASP ON DETAIL.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN EFFECT FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR MIDDAY TODAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 071034
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
234 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MAINLY WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE FOCUS
A LONG AND DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON WITH SNOW
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE INDICATES A CONTINUOUS LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS HOSING INTO THE NORTHWEST
USA THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF WAVES AND FRONTS ARE STACKED OFF THE
COAST WAITING THEIR TURN TO ENHANCE THIS MOISTURE PLUME INTO
PERIODS OF RAIN AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS.
FOR THE NEXT 42 HOURS A GENERALLY STATIONARY FRONT LAYS DRAPED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE
NOTABLE ON SATELLITE JUST OFF THE COAST INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER JUST ABOUT EVERY LOCATION THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN
WILL LAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL COMPLEX WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY...BUT STILL VERY COMMON. THUS IN SOME RESPECTS A
RELATIVELY SIMPLE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAIN...AND LOTS OF
IT. FREEZING LEVELS WILL STAY VERY HIGH WITH THE NORTHWARD TREK OF
THE FRONT TODAY FOR NO SNOW THREAT EXCEPT ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
HYDRO CONCERNS WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION DRAINS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. A SURVEY OF
FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS INDICATES NO FLOODING POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME
DESPITE SOME SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. CURRENT
HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT APPEARS STILL VALID...BUT THIS ISSUE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. /FUGAZZI
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE WA/OR COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO UTAH SUNDAY. FOR
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SEND ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN BOUTS OF SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. THEN SAT NGT AND SUNDAY
MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE DETAILS CONCERNING A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION
ZONE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE 00Z RUNS. THE 00Z GFS HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE OVER EASTERN WA/N IDAHO AND
HAS SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP INTO EASTERN OR AND
CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN TRACK OF SYSTEM INTO
UTAH. THIS SOLUTION IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
MODELS. NET RESULT IS NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES SINCE PRIOR
FORECAST HAD THIS GENERAL IDEA. FOR SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND
WITH A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE CASCADES AND FROM ABOUT
MOSES LAKE TO SPOKANE AND POINTS NORTH. THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY
CLOUDY WITH STRATUS A COMMON THEME. IF THE STRATUS BREAKS UP A
LITTLE BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN FOG WOULD BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PUT INTO FORECAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. OVERALL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY RESULTING
IN THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WA/N
IDAHO...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS IN THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES. HIGHEST POPS OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD AS MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHEN THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL WILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS...BLUE MTNS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE...WITH RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN WA MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS 4-5K FEET. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR VIS/CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOKANE
TAF UNDER LIGHT TO CALM SFC WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF TEMPORARILY
IMPROVING THESE LOW VIS/CEILINGS WILL BE FROM FALLING RAIN
PRODUCING BRIEF DRY MIXING. THIS TEMPO CATEGORY CHANGE TO MVFR HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT. KLWS SO FAR APPEARS
TO BE THE ONLY BRIGHT SPOT AS FAR AS AVIATION IS CONCERNED...WITH
VFR CEILINGS COMMON FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...AIDED BY SFC WINDS
SUSTAINED 10-13KT. TO THE WEST...IFR WX WILL BE LIKELY FROM KMWH
TO KEAT. PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN AS RAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS. BZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 44 42 48 39 47 35 / 100 90 80 50 40 20
COEUR D`ALENE 44 39 48 40 47 35 / 100 90 80 60 50 30
PULLMAN 50 43 53 39 49 34 / 90 60 80 60 50 20
LEWISTON 54 45 57 43 52 37 / 70 50 60 70 50 20
COLVILLE 40 33 45 43 48 33 / 100 100 80 50 30 30
SANDPOINT 42 36 45 42 46 36 / 100 100 80 50 30 50
KELLOGG 43 42 49 39 47 34 / 100 100 80 60 60 50
MOSES LAKE 48 42 50 39 52 33 / 60 60 50 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 47 43 50 43 51 36 / 60 60 50 20 20 20
OMAK 42 37 46 41 49 33 / 80 80 60 30 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 071032 CCA
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A COOL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF
VIGOROUS WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RAIN WAS HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES TO BE
FALLING AT THE RATE OF .20" AN HOUR IN SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AND IN THE MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHELTON HAD .40" IN THE
2AM HOUR. WE ARE ABOUT HALFWAY THRU THE EVENT WITH ANOTHER 2-4" OF
RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE WETTEST SPOTS SHOULD END UP WITH
ANOTHER 6" ON THE SW SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS IN THE NEXT 24HRS. A
HALF TO 1.5" FOR THE LOWLANDS...MORE FOR THE WETTEST SPOTS...ANOTHER
3" FOR SHELTON TDY. THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WRN WA BACK TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT
SURGE COMES ASHORE. RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MIDDAY SATURDAY. 850MB WINDS PICK UP ARND 15Z AND REMAIN SW
30-40KT THRU TONIGHT IN A DEEP LAYER DOWN TO ARND 2000FT...850MB
TEMP IS AROUND 8C TODAY COOLING TO 4C SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVEL WONT
DROP TO PASS LEVEL TIL SATURDAY EVENING. SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND SAT NITE AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES
THRU THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS DECREASING BEHIND THE TROF. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MON...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND THE NEXT FRONT WELL OFFSHORE TIMED
TO REACH WRN WA MIDDAY TUE. 19
.LONG TERM...GFS SHOWS A FRONT EARLY WED WITH A 972MB LOW TRACKING
TOWARD THE CHARLOTTES. THE FRONT IS NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG). ANOTHER FNTL SYS ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT ARRIVES...WITH A 160KT JET
BEHIND IT THAT LOOKS LIKE A SYSTEM TO WATCH. THE NE PACIFIC HAS BEEN
ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PROGS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAD SEVERAL
FNTL SYSTEMS ON TAP THRU NEXT WEEK. THE FCST IS BROADBRUSHED FOR NOW
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY...AND WINDY AT TIMES COAST AND NORTH
PART...CLIMO FOR MID NOV. 19
&&
.AVIATION...A STALLED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA WITH VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS MORNING 15-18Z...WITH WINDS IN THE 2000 TO 5000
FOOT LAYER RISING TO 35 TO 45 KT AND PERSISTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING.
KSEA...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW
MVFR...AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS. REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY SOUTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED SOMEWHAT IN THE
PAST 2 OR 3 HOURS...AND WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ON THE
COAST...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. PUGET
SOUND WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. EXPECTING A BREAK IN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. MORE
FRONTS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT
AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS
HARBOR BAR.
$$
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 071009
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A COOL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF
VIGOROUS WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RAIN WAS HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES TO BE
FALLING AT THE RATE OF .20" AN HOUR IN SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AND IN THE MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. WE ARE ABOUT HALFWAY
THRU THE EVENT WITH ANOTHER 2-4" OF RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS NEXT
24HRS AND A HALF TO 1.5" FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WRN WA BACK TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURGE COMES ASHORE. RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MIDDAY SATURDAY. 850MB WINDS PICK UP ARND
15Z AND REMAIN SW 30-40KT THRU TONIGHT IN A DEEP LAYER DOWN TO ARND
2000FT...850MB TEMP IS AROUND 8C TODAY COOLING TO 4C SAT MORNING.
SNOW LEVEL WONT DROP TO PASS LEVEL TIL SATURDAY EVENING. SHOULD
STILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND SAT NITE AND SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS DECREASING BEHIND THE
TROF. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WITH A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND THE NEXT FRONT WELL
OFFSHORE TIMED TO REACH WRN WA MIDDAY TUE. 19
.LONG TERM...GFS SHOWS A FRONT EARLY WED WITH A 972MB LOW TRACKING
TOWARD THE CHARLOTTES. THE FRONT IS NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG). ANOTHER FNTL SYS ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT ARRIVES...WITH A 160KT JET
BEHIND IT THAT LOOKS LIKE A SYSTEM TO WATCH. THE NE PACIFIC HAS BEEN
ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PROGS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAD SEVERAL
FNTL SYSTEMS ON TAP THRU NEXT WEEK. THE FCST IS BROADBRUSHED FOR NOW
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY...AND WINDY AT TIMES COAST AND NORTH
PART...CLIMO FOR MID NOV. 19
&&
.AVIATION...A STALLED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA WITH VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS MORNING 15-18Z...WITH WINDS IN THE 2000 TO 5000
FOOT LAYER RISING TO 35 TO 45 KT AND PERSISTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING.
KSEA...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW
MVFR...AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS. REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY SOUTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED SOMEWHAT IN THE
PAST 2 OR 3 HOURS...AND WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ON THE
COAST...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. PUGET
SOUND WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. EXPECTING A BREAK IN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. MORE
FRONTS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT
AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS
HARBOR BAR.
$$
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000
FXUS66 KOTX 070611 AAA
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1011 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY. WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008/
TONIGHT...AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ON THE PACIFIC MERCATOR
MAP PROJECTION SHOWS THE WELL RESOLVED MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS
TAPPED INTO PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND IS CURRENTLY SAGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. POPS REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS EVENT AS IT
INITIALLY OVERRUNS SOME COOL AIR STILL STUBBORNLY STICKING TO
LOWER LEVELS AND ALLOWING FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
OCCUR AT TIMES WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
ONSET OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TENDING TO REMAIN FROM MORE
OF A SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH DIRECTION WHICH IS NOT THE BEST
ORIENTATION TO KEEP ANY COLD AIR IN PLACE...BUT THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN STILL INHIBITS ANY TREND AT A CLEAN HOMOGENEOUS TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND A MIXTURE OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
REMAINS IN PLACE IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM THROUGH THE EVENING AND
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON AND THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
CONTINUE TO BE UTILIZED TO COMMUNICATE THE NUISANCE ISSUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION EPISODE WHICH LINGERS INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH FOR NOW LOOK TO BE MINOR RISES ON MOST MAIN STEM
RIVERS RUNNING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN CASCADES ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME MODERATE RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN
IDAHO PANHANDLE. /PELATTI
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY AND
THEN SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF WEATHER FEATURES
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS IN LINE WITH SATELLITE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH AND A HALF. WITH THE FIRE
HOSE POINTING AT WA AND NORTH ID HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP
VERY HIGH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO RISE WHERE SNOW ON
MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT A
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PAC NW. MODELS AGREE ON
DIGGING THE TROUGH AND THE STRONGER ENERGY DIVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HOWEVER DO NOT KNOW WHAT TO DO
OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE GFS CREATES A SURFACE AND 700 MB
LOW RIGHT OVER EASTERN WA AND DUMPS OVER AN INCH OF PRECIP JUST
WEST OF SPOKANE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE NAM DOES NOT HAVE
THESE FEATURES AND SHOWS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP. DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE EITHER SOLUTION...BUT GIVEN THE FIRE
HOSE POINTED AT THE PAC NW WENT WITH A WET SOLUTION AND KEPT HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FOR EXTREME EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID. DID DRY
OUT THE BASIN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL NOT VARY GREATLY FROM DAY
TO NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A 2-5 DEGREE DROP FROM FRIDAY TO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SATURDAY A 2-5 DEGREE RISE DURING THE DAY.
/NISBET
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG-WAVE MODELS INDICATE AN ACTIVE AND
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW THIS PERIOD....WITH MODELS LINING UP WAVE
AFTER WAVE LINED UP TO PUNCH ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST IN SOME
FORM OR FASHION. SUNDAY...A SYSTEM NOW NEAR 40N/150W GETS STRUNG
ACROSS THE WEST. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC LIFT IS SPLIT INTO THE
GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION. YET MOISTURE IS FLUNG UP ITS EAST
SIDE TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE INLAND NW REMAINS IN A
MEAN W TO SW FLOW...WITH A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING OVER EAST WA/NRN ID. MOISTURE
ALSO PUSHES UP INTO THE CASCADES AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES HIGH
HERE. THE LEE OF THE CASCADES WILL ONLY SEE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER COUPLE WAVES COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING. A MORE DYNAMIC
WAVE COMES IN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATING THE RISK FOR
PRECIP THROUGH ALL THE CWA. CHANCES WANE SLIGHTLY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT YET ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN ELEVATES THE RISK FOR PRECIP. MODELS DO
DIVERGE HOWEVER ON HOW HIGH TO RAISE 500 MB HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS WAVE AND HOW MUCH WARMTH TO PUMP UP INTO THE AREA.
AFTER TODAY ALL MODELS SHOW 850 TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID-SINGLE
DIGITS INTO SUNDAY...THEN RETURNING TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO
NEAR ZERO DEG C MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEY DIVERGE THURSDAY. THE
GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES COOL...WHILE THE ECMWF/DGEX BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS. MODELS DIVERGE IN
SIMILAR FASHION WHEN IT COMES TO THE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (WHICH
CORRELATES TO SNOW LEVEL). AFTER SUNDAY DAYTIME WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AVERAGE AROUND 3500-5000 FT AND NEAR 2000-4000 FT AT NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
THE GFS HOLDS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 3500-4500 FT...BUT THE
ECMWF/DGEX PUSH THE VALUES TOWARD 6000-9000 FT. A BLEND WAS USED
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THIS KEEPS SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE
VALLEYS FLOORS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. /JCOTE
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR VIS/CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOKANE
TAF UNDER LIGHT TO CALM SFC WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF TEMPORARILY
IMPROVING THESE LOW VIS/CEILINGS WILL BE FROM FALLING RAIN
PRODUCING BRIEF DRY MIXING. THIS TEMPO CATEGORY CHANGE TO MVFR HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT. KLWS SO FAR APPEARS
TO BE THE ONLY BRIGHT SPOT AS FAR AS AVIATION IS CONCERNED...WITH
VFR CEILINGS COMMON FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...AIDED BY SFC WINDS
SUSTAINED 10-13KT. TO THE WEST...IFR WX WILL BE LIKELY FROM KMWH
TO KEAT. PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN AS RAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS. BZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 35 48 44 50 39 48 / 80 90 90 70 50 40
COEUR D`ALENE 36 48 44 50 40 48 / 80 90 90 80 60 50
PULLMAN 40 53 45 53 39 49 / 70 80 70 70 60 50
LEWISTON 44 56 49 57 43 53 / 60 50 50 50 70 50
COLVILLE 33 44 42 48 40 49 / 80 70 90 70 50 30
SANDPOINT 31 46 42 49 41 47 / 90 90 90 80 50 30
KELLOGG 35 47 42 49 39 46 / 90 100 90 80 60 60
MOSES LAKE 37 48 44 52 39 53 / 50 60 70 50 20 20
WENATCHEE 34 48 44 52 39 52 / 60 50 60 50 20 20
OMAK 36 44 39 48 36 51 / 80 70 80 60 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 070427
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN AND WIND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RAIN CONTINUES. AROUND AN INCH HAS FALLEN IN THE
LOWLANDS WITH TWO TO FOUR IN THE MOUNTAINS. FAST RESPONDING RIVERS
ARE GOING TO FLOOD TONIGHT. WARNINGS ARE ALREADY OUT FOR THE
BOGACHIEL AND SKOKOMISH AND TOLT...WARNINGS FOR THE STILLAGUAMISH
AND POSSIBLY A FEW OTHERS ARE SOON TO FOLLOW. FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
00Z KUIL SOUNDING WAS 9700 FEET SO VIRTUALLY ALL PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE FOOT OR SNOW OF FRESH SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS IS RAPIDLY MELTING...ACCORDING TO NWAC DATA.
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS AND
CASCADES WILL FLOOD AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT LEWIS COUNTY RIVERS. MODELS TEND TO KEEP
THE RAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE CWA. HOWEVER THAT MAY
BE CUTTING IT A BIT TOO FINE AND IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO ADD LEWIS
COUNTY TO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
NO CHANGE TO THE GENERAL PATTERN AND FORECAST. CONVEYOR BELT RAIN
KEEPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS SATURDAY. BURKE
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MORE SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR MON
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OR WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THEN MON NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS TO GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
TO THE AREA. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AS
A 160-180 KT 300 MB JET PLOWS SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA AT FREQUENT
INTERVALS. AS A RESULT WILL BROAD BRUSH THE WORDED FORECAST. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BAND WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR UNTIL SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ONLY SPORADICALLY REACHED THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SURFACE GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED SOMEWHAT AND
PROFILER DATA SHOWS WINDS IN THE 2000 TO 5000 FOOT LAYER GRADUALLY
EASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
SERVE TO ENSURE THAT CEILINGS AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN POOR.
KSEA...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
MVFR...AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS. REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 8 TO 12
KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING HIGHER THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED SOMEWHAT...AND THE PREVIOUS SET OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPIRED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST.
WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AGAIN LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
COAST FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A NEW
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE
INLAND WATERS.
27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT
AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS
HARBOR BAR.
$$
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000
FXUS66 KPQR 070423
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
825 PM PST THU NOV 06 2008
.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL ZONE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SINKS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AD FRIDAY
MORNING AS NEXT WAVE MOVES TO VANCOUVER ISLAND BY MIDDAY. VERY MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND. TRAILING FRONTAL BAND
WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH SYSTEM WILL SPLIT SOME AS IT APPROACHES. COLD UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AREA ON MONDAY. STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF WET SYSTEMS EFFECTING THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PW AMS WITH SOLID WSW 850 MB FLOW OVER WESTERN WA
THIS EVE. SHORT WAVE IN GULF OF AK DEPRESSING ZONE A LITTLE S THIS
EVE. THIS WILL BRING SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES TO S WA COAST
EXTENDING TO NEAR KAST. STILL LIGHTER PRECIPITATION N COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES THIS EVE WILL INCREASE SOME AS ZONE GETS A LITTLE
CLOSER. NEXT FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 135 W MOVES TO VANCOUVER ISLAND BY
MIDDAY FRI. THIS WILL LIFT ZONE INTO NW WA. WITH SW ONSHORE STILL
OVER AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES NORTHERN
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WITH DRIZZLE LIKE PRECIPITATION N VALLEY. AS
ZONE LIFTS FURTHER N FRI AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COAST AND CASCADES WITH DRIER S FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TRAILING
FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRI THOUGH GFS AND NAM LOOK TOO FAST IN MOVING
SYSTEM IN. WITH WAVE JUST INTO BC BY LATE FRI EXPECT FRONT JUST TO BE
EFFECTING COAST BY 00Z SAT. EURO SLOWER THEN GFS/NAM AND WITH MAIN
UPPER TROUGH STILL OFFSHORE SLOWER LOOKS BETTER. TRAILING FRONT MOVES
INTO COASTAL AREA FRI EVE THEN ACROSS REST OF AREA FRI NIGHT. S PART
OF SYSTEM ALREADY WEAKENING AND BY THE TIME SYSTEM REACHES AREA S
PART OF AREA WILL BE ON EDGE OF PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE WILL ONLY GO
LIKELY POPS SE PART OF AREA. STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES COAST
LATE SAT. SYSTEM SPLITTING AS IT APPROACHES AS STRONG JET DIGS INTO
NORTHERN CA. STILL SOLID PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR ALL AREA HOWEVER
HEAVIEST WILL BE NEAR COAST AND S PART OF AREA. SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SAT EVE. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST OF SHOWERS WITH LIKELY POPS N
PART THROUGH SOME RAIN MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVE. COLD UPPER TROUGH
OVER AREA FOR SUN. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK AS BEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW
OVER S PART OF AREA.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOL WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN DISTURBANCE AFTER DISTURBANCE THROUGH
MID WEEK. ONE IS SET TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...
ANOTHER LATER TUESDAY...AND YET ANOTHER LATER WEDNESDAY. WITH RATHER
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA CARRYING EACH SYSTEM IN...SNOW LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY ABOVE PASS LEVELS. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY
APPRECIABLE BREAKS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. KEPT THE FORECAST WET WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. BROWN
&&
.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED N OF THE AREA...WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR INLAND...WITH POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR N OF A
KTTD TO KHIO LINE TIL MIDNIGHT. STILL POOR CONDITIONS ON THE
COAST...WITH IFR AND MVFR. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR DOMINATING BY 08Z AND REMAINING VFR THRU FRI.
IFR ON COAST BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR ON THE COAST BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z...WITH OCCASIONAL VFR ON S OF KTMK AFTER 12Z. ROCKEY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDERWAY AS S WINDS HAVE
NOW CUT INTO KPDX AREA. WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT AND FRI. HOWEVER...
WILL HAVE POCKETS OF IFR OR MVFR CLOUDS IN AND NEAR KPDX TIL 07Z.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS LIE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT...WITH COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD FRI
AND TIGHTEN GRADIENTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. SEEMS TO BE DECENT SUPPORT FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF FRI NIGHT.
WILL HOIST GALE WARNING FOR THAT TIME. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11
FT THROUGH FRI...THEN BUILDING A BIT MORE FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SAT. ON SUN...WILL SEE SWELL THAT
WAS GENERATED OVER THE N PAC ARRIVING. COULD TOP AT 18 TO 20 FT...
BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT BEFORE GETTING GRASP ON DETAIL.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN EFFECT FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH FRI.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH FRI.
GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FOR FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR LATE THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN MIDDAY FRI.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
Http://weather.gov/portland
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
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