[top]
000
FXUS63 KJKL 081959
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED
A STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LARGE
AREA OF STRATOCU WAS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...AND WILL BE MOVING
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE BKN TO OVC CU FIELD BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE. THE SC WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS WILL
DROP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. H8 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -5 DEG C ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
40S. THE MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLURRIES
OUT OF THE FORECAST. SNOW GROWTH REGION IS ALSO WELL ABOVE THE
MOISTURE LAYER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...ALLOWING FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED
THE MODELS START IN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTING TO MOVE OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. ON MONDAY WE START OUT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
ARKANSAS TO THE BLACK HILLS AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA. THE BIG
QUESTION ON THE EXTENDED IS THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW FROM OVER
THE GREAT BASIN TO THE GREAT PLAINS. ON TUESDAY...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW PRETTY MUCH SETS UP A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH PART OF THE
ENERGY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET EXTENDING AROUND THE LOW. AFTER TUESDAY...THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT START TO GROW. EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN IS THE
SAME...THE DEPTH AND POSITIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH THAT IT WILL WRECK HAVOC WITH THE FORECAST. THIS IS NOT TOO
UNCOMMON WHEN UPPER RIDGES ARE BEING ASSAULTED BY THE APPROACHING
TROUGHS. WITH THAT SAID...THE CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE GOING INTO AN
UNSETTLED PATTER IS HIGH...HOWEVER THE TIMING AND THE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST ARE FAIRLY LOW.
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS
GOING TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT SO
THAT PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH TO THE
WEST AND WILL HAVE SOME TOUGH GOING. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY
HAVE TWO FRONTS WHICH MERGE INTO ONE AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
WILL BRING WITH UP SOME MUCH COOLER AIR. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
NCEP FORECAST AND MOS FOR THE TEMPS. THESE TEMPS COULD BE QUITE A BIT
OFF DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW DEEP IT IS
WHEN IT PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/
A BKN CU FIELD HAS BEEN DEVELOPING WITH SOME COLD AIR ALOFT. CIGS
SHOULD STAY VFR THOUGH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET AS MIXING WINDS DOWN. AN EXTENSIVE SC LYR
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIGS WILL DROP
TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...WJM
[top]
000
FXUS63 KLMK 081953
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
252 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE CLOUD AREA OVER MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
SLOWLY TOWARD CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD AREA REMAINING OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY.
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER COULD SEE SOME GLIMPSES OF THE
SUN ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS THE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WITH THE COLDER AIR
AND CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE MID 40S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM MOS TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN SETS BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY NEXT
WEEK AS SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST. WILL BE WATCHING TWO
SYSTEMS OF INTEREST THROUGH THE PD. THE FIRST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
MAKER COMING THROUGH THE REGION BY THU/FRI.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FIRST PART OF THE PD WILL START OFF DRY AND COLD AS SFC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COLD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME LOW 20S...PERHAPS SOME
UPPER TEENS IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK AS SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE
COOL COMPARED TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME
HIGHS AROUND 50 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
WORK EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...INVERTED SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FCST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS TX AND THEN SLIP NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. P-TYPE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE AS
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AT ONSET IN THE FORM OF A
COLD RAIN AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.
FOR TUE-WED NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS WEAK SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS WE`RE GOING TO BE IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AND THE MODELS HAVE NEVER HAD GOOD LUCK IN THOSE SITUATIONS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z...06Z AND THE LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DECENT PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT QPF. THUS WILL
KEEP GOOD CHC POPS THROUGH THE PD. HIGHS TUE WILL BE KEPT DOWN WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WED WITH LOW 50S GIVEN THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS
MAJOR AMPLIFICATION IN THE MID LEVELS COMMENCE. DEEPENING H5 TROF
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND RESULT IN WEST GULF
CYCLOGENESIS WITH SFC LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE 12Z OP GFS AND ITS 12Z ENSEMBLES ARE MORE
AMPLIFIED IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THAN THE 00Z RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT.
OVERALL...THE 12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EURO RUN
FROM LAST NIGHT WITH A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TO THE SYSTEM.
SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE VERY DRY PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL KY COULD
PICK UP SOME BADLY NEEDED RAINFALL. FOR NOW HAVE...TRENDED POPS
CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
THE OP 12Z GFS SOLUTION SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...WHILE THE 00Z AND 12Z EURO RUNS ARE MUCH DRIER.
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE EURO
SOLN AT THIS TIME...SO WILL TREND THE FCST NEARER THE DRY SIDE FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL BE MILD FOR THU-FRI AS SFC LOW MOVES UP FROM THE
SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THU-FRI...BUT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
DRIER AIR REMAINED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BY 17Z THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WAS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA.
CLOUDS WITH BASES/CIGS AROUND 4 THSD FT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING OVER THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20
TO 13 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 23Z BUT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE MORE MOIST ARE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY AT KSDF
AND KLEX TAF SITES.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...SCHOLZ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....SCHOLZ
UPDATE.......SCHOLZ
[top]
000
FXUS63 KPAH 081900
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION...MEANS COLDER CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...AND COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND S/WV RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN BRIEFLY.
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE EVOLUTIONARY
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP
ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE CHANCE
CONTINUING OFF AND ON FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL THE
PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED BUT STABLE. SO WENT WITH MAINLY
RAIN...OR RAIN SHOWERS AND LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS SLOWER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT
AS OF THIS WRITING...THEY ARE MAKING PROGRESS. ALREADY SEEING OVC
SKIES AT KCGI...AND KPAH AND KEVV SHOULD BECOME OVC WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH KOWB OVC BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL CEILINGS
SHOULD BE VFR. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE CEILINGS
COULD DROP CLOSE TO MVFR AFTER 06Z. SHOULD SEE OVC SKIES THRU 18Z
SUNDAY...AFTER WHICH THEY WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT. WINDS WILL BE
WNW AT 5-10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON HRS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KPAH 081735
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEAR TERM. INTERVALS OF MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...MOST PROBABLE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL LESSEN ITS INFLUENCE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
SUNDAY...SO A TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON.
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD. BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
NATIONS MID SECTION...WITH TWO OR THREE WAVES OF MOISTURE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST. AS FAR AS A PREFERRED MODEL...GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE
NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED TO PREFER THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS SLOWER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT
AS OF THIS WRITING...THEY ARE MAKING PROGRESS. ALREADY SEEING OVC
SKIES AT KCGI...AND KPAH AND KEVV SHOULD BECOME OVC WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH KOWB OVC BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL CEILINGS
SHOULD BE VFR. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE CEILINGS
COULD DROP CLOSE TO MVFR AFTER 06Z. SHOULD SEE OVC SKIES THRU 18Z
SUNDAY...AFTER WHICH THEY WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT. WINDS WILL BE
WNW AT 5-10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON HRS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...CW
000
FXUS63 KLMK 081734
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1233 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AFD... PREVIOUS UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF OUR INDIANA COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURES HAS ADVANCED EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP
MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA AFTER 3 PM EST (OR 20Z). WILL
ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING COOL WEATHER UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDIEST TO
THE NORTH WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
IN THE SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S.
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE GRT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE NE OVER THE GRT LAKES THROUGH SUN. BY SUNDAY IT
WILL SHIFT MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH PULLING THE STRATIFORM
CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION. COLD CORE OF LOW WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA (FA) SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY TO GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. LATEST 0Z
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER ON THIS ONE WITH A SLOWER WETTER
SOLN. WILL STICK WITH THE 0Z GFS/0Z GEM WHICH OFFER SIMILAR SOLNS
IN A COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS...HOWEVER IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO PUSH PRECIP INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW.
QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN COLD RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MON-WED...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO FORECAST CHANGES FOR THURS/FRI AS MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT
STILL. MODELS SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THEIR 0Z RUNS AS THEY DID
THAN PREVIOUS 12Z RUNS. THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC LOW OVER ARKLATEX RE-ENERGIZING RAIN CHANCES FOR THURS/FRI.
0Z GEM HINTS AT A SIMILAR SOLN. ON THE OTHER HAND...0Z ECMWF OFFERS
A SOLN FOCUS MORE ON A TROUGH AND SFC LOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FLOW TO BE THE RAIN MAKER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
POPS AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STAY
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION (18TAFS)...
DRIER AIR REMAINED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BY 17Z THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WAS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA.
CLOUDS WITH BASES/CIGS AROUND 4 THSD FT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING OVER THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20
TO 13 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 23Z BUT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE MORE MOIST ARE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY AT KSDF
AND KLEX TAF SITES.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....SCHOLZ
UPDATE.......SCHOLZ
000
FXUS63 KJKL 081715
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1215 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/
AN SC LAYER HAS RETREATED SOME BACK TO THE NORTH...BUT CU HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SC MOVING IN LATER IN THE
DAY. THE WRF AND GFS IS OVERDOING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.
HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS FOR
TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TOWARD EVENING. WITH A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE...NUDGED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT CHANGE THE WORDING IN THE TEXT
FORECAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND TAMDAR DATA YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO UPPER 50S WITH A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. UPDATED FORECAST
PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL ON FRI AND FRI EVENING TO THE
REGION HAS PASSED EAST OF THE AREA AND IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SOME CLEARING WORKED INTO THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...SC AND AC DEVELOPED/MOVED BACK IN AND THE PRESS GRADIENT
AND BL WINDS INCREASED LEADING TO DISSIPATION OF THE FOG. DRIER AIR
HAS BEGUN TO WORK IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS IN THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY
THE SW. IN FACT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT LOZ...EKQ AND SME AND BASED
ON EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM SKY COVER FROM ON IR IMAGERY THIS
CLEARING WILL WORK NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA PRIOR TO
DAWN. AS THE CLEARING WORKS IN...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE QUICK TO
FOLLOW SO ATTM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO LK HURON AND ONTARIO
BY TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH LEADING TO LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. THE CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SW/VS MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND THEIR
AFFECT ON MAX AND MIN T AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CLOUDS OVER SW KY AND MUCH OF TN...EXTENSIVE SC COVERS MUCH
OF THE MO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN RH IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER AROUND/BY 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AND DEVELOP AND BE MOST
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION WITH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...STRONGEST ALOFT...WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVOR SOME SC DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...STAYED ON THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX T ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
TO POSSIBLY THIN OUT SOME IN THE 0Z TO 6Z OR 9Z PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO 12Z TO 15Z ON SUN AS
ONE OF THESE SW/VS WORKS BY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING MIN
T COULD FALL LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW
OPTED FOR A MORE UNIFORM LOW TEMPS...COLDEST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND THE FAR WEST WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE THE COLDEST BY 12Z SUN.
FOR BOTH TODAY...TONIGHT AND ON SUN...THE 0Z NAM/WRF APPEARED TO BE
COLDEST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND 21Z SREF...SO
OPTED TO GO A BIT WARMER THAN THESE NUMBERS FOR ALL THREE PERIODS.
850 MB TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO BE AT LEAST IN THE -4C TO -6C DEGREE
RANGE ON SUN AND WITH SC AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY SLOW TO DISSIPATE PER
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS HOLDING ONTO THE 925 MB TO 850 MB MOISTURE
OPTED TO GO TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE AND NEAR PERSISTENCE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SUN MAX T AND AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED MAX T WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH
ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART LATE ON SUN...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO RISE. THE CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
ON SUN NIGHT...AND SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION IN THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER...THOUGH NAM/WRF IS
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH HOLDING ON THE MOISTURE. THE SE COUNTIES NEAR
THE WV AND VA BORDERS WILL BE THE LATEST TO CLEAR. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN
AND THE BRIEF CLEARING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SOME OF TO ALL OF THE NIGHT AND A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...OF MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE SFC PATTERN AS WELL AS THE COOP MOS GUIDANCE. THE LEAST
UNCERTAINTY IN A SPLIT IS IN THE EAST DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
CLEARING.
MON WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND
A SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE US WEST COAST THAT WILL HAVE DUG
SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION LEADS TO SFC
LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS/RED RIVER
VALLEY. ATTM...ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN ANTICIPATED BY LATE
IN THE DAY ON MON...WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING OF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOOKS LIKE A WELCOMED WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MOST 00Z AND 06Z GLOBAL MODELS FROM THE 7TH AGREE ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. AFTER AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE ON MON...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT EXTENDS INTO KENTUCKY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH...AND
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EAST. THE ECMWF DOES DIFFER FROM OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS...DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER SOLUTION FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY...HOWEVER PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
NAEFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN A
SLOWER AND DEEPER H5 TROF OVER THE PLAINS THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WEAKER OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY...PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LATER THURSDAY. FOR POPS...WENT WITH CHANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THERE IS THE MOST AGREEMENT ON PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. DID
NOT GO LIKELY IN ANY ONE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS. WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST THIS AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER. FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF ENSEMBLE DATA AND HPC
GUIDANCE...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE SOUNDING PROFILES AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED
A BKN CU FIELD HAS BEEN DEVELOPING WITH SOME COLD AIR ALOFT. CIGS
SHOULD STAY VFR THOUGH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET AS MIXING WINDS DOWN. AN EXTENSIVE SC LYR
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIGS WILL DROP
TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM
LONG TERM....WJM
AVIATION...WJM
000
FXUS63 KLMK 081608
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1108 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF OUR INDIANA COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURES HAS ADVANCED EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP
MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA AFTER 3 PM EST (OR 20Z). WILL
ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING COOL WEATHER UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDIEST TO
THE NORTH WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
IN THE SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S.
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE GRT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE NE OVER THE GRT LAKES THROUGH SUN. BY SUNDAY IT
WILL SHIFT MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH PULLING THE STRATIFORM
CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION. COLD CORE OF LOW WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA (FA) SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY TO GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. LATEST 0Z
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER ON THIS ONE WITH A SLOWER WETTER
SOLN. WILL STICK WITH THE 0Z GFS/0Z GEM WHICH OFFER SIMILAR SOLNS
IN A COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS...HOWEVER IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO PUSH PRECIP INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW.
QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN COLD RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MON-WED...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO FORECAST CHANGES FOR THURS/FRI AS MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT
STILL. MODELS SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THEIR 0Z RUNS AS THEY DID
THAN PREVIOUS 12Z RUNS. THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC LOW OVER ARKLATEX RE-ENERGIZING RAIN CHANCES FOR THURS/FRI.
0Z GEM HINTS AT A SIMILAR SOLN. ON THE OTHER HAND...0Z ECMWF OFFERS
A SOLN FOCUS MORE ON A TROUGH AND SFC LOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FLOW TO BE THE RAIN MAKER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
POPS AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STAY
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
STRATUS DECK TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH PREVAILING
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. BWG IS LIKELY TO SEE
SOME BREAKS FROM THE CEILINGS DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT STRATUS DECK SHOULD WORK BACK INTO BWG AFTER THAT.
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 14Z...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15KTS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS TO OVER 20KTS. THESE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....MACZKO
UPDATE.......SCHOLZ
000
FXUS63 KJKL 081526
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1026 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED
AN SC LAYER HAS RETREATED SOME BACK TO THE NORTH...BUT CU HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SC MOVING IN LATER IN THE
DAY. THE WRF AND GFS IS OVERDOING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.
HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS FOR
TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TOWARD EVENING. WITH A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE...NUDGED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT CHANGE THE WORDING IN THE TEXT
FORECAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND TAMDAR DATA YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO UPPER 50S WITH A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. UPDATED FORECAST
PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL ON FRI AND FRI EVENING TO THE
REGION HAS PASSED EAST OF THE AREA AND IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SOME CLEARING WORKED INTO THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...SC AND AC DEVELOPED/MOVED BACK IN AND THE PRESS GRADIENT
AND BL WINDS INCREASED LEADING TO DISSIPATION OF THE FOG. DRIER AIR
HAS BEGUN TO WORK IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS IN THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY
THE SW. IN FACT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT LOZ...EKQ AND SME AND BASED
ON EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM SKY COVER FROM ON IR IMAGERY THIS
CLEARING WILL WORK NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA PRIOR TO
DAWN. AS THE CLEARING WORKS IN...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE QUICK TO
FOLLOW SO ATTM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO LK HURON AND ONTARIO
BY TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH LEADING TO LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. THE CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SW/VS MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND THEIR
AFFECT ON MAX AND MIN T AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CLOUDS OVER SW KY AND MUCH OF TN...EXTENSIVE SC COVERS MUCH
OF THE MO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN RH IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER AROUND/BY 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AND DEVELOP AND BE MOST
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION WITH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...STRONGEST ALOFT...WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVOR SOME SC DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...STAYED ON THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX T ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
TO POSSIBLY THIN OUT SOME IN THE 0Z TO 6Z OR 9Z PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO 12Z TO 15Z ON SUN AS
ONE OF THESE SW/VS WORKS BY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING MIN
T COULD FALL LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW
OPTED FOR A MORE UNIFORM LOW TEMPS...COLDEST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND THE FAR WEST WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE THE COLDEST BY 12Z SUN.
FOR BOTH TODAY...TONIGHT AND ON SUN...THE 0Z NAM/WRF APPEARED TO BE
COLDEST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND 21Z SREF...SO
OPTED TO GO A BIT WARMER THAN THESE NUMBERS FOR ALL THREE PERIODS.
850 MB TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO BE AT LEAST IN THE -4C TO -6C DEGREE
RANGE ON SUN AND WITH SC AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY SLOW TO DISSIPATE PER
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS HOLDING ONTO THE 925 MB TO 850 MB MOISTURE
OPTED TO GO TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE AND NEAR PERSISTENCE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SUN MAX T AND AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED MAX T WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH
ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART LATE ON SUN...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO RISE. THE CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
ON SUN NIGHT...AND SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION IN THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER...THOUGH NAM/WRF IS
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH HOLDING ON THE MOISTURE. THE SE COUNTIES NEAR
THE WV AND VA BORDERS WILL BE THE LATEST TO CLEAR. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN
AND THE BRIEF CLEARING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SOME OF TO ALL OF THE NIGHT AND A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...OF MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE SFC PATTERN AS WELL AS THE COOP MOS GUIDANCE. THE LEAST
UNCERTAINTY IN A SPLIT IS IN THE EAST DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
CLEARING.
MON WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND
A SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE US WEST COAST THAT WILL HAVE DUG
SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION LEADS TO SFC
LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS/RED RIVER
VALLEY. ATTM...ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN ANTICIPATED BY LATE
IN THE DAY ON MON...WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING OF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOOKS LIKE A WELCOMED WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MOST 00Z AND 06Z GLOBAL MODELS FROM THE 7TH AGREE ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. AFTER AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE ON MON...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT EXTENDS INTO KENTUCKY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH...AND
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EAST. THE ECMWF DOES DIFFER FROM OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS...DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER SOLUTION FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY...HOWEVER PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
NAEFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN A
SLOWER AND DEEPER H5 TROF OVER THE PLAINS THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WEAKER OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY...PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LATER THURSDAY. FOR POPS...WENT WITH CHANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THERE IS THE MOST AGREEMENT ON PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. DID
NOT GO LIKELY IN ANY ONE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS. WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST THIS AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER. FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF ENSEMBLE DATA AND HPC
GUIDANCE...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE SOUNDING PROFILES AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/
STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
SUN HAS RISEN...AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SPINS ITS WAY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z. LATEST SURFACE
OBS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...
WITH BASES BETWEEN 4 AND 6K...WILL PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM
LONG TERM....WJM
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS63 KJKL 081133
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL ON FRI AND FRI EVENING TO THE
REGION HAS PASSED EAST OF THE AREA AND IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SOME CLEARING WORKED INTO THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...SC AND AC DEVELOPED/MOVED BACK IN AND THE PRESS GRADIENT
AND BL WINDS INCREASED LEADING TO DISSIPATION OF THE FOG. DRIER AIR
HAS BEGUN TO WORK IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS IN THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY
THE SW. IN FACT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT LOZ...EKQ AND SME AND BASED
ON EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM SKY COVER FROM ON IR IMAGERY THIS
CLEARING WILL WORK NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA PRIOR TO
DAWN. AS THE CLEARING WORKS IN...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE QUICK TO
FOLLOW SO ATTM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO LK HURON AND ONTARIO
BY TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH LEADING TO LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. THE CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SW/VS MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND THEIR
AFFECT ON MAX AND MIN T AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CLOUDS OVER SW KY AND MUCH OF TN...EXTENSIVE SC COVERS MUCH
OF THE MO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN RH IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER AROUND/BY 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AND DEVELOP AND BE MOST
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION WITH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...STRONGEST ALOFT...WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVOR SOME SC DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...STAYED ON THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX T ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
TO POSSIBLY THIN OUT SOME IN THE 0Z TO 6Z OR 9Z PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO 12Z TO 15Z ON SUN AS
ONE OF THESE SW/VS WORKS BY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING MIN
T COULD FALL LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW
OPTED FOR A MORE UNIFORM LOW TEMPS...COLDEST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND THE FAR WEST WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE THE COLDEST BY 12Z SUN.
FOR BOTH TODAY...TONIGHT AND ON SUN...THE 0Z NAM/WRF APPEARED TO BE
COLDEST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND 21Z SREF...SO
OPTED TO GO A BIT WARMER THAN THESE NUMBERS FOR ALL THREE PERIODS.
850 MB TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO BE AT LEAST IN THE -4C TO -6C DEGREE
RANGE ON SUN AND WITH SC AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY SLOW TO DISSIPATE PER
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS HOLDING ONTO THE 925 MB TO 850 MB MOISTURE
OPTED TO GO TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE AND NEAR PERSISTENCE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SUN MAX T AND AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED MAX T WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH
ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART LATE ON SUN...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO RISE. THE CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
ON SUN NIGHT...AND SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION IN THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER...THOUGH NAM/WRF IS
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH HOLDING ON THE MOISTURE. THE SE COUNTIES NEAR
THE WV AND VA BORDERS WILL BE THE LATEST TO CLEAR. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN
AND THE BRIEF CLEARING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SOME OF TO ALL OF THE NIGHT AND A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...OF MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE SFC PATTERN AS WELL AS THE COOP MOS GUIDANCE. THE LEAST
UNCERTAINTY IN A SPLIT IS IN THE EAST DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
CLEARING.
MON WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND
A SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE US WEST COAST THAT WILL HAVE DUG
SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION LEADS TO SFC
LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS/RED RIVER
VALLEY. ATTM...ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN ANTICIPATED BY LATE
IN THE DAY ON MON...WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING OF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOOKS LIKE A WELCOMED WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MOST 00Z AND 06Z GLOBAL MODELS FROM THE 7TH AGREE ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. AFTER AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE ON MON...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT EXTENDS INTO KENTUCKY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH...AND
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EAST. THE ECMWF DOES DIFFER FROM OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS...DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER SOLUTION FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY...HOWEVER PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
NAEFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN A
SLOWER AND DEEPER H5 TROF OVER THE PLAINS THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WEAKER OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY...PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LATER THURSDAY. FOR POPS...WENT WITH CHANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THERE IS THE MOST AGREEMENT ON PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. DID
NOT GO LIKELY IN ANY ONE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS. WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST THIS AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER. FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF ENSEMBLE DATA AND HPC
GUIDANCE...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE SOUNDING PROFILES AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED
STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
SUN HAS RISEN...AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SPINS ITS WAY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z. LATEST SURFACE
OBS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...
WITH BASES BETWEEN 4 AND 6K...WILL PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....WJM
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS63 KPAH 081120
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008/
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEAR TERM. INTERVALS OF MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...MOST PROBABLE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL LESSEN ITS INFLUENCE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
SUNDAY...SO A TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON.
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD. BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
NATIONS MID SECTION...WITH TWO OR THREE WAVES OF MOISTURE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST. AS FAR AS A PREFERRED MODEL...GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE
NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED TO PREFER THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE CLOSED LOW EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD MIXING UP TO 4-5KFT BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS SUSTAINED WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT STRATOCU DECK MAY MIX OUT AND BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.....RJP
AVIATION...JAP
000
FXUS63 KLMK 081108
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING COOL WEATHER UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDIEST TO
THE NORTH WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
IN THE SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S.
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE GRT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE NE OVER THE GRT LAKES THROUGH SUN. BY SUNDAY IT
WILL SHIFT MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH PULLING THE STRATIFORM
CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION. COLD CORE OF LOW WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA (FA) SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY TO GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. LATEST 0Z
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER ON THIS ONE WITH A SLOWER WETTER
SOLN. WILL STICK WITH THE 0Z GFS/0Z GEM WHICH OFFER SIMILAR SOLNS
IN A COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS...HOWEVER IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO PUSH PRECIP INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW.
QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN COLD RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MON-WED...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO FORECAST CHANGES FOR THURS/FRI AS MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT
STILL. MODELS SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THEIR 0Z RUNS AS THEY DID
THAN PREVIOUS 12Z RUNS. THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC LOW OVER ARKLATEX RE-ENERGIZING RAIN CHANCES FOR THURS/FRI.
0Z GEM HINTS AT A SIMILAR SOLN. ON THE OTHER HAND...0Z ECMWF OFFERS
A SOLN FOCUS MORE ON A TROUGH AND SFC LOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FLOW TO BE THE RAIN MAKER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
POPS AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STAY
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
STRATUS DECK TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH PREVAILING
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. BWG IS LIKELY TO SEE
SOME BREAKS FROM THE CEILINGS DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT STRATUS DECK SHOULD WORK BACK INTO BWG AFTER THAT.
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 14Z...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15KTS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS TO OVER 20KTS. THESE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....MACZKO
000
FXUS63 KJKL 080821
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL ON FRI AND FRI EVENING TO THE
REGION HAS PASSED EAST OF THE AREA AND IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SOME CLEARING WORKED INTO THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...SC AND AC DEVELOPED/MOVED BACK IN AND THE PRESS GRADIENT
AND BL WINDS INCREASED LEADING TO DISSIPATION OF THE FOG. DRIER AIR
HAS BEGUN TO WORK IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS IN THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY
THE SW. IN FACT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT LOZ...EKQ AND SME AND BASED
ON EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM SKY COVER FROM ON IR IMAGERY THIS
CLEARING WILL WORK NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA PRIOR TO
DAWN. AS THE CLEARING WORKS IN...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE QUICK TO
FOLLOW SO ATTM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO LK HURON AND ONTARIO
BY TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH LEADING TO LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. THE CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SW/VS MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND THEIR
AFFECT ON MAX AND MIN T AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CLOUDS OVER SW KY AND MUCH OF TN...EXTENSIVE SC COVERS MUCH
OF THE MO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN RH IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER AROUND/BY 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AND DEVELOP AND BE MOST
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION WITH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...STRONGEST ALOFT...WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVOR SOME SC DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...STAYED ON THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX T ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
TO POSSIBLY THIN OUT SOME IN THE 0Z TO 6Z OR 9Z PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO 12Z TO 15Z ON SUN AS
ONE OF THESE SW/VS WORKS BY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING MIN
T COULD FALL LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW
OPTED FOR A MORE UNIFORM LOW TEMPS...COLDEST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND THE FAR WEST WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE THE COLDEST BY 12Z SUN.
FOR BOTH TODAY...TONIGHT AND ON SUN...THE 0Z NAM/WRF APPEARED TO BE
COLDEST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND 21Z SREF...SO
OPTED TO GO A BIT WARMER THAN THESE NUMBERS FOR ALL THREE PERIODS.
850 MB TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO BE AT LEAST IN THE -4C TO -6C DEGREE
RANGE ON SUN AND WITH SC AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY SLOW TO DISSIPATE PER
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS HOLDING ONTO THE 925 MB TO 850 MB MOISTURE
OPTED TO GO TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE AND NEAR PERSISTENCE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SUN MAX T AND AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED MAX T WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH
ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART LATE ON SUN...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO RISE. THE CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
ON SUN NIGHT...AND SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION IN THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER...THOUGH NAM/WRF IS
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH HOLDING ON THE MOISTURE. THE SE COUNTIES NEAR
THE WV AND VA BORDERS WILL BE THE LATEST TO CLEAR. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN
AND THE BRIEF CLEARING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SOME OF TO ALL OF THE NIGHT AND A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...OF MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE SFC PATTERN AS WELL AS THE COOP MOS GUIDANCE. THE LEAST
UNCERTAINTY IN A SPLIT IS IN THE EAST DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
CLEARING.
MON WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND
A SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE US WEST COAST THAT WILL HAVE DUG
SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION LEADS TO SFC
LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS/RED RIVER
VALLEY. ATTM...ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN ANTICIPATED BY LATE
IN THE DAY ON MON...WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING OF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOOKS LIKE A WELCOMED WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MOST 00Z AND 06Z GLOBAL MODELS FROM THE 7TH AGREE ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. AFTER AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE ON MON...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT EXTENDS INTO KENTUCKY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH...AND
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EAST. THE ECMWF DOES DIFFER FROM OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS...DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER SOLUTION FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY...HOWEVER PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
NAEFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN A
SLOWER AND DEEPER H5 TROF OVER THE PLAINS THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WEAKER OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY...PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LATER THURSDAY. FOR POPS...WENT WITH CHANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THERE IS THE MOST AGREEMENT ON PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. DID
NOT GO LIKELY IN ANY ONE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS. WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST THIS AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER. FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF ENSEMBLE DATA AND HPC
GUIDANCE...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE SOUNDING PROFILES AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 6Z
SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR AND INCREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CIGS OF 4-6K WILL PERSIST AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD...AS LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS OF 15-17 KTS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHENEVER THE SUN IS ABLE TO SHINE THROUGH ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. SOME FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED IN RIVER VALLEYS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG OCCURRING AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FOG WILL LIKELY REMAINED
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS...AND WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS63 KLMK 080809
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING COOL WEATHER UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDIEST TO
THE NORTH WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
IN THE SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S.
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE GRT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE NE OVER THE GRT LAKES THROUGH SUN. BY SUNDAY IT
WILL SHIFT MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH PULLING THE STRATIFORM
CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION. COLD CORE OF LOW WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA (FA) SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY TO GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. LATEST 0Z
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER ON THIS ONE WITH A SLOWER WETTER
SOLN. WILL STICK WITH THE 0Z GFS/0Z GEM WHICH OFFER SIMILAR SOLNS
IN A COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS...HOWEVER IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO PUSH PRECIP INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW.
QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN COLD RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MON-WED...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO FORECAST CHANGES FOR THURS/FRI AS MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT
STILL. MODELS SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THEIR 0Z RUNS AS THEY DID
THAN PREVIOUS 12Z RUNS. THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC LOW OVER ARKLATEX RE-ENERGIZING RAIN CHANCES FOR THURS/FRI.
0Z GEM HINTS AT A SIMILAR SOLN. ON THE OTHER HAND...0Z ECMWF OFFERS
A SOLN FOCUS MORE ON A TROUGH AND SFC LOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FLOW TO BE THE RAIN MAKER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
POPS AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STAY
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
A LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUD COVER TRENDS UPSTREAM HAVE SHOWN MORE
DISSIPATION THAN WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. HAD OVERCAST SKIES IN THE
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE AND HAVE BACKED OFF TO BROKEN FOR THIS
PACKAGE...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS ON THE LOW END OF VFR FOR THE MOST PART. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AT SDF AND LEX AT MVFR HEIGHTS BUT LOOKING
AT MODEL DATA PLUS UPSTREAM OBS IT APPEARS THAT ANY MVFR CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY SCATTERED RATHER THAN FORMING A LASTING CEILING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CLOUDS INTO MVFR AT SDF
AFTER FH18 AS MODELS DO INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD BASE BY
THEN.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND OUT OF
THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY
BEFORE LESSENING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....13
000
FXUS63 KPAH 080620
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1220 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEAR TERM. INTERVALS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS
LOW WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME...MOST PROBABLE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LESSEN ITS INFLUENCE AS WE HEAD THROUGH SUNDAY...SO A TREND
TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD. BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
NATIONS MID SECTION...WITH TWO OR THREE WAVES OF MOISTURE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST. AS FAR AS A PREFERRED MODEL...GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE
NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED TO PREFER THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE CLOSED LOW EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWATH OF 5-6KFT CLOUDS HAS
CLEARED MOST OF THE AREA...WITH KEVV AND KOWB TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. GUIDANCE NOW QUITE CLEAR...WITH SUPPORT OF SATELLITE
TRENDS...IN A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD MIXING UP TO 4-5KFT BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS SUSTAINED WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BIGGER QUESTION IS WHEN TO BRING IN BROKEN 4-5KFT STRATOCU DECK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CEILING
CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SOONER IT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH AND WEST WILL LIKELY SEE THESE
CLOUDS ROTATE IN DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. MET/NAM GUIDANCE EVEN HINTING AT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS SATURDAY EVENING AT KEVV. WILL
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KJKL 080539
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1239 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK EASTWARD ACROSS FAR EAST KENTUCKY AND
BASED ON RADAR... THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. CLOUDS QUICKLY BREAK UP SHORTLY AFTER THE RAINFALL
ENDS BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY SO EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR
AREA LATER TONIGHT. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER.
ALL OF THIS IS COVERED PRETTY WELL IN INHERITED FORECAST BUT WILL
TIGHTEN UP THE POP AND SKY COVER GRADIENT AND MAKE SOME TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO...
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AREA HAVE COOLED OFF QUICKLY WITH
THE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS THERE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE
SHORTLY THOUGH KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO LOW. ONE LAST
ALTERATION WILL BE TO ADD A LITTLE PATCHY FOG TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS INEVITABLY GO CALM IN THOSE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT ALONG ONCE
FINALIZED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...
/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD H5
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOISTURE AT H8 AND
BELOW. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP FROM
DEVELOPING. WITH LITTLE OR NO OMEGA...AND THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WELL
ABOVE THE MOISTURE LAYER...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE H5 TROF PULLING OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN TO -6. HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOOKS LIKE A WELCOMED WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MOST 00Z AND 06Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...AND
IT/S ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS INTO KENTUCKY. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH...AND THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EAST. THE ECMWF DOES
DIFFER FROM OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
DRIER SOLUTION FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...HOWEVER PREFERRED TO STAY
CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN A SLOWER AND DEEPER H5 TROF OVER THE
PLAINS THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
KENTUCKY...PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THURSDAY. FOR
POPS...WENT WITH CHANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THERE IS THE MOST AGREEMENT ON PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. DID
NOT GO LIKELY IN ANY ONE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS. WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST THIS AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER. FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF ENSEMBLE DATA AND HPC
GUIDANCE...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE SOUNDING PROFILES AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 6Z
SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR AND INCREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CIGS OF 4-6K WILL PERSIST AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD...AS LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS OF 15-17 KTS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHENEVER THE SUN IS ABLE TO SHINE THROUGH ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. SOME FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED IN RIVER VALLEYS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG OCCURRING AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FOG WILL LIKELY REMAINED
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS...AND WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WJM/ABE
LONG TERM....WJM
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS63 KPAH 080525 AAB
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1125 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 120 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008/
LARGE CLOSED LOW WAS SITUATED OVER IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WAS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOOKING NW INTO MISSOURI...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OBSERVED MOVING
ESE. THESE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND HAVE BEEN
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE FORECAST. CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CLOUDS ROTATING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER THAN RECENT
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME. WEAK S/WV RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER
SUNDAY...WITH THE TRANSITION PERIOD SHORT.
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD. BROAD MID LEVEL TROFINESS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...WITH TWO OR THREE WAVES OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.
AS FAR AS A PREFERED MODEL...SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE MEAN
TROF ACROSS THE MID CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF OPS MODEL SEEMS A BIT
TOO ERRACTIC IN ITS RUN TO RUN DEPICTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE CLOSED LOW EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWATH OF 5-6KFT CLOUDS HAS
CLEARED MOST OF THE AREA...WITH KEVV AND KOWB TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. GUIDANCE NOW QUITE CLEAR...WITH SUPPORT OF SATELLITE
TRENDS...IN A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD MIXING UP TO 4-5KFT BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS SUSTAINED WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BIGGER QUESTION IS WHEN TO BRING IN BROKEN 4-5KFT STRATOCU DECK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CEILING
CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SOONER IT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH AND WEST WILL LIKELY SEE THESE
CLOUDS ROTATE IN DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. MET/NAM GUIDANCE EVEN HINTING AT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS SATURDAY EVENING AT KEVV. WILL
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
CN/DRS
000
FXUS63 KLMK 080503
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1203 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE WIND GUSTS FROM THE ZONES. ALSO
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE GRIDS TO ILLUSTRATE CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY GETTING OVERTAKEN BY CLOUDS ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FINALLY...RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE NEARLY ENDED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. THE CLEARING LINE
HAS JUST MADE IT TO A BEDFORD TO BARDSTOWN TO TOMPKINSVILLE LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE
CLOUDS FROM THE TRAILING UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WNW. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. TEMPS UNDER THE
CLOUDS OVER THE BLUEGRASS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 50S...BUT TEMPS IN
THE SUNSHINE HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 60S. WILL END POPS
BEFORE 00Z TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW...WITH LOW STRATUS MORE
THAN LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE
WINDS WILL HELP FROM KEEPING THE TEMPS PLUMMET TOO LOW.
HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE THE LOWEST THERE.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BLANKET ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH MORE FILTERED SUNSHINE SOUTH AND OVERCAST SKIES
NORTH. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AND
PERHAPS HIGHER. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON TEMPS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THE WILL DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC UPPER
AIR FLOW AROUND A LARGE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THIS GYRE WILL TEND TO REINFORCE A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATO-CU THAT
THREATENS TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES (AT LEAST ACROSS INDIANA) FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. AS IS COMMON WITH THESE DECAYING CLOSED LOWS...THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ABRUPT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY AT TIMES ACROSS TENNESSEE.
ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING...REINFORCING THE COOL
AIR IN PLACE AND PUSHING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATO-CU CLOUD
SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS TENNESSEE. ASSUMING CLOUDY
SKIES...SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NAM IS ESPECIALLY COLD...BRINGING 925MB TEMPS DOWN
TO -2C AT 18Z SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE QUITE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTH.
MONDAY LIKELY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AT LEAST AS FAR
AS SUN GOES. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT LATE SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY MONDAY...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT BY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN SUFFICIENT CLEARING...EARLY MONDAY MAY BECOME
THE COOLEST MORNING YET THIS FALL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME MONDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS ARE IN INITIAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE BY THURSDAY.
A SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST TUESDAY...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC SLOWING AND SPLITTING. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET THEN
DIVES SOUTH OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH THIS SOUTHERN JET BECOMING ESTABLISHED
ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...SEVERAL HARD-TO-TIME SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA.
THE FIRST...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW....WILL LIKELY BRING OVERRUNNING RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GULF STATES WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY THURSDAY. THE PREFERRED
GFS SHOWS A NEW WAVE FORMING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT THEN TRACKS THE WAVE
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SPREADING RAIN BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW LATE THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ELIMINATES ANY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
FOR THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION AND
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
A LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUD COVER TRENDS UPSTREAM HAVE SHOWN MORE
DISSIPATION THAN WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. HAD OVERCAST SKIES IN THE
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE AND HAVE BACKED OFF TO BROKEN FOR THIS
PACKAGE...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS ON THE LOW END OF VFR FOR THE MOST PART. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AT SDF AND LEX AT MVFR HEIGHTS BUT LOOKING
AT MODEL DATA PLUS UPSTREAM OBS IT APPEARS THAT ANY MVFR CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY SCATTERED RATHER THAN FORMING A LASTING CEILING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CLOUDS INTO MVFR AT SDF
AFTER FH18 AS MODELS DO INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD BASE BY
THEN.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND OUT OF
THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY
BEFORE LESSENING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....13
000
FXUS63 KJKL 080255
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
955 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK EASTWARD ACROSS FAR EAST KENTUCKY AND
BASED ON RADAR... THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. CLOUDS QUICKLY BREAK UP SHORTLY AFTER THE RAINFALL
ENDS BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY SO EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR
AREA LATER TONIGHT. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER.
ALL OF THIS IS COVERED PRETTY WELL IN INHERITED FORECAST BUT WILL
TIGHTEN UP THE POP AND SKY COVER GRADIENT AND MAKE SOME TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO...
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AREA HAVE COOLED OFF QUICKLY WITH
THE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS THERE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE
SHORTLY THOUGH KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO LOW. ONE LAST
ALTERATION WILL BE TO ADD A LITTLE PATCHY FOG TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS INEVITABLY GO CALM IN THOSE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT ALONG ONCE
FINALIZED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...
/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD H5
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOISTURE AT H8 AND
BELOW. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP FROM
DEVELOPING. WITH LITTLE OR NO OMEGA...AND THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WELL
ABOVE THE MOISTURE LAYER...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE H5 TROF PULLING OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN TO -6. HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOOKS LIKE A WELCOMED WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MOST 00Z AND 06Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...AND
IT/S ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS INTO KENTUCKY. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH...AND THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EAST. THE ECMWF DOES
DIFFER FROM OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
DRIER SOLUTION FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...HOWEVER PREFERRED TO STAY
CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN A SLOWER AND DEEPER H5 TROF OVER THE
PLAINS THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
KENTUCKY...PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THURSDAY. FOR
POPS...WENT WITH CHANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THERE IS THE MOST AGREEMENT ON PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. DID
NOT GO LIKELY IN ANY ONE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS. WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST THIS AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER. FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF ENSEMBLE DATA AND HPC
GUIDANCE...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE SOUNDING PROFILES AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/
THE MATURE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
ENDING THE LOW CIGS...VIS...AND LIGHT RAINS THERE. IT WILL CLEAR THE
REST OF THE AREA BY 10 AM EDT WITH ITS RAINS COMING TO AN END SHORTLY
THERE AFTER. LEFT OVER LOW CIGS AND VIS AT JKL WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AFFECTING THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS PERIOD WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DECK OF
STRATUS AT BETWEEN 4 AND 6K FEET PUSH OVER EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
WEST. THESE CLOUDS...GENERALLY AT THAT LEVEL...WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAIRLY STEADY AT NEAR 10 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...IN THE NEAR TERM DURING THE CLEAR
PATCH FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL BE MORE
VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WJM/ABE
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...GREIF
000
FXUS63 KJKL 080045 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AT 2 PM A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN MICHIGAN TO JUST WEST OF SDF TO MISSISSIPPI. MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST BEGINNING AT 00Z...WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST. ALL
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
CONSIDERED MENTIONING PATCHY FOG...BUT WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING OFF
AFTER FROPA...AND A LITTLE MIXING...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD DECREASE AFTER FROPA...THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME SC IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD H5 TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MOISTURE AT H8 AND BELOW. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING. WITH LITTLE OR NO
OMEGA...AND THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WELL ABOVE THE MOISTURE
LAYER...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
H5 TROF PULLING OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH H8 TEMPS
DOWN TO -6. HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOOKS LIKE A WELCOMED WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MOST 00Z AND 06Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...AND
IT/S ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS INTO KENTUCKY. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH...AND THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EAST. THE ECMWF DOES
DIFFER FROM OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
DRIER SOLUTION FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...HOWEVER PREFERRED TO STAY
CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN A SLOWER AND DEEPER H5 TROF OVER THE
PLAINS THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
KENTUCKY...PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THURSDAY. FOR
POPS...WENT WITH CHANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THERE IS THE MOST AGREEMENT ON PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. DID
NOT GO LIKELY IN ANY ONE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS. WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST THIS AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER. FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF ENSEMBLE DATA AND HPC
GUIDANCE...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE SOUNDING PROFILES AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED
THE MATURE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
ENDING THE LOW CIGS...VIS...AND LIGHT RAINS THERE. IT WILL CLEAR THE
REST OF THE AREA BY 10 AM EDT WITH ITS RAINS COMING TO AN END SHORTLY
THERE AFTER. LEFT OVER LOW CIGS AND VIS AT JKL WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AFFECTING THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS PERIOD WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DECK OF
STRATUS AT BETWEEN 4 AND 6K FEET PUSH OVER EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
WEST. THESE CLOUDS...GENERALLY AT THAT LEVEL...WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAIRLY STEADY AT NEAR 10 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...IN THE NEAR TERM DURING THE CLEAR
PATCH FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL BE MORE
VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM....WJM
AVIATION...GREIF
000
FXUS63 KPAH 072353 AAA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
552 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 120 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008/
LARGE CLOSED LOW WAS SITUATED OVER IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WAS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOOKING NW INTO MISSOURI...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OBSERVED MOVING
ESE. THESE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND HAVE BEEN
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE FORECAST. CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CLOUDS ROTATING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER THAN RECENT
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME. WEAK S/WV RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER
SUNDAY...WITH THE TRANSITION PERIOD SHORT.
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD. BROAD MID LEVEL TROFINESS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...WITH TWO OR THREE WAVES OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.
AS FAR AS A PREFERED MODEL...SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE MEAN
TROF ACROSS THE MID CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF OPS MODEL SEEMS A BIT
TOO ERRACTIC IN ITS RUN TO RUN DEPICTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
4-7KFT CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND CLOSED LOW OVER IOWA WILL BE MAIN
CONCERN FOR AVIATION...AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IFFY ON PERSISTENCE
OF BROKEN CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
HOLES DEVELOPING. SO VFR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM SCATTERED TO
BROKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. FAR EASTERN AREAS
WILL SEE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE MORE.
THE GFS IS PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH A SIGNAL FOR CEILINGS AROUND
4KFT THROUGHOUT THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AND LASTING
AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...SO RAN WITH IT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WAFFLE FROM WSW TO WNW AT 5-8KT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE MORE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z
SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 17 OR 18KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
CN/DRS
000
FXUS63 KLMK 072345
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE WIND GUSTS FROM THE ZONES. ALSO
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE GRIDS TO ILLUSTRATE CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY GETTING OVERTAKEN BY CLOUDS ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FINALLY...RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE NEARLY ENDED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. THE CLEARING LINE
HAS JUST MADE IT TO A BEDFORD TO BARDSTOWN TO TOMPKINSVILLE LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE
CLOUDS FROM THE TRAILING UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WNW. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. TEMPS UNDER THE
CLOUDS OVER THE BLUEGRASS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 50S...BUT TEMPS IN
THE SUNSHINE HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 60S. WILL END POPS
BEFORE 00Z TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW...WITH LOW STRATUS MORE
THAN LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE
WINDS WILL HELP FROM KEEPING THE TEMPS PLUMMET TOO LOW.
HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE THE LOWEST THERE.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BLANKET ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH MORE FILTERED SUNSHINE SOUTH AND OVERCAST SKIES
NORTH. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AND
PERHAPS HIGHER. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON TEMPS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THE WILL DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC UPPER
AIR FLOW AROUND A LARGE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THIS GYRE WILL TEND TO REINFORCE A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATO-CU THAT
THREATENS TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES (AT LEAST ACROSS INDIANA) FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. AS IS COMMON WITH THESE DECAYING CLOSED LOWS...THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ABRUPT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY AT TIMES ACROSS TENNESSEE.
ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING...REINFORCING THE COOL
AIR IN PLACE AND PUSHING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATO-CU CLOUD
SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS TENNESSEE. ASSUMING CLOUDY
SKIES...SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NAM IS ESPECIALLY COLD...BRINGING 925MB TEMPS DOWN
TO -2C AT 18Z SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE QUITE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTH.
MONDAY LIKELY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AT LEAST AS FAR
AS SUN GOES. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT LATE SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY MONDAY...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT BY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN SUFFICIENT CLEARING...EARLY MONDAY MAY BECOME
THE COOLEST MORNING YET THIS FALL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME MONDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS ARE IN INITIAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE BY THURSDAY.
A SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST TUESDAY...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC SLOWING AND SPLITTING. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET THEN
DIVES SOUTH OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH THIS SOUTHERN JET BECOMING ESTABLISHED
ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...SEVERAL HARD-TO-TIME SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA.
THE FIRST...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW....WILL LIKELY BRING OVERRUNNING RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GULF STATES WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY THURSDAY. THE PREFERRED
GFS SHOWS A NEW WAVE FORMING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT THEN TRACKS THE WAVE
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SPREADING RAIN BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW LATE THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ELIMINATES ANY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
FOR THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION AND
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...
ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN THE CLEAR
SKIES OF A DRY SLOT. HOWEVER A LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EDGE
SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CONDITIONS
ON THE LOW END OF VFR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AT SDF AND LEX AT MVFR HEIGHTS BUT LOOKING AT MODEL
DATA PLUS UPSTREAM OBS IT APPEARS THAT ANY MVFR CLOUDS MAY STAY
SCATTERED RATHER THAN FORMING A LASTING CEILING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CLOUDS INTO MVFR AT SDF AFTER FH24 AS
MODELS DO INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD BASE BY THEN.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND OUT OF
THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....13
000
FXUS63 KLMK 072320
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
620 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FINALLY...RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE NEARLY ENDED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. THE CLEARING LINE
HAS JUST MADE IT TO A BEDFORD TO BARDSTOWN TO TOMPKINSVILLE LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE
CLOUDS FROM THE TRAILING UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WNW. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. TEMPS UNDER THE
CLOUDS OVER THE BLUEGRASS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 50S...BUT TEMPS IN
THE SUNSHINE HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 60S. WILL END POPS
BEFORE 00Z TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW...WITH LOW STRATUS MORE
THAN LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE
WINDS WILL HELP FROM KEEPING THE TEMPS PLUMMET TOO LOW.
HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE THE LOWEST THERE.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BLANKET ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH MORE FILTERED SUNSHINE SOUTH AND OVERCAST SKIES
NORTH. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AND
PERHAPS HIGHER. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON TEMPS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THE WILL DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC UPPER
AIR FLOW AROUND A LARGE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THIS GYRE WILL TEND TO REINFORCE A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATO-CU THAT
THREATENS TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES (AT LEAST ACROSS INDIANA) FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. AS IS COMMON WITH THESE DECAYING CLOSED LOWS...THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ABRUPT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY AT TIMES ACROSS TENNESSEE.
ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING...REINFORCING THE COOL
AIR IN PLACE AND PUSHING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATO-CU CLOUD
SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS TENNESSEE. ASSUMING CLOUDY
SKIES...SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NAM IS ESPECIALLY COLD...BRINGING 925MB TEMPS DOWN
TO -2C AT 18Z SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE QUITE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTH.
MONDAY LIKELY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AT LEAST AS FAR
AS SUN GOES. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT LATE SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY MONDAY...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT BY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN SUFFICIENT CLEARING...EARLY MONDAY MAY BECOME
THE COOLEST MORNING YET THIS FALL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME MONDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS ARE IN INITIAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE BY THURSDAY.
A SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST TUESDAY...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC SLOWING AND SPLITTING. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET THEN
DIVES SOUTH OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH THIS SOUTHERN JET BECOMING ESTABLISHED
ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...SEVERAL HARD-TO-TIME SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA.
THE FIRST...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW....WILL LIKELY BRING OVERRUNNING RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GULF STATES WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY THURSDAY. THE PREFERRED
GFS SHOWS A NEW WAVE FORMING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT THEN TRACKS THE WAVE
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SPREADING RAIN BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW LATE THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ELIMINATES ANY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
FOR THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION AND
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...
ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN THE CLEAR
SKIES OF A DRY SLOT. HOWEVER A LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EDGE
SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CONDITIONS
ON THE LOW END OF VFR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AT SDF AND LEX AT MVFR HEIGHTS BUT LOOKING AT MODEL
DATA PLUS UPSTREAM OBS IT APPEARS THAT ANY MVFR CLOUDS MAY STAY
SCATTERED RATHER THAN FORMING A LASTING CEILING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CLOUDS INTO MVFR AT SDF AFTER FH24 AS
MODELS DO INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD BASE BY THEN.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND OUT OF
THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....13
000
FXUS63 KLMK 072001
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FINALLY...RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE NEARLY ENDED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. THE CLEARING LINE
HAS JUST MADE IT TO A BEDFORD TO BARDSTOWN TO TOMPKINSVILLE LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE
CLOUDS FROM THE TRAILING UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WNW. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. TEMPS UNDER THE
CLOUDS OVER THE BLUEGRASS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 50S...BUT TEMPS IN
THE SUNSHINE HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 60S. WILL END POPS
BEFORE 00Z TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW...WITH LOW STRATUS MORE
THAN LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE
WINDS WILL HELP FROM KEEPING THE TEMPS PLUMMET TOO LOW.
HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE THE LOWEST THERE.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BLANKET ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH MORE FILTERED SUNSHINE SOUTH AND OVERCAST SKIES
NORTH. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AND
PERHAPS HIGHER. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON TEMPS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THE WILL DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC UPPER
AIR FLOW AROUND A LARGE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THIS GYRE WILL TEND TO REINFORCE A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATO-CU THAT
THREATENS TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES (AT LEAST ACROSS INDIANA) FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. AS IS COMMON WITH THESE DECAYING CLOSED LOWS...THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ABRUPT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY AT TIMES ACROSS TENNESSEE.
ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING...REINFORCING THE COOL
AIR IN PLACE AND PUSHING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATO-CU CLOUD
SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS TENNESSEE. ASSUMING CLOUDY
SKIES...SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NAM IS ESPECIALLY COLD...BRINGING 925MB TEMPS DOWN
TO -2C AT 18Z SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE QUITE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTH.
MONDAY LIKELY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AT LEAST AS FAR
AS SUN GOES. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT LATE SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY MONDAY...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT BY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN SUFFICIENT CLEARING...EARLY MONDAY MAY BECOME
THE COOLEST MORNING YET THIS FALL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME MONDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS ARE IN INITIAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE BY THURSDAY.
A SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST TUESDAY...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC SLOWING AND SPLITTING. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET THEN
DIVES SOUTH OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH THIS SOUTHERN JET BECOMING ESTABLISHED
ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...SEVERAL HARD-TO-TIME SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA.
THE FIRST...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW....WILL LIKELY BRING OVERRUNNING RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GULF STATES WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY THURSDAY. THE PREFERRED
GFS SHOWS A NEW WAVE FORMING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT THEN TRACKS THE WAVE
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SPREADING RAIN BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW LATE THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ELIMINATES ANY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
FOR THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION AND
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
SHRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEX TERMINAL
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE MVFR-IFR CIGS AT LEX OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS ROUGHLY...AND
PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE
WEST...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE WSW AT ABOUT 12-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. THESE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY ONLY
AFFECT SDF AND BWG...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 19Z.
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT SDF
AND LEX MAINLY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. BWG MAY ESCAPE THE MVFR CIGS...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE A 4KFT CLOUD DECK. SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY A
LITTLE BREEZY UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
CLOUDY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....AL
000
FXUS63 KJKL 071958
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
258 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED
AT 2 PM A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN MICHIGAN TO JUST WEST OF SDF TO MISSISSIPPI. MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST BEGINNING AT 00Z...WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST. ALL
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
CONSIDERED MENTIONING PATCHY FOG...BUT WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING OFF
AFTER FROPA...AND A LITTLE MIXING...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD DECREASE AFTER FROPA...THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME SC IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD H5 TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MOISTURE AT H8 AND BELOW. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING. WITH LITTLE OR NO
OMEGA...AND THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WELL ABOVE THE MOISTURE
LAYER...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
H5 TROF PULLING OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH H8 TEMPS
DOWN TO -6. HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED
LOOKS LIKE A WELCOMED WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MOST 00Z AND 06Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...AND
IT/S ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS INTO KENTUCKY. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH...AND THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EAST. THE ECMWF DOES
DIFFER FROM OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
DRIER SOLUTION FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...HOWEVER PREFERRED TO STAY
CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN A SLOWER AND DEEPER H5 TROF OVER THE
PLAINS THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
KENTUCKY...PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THURSDAY. FOR
POPS...WENT WITH CHANCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THERE IS THE MOST AGREEMENT ON PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. DID
NOT GO LIKELY IN ANY ONE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS. WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST THIS AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER. FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF ENSEMBLE DATA AND HPC
GUIDANCE...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE SOUNDING PROFILES AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/
COLD FRONT HAS STARTED ITS PUSH EASTWARD AND RAIN WILL MAKE A QUICK
EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT RAIN TO END AT
KSME AND KLOZ BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND KJKL SHOULD END RAINFALL
AROUND SUNSET. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AFTER PRECIPITATION
PASSES AS UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A DECK OF STRATUS AROUND 700 TO 800 FEET.
WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE MVFR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AT
ALL TAF SITES. VALLEYS SHOULD FOG PRETTY EASILY WITH A MOIST GROUND
AND DECOUPLING OF LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL SCATTER THE CIGS OUT TONIGHT
AS DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN
ABOUT LOW CIGS WITH ANY POST FRONTAL SCENARIO SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE RETURNS AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY WITH
CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR FORECAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER
000
FXUS63 KPAH 071920
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
120 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE CLOSED LOW WAS SITUATED OVER IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WAS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOOKING NW INTO MISSOURI...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OBSERVED MOVING
ESE. THESE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND HAVE BEEN ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE FORECAST. CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CLOUDS ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER THAN RECENT CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WEAK S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER SUNDAY...WITH THE TRANSITION
PERIOD SHORT.
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD. BROAD MID LEVEL TROFINESS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...WITH TWO OR THREE WAVES OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.
AS FAR AS A PREFERED MODEL...SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE MEAN
TROF ACROSS THE MID CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF OPS MODEL SEEMS A BIT
TOO ERRACTIC IN ITS RUN TO RUN DEPICTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOTS OF CAA ON BRISK AND GUSTY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO
KEEP TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE WRN PART OF THE PAH FCST AREA
TODAY AS A WIND SHIFT PROPAGATES EWD. IN FACT...SUBSTANTIAL SWRLY
FLOW DEEP THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. VFR
CLOUDINESS IN CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. WINDS WILL
STAY UP OVERNIGHT...AND ANOTHER SFC WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A WRLY DIR
IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SAT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
CN/DB
000
FXUS63 KPAH 071804
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1204 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
AFTN AVN DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...
LOTS OF CAA ON BRISK AND GUSTY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO
KEEP TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE WRN PART OF THE PAH FCST AREA
TODAY AS A WIND SHIFT PROPAGATES EWD. IN FACT...SUBSTANTIAL SWRLY
FLOW DEEP THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. VFR
CLOUDINESS IN CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. WINDS WILL
STAY UP OVERNIGHT...AND ANOTHER SFC WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A WRLY DIR
IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SAT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008/
DISCUSSION...
06Z HPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT THRU THE PAH FA WITH
NEARLY ALL PCPN TOO. CLEARING IS A LITTLE SLOWER AS THE PARENT LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN AREA. THIS LOW
WILL SPIN INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN ITS CLOUDS
AND COOLER AIR WITH IT. BEST COLD ADVECTION OCCURS SAT AND THIS
AIRMASS STAYS OVERTOP LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SUN...WHEN LOW SHIFTS
EAST AND SOME RETURN FLOW ALLOWS LOWER TROP TEMPS TO WARM AGAIN.
MODIFYING COLD AIR MASS LATER SUN-MON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
SOUPING UP/RETURN RAIN CHANCE LATER MON-WED. THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS WELL ATTENDED AND REQUIRED LITTLE MORE THAN MINOR
TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEWEST DATA.
TEMPS WERE BLEND OF MOS INTO COLLAB PIC WITH PERHAPS THE NOTED
TREND OF ALL MOS A SHAVE COOLER THIS WEEKEND. NAM APPEARS TO HAVE
HANDLE ON SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION/CLEAR OUT AND LIKEWISE ITS
BLAYER TEMPS WERE MORE IN SYNC WITH THE ONGOING THERMAL PROFILE SO
IF WE LEANED ANY DIRECTION IT WAS TOWARD NAM BASED MET MOS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KJKL 071747 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1247 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
JUDGING BY SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY FRONT HAS STARTED TO MAKE ITS
EASTWARD PUSH AFTER A BRIEF RETROGRADE THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL JET WORKING INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
MODERATE INTENSITY SHOWERS UP INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD HELP QPF VALUES AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH NOT A
DROUGHT BREAKER...CERTAINLY A BENEFIT TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST TO CATEGORICAL AND MAINTAINED POPS IN THE
CENTRAL AND WEST. LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...DO NOT BELIEVE AREAS SUCH AS SOMERSET...CLAY CITY AND
FLEMINGSBURG WILL GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S TODAY. UPDATED ZFP OUT
SHORTLY.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING A TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS TO APPROACH/MOVE INTO THE MS AND VALLEYS. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN
ADVANCE OF IT. CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY OBSERVED THE
AREA WITH 50S AND 60S ON AVERAGE BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 75 AND
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDORS...THOUGH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE EAST
WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THESE COLDER LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
QUICK MODERATION AROUND SUNRISE.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST WITH A SW/V ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT LATER TODAY.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LIFT IN THE MID
LEVELS CENTERED AROUND 18Z. WITH PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH OR
MORE...THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF VALUES OF RECENT MODEL RUNS AND NOW
SHOWING UP IN THE 3Z SREF ARE SIGNIFICANT AND ARE AT LEAST DEPICTING
A TREND. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION TOWARD HIGHER QPF
AND STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS LOWER THAN THE 0Z GFS
AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/WRF. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS MUCAPES
OF GREATER THAN 100 J/KG...BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL AND LAPSE
RATES ARE GENERALLY MARGINAL AS WELL. ANY THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE
SFC BASED. WITH THE REGION IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AND FOR
CONTINUITY KEPT IN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER. AS FOR POPS
WENT WITH CAT WEST OF THE US HWY 23 CORRIDOR FOR TODAY...WHICH WAS IN
LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH THE 0Z GFS AS
WELL AS THE 0Z AND 6Z NAM/WRF ARE SLOWER TO BRING IN PRECIP IN THE
EAST LIKELY DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS INITIALLY AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WITH
A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. BROUGHT IN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE BIG
SANDY VALLEY/MUCH OF THE VA BORDER AREA BY THE END OF THE TODAY
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE IN THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NEAR 0Z
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND AS THE SW/V NEARS.
THE FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z SAT. OPTED TO
TRIM BACK POPS AFTER 3Z FOR TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
SC/AC MAY NOT CLEAR ENTIRELY OR JUST BRIEFLY. 8H TEMPS WILL DROP
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 12Z SAT. THE COLDEST READINGS BY 12Z SAT SHOULD BE IN THE
WESTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...MIN T SHOULD BE A LITTLE COLDER IN
THOSE AREAS THAN MORE EASTERN LOCATIONS. SC AND AC SHOULD MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
TRAILING LESS DEFINED TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...THE SC AND OCCASIONAL AC SHOULD HANG ON
TOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIR WITH 8H TEMPS OF -4C TO -6C OR SO
SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z ON SUN. WITH CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND THESE RELATIVELY COLD 8H TEMPS...OPTED TO TRIM BACK MAX T
ON SUN TO THE COOLER END OF MOS GUIDANCE...THOUGH IT COULD REMAIN
COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEAK SW/VS IN THE FLOW COULD
POSSIBLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLURRIES ON SAT NIGHT
OR SUN TO FALL FROM THE SC. MODELS GENERALLY ARE MARGINAL IN HAVING
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPS TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTALS
AND ANY LIFT IS MINIMAL IF NON EXISTENT. AS FOR ANY HELP FROM UPSLOPE
WINDS...WINDS ARE MOST WESTERLY AROUND 12Z SUN AND THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT TO HELP SQUEEZE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. HOWEVER...IF ANY FLURRIES DO FALL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE NO IMPACT DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MIN
T SAT NIGHT HELD UP BY THE CLOUD COVER TO ABOVE FREEZING ON AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND CHANCES
FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO AGREE PRETTY WELL WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS FROM SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT H5 LOW. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...A DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE LACKING ALTHOUGH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND WITH 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 1304 M AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW FLAKES.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF CLEARING AND WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR
AS SLIGHT H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THEN...A CHANGE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
LEAD TO A FEW PROMISING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS COMBINED WITH WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR TEXAS AND MOVE UP THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE A STEADY PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING THE
SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE
FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT WILL FALL
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS MORE SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION LIMIT SURFACE HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED
COLD FRONT HAS STARTED ITS PUSH EASTWARD AND RAIN WILL MAKE A QUICK
EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT RAIN TO END AT
KSME AND KLOZ BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND KJKL SHOULD END RAINFALL
AROUND SUNSET. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AFTER PRECIPITATION
PASSES AS UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A DECK OF STRATUS AROUND 700 TO 800 FEET.
WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE MVFR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AT
ALL TAF SITES. VALLEYS SHOULD FOG PRETTY EASILY WITH A MOIST GROUND
AND DECOUPLING OF LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL SCATTER THE CIGS OUT TONIGHT
AS DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN
ABOUT LOW CIGS WITH ANY POST FRONTAL SCENARIO SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE RETURNS AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY WITH
CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR FORECAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER
000
FXUS63 KLMK 071712
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1212 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.MID-MORNING UPDATE...
JUST DOING A QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO THE PRECIP AND CLOUD GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT SAT AND RADAR IMAGERY. COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED AROUND I-65...AND ALL OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EAST OF
THIS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE BLUEGRASS. WILL END POPS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65 AND CLEAR SKIES OUT OVER THE WRN CWA. AND FOR THE SAME
AREA...WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AT GUSTY WINDS ARE LOCATED
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST...ENDING THOSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES REALLY NEEDED. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SOON.
&&
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...
I HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO REFLECT THE AREA OF RAIN
COMING UP FROM TENNESSEE. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AS A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER MN THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK CHILLY
WNW WIND AND PLENTY OF STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER FOR SAT/SUN. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -3 TO -5 DEGREES C
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE S AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CAUSE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT REACHES THE LEE SIDE SUN NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING MOISTURE TO
OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THEY DO BOTH AGREE ON A
GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN FOR THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS AS
FOLLOWS:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A SECOND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A
SECOND SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALLOW WARMER MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR LATE...IE...LATE WED INTO
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD COPIOUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
SHRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEX TERMINAL
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE MVFR-IFR CIGS AT LEX OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS ROUGHLY...AND
PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE
WEST...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE WSW AT ABOUT 12-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. THESE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY ONLY
AFFECT SDF AND BWG...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 19Z.
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT SDF
AND LEX MAINLY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. BWG MAY ESCAPE THE MVFR CIGS...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE A 4KFT CLOUD DECK. SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY A
LITTLE BREEZY UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
CLOUDY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....AL
UPDATE.......AL
000
FXUS63 KJKL 071606 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1106 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
JUDGING BY SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY FRONT HAS STARTED TO MAKE ITS
EASTWARD PUSH AFTER A BRIEF RETROGRADE THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL JET WORKING INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
MODERATE INTENSITY SHOWERS UP INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD HELP QPF VALUES AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH NOT A
DROUGHT BREAKER...CERTAINLY A BENEFIT TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST TO CATEGORICAL AND MAINTAINED POPS IN THE
CENTRAL AND WEST. LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...DO NOT BELIEVE AREAS SUCH AS SOMERSET...CLAY CITY AND
FLEMINGSBURG WILL GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S TODAY. UPDATED ZFP OUT
SHORTLY.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING A TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS TO APPROACH/MOVE INTO THE MS AND VALLEYS. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN
ADVANCE OF IT. CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY OBSERVED THE
AREA WITH 50S AND 60S ON AVERAGE BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 75 AND
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDORS...THOUGH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE EAST
WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THESE COLDER LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
QUICK MODERATION AROUND SUNRISE.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST WITH A SW/V ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT LATER TODAY.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LIFT IN THE MID
LEVELS CENTERED AROUND 18Z. WITH PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH OR
MORE...THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF VALUES OF RECENT MODEL RUNS AND NOW
SHOWING UP IN THE 3Z SREF ARE SIGNIFICANT AND ARE AT LEAST DEPICTING
A TREND. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION TOWARD HIGHER QPF
AND STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS LOWER THAN THE 0Z GFS
AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/WRF. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS MUCAPES
OF GREATER THAN 100 J/KG...BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL AND LAPSE
RATES ARE GENERALLY MARGINAL AS WELL. ANY THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE
SFC BASED. WITH THE REGION IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AND FOR
CONTINUITY KEPT IN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER. AS FOR POPS
WENT WITH CAT WEST OF THE US HWY 23 CORRIDOR FOR TODAY...WHICH WAS IN
LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH THE 0Z GFS AS
WELL AS THE 0Z AND 6Z NAM/WRF ARE SLOWER TO BRING IN PRECIP IN THE
EAST LIKELY DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS INITIALLY AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WITH
A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. BROUGHT IN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE BIG
SANDY VALLEY/MUCH OF THE VA BORDER AREA BY THE END OF THE TODAY
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE IN THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NEAR 0Z
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND AS THE SW/V NEARS.
THE FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z SAT. OPTED TO
TRIM BACK POPS AFTER 3Z FOR TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
SC/AC MAY NOT CLEAR ENTIRELY OR JUST BRIEFLY. 8H TEMPS WILL DROP
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 12Z SAT. THE COLDEST READINGS BY 12Z SAT SHOULD BE IN THE
WESTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...MIN T SHOULD BE A LITTLE COLDER IN
THOSE AREAS THAN MORE EASTERN LOCATIONS. SC AND AC SHOULD MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
TRAILING LESS DEFINED TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...THE SC AND OCCASIONAL AC SHOULD HANG ON
TOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIR WITH 8H TEMPS OF -4C TO -6C OR SO
SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z ON SUN. WITH CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND THESE RELATIVELY COLD 8H TEMPS...OPTED TO TRIM BACK MAX T
ON SUN TO THE COOLER END OF MOS GUIDANCE...THOUGH IT COULD REMAIN
COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEAK SW/VS IN THE FLOW COULD
POSSIBLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLURRIES ON SAT NIGHT
OR SUN TO FALL FROM THE SC. MODELS GENERALLY ARE MARGINAL IN HAVING
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPS TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTALS
AND ANY LIFT IS MINIMAL IF NON EXISTENT. AS FOR ANY HELP FROM UPSLOPE
WINDS...WINDS ARE MOST WESTERLY AROUND 12Z SUN AND THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT TO HELP SQUEEZE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. HOWEVER...IF ANY FLURRIES DO FALL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE NO IMPACT DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MIN
T SAT NIGHT HELD UP BY THE CLOUD COVER TO ABOVE FREEZING ON AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND CHANCES
FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO AGREE PRETTY WELL WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS FROM SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT H5 LOW. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...A DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE LACKING ALTHOUGH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND WITH 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 1304 M AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW FLAKES.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF CLEARING AND WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR
AS SLIGHT H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THEN...A CHANGE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
LEAD TO A FEW PROMISING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS COMBINED WITH WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR TEXAS AND MOVE UP THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE A STEADY PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING THE
SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE
FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT WILL FALL
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS MORE SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION LIMIT SURFACE HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/
LATEST RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SOMERSET AND
MONTICELLO ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A RAIN SHOWER. A LARGE AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...IN ADVANCE OF VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS IS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH...SO IT WILL TAKE THE AREA OF RAIN A LONG TIME TO MOVE
ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES. LOZ WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL 15Z OR
SO...AND JKL UNTIL 16 OR 17Z. BOTH LOZ AND SME WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...2.5-3K AND 5-6SM
RESPECTIVELY...OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOTHING WORSE...AS
THE CURRENT MODEL DATA AND SURFACE OBS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
BELOW MVFR. JKL WILL ALSO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH CIGS OF AROUND
2K EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN BODY OF RAIN SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF SITE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 OR 6KTS AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND WELL BEHIND IT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. CIGS OF 4-6K WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM 5Z
ONWARD AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS AND OTHER LOW CLOUDS FORM IN THE
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS63 KLMK 071550
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1050 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.MID-MORNING UPDATE...
JUST DOING A QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO THE PRECIP AND CLOUD GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT SAT AND RADAR IMAGERY. COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED AROUND I-65...AND ALL OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EAST OF
THIS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE BLUEGRASS. WILL END POPS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65 AND CLEAR SKIES OUT OVER THE WRN CWA. AND FOR THE SAME
AREA...WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AT GUSTY WINDS ARE LOCATED
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST...ENDING THOSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES REALLY NEEDED. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SOON.
&&
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...
I HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO REFLECT THE AREA OF RAIN
COMING UP FROM TENNESSEE. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AS A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS
LOCATED FROM BWG NORTH TO JUST WEST OF SDF AT 07Z. SCATTERED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS TH REGION NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS COOL FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE
PARENT UPPER CLOSED LOW SPINS OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY
BEFORE TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SO WE
WILL HOLD ONTO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONGER TODAY
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SUGGESTED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BUT A FEW HEAVIER POCKETS WILL EXIST
AND WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE AS WE WILL SEE SOME
BACKING WINDS TODAY AS A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES. FOR THIS
REASON WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON READINGS TOP OUT LOW AND MID 60S.
THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALTHOUGH LOWS
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER MN THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK CHILLY
WNW WIND AND PLENTY OF STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER FOR SAT/SUN. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -3 TO -5 DEGREES C
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE S AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CAUSE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT REACHES THE LEE SIDE SUN NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING MOISTURE TO
OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THEY DO BOTH AGREE ON A
GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN FOR THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS AS
FOLLOWS:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A SECOND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A
SECOND SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALLOW WARMER MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR LATE...IE...LATE WED INTO
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD COPIOUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 11Z
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. CIGS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND 1K FT AND VSBYS TO THE MVFR RANGE. SO WE WILL TIME
THIS PRECIPITATION INTO THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE LOWE OHIO
VALLEY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AT SDF AND LEX AS
A LOW STRATUS DECK DROPS BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....JA
UPDATE.......AL
000
FXUS63 KJKL 071155
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
655 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING A TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS TO APPROACH/MOVE INTO THE MS AND VALLEYS. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN
ADVANCE OF IT. CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY OBSERVED THE
AREA WITH 50S AND 60S ON AVERAGE BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 75 AND
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDORS...THOUGH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE EAST
WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THESE COLDER LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
QUICK MODERATION AROUND SUNRISE.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST WITH A SW/V ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT LATER TODAY.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LIFT IN THE MID
LEVELS CENTERED AROUND 18Z. WITH PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH OR
MORE...THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF VALUES OF RECENT MODEL RUNS AND NOW
SHOWING UP IN THE 3Z SREF ARE SIGNIFICANT AND ARE AT LEAST DEPICTING
A TREND. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION TOWARD HIGHER QPF
AND STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS LOWER THAN THE 0Z GFS
AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/WRF. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS MUCAPES
OF GREATER THAN 100 J/KG...BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL AND LAPSE
RATES ARE GENERALLY MARGINAL AS WELL. ANY THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE
SFC BASED. WITH THE REGION IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AND FOR
CONTINUITY KEPT IN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER. AS FOR POPS
WENT WITH CAT WEST OF THE US HWY 23 CORRIDOR FOR TODAY...WHICH WAS IN
LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH THE 0Z GFS AS
WELL AS THE 0Z AND 6Z NAM/WRF ARE SLOWER TO BRING IN PRECIP IN THE
EAST LIKELY DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS INITIALLY AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WITH
A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. BROUGHT IN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE BIG
SANDY VALLEY/MUCH OF THE VA BORDER AREA BY THE END OF THE TODAY
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE IN THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NEAR 0Z
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND AS THE SW/V NEARS.
THE FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z SAT. OPTED TO
TRIM BACK POPS AFTER 3Z FOR TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
SC/AC MAY NOT CLEAR ENTIRELY OR JUST BRIEFLY. 8H TEMPS WILL DROP
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 12Z SAT. THE COLDEST READINGS BY 12Z SAT SHOULD BE IN THE
WESTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...MIN T SHOULD BE A LITTLE COLDER IN
THOSE AREAS THAN MORE EASTERN LOCATIONS. SC AND AC SHOULD MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
TRAILING LESS DEFINED TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...THE SC AND OCCASIONAL AC SHOULD HANG ON
TOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIR WITH 8H TEMPS OF -4C TO -6C OR SO
SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z ON SUN. WITH CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND THESE RELATIVELY COLD 8H TEMPS...OPTED TO TRIM BACK MAX T
ON SUN TO THE COOLER END OF MOS GUIDANCE...THOUGH IT COULD REMAIN
COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEAK SW/VS IN THE FLOW COULD
POSSIBLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLURRIES ON SAT NIGHT
OR SUN TO FALL FROM THE SC. MODELS GENERALLY ARE MARGINAL IN HAVING
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPS TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTALS
AND ANY LIFT IS MINIMAL IF NON EXISTENT. AS FOR ANY HELP FROM UPSLOPE
WINDS...WINDS ARE MOST WESTERLY AROUND 12Z SUN AND THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT TO HELP SQUEEZE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. HOWEVER...IF ANY FLURRIES DO FALL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE NO IMPACT DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MIN
T SAT NIGHT HELD UP BY THE CLOUD COVER TO ABOVE FREEZING ON AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND CHANCES
FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO AGREE PRETTY WELL WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS FROM SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT H5 LOW. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...A DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE LACKING ALTHOUGH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND WITH 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 1304 M AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW FLAKES.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF CLEARING AND WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR
AS SLIGHT H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THEN...A CHANGE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
LEAD TO A FEW PROMISING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS COMBINED WITH WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR TEXAS AND MOVE UP THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE A STEADY PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING THE
SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE
FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT WILL FALL
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS MORE SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION LIMIT SURFACE HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED
LATEST RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SOMERSET AND
MONTICELLO ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A RAIN SHOWER. A LARGE AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...IN ADVANCE OF VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS IS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH...SO IT WILL TAKE THE AREA OF RAIN A LONG TIME TO MOVE
ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES. LOZ WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL 15Z OR
SO...AND JKL UNTIL 16 OR 17Z. BOTH LOZ AND SME WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...2.5-3K AND 5-6SM
RESPECTIVELY...OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOTHING WORSE...AS
THE CURRENT MODEL DATA AND SURFACE OBS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
BELOW MVFR. JKL WILL ALSO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH CIGS OF AROUND
2K EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN BODY OF RAIN SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF SITE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 OR 6KTS AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND WELL BEHIND IT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. CIGS OF 4-6K WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM 5Z
ONWARD AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS AND OTHER LOW CLOUDS FORM IN THE
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS63 KPAH 071149 AAA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
549 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
06Z HPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT THRU THE PAH FA WITH
NEARLY ALL PCPN TOO. CLEARING IS A LITTLE SLOWER AS THE PARENT LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN AREA. THIS LOW
WILL SPIN INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN ITS CLOUDS
AND COOLER AIR WITH IT. BEST COLD ADVECTION OCCURS SAT AND THIS
AIRMASS STAYS OVERTOP LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SUN...WHEN LOW SHIFTS
EAST AND SOME RETURN FLOW ALLOWS LOWER TROP TEMPS TO WARM AGAIN.
MODIFYING COLD AIR MASS LATER SUN-MON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
SOUPING UP/RETURN RAIN CHANCE LATER MON-WED. THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS WELL ATTENDED AND REQUIRED LITTLE MORE THAN MINOR
TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEWEST DATA.
TEMPS WERE BLEND OF MOS INTO COLLAB PIC WITH PERHAPS THE NOTED
TREND OF ALL MOS A SHAVE COOLER THIS WEEKEND. NAM APPEARS TO HAVE
HANDLE ON SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION/CLEAR OUT AND LIKEWISE ITS
BLAYER TEMPS WERE MORE IN SYNC WITH THE ONGOING THERMAL PROFILE SO
IF WE LEANED ANY DIRECTION IT WAS TOWARD NAM BASED MET MOS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD POST FRONTAL PASSAGE AS ANY
LINGERING EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATE...LEADING TO
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY. FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL BEGIN TO DOT
THE SKY BY AFTERNOON...AND A LARGER MASS OF VFR STRATUS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. AS CLOUDS LINGER TONIGHT...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLMK 071141
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...
I HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO REFLECT THE AREA OF RAIN
COMING UP FROM TENNESSEE. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AS A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SHORT RANGE... (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS
LOCATED FROM BWG NORTH TO JUST WEST OF SDF AT 07Z. SCATTERED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS TH REGION NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS COOL FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE
PARENT UPPER CLOSED LOW SPINS OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY
BEFORE TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SO WE
WILL HOLD ONTO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONGER TODAY
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SUGGESTED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BUT A FEW HEAVIER POCKETS WILL EXIST
AND WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE AS WE WILL SEE SOME
BACKING WINDS TODAY AS A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES. FOR THIS
REASON WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON READINGS TOP OUT LOW AND MID 60S.
THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALTHOUGH LOWS
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER MN THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK CHILLY
WNW WIND AND PLENTY OF STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER FOR SAT/SUN. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -3 TO -5 DEGREES C
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE S AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CAUSE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT REACHES THE LEE SIDE SUN NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING MOISTURE TO
OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THEY DO BOTH AGREE ON A
GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN FOR THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS AS
FOLLOWS:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A SECOND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A
SECOND SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALLOW WARMER MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR LATE...IE...LATE WED INTO
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD COPIOUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 11Z
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. CIGS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND 1K FT AND VSBYS TO THE MVFR RANGE. SO WE WILL TIME
THIS PRECIPITATION INTO THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE LOWE OHIO
VALLEY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AT SDF AND LEX AS
A LOW STRATUS DECK DROPS BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....JA
000
FXUS63 KLMK 071122
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
620 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT RANGE... (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS
LOCATED FROM BWG NORTH TO JUST WEST OF SDF AT 07Z. SCATTERED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS TH REGION NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS COOL FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE
PARENT UPPER CLOSED LOW SPINS OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY
BEFORE TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SO WE
WILL HOLD ONTO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONGER TODAY
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SUGGESTED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BUT A FEW HEAVIER POCKETS WILL EXIST
AND WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE AS WE WILL SEE SOME
BACKING WINDS TODAY AS A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES. FOR THIS
REASON WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON READINGS TOP OUT LOW AND MID 60S.
THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALTHOUGH LOWS
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER MN THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK CHILLY
WNW WIND AND PLENTY OF STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER FOR SAT/SUN. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -3 TO -5 DEGREES C
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE S AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CAUSE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT REACHES THE LEE SIDE SUN NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING MOISTURE TO
OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THEY DO BOTH AGREE ON A
GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN FOR THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS AS
FOLLOWS:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A SECOND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A
SECOND SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALLOW WARMER MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR LATE...IE...LATE WED INTO
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD COPIOUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 11Z
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. CIGS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND 1K FT AND VSBYS TO THE MVFR RANGE. SO WE WILL TIME
THIS PRECIPITATION INTO THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE LOWE OHIO
VALLEY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AT SDF AND LEX AS
A LOW STRATUS DECK DROPS BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....JA
000
FXUS63 KPAH 070908
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
06Z HPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT THRU THE PAH FA WITH
NEARLY ALL PCPN TOO. CLEARING IS A LITTLE SLOWER AS THE PARENT LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN AREA. THIS LOW
WILL SPIN INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN ITS CLOUDS
AND COOLER AIR WITH IT. BEST COLD ADVECTION OCCURS SAT AND THIS
AIRMASS STAYS OVERTOP LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SUN...WHEN LOW SHIFTS
EAST AND SOME RETURN FLOW ALLOWS LOWER TROP TEMPS TO WARM AGAIN.
MODIFYING COLD AIR MASS LATER SUN-MON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
SOUPING UP/RETURN RAIN CHANCE LATER MON-WED. THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS WELL ATTENDED AND REQUIRED LITTLE MORE THAN MINOR
TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEWEST DATA.
TEMPS WERE BLEND OF MOS INTO COLLAB PIC WITH PERHAPS THE NOTED
TREND OF ALL MOS A SHAVE COOLER THIS WEEKEND. NAM APPEARS TO HAVE
HANDLE ON SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION/CLEAR OUT AND LIKEWISE ITS
BLAYER TEMPS WERE MORE IN SYNC WITH THE ONGOING THERMAL PROFILE SO
IF WE LEANED ANY DIRECTION IT WAS TOWARD NAM BASED MET MOS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING WEST TO EAST...WITH FOG RESTRICTING VSBYS AT
KCGI. AS SKIES CLEAR...FOG WILL FORM AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES.
A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS APPEARS LIKELY AT KPAH...MVFR AT KEVV/KOWB
GIVEN LATER CLEARING. LOTS OF CLEAR SKY AFTER FOG BURN OFF WILL
GIVE WAY TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BY EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS THAT
COULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KJKL 070829
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
329 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING A TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS TO APPROACH/MOVE INTO THE MS AND VALLEYS. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN
ADVANCE OF IT. CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY OBSERVED THE
AREA WITH 50S AND 60S ON AVERAGE BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 75 AND
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDORS...THOUGH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE EAST
WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THESE COLDER LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
QUICK MODERATION AROUND SUNRISE.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST WITH A SW/V ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT LATER TODAY.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LIFT IN THE MID
LEVELS CENTERED AROUND 18Z. WITH PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH OR
MORE...THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF VALUES OF RECENT MODEL RUNS AND NOW
SHOWING UP IN THE 3Z SREF ARE SIGNIFICANT AND ARE AT LEAST DEPICTING
A TREND. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION TOWARD HIGHER QPF
AND STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS LOWER THAN THE 0Z GFS
AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/WRF. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS MUCAPES
OF GREATER THAN 100 J/KG...BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL AND LAPSE
RATES ARE GENERALLY MARGINAL AS WELL. ANY THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE
SFC BASED. WITH THE REGION IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AND FOR
CONTINUITY KEPT IN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER. AS FOR POPS
WENT WITH CAT WEST OF THE US HWY 23 CORRIDOR FOR TODAY...WHICH WAS IN
LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH THE 0Z GFS AS
WELL AS THE 0Z AND 6Z NAM/WRF ARE SLOWER TO BRING IN PRECIP IN THE
EAST LIKELY DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS INITIALLY AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WITH
A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. BROUGHT IN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE BIG
SANDY VALLEY/MUCH OF THE VA BORDER AREA BY THE END OF THE TODAY
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE IN THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NEAR 0Z
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND AS THE SW/V NEARS.
THE FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z SAT. OPTED TO
TRIM BACK POPS AFTER 3Z FOR TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
SC/AC MAY NOT CLEAR ENTIRELY OR JUST BRIEFLY. 8H TEMPS WILL DROP
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 12Z SAT. THE COLDEST READINGS BY 12Z SAT SHOULD BE IN THE
WESTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...MIN T SHOULD BE A LITTLE COLDER IN
THOSE AREAS THAN MORE EASTERN LOCATIONS. SC AND AC SHOULD MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
TRAILING LESS DEFINED TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...THE SC AND OCCASIONAL AC SHOULD HANG ON
TOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIR WITH 8H TEMPS OF -4C TO -6C OR SO
SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z ON SUN. WITH CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND THESE RELATIVELY COLD 8H TEMPS...OPTED TO TRIM BACK MAX T
ON SUN TO THE COOLER END OF MOS GUIDANCE...THOUGH IT COULD REMAIN
COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEAK SW/VS IN THE FLOW COULD
POSSIBLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLURRIES ON SAT NIGHT
OR SUN TO FALL FROM THE SC. MODELS GENERALLY ARE MARGINAL IN HAVING
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPS TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTALS
AND ANY LIFT IS MINIMAL IF NON EXISTENT. AS FOR ANY HELP FROM UPSLOPE
WINDS...WINDS ARE MOST WESTERLY AROUND 12Z SUN AND THIS MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT TO HELP SQUEEZE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. HOWEVER...IF ANY FLURRIES DO FALL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE NO IMPACT DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MIN
T SAT NIGHT HELD UP BY THE CLOUD COVER TO ABOVE FREEZING ON AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND CHANCES
FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO AGREE PRETTY WELL WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS FROM SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT H5 LOW. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...A DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE LACKING ALTHOUGH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND WITH 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 1304 M AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW FLAKES.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF CLEARING AND WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR
AS SLIGHT H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THEN...A CHANGE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
LEAD TO A FEW PROMISING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS COMBINED WITH WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR TEXAS AND MOVE UP THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE A STEADY PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING THE
SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE
FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT WILL FALL
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS MORE SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION LIMIT SURFACE HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 15 OR 16Z AT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 6 AND 8K. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER
16Z...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THE
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH ON MINIMAL IMPACTS ON
VISIBILITY AT EACH OF THE AIRPORTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD
PRODUCE THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE MODEL DATA. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE VFR CATEGORY...WITH VALUES OF 6SM POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME
OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...AS SOME PRECIPITATION FOG COULD FORM. THE
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND MODEL PLAN VIEWS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
RAIN LATER TODAY BY A FEW HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OB TRENDS UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE MODELS DUE HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...SO SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL UNTIL 16-18Z TIME FRAME TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR AT LOZ AND SME AROUND 16Z AND 18Z AT JKL...AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO AID IN THE SATURATION
OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS63 KLMK 070758
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT RANGE... (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS
LOCATED FROM BWG NORTH TO JUST WEST OF SDF AT 07Z. SCATTERED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS TH REGION NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS COOL FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE
PARENT UPPER CLOSED LOW SPINS OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY
BEFORE TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SO WE
WILL HOLD ONTO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONGER TODAY
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SUGGESTED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BUT A FEW HEAVIER POCKETS WILL EXIST
AND WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE AS WE WILL SEE SOME
BACKING WINDS TODAY AS A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES. FOR THIS
REASON WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON READINGS TOP OUT LOW AND MID 60S.
THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALTHOUGH LOWS
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER MN THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK CHILLY
WNW WIND AND PLENTY OF STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER FOR SAT/SUN. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -3 TO -5 DEGREES C
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE S AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CAUSE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT REACHES THE LEE SIDE SUN NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING MOISTURE TO
OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THEY DO BOTH AGREE ON A
GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN FOR THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS AS
FOLLOWS:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A SECOND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A
SECOND SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALLOW WARMER MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR LATE...IE...LATE WED INTO
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD COPIOUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF OWB
AND HOP AT 05Z. CLOUDS AND VSBYS ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE
VFR AND WE EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THERE IS A NICE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT SO
WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE AFTER 12Z BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTER FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KENTUCKY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....JA
000
FXUS63 KJKL 070553
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1253 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/
03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SKINNY COLD FRONT SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FRONT IS CARRYING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT...
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND ARE JUST ABOUT TO
CROSS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADVANCE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND WITH
JUST LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY OVER OUR AREA. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING FROM NEAR
60 DEGREES ON THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. EXPECT MUCH OF THESE DIFFERENCES TO MIX OUT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...PRECEDED BY THE CLOUDS AND A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT...REPLACING THE DRIER AIR...WITH DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE
UPPER 30S...CURRENTLY IN EAST KENTUCKY. THE GRIDS HAVE THIS
TRANSITION WELL IN HAND AS WELL AS THE ZONES. WILL UPDATE THE TEMP
AND DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS AS WELL AS
ADDING A NON DIURNAL TREND TO LATE TONIGHT FOR RISING TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN VALLEYS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE MUCH IN THE EAST
UNTIL A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL KEEP THE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT IN FOR TONIGHT IN THE EAST. ALSO...A COUPLE OF WILD FIRES ARE
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IN WAYNE COUNTY AND HARLAN COUNTY. TALKED TO THE
FOREST SERVICE AND DECIDED TO MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST...AND NOT ISSUE A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY ATTM. THE SMOKE SEEMS
TO HAVE DISBURSED IN ESTILL COUNTY AND WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES THERE. ALSO NO ORGANIZED SMOKE PLUME VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
ANY LONGER. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN TIER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE
CATEGORICAL POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING QPF TO BE THAT IMPRESSIVE.
RAINFALL SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. VERY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS NOTED...AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TRIED TO INDICATE A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES SOME. WITH THE FRONT STILL LINGERING IN THE
EAST IN THE EVENING...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THERE...TAPERING OFF
TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BROAD TROUGHING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT...SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THINK MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY PRECIP ATTM. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN
THE EAST ON FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL SEE THE LATEST ONSET OF PRECIP.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY...ONLY MAKING IT TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND CHANCES
FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO AGREE PRETTY WELL WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS FROM SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT H5 LOW. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...A DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE LACKING ALTHOUGH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND WITH 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 1304 M AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW FLAKES.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF CLEARING AND WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR
AS SLIGHT H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THEN...A CHANGE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
LEAD TO A FEW PROMISING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS COMBINED WITH WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR TEXAS AND MOVE UP THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE A STEADY PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING THE
SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE
FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT WILL FALL
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS MORE SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION LIMIT SURFACE HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 15 OR 16Z AT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 6 AND 8K. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER
16Z...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THE
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH ON MINIMAL IMPACTS ON
VISIBILITY AT EACH OF THE AIRPORTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD
PRODUCE THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE MODEL DATA. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE VFR CATEGORY...WITH VALUES OF 6SM POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME
OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...AS SOME PRECIPITATION FOG COULD FORM. THE
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND MODEL PLAN VIEWS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
RAIN LATER TODAY BY A FEW HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OB TRENDS UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE MODELS DUE HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...SO SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL UNTIL 16-18Z TIME FRAME TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR AT LOZ AND SME AROUND 16Z AND 18Z AT JKL...AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO AID IN THE SATURATION
OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WJM/GREIF
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS63 KPAH 070543
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1143 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS
.DISCUSSION /ISSUED 137 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008/...
WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS FROM INTERSTATE 55 EAST.
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AN EASTWARD TRANSLATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA. WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION LIMITED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN MODEL GENERATED STABILITY PARAMETERS. LOWS TONIGHT WERE
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
A LARGE AND DEEP MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PAH FCST AREA BY 12Z FRI...PRECLUDING SHWR
ACTIVITY AFTER THAT. A DRY SLOT SE OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PEAK TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FRI AFTN. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A SWRLY COMPONENT...AND
GUSTY DUE TO A 100+KT UPPER JET AND 60+KT WINDS AT MID LEVELS AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. AS THE LARGE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SAT... THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY TO A MORE NWRLY
DIRECTION...AND STILL GUSTY AT TIMES. BEHIND THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE
AIR ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER...MAKING SAT A RATHER RAW DAY. COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SEEMED TO HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES SEEMED TO DIFFER ESPECIALLY
WITH TIMING OF PCPN ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS
DEPICTION OF A MID LEVEL TROF/LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IS FOR IT TO BE AN OPEN WAVE VS. A CLOSED LOW...RESULTING IN A MORE
EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD TO THE NE OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WHICH IS
SHOWN FARTHER NE THAN THE HPC AND OTHER MODEL/S DEPICTION. FOR BEST
COORDINATION...THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE BASED HEAVILY ON HPC
GUIDANCE WHICH REPRESENTED A MIDDLE ROAD BETWEEN THE MAJOR
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS WILL MEAN A RAIN EVENT MON
THROUGH WED FOR THE PAH FCST AREA...INCLUDING THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE
OF LIGHTNING IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF KY TUE NIGHT NEAR THE SFC
LOW.
THE MODELS SUGGEST A SRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SRN PLAINS BY THU/DAY 7/...PROVIDING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR PCPN. IT LOOKS PRETTY VIGOROUS. DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...CONVECTION COULD BE STRONG.
&&
.AVIATION...
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CLEARING LINE CAME TO A HALT EARLIER
TONIGHT. SLOW PROGRESS HAS RESUMED...BUT CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED
UNTIL AT LEAST 10Z AT KEVV/KOWB. WHERE SKIES CLEARED...DENSE FOG
FORMED AT KCGI. AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...FOG WILL FORM AT
THE REMAINING TAF SITES. A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS APPEARS LIKELY AT
KPAH. IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL LINGER UNTIL ALMOST SUNRISE AT
KEVV/KOWB...WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL THERE. LOTS OF CLEAR SKY
FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BY EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MY
000
FXUS63 KLMK 070513
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1215 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE..
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH RESPECT TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT NORTH-SOUTH TONGUE OF WARM AIR
GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR...WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 70 ALONG THAT STRETCH BUT ONLY AROUND 60 TO THE EAST AND
WEST. ALSO UPDATED DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER CAPTURE THE LOW SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE BLUE GRASS. DIDN/T HAVE TO MAKE MANY EDITS TO
POPS...THOUGH DID INCREASE POPS A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS FROM HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY IN THE FAR EAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS
AGREE ON A DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. SPC TOOK US
OUT OF THE GENERAL THUNDER RISK AREA BUT I DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DUE TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
SAY GOODBYE TO THE MID 70S! MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE
TIMING THE PRECIP AND DETERMINING PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ON THE MO/IL
BORDER...WITH ITS SFC LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA. AS THE LOW TRACKS NE
TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST. A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CAN BE
SEEN ON VIS SAT/RADAR. THUS IT WILL NOT RAIN FOR A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. RATHER PRECIP WILL BE MORE HIT OR MISS
TYPE RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EMBEDDED ALONG
THE FRONT. BUT KEPT THE LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT AS IT IS A GOOD CHANCE
OF LITTLE RAINFALL...MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH AREAWIDE. THE MAIN
PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY 00Z...THE CENTRAL CWA (AKA
FROM SALEM TO LOUISVILLE DOWN TO GLASGOW) AROUND 04Z...AND OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION BEFORE SUNRISE. SFC WINDS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 25MPH...MAYBE UP TO 30 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND HIGHER BL WINDS
TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER WITH MINIMUM TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
FOR FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. BY MIDDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS.
TOOK OUT ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE WSW TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT/CLOUDS MAY MOVE EAST
AND THE SUN MAY COME OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE COOLER AS
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SYNOPSIS...
A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL DRIFT FROM
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL STAY IN A COOL CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
BROAD AREA OF LOW SURFACE PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATO-CU WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS WEEKEND.
A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BRING AT LEAST A COUPLE
CHANCES OF SUBSTANTIAL WETTING RAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WILL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY LATE FRIDAY. AS THIS
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY AND ENVELOP THE ENTIRE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 11C FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO FALL TO +3C
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
AFTER PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE FRIDAY...WRAP-AROUND LOW
STRATO-CU WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN CWA EARLY SATURDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM 850
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS SHOW THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS EXTENSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL GRADE MY
WEEKEND CLOUD FORECAST FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY
NEAR TENNESSEE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEKEND...PEAKING AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE 12 OP GFS SHOW A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY MONDAY. AS AN EARLY SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...A STRONG DIGGING JET OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HEAD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW
ITSELF. RATHER...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS
TENNESSEE TUESDAY...SETTING UP AN OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT ACROSS
KENTUCKY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HEAVY BY ANY MEANS WITH THIS
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD.
A SECOND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A
SECOND SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
DO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALLOW WARMER MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR LATE...IE...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD COPIOUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF OWB
AND HOP AT 05Z. CLOUDS AND VSBYS ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE
VFR AND WE EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THERE IS A NICE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT SO
WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE AFTER 12Z BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTER FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KENTUCKY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....JA
000
FXUS63 KJKL 070410 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1110 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED
03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SKINNY COLD FRONT SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FRONT IS CARRYING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT...
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND ARE JUST ABOUT TO
CROSS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADVANCE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND WITH
JUST LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY OVER OUR AREA. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING FROM NEAR
60 DEGREES ON THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. EXPECT MUCH OF THESE DIFFERENCES TO MIX OUT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...PRECEDED BY THE CLOUDS AND A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT...REPLACING THE DRIER AIR...WITH DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE
UPPER 30S...CURRENTLY IN EAST KENTUCKY. THE GRIDS HAVE THIS
TRANSITION WELL IN HAND AS WELL AS THE ZONES. WILL UPDATE THE TEMP
AND DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS AS WELL AS
ADDING A NON DIURNAL TREND TO LATE TONIGHT FOR RISING TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN VALLEYS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE MUCH IN THE EAST
UNTIL A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL KEEP THE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT IN FOR TONIGHT IN THE EAST. ALSO...A COUPLE OF WILD FIRES ARE
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IN WAYNE COUNTY AND HARLAN COUNTY. TALKED TO THE
FOREST SERVICE AND DECIDED TO MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST...AND NOT ISSUE A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY ATTM. THE SMOKE SEEMS
TO HAVE DISBURSED IN ESTILL COUNTY AND WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES THERE. ALSO NO ORGANIZED SMOKE PLUME VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
ANY LONGER. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN TIER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE
CATEGORICAL POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING QPF TO BE THAT IMPRESSIVE.
RAINFALL SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. VERY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS NOTED...AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TRIED TO INDICATE A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES SOME. WITH THE FRONT STILL LINGERING IN THE
EAST IN THE EVENING...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THERE...TAPERING OFF
TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BROAD TROUGHING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT...SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THINK MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY PRECIP ATTM. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN
THE EAST ON FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL SEE THE LATEST ONSET OF PRECIP.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY...ONLY MAKING IT TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND CHANCES
FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO AGREE PRETTY WELL WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS FROM SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT H5 LOW. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...A DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE LACKING ALTHOUGH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND WITH 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 1304 M AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW FLAKES.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF CLEARING AND WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR
AS SLIGHT H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THEN...A CHANGE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
LEAD TO A FEW PROMISING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS COMBINED WITH WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR TEXAS AND MOVE UP THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE A STEADY PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING THE
SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE
FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT WILL FALL
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS MORE SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION LIMIT SURFACE HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING CIGS AND VISBYS DOWN INTO THE UPPER END MVFR
AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. DOUBTS BASICALLY CENTER AROUND THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP
ENOUGH FOR MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS. UPSTREAM OBS WOULD INDICATE GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH A POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR FOR A PERIOD OF
SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA IN ERNST AS DAWN
APPROACHES WHEN A BAND OF MID AND LOWER LEVER CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...AFFECTING WESTERN TAF SITES FIRST.
EXPECT TIMING OF ANY PRECIP TO REACH SME ABOUT 13Z... LOZ AROUND 15Z
AND JKL CLOSER TO 17Z AS THIS SYSTEMS RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF
WEATHER GRADUALLY ROTATES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS
ATTM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WJM/GREIF
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...WJM/RAY
000
FXUS63 KLMK 070139
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
839 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.UPDATE..
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH RESPECT TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT NORTH-SOUTH TONGUE OF WARM AIR
GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR...WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 70 ALONG THAT STRETCH BUT ONLY AROUND 60 TO THE EAST AND
WEST. ALSO UPDATED DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER CAPTURE THE LOW SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE BLUE GRASS. DIDN/T HAVE TO MAKE MANY EDITS TO
POPS...THOUGH DID INCREASE POPS A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS FROM HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY IN THE FAR EAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS
AGREE ON A DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. SPC TOOK US
OUT OF THE GENERAL THUNDER RISK AREA BUT I DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DUE TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
SAY GOODBYE TO THE MID 70S! MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE
TIMING THE PRECIP AND DETERMINING PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ON THE MO/IL
BORDER...WITH ITS SFC LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA. AS THE LOW TRACKS NE
TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST. A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CAN BE
SEEN ON VIS SAT/RADAR. THUS IT WILL NOT RAIN FOR A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. RATHER PRECIP WILL BE MORE HIT OR MISS
TYPE RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EMBEDDED ALONG
THE FRONT. BUT KEPT THE LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT AS IT IS A GOOD CHANCE
OF LITTLE RAINFALL...MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH AREAWIDE. THE MAIN
PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY 00Z...THE CENTRAL CWA (AKA
FROM SALEM TO LOUISVILLE DOWN TO GLASGOW) AROUND 04Z...AND OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION BEFORE SUNRISE. SFC WINDS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 25MPH...MAYBE UP TO 30 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND HIGHER BL WINDS
TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER WITH MINIMUM TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
FOR FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. BY MIDDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS.
TOOK OUT ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE WSW TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT/CLOUDS MAY MOVE EAST
AND THE SUN MAY COME OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE COOLER AS
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SYNOPSIS...
A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL DRIFT FROM
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL STAY IN A COOL CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
BROAD AREA OF LOW SURFACE PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATO-CU WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS WEEKEND.
A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BRING AT LEAST A COUPLE
CHANCES OF SUBSTANTIAL WETTING RAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WILL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY LATE FRIDAY. AS THIS
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY AND ENVELOP THE ENTIRE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 11C FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO FALL TO +3C
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
AFTER PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE FRIDAY...WRAP-AROUND LOW
STRATO-CU WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN CWA EARLY SATURDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM 850
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS SHOW THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS EXTENSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL GRADE MY
WEEKEND CLOUD FORECAST FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY
NEAR TENNESSEE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEKEND...PEAKING AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE 12 OP GFS SHOW A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY MONDAY. AS AN EARLY SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...A STRONG DIGGING JET OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HEAD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW
ITSELF. RATHER...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS
TENNESSEE TUESDAY...SETTING UP AN OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT ACROSS
KENTUCKY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HEAVY BY ANY MEANS WITH THIS
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD.
A SECOND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A
SECOND SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
DO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALLOW WARMER MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR LATE...IE...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD COPIOUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ENOUGH FOR "VCSH"...WILL BE FOUND IN THE AREA THIS EVENING
AT SDF AND BWG. SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A POOL OF MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT IT IS MEAGER
ENOUGH TO LEAVE TS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE SHOWERS WILL END
FRIDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z.
WE WILL GET DRY SLOTTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING BUT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....13
000
FXUS63 KPAH 070013
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
608 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS
.DISCUSSION /ISSUED 137 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008/...
WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS FROM INTERSTATE 55 EAST.
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AN EASTWARD TRANSLATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA. WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION LIMITED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN MODEL GENERATED STABILITY PARAMETERS. LOWS TONIGHT WERE
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
A LARGE AND DEEP MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PAH FCST AREA BY 12Z FRI...PRECLUDING SHWR
ACTIVITY AFTER THAT. A DRY SLOT SE OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PEAK TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FRI AFTN. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A SWRLY COMPONENT...AND
GUSTY DUE TO A 100+KT UPPER JET AND 60+KT WINDS AT MID LEVELS AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. AS THE LARGE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SAT... THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY TO A MORE NWRLY
DIRECTION...AND STILL GUSTY AT TIMES. BEHIND THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE
AIR ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER...MAKING SAT A RATHER RAW DAY. COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SEEMED TO HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES SEEMED TO DIFFER ESPECIALLY
WITH TIMING OF PCPN ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS
DEPICTION OF A MID LEVEL TROF/LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IS FOR IT TO BE AN OPEN WAVE VS. A CLOSED LOW...RESULTING IN A MORE
EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD TO THE NE OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WHICH IS
SHOWN FARTHER NE THAN THE HPC AND OTHER MODEL/S DEPICTION. FOR BEST
COORDINATION...THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE BASED HEAVILY ON HPC
GUIDANCE WHICH REPRESENTED A MIDDLE ROAD BETWEEN THE MAJOR
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS WILL MEAN A RAIN EVENT MON
THROUGH WED FOR THE PAH FCST AREA...INCLUDING THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE
OF LIGHTNING IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF KY TUE NIGHT NEAR THE SFC
LOW.
THE MODELS SUGGEST A SRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SRN PLAINS BY THU/DAY 7/...PROVIDING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR PCPN. IT LOOKS PRETTY VIGOROUS. DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...CONVECTION COULD BE STRONG.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEARING LINE NEAR KCGI AT 00Z WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES BY 06Z. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AT KEVV/KOWB. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH AN
ISOLATED BRIEF IFR CIG. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS LATER TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MY
000
FXUS63 KJKL 062320
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
620 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN VALLEYS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE MUCH IN THE EAST
UNTIL A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL KEEP THE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT IN FOR TONIGHT IN THE EAST. ALSO...A COUPLE OF WILD FIRES ARE
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IN WAYNE COUNTY AND HARLAN COUNTY. TALKED TO THE
FOREST SERVICE AND DECIDED TO MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST...AND NOT ISSUE A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY ATTM. THE SMOKE SEEMS
TO HAVE DISBURSED IN ESTILL COUNTY AND WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES THERE. ALSO NO ORGANIZED SMOKE PLUME VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
ANY LONGER. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN TIER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE
CATEGORICAL POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING QPF TO BE THAT IMPRESSIVE.
RAINFALL SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. VERY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS NOTED...AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TRIED TO INDICATE A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES SOME. WITH THE FRONT STILL LINGERING IN THE
EAST IN THE EVENING...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THERE...TAPERING OFF
TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BROAD TROUGHING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT...SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THINK MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY PRECIP ATTM. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN
THE EAST ON FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL SEE THE LATEST ONSET OF PRECIP.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY...ONLY MAKING IT TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND CHANCES
FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO AGREE PRETTY WELL WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS FROM SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT H5 LOW. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...A DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE LACKING ALTHOUGH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND WITH 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 1304 M AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW FLAKES.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF CLEARING AND WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR
AS SLIGHT H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THEN...A CHANGE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
LEAD TO A FEW PROMISING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS COMBINED WITH WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR TEXAS AND MOVE UP THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE A STEADY PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING THE
SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE
FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT WILL FALL
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS MORE SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION LIMIT SURFACE HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING CIGS AND VISBYS DOWN INTO THE UPPER END MVFR
AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. DOUBTS BASICALLY CENTER AROUND THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP
ENOUGH FOR MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS. UPSTREAM OBS WOULD INDICATE GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH A POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR FOR A PERIOD OF
SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA IN ERNST AS DAWN
APPROACHES WHEN A BAND OF MID AND LOWER LEVER CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...AFFECTING WESTERN TAF SITES FIRST.
EXPECT TIMING OF ANY PRECIP TO REACH SME ABOUT 13Z... LOZ AROUND 15Z
AND JKL CLOSER TO 17Z AS THIS SYSTEMS RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF
WEATHER GRADUALLY ROTATES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS
ATTM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...WJM/RAY
000
FXUS63 KLMK 062303
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
603 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
SAY GOODBYE TO THE MID 70S! MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE
TIMING THE PRECIP AND DETERMINING PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ON THE MO/IL
BORDER...WITH ITS SFC LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA. AS THE LOW TRACKS NE
TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST. A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CAN BE
SEEN ON VIS SAT/RADAR. THUS IT WILL NOT RAIN FOR A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. RATHER PRECIP WILL BE MORE HIT OR MISS
TYPE RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EMBEDDED ALONG
THE FRONT. BUT KEPT THE LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT AS IT IS A GOOD CHANCE
OF LITTLE RAINFALL...MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH AREAWIDE. THE MAIN
PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY 00Z...THE CENTRAL CWA (AKA
FROM SALEM TO LOUISVILLE DOWN TO GLASGOW) AROUND 04Z...AND OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION BEFORE SUNRISE. SFC WINDS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 25MPH...MAYBE UP TO 30 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND HIGHER BL WINDS
TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER WITH MINIMUM TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
FOR FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. BY MIDDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS.
TOOK OUT ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE WSW TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT/CLOUDS MAY MOVE EAST
AND THE SUN MAY COME OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE COOLER AS
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SYNOPSIS...
A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL DRIFT FROM
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL STAY IN A COOL CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
BROAD AREA OF LOW SURFACE PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATO-CU WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS WEEKEND.
A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BRING AT LEAST A COUPLE
CHANCES OF SUBSTANTIAL WETTING RAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WILL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY LATE FRIDAY. AS THIS
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY AND ENVELOP THE ENTIRE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 11C FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO FALL TO +3C
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
AFTER PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE FRIDAY...WRAP-AROUND LOW
STRATO-CU WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN CWA EARLY SATURDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM 850
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS SHOW THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS EXTENSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL GRADE MY
WEEKEND CLOUD FORECAST FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY
NEAR TENNESSEE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEKEND...PEAKING AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE 12 OP GFS SHOW A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY MONDAY. AS AN EARLY SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...A STRONG DIGGING JET OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HEAD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW
ITSELF. RATHER...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS
TENNESSEE TUESDAY...SETTING UP AN OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT ACROSS
KENTUCKY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HEAVY BY ANY MEANS WITH THIS
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD.
A SECOND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A
SECOND SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
DO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALLOW WARMER MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR LATE...IE...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD COPIOUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ENOUGH FOR "VCSH"...WILL BE FOUND IN THE AREA THIS EVENING
AT SDF AND BWG. SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A POOL OF MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT IT IS MEAGER
ENOUGH TO LEAVE TS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE SHOWERS WILL END
FRIDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z.
WE WILL GET DRY SLOTTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING BUT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....13
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