[top]
000
FXUS64 KJAN 082117
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A RATHER LARGE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH HELPING TO BRING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION NOW
WILL BE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...COOL AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLANTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ARKLAMISS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SITUATION WILL CHANGE QUICKLY
THEREAFTER...BUT EXPECT ONLY A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER LATE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THAT TIME. WENT CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS TONIGHT...SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING (OR NEAR-FREEZING) TEMPS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND IN EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT
OCCURRENCE (AND RELATIVE CONFIDENCE) OF ANY FREEZING TEMPS IS TOO
LOW TO THINK ABOUT ISSUING FREEZE PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. IF LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC WINDS WERE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT I WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT IN ISOLATED FREEZING CONDITIONS...BUT SINCE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OPTIMAL I
EXPECT THE COLDEST CONDITIONS TO BE CONFINED TO VERY SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS. COULD SEE SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM CITIES TONIGHT AND IN
EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW...BUT SUB 90% RH VALUES TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
ANY FROST FROM BEING VERY HEAVY.
ON TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. THE PATTERN WILL BE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING
INTO A MORE TURBULENT ONE FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATER
MONDAY...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (SOME AMPLIFYING) COMING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. A
WEST-TO-EAST OR SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOULD BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR EACH ONE OF DISTURBANCE PASSAGES
LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY SO SURFACE LOW TRACKS
SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY AND UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FOCUSES OF LIFT
SHOULD LINK TO ENSURE PRECIP. BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW LOOK TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...AND THEN LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTLY COMING TO ANY KIND
OF CONSENSUS FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...SO DETAILS ARE BY NO MEANS
ASSURED. HOWEVER...THERE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE REGION THIS COMING WEAK WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO SUPPRESSED POSITION OF MENTIONED BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ASSOCIATED LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
NONE OF THE THINKING FROM THIS PERSPECTIVE ON THE COMING WEEK IS
MUCH DIFFERENT ASIDE FROM A FEW DETAILS MENTIONED ABOVE. OFFICIAL
FORECAST UPDATED A LITTLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON LATEST
MAV GUIDANCE...BUT POP AND TEMP NUMBERS WERE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAD. LEFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALONE AFTER 60
HOURS. WILL POST THE RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
FORECAST BELOW. /BB/
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...LATE MON INTO TUE A NICE WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AND THAT FEATURE WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS WARM ADV REALLY GETS GOING AS PERSISTENT ASCENT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS JUST TO OUR
WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW MORE FOCUSED DISTURBANCES WHICH
WILL PROVIDE MORE EFFICIENT PRECIP/CONVECTION BUT TIMING THOSE ARE
VERY DIFFICULT. OUTSIDE OF THOSE FEATURES...GENERAL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA TO MEASURE SOME PRECIP FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE PERIODS.
DUE TO THIS...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE PREV FORECAST AND LATEST GFS
GUID POPS. BASICALLY I HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NW HALF WHICH
IS IN-LINE WITH THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.
AS FOR ANY STRONG/SVR ACTIVITY...THIS IS VERY TOUGH TO PINPOINT AT
THIS TIME...BUT I CAN SEE SOME POTENTIAL ON MAYBE 2 WINDOWS OF TIME.
THE FIRST WOULD BE ON TUE AS THE WARM FRONT REALLY EVOLVES OVER THE
AREA. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME AND POSSIBLE SOME SFC BASED IF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW CAN
DRAW NORTHWARD SOME MID/UPPER 60 DEWPTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND IF THE LEAD S/W CAN NOT LIFT NORTHWARD TOO
QUICKLY THEN THE ASCENT WILL BE PRETTY GOOD AS WELL. I WOULD STILL
LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR TWO BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS IN SUCH A
COMPLEX CASE. THE OTHER WINDOW MAY BE AROUND THU-THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER DECENT DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUR WAY. BY THIS TIME...THE SLOW
MOVING SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME CYCLOGENESIS WHICH MAY IN-TERN
HELP TO INTENSIFY THE UPPER FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY...RICH GULF
MOISTURE MAY BE AT THE DOOR STEP AND COULD SURGE INTO THE AREA
QUICKLY. AGAIN...A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS WILL HELP IRON THINGS OUT
SOME. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE HWO...BUT
WATCH CLOSELY.
AS FOR TEMPS...THESE ARE VERY TOUGH BUT I DID MAKE SOME ADJ.
BASICALLY FROM TUE-THU I WENT WITH A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP. FOLLOWING THE SLOWER EVOLUTION...I DIDN`T GO AS COOL
THU. GUID VALUES LOOKED GOOD FRI-SAT. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY W/NW WIND
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE BY SUNSET. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. A FEW
PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR RIVER BEDS AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THESE WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 38 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 35 62 33 66 / 0 0 0 3
VICKSBURG 37 63 40 67 / 0 0 2 22
HATTIESBURG 37 65 36 69 / 0 0 0 4
NATCHEZ 39 64 40 67 / 0 0 3 16
GREENVILLE 38 61 39 60 / 0 0 2 36
GREENWOOD 36 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 21
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
50/07
000
FXUS64 KJAN 081714 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION (AND CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES) IS PUSHING A
REINFORCING COOL SURGE TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS LATE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THUS FAR...AFTER A COOL/CHILLY
START...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF (OR PERHAPS EVEN FALL A TOUCH)
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN ZONES. FURTHER SOUTH...AFTERNOON
WARMING WILL BE LIMITED OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FAR SOUTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER SURGE MAY HOLD
OFF TILL LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ALL BUT A
VERY FEW AREAS.
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGHS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ADJUSTMENTS TO
TODAY`S GRIDS MOSTLY INVOLVED TWEAKING HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
/BB/
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE AND IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
FILTER IN A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WHICH WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT SUNNY
AFTERNOONS...AND COOL...AND FOR THE MOST PART...CLEAR NIGHTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO LOOK TO BEGIN
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...BUT LOOK FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR HIGHS I STAYED FAIRLY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. HOWEVER AFTER LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED BY THE MODELS AND COMPARING THEM TO LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY...I
DID ADJUST LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. /19/
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED MED
RANGE/LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON TAP THIS MORNING. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON DETAILS...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTS
TO SUPPORT A RATHER WET COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
BY MON-TUE...THE LARGE EASTERN/GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL LIFTED
FURTHER NE AND SOLID DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE W/SW
AND GENERALLY EVOLVE THE PATTERN TO ONE OF SW FLOW ALOFT AS A
GENERAL TROUGH AXIS WILL SETUP JUST TO OUR WEST. FALLING HEIGHTS TO
OUR WEST WILL HELP DEVELOP A LEE SIDE LOW AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE THAT
SFC FEATURE OVER THE S PLAINS. AS THE BEST LIFT/UPPER SUPPORT LIFT
NW AND N OF THE AREA...THE OVERALL PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF FEATURES
WILL BE SLOW. NEARLY ALL OF THE GUID IS IN THIS SLOWER CAMP EXCEPT
THE OPS GFS. DUE TO THIS...I WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE EURO AND GFS
ENSEMBLE GUID. THESE SLOWER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY W OF THE
CWA UNTIL LATE THU THEN PUSH IT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI AS A
DECENT S/W MOVES BY.
LATE MON INTO TUE A NICE WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AND
THAT FEATURE WILL PROVIDE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WARM ADV REALLY
GETS GOING AS PERSISTENT ASCENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS JUST TO OUR WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
MORE FOCUSED DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIP/CONVECTION BUT TIMING THOSE ARE VERY DIFFICULT. OUTSIDE OF
THOSE FEATURES...GENERAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TO MEASURE SOME
PRECIP FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE PERIODS. DUE TO THIS...HAVE USED A
BLEND OF THE PREV FORECAST AND LATEST GFS GUID POPS. BASICALLY I
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NW HALF WHICH IS IN-LINE WITH THE
EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.
AS FOR ANY STRONG/SVR ACTIVITY...THIS IS VERY TOUGH TO PINPOINT AT
THIS TIME...BUT I CAN SEE SOME POTENTIAL ON MAYBE 2 WINDOWS OF TIME.
THE FIRST WOULD BE ON TUE AS THE WARM FRONT REALLY EVOLVES OVER THE
AREA. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME AND POSSIBLE SOME SFC BASED IF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW CAN
DRAW NORTHWARD SOME MID/UPPER 60 DEWPTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND IF THE LEAD S/W CAN NOT LIFT NORTHWARD TOO
QUICKLY THEN THE ASCENT WILL BE PRETTY GOOD AS WELL. I WOULD STILL
LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR TWO BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS IN SUCH A
COMPLEX CASE. THE OTHER WINDOW MAY BE AROUND THU-THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER DECENT DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUR WAY. BY THIS TIME...THE SLOW
MOVING SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME CYCLOGENESIS WHICH MAY IN-TERN
HELP TO INTENSIFY THE UPPER FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY...RICH GULF
MOISTURE MAY BE AT THE DOOR STEP AND COULD SURGE INTO THE AREA
QUICKLY. AGAIN...A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS WILL HELP IRON THINGS OUT
SOME. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE HWO...BUT
WATCH CLOSELY.
AS FOR TEMPS...THESE ARE VERY TOUGH BUT I DID MAKE SOME ADJ.
BASICALLY FROM TUE-THU I WENT WITH A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP. FOLLOWING THE SLOWER EVOLUTION...I DIDN`T GO AS COOL
THU. GUID VALUES LOOKED GOOD FRI-SAT. /CME/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERIC AIR SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 22 TO 28 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20
MPH AT TIMES IN ALL AREAS, THIS WILL PRESENT AT LEAST A MARGINAL
FIRE WEATHER RISK. RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS HAS
MOISTENED FUELS ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RISK AND
THROUGH COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON RED FLAG WARNING FOR NOW. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY W/NW WIND
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE BY SUNSET. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. A FEW
PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR RIVER BEDS AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THESE WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 69 38 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 71 35 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 71 38 63 40 / 0 0 0 5
HATTIESBURG 73 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 70 39 65 42 / 0 0 0 4
GREENVILLE 66 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 5
GREENWOOD 65 35 59 37 / 0 0 0 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
50/07
000
FXUS64 KJAN 081016
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE AND IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FILTER IN A
COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WHICH WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT SUNNY
AFTERNOONS...AND COOL...AND FOR THE MOST PART...CLEAR NIGHTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO LOOK TO BEGIN
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...BUT LOOK FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR HIGHS I STAYED FAIRLY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. HOWEVER AFTER LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED BY THE MODELS AND COMPARING THEM TO LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY...I
DID ADJUST LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. /19/
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED MED
RANGE/LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON TAP THIS MORNING. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON DETAILS...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTS
TO SUPPORT A RATHER WET COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
BY MON-TUE...THE LARGE EASTERN/GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL LIFTED
FURTHER NE AND SOLID DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE W/SW
AND GENERALLY EVOLVE THE PATTERN TO ONE OF SW FLOW ALOFT AS A
GENERAL TROUGH AXIS WILL SETUP JUST TO OUR WEST. FALLING HEIGHTS TO
OUR WEST WILL HELP DEVELOP A LEE SIDE LOW AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE THAT
SFC FEATURE OVER THE S PLAINS. AS THE BEST LIFT/UPPER SUPPORT LIFT
NW AND N OF THE AREA...THE OVERALL PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF FEATURES
WILL BE SLOW. NEARLY ALL OF THE GUID IS IN THIS SLOWER CAMP EXCEPT
THE OPS GFS. DUE TO THIS...I WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE EURO AND GFS
ENSEMBLE GUID. THESE SLOWER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY W OF THE
CWA UNTIL LATE THU THEN PUSH IT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI AS A
DECENT S/W MOVES BY.
LATE MON INTO TUE A NICE WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AND
THAT FEATURE WILL PROVIDE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WARM ADV REALLY
GETS GOING AS PERSISTENT ASCENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS JUST TO OUR WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
MORE FOCUSED DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIP/CONVECTION BUT TIMING THOSE ARE VERY DIFFICULT. OUTSIDE OF
THOSE FEATURES...GENERAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TO MEASURE SOME
PRECIP FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE PERIODS. DUE TO THIS...HAVE USED A
BLEND OF THE PREV FORECAST AND LATEST GFS GUID POPS. BASICALLY I
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NW HALF WHICH IS IN-LINE WITH THE
EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.
AS FOR ANY STRONG/SVR ACTIVITY...THIS IS VERY TOUGH TO PINPOINT AT
THIS TIME...BUT I CAN SEE SOME POTENTIAL ON MAYBE 2 WINDOWS OF TIME.
THE FIRST WOULD BE ON TUE AS THE WARM FRONT REALLY EVOLVES OVER THE
AREA. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME AND POSSIBLE SOME SFC BASED IF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW CAN
DRAW NORTHWARD SOME MID/UPPER 60 DEWPTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND IF THE LEAD S/W CAN NOT LIFT NORTHWARD TOO
QUICKLY THEN THE ASCENT WILL BE PRETTY GOOD AS WELL. I WOULD STILL
LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR TWO BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS IN SUCH A
COMPLEX CASE. THE OTHER WINDOW MAY BE AROUND THU-THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER DECENT DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUR WAY. BY THIS TIME...THE SLOW
MOVING SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME CYCLOGENESIS WHICH MAY IN-TERN
HELP TO INTENSIFY THE UPPER FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY...RICH GULF
MOISTURE MAY BE AT THE DOOR STEP AND COULD SURGE INTO THE AREA
QUICKLY. AGAIN...A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS WILL HELP IRON THINGS OUT
SOME. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE HWO...BUT
WATCH CLOSELY.
AS FOR TEMPS...THESE ARE VERY TOUGH BUT I DID MAKE SOME ADJ.
BASICALLY FROM TUE-THU I WENT WITH A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP. FOLLOWING THE SLOWER EVOLUTION...I DIDN`T GO AS COOL
THU. GUID VALUES LOOKED GOOD FRI-SAT. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 69 38 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 70 35 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 70 38 63 40 / 0 0 0 5
HATTIESBURG 71 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 70 39 65 42 / 0 0 0 4
GREENVILLE 67 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 5
GREENWOOD 65 35 59 37 / 0 0 0 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
19/CME
000
FXUS64 KJAN 080306 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
905 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUDS HAVE LEFT
THE ARKLAMISS REGION. CURRENT TEMP FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH
LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. SO HAVE TAKEN OUT
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES./17/
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE CLOUD
COVER LINGERED LONGER IN THE DAY TO MAINTAIN MORE SOIL MOISTURE.
KMEI AND KHBG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
AFTER 06Z. FOG WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
/17/
&&
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...305 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...THE ECHOES CONTINUE TO DISAPPEAR ON THE RADAR AND THE
CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY BREAKING UP. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND
MAINTAINED THROUGH 00Z FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NOT LOOKING FOR
ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP AT THIS POINT. DRY AIR WAS ALREADY SETTLING
INTO THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF ANY MOISTURE. WILL GO WITH
CLEAR SKIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM. MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE MODELS AGREE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL LEAVE THE AREA CLEAR FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A COOL
BUT PLEASANT WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WAS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL MON/TUE.
MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN COOLER TODAY...BUT VALUES STILL SEEM A LITTLE
WARM. LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY
AIR WAS ALREADY HERE AND DEWPOINTS WERE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS NOT TOO MUCH
RAIN...SO SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWERED VALUES
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. 850 TEMPS SUGGEST THE NORTH
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY...SO LEANED CLOSER
TO CLIMATOLOGY. USED THE SAME REASONING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL BE BREEZY
SATURDAY. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE WINDS...BUT OPTED TO
LEAVE GUSTS OUT AT THIS POINT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE WERE A BIT OF
A GRADIENT...BUT WITH THE THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...THINKING THINGS MAY RELAX SOME BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION HENCE CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT AS WELL AS MOISTURE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE WORKING IT`S WAY ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION MONDAY AND TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN HAVE THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EUROPEAN HOWEVER ARE STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM`S SURFACE LOW...TIMING...AND PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...WHILE BOTH MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...THEY HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME IS THE GFS
CLEANLY BLOWS THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN
BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT A
COOLER DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EUROPEAN ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT NEVER REALLY PUSHES IT THROUGH AS
IT STALLS IT OVER THE AREA. THIS BASICALLY KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THEN AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY...IT DEVELOPS A PIECE OF ENERGY OVER EAST
TEXAS AND SENDS THIS PIECE OF ENERGY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS THE CASE WAS LAST NIGHT...GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...I`LL STICK CLOSE TO MEX
GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE TERM. /19/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF TODAY`S COLD FRONT. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AT SOME LOCATIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
IN THE 20S AT SOME SITES FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS FROM 10-15
KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO MIXING IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 40 70 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 38 70 36 63 / 8 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 40 71 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 41 74 39 66 / 9 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 41 70 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 38 67 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 38 66 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
7/3
000
FXUS64 KJAN 072105
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...THE ECHOES CONTINUE TO DISAPPEAR ON THE RADAR AND THE
CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY BREAKING UP. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND
MAINTAINED THROUGH 00Z FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NOT LOOKING FOR
ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP AT THIS POINT. DRY AIR WAS ALREADY SETTLING
INTO THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF ANY MOISTURE. WILL GO WITH
CLEAR SKIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM. MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE MODELS AGREE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL LEAVE THE AREA CLEAR FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A COOL
BUT PLEASANT WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WAS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL MON/TUE.
MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN COOLER TODAY...BUT VALUES STILL SEEM A LITTLE
WARM. LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY
AIR WAS ALREADY HERE AND DEWPOINTS WERE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS NOT TOO MUCH
RAIN...SO SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWERED VALUES
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. 850 TEMPS SUGGEST THE NORTH
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY...SO LEANED CLOSER
TO CLIMATOLOGY. USED THE SAME REASONING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL BE BREEZY
SATURDAY. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE WINDS...BUT OPTED TO
LEAVE GUSTS OUT AT THIS POINT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE WERE A BIT OF
A GRADIENT...BUT WITH THE THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...THINKING THINGS MAY RELAX SOME BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION HENCE CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT AS WELL AS MOISTURE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE WORKING IT`S WAY ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION MONDAY AND TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN HAVE THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EUROPEAN HOWEVER ARE STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM`S SURFACE LOW...TIMING...AND PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...WHILE BOTH MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...THEY HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME IS THE GFS
CLEANLY BLOWS THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN
BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT A
COOLER DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EUROPEAN ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT NEVER REALLY PUSHES IT THROUGH AS
IT STALLS IT OVER THE AREA. THIS BASICALLY KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THEN AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY...IT DEVELOPS A PIECE OF ENERGY OVER EAST
TEXAS AND SENDS THIS PIECE OF ENERGY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS THE CASE WAS LAST NIGHT...GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...I`LL STICK CLOSE TO MEX
GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE TERM. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCT...OCCASIONALLY BKN...DECKS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 5000FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE CLOUD COVER LINGERED LONGER IN
THE DAY TO MAINTAIN MORE SOIL MOISTURE. KMEI AND KHBG WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG AFTER 06Z. FOG WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF TODAY`S COLD FRONT. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AT SOME LOCATIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
IN THE 20S AT SOME SITES FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS FROM 10-15
KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO MIXING IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 40 70 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 38 70 36 63 / 8 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 40 71 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 41 74 39 66 / 9 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 41 70 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 38 67 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 38 66 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
7/3
000
FXUS64 KJAN 071719
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1119 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MAINLY TO
LOWER THE HIGHS FOR THE NORTHEAST...CLOUDS AND RAIN CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA...SO UPPER 60S MAY BE HARD TO REACH. THERE WAS AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE AREA OF RAIN WAS JUST
SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST...SO MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING. OTHERWISE...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT COVER AREAS EAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 3000FT BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR
DECKS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME ERN ZONES THROUGH 20Z. RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND WILL END AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY 22Z. CLEAR SKIES AND WNW WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE CWFA BY 00-03Z THIS EVENING./03/40/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 43 71 41 / 30 5 0 0
MERIDIAN 69 41 70 39 / 69 14 0 0
VICKSBURG 69 44 73 42 / 15 3 0 0
HATTIESBURG 71 42 74 41 / 72 17 0 0
NATCHEZ 69 43 74 42 / 25 3 0 0
GREENVILLE 69 43 69 39 / 6 4 0 0
GREENWOOD 67 43 69 38 / 9 4 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
7/3
000
FXUS64 KJAN 071304 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
704 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...CLEARING LINE ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY PUSHING EAST AT
ABOUT 15KTS THROUGH THE DELTA REGION AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS FOR TEMPS/POPS/SKY COVER FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED NEAR A COLUMBUS TO COLUMBIA LINE WITH BROKEN
BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.
UPDATES SHOULD BE AVAILABLE THROUGH THE USUAL CHANNELS AND THE
REST OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:/40/
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH MOST AREAS UNDER ONE HALF INCH...THE MAIN EXCEPTION
PROBABLY IN A BAND FROM LAKE PROVIDENCE TO ROLLING FORK TO WINONA
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES FELL.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEING
IN THE LOWER 60S WHILE COOLER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST WITH 50-55F
RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. WEAK CAA SHOULD PUT MOST HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 65-70F.
LOCAL AND SPC 4KM WRF RUNS SHOW THE SHRA/TSRA REMAINING RATHER
SCATTERED E OF THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING WITH RAPID DIMINISHING FROM
W TO E DURING 17-21Z. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR A KGTR-KMCB
LINE EXITS SERN MS BY 19Z OR SO FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES WITHIN
ABOUT 6-8 HOURS.
BY TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES COMPLETES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER
ERN MS WITH TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH WLY FLOW REGIME ALLOWS DECENT
RECOVERY IN TEMPS TO THE U60S-L70S AS SURFACE HIGH OF 1018MB MOVES
FROM TX TO JUST OFF THE LA COAST. /40/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...CLEAR...COOL...AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. CHANGES HOWEVER ARE RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER AS WE MOVE INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION HENCE CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT AS WELL AS MOISTURE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE WORKING IT`S WAY ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION MONDAY AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN HAVE THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EUROPEAN HOWEVER ARE STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM`S SURFACE LOW...TIMING...AND PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...WHILE BOTH MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...THEY HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME IS THE GFS
CLEANLY BLOWS THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN
BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT A
COOLER DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EUROPEAN ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT NEVER REALLY PUSHES IT THROUGH AS
IT STALLS IT OVER THE AREA. THIS BASICALLY KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THEN AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY...IT DEVELOPS A PIECE OF ENERGY OVER EAST
TEXAS AND SENDS THIS PIECE OF ENERGY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS THE CASE WAS LAST NIGHT...GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...I`LL STICK CLOSE TO MEX
GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE TERM. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND OCASSIONAL VISIBILITIES IN
SHRA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH STEADY IMPROVEMENTS FROM
W TO E THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TSRA E OF THE MS RIVER BEFORE 20Z COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. AFTER 20Z...VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS EVEN IN ERN MS LIFTING TO ABOVE 3K
FEET. CLEAR SKIES AND WNW WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CWFA
BY 00-03Z THIS EVENING./40/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 69 43 71 41 / 30 5 0 0
MERIDIAN 71 41 70 39 / 69 14 0 0
VICKSBURG 69 44 73 42 / 15 3 0 0
HATTIESBURG 74 42 74 41 / 72 17 0 0
NATCHEZ 70 43 74 42 / 25 3 0 0
GREENVILLE 68 43 69 39 / 6 4 0 0
GREENWOOD 68 43 69 38 / 9 4 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KJAN 070941
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPLITTING THE CWFA FROM NE TO SW AND PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST LOW CLOUD SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NEAR A MEMPHIS TO
RUSTON LINE PROGRESSING EWD AT 20KTS. BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/ ISOLATED
TSRA ALONG ABOUT 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY
WITH CELLS MOVING NE AT 25KTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH MOST AREAS UNDER ONE HALF INCH...THE MAIN EXCEPTION
PROBABLY IN A BAND FROM LAKE PROVIDENCE TO ROLLING FORK TO WINONA
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES FELL.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEING
IN THE LOWER 60S WHILE COOLER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST WITH 50-55F
RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. WEAK CAA SHOULD PUT MOST HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 65-70F.
LOCAL AND SPC 4KM WRF RUNS SHOW THE SHRA/TSRA REMAINING RATHER
SCATTERED E OF THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING WITH RAPID DIMINISHING FROM
W TO E DURING 17-21Z. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR A KGTR-KMCB
LINE EXITS SERN MS BY 19Z OR SO FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES WITHIN
ABOUT 6-8 HOURS.
BY TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES COMPLETES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER
ERN MS WITH TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH WLY FLOW REGIME ALLOWS DECENT
RECOVERY IN TEMPS TO THE U60S-L70S AS SURFACE HIGH OF 1018MB MOVES
FROM TX TO JUST OFF THE LA COAST. /40/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...CLEAR...COOL...AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. CHANGES HOWEVER ARE RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER AS WE MOVE INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION HENCE CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT AS WELL AS MOISTURE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE WORKING IT`S WAY ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION MONDAY AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN HAVE THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EUROPEAN HOWEVER ARE STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM`S SURFACE LOW...TIMING...AND PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...WHILE BOTH MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...THEY HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME IS THE GFS
CLEANLY BLOWS THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN
BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT A
COOLER DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EUROPEAN ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT NEVER REALLY PUSHES IT THROUGH AS
IT STALLS IT OVER THE AREA. THIS BASICALLY KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THEN AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY...IT DEVELOPS A PIECE OF ENERGY OVER EAST
TEXAS AND SENDS THIS PIECE OF ENERGY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS THE CASE WAS LAST NIGHT...GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...I`LL STICK CLOSE TO MEX
GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE TERM. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND OCASSIONAL VISIBILITIES IN
SHRA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH STEADY IMPROVEMENTS FROM
W TO E THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TSRA E OF THE MS RIVER BEFORE 20Z COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. AFTER 20Z...VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS EVEN IN ERN MS LIFTING TO ABOVE 3K
FEET. CLEAR SKIES AND WNW WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CWFA
BY 00-03Z THIS EVENING./40/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 69 43 71 41 / 46 5 0 0
MERIDIAN 71 41 70 39 / 72 14 0 0
VICKSBURG 69 44 73 42 / 22 3 0 0
HATTIESBURG 74 42 74 41 / 70 17 0 0
NATCHEZ 70 43 74 42 / 33 3 0 0
GREENVILLE 68 43 69 39 / 6 4 0 0
GREENWOOD 68 43 69 38 / 15 4 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
40/19/40
000
FXUS64 KJAN 070229 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
829 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008
.SHORT TERM...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE FOR THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
REGION...STRETCHED FROM JUST EAST OF GLH DOWN THROUGH JUST EAST OF
ESF. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM GRENADA TO AROUND WINNSBORO WHICH ARE
FORMING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO
POPS AND WX GRIDS. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
INCLUDING GLH WHERE THE FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED
THROUGH. HAVE LOWERED POPS DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE HAVE
REMAINED WITH THE GOING POPS AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED WX WORDING TO INCLUDE PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER AS IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. WILL ALSO BE SENDING AN UPDATED HWO TO REMOVE
STRONG TO SEVERE WORDING.
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN HAS NOT
REACHED HAVE BEEN FALLING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE
ADJUSTED LOWS IN A FEW LOCATIONS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE DROPPING OF TEMPERATURES WILL SLOW WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY AND BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT AND POSTED TO THE
WEB SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND
EVEN IFR FOR SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN SITES INCLUDING HBG AND MEI. THESE LOCATIONS MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE MORNING PATCHY FOG AS WELL. CEILING SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN
1000-2500 FT FOR THESE EASTERN SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE GLH AND GWO WHERE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD PREVAIL AT VFR WITH CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE
3K FT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO
ABOVE 3K FT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
LOCATED FROM GWO TO TVR WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAVE
EASTERN SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 61 71 41 72 / 88 61 7 0
MERIDIAN 60 71 41 71 / 68 73 16 0
VICKSBURG 59 69 41 72 / 85 24 3 0
HATTIESBURG 61 74 46 73 / 40 71 17 0
NATCHEZ 60 69 42 73 / 86 55 3 0
GREENVILLE 55 67 40 68 / 13 5 4 0
GREENWOOD 57 67 40 67 / 51 15 4 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
14
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