[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 082058
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S BAY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
EAST MAINTAINING A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND DOMINATE
THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FULL SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 10 HR AND 13 MIN BUT WE HAVEN`T SEEN
MUCH OF THAT IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THAT WILL END ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WILL GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM AS CLEARING
SET IN OVERNIGHT. THE SUN WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE EARLY THEN IT`LL
START TO CLOUD UP NORTHERN HALF OF CFA AS THE COLD AIR SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AT ANY TIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
CYCLONIC TO SPLIT TO DEEPENING MID WEST TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS WE WORK
THROUGH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIODS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND THE MID 40S SOUTH.
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOV 9TH.
HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH A DRYING WIND WILL BE 45 TO 50 NORTH AND MID
60S SOUTH. DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD KEEP A GOOD PART OF THE CFA IN
THE SUN EXCEPT FOR THE COOLER NORTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER LOW`S CONSOLIDATE OVER JAMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN A
PUSH EAST. SPLIT FLOW WITH THE RETREATING LOW AND A DEVELOPING
FAST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES. SLIVER OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLICES INTO THE CFA ON MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
INTO TUESDAY. AS YOU`LL SEE THE MARGIN BETWEEN FAIR WX AND NOT IS
A FINE ONE. THE AIR COOLS DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES TO 40 SOUTH AND EVEN COLDER FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. MEANWHILE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOW AND MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS AND WEAKEN. THE MOISTURE FROM IT WILL BE SWEPT UP
IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CARRIED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND BECOME A FULL LAT TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROUGH
BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY HIGH QPF`S IN THE DEEP SOUTH. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE HERE, RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGH BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME
PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH TO PRODUCE A
RICH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL REDUCE
THE QPF AMOUNTS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN THE CASE OVER A GOOD PART OF
THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW, VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE CFA AND THE SECONDARY MAX TO OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE LOW TURNS
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A CHANGE
IN THE TRACK EITHER WAY COULD MEAN VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR US BUT
WE`LL SEE WITH LATER RUNS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
COULD MEAN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO RAIN. VERY WARM 80H
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CFA WILL MEAN JUST RAIN FOR OUR FORECAST REGION.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
ABOVE INTO SATURDAY.
A WAY`S OFF, BUT FRIDAY COULD BE A STORMY DAY FOR REGION WITH 80H
WINDS OF 50 TO 65 KT.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AT MID AFTERNOON, AS THE
COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SLOWLY INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ACCEPTABLY
WELL, WITH THE GFS AND THE NAM ALMOST IDENTICAL ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING TO VFR FOR THE WESTERN TAF
SITES AS OF MID AFTERNOON, AND ANY IFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE EASTERNMOST SITE (KACY)
FOLLOWING SUIT AROUND OR A BIT AFTER DARK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
EAST, AND WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WEST, SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER
10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND DECREASE TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON THE SOUNDINGS THIS
EVENING, SO A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR DECK WAS KEPT THIS EVENING,
RISING AND THEN SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. THEN, MOS GUIDANCE,
SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY; THIS WAS SHOWN FOR KPHL IN THE 24 TO
30 HOUR RANGE OF THE TAF (THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE ONLY 24 HOUR TAFS,
VALID THROUGH 09/18Z).
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BUILD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND BE OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW HAD BUILT A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON...TO JUST UNDER 5 FEET AT BUOY 44009 (OK, IT ROUNDS
UP TO 5 FEET). HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, AND WITH THE ONSET OF OFFSHORE FLOW
CONDITIONS AND WITH ONLY A MODERATE GRADIENT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BUILD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND BE OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT FLOW MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK TO SWITCH TO A RETURN, AND
POSSIBLY AN ONSHORE, FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS SET UP, THIS COULD MEAN A FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH ENHANCED SEAS LATE THURSDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY (AND FRIDAY IS BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD). WAVEWATCH DOES
INDICATE SEAS UP TO 10 FEET FRIDAY, BUT THAT MAY BE EXAGGERATED
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR THURSDAY, WAVEWATCH SHOWS A REASONABLE 3
OR 4 FEET.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIXED BUT NO TIME FRAME WAS SET. IN THE
MEANTIME...YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS
AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
EQUIPMENT...EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 081745
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1245 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT MIDDAY,
AND WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING EASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT, SO THE LIKELY PROBABILITIES WILL BE SHIFTED
EASTWARD IN A QUICKIE UPDATE, AS WELL AS KEPT FOR A SHORTER
DURATION. OTHERWISE, JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE USED ELSEWHERE
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWER INTENSITIES HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE, LOTS OF CLOUDS, AND MAYBE A FEW BREAKS WEST, WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE (LOW) CLOUDS IN PLACE ALL DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING TOO WARM. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL PROBABLY
BE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WE GET SOME TEMPORARY MIXING OF THE
WARMER AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE MAV TEMPS LOOKED OK OR A BIT HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
I KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AS BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONT DOWN UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS OVER
NJ/DE. IF A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, WE COULD EVEN GET A LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FCST THAT.
DRY COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, IT LOOKS LIKE WILL WILL HOLD CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WE REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT WITH
CAA, A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
POCONOS. FARTHER SOUTH, DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO HIGH BASED OFF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEW GFS SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FCST SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS EVOLVE INTO
FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAINED IFR AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT LATE
MORNING AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE
SLOWLY THOUGH THE AREA. A SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINED AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME PLACES SPORTED MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS A RANGE OF VALUES WAS DISPLAYED.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES, THE IFR WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. THE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SHOWERS LIES IN
THE FACT THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE FRONT THE SAME WAY OR VERY
WELL AT ALL.
THE NAM HAS DRIED THE FRONT OUT WHERE AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WENT MORE WITH THE GFS
TIMING, SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES.
AFTER THIS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, HIGHER CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A LACK OF MIXING, AND THEREFORE CAUSE A LAG IN
CEILING IMPROVEMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT OFFICIALLY EXIT THE
REGION UNTIL THIS EVENING. WE HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, AS SOME SHOWERS MAY REMAIN.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, THEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN BOTH THE PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENTS THIS
AFTERNOON, TONIGHT, AND SUNDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE REGION,
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING.
AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MAY
INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. HOWEVER,
WITH THAT BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN
WE GET TO IT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIXED BUT NO TIME FRAME IS SET. IN THE
MEANTIME...YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS
AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../ STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER/KRUDZLO
AVIATION.../ MEOLA
MARINE.../ MEOLA
EQUIPMENT.../ EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 081630
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1130 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS OF LATE
MORNING, AND WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY, PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS AT MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, SO PROBABILITIES WERE BUMPED UP TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY EVERYWHERE. THE DRY SLOT TO THE WEST, WITH AN ATTENDANT
CLOUD-MINIMAL AREA AT LATE MORNING, WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SHRINKING
AS HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WERE APPROACHING. SO, MOSTLY CLOUDY
WILL BE FORECAST EVEN WHERE PROBABILITIES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES
DROP TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE (LOW) CLOUDS IN PLACE ALL DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING TOO WARM. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL PROBABLY
BE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WE GET SOME TEMPORARY MIXING OF THE
WARMER AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE MAV TEMPS LOOKED OK OR A BIT HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
I KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AS BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONT DOWN UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS OVER
NJ/DE. IF A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, WE COULD EVEN GET A LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FCST THAT.
DRY COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, IT LOOKS LIKE WILL WILL HOLD CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WE REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT WITH
CAA, A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
POCONOS. FARTHER SOUTH, DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO HIGH BASED OFF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEW GFS SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FCST SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS EVOLVE INTO
FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAINED IFR AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT LATE
MORNING AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE
SLOWLY THOUGH THE AREA. A SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINED AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME PLACES SPORTED MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS A RANGE OF VALUES WAS DISPLAYED.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES, THE IFR WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. THE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SHOWERS LIES IN
THE FACT THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE FRONT THE SAME WAY OR VERY
WELL AT ALL.
THE NAM HAS DRIED THE FRONT OUT WHERE AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WENT MORE WITH THE GFS
TIMING, SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES.
AFTER THIS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, HIGHER CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A LACK OF MIXING, AND THEREFORE CAUSE A LAG IN
CEILING IMPROVEMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT OFFICIALLY EXIT THE
REGION UNTIL THIS EVENING. WE HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, AS SOME SHOWERS MAY REMAIN.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, THEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN BOTH THE PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENTS THIS
AFTERNOON, TONIGHT, AND SUNDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE REGION,
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING.
AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MAY
INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. HOWEVER,
WITH THAT BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN
WE GET TO IT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIXED BUT NO TIME FRAME IS SET. IN THE
MEANTIME...YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS
AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../ STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER/KRUDZLO
AVIATION.../ MEOLA
MARINE.../ MEOLA
EQUIPMENT.../ EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 081142
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE CONSIDERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS HIGH AND THE AIRMASS SATURATED, SOME FOG
HAS FORMED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CLEARED YESTERDAY EVENING.
WITH A LIGHT S TO SE FLOW, SOME FOG WILL ALSO FORM OFF OF DELAWARE
AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS AS WELL AS FROM THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE, THERE
WERE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION OVERTOP OF THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK UNTIL FROPA. ALSO, ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
INTO THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WERE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS GEORGIA
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PA
AS EVIDENCED ON RADAR. AS THE FRONT HEADS EAST, THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT WEAKENS, BUT CONSIDERING
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS, I PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY
POPS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WHICH WILL BE CHC.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ALL DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING TOO WARM. THE HIGH TEMP TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WITH FROPA AS WE GET SOME TEMPORARY MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR DOWN
FROM ALOFT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
MAV TEMPS LOOK OK OR A BIT HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
I KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AS BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONT DOWN UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS OVER
NJ/DE. IF A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, WE COULD EVEN GET A LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FCST THAT.
DRY COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, IT LOOKS LIKE WILL WILL HOLD CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WE REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT WITH
CAA, A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
POCONOS. FARTHER SOUTH, DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO HIGH BASED OFF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEW GFS SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FCST SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS EVOLVE INTO
FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO CLIMB THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY KILG, KACY AND KMIV REMAINING IFR. A SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINS
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH
SHOWERS KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN DOORS, WE HAVE ADDED AT LEAST VCSH
INTO THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING/LATE MORNING HOURS, MOVING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REMAINING IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT. THE DIFFICULTY WITH THE
SHOWERS LIES IN THE FACT THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE FRONT THE
SAME WAY OR VERY WELL AT ALL.
THE NAM HAS DRIED THE FRONT OUT WHERE AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WENT MORE WITH THE GFS
TIMING, SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES. WE STARTED
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO KRDG AND KABE BY THE MORNING AND THEN
STAGGERED THE ARRIVAL SOUTH AND EAST, FINALLY REACHING KACY BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
CIRRUS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A LACK OF MIXING THEREFORE CAUSING A LAG IN CEILINGS
IMPROVEMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT OFFICIALLY EXIT THE REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. WE HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, AS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY REMAIN.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DOMINATES THE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH BUOY 44009 DROPPING TO
AROUND 3 FEET THIS MORNING AND BUOY 44065 DROPPED DOWN TO JUST BELOW
4 FEET. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE NO REASON TO ISSUE ANY SCA AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE REGION WE DO NOT EXPECT THE
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN SCA CRITERIA
FOR SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET BY THE END.
AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MAY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, WITH
THAT BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE GET
TO IT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME SET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU
CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT
WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER/KRUDZLO
AVIATION...MEOLA
MARINE...MEOLA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 080719
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
219 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE CONSIDERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS HIGH AND THE AIRMASS SATURATED, SOME FOG
HAS FORMED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CLEARED YESTERDAY EVENING.
WITH A LIGHT S TO SE FLOW, SOME FOG WILL ALSO FORM OFF OF DELAWARE
AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS AS WELL AS FROM THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE, THERE
WERE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION OVERTOP OF THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK UNTIL FROPA. ALSO, ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
INTO THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WERE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS GEORGIA
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PA
AS EVIDENCED ON RADAR. AS THE FRONT HEADS EAST, THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT WEAKENS, BUT CONSIDERING
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS, I PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY
POPS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WHICH WILL BE CHC.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ALL DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING TOO WARM. THE HIGH TEMP TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WITH FROPA AS WE GET SOME TEMPORARY MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR DOWN
FROM ALOFT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
MAV TEMPS LOOK OK OR A BIT HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
I KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AS BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONT DOWN UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS OVER
NJ/DE. IF A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, WE COULD EVEN GET A LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FCST THAT.
DRY COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, IT LOOKS LIKE WILL WILL HOLD CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WE REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT WITH
CAA, A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
POCONOS. FARTHER SOUTH, DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO HIGH BASED OFF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEW GFS SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FCST SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS EVOLVE INTO
FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DROP AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ALONG THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LOW CLOUDS (MAINLY IFR CEILINGS AT THIS
TIME) WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AS THE MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED OVER THE AREA AND THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SHOWERS LIES IN THE FACT THE
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE FRONT THE SAME WAY. THE NAM HAS DRIED
THE FRONT OUT WHERE AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WENT MORE WITH THE GFS TIMING, SUPPORTED BY THE
FACT THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES. WE STARTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO KRDG
AND KABE BY THE MORNING AND THEN STAGGERED THE ARRIVAL SOUTH AND
EAST, FINALLY REACHING KACY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CIRRUS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LACK OF MIXING
THEREFORE CAUSING A LAG IN CEILINGS IMPROVEMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
NOT OFFICIALLY EXIT THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AT THAT TIME BUT WE HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS
TIME AS WE ARE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AND MAY NEED TO READDRESS IT WITH THE 12Z TAF.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DOMINATES THE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH BUOY 44009 DROPPING TO
AROUND 3 FEET THIS MORNING AND BUOY 44065 DROPPED DOWN TO JUST BELOW
4 FEET. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE NO REASON TO ISSUE ANY SCA AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE REGION WE DO NOT EXPECT THE
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN SCA CRITERIA
FOR SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET BY THE END.
AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MAY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, WITH
THAT BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE GET
TO IT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME SET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU
CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT
WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...MEOLA
MARINE...MEOLA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 080112
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
800 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER OFF THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN
PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ZONES, AFM, PFM UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY CONDITIONS AND FOG.
MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
REFORM IN PLACES WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH DAYBREAK, WE`VE INCLUDED
THE MENTION OF FOG. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT, BUT WE
WOULD LIKE TO SEE A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER.
WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND OR THE HIGH DEW POINTS, TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, SOME OF OUR LOWS WILL
ONLY FALL BACK TO "NORMAL HIGH" LEVELS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT, I THREW IN A 20
POP FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DIDN`T SEE A NEED TO ADJUST SATURDAY`S POPS TOO MUCH. I`LL CONTINUE
TO PAINT LIKELIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES WITH CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT WE SHOULD TYPICALLY SEE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS, THE ECMWF, AND
THERE ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN GENERAL, WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
CONUS EVOLVE INTO FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. NOT TOO MANY CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY
TO THE WEST OF OUR TERMINAL AREA AND ITS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING E. WE
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS EVENING AWAY FROM KACY AND KMIV AS
IT LOOKS WE MIGHT LOSE OUR MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WE NEVER FCST THE
LOSS OF MVFR CIGS AT KACY AND KMIV BECAUSE OF THE WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR CIG) WILL REFORM
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE
CLOUDS WILL FORM AND PREVENT IFR FOG OR IF THE IFR FOG WILL FORM
FIRST AND THEN A LOW STRATUS CIG WILL BUILD UP AND SPREAD FROM
THERE. WE BELIEVE EACH SCENARIO IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL OCCUR AFTER
THE EVENING FLIGHTS ARE DONE AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE OF THIS IN LATER AMENDMENTS AND OR THE 06Z TAFS. IFR OR
BORDERLINE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT CDFNT DEVELOPS. THIS
SHOULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AROUND MID
MORNING. THE SHOWER TIMING IS BASED ON A GFS AND WRF MODEL
COMPROMISE. AFTER THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH, CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL WAIT FOR AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO PASS AND PROBABLY NOT MOVE THROUGH TIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A SECOND SHOT OF SHRAS THEN, BUT
CHANCES RIGHT NOW ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THR KPHL TAF.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WON`T HAVE MUCH WEATHER WITH IT FOR US, THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BE FRESH AND MUCH COLDER AS OUR 850MB TEMPS DROP
FROM 10C TO -2 TO -3C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE AND VFR.
HERE IS THE FRZG LVL DATA FOR PHL/IPT.
08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00
PHL 12925 12220 11460 09595 09235 06580 04160 03990 04080
IPT 11850 11715 09295 08395 05865 02890 000// 03480 02680
FIRST THREE FIGURES ARE THE FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT AND THE OTHER TWO
ARE THE RELATIVE AT THE FREEZING LVL.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO JAMES BAY CANADA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DOMINATES THE WX THROUGH THURSDAY.
NOTE: THE KPHL AND KILG METARS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. NO WORD HAS BEEN RECEIVED AS TO WHETHER THE PROBLEM
HAS BEEN PERMANENTLY FIXED.
&&
.MARINE...
QUICKSCAT WINDS SHOWS THE WIND PROFILE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEARLY 300 SM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN AND MOVING AWAY. I
ENCOURAGE MARINERS TO LOOK AT THESE WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SEE
EQUIPMENT SECTION TO SEE WHERE TO GET THEM. THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT IT VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SEAS AT THE AMBROSE PLATFORM (44065) AND BUOY 44009 ARE 4
OR 5 FT WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
NO FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME AND NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH A 24 HOUR PERIOD. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BUT THE AIR ALOFT IS
WARM AND MAY NOT MIX THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER
THEY WILL STILL BE GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RUSH TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT RAISED FOR POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
FOR PART OF SUNDAY FOR THE WINDS. THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THE FRONT PASSES BUT WIND WAVES WILL BE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO GIVE US A COMBINED SEA
STATE NEARING 5 FT.
CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED OFFSHORE WITH NO GALES IN EFFECT FOR
THE CANYONS.
A BROAD CYCLONIC(OFFSHORE FLOW) WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THE RECORD...THE LAST WIND EVENT OR GALE WARNING WE HAD IS NOW
THE 31ST TIME GALES HAVE BEEN RAISED SINCE OCT 11, 2007. A PRETTY
ACTIVE YEAR ON THE WATER INDEED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME SET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU
CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT
WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/EBERWINE
MARINE...EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 072323
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST
IN SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS REMAINED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. IN GENERAL, WE SEE LITTLE CHANGE FOR TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH DAYBREAK, I`VE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
FOG. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT, BUT WE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER.
WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, SOME OF OUR LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK
TO "NORMAL HIGH" LEVELS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT, I THREW IN A 20
POP FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DIDN`T SEE A NEED TO ADJUST SATURDAY`S POPS TOO MUCH. I`LL CONTINUE
TO PAINT LIKELIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES WITH CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT WE SHOULD TYPICALLY SEE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS, THE ECMWF, AND
THERE ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN GENERAL, WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
CONUS EVOLVE INTO FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. NOT TOO MANY CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY
TO THE WEST OF OUR TERMINAL AREA AND ITS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING E. WE
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS EVENING AWAY FROM KACY AND KMIV AS
IT LOOKS WE MIGHT LOSE OUR MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WE NEVER FCST THE
LOSS OF MVFR CIGS AT KACY AND KMIV BECAUSE OF THE WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR CIG) WILL REFORM
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE
CLOUDS WILL FORM AND PREVENT IFR FOG OR IF THE IFR FOG WILL FORM
FIRST AND THEN A LOW STRATUS CIG WILL BUILD UP AND SPREAD FROM
THERE. WE BELIEVE EACH SCENARIO IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL OCCUR AFTER
THE EVENING FLIGHTS ARE DONE AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE OF THIS IN LATER AMENDMENTS AND OR THE 06Z TAFS. IFR OR
BORDERLINE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT CDFNT DEVELOPS. THIS
SHOULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AROUND MID
MORNING. THE SHOWER TIMING IS BASED ON A GFS AND WRF MODEL
COMPROMISE. AFTER THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH, CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL WAIT FOR AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO PASS AND PROBABLY NOT MOVE THROUGH TIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A SECOND SHOT OF SHRAS THEN, BUT
CHANCES RIGHT NOW ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THR KPHL TAF.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WON`T HAVE MUCH WEATHER WITH IT FOR US, THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BE FRESH AND MUCH COLDER AS OUR 850MB TEMPS DROP
FROM 10C TO -2 TO -3C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE AND VFR.
HERE IS THE FRZG LVL DATA FOR PHL/IPT.
08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00
PHL 12925 12220 11460 09595 09235 06580 04160 03990 04080
IPT 11850 11715 09295 08395 05865 02890 000// 03480 02680
FIRST THREE FIGURES ARE THE FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT AND THE OTHER TWO
ARE THE RELATIVE AT THE FREEZING LVL.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO JAMES BAY CANADA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DOMINATES THE WX THROUGH THURSDAY.
NOTE: THE KPHL AND KILG METARS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. NO WORD HAS BEEN RECEIVED AS TO WHETHER THE PROBLEM
HAS BEEN PERMANENTLY FIXED.
&&
.MARINE...
QUICKSCAT WINDS SHOWS THE WIND PROFILE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEARLY 300 SM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN AND MOVING AWAY. I
ENCOURAGE MARINERS TO LOOK AT THESE WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SEE
EQUIPMENT SECTION TO SEE WHERE TO GET THEM. THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT IT VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SEAS AT THE AMBROSE PLATFORM (44065) AND BUOY 44009 ARE
AROUND 5 FT WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
NO FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME AND NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH A 24 HOUR PERIOD. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BUT THE AIR ALOFT IS
WARM AND MAY NOT MIX THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER
THEY WILL STILL BE GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RUSH TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT RAISED FOR POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
FOR PART OF SUNDAY FOR THE WINDS. THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THE FRONT PASSES BUT WIND WAVES WILL BE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO GIVE US A COMBINED SEA
STATE NEARING 5 FT.
CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED OFFSHORE WITH NO GALES IN EFFECT FOR
THE CANYONS.
A BROAD CYCLONIC(OFFSHORE FLOW) WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THE RECORD...THE LAST WIND EVENT OR GALE WARNING WE HAD IS NOW
THE 31ST TIME GALES HAVE BEEN RAISED SINCE OCT 11, 2007. A PRETTY
ACTIVE YEAR ON THE WATER INDEED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME SET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU
CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT
WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/EBERWINE
MARINE...EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 072038
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST
IN SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS REMAINED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. IN GENERAL, WE SEE LITTLE CHANGE FOR TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH DAYBREAK, I`VE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
FOG. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT, BUT WE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER.
WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, SOME OF OUR LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK
TO "NORMAL HIGH" LEVELS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT, I THREW IN A 20
POP FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DIDN`T SEE A NEED TO ADJUST SATURDAY`S POPS TOO MUCH. I`LL CONTINUE
TO PAINT LIKELIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES WITH CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT WE SHOULD TYPICALLY SEE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS, THE ECMWF, AND
THERE ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN GENERAL, WE`LL SEE A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
CONUS EVOLVE INTO FULLY PHASED MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REAFFIRM ITSELF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AS THE MEAN TROF STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND, I INSERTED SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES SEEM LIKE A WORLD AWAY BUT ARE ONLY A STATE AWAY. EAST
OF THE DELAWARE RIVER THE CIGS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE BUT A FEW BINOVC`S OCCURRING FROM PHL-ILG AND WEST THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TAKE THE CIGS DOWN TO IFR
AGAIN(ALREADY AT ACY OVC008)SEVERAL HOURS AFTER DARK. LIFR
CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z AND 13 OR 14Z. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW WILL FINALLY BURN OFF TOMORROW AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. BUT, THERE IS A HUGH SFC LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WE WON`T EXPERIENCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WX WITH
THE LOW BUT IT`S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SOMETIME
SATURDAY EVENING. JUST AS WE SHED THE DANK WX OF THE PAST FEW DAYS,
WE GET A SMALL WINDOW FOR VFR FLYING BEFORE AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
KRDG/KABE SEEING LIKELY SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY THEN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT OTHER LOCATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ALL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WON`T HAVE MUCH WEATHER WITH IT FOR US, THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BE FRESH AND MUCH COLDER AS OUR 850MB TEMPS DROP
FROM 10C TO -2 TO -3C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE AND VFR.
HERE IS THE FRZG LVL DATA FOR PHL/IPT.
08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00
PHL 12925 12220 11460 09595 09235 06580 04160 03990 04080
IPT 11850 11715 09295 08395 05865 02890 000// 03480 02680
FIRST THREE FIGURES ARE THE FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT AND THE OTHER TWO
ARE THE RELATIVE AT THE FREEZING LVL.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO JAMES BAY CANADA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DOMINATES THE WX THROUGH THURSDAY.
NOTE:THERE IS A PROBLEM WITH THE METERS AT PHL AND ILG. THERE ARE
BEING SENT TWICE A MINUTE APART. ONE OB WILL HAVE THE CIG WITH IT
THE OTHER WILL NOT. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO IDENTIFY THE PROBLEM BUT
WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RETURN TO NORMAL METER SEQUENCING UNTIL
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
QUICKSCAT WINDS SHOWS THE WIND PROFILE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEARLY 300 SM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN AND MOVING AWAY. I
ENCOURAGE MARINERS TO LOOK AT THESE WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SEE
EQUIPMENT SECTION TO SEE WHERE TO GET THEM. THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT IT VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SEAS AT THE AMBROSE PLATFORM (44065) AND BUOY 44009 ARE
AROUND 5 FT WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
NO FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME AND NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH A 24 HOUR PERIOD. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BUT THE AIR ALOFT IS
WARM AND MAY NOT MIX THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER
THEY WILL STILL BE GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RUSH TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT RAISED FOR POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
FOR PART OF SUNDAY FOR THE WINDS. THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THE FRONT PASSES BUT WIND WAVES WILL BE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO GIVE US A COMBINED SEA
STATE NEARING 5 FT.
CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED OFFSHORE WITH NO GALES IN EFFECT FOR
THE CANYONS.
A BROAD CYCLONIC(OFFSHORE FLOW) WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THE RECORD...THE LAST WIND EVENT OR GALE WARNING WE HAD IS NOW
THE 31ST TIME GALES HAVE BEEN RAISED SINCE OCT 11, 2007. A PRETTY
ACTIVE YEAR ON THE WATER INDEED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE REDUNDANT WIND SENSORS HAVE FAILED ON BUOY 44009. THE BUOY IS ON
THE SCHEDULE TO GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME SET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU
CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT
WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO
WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...EBERWINE
MARINE...EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 071621 AAA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1121 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY OFFSHORE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING TOWARD OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS TIME YESTERDAY THE LOW WAS 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE AND TODAY IT IS ABOUT 285 EAST SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL
MARINE AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT SOME BRIGHTENING UP TO THE
WEST IS OCCURRING AS WESTERN EDGE ERODES AWAY. MAV TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY OK CONSIDERING THE HIGH OVERNIGHT LOWS, EVEN THOUGH
WE WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING
ALOFT. HOWEVER, SINCE THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS STILL QUITE
MOIST SO LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AFTER DARK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THIS FRONT SHOULD
SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SEASONABLY COOL AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AS WE DEVELOP COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS MEANS WE
WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION TYPE STRATOCU DEVELOP. HOWEVER, NO PCPN IS
FCST WITH THIS FLOW AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAV TEMPS WERE GENERALLY OK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS
SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING THE REGION THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN. THE GFS H8 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES INDICATE ANY PCPN SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST AS YESTERDAY, EAST OF THE RIVER IS IFR DUE TO CIGS AND WEST
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS OCCURRING. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS OPEN UP EVEN
MORE SINCE THE TOPS OF THE MARINE LAYER IS ONLY A COUPLE THOUSAND
FEET UP. VSBY`S ARE NO PROBLEM AND LITTLE IF ANY DRIZZLE REMAINS.
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
MIXING TO LIFT THE CIGS UP FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THIS SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AND ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN. WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE FAIR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE LOWERED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE OCEAN. NINE SECOND 6
FOOTERS ARE STILL BE REPORTED AT 44009 BUT WILL BE COMING DOWN AND
THE NEW AMBROSE PLATFORM IS UNDER 5 FEET. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN SO.
LOW PRESSURE IS 285 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
AND WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE. WAVES ON THE
BEACHES ARE UNDER 3 FEET MOST AREAS. THE SURF HAS CALMED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WINDS COULD
INCREASE, AS WELL AS SEAS, BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP FAIR BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WIND DIRECTION ON BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN OUT SINCE AUGUST 9TH AND
THE SPEED FAILED AT 1 AM THURSDAY. THE BUOY IS ON THE SCHEDULE TO
GET FIX BUT NO TIME FRAME YET. IN THE MEANTIME...YOU CAN GET AN IDEA
OF THE WINDS BY CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV
AND NAVIGATE TO PORTS DATA. ALSO WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB
SITE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER/EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...STAUBER/EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/EBERWINE
MARINE...ROBERTSON/EBERWINE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 070726
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
226 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE AREA THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND OFF THE COAST TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE LEFTOVER CIRCULATION FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS KEPT VERY MOIST
AIR OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG HAS FORMED, I KEPT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN THERE IS EVIDENCE OF SOME DRYING LATE IN THE
DAY THAT SHOULD ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MAV TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY OK CONSIDERING THE HIGH OVERNIGHT LOWS, EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING
ALOFT. HOWEVER, SINCE THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS STILL QUITE
MOIST SO LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AFTER DARK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THIS FRONT SHOULD
SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SEASONABLY COOL AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AS WE DEVELOP COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS MEANS WE
WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION TYPE STRATOCU DEVELOP. HOWEVER, NO PCPN IS
FCST WITH THIS FLOW AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAV TEMPS WERE GENERALLY OK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS
SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH
WEDNESAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING THE REGION THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN. THE GFS H8 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES INDICATE ANY PCPN SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS, ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE, PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE HELD STRONG IN MOST PLACES,
REMAINING ABOVE 6 SM AT A MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. SOME SITES COULD
SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING, BUT ALL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
VSBYS BY MID-DAY. BEING THAT IT IS MID-NOVEMBER, IT WILL BE HARD TO
GET RID OF THE CLOUDS HOWEVER SINCE THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOWER
EVERY DAY. FOR THIS REASON, WE MAINTAIN LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY, WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO LIFT THE CIGS UP FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD
NOT LAST TOO LONG AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ONCE AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET AND ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE FAIR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
OUT TO SEA TODAY. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY, BUT
WE WILL SEE SOME ELEVATED SEAS AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT, SO WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WINDS COULD INCREASE, AS WELL
AS SEAS, BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN
CASE THINGS CHANGE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FAIR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE AND OFFSHORE SEAS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO 9 FT AT
44009 BY 2 AM. ALSO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED AS
WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND THE GAGES IN THE BACK BAYS INDICATE THAT
THE HIGH WATERS FROM THE PREVIOUS TIDES HAVE COME DOWN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WIND DIRECTION ON BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN OUT SINCE AUGUST 9TH AND
TODAY THE WIND SPEED FAILED AT 1 AM TODAY AS THE WINDS WERE INCHING
UP TOWARD 40 KNOT GUSTS. YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY
CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO
PORTS DATA. ALSO WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...ROBERTSON
MARINE...ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAUBER
000
FXUS61 KPHI 070003
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
705 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM JUST EAST OF DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM THEN DRIFTS TO THE EAST THEN
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY,
WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING TOWARD OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATER TUESDAY, WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CENTER. THIS STORM CERTAINLY HAS AN INTERESTING LOOK TO
IT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH SEVERAL BANDS SPIRALING
AROUND THE CENTER. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH A BLIZZARD ONGOING IN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS. A
SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN
TEXAS. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCK PATTERN
WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS AND A SMALLER ONE NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW CIRCULATING
AROUND THIS STORM WILL MAINTAIN PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WHILE THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS OVER WITH AS THE STORM
SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS, WE WILL STILL HAVE TIMES OF MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN. WE HELD ONTO THE HIGH POPS FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH ABOUT
23Z, THEN TAPERED THEM DOWN. SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN BANDS
CONTINUE TO WRAP TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS ATTM, ALTHOUGH THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY DO SO.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON HOW THESE WILL BEHAVE THROUGH THE
EVENING THEREFORE WE WILL CARRY AT LEAST CHC POPS AFTER ABOUT 00Z
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE /HIGHEST POPS EAST/.
GIVEN THE WEALTH OF MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A LOWER CLOUD
DECK AND LESSENING LIFT, WE SHOULD ALSO SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALSO, SOME FOG IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE MAY BE STRATUS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE OVERALL WIND FIELD WEAKENS. WE WILL
HOLD ONTO THE GUSTINESS THOUGH FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. AS A
SIDE NOTE, A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /PNS/ WAS ISSUED LATE
THIS MORNING LISTING SOME PEAK WIND GUSTS THAT WERE OBSERVED.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MOS GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED AS THEY ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR MOST LOCALES GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MEANDERING COASTAL STORM WILL GRADUALLY BE SLIDING AWAY FROM THE
AREA FRIDAY AS THE BLOCKY PATTERN BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF
MOVEMENT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR FRIDAY IS HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE DO WE ACTUALLY SEE. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM ABOVE, HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE COASTAL STORM /ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LINGER A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AROUND
MOST OF THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS, SOME DRIZZLE
AND PERHAPS FOG FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY,
MID LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY
BACKS AROUND TO THE WEST THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR PUSH TO REALLY ERODE ALL THE CLOUDS,
THEREFORE WE JUST INDICATED SOME CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE +8C TO +10C RANGE
WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +14C. IF WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE,
THE AIRMASS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER OFFERED BY THE GUIDANCE, MOS NUMBERS ARE
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. WE WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY CLOSELY, HOWEVER NOTE
THAT THE CLOUDS MAY TEND TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN SOME THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO OUR WEST AS THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN
PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS, SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY, THEN TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATER SATURDAY. THIS WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE ORGANIZED
LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT IS TIED TO THE FRONTAL FEATURE ITSELF,
THEREFORE WE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THE POPS SOME. SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE LIMITED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF WE GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY, SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND
MIDLEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, WE DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER ATTM.
THE BEST LIFT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES,
THEREFORE WE CARRIED HIGHER POPS HERE WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND
EAST.
THE COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CAA KICKING IN. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST,
COUPLED WITH INCREASING CAA AND A SHORT WAVE, A FEW CHILLY RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHC POP IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BEGIN WITH A DOMINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING, ALLOWING CHILLY AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHERE WE
GO FROM HERE MAINLY HINGES ON THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS THE
WEST. THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH THE
TROUGH LIFTING OUT IN THE EAST WITH SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING. ENERGY
ORIGINATING FROM THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER LATER IN THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS IS TRICKY.
THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FASTER AND WEAKER, WHILE THE ECMWF
AND ECMWF MEAN /VIA HPC/ IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS THEN PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLY MORE SUPPORT FOR THE SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION
GIVEN BY THE CANADIAN, CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND UKMET ALONG WITH
MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. MEANWHILE THE FASTER AND WEAKER
SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONLY SUPPORTED BY ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. GIVEN THE RECENT SUPPORT OF THE ECMWF AND OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR SEVERAL CYCLES NOW, HPC HAS
GONE WITH THE SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTIONS, BUT NOT ENTIRELY
TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF /WHICH IS STILL NEAR THE SLOW SIDE OF
THE MULTI-MODEL SPREAD/. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP CAN BE TRICKY AS
TROUGHS IN THE WEST TEND TO BE KICKED EASTWARD TO QUICKLY BY MANY
OF THE COMPUTER MODELS. AS THIS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CHANGES THOUGH,
WE GET UNDER A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD TEND
TO ALLOW A CONDUIT FOR GATHERING MOISTURE TO TRAVEL ALONG. HPC WENT
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF FOR SUNDAY, AND AN
EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY, ESPECIALLY ON
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION AND LOCAL AFFECTS.
BASED ON THE ABOVE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE WELL OFF THE
COAST ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD
IN. WE WILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOME CHANNELIZED VORTICITY
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BE CONFINED TO AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES OVER OUR AREA LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO THE WEST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD.
THIS COULD WEAKEN, HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS MAY BE WEAKENING IT
A BIT TO FAST GIVEN THAT IT COULD BE MORE AMPLIFIED TO START. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD IMPLY SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY. SINCE WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION, WE WILL
HOLD PRECIPITATION OFF SOME MORE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WE MAY SEE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH
PERHAPS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT SEEMS
LIKE A THEME OF COASTAL STORMS SO FAR THIS SEASON HAS BEEN THE
CASE. ALSO, SOME HINTS AT A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PARKS ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH IF STRONG ENOUGH, COULD LEAD TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS WITH THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SHOT.
THIS COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE BAROCLINICITY TIGHTENS UP. THE STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST COULD THEN GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TRIES TO UNDERCUT THE HIGH. WE WILL
COVER THE ABOVE SYSTEM WITH CHC POPS AND UTILIZED A STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION DESCRIPTION SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVERRUNNING.
THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE
COLLABORATION TODAY. HAVE A GOOD ONE!
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT HAS BEEN A NIGHTMARE FOR VFR PILOTS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. CEILINGS ON THIS SIDE OF THE DELAWARE ARE MAINLY IFR
AND SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND GOOD VFR WELL TO THE WEST. THE LOW IS
SPINNING AROUND ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DELAWARE COAST
AND WILL BE WITH US UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND IS
LOCATED ALONG COASTAL DELAWARE INTO CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ. THE BANDS
CONTINUE OFFSHORE UNTIL YOU REACH THE CENTER OF THE STORM. MUCH LIKE
WHAT YOU WOULD FIND IN A T.S. THERE IS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN, PALOMA, LOCATED 210 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS NOV 30TH.
OVERNIGHT CEILINGS ARE GOING TO DROP WELL BELOW IFR, ON THE DECK IN
SOME CASES, BEFORE A GRADUAL CLEARING SETS IN AFTER MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ENDING AS THE LOW TRACKS VERY SLOWLY OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE QPF AMOUNTS WILL LOOK FAIRLY HEAVY IN CENTRAL PA AND
INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHICH WILL ALSO MEAN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAST WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKING OFF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OUR FOURTH COASTAL STORM SINCE OCTOBER 18TH IS MOVING AT A SNAILS
PACE. IT IS LOCATED 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HENLOPEN AND WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS WELL INTO FRIDAY. AFTER SEAS ROSE TO 19 FEET AT 1
AM TODAY...SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO UNDER 10 FEET IN LONG PERIOD 10
SECOND SWELLS. THE WIND DIRECTION ON BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN OUT SINCE
AUGUST 9TH AND TODAY THE WIND SPEED FAILED AT 1 AM TODAY AS THE
WINDS WERE ON THEIR WAY TO 40 KNOT GUSTS. HOWEVER, 444009 REMAINS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WINDS ARE BLOWING FROM THE
NORTH NORTHEAST AT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS JUDGING
FROM SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS AND QUICKSCAT FROM ON SATELLITE DATA.
TO GET THE WINDS YOU CAN CHECK WITH NOAA PORTS DATA AND ALSO GO TO
THE BUOY WEB SITE FOR THE QUICK SCAT WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS
HAVE DECREASED AND A FURTHER DECREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. SCA WILL REMAIN UP FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING TO
THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT OUR WAY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTING IN
THAT MAY PRODUCE A FRESH WEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH A FAST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND UP TO 20
KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL THE NEXT HIGH TIDE.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT IN FLOOD TIDE BASED ON LUNAR OCCURRENCE...THE
HEAVY WAVES AT THE SHORE ARE NOT ALLOWING THE BACK BAYS TO DRAIN AND
CONSEQUENTLY SOME AREAS MAY SEE WATER RISE AT THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.
HIGH TIDE FOR MANY AREAS OCCURS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ON THE OCEAN FRONT...WAVE ACTION IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION AND IS CERTAINLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYONE THINKING ABOUT GOING IN THE OCEAN. WITH EROSION A CONCERN THE
HIGH SURF IS TO ALERT YOU TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WAVE BREAKING OVER
SEAWALLS AND DUNES AND FLOODING AREAS THAT ARE MORE VULNERABLE
BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF PROTECTION.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WIND DIRECTION ON BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN OUT SINCE AUGUST 9TH AND
TODAY THE WIND SPEED FAILED AT 1 AM TODAY AS THE WINDS WERE INCHING
UP TOWARD 40 KNOT GUSTS. YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF THE WINDS BY
CHECKING NOAA PORTS AT WWW.TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV AND NAVIGATE TO
PORTS DATA. ALSO WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV OR OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GORSE/HPC
AVIATION...EBERWINE
MARINE...EBERWINE/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EBERWINE
EQUIPMENT...EBERWINE
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