Office: JKL

FXUS63 KJKL 241754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
154 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF LOCAL WEATHER. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TARGET AND ONLY PLAN A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS.
DEWPOINTS WERE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST AT 13Z..BUT EXPECT
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER TO FORECAST VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT 13Z WERE RUNNING CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THE SAME TIME. EVEN SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REACH FORECAST MAX LEVELS...WHICH ARE GENERALLY HIGHER
THAN MOS FORECAST VALUES. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARMER THAN MOS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. HOWEVER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND YESTERDAY/S HIGHS
WILL LEAVE MAX TEMP FORECAST AS IT IS.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE PERIODS OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY CLOSING OFF NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FOLLOWING. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATTERN
OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE WRF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING IT WESTWARD...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF LESS
AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WHICH BRING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. OPTED TO USE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN PIKE COUNTY LATE
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CREEP WESTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS A
LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE TO START THE PERIOD...BUT CLOSER TO GUIDANCE AT
THE END AS CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP INCREASE. FOR MINS...AN
AVERAGE OF MOS GUIDANCE AT JKL SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIDGES.
FOR VALLEYS...THE FIRST NIGHT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 35 TO 40 DEGREE
DROP...ABOUT THE MAXIMUM THAT WE SEE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION. VALLEY TEMP DROP ON THE SECOND NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE A
LITTLE LESS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...ECMWF RATHER THAN THE NAM. NAM BRINGS THE ATLANTIC COAST
SYSTEM FURTHER WEST WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK. NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TRACK OF SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. DECREASE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE SOME LOCALIZED IFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOZ AND SME MAY HAVE 1 HOUR OR
LESS OF MVFR FOG SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL/SBH
LONG TERM....PARKER-WFO ILN
AVIATION...SBH





Office: LMK

FXUS63 KLMK 241700
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

TODAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ONCE AGAIN. GOOD MIXING TO PROVIDE ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH A
PERIOD OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH WHERE
THEY DO OCCUR. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A
ZONAL JET STREAM ALIGNED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER. A CUTOFF LOW
WITH SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW MAY BE FUELED IN PART WITH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND
WILL FORM PART OF A REX BLOCK AS STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE NEW
ENGLAND.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOW WILL
RETROGRADE...MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS FORECAST THIS
VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE AND 500MB LOW NEAR WEST VIRGINIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEASTERN SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THE PROXIMITY
OF THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OR WESTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULDN'T RISE MUCH FRIDAY
WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN 20
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL COOL SOME COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
SHOULD CLOUD COVER PROVE THICK AND PERSISTENT...HIGHS MAY ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

EARLY SATURDAY WILL MARK THE WESTERN MOST INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN CUTOFF LOW. A FLAT AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT THIS LOW NORTH
AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CLEARING TREND SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH PRACTICALLY NO AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE
ONLY A SLIGHT INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

A STRONG TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DISTINCTLY COOLER...MORE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS (CLR SKIES) TO THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10K DURG
THE AFTN...BECOMING VERY LIGHT TNGT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....DK








Office: PAH

FXUS63 KPAH 241123
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2008

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION PACKAGE

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUDS...OR THE LACK THEREOF.

AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING OUR CWA IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SO IT SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT ON OUR AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE HEARTLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVENT THE
SYSTEM FROM MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. HOWEVER...ON
SATURDAY AS A VORTEX DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE EAST. THE END RESULT FROM ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP (SCHC) CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST IS NEXT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...AND EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...EXPECT P6SM SKC THROUGH THE DAY.  EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5KTS WILL GO CALM AFTER 01Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC....JAP
AVIATION..RST