[top]
000
FXUS66 KMTR 082245
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
245 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PST SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
ONSHORE ONTO THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUD BANDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RADAR MOSAICS SHOW
WEAK ECHOES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST OF SANTA CRUZ. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED
AT KSFO...AND POINT REYES HAS PICKED UP 0.9 HUNDREDTHS WITHIN THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD SPREADING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
LOW FOR OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A TENTH OR LESS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP
OUR AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
STORM TRACK IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD. HAVE LEFT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY THE NORTH BAY ZONES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
TIME FRAME. NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SATURDAY...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE
IS SHOWING A CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS MAKING
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST AS FOG SCATTERS OUT AND LOW LEVEL (MVFR CIGS)
CLOUDS MOVE IN. THIS FEATURE IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT THE AREA COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
.MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS
SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT THE AREA WILL SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: ANDERSON
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
[top]
000
FXUS65 KPSR 082221 CCA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING WITH IT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST AFTER MIDWEEK...WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ALONG WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS FIRM GRIP ON THE REGIONAL WX. TEMPS ARE
STILL A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...ALL THIS WILL CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SEEN NICELY ON SATELLITE PIX IS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ASHORE OVER THE PAC NW. PROGS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE E/SEWD
TOWARDS AZ THRU SUNDAY...AND PASS THRU NRN/CENTRAL AZ IN A NEGATIVE
TILT FASHION. SO...SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE
DYNAMICAL PUNCH...BUT MOISTURE FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED FOR SRN AZ/SE CA. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH PUNCH WITH THIS SYSTEM
TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SCNTRL HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...LEFT LOW GRADE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN PLACE THESE
AREAS...BASICALLY FROM PHX EWD.
MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THIS TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
AND GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A
WIND ADVISORY FOR IMPERIAL COUNTY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
NOON SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF MODEL RUN SHOWING SOME STIFF WINDS EXPECTED
JUST 2 OR 3 THSD FEET OFF THE SURFACE...UPWARDS OF 70 KTS...SO FEEL
RATHER CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ADVISORY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE GENLY
FROM KIPL WWD. ELSEWHERE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD GUST OR TWO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
EXPANDING THE ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.
TROUGH/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NRN AZ BY EARLY MONDAY WITH
THE CWA LEFT IN A DRY...COOL NWLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS BY MONDAY WILL
BE BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMS. A SECONDARY
TROUGH WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE N ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL DO
LITTLE MORE TO OUR CWA THAN JUST REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS.
BY MIDWEEK AND THEREAFTER...PROGS AGREE THAT RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE W COAST...BUT STILL KEEPING US IN A NWLY FLOW. THEREFORE
...WILL START A WARMING TREND...BUT KEEP IT VERY GRADUAL AND
GENERALLY UNDER MEX MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
PHX AREA...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF WINDOW OF WLY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRAINAGE WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK-UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL
INDICATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW.
SE CA/SW AZ...
WEAK WINDS THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LEAD
TO STRONG WINDS /GUSTS 30-35 KT/ SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 13-16Z. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLOWING DUST. WINDS
SLOWLY WEAKENING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ033.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
[top]
000
FXUS66 KHNX 082212
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
212 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF OFF THE WEST COAST HAS BEGUN THE DIGGING
PROCESS...WITH WATER VAPOR PIX AND RADAR SHOWING DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL CA. HAVE UPPED POPS TONIGHT ALL
AREAS PER GFS AND EURO PRECIP FIELDS. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT RAIN
OR SNOW ALL NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY FAST MOVING. MOST
AREAS EXCEPT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WILL SEE A BRIEF SHOT
OF PRECIP...ROUGHLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MERCED AND YOSEMITE...THEN
SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD KERN COUNTY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MOST PRECIP SHOULD
BE OVER EARLY SUN...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING MTN SHOWERS. MUCH
COOLER SUN AS H85 TEMPS PLUMMET FROM ABOUT 15 DEGS/C TODAY TO ONLY
ABOUT 3 DEGS/C SUN. SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY LOWER THIS EVENING
AND REACH ABOUT 5500 FEET OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME LOCALIZED 4-5 INCH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN YOSEMITE AND KINGS CANYON TONITE.
FOR MON...AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BOTH GFS AND THE
EURO SHOW A RIDGE DEVELOPING THE THE EAST PAC...SOMEWHAT FLAT AT
FIRST AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS MOVE OVER THE TOP. THESE
SHORTWAVES COULD BRING SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS TO CENTRAL CA MON
AND TUE...BUT NO PRECIP. FROM WED INTO SAT...THE UPPER RIDGES
BUILDS QUITE STRONGLY ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH MODELS SHOWING
A STRONG 588-591 DM H5 HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
WED...WHICH MOVES INLAND SAT. TEMPS THIS WEEK WILL CLIMB STEADILY
AFTER TUES...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGS OR MORE ABOVE CLIMO BY
THURS...CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE PUSHED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGS ABOVE GFS MOS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE
EURO FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR HZ/BR IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...BECOMING VFR BY 03Z...THEN LOCAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
WITH AND BEHIND FRONT AFT 03Z. ELSEWHERE VFR THRU 03Z THEN AREAS
MVFR/IFR IN CIGS/PRECIP ACROSS THE MTNS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BINGHAM
AVN/FW...JEB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
[top]
000
FXUS66 KSGX 082135
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
138 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LOW AND A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS...COLDER TEMPERATURES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
EXCEPT FOR EASTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...THE TRANSITION BACK TO ONSHORE
FLOW HAS BEEN COMPLETE AND NOW WE AWAIT THE BIG BLAST FROM FROM THE
WEST. MOSTLY THIS WILL AFFECT THE OUTER WATERS...SEE MARINE SECTION
BELOW...AND THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND THE DESERT AREAS. NEXT SHIFT
WILL MAKE THE CALL ABOUT WHETHER TO RAISE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE AREAS OR GO WITH WIND ADVISORIES. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY BY SUNDAY MORNING OVER
THESE AREAS AND SINCE ITS A WEEKEND...CAMPERS...OFF ROADERS...AND
OTHERS OUT IN THE DESERT AREAS MAY WANT TO SECURE PROPERTY BEFORE
SUNSET TONIGHT.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL DIG SE AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS INSIDE SLIDER...HAVING
SETTLED ON MORE OF A WESTERN TRACK WITH A STRONG JET DIVING DOWN THE
COAST AND A 551 DM LOW PASSING THROUGH SRN NV. AN EDDY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE
MARINE LAYER. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND DEEP MARINE
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AND W
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD BE LOCAL DENSE FOG ON THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. A 50-60 KT 700 MB JET
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE MORNING...AND THIS COULD
CAUSE LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 60 MPH...HOWEVER HIGH
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ISOLATED AREAS OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE WINDY IN THE MOUNTAINS TOO...BUT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY ONLY BE NEEDED THERE. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE SUN AFTERNOON BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS W OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO MON AND A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ON SUN AND MON WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S W OF THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE COLD IN SOME OF THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND WIND SHELTERED AREAS.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIG AND MOVE PAST TO
OUR NE ON TUE BUT MODELS SHOW BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE IT WILL
COME TO SRN CA. WILL GO WITH DRY NLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH
ONLY WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. SLOW WARMING TUE-WED AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
INCREASE. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE E PAC WILL MOVE OVER THE W
COAST THU-FRI ACCOMPANIED BY GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. THIS
WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
082130Z...STRONG TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING A RAPID DETERIORATION IN AVIATION WEATHER AFTER 0000 UTC.
BETWEEN 0000 UTC AND 0300 UTC COASTAL STRATUS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOLID BELOW FL018 AND PUSH INLAND AND BETWEEN 0300 AND 0900 UTC THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO FL035 WITH
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS SLOPING UPWARD TO FL060 AGAINST COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AS TROUGH NEARS. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AND ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED....BUT AFTER 0600
UTC MAY SEE SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS LENTICULARUS CLOUDS BETWEEN
FL080-FL100 AND BROKEN CIRROSTRATUS BETWEEN FL220-FL300...ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE OVER AND EAST OF MOUNTAINS AS WEST
WINDS INCREASE TO 50-100 KT BETWEEN FL100-FL250. AFTER 1200 UTC
MARINE STRATUS FIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BREAKS UP THE CAPPING
INVERSION. BY 1800 UTC WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR COMING IN SO MAY LOSE VISUAL INDICATORS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION
BUT EXPECT IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT REMAINDER OF SUNDAY DUE TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 25-40 KT IN THE FL050-FL100 LAYER AND 50-90KT ABOVE
THIS. STRATUS FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN BELOW FL030 AND MAINLY AFFECTING SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AIRPORTS DUE TO DRIER OVERLAND TRAJECTORIES ACROSS INLAND
EMPIRE AND MOST OF ORANGE COUNTY.
&&
.MARINE...
082130Z...WARNINGS WERE ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GETTING READY TO PUMP OUT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE THE RESIDUAL
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DROP BELOW 5 FEET AND ANGLE OF APPROACH MAY
EXCLUDE MOST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES. TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
FAIRLY HIGH AND SINCE THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL
HITTING THE COAST THIS FALL BEACH EROSION WILL BE NOTICEABLE...BUT
THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF WINDS AND CORIOLIS EFFECT WILL PARTIALLY
OFFSET BEACH RUNUP AND INLAND EXTENT OF SCOURING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DYING SANTA ANA WINDS THIS MORNING. RAPID SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING DRY AIR THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 35 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID SPREAD OF ANY FIRES OVER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE WELL OVER 60 PERCENT
THESE AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ANZA BORREGO DESERT AND COACHELLA
VALLEY...SO THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OVER 50 MPH BY THEN ANY
EXISTING FIRES SHOULD NOT SPREAD IN THE FINE FUELS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 1 AM PST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM PST MONDAY FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4
AM PST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SCV/BALFOUR
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 082129
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING WITH IT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST AFTER MIDWEEK...WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ALONG WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS FIRM GRIP ON THE REGIONAL WX. TEMPS ARE
STILL A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...ALL THIS WILL CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SEEN NICELY ON SATELLITE PIX IS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ASHORE OVER THE PAC NW. PROGS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE E/SEWD
TOWARDS AZ THRU SUNDAY...AND PASS THRU NRN/CENTRAL AZ IN A NEGATIVE
TILT FASHION. SO...SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE
DYNAMICAL PUNCH...BUT MOISTURE FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED FOR SRN AZ/SE CA. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH PUNCH WITH THIS SYSTEM
TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SCNTRL HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...LEFT LOW GRADE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN PLACE THESE
AREAS...BASICALLY FROM PHX EWD.
MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THIS TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
AND GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A
WIND ADVISORY FOR IMPERIAL COUNTY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
NOON SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF MODEL RUN SHOWING SOME STIFF WINDS EXPECTED
JUST 2 OR 3 THSD FEET OFF THE SURFACE...UPWARDS OF 70 KTS...SO FEEL
RATHER CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ADVISORY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE GENLY
FROM KIPL WWD. ELSEWHERE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD GUST OR TWO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
EXPANDING THE ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.
TROUGH/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NRN AZ BY EARLY MONDAY WITH
THE CWA LEFT IN A DRY...COOL NWLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS BY MONDAY WILL
BE BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMS. A SECONDARY
TROUGH WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE N ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL DO
LITTLE MORE TO OUR CWA THAN JUST REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS.
BY MIDWEEK AND THEREAFTER...PROGS AGREE THAT RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE W COAST...BUT STILL KEEPING US IN A NWLY FLOW. THEREFORE
...WILL START A WARMING TREND...BUT KEEP IT VERY GRADUAL AND
GENERALLY UNDER MEX MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
PHX AREA...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF WINDOW OF WLY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRAINAGE WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK-UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL
INDICATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW.
SE CA/SW AZ...
WEAK WINDS THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LEAD
TO STRONG WINDS /GUSTS 30-35 KT/ SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 13-16Z. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLOWING DUST. WINDS
SLOWLY WEAKENING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ033.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
[top]
000
FXUS65 KREV 081856
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1056 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
FIRST BAND OF PCPN WENT THROUGH EARLIER THIS MRNG WITH MAINLY
VIRGA EAST OF THE SIERRA. MEANWHILE CLOUDS ARE NOT QUITE AS THICK
AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST THIS MRNG...BUT WITH JET STREAK APPROACHING
CA AM SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT DVLPG ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. PROBLEM
IS TRAJECTORY OF THE JET STREAK. IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
STREAK APPEARS TO BE TAKING A MORE ESE TRAJECTORY POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO MORE OF A SPLITTING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ARE TRYING TO
DEPICT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF SKILL. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPLIT
POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR TONIGHT...BUT AM NOT INCLINED TO
DO THAT JUST YET. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVNG COULD BE LESS
THAN FORECAST AS WELL BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOSE OF JET STREAK BEING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WOULD FOCUS
STRONGER WINDS IN MONO COUNTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL NOT
INDICATING A CRITICAL LAYER WITH STABILITY AT OR ABOVE RIDGE TOP
BUT STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF GOOD PV ADVECTION SOUTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING. WILL UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO SKY CONDITIONS AND TO
INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CREST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NEW MODELS STILL TRYING TO PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD PCPN ERN SECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONVINCED
AS SUN CLOUD LAYERS REMAIN DRY AND MODELS NOT INITIALIZING ERN
MSTR THAT WELL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR LATER INCLUSION. MLF
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008/
SHORT TERM...
SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS LOCATED AT ABOUT 43N
AND 136W...WITH A 125-140 KT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
COASTAL BORDER OF OREGON AND CALIFORNIA TO ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF
SAN FRANCISCO.
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE COAST...WITH THE JET
STREAK ENHANCING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT (THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE WITH ENHANCING CLOUD TOPS WEST OF SAN
FRANCISCO). INSTABILITY PROGS FROM THE 03Z SREF AND THE GFS/NAM SUPPORT
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE FAR NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW COMBINES WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT TO DELIVER DECENT LIFTING THERE.
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL EVOLVE INTO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING IN THOSE
AREAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOR AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA PRECIPITATION
IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
LEE SHADOWING. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE INCOMING LOW IS VERY CRITICAL
TO THE EXACT NATURE OF SHADOWING. IF THE LOW COMES IN OVER THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SOUTH TO AT LEAST INTERSTATE 80.
IF IT COMES IN NORTH OF TAHOE SLIGHTLY...MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
SHALLOW WITH BETTER LEE SHADOWING AND STRONGER SURFACE WINDS FOR
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT. I HAVE OPTED FOR
LESS SPILLOVER/MORE WIND SOLUTION BASED ON THE TRACK IN THE 00Z
MODELS BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INCOMING LOW
CLOSELY.
SUNDAY THE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST FOR DIMINISHING SHOWER COVERAGE.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...THE 06Z GFS HAS CONTINUED
THE 00Z IDEA OF A FAST MOVING IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST
NEVADA. THEREFORE...I HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SNYDER
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES EARLY IN PERIOD AS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWEST AND MOST AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SPLIT FLOW OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE GFS MEANWHILE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
KEEPS RIDGE FLATTER RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY. STRONG PACIFIC JET PUSHING INTO THE PACNW SUGGESTS PUSHING
THINGS ALONG FASTER ALTHOUGH SLOWER THAN THE GFS SUGGESTS. AFTER
TUESDAY THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT FOR BUILDING RIDGE WITH DECREASING
POPS AND CLOUDS ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE WAS CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH REFLECTS GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND WARMER CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. POPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TAPERING TREND TOWARD THE NORTH
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP MOST OF THE QPF IN
OREGON. SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN LIGHT. HOHMANN
AVIATION...
PATCHY FZFG WILL CONTINUE AT KTRK BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING
UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND RIDGE LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME LEE SIDE GUSTS ALONG THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KRNO UP TO
40 KT AFT 21Z. FARTHER EAST TOWARD KLOL...SOME GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ARE
EXPECTED BTWN 00Z-06Z. WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT EVEN DURING -SHRA...SOME IFR CIGS/VSBY ARE LIKELY IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING KTVL/KTRK BETWEEN
04Z-12Z. HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 081826
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
1026 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 AM PST SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL
PREVALENT IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS WITH VISIBILITIES
VARYING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE. GIVEN THE CLOUDS ABOVE...EXPECT SLOW
CLEARING OF THE FOG THIS MORNING IN THESE AREAS.
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
LOW FOR OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT THE MOST
EXPECTED. SHOWERS TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SERVE TO
KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
STORM TRACK IS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH BAY
ZONES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. RAIN OR NO RAIN...NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SATURDAY...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE
IS SHOWING A CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS MAKING
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST AS FOG SCATTERS OUT AND LOW LEVEL (MVFR CIGS)
CLOUDS MOVE IN. THIS FEATURE IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT THE AREA COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
.MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS
SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT THE AREA WILL SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: ANDERSON
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
[top]
000
FXUS66 KLOX 081815
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1015 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. LATEST
TEMP TRENDS INDICATE TEMPS ARE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...BUT
PERSISTENT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER INLAND. CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE TRENDS...AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR ISSUES FOR TODAY AS ONLY SOME LOCALIZED WINDS
ARE BLOWING THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS (WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS).
QUICK LOOK INTO THE FUTURE INDICATES STILL ON TRACK FOR A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY
MEET OR EXCEED WARNING LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AT THIS TIME...WILL SAVE ANY
CHANGES/UPGRADES TO THE CURRENT NPW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ZONE
PACKAGE...ALLOWING FOR MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ON MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL MON AND TUE...THE SOME
WARMING SHOULD BEGIN WED AND THU AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE W CST.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TUE THROUGH WED...ENOUGH TO
WARRANT PTLY CLOUDS WORDING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN DURING THE MON
THRU THU TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUE THROUGH THU. SOME MID LVL MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUE
THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS BOTH TUE AND WED. MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AND LOW LVL GRADS TURN WKLY
OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN CONTS INTO FRI...SO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE AREA THU AND FRI. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS
UP A BIT...BUT THEY ARE PROBABLY STILL NOT WARM ENOUGH SHOULD THE
GFS SOLUTION VERIFY.
&&
.AVIATION...09/1800Z.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG IN THE EVENING AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 13KFT
AND WILL DESCEND SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK
TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BECOME ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH FLOW OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS 015-020 WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE A MODERATE NORTH
FLOW WILL DESCEND TO AROUND 1KT SUNDAY MORNING.
KBUR...IT IS VERY LIKELY CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 09Z. THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS AROUND 020 WILL DEVELOP AT 09Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH 16Z. IS IS LIKELY MODERATE LOW LEVEL NORTH FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AT 12Z.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081802
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1102 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS...MOSTLY WIND-WISE. ARE
THINKING SERIOUSLY ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST CYCLE FOR OUR EXTREME WRN CWA AS COLD TROUGH DROPS IN
TOMORROW. MORE ON THAT IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) TODAY...
AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THE BIG WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO AZ. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS...GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE FAVORED EUROPEAN MODEL
DEPICTING A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...WE CANT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH PHOENIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX...GENERALLY SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL FOR SUNDAYS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FAVORED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HAD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.
SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...PERHAPS PEAKING TO NEAR
40 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE ALSO LIKELY. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A DRY SOLUTION...AS THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR TUE IS MUCH
WEAKER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
PHX AREA...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF WINDOW OF WLY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRAINAGE WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK-UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL
INDICATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW.
SE CA/SW AZ...
WEAK WINDS THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LEAD
TO STRONG WINDS /GUSTS 30-35 KT/ SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 13-16Z. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLOWING DUST. WINDS
SLOWLY WEAKENING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KLOX 081736
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. LATEST
TEMP TRENDS INDICATE TEMPS ARE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...BUT
PERSISTENT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER INLAND. CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE TRENDS...AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR ISSUES FOR TODAY AS ONLY SOME LOCALIZED WINDS
ARE BLOWING THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS (WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS).
QUICK LOOK INTO THE FUTURE INDICATES STILL ON TRACK FOR A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY
MEET OR EXCEED WARNING LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AT THIS TIME...WILL SAVE ANY
CHANGES/UPGRADES TO THE CURRENT NPW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ZONE
PACKAGE...ALLOWING FOR MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ON MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL MON AND TUE...THE SOME
WARMING SHOULD BEGIN WED AND THU AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE W CST.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TUE THROUGH WED...ENOUGH TO
WARRANT PTLY CLOUDS WORDING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN DURING THE MON
THRU THU TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUE THROUGH THU. SOME MID LVL MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUE
THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS BOTH TUE AND WED. MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AND LOW LVL GRADS TURN WKLY
OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN CONTS INTO FRI...SO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE AREA THU AND FRI. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS
UP A BIT...BUT THEY ARE PROBABLY STILL NOT WARM ENOUGH SHOULD THE
GFS SOLUTION VERIFY.
&&
.AVIATION...09/1230Z.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING BRINGING SOME UDDF ACROSS THE LOCAL MTNS AND SOME
LLWS POSSIBLE NEAR KSBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNGIHT
HOURS. ALSO LOW CLOUDS BUILDING UP AGAINST NRN SLOPES OF SBA...VTU AND
WESTERN LA COUNTY MTNS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 03Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFT 06Z. AS EDDY
SPINS UP OVERNIGHT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 081728
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FAIR WEATHER
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAIN AND DESERTS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS MONDAY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH INTERMITTENT WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
12Z KNKX SOUNDING INDICATED A NEAR SURFACE BASED INVERSION WITH WEAK
NORTH WINDS BELOW 700 MB. WEAKENING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT
-7 MB SAN-TPH.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN TODAY RESULTING IN A
LITTLE COOLING. 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ONLY DROPPED 1 DEGREE...AND SOME
AREAS COULD HEAT UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD RETURN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
FROM EXCEEDING YESTERDAYS HIGHS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN NW WINDS ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY.
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL DIG SE AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS INSIDE SLIDER...HAVING
SETTLED ON MORE OF A WESTERN TRACK WITH A STRONG JET DIVING DOWN THE
COAST AND A 551 DM LOW PASSING THROUGH SRN NV. AN EDDY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE
MARINE LAYER. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND DEEP
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD BE LOCAL DENSE FOG ON THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. A 50-60 KT 700
MB JET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE MORNING...AND THIS
COULD CAUSE LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS AND
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 60 MPH...HOWEVER
HIGH WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ISOLATED AREAS OF THE COACHELLA
VALLEY AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE WINDY IN THE MOUNTAINS TOO...BUT A
WIND ADVISORY MAY ONLY BE NEEDED THERE. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE SUN AFTERNOON BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS W OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO MON AND A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ON SUN AND MON WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S W OF THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE COLD IN SOME OF THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND WIND SHELTERED AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIG AND MOVE PAST TO
OUR NE ON TUE BUT MODELS SHOW BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE IT WILL
COME TO SRN CA. WILL GO WITH DRY NLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH
ONLY WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. SLOW WARMING TUE-WED AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
INCREASE. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE E PAC WILL MOVE OVER THE W
COAST THU-FRI ACCOMPANIED BY GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. THIS
WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
081645Z...ENJOY THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS THE STRONG
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A RAPID
DETERIORATION IN AVIATION WEATHER AFTER 0000 UTC. BETWEEN 0000 UTC
AND 0300 UTC COASTAL STRATUS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOLID BELOW FL018
AND PUSH INLAND AND BETWEEN 0300 AND 0900 UTC THE MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO FL035 WITH STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS
SLOPING UPWARD TO FL060 AGAINST COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AS TROUGH
NEARS. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AND ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED....BUT AFTER 0600 UTC MAY SEE SCATTERED
ALTOCUMULUS LENTICULARUS CLOUDS BETWEEN FL080-FL100 AND BROKEN
CIRROSTRATUS BETWEEN FL220-FL300...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE OVER AND EAST OF MOUNTAINS AS WEST WINDS INCREASE TO
50-100 KT BETWEEN FL100-FL250. AFTER 1200 UTC MARINE STRATUS FIELD
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT BREAKS UP THE CAPPING INVERSION. BY 1800 UTC WIND
DIRECTION VEERING TO NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR COMING IN SO MAY LOSE
VISUAL INDICATORS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION BUT EXPECT IT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT REMAINDER OF SUNDAY DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25-40
KT IN THE FL050-FL100 LAYER AND 50-90KT ABOVE THIS. STRATUS FIELD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
BELOW FL030 AND MAINLY AFFECTING SAN DIEGO COUNTY AIRPORTS DUE TO
DRIER OVERLAND TRAJECTORIES ACROSS INLAND EMPIRE AND MOST OF ORANGE
COUNTY.
&&
.MARINE...
081650Z...WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL
PROBABLY NEED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST SAN DIEGO COUNTY
BEACHES FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
FAIRLY HIGH AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL HITTING
THE COAST THIS FALL SO SOME BEACH EROSION LIKELY...BUT NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF WINDS AND CORIOLIS EFFECT WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET BEACH
RUNUP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DYING SANTA ANA WINDS THIS MORNING. RAPID SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING DRY AIR THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 35 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID SPREAD OF ANY FIRES OVER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE WELL OVER 60 PERCENT
THESE AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ANZA BORREGO DESERT AND COACHELLA
VALLEY...SO THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OVER 50 MPH BY THEN ANY
EXISTING FIRES SHOULD NOT SPREAD IN THE FINE FUELS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE DESERTS (SEE LAXNPWSGX).
GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS (SEE LAXMWWSGX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS (SEE LAXMWWSGX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SCV
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
000
FXUS66 KHNX 081656
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
856 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...UPPER TROF OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL DIG SE ACROSS
CENTRAL CA TONITE. WHILE THERE WONT BE MUCH PRECIP WITH IT...THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS FRESNO COUNTY...AND MAY
NEED TO ADJUST POPS FARTHER SOUTH WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. COLD
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF STRONG NW JET TONITE AND SUN MORNING WILL
BRING QUITE WINDY CONDS ESPECIALLY TO THE KERN MTNS/DESERTS. FCSTS
LOOK PRETTY GOOD AN NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS MRNG.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AT THIS TIME AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY BEFORE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS HAS THE TIGHTEST SURFACE-PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT THAT TIME...
AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE REGIONS LOOKS ON TRACK.
THE 00Z GFS QPF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RFC GUIDANCE WITH YOSEMITE
VALLEY FORECAST TO GET 0.33 INCH OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS NEAR YOSEMITE
WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND 4
INCHES OF NEW SNOW LIKELY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY EXCEPT LOCALLY MORE
IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH DOWN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TONIGHT...REACHING THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS BY
12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL
STAY AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET...SO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE TEHACHAPI AND
WALKER PASSES WILL REMAIN SNOW FREE.
A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY.
THIS IMPULSE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST
AREA AS AN EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA.
500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 5760
METERS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...TO OVER 5820 METERS BY 00Z THURSDAY...AND
PEAK AROUND 5880 METERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR HZ/BR IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...BECOMING VFR BY 03Z...THEN LOCAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
WITH AND BEHIND FRONT AFT 03Z. ELSEWHERE VFR THRU 03Z THEN AREAS
MVFR/IFR IN CIGS/PRECIP ACROSS THE MTNS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BINGHAM/SANGER
AVN/FW...DS/BINGHAM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081653
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS...MOSTLY WIND-WISE. ARE
THINKING SERIOUSLY ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST CYCLE FOR OUR EXTREME WRN CWA AS COLD TROUGH DROPS IN
TOMORROW. MORE ON THAT IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) TODAY...
AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THE BIG WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO AZ. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS...GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE FAVORED EUROPEAN MODEL
DEPICTING A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...WE CANT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH PHOENIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX...GENERALLY SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL FOR SUNDAYS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FAVORED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HAD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.
SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...PERHAPS PEAKING TO NEAR
40 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE ALSO LIKELY. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A DRY SOLUTION...AS THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR TUE IS MUCH
WEAKER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY. SKY HRBR AIRPORT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL VEERING TO A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE AFT 21Z. SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 15 THSD FT ARE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE DAY...THICKENING CLOUDS BY MID DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF PHOENIX. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO SHIFT GRADUALLY TO SW...THEN
WESTERLY AND GUSTY THRU SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLWG DUST
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST THRU ABOUT 0500Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081652
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS...MOSTLY WIND-WISE. ARE
THINKING SERIOUSLY ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST CYCLE FOR OUR EXTREME WRN CWA AS COLD TROUGH DROPS IN
TOMORROW. MORE ON THAT IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) TODAY
..AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THE BIG WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO AZ. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS...GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE FAVORED EUROPEAN MODEL
DEPICTING A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...WE CANT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH PHOENIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX...GENERALLY SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL FOR SUNDAYS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FAVORED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HAD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.
SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...PERHAPS PEAKING TO NEAR
40 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE ALSO LIKELY. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A DRY SOLUTION...AS THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR TUE IS MUCH
WEAKER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY. SKY HRBR AIRPORT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL VEERING TO A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE AFT 21Z. SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 15 THSD FT ARE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE DAY...THICKENING CLOUDS BY MID DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF PHOENIX. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO SHIFT GRADUALLY TO SW...THEN
WESTERLY AND GUSTY THRU SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLWG DUST
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST THRU ABOUT 0500Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KMTR 081650
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
850 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 AM PST SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL
PREVALENT IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS WITH VISIBILITIES
VARYING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE. GIVEN THE CLOUDS ABOVE...EXPECT SLOW
CLEARING OF THE FOG THIS MORNING IN THESE AREAS.
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
LOW FOR OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT THE MOST
EXPECTED. SHOWERS TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SERVE TO
KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
STORM TRACK IS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH BAY
ZONES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. RAIN OR NO RAIN...NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SATURDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY MOVING IN FROM THE NW. AHEAD OF THESE CLOUDS FOG
REMAINS AT KSTS AND NEAR MRY BAY. EXPECT THE FOG TO MIX OUT A
LITTLE AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR RAIN...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND POSS SF BAY LATER
TODAY. WILL KEEP PROB30 FOR KSTS...BUT WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR SF
BAY AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CIGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH THE FROPA. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESP AT KSFO.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: ANDERSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MEHLE
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
[top]
000
FXUS66 KSTO 081646
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
845 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING EAST AND NORTH
OF BOUNDARY. PREFRONTAL LINE OF LIGHT RETURNS ON 88-D SPREADING INTO
THE SIERRA ATTM BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY VIRGA. RADAR ALSO SHOWING
LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT. A SECOND FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING 130W AND WILL
SERVE TO INCREASE THE BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IS APPROACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AMSU SHOWING AVERAGE TPW ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE AROUND 1.3 INCHES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE EPAC
HOWEVER THIS HIGHER PW`S FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH APPROACH
OF SECOND SHORT WAVE. MODEL QPFS SHOWING ABOUT A HALF INCH ALONG
I-80 TO AROUND AN INCH OVER WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY. MUCH OF THIS WILL
FALL AS RAIN THOUGH AS SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH...AROUND
7500 FEET PREFRONTAL BUT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR SIERRA
WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIP IS LEFT WHEN SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER. NAM BUFKIT PROFILE SHOWING KBLU TURNING OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF PRECIP BEYOND THAT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK BETTER NORTH OF I-80 AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER AN ADVISORY FOR ZONE 68 TONIGHT. BUFKIT ALSO INDICATING
INCREASING CAPES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS LFQ OF 120 +KT JET
MOVES OVER NORCAL WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
PCH
&&
.AVIATION...
LINGERING FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING LOWERED CIGS AND A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE. A SECOND WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS66 KEKA 081313
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
511 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY.
MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT PASSED ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING BAND OF SHOWERS ON RADAR IMAGERY...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY SO FAR. NEAR CEC 0.16 WAS
REPORTED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH...0.03 AT ACV AND
LITTLE OR NOTHING OVER MENDOCINO. MAINLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ONGOING OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY...AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL OFFSHORE
WITH THE MAIN AXIS NEAR 130 WEST. WHILE THE DRY SLOT SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGES IS MOVING OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BELIEVE THAT MORE SHOWERS ARE ON THE WAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HEAVIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY AFTER 18 UTC...AND CONVECTIVE FIELDS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING...AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A VIGOROUS VORT MAX
AND THE LFQ OF A STRONG JET STREAK.
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION SUPPORTS SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
TO NEAR 5000 FT THIS EVENING...AND TO NEAR 4500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT TO SEE A FEW INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...BUT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTED BY
VORT IMPULSES IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROUGH. CC
.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER WRN NA EARLY NEXT
WEEK TRANSITIONING INTO TROUGHING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS CTL CONUS...RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS ERN PAC.
MODELS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH OF RIDGE ACROSS THE PAC NW..BUT KEEP
NW CA IN GENERALLY W TO NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN
THIS FLOW SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...TIME OF YEAR AND MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE CLIMO POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BC
&&
.AVIATION...MOIST UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP COASTAL AND NEAR COASTAL AIR TERMINALS WITHIN
MVFR CONSTRAINTS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG AND/OR SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLIER THAN PROJECTED LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW WELL INLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WITH A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. A BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ALSO BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HAZ SEAS WARNING ALL WATERS.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KLOX 081244
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
358 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE GRADS HAVE WEAKENED DURG THE PAST 24 HOURS...
AND ALTHOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CONTD IN THE MTNS AND VLY...EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE PAC NW WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE ACROSS SWRN CA TO FLATTEN
TODAY...AND HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL DROP A BIT TODAY.
HOWEVER...850/950 MB TEMPS WILL START OFF HIGHER TODAY...AND
ALTHOUGH GRADS WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A FAIRLY
QUICK WARM UP THIS MORNING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SAT IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS...WHILE SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CSTL PLAIN. NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED LATE THIS MORNING OR
AROUND NOON...THEN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO NRN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TROUGH WILL DIG QUICKLY SSEWD FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED 20
PERCENT POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. INCREASING NWLY FLOW ACRS THE COAST
WATERS WILL CAUSE A STRONG EDDY CRCLN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INNER
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW
LVL MOISTURE ACROSS CSTL AND VLY AREAS OF L.A. AND MOST OF VTU
COUNTIES TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY
SUNDAY...ASSOCD WITH THE DEEPENING MOIST LAYER...INCREASING LIFT AND
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN CSTL AND VLY SECTIONS OF
L.A./VTU COUNTIES. THE INCREASING N-S GRADS AND DEVELOPING GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS SBA COUNTY WILL LIKELY KEEP FROM REACHING THE S CST OF
SBA COUNTY TONIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG NW TO NLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS OF SBA COUNTY TONIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A VERY
STRONG 140 KNOT NWLY JET WILL NOSE JUST TO THE NE OF THE FCST AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT...PLACING THE FCST AREA UNDER ITS RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT...VERY FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCING WINDS. STRONG NWLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE L.A./VTU MTNS AS WELL BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WINDS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...THE DAY
SHIFT WILL LIKELY CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...LIKELY REQUIRING AT LEAST ADVISORIES.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE S CST OF SBA COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND PROBABLY FOR THE VLY OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA RANGE FOR SUNDAY.
NWLY FLOW...SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ERODE THE EDDY CRCLN ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACRS MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...WHERE
NLY FLOW IS AN UPSLOPE FLOW...MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS GRADS AND
UPPER SUPPORT SLOWLY WANE. STILL...SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONT IN THE MTNS INTO MONDAY. A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA MON KEEPING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
DOWN...WITH TEMPS CONTG ON THE COOL SIDE.
.LONG TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ON MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL MON AND TUE...THE SOME
WARMING SHOULD BEGIN WED AND THU AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE W CST.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TUE THROUGH WED...ENOUGH TO
WARRANT PTLY CLOUDS WORDING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN DURING THE MON
THRU THU TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUE THROUGH THU. SOME MID LVL MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUE
THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS BOTH TUE AND WED. MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AND LOW LVL GRADS TURN WKLY
OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN CONTS INTO FRI...SO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE AREA THU AND FRI. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS
UP A BIT...BUT THEY ARE PROBABLY STILL NOT WARM ENOUGH SHOULD THE
GFS SOLUTION VERIFY.
&&
.AVIATION...09/1230Z.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING BRINGING SOME UDDF ACROSS THE LOCAL MTNS AND
SOME LLWS POSSIBLE NEAR KSBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNGIHT HOURS. ALSO LOW CLOUDS BUILDING UP AGAINST NRN SLOPES OF
SBA...VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MTNS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 03Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFT 06Z. AS
EDDY SPINS UP OVERNIGHT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081214 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
514 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) TODAY
..AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THE BIG WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO AZ. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS...GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE FAVORED EUROPEAN MODEL
DEPICTING A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...WE CANT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH PHOENIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX...GENERALLY SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL FOR SUNDAYS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FAVORED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HAD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.
SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...PERHAPS PEAKING TO NEAR
40 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE ALSO LIKELY. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A DRY SOLUTION...AS THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR TUE IS MUCH
WEAKER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY. SKY HRBR AIRPORT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL VEERING TO A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE AFT 21Z. SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 15 THSD FT ARE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE DAY...THICKENING CLOUDS BY MID DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF PHOENIX. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO SHIFT GRADUALLY TO SW...THEN
WESTERLY AND GUSTY THRU SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLWG DUST
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST THRU ABOUT 0500Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KSTO 081209
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
410 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF THE
INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MUCH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT THAT THIS INITIAL
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE I-80 CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z.
IT APPEARS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE NOW
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W NORTH OF 40N. QUITE A BIT OF ENHANCEMENT OF
CLOUD TOPS TO THE WEST OF SFO HAS BEEN OCCURRING THE PAST FEW HOURS
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THIS AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS REFORMED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN FOG THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL AND SIERRA RANGES ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH THE VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA RANGE.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KREV 081207
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
407 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...
SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS LOCATED AT ABOUT 43N
AND 136W...WITH A 125-140 KT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
COASTAL BORDER OF OREGON AND CALIFORNIA TO ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF
SAN FRANCISCO.
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE COAST...WITH THE JET
STREAK ENHANCING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT (THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE WITH ENHANCING CLOUD TOPS WEST OF SAN
FRANCISCO). INSTABILITY PROGS FROM THE 03Z SREF AND THE GFS/NAM SUPPORT
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE FAR NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW COMBINES WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT TO DELIVER DECENT LIFTING THERE.
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL EVOLVE INTO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING IN THOSE
AREAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOR AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA PRECIPITATION
IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
LEE SHADOWING. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE INCOMING LOW IS VERY CRITICAL
TO THE EXACT NATURE OF SHADOWING. IF THE LOW COMES IN OVER THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SOUTH TO AT LEAST INTERSTATE 80.
IF IT COMES IN NORTH OF TAHOE SLIGHTLY...MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
SHALLOW WITH BETTER LEE SHADOWING AND STRONGER SURFACE WINDS FOR
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT. I HAVE OPTED FOR
LESS SPILLOVER/MORE WIND SOLUTION BASED ON THE TRACK IN THE 00Z
MODELS BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INCOMING LOW
CLOSELY.
SUNDAY THE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST FOR DIMINISHING SHOWER COVERAGE.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...THE 06Z GFS HAS CONTINUED
THE 00Z IDEA OF A FAST MOVING IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST
NEVADA. THEREFORE...I HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES EARLY IN PERIOD AS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWEST AND MOST AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SPLIT FLOW OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE GFS MEANWHILE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
KEEPS RIDGE FLATTER RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY. STRONG PACIFIC JET PUSHING INTO THE PACNW SUGGESTS PUSHING
THINGS ALONG FASTER ALTHOUGH SLOWER THAN THE GFS SUGGESTS. AFTER
TUESDAY THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT FOR BUILDING RIDGE WITH DECREASING
POPS AND CLOUDS ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE WAS CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH REFLECTS GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND WARMER CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. POPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TAPERING TREND TOWARD THE NORTH
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP MOST OF THE QPF IN
OREGON. SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN LIGHT. HOHMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FZFG WILL CONTINUE AT KTRK BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING
UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND RIDGE LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME LEE SIDE GUSTS ALONG THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KRNO UP TO
40 KT AFT 21Z. FARTHER EAST TOWARD KLOL...SOME GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ARE
EXPECTED BTWN 00Z-06Z. WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT EVEN DURING -SHRA...SOME IFR CIGS/VSBY ARE LIKELY IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING KTVL/KTRK BETWEEN
04Z-12Z. HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 081150
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
350 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
UPDATED AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY
FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY 250 MILES WEST OF THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER CONTINUES TO SPIN TOWARD THE WEST COAST
THIS MORNING. RADAR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF RAIN HAS NOW ENTERED OUR NORTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OCCURRING OFF AND ON AROUND COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY WITH AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW LAYER. THIS
FOG WILL LIFT VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST INVOLVES TODAY`S SYSTEM AND HOW THE
RAINFALL WILL BE DISTRIBUTED ACROSS OUR CWA. GENERAL TIMING FOR THE
RAINFALL STILL SHOWS THAT AT THE EARLIEST IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NAPA/SONOMA INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS...MAKE ITS WAY TO AROUND
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND DOWN TO MONTEREY
COUNTY BY THE EVENING. CNRFC TOTALS STILL SHOW BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO...CLOSE TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH AROUND SF BAY...AND AT MOST A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR SANTA CRUZ...
MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE BURN SITES STILL SEEM VERY
SAFE FROM ANY DEBRIS FLOWS. ONE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE STORM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. WITH AMPLE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...SOME SPOTS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE 60S. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL WILL END BY THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AS ALL WINDS SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS
ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A RIDGE OUT IN
THE PACIFIC WILL BUILD TOWARD THE COAST AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS THE KEY WITH THE FORECAST
AS IF IT BUILDS IN FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH THE STORM TRACK WILL BE
FORCED SO FAR TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA THAT WE WILL STAY COMPLETELY
DRY. DECIDED TO KEEP JUST A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES THERE IS A MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWFBC GRIDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING 90S BACK INTO OUR AREA WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS US IN THE 70S AT THE MOST. FOR NOW...WILL WAIT AT LEAST ONE
MORE RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SATURDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY MOVING IN FROM THE NW. AHEAD OF THESE CLOUDS FOG
REMAINS AT KSTS AND NEAR MRY BAY. EXPECT THE FOG TO MIX OUT A
LITTLE AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR RAIN...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND POSS SF BAY LATER
TODAY. WILL KEEP PROB30 FOR KSTS...BUT WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR SF
BAY AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CIGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH THE FROPA. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESP AT KSFO.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MEHLE
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 081108
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
300 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY
FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY 250 MILES WEST OF THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER CONTINUES TO SPIN TOWARD THE WEST COAST
THIS MORNING. RADAR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF RAIN HAS NOW ENTERED OUR NORTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OCCURRING OFF AND ON AROUND COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY WITH AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW LAYER. THIS
FOG WILL LIFT VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST INVOLVES TODAY`S SYSTEM AND HOW THE
RAINFALL WILL BE DISTRIBUTED ACROSS OUR CWA. GENERAL TIMING FOR THE
RAINFALL STILL SHOWS THAT AT THE EARLIEST IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NAPA/SONOMA INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS...MAKE ITS WAY TO AROUND
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND DOWN TO MONTEREY
COUNTY BY THE EVENING. CNRFC TOTALS STILL SHOW BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO...CLOSE TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH AROUND SF BAY...AND AT MOST A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR SANTA CRUZ...
MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE BURN SITES STILL SEEM VERY
SAFE FROM ANY DEBRIS FLOWS. ONE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE STORM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. WITH AMPLE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...SOME SPOTS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE 60S. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL WILL END BY THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AS ALL WINDS SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS
ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A RIDGE OUT IN
THE PACIFIC WILL BUILD TOWARD THE COAST AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS THE KEY WITH THE FORECAST
AS IF IT BUILDS IN FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH THE STORM TRACK WILL BE
FORCED SO FAR TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA THAT WE WILL STAY COMPLETELY
DRY. DECIDED TO KEEP JUST A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES THERE IS A MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWFBC GRIDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING 90S BACK INTO OUR AREA WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS US IN THE 70S AT THE MOST. FOR NOW...WILL WAIT AT LEAST ONE
MORE RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 PM PST FRIDAY...A THIN AREA OF FOG BRIEFLY
TOUCH MRY BUT HAS SINCE CLEARED OUT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW SOME
CLOUDS REFORMING OFF THE SONOMA COAST AND THESE SHOULD SPREAD TO
THE SAN MATEO COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME CLOUDS COULD MAKE
IT INTO SFO AND OAK TO WHERE SFO AND OAK COULD SEE TEMPORARY
CEILINGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI/MEHLE
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 081041
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FAIR WEATHER
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAIN AND DESERTS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS MONDAY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH INTERMITTENT WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. ACARS
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A NEAR SURFACE BASED INVERSION WITH WEAK NE
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NW WINDS ALOFT. WEAKENING OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT -7 MB SAN-TPH.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN TODAY RESULTING IN A
LITTLE COOLING...MAINLY W OF THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN NW WINDS ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL DIG SE AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP AN
EDDY AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND DEEP MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE LOCAL DENSE FOG ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN MORNING. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND SUN...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE THEY COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY
STRENGTH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD ON THE DRIER DESERT SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE SUN AFTERNOON BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS W OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO MON AND A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER SUN THEN NOT A LOT OF TEMP CHANGE MON IN COOL
AND DRIER NW FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIG AND MOVE PAST TO
OUR NE BUT MODELS SHOW BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE IT WILL COME TO
SRN CA. WILL GO WITH DRY NLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH ONLY WEAK
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TUE. A LITTLE WARMER TUE AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
INCREASE. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE E PAC WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
W COAST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY GENERALLY WEAK
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. THIS WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
080930Z...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...EXPECTED CATALINA
EDDY DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY SHOULD BRING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG ANYTIME AFTER 00Z SUN TO OUR COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS MAY
START OUT BELOW FL010...BUT SHOULD SURGE INLAND AND LIFT RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT TO ABOVE FL020 BY 12Z SUN. THE STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z AND THE FOOTHILLS BY MORNING WITH TOPS
TO AROUND 3500 FT MSL. THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
080930Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY AROUND 12Z
SUN. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...A LARGE NW WIND SWELL ON THE ORDER OF
8 FEET OR MORE IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME SOUTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
THE COMBINATION OF SWELL AND WIND WILL MAKE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ON SUN OUT BEYOND 30 NM.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD
000
FXUS66 KHNX 081000
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AT THIS TIME AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS
EVENING.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY BEFORE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS HAS THE TIGHTEST SURFACE-PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT THAT TIME...
AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE REGIONS LOOKS ON TRACK.
THE 00Z GFS QPF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RFC GUIDANCE WITH YOSEMITE
VALLEY FORECAST TO GET 0.33 INCH OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS NEAR YOSEMITE
WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND 4
INCHES OF NEW SNOW LIKELY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY EXCEPT LOCALLY MORE
IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH DOWN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TONIGHT...REACHING THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS BY
12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL
STAY AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET...SO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE TEHACHAPI AND
WALKER PASSES WILL REMAIN SNOW FREE.
A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY.
THIS IMPULSE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST
AREA AS AN EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA.
500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 5760
METERS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...TO OVER 5820 METERS BY 00Z THURSDAY...AND
PEAK AROUND 5880 METERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND
HAZE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AROUND
YOSEMITE AFTER 18Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS /CAZ095-098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS65 KPSR 080948
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ) TODAY
..AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THE BIG WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO AZ. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS...GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE FAVORED EUROPEAN MODEL
DEPICTING A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...WE CANT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH PHOENIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX... GENERALLY SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL FOR SUNDAYS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FAVORED. FOR SEVERALS DAYS NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HAD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.
SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...PERHAPS PEAKING TO NEAR
40 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE ALSO LIKELY. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A DRY SOLUTION...AS THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR TUE IS MUCH
WEAKER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY. SKY HRBR AIRPORT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL VEERING TO A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE AFT 21Z. SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 15 THSD FT ARE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE DAY...THICKENING CLOUDS BY MID DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF PHOENIX. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO SHIFT GRADUALLY TO SW...THEN
WESTERLY AND GUSTY THRU SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BLWG DUST
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST THRU ABOUT 0500Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KMTR 080627
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
820 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PST FRIDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE NORTH BAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE ARE
ALSO AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY RADIATION FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP LOCALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS. WEATHER GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT WERE RECENTLY
UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO COASTAL AREAS AND NORTH BAY INTERIOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE PAC NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING APPEARS RATHER ROBUST NORTH OF 40N. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CA/OR
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE SOUTH OF 40N. LATEST NAM AND GFS INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE N BAY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 43N/137W
DIVES TO THE SE AND DIGS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CA. BUT EVEN
THEN...RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE N BAY. IN FACT...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELS...MEASURABLE
RAINFALL MAY NOT MAKE IT SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO...PARTICULARLY FOR
INLAND AREAS. POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE CWA MAY BE TOO
HIGH...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODEL QPF
MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE THIN BAND OF RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OBSERVED ON LATEST AMSU SATELLITE DISPLAY. IN ANY
EVENT...SATURDAY WILL NOT BE A WASH-OUT BY ANY MEANS AS ANY RAIN THAT
DOES FALL WILL BE SPORADIC AND MOSTLY LIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DROPS IN TO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL...
HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FROM MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NEAR THE CA COAST. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AT TIMES...
PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A TENDENCY
TO FORECAST RAIN TOO FAR SOUTH UNDER THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. SO
IT`S LIKELY THAT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. AND...IF THE UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK IS MORE PRONOUNCED
AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...TEMPERATURES COULD WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 PM PST FRIDAY...A THIN AREA OF FOG BRIEFLY
TOUCH MRY BUT HAS SINCE CLEARED OUT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW SOME
CLOUDS REFORMING OFF THE SONOMA COAST AND THESE SHOULD SPREAD TO
THE SAN MATEO COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME CLOUDS COULD MAKE
IT INTO SFO AND OAK TO WHERE SFO AND OAK COULD SEE TEMPORARY
CEILINGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 080554
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
954 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. ANOTHER
PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY MORNING. 24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ACROSS THE DISTRICT ARE RUNNING UP A FEW DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS TREND. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOK ON TRACK LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK TONIGHT AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...WITH LCL IFR IN MIST FROM 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH
16Z SATURDAY. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AROUND YOSEMITE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ095-
098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KLOX 080551
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...SOME WIND LINGERS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE QUIET WX PREVAILED OVER THE REGION.
LITTLE CHANGE CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
MILD AGAIN IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND FOOTHILLS.
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CA WILL WEAKEN THRU SAT...THEN A FAST MOVING
UPPER TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU CENTRAL AND SRN CA
LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION SUN AFTERNOON. A BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A FAIR BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE DISTRICT ON SAT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THE N MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATER SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING. MORE IMPORTANTLY NW TO N WINDS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATER SAT THRU SUN...AND A HIGH WIND
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA/VTU/L.A. MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE
LAXNPWLOX FOR DETAILS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SLO COUNTY DURING THE
PERIOD...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS WELL.
TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL TURN COOLER BY SUN WITH HIGHS FALLING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN ALL AREAS.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...FOR VETERANS DAY...EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE
NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS AS MONDAY...WITH LESS NORTHERLY WINDS.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED PROGS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY...THEN DRIFT IT TO
THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL
GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST. SO END RESULTS WILL BE DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME WEAK OFFSHORE CANYON
WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...08/0545Z...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SATURDAY.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SIRARD/THOMPSON
AVIATION...SWEET/SIRARD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 080511
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE...WITH A SECONDARY AREA
OF DEVELOPMENT APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. THE CURRENT
COMPOSITE RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME OF THESE SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INLAND TOMORROW...BEFORE DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPED
IN THE BURNEY BASIN...AND UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCLUDE
IT. AS FOR FOG FORMATION ELSEWHERE TONIGHT...THAT STILL REMAINS IN
QUESTION BECAUSE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING AND HOW THICK THEY MIGHT
BE. HOWEVER...DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE UP OVER
YESTERDAY...AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXTREMELY WEAK. THESE HIGH
CLOUDS ALSO LOOK RELATIVELY THIN AND HAVE SOME BREAKS ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THEREFORE...BELIEVE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE ABLE TO FORM IN
THE VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL DO ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD
PATCHY FOG TO THE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL FALL
EVENING. PALMER
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL RE-FORM IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THICKER
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE BURNEY BASIN...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AROUND 12Z...AND SHOWERS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 080419
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
820 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PST FRIDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE NORTH BAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE ARE
ALSO AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY RADIATION FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP LOCALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS. WEATHER GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT WERE RECENTLY
UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO COASTAL AREAS AND NORTH BAY INTERIOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE PAC NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING APPEARS RATHER ROBUST NORTH OF 40N. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CA/OR
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE SOUTH OF 40N. LATEST NAM AND GFS INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE N BAY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 43N/137W
DIVES TO THE SE AND DIGS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CA. BUT EVEN
THEN...RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE N BAY. IN FACT...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELS...MEASURABLE
RAINFALL MAY NOT MAKE IT SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO...PARTICULARLY FOR
INLAND AREAS. POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE CWA MAY BE TOO
HIGH...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODEL QPF
MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE THIN BAND OF RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OBSERVED ON LATEST AMSU SATELLITE DISPLAY. IN ANY
EVENT...SATURDAY WILL NOT BE A WASH-OUT BY ANY MEANS AS ANY RAIN THAT
DOES FALL WILL BE SPORADIC AND MOSTLY LIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DROPS IN TO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL...
HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FROM MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NEAR THE CA COAST. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AT TIMES...
PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A TENDENCY
TO FORECAST RAIN TOO FAR SOUTH UNDER THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. SO
IT`S LIKELY THAT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. AND...IF THE UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK IS MORE PRONOUNCED
AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...TEMPERATURES COULD WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A THIN
AREA OF FOG OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST GETTING SMALLER. IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SFO OR OAK DURING THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH HOUR.
COASTAL CLOUDS COULD REFORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CEILINGS MAY SPREAD
OVER THE AIRPORTS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 080401
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE CLEAR SKIES
AND LOCAL SANTA ANA BREEZES TO 25 MPH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FAST
MOVING TROUGH WILL MOVE TROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A DEEP
MARINE LAYER...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT STRONG WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. GRADUALLY WARMER AND LOCALLY
BREEZY NEXT WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
&&
UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW HOLD THROUGH SAT.
ON SUNDAY A POTENT SHORT WAVE RACES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM
THE WNW...RIDING A 100 KT JET MAX. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE DRY
AND TAKES THE WAVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE ECM...NAM AND RUC
ARE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH AND BRING UP TO .15 INCH OF
RAIN. PREFER THE GFS...BUT MUST LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
DUE TO THE TRICKY TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE ECM LOOKS TOO
RESPONSIVE AND THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE SLUGGISH WITH THE DETAILS. IN
ANY EVENT IT WILL BE COOL...CLOUDY AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY.
50KT 700 MB WEST WINDS AND 10 MB ONSHORE FLOW TO A 1000 MB SURFACE
LOW OVER VEGAS SUGGESTS HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE DESERT SLOPES LATE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER IN THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE NGM ONLY SHOWS WAD WINDS. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
LOOK OVER NEW MODELS TO DECIDE ON HIGH WIND WATCH.
CONTINUED COOL AND PARTLY CLOUDY MONDAY WITH VLY HIGHS MID 60S.
WARMER TUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF ARGUES FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A 564 UPPER LOW
INTENSIFYING OVER ARIZONA...WHICH WOULD PLACE US UNDER STRONG N FLOW
AND A POSSIBLE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT. AGAIN PREFER SMOOTHER GFS.
WILL WATCH WITH INTEREST SUN-TUE TO SEE WHICH MODEL PERFORMS THE
BEST WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. IF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ECMWF DOES
WELL...IT MAY BE GETTING VERY GOOD AT HANDLING POTENTIAL VORTICITY
GRADIENTS THAT SET UP WHEN STRONG JET STREAMS CROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
THE WEST.
WARM THE REST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE 588 UPPER HIGH AND WEAK
OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WITH VLY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
AVIATION...
080400Z...NO MARINE LAYER ISSUES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW FADES AWAY AND IS REPLACED BY A
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. RECOVERY OF THE MARINE LAYER COULD
RESULT IN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT COASTAL AIRPORTS SUCH AS
KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING INTO A STRATUS
LAYER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HORTON
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MACKECHNIE
AVIATION...HORTON
000
FXUS65 KPSR 080328
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY
SATURDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER AZ...WITH SKIES CLEAR AT 8 PM PER
THE IR IMAGERY. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE
LOW TEENS TO UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. PROGS FORECAST HIGH
PRESSURE TO PERSIST TONIGHT...AND WITH GRADIENTS WEAK NO WIND ISSUES
EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT MOSTLY
DIURNAL WINDS...AND SOMEWHAT COOL LOWS...SEEMS FINE. NO UPDATES
NEEDED. REST OF THE DISCUSSION IS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
FROM THE NORTH GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. OTHERWISE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT OR LESS THAN 12 MPH FAVORING A DIRECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST...NORTH...OR NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND ARIZONA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY SATURDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET CLOSE TO OR JUST INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THOSE AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
FROM ABOUT THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCOMING SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH DECREASING WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SUNNY AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA AIRFIELDS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH. FOR KPHX/KIWA
...EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH SPEEDS GENLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
SE CA/SW AZ...A FEW GUSTS OF 12 TO 18 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 02Z AT KBLH AND KNYL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY...FROM 5-12 MPH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KIPL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
KPHX AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB/ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KMTR 080147
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
240 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:40 PM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS EXISTS
FROM ALONG THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTS...AS WELL AS JUST WEST
OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THIS SWATH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT OUR DISTRICT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE NORTH BAY. LATEST MODELS THEN SPREAD LIGHT RAIN
SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY IN
THE EVENING. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW WITH A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED...AND THE BULK OF THAT WILL FALL IN
THE NORTH BAY.
MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY EDGING IT INTO
CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
OUR CWA DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. HAVE BROADBRUSHED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THUS NO WORRIES FOR BURN AREAS FROM THE
EVENTS THIS WEEKEND OR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A THIN
AREA OF FOG OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST GETTING SMALLER. IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SFO OR OAK DURING THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH HOUR.
COASTAL CLOUDS COULD REFORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CEILINGS MAY SPREAD
OVER THE AIRPORTS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KEKA 080114
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
514 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT. MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER STORM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUN. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE SPREADING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED ABOUT 250 MILES OFF THE OREGON COAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THESE CELLS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE PAC NW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 145+ KNOT JET NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A STRONG VORT MAX PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO
NW CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. GFS CAPE FIELDS SHOW
CAPE AROUND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -1 SAT AFTERNOON AND
SREF PLOTS INDICATE UP TO ABOUT A 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF NEGATIVE
LI VALUES. IN ADDITION...NW CALIFORNIA IS INCLUDED IN THE GENERAL
TSTM OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR SAT. ALL THESE FACTORS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE NORTH COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...H7 TEMPS DOWN
AROUND -6 TO -8 OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 4000-4500 FEET AREA-WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. KL
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER WRN NA EARLY NEXT WEEK
TRANSITIONING INTO TROUGHING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS CTL CONUS...RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS ERN PAC. MODELS
DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH OF RIDGE ACROSS THE PAC NW..BUT KEEP NW CA IN
GENERALLY W TO NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW
SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...TIME OF YEAR AND MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND ABOVE CLIMO POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BC
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED EXCEPT IN THE TRINITY AND
KLAMATH RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIRRUS COMING IN AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONT. EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT TO BEGIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. FRONTAL PASSAGE APPROXIMATELY
DAYBREAK NEAR KCEC AND KACV AND MIDMORNING AT KUKI WHICH MVFR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT. FREEZING LEVEL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL DROP FROM ABOUT 12K TONIGHT TO 6K BY LATE SAT AFTN. DEAN
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH APPROACH OF FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAMP UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SCA SPEEDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LARGE W-NW SWELL MOVING INTO
THE WATERS STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENP NOW SHOWS PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 18 FT AT 12 SECONDS...WHILE THE SWAN IS MORE
MODERATE WITH PEAK WAVES OF 15-16 FT AT 14 SECONDS. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE AS A WARNING FOR SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 12 PM
SAT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PZZ450-470.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 072341
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BROUGHT A WARM...SUNNY DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AN AREA PERSISTENT FOG OVER
BURNEY BASIN WHICH HAS REMAINED THROUGH THE DAY AND IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE ONLY MADE IT UP INTO
THE MID 40S. HIGHS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WERE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER WEATHER IS
COMING FOR THE WEEKEND.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND. COMPACT SHORTWAVE VISIBLE JUST OFF
THE COAST WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SPREADING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH 1.4 IN
PW MOISTURE PLUME NOSING INTO COAST WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z GFS
SHOWS A 150+KT JET STREAK WILL DIG DOWN THE TROUGH BRINGING GOOD
DYNAMICS AND TAPPING INTO THE MOISTURE PLUME DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM UPSLOPING ON
THE WESTERN SIERRA...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF IN THE VALLEY. NAM
AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING
IN PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT QUITE HIGH AND THEN
DROP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS COLDER AIRMASS PUSHES IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. RAIN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ONE TO TWO TENTHS IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
ABOUT HALF OF THAT FURTHER SOUTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO PASS LEVELS.
MUCH OF IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER
LEAVING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION AT PASS LEVELS. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING AROUND 40
MPH.
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ONLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN
THE VALLEY. LINGERING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE 40S BY CLOUD COVER. MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIGGLES ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH CENTRAL VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S AND MINS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL RE-FORM IN FAVORED LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURNEY BASIN. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN A LOWERING CIG DECK MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHC/SLGT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. IF
THE CLOUD DECK MOVES IN EARLY THIS WILL LIMIT THE FOG FORMATION IN
THE NORTH BUT IF IT MAY ALSO SLOW BURN OFF IN THE MORNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPSR 072328 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
428 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY
SATURDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
FROM THE NORTH GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. OTHERWISE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT OR LESS THAN 12 MPH FAVORING A DIRECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST...NORTH...OR NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND ARIZONA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY SATURDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET CLOSE TO OR JUST INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THOSE AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
FROM ABOUT THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCOMING SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH DECREASING WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SUNNY AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA AIRFIELDS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH. FOR KPHX/KIWA
...EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW...WITH SPEEDS GENLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
SE CA/SW AZ...A FEW GUSTS OF 12 TO 18 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 02Z AT KBLH AND KNYL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY...FROM 5-12 MPH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KIPL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
KPHX AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KREV 072307
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
307 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...
DISAGREEMENTS IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE TODAY BUT OVERALL
LATEST NAM NOW COMING MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF/UKMET WHILE GFS
REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVERALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
DEGREE OF SPLITTING IS MAIN DISAGREEMENT AND WITH GFS BEING
SOMEWHAT AN OUTLIER WILL TREND TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER
MODELS.
RIDGE SHOULD PUSH WELL EAST TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO IMPACT
PAC NW BY EARLY SAT. CORE OF THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW SHOULD PUSH INTO THE SIERRA SAT EVNG. AHEAD OF THE JET
AND COLD FRONT THE FIRST BAND OF PCPN IS NOTED IN MODEL DATA
AFFECTING THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS SAT MRNG. NAM IS
A BIT DRIER INITIALLY THAN OTHER MODELS BUT DOES BRING A SWATH OF
QPF OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT MRNG. AMSU
SATELLITE DATA STILL INDICATES A FINGER OF HIGHER PW STRETCHING
FROM THE CENTRAL PAC INTO THE ERN PAC OF NEAR 1.50 INCHES. NEWEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH QPF AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM JUST AROUND 0.75 INCHES TO A LITTLE BETTER THAN 1.00 INCHES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST THROUGH SUN MRNG. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...BUT SNOW LVLS WILL START QUITE HIGH AND NOT FALL
BEFORE SAT EVNG WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIMIT TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. SO PLAN NO HEADLINES FOR SNOW. INHERITED POPS LOOK GOOD
WITH CATEGORICAL OVER THE FAR NRN CWA DOWN TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN SAT EVNG...WITH MAINLY CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. PCPN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS SUN AND POSSIBLY MON AS
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT EVEN AS TROF BEGINS TO SLOWLY PRESS
TO THE EAST.
BIGGER CONCERN COULD BE WIND FROM LATE SAT AFTN THROUGH SAT EVNG.
AFTER INITIAL BAND OF PCPN MOVES THROUGH EARLY SAT...MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME PCPN LOADING ALONG THE WEST SLOPE FOR THE LATE AFTN
AND EVNG. WHILE FCST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT INDICATE ANY
CRITICAL LAYER DEVELOPMENT AT OR ABOVE THE RIDGE TOPS...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA WILL INCREASE TO JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SAT EVNG AND CONTINUE UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SAT NIGHT. BY SUN MRNG WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE.
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS IN FCST GRIDS TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA FROM RNO SOUTH. WILL NEED TO ISSUE A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR BOTH TAHOE AND PYRAMID FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS SAT EVNG. MLF
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN STORM TRACK IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF ERN CA-WRN NV
THRU NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS STILL
POSSIBLE FROM TUES-WED MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THEN
RETREATING TO INCLUDE ONLY PORTIONS OF NERN CA AND FAR NWRN NV BY
WED NIGHT. OVERALL TREND IS PUSHING THE PRECIP THREAT FARTHER
NORTH...SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE REMOVED FROM MINERAL-MONO ZONES
AND POPS IN THE NORTH WILL BE LIMITED TO SLGT CHC SHOWERS. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE TAHOE BASIN INDICATE THAT PRECIP COULD
INITIALLY START AS SNOW NEAR LAKE LEVEL LATE TUESDAY BEFORE WARM
ADVECTION PUSHES TEMPS UPWARD TUES EVENING...WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE 8000 FT BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURS-FRI...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF DATA FAVOR BUILDING
RIDGE INTO CA-NV WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS STANDS ALONE IN BRUSHING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES KEEPING PRECIP NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER AND CONSISTENT DRY SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF...BOTH DAYS
WILL BE KEPT DRY.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH UPWARD PROGRESS ON TUESDAY DUE TO
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING. LATER NEXT WEEK...SOME
VALLEY SITES COULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER OR MID 60S AS CLOUD COVER
DECREASES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FZFG IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE MORE FAVORED VALLEYS OF ERN
CA INCLUDING KTRK...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL LIKELY
REDUCE COVERAGE OF FOG COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO MORNINGS...AND
INCREASING WINDS IN THE SIERRA SHOULD DISPERSE THE FOG MORE QUICKLY
SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS THRU SAT MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH SOME LEE SIDE GUSTS ALONG THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KRNO
UP TO 40 KT AFT 21Z. FARTHER EAST TOWARD KLOL...SOME GUSTS OF 30-35
KT ARE EXPECTED BTWN 00Z-06Z. WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR SAT NIGHT EVEN DURING -SHRA...SOME IFR CIGS/VSBY ARE LIKELY IN
-SN FOR THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING KTVL-KTRK MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z-08Z
SAT EVENING. MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 072248
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
248 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD BY MORNING.
THERE HAS BEEN ONLY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...AND DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SATURDAY
MORNING EITHER. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWFA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
NEAR YOSEMITE. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN THE
SIERRA SATURDAY NIGHT...SPREADING SOUTHWARD IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WIND WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 50
MPH...SO A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING A
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY TO
BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...JUST BRUSHING
BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS
IT DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS AN INSIDE SLIDER AND KEEPS US
DRY. WITH EACH MODEL RUN IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FARTHER INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...WITH LCL IFR IN MIST FROM 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH
16Z SATURDAY. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AROUND YOSEMITE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ095-
098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 072240
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
240 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:40 PM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS EXISTS
FROM ALONG THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTS...AS WELL AS JUST WEST
OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THIS SWATH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT OUR DISTRICT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE NORTH BAY. LATEST MODELS THEN SPREAD LIGHT RAIN
SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY IN
THE EVENING. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW WITH A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED...AND THE BULK OF THAT WILL FALL IN
THE NORTH BAY.
MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY EDGING IT INTO
CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
OUR CWA DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. HAVE BROADBRUSHED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THUS NO WORRIES FOR BURN AREAS FROM THE
EVENTS THIS WEEKEND OR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PST FRIDAY...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING PATCHY FOG NEAR KSTS. EXPECT THIS FOG TO SCATTER
OUT BY 2000 UTC. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE APPARENT ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE IFR CIGS MOVE INTO THE AREA. TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA WILL SEE A COLD FRONT SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
.MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS
SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE BY 1500 UTC. WINDS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE EVENING.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 072208
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY
SATURDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
FROM THE NORTH GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. OTHERWISE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT OR LESS THAN 12 MPH FAVORING A DIRECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST...NORTH...OR NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND ARIZONA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY SATURDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET CLOSE TO OR JUST INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THOSE AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
FROM ABOUT THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCOMING SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH DECREASING WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SUNNY AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 21Z AT KBLH AND KNYL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KIPL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
KPHX AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...ROGERS/SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KPSR 072207
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY
SATURDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
FROM THE NORTH GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. OTHERWISE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT OR LESS THAN 12 MPH FAVORING A DIRECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST...NORTH...OR NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND ARIZONA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY SATURDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET CLOSE TO OR JUST INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THOSE AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
FROM ABOUT THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCOMING SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH DECREASING WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SUNNY AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 21Z AT KBLH AND KNYL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KIPL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
KPHX AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION..ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...ROGERS/SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KLOX 072202
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE WINDS. CURRENTLY...THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 12Z
MODELS INDICATING WEAKENING GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT...WILL
EXPECT THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT. SO...WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORIES EXPIRE WITH THE
MENTION OF SOME LOCAL WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. HOWEVER...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...
A VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 12Z MODELS INDICATE VERY GOOD
UPPER WIND SUPPORT. SO...SBA/VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET SOME
SIGNIFICANT NORTH WINDS...WITH WARNING LEVELS POSSIBLE. SO...
WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR SBA/VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
OTHER NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT
ARE VERY MINIMAL...EXCEPT FOR NORTH-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES WHERE
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PILE UP MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ALSO...AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP...AN EDDY
CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WITH
THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG FOR THE COASTS/VALLEYS OF VTU AND LAX COUNTIES. HOWEVER...
BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTH WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE LITTLE...IF ANY...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MIXING. THIS WILL BE A TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS FOR TEMPS...TODAY WAS A WARM DAY WITH MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS IN THE 80S. FOR SATURDAY...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY...ALL
AREAS WILL COOL TO LEVELS WELL BELOW NORMAL WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FOR VETERANS DAY...EXTENDED
MODELS INDICATE NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS AS MONDAY...WITH LESS
NORTHERLY WINDS.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED PROGS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY...THEN DRIFT IT TO
THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL
GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST. SO END RESULTS WILL BE DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME WEAK OFFSHORE CANYON
WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/2000Z.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY
AFFECT A COUPLE OF TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KOXR AND
KBUR.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SATURDAY.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 072153
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LOCAL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS TODAY. A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COOLER WEATHER...WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GRADUALLY WARMER AND LOCALLY BREEZY NEXT
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
EAST WINDS THROUGH SOME OF THE PASSES AND CANYONS. THE WINDS HAVE
REALLY BEGUN TO DROP OFF...BUT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED IN A FEW SPOTS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
WEAKENED AND ARE NOW TRENDING ONSHORE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH WIDESPREAD 80S WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
LITTLE CHANGE ON SATURDAY AS VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER SO
GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE AN ISSUE IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY
MORNING. IT WILL STILL BE WARM...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THIS TIME FROM
THE WEST AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS RAPIDLY TURN ONSHORE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
A COLD...INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS A PRETTY BIG SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION THE PATTERN
WILL UNDERGO. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A
STRONG N-S ORIENTED JET JUST OFF THE CA COAST AND A 548 DM LOW
DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NV...WHILE THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSERVATIVE
SOLUTION SHOWING A WEAKER NW-SE ORIENTED JET TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH
MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE METS AT HPC SEEM TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION
OVER THE GFS. RAISED POPS TO 20 PERCENT AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EVENT THAT
THE WESTERN TRACK VERIFIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/EDDY.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...THERE
COULD EVEN BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE SBD AND RIV COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
STRONG W-NW FLOW ALOFT COULD CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS AND OVER THE DESERT SLOPES ON SUNDAY...AND A HIGH
WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 565 DM AND COLD AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY
THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
ON MONDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF COOL WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER
WILL PASS TO OUR EAST ON TUE-WED...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST...AND POSSIBLY RESULTING IN GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW
THE PASSES AND CANYONS. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO WARM DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER HEATING BY THU-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...
072200Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH DECREASING NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AS THE
SANTA ANA EVENT FADES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN TO THE COAST SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY SHALLOW FOR A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR PERIOD...THEN
DEEPEN RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL EDDY SPINS UP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER
EAST WINDS JACKED UP MID MORNING WITH GUSTS 60 MPH IN WIND PRONE
AREAS BUT HAVE SINCE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
BETWEEN EASTERN ARIZONA TO SAN DIEGO COAST CONTINUE TO
RELAX...CURRENTLY AROUND 10 MB AND HEADING TO AROUND 6 MB THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO STRESS THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY AS DRY AIR MASS
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND THE WINDS REVERSE AND RAPIDLY INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS
LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. THE WIND GUST GUIDANCE...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS USED
VARIES BETWEEN 58 TO 75 MPH FOR THE WIND PRONE DESERT VALLEY/DESERT
SLOPE LOCATIONS/AREAS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 4000 FEET BY ALL THREE MODELS...NAM12...GFS...AND
ECMWF AND TEMPERATURES COOL 15 TO 20 DEGREES SO MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD CLIMB BACK ABOVE 25 PERCENT BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL HOURS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE ZONAL FLOW BREAKS DOWN AND A HIGH BUILDS
ALONG THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUES STRONG INTO SATURDAY
NOVEMBER 18. THOUGH THE ORIENTATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE FORECASTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR SANTA ANA WIND CONDITIONS...
A STRONG DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS CERTAIN FOR SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH FUEL MOISTURES RETURNING BACK
TO HISTORICAL LOW LEVELS DUE TO THE DRYING WITH THIS CURRENT
OFFSHORE WIND EVENT AND LITTLE TO NO WETTING RAINS COMING FROM THE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...NEXT WEEKS FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SCV
AVIATION...MGM
FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
000
FXUS66 KLOX 072004
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1205 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...OVERALL...THINGS WORKING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW THE NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE PICKING UP AS THE MORNING SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PULSE-UP IN THE WINDS...THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES LOOK
GOOD AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT 24-HOUR TRENDS...WOULD
EXPECT THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TO
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. DID UPDATE THE ZONES
EARLIER TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS FOR ZONES 40 AND 41 THIS
AFTERNOON.
QUICK LOOKS AT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...12Z MODELS ARE STILL
INDICATING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WARNING
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL EXPLORE THIS SITUATION MORE
CLOSELY WITH THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ON MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL MON AND TUE...THE SOME
WARMING SHOULD BEGIN WED AND THU AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE W CST.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TUE THROUGH WED...ENOUGH TO
WARRANT PTLY CLOUDS WORDING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN DURING THE MON
THRU THU TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...07/2000Z.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY
AFFECT A COUPLE OF TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KOXR AND
KBUR.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SATURDAY.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KEKA 071833 AAA
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1035 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING LATER TONIGHT...A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT MOSTLY
SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE TRINITY COUNTY VALLEYS. EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. KL
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT CROSSING 140
WEST NEAR 40 N. THIS TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY LIMITED TO DEL NORTE COUNTY UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY...AFTER
WHICH TIME RAINFALL WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD. RAINFALL TOTALS
PER CNRFC WILL BE AROUND 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH...EXCEPT UP TO 1.50
INCHES IN THE SMITH RIVER DRAINAGE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME GOOD
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE KING RANGE AS WELL. WITH A STRONG UPPER JET
APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO WITH A CORE SPEED OF 145
KT AND COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS...KEPT TSTM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER
THAN COSMETIC EDITS...SUCH AS BUMPING UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
SATURDAY...AND MINOR EDITS THROUGH THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. CC
.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT MON WITH NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SUPPORTING SCT SHOWERS. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATE MON/EARLY
TUE..BUT ALL FCST AN UPPER RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE ERN PAC
FROM THE SW. ECMWF/GEM BUILD THE RIDGE QUICKER THAN GFS/NOGAPS
RESULTING IN DRIER SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...TIME
OF YEAR AND MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE CLIMO
POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BC
&&
.AVIATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THUS COASTAL AIR
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE SOME LIFTING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERIOR AREAS ALSO
WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE VALLEYS IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. JT
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAMP UP SLIGHTLY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH SCA SPEEDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MEANWHILE...MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LARGE W-NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ENP SHOWS PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 17 FT AT 12
SECONDS...WHILE THE SWAN IS MORE MODERATE WITH PEAK WAVES OF 15-16
FT AT 14 SECONDS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE
AS A WARNING FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 071816
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM...SUNNY DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING A LITTLE MORE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 14 C. A
FEW SMALL PATCHES OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEY THIS MORNING
AND ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. MORE PERSISTENT FOG HAS FORMED AGAIN IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF LAKE...PLUMAS AND SHASTA COUNTIES. FOG
REMAINS DEEPLY ENTRENCHED IN THE BURNEY BASIN AREA AND WITH LITTLE
TO SCOUR IT OUT WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO EXTEND IT FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOG IN OTHER
AREAS APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING IN AREA AND SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND
NOON.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE VISIBLE AROUND 40 N 135 W
WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH 1.40 IN PW MOISTURE PLUME NOSING INTO
COAST WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z GFS SHOWS A 150+KT JET STREAK WILL DIG
DOWN THE TROUGH BRINGING GOOD DYNAMICS AND TAPPING INTO THE MOISTURE
PLUME DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE QPF WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
SIERRA AND SOUTHERN CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT QUITE HIGH
AND THEN DROP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS COLDER AIRMASS PUSHES IN. BIG
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING AS SNOW LEVELS
DROP TO PASS LEVELS. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF IT WILL
FALL PRIOR TO THIS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. EXCEPTION IS NORTH EASTERN SHASTA
COUNTY AND PARTS OF PLUMAS COUNTY WHERE AREAS OF FOG ARE PRESENT
THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AS WELL WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOWING ONLY A 1 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION. AIRMASS WARMS JUST A BIT TODAY UNDER THE RIDGE SO SHOULD
SEE JUST A BIT OF WARMING MOST AREAS TODAY. UPPER TROUGH NOW NEAR
140 WEST FORECAST TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE CWA AS EARLY AS LATE
TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. GFS MOVES
INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM TROUGH NORCAL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHILE NAM MODEL BRINGS A WEAKER AND SLOWER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
NORCAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH THIS FRONT ON THE ORDER OF ONE AND A HALF
INCHES...QPF VALUES EVEN WITH GFS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ONLY ON THE
ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO FEW 10THS OF AND INCH DUE TO LIMITED
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BY SUNDAY MORNING...SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS TRAN-SIERRA PASS LEVELS BUT LOW QPF
SHOULD MEAN THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY BRING MINIMAL HAZARD FOR
WEEKEND TRAVELERS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH STATE. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OVER CWA MONDAY BRINGING BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP THREAT.
ECMWF MID RANGE MODEL BUILDS A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CALIFORNIA NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FLATTER RIDGE AND BETTER PRECIP
THREAT OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH INCONSISTENCY IN MODELS...HAVE KEPT POPS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY
WITH MINOR MODIFICATIONS. SMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
LINGERING FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS SHUD LIFT BY MIDDAY XCPT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BURNEY BASIN WHERE IFR FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING
AND WILL NOT LIFT COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG REFORMS IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORCAL
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FOG FORMATION IN THE NORTH AS BKN100
MOVES INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071754
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
954 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:09 AM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. EXPECT THIS TO CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND MODERATELY WARM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS AND LIGHT WINDS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT OUR DISTRICT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE NORTH BAY. LATEST MODELS THEN SPREAD LIGHT RAIN
SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY BY
EVENING. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW WITH A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED...AND THE BULK OF THAT WILL FALL IN
THE NORTH BAY.
MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY EDGING IT INTO
CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS DOES BRING SOME LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS OUR CWA DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
ABOUT THE MIDWEEK PRECIP...ALTHOUGH EVEN IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...
THIS RAIN EVENT WOULD STILL BE TRIVIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PST FRIDAY...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING PATCHY FOG NEAR KSTS. EXPECT THIS FOG TO SCATTER
OUT BY 2000 UTC. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE APPARENT ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE IFR CIGS MOVE INTO THE AREA. TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA WILL SEE A COLD FRONT SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
.MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS
SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE BY 1500 UTC. WINDS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE EVENING.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 071753
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
953 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
CALIFORNIA TODAY. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
MIST/HAZE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWFA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SIERRA
NORTH OF KINGS CANYON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS
WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE SIERRA AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
KERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIND WILL BE ANOTHER
FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING A
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TRY TO
BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...JUST BRUSHING
BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS
IT DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS AN INSIDE SLIDER AND KEEPS US
DRY. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST AND HEIGHTS REMAINING
FAIRLY HIGH TUESDAY...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE DRY. WILL
RE-EVALUATE AFTER THE 12Z ECMWF COMES IN.
&&
.AVIATION...IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS
OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND HAZE FROM UNTIL 19Z
TODAY AND AGAIN AFTER 08Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7 2008... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSGX 071728
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LOCAL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS TODAY. A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COOL...PARTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER
WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
EAST WINDS BELOW THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED PASSES. WIND GUSTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 35 MPH...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN LOCAL GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH MEASURED IN A FEW SPOTS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE OFFSHORE WITH -6 MB SAN-DAG AND -2 MB SAN-TRM. THE 12Z KNKX
SOUNDING SHOWED WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 5-10 KT EASTERLY FLOW.
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS MORNING THEN
WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COOL DUE TO DRY AIR AND DECREASING WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE ON
SATURDAY AS VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY MORNING.
AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A PRETTY BIG SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION
THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION
SHOWING A STRONG N-S ORIENTED JET JUST OFF THE CA COAST AND A 550 DM
LOW DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NV...WHILE THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSERVATIVE
SOLUTION SHOWING A WEAKER NW-SE ORIENTED JET TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH
MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH. THE NAM SOLUTION IS SORT OF IN BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WITH TWO OF THE THREE MODELS INDICATING
LIGHT PRECIP...RAISED POPS TO 20 PERCENT AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SURFACE LOW/EDDY. STRONG W-NW FLOW ALOFT COULD CAUSE GUSTS TO
60 MPH ALONG THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS AND OVER THE DESERT SLOPES ON
SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE
560S AND COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON MONDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF
COOL WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...WEAK OFFSHORE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND SOME
WARMING NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO WARM DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER HEATING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
071630Z...SANTA ANA CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INLAND VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT.
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE EAST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM EASTERN ARIZONA TO SAN
DIEGO COAST WAS UP TO 15 MB THIS MORNING...AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
AND DOPPLER RADAR WIND PROFILES SHOWED A CORE OF 35 TO 40 MPH WINDS
BETWEEN 3500 AND 7000 FEET MSL. EYE-LEVEL/20 FOOT EASTERLY WINDS ARE
ABOUT 5-10 MPH HIGHER THIS MORNING...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
CURRENTLY HIGHER TOO. MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY AND THE RADIOSONDES AND RAWS CONFIRM IT. SINCE
ONLY ONE STATION...FOR ONE HOUR...AROUND MIDNIGHT...MET RED FLAG
CRITERIA. THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKENING TO
HALF AS STRONG BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUING WITH NO RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO STRESS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY AS DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND
THE WINDS REVERSE AND RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
THE STRONG FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC ALONG 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT ANALYSES
IN THIS ZONE SHOWS WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH DOWN TO THE 925 MB/2800
FT LEVEL. THIS CORE WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN BEFORE IT MOVES THIS FAR
SOUTH BUT IT IS INDICATIVE THAT THE WINDS OVER THE DESERTS AND
MOUNTAINS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND GUST GUIDANCE...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS USED
VARIES BETWEEN 58 TO 75 MPH FOR THE WIND PRONE DESERT VALLEY/DESERT
SLOPE LOCATIONS/AREAS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 4000 FEET BY ALL THREE MODELS...NAM12...GFS...AND
ECMWF AND TEMPERATURES COOL 15 TO 20 DEGREES SO MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD CLIMB BACK ABOVE 25 PERCENT BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL HOURS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. SO IN SHORT...FOCUS NEEDS TO SHIFT QUICKLY FROM WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY TO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE ZONAL FLOW BREAKS DOWN AND A HIGH BUILDS
ALONG THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUES STRONG INTO SATURDAY
NOVEMBER 18. THOUGH THE ORIENTATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE FORECASTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR SANTA ANA WIND CONDITIONS...
A STRONG DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS CERTAIN FOR SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH FUEL MOISTURES RETURNING BACK
TO HISTORICAL LOW LEVELS DUE TO THE DRYING WITH THIS CURRENT
OFFSHORE WIND EVENT AND LITTLE TO NO WETTING RAINS COMING FROM THE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...NEXT WEEKS FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SCV
AVIATION...MGM
FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071714 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES
SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE...
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
DRY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY. THERE IS
ALSO SOME WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALL
THIS IS GENERALLY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. THUS NO UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE MADE SOME FORECAST CHANGES FOR SUNDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING PHOENIX SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY
POST FRONTAL WINDS TO PERHAPS 35 MPH. THE WEATHER SERVICE IS
FOCUSING ON MORE HIGH IMPACT EVENTS NOW...AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY IT
COULD BE....STRONG GUSTY WINDS. READ ON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM (BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY) WILL BREAK DOWN
RAPIDLY SUNDAY. WEAVE BEEN EXPECTING ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF AND COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE QUESTION WAS...HOW
INTENSE.
FOR DAYS NOW...THE TWO MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS (THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN) HAVE BEEN AT ODDS ON SUNDAYS SYSTEM. BOTH MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN TRENDS...I.E. THE GFS
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND TROF BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH...AND THE
EUROPEAN A MORE INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT DYNAMIC TROF OVER CENTRAL AZ.
IN FACT...THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF 200 METERS BY 12Z SUN OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT OF CA
(JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS)...WITH ANOTHER 130 METER FALL OVER
PHOENIX BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHT FALLS OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE
SYNONYMOUS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT).
THE CHANGE IN SUNDAYS FORECAST...AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...IS DUE TO US FAVORING THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL.
EVEN THOUGH BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE EACH HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ...WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC...
LENDS CREDENCE TO THE NOTION OF SOME BUCKLING OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER AZ...SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ADDITIONALLY...THE FOLKS
AT NCEP (IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY) FAVOR THE
DEEPER EUROPEAN...ALTHOUGH THEIR CURRENT THINKING IS TO USE A BLEND
OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS AS A....JUST IN CASE CLAUSE.
SUNDAY....
A NEGATIVE TILT TROF...ALONG WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION (500 MB TEMPS FALL TO MINUS 20 C BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING) ...PORTEND GUSTY WINDS REGION WIDE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING GREATER PHOENIX...AND ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY). CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...DRY AND COOL MONDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 21Z AT KBLH AND KNYL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KIPL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
KPHX AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION..ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...ROGERS/SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071709
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
909 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:09 AM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. EXPECT THIS TO CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND MODERATELY WARM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS AND LIGHT WINDS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT OUR DISTRICT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE NORTH BAY. LATEST MODELS THEN SPREAD LIGHT RAIN
SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY BY
EVENING. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW WITH A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED...AND THE BULK OF THAT WILL FALL IN
THE NORTH BAY.
MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY EDGING IT INTO
CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS DOES BRING SOME LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS OUR CWA DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
ABOUT THE MIDWEEK PRECIP...ALTHOUGH EVEN IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...
THIS RAIN EVENT WOULD STILL BE TRIVIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY MAJOR SHORT TERM CONCERN
WILL BE DENSE FOG NORTH BAY AT KSTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD FREE SKIES
DOMINATE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT DOES INDICATE SOME STRATUS ALONG THE COAST...BUT RECENT
TRENDS KEEP IT OFF THE COAST. WILL LEAVE A BRIEF TEMPO FOG CIGS AT
KSFO AND KOAK AS SOME BL MOISTURE LINGERS...BUT DOES NOT SEEM TOO
LIKELY. SOME LOWER CIGS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE...BUT THEY SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: MEHLE
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071656
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES
SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE...
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
DRY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY. THERE IS
ALSO SOME WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALL
THIS IS GENERALLY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. THUS NO UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE MADE SOME FORECAST CHANGES FOR SUNDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING PHOENIX SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY
POST FRONTAL WINDS TO PERHAPS 35 MPH. THE WEATHER SERVICE IS
FOCUSING ON MORE HIGH IMPACT EVENTS NOW...AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY IT
COULD BE....STRONG GUSTY WINDS. READ ON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM (BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY) WILL BREAK DOWN
RAPIDLY SUNDAY. WEAVE BEEN EXPECTING ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF AND COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE QUESTION WAS...HOW
INTENSE.
FOR DAYS NOW...THE TWO MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS (THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN) HAVE BEEN AT ODDS ON SUNDAYS SYSTEM. BOTH MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN TRENDS...I.E. THE GFS
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND TROF BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH...AND THE
EUROPEAN A MORE INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT DYNAMIC TROF OVER CENTRAL AZ.
IN FACT...THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF 200 METERS BY 12Z SUN OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT OF CA
(JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS)...WITH ANOTHER 130 METER FALL OVER
PHOENIX BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHT FALLS OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE
SYNONYMOUS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT).
THE CHANGE IN SUNDAYS FORECAST...AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...IS DUE TO US FAVORING THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL.
EVEN THOUGH BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE EACH HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ...WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC...
LENDS CREDENCE TO THE NOTION OF SOME BUCKLING OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER AZ...SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ADDITIONALLY...THE FOLKS
AT NCEP (IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY) FAVOR THE
DEEPER EUROPEAN...ALTHOUGH THEIR CURRENT THINKING IS TO USE A BLEND
OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS AS A....JUST IN CASE CLAUSE.
SUNDAY....
A NEGATIVE TILT TROF...ALONG WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION (500 MB TEMPS FALL TO MINUS 20 C BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING) ...PORTEND GUSTY WINDS REGION WIDE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING GREATER PHOENIX...AND ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY). CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...DRY AND COOL MONDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS A SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS ALL DAY
WHILE FAVORING A NORTH DIRECTION. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED AT KIPL AS
RATHER WEAK GRADIENTS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THUS...GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION..ELLIS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071647
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...OVERALL...THINGS WORKING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW THE NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE PICKING UP AS THE MORNING SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PULSE-UP IN THE WINDS...THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES LOOK
GOOD AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT 24-HOUR TRENDS...WOULD
EXPECT THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TO
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. DID UPDATE THE ZONES
EARLIER TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS FOR ZONES 40 AND 41 THIS
AFTERNOON.
QUICK LOOKS AT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...12Z MODELS ARE STILL
INDICATING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WARNING
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL EXPLORE THIS SITUATION MORE
CLOSELY WITH THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ON MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL MON AND TUE...THE SOME
WARMING SHOULD BEGIN WED AND THU AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE W CST.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TUE THROUGH WED...ENOUGH TO
WARRANT PTLY CLOUDS WORDING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN DURING THE MON
THRU THU TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1330Z.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE NEAR THE KBUR AND KVNY TAF SITES THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.
KLAX...VFR CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
KBUR...VFR CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR NEAR THE AIRFIELD THIS MORNING.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071324
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
359 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...N-S GRADS HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...BUT OFFSHORE W-E
GRADS HAVE CONTD TO INCREASE. LOW LVL FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NELY THIS
MORNING...AND WDSPRD ADVISORY LVL WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE MTNS OF VTU
AND L.A. COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE. WHILE WINDS
WERE STILL ONLY LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE VALLEYS...THEY SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE ADDED
THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ADVISORY...AND WINDS COULD
EVEN APCH ADVISORY LEVELS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO
HOLLYWOOD. THERE SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST PLAIN.
OFFSHORE GRADS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT...SO EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO EDGE DOWNWARD A
BIT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...AND SFC GRADS WILL FLIP ONSHORE. HOWEVER...850/950 MB TEMPS
WILL EDGE UPWARD. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THOSE TODAY...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS...WHILE SOME COOLING WILL PROBABLY TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL
COAST SAT NIGHT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A STRONG EDDY CRCLN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WITH STRATUS RAPIDLY PUSHING INTO CSTL
AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SAT NIGHT. INCREASING N-S
GRADS ACROSS SBA COUNTY WILL LIKELY PREVENT CLOUDS FROM REACHING THE
S CST OF SBA COUNTY SAT NIGHT. SINCE THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INSIDE SLIDER...ITS SFC FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...BUT
WITH DRAMATIC HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME LIFT ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO LATE SAT NIGHT ON THE CENTRAL COAST. IN
ADDITION...WITH A DEEPENING MOIST LAYER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
AND INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SAN GABRIEL VLY FOOTHILLS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 10 PERCENT...
AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT ONE MORE MODEL RUN TO DECIDE
ABOUT ADDING PRECIP TO THE FCST.
STRONG NW TO NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS OF SBA COUNTY
SAT NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS DOWN THE
CENTRAL COAST AND A VERY STRONG NNWLY JET NOSES INTO CENTRAL CA.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
ERADICATE THE EDDY CRCLN SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME AT LEAST
PTLY CLOUDY ACRS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE L.A./VTU MTNS LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE VLYS DURING SUNDAY...WHILE GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VLY. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL
PROBABLY APPROACH IF NOT EXCEED HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS IN THE MTNS
AT SOME POINT VERY LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUNDAY. UPSLOPE NLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN MTN SLOPES SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN...A SLIGHT THREAT OF SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST
THERE. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT.
.LONG TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ON MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL MON AND TUE...THE SOME
WARMING SHOULD BEGIN WED AND THU AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE W CST.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TUE THROUGH WED...ENOUGH TO
WARRANT PTLY CLOUDS WORDING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN DURING THE
MON THRU THU TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1330Z.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE NEAR THE KBUR AND KVNY TAF SITES THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.
KLAX...VFR CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
KBUR...VFR CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AIRFIELD THIS MORNING.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071316
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
359 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...N-S GRADS HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...BUT OFFSHORE W-E
GRADS HAVE CONTD TO INCREASE. LOW LVL FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NELY THIS
MORNING...AND WDSPRD ADVISORY LVL WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE MTNS OF VTU
AND L.A. COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE. WHILE WINDS
WERE STILL ONLY LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE VALLEYS...THEY SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE ADDED
THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ADVISORY...AND WINDS COULD
EVEN APCH ADVISORY LEVELS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO
HOLLYWOOD. THERE SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST PLAIN.
OFFSHORE GRADS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT...SO EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO EDGE DOWNWARD A
BIT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...AND SFC GRADS WILL FLIP ONSHORE. HOWEVER...850/950 MB TEMPS
WILL EDGE UPWARD. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THOSE TODAY...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS...WHILE SOME COOLING WILL PROBABLY TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL
COAST SAT NIGHT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A STRONG EDDY CRCLN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WITH STRATUS RAPIDLY PUSHING INTO CSTL
AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SAT NIGHT. INCREASING N-S
GRADS ACROSS SBA COUNTY WILL LIKELY PREVENT CLOUDS FROM REACHING THE
S CST OF SBA COUNTY SAT NIGHT. SINCE THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INSIDE SLIDER...ITS SFC FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...BUT
WITH DRAMATIC HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME LIFT ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO LATE SAT NIGHT ON THE CENTRAL COAST. IN
ADDITION...WITH A DEEPENING MOIST LAYER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
AND INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SAN GABRIEL VLY FOOTHILLS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 10 PERCENT...
AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT ONE MORE MODEL RUN TO DECIDE
ABOUT ADDING PRECIP TO THE FCST.
STRONG NW TO NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS OF SBA COUNTY
SAT NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS DOWN THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO ERADICATE THE EDDY CRCLN SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME AT LEAST PTLY CLOUDY ACRS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE L.A./VTU MTNS LATE
SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE VLYS DURING
SUNDAY...WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VLY. IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS ON
SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH IF NOT EXCEED HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVELS IN THE MTNS AT SOME POINT VERY LATE SAT NIGHT OR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE NLY FLOW WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN
MTN SLOPES SUNDAY...AND AGAIN...A SLIGHT THREAT OF SHOWERS MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST THERE. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF COOLING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ON MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL MON AND TUE...THE SOME
WARMING SHOULD BEGIN WED AND THU AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE W CST.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1330Z.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE NEAR THE KBUR AND KVNY TAF SITES THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.
KLAX...VFR CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
KBUR...VFR CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AIRFIELD THIS MORNING.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KEKA 071253
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
450 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING LATER TONIGHT...A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT CROSSING 140
WEST NEAR 40 N. THIS TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY LIMITED TO DEL NORTE COUNTY UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY...AFTER
WHICH TIME RAINFALL WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD. RAINFALL TOTALS
PER CNRFC WILL BE AROUND 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH...EXCEPT UP TO 1.50
INCHES IN THE SMITH RIVER DRAINAGE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME GOOD
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE KING RANGE AS WELL. WITH A STRONG UPPER JET
APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO WITH A CORE SPEED OF 145
KT AND COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS...KEPT TSTM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER
THAN COSMETIC EDITS...SUCH AS BUMPING UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
SATURDAY...AND MINOR EDITS THROUGH THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. CC
.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT MON WITH NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SUPPORTING SCT SHOWERS. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATE MON/EARLY
TUE..BUT ALL FCST AN UPPER RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE ERN PAC
FROM THE SW. ECMWF/GEM BUILD THE RIDGE QUICKER THAN GFS/NOGAPS
RESULTING IN DRIER SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...TIME
OF YEAR AND MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE CLIMO
POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BC
&&
.AVIATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THUS COASTAL AIR
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE SOME LIFTING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERIOR AREAS ALSO
WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE VALLEYS IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. JT
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAMP UP SLIGHTLY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH SCA SPEEDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MEANWHILE...MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LARGE W-NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ENP SHOWS PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 17 FT AT 12
SECONDS...WHILE THE SWAN IS MORE MODERATE WITH PEAK WAVES OF 15-16
FT AT 14 SECONDS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE
AS A WARNING FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071244 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
544 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES
SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE...
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
DRY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WE MADE SOME FORECAST CHANGES FOR SUNDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING PHOENIX SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY
POST FRONTAL WINDS TO PERHAPS 35 MPH. THE WEATHER SERVICE IS
FOCUSING ON MORE HIGH IMPACT EVENTS NOW...AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY IT
COULD BE....STRONG GUSTY WINDS. READ ON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM (BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY) WILL BREAK DOWN
RAPIDLY SUNDAY. WEAVE BEEN EXPECTING ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF AND COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE QUESTION WAS...HOW
INTENSE.
FOR DAYS NOW...THE TWO MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS (THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN) HAVE BEEN AT ODDS ON SUNDAYS SYSTEM. BOTH MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN TRENDS...I.E. THE GFS
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND TROF BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH...AND THE
EUROPEAN A MORE INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT DYNAMIC TROF OVER CENTRAL AZ.
IN FACT...THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF 200 METERS BY 12Z SUN OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT OF CA
(JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS)...WITH ANOTHER 130 METER FALL OVER
PHOENIX BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHT FALLS OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE
SYNONYMOUS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT).
THE CHANGE IN SUNDAYS FORECAST...AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...IS DUE TO US FAVORING THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL.
EVEN THOUGH BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE EACH HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ...WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC...
LENDS CREDENCE TO THE NOTION OF SOME BUCKLING OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER AZ...SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ADDITIONALLY...THE FOLKS
AT NCEP (IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY) FAVOR THE
DEEPER EUROPEAN...ALTHOUGH THEIR CURRENT THINKING IS TO USE A BLEND
OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS AS A....JUST IN CASE CLAUSE.
SUNDAY....
A NEGATIVE TILT TROF...ALONG WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION (500 MB TEMPS FALL TO MINUS 20 C BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING) ...PORTEND GUSTY WINDS REGION WIDE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING GREATER PHOENIX...AND ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY). CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...DRY AND COOL MONDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS A SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS ALL DAY
WHILE FAVORING A NORTH DIRECTION. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED AT KIPL AS
RATHER WEAK GRADIENTS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THUS...GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND MAY REACH 35 MPH IN GUSTS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH THE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 132 AND ALL OF ZONE
133 HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071242
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
359 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...N-S GRADS HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...BUT OFFSHORE W-E
GRADS HAVE CONTD TO INCREASE. LOW LVL FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NELY THIS
MORNING...AND WDSPRD ADVISORY LVL WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE MTNS OF VTU
AND L.A. COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE. WHILE WINDS
WERE STILL ONLY LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE VALLEYS...THEY SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE ADDED
THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ADVISORY...AND WINDS COULD
EVEN APCH ADVISORY LEVELS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO
HOLLYWOOD. THERE SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST PLAIN.
OFFSHORE GRADS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT...SO EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO EDGE DOWNWARD A
BIT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...AND SFC GRADS WILL FLIP ONSHORE. HOWEVER...850/950 MB TEMPS
WILL EDGE UPWARD. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THOSE TODAY...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS...WHILE SOME COOLING WILL PROBABLY TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL
COAST SAT NIGHT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A STRONG EDDY CRCLN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WITH STRATUS RAPIDLY PUSHING INTO CSTL
AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SAT NIGHT. INCREASING N-S
GRADS ACROSS SBA COUNTY WILL LIKELY PREVENT CLOUDS FROM REACHING THE
S CST OF SBA COUNTY SAT NIGHT. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN INSIDE
SLIDER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...BUT WITH
DRAMATIC HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME LIFT ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO LATE SAT NIGHT ON THE CENTRAL COAST. IN
ADDITION...WITH A DEEPENING MOIST LAYER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
AND INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SAN GABRIEL VLY. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 10 PERCENT...AND WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT ONE MORE MODEL TO DECIDE ABOUT ADDING
PRECIP TO THE FCST.
STRONG NW TO NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS OF SBA COUNTY
SAT NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS DOWN THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO ERADICATE THE EDDY CRCLN SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME AT LEAST PTLY CLOUDY ACRS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING THE L.A./VTU MTNS LATE SAT
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE VLYS DURING
SUNDAY...WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VLY. IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS ON
SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH IF NOT EXCEED HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVELS IN THE MTNS AT SOME POINT VERY LATE SAT NIGHT OR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE NLY FLOW WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN
MTN SLOPES...AND AGAIN...A SLIGHT THREAT OF SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE
ADDED TO THE FCST THERE. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF COOLING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ON MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL MON AND TUE...THE SOME
WARMING SHOULD BEGIN WED AND THU AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE W CST.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1330Z.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE NEAR THE KBUR AND KVNY TAF SITES THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.
KLAX...VFR CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
KBUR...VFR CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AIRFIELD THIS MORNING.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 071220
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. EXCEPTION IS NORTH EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY
AND PARTS OF PLUMAS COUNTY WHERE AREAS OF FOG ARE PRESENT THIS
MORNING. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AS
WELL WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOWING ONLY A 1 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION. AIRMASS WARMS JUST A BIT TODAY UNDER THE RIDGE SO
SHOULD SEE JUST A BIT OF WARMING MOST AREAS TODAY. UPPER TROUGH NOW
NEAR 140 WEST FORECAST TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE CWA AS EARLY AS LATE
TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. GFS MOVES
INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM TROUGH NORCAL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHILE NAM MODEL BRINGS A WEAKER AND SLOWER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
NORCAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH THIS FRONT ON THE ORDER OF ONE AND A HALF
INCHES...QPF VALUES EVEN WITH GFS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ONLY ON THE
ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO FEW 10THS OF AND INCH DUE TO LIMITED
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BY SUNDAY MORNING...SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS TRAN-SIERRA PASS LEVELS BUT LOW QPF
SHOULD MEAN THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY BRING MINIMAL HAZARD FOR
WEEKEND TRAVELERS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH STATE. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OVER CWA MONDAY BRINGING BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP THREAT.
ECMWF MID RANGE MODEL BUILDS A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CALIFORNIA NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FLATTER RIDGE AND BETTER PRECIP
THREAT OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH INCONSISTENCY IN MODELS...HAVE KEPT POPS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY
WITH MINOR MODIFICATIONS. SMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR BR EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BURNEY BASIN AND
IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ALMANOR AND CLEAR LAKE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE SATURDAY. DANG
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071219
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
419 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:50 AM PST FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. SATL IMAGERY INDC THAT THE STRATUS OFFSHORE IS MOVING
SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS THIS MORNING
ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S DISTRICT WIDE. THE GRADIENT PICTURE INDC A
NORTHERLY GRADIENT OF 2.3 MB BETWEEN ARCATA-SFO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SFO-SAC IS SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AT 0.2 MB.
A SHORTWAVE NEAR 40/140 WILL MOVE TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST BY SAT
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE COAST
IT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING PER
THE ECMWF...OR INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PER THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE OF SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER TIMEHEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDC DECENT MOISTURE...DECENT OMEGA...AND SOME
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH OF SAN JOSE SAT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. SAT
NIGHT HAVE CHC OR SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR
EAST. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AS WEAK RIDGING
PUSHES THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTRICT. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY MAJOR SHORT TERM CONCERN
WILL BE DENSE FOG NORTH BAY AT KSTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD FREE SKIES
DOMINATE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT DOES INDICATE SOME STRATUS ALONG THE COAST...BUT RECENT
TRENDS KEEP IT OFF THE COAST. WILL LEAVE A BRIEF TEMPO FOG CIGS AT
KSFO AND KOAK AS SOME BL MOISTURE LINGERS...BUT DOES NOT SEEM TOO
LIKELY. SOME LOWER CIGS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE...BUT THEY SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: MEHLE
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KREV 071138
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
338 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO AREAS OF
FOG FROM TRUCKEE NORTH THROUGH LASSEN COUNTY THIS MORNING. I HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS AS A HEADS UP FOR THE TRUCKEE AREA WITH ESPECIALLY
DENSE FOG EVIDENCED BY THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT OBSERVATION AND WEB
CAMS FROM ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 80. FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 10
AM.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 45N/165W
APPROACHES THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS
OF THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS/NAM INDICATED RATHER LARGE
DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES
INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN CASE YOU DON`T KNOW...THE DEGREE AND
TIMING OF SYSTEM SPLITTING STRONGLY AFFECTS PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE...I KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING SOUTH AND EAST
OF NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER A
SOLID BAND OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM THE
SIERRA/NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INTO THE REST OF THE CWA. AS AN
AFTERTHOUGHT...THE 06Z GFS AND NAM SEEM TO AGREE WITH A FURTHER
NORTH AND LESS "SPLITTY" SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONGER
MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SHIFT CAN
RE-ANALYZE THE DATA AS SEE IF POPS CAN BE RAISED IN THE BASIN.
MEANWHILE FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND OUT INTO LASSEN AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY...I REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE SATURDAY WITH TIMING AN
ISSUE AS TO WHETHER PRECIP WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS REDUCTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE SREF PROBABILISTIC QPF. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SREF IS FIRMLY SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND NAM
WITH LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA...SO I UPPED
POPS THERE.
AS FAR AS SNOW LEVELS...THEY LOOK QUITE HIGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A MODERATE PWAT TAP OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES WASHING
OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK.
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL DOWN TO 5000 TO
5500 FEET NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW DRIVES INTO
NEVADA.
WIND IS ANOTHER CONCERN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM`S COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG HIGHWAY 395 SOUTH OF RENO. THE
NAM SHOWS PRECIP/MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE SIERRA CREST
SOUTH OF RENO...WHICH WOULD AID IN INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...I NUDGED UP THE WIND GRIDS SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SIERRA
FRONT TO INDICATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM JAMS ON BY INTO
EASTERN NEVADA...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED UNDER
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO FORECAST. STRONG PACIFIC JET STILL PROGGED
TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH
DYNAMICS/HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ON THE PACNW/NRN ROCKIES
DURING PERIOD. FLAT RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ONCE
UPPER LOW EXITS MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE WEIGHT BEING PLACED ON THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF
WHICH BRINGS IN A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY MONDAY AND HOLDS TROUGH
BACK OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO TUESDAY. FURTHER DIFFERENCES
ARISE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT WITH THE ECMWF BECOMING
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING/DRYING. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER
CONTINUITY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED. CLOUDINESS WILL GENERALLY BE
EXTENSIVE WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UPWARDS WITH THE WARMEST DAY TO BE
THURSDAY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND FLAT RIDGE/DRYING TAKE
CONTROL OF AREA. HOHMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL PERSIST IN SOME SIERRA VALLEY LOCATIONS
WITH KTRK LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ALL MINIMUMS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
FREEZING FOG WILL BE MORE PATCHY AROUND KTVL WITH VSBY OCCASIONALLY
FALLING BELOW MINIMUMS. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. NEXT
TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071134
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
334 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
UPDATED AVIATION...AT 3:30 AM
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY
SKIES TODAY ALLOWED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES ABOVE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
70S. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO WARMER WITH 40S AND 50S MANY
PLACES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST
AND NOW MOVING ACROSS POINT REYES INTO THE NORTH BAY...AS WELL AS
SIDLING ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COASTLINE. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT ONSHORE...SO A WIDESPREAD INLAND
FOG INTRUSION IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY
FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES. THE TAIL END OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY SPREADING
RAIN CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BAY AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS PER THE LATEST
CNRFC GUIDANCE. RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY...SPREAD SOUTH REACHING SAN FRANCISCO BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS SANTA CRUZ BY SATURDAY
EVENING. RAINFALL ESTIMATES BRING A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
THE NORTH BAY...UP TO A TENTH AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE
A NON-EVENT OVER OUR VARIOUS BURN AREAS.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS
HAVE SPLIT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING ANOTHER
SYSTEM INTO THE PACNW COAST ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT
ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CPC/CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH KEEP THE RAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND BUILD THE RIDGE IN STRONGER AND QUICKER. WENT MORE FOR THE
CPC/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO ITS RECENT STRONG PERFORMANCE
WHICH MEANS THAT VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST AND THE
HIGHEST VALUES WERE PLACED NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. EVEN IF THE GFS
DOES ENDING UP BEING THE MODEL THAT HANDLES THIS EVENT THE BEST...
RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT OVER THE BURN AREAS. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION
WOULD ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY MAJOR SHORT TERM CONCERN
WILL BE DENSE FOG NORTH BAY AT KSTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD FREE SKIES
DOMINATE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT DOES INDICATE SOME STRATUS ALONG THE COAST...BUT RECENT
TRENDS KEEP IT OFF THE COAST. WILL LEAVE A BRIEF TEMPO FOG CIGS AT
KSFO AND KOAK AS SOME BL MOISTURE LINGERS...BUT DOES NOT SEEM TOO
LIKELY. SOME LOWER CIGS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE...BUT THEY SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/ANDERSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MEHLE
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070943
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
242 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES
SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE...
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
DRY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WE MADE SOME FORECAST CHANGES FOR SUNDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING PHOENIX SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY
POST FRONTAL WINDS TO PERHAPS 35 MPH. THE WEATHER SERVICE IS
FOCUSING ON MORE HIGH IMPACT EVENTS NOW...AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY IT
COULD BE....STRONG GUSTY WINDS. READ ON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM (BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY) WILL BREAK DOWN
RAPIDLY SUNDAY. WEVE BEEN EXPECTING ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF AND COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE QUESTION WAS...HOW
INTENSE.
FOR DAYS NOW...THE TWO MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS (THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN) HAVE BEEN AT ODDS ON SUNDAYS SYSTEM. BOTH MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN TRENDS...I.E. THE GFS
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND TROF BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH...AND THE
EUROPEAN A MORE INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT DYNAMIC TROF OVER CENTRAL AZ.
IN FACT...THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF 200 METERS BY 12Z SUN OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT OF CA
(JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS)...WITH ANOTHER 130 METER FALL OVER
PHOENIX BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHT FALLS OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE
SYNONYMOUS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT).
THE CHANGE IN SUNDAYS FORECAST...AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...IS DUE TO US FAVORING THE STRONGER EUROPEAN MODEL.
EVEN THOUGH BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE EACH HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ...WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC...
LENDS CREDENCE TO THE NOTION OF SOME BUCKLING OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER AZ...SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ADDITIONALLY...THE FOLKS
AT NCEP (IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION YESTERDAY) FAVOR THE
DEEPER EUROPEAN...ALTHOUGH THEIR CURRENT THINKING IS TO USE A BLEND
OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS AS A....JUST IN CASE CLAUSE.
SUNDAY....
A NEGATIVE TILT TROF...ALONG WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION (500 MB TEMPS FALL TO MINUS 20 C BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING) ...PORTEND GUSTY WINDS REGION WIDE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING GREATER PHOENIX...AND ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY). CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...DRY AND COOL MONDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. AGAIN...THERE IS
MUCH DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS IN THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PHOENIX AREA
AIRFIELDS TODAY AS A SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER UTAH.
SE CA/SW AZ...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS ALL DAY
WHILE FAVORING A NORTH DIRECTION. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED AT KIPL AS
RATHER WEAK GRADIENTS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THUS...GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
MAY ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KPHX AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE CRITERIA MET. BY MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KHNX 070940
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO OREGON
THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT EPISODE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WILL REMAIN
UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN FALLING SATURDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...FALLING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE
TROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM
THAN THE GFS OR NAM. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...PRECIPITATION COULD
SPREAD DOWN TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING...
WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT BRING THE PRECIPITATION THAT FAR SOUTH
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EARLIER 12Z ECMWF RUN...SO COULD SEE SOME
MODEL CHANGES IN THE NEXT RUN OR TWO.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER WITH THIS TROUGH...AND BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS MOS GUIDANCES HAVE MEASURABLE POPS FOR MERCED SATURDAY
EVENING. HAVE TRENDED POPS FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY A BIT HIGHER NORTH
OF FRESNO...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFS. THE GFS AND NAM DIG THE
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SUNDAY...SO ANY VALLEY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK.
SURFACE-PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THE GUSTY WINDS.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS AN EAST-
PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS. A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND DROP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS
OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND HAZE FROM 12Z-19Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7 2008...FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO COUNTY. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
VALLEYAIR.ORG.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KLOX 070542 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
942 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.UPDATE...WINDS SEEM TO BE BEHAVING TONIGHT OVER THE AREA AND WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JUDGING BY
THE LATEST NAM-WRF SURFACE GRADIENTS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
WINDS MAY DROP OFF A LITTLE SOONER ON FRIDAY. NAM-WRF 950 MB
THERMAL GRADIENTS AGREE WELL WITH THIS IDEA...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS STAY UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN LEFT UNCHANGED AT THIS POINT TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL
DATA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CURRENT
PACKAGE LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT THINKING AND MODEL DATA
ARRIVING CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES OVER MOST AREAS WILL BUMP UP
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY. SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BEA COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
PACKAGE AS KSMX-KBFL GRADIENTS ARE BEING UNDERDONE WITH THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM-WRF SURFACE GRADIENTS...AND THE CENTRAL
COAST CONTINUES TO TREND OFFSHORE CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED BY THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT SHOULD THIS OFFSHORE
TREND PERSIST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE OFFSHORE REGIME BREAKING
DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT NAM-WRF 950 MB AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH NAM-WRF...GFS...AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS DELAYING THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD UNTIL AFTER
SATURDAY EVENING...AND NAM-WRF AND GFS SURFACE PATTERN INDICATING
A THERMAL TROUGH AXIS NEAR OR OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE SATURDAY BEING MUCH COOLER THAN
FRIDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AN ARGUMENT COULD BE
MADE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THIS
APPEARS TO BE A DIVERGENCE FROM THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...NEXT SHIFT
WILL BE BRIEFED FOR A POSSIBLE TREND SHIFT.
A RAPID-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO ARRIVE ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
FRONT...SOME MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...AND SLIGHT 500 MB COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE...SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE VALID FOR
THIS EVENT...OR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...JUST
INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MARINE LAYER REDEVELOPMENT OR ENHANCEMENT
MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT OCCURS. NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN
WILL GET A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AS WELL WITH OROGRAPHICS PLAYING
INTO THE EQUATION.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...OVER SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...AND THROUGH I-5 CORRIDOR. MODELS SOLUTION LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND
EVENT. NAM-WRF AND GFS 850 MB WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND FAVORABLE THERMAL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
FRONT. NAM-WRF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INDICATE 40 KNOTS WINDS
THROUGH I-5 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...IN THE SHORT TERM...FOCUS
WILL BE ON THE OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z GFS AND WRF
INDICATE CONTINUED MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AS FOR UPPER SUPPORTS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS AT
950/850 MB FRIDAY MORNING THAN THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE STRONGER
UPPER SUPPORT...WILL EXPECT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES. EARLIER TODAY...EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS
UNTIL 300 PM FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH (MOUNTAINS) AND 45 MPH
(VALLEYS). THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NICE
WARM TEMPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST
COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS IN THE 80S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT
IS MUCH WEAKER...SO ONLY LOCAL CANYON WINDS EXPECTED WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VALLEYS.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE A VERY WEAK FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP ON NORTH-FACING SLOPES. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION
SOME VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...LIKELY REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY WARNING LEVELS
IN SOME AREAS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW MAY SPIN UP AN EDDY WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM ZIPS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS AS POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT
GREAT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR THE SURFACE
A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. SO...WILL EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPS AND SOME WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/0542Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND/OR TURBULENCE ISSUES EXPECTED AT KBUR AND KVNY
THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO WIND
ISSUES EXPECTED.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH 08Z. MODERATE TURBULENCE ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
HALL/THOMPSON
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 070522
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH MORE CLOUDS
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
CLEAR SKIES...WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSIST FOR ONE MORE
DAY. THIS EVENING...OFFSHORE WINDS REMAIN LOCALIZED WITH THE WIND
PRONE AREAS ONLY GUSTING OCCASIONALLY INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SURFACE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PUSH
THEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL PEAK AT
AROUND 40-45 MPH AT THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...AND THAT SHOULD KEEP US
SHY OF THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE
WINDS OF TODAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EASTERLY SHIFT IN DIRECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MORE FRIDAY. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE DRY AIR IN THOSE AREAS WITH
CALM WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH CA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT OR AT LEAST IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION OR NOT...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS TO REMAIN
JUST BARELY ON THE DRY SIDE. THE MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND A DEEP
BUT DISRUPTED MARINE LAYER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR FAIR
AND WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
070400Z...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOCAL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AND
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS WITH ASSOCIATED UP AND DOWN DRAFTS
AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY VICINITY KONT...KCNO AND
KRAL.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION...HORTON
000
FXUS66 KSTO 070508
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
CALIFORNIA. THE FEW EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE BURNEY BASIN...THE FAR
NORTHERN BASINS AND VALLEYS...AND THE NORTHWEST COAST WERE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN. TONIGHT WILL BE AN INTERESTING NIGHT...AS A
DRYING NORTHEAST TO EAST GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE KDAX VAD IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME NORTH WINDS TO 35
KNOT AT 2000 FEET. HOWEVER...THE INVERSIONS ARE ALREADY SETTING UP
FOR THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
BASINS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THESE AREAS TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THIS MAY EVEN CROSS INTO THE COASTAL
RANGE...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR CLEAR LAKE AND IN SOME OF
THE PROTECTED VALLEYS. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN A FEW AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TOMORROW TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
850 TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY AS MUCH AS 3 DEGREES OVER THE REGION
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. IN THE UPDATE...DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES A
BIT FOR TOMORROW TO FOLLOW WITH THIS LINE OF THINKING.
HOWEVER...HAVE LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE BURNEY BASIN AND THE
CHESTER REGION OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER AND LIMIT THE WARM UP ONCE AGAIN. PALMER
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN BR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN SAC AND NRN SJ VALLEYS
BETWEEN 12-16Z. IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE BURNEY BASIN AND IN
THE VICINITY OF LAKE ALMANOR AND CLEAR LAKE. EXPECT FOG TO ERODE
BETWEEN 20-22Z.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 070446
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
846 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.UPDATE...WINDS SEEM TO BE BEHAVING TONIGHT OVER THE AREA AND WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JUDGING BY
THE LATEST NAM-WRF SURFACE GRADIENTS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
WINDS MAY DROP OFF A LITTLE SOONER ON FRIDAY. NAM-WRF 950 MB
THERMAL GRADIENTS AGREE WELL WITH THIS IDEA...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS STAY UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN LEFT UNCHANGED AT THIS POINT TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL
DATA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CURRENT
PACKAGE LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT THINKING AND MODEL DATA
ARRIVING CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES OVER MOST AREAS WILL BUMP UP
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY. SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BEA COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
PACKAGE AS KSMX-KBFL GRADIENTS ARE BEING UNDERDONE WITH THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM-WRF SURFACE GRADIENTS...AND THE CENTRAL
COAST CONTINUES TO TREND OFFSHORE CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED BY THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT SHOULD THIS OFFSHORE
TREND PERSIST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE OFFSHORE REGIME BREAKING
DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT NAM-WRF 950 MB AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH NAM-WRF...GFS...AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS DELAYING THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD UNTIL AFTER
SATURDAY EVENING...AND NAM-WRF AND GFS SURFACE PATTERN INDICATING
A THERMAL TROUGH AXIS NEAR OR OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE SATURDAY BEING MUCH COOLER THAN
FRIDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AN ARGUMENT COULD BE
MADE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THIS
APPEARS TO BE A DIVERGENCE FROM THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...NEXT SHIFT
WILL BE BRIEFED FOR A POSSIBLE TREND SHIFT.
A RAPID-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO ARRIVE ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
FRONT...SOME MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...AND SLIGHT 500 MB COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE...SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE VALID FOR
THIS EVENT...OR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...JUST
INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MARINE LAYER REDEVELOPMENT OR ENHANCEMENT
MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT OCCURS. NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN
WILL GET A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AS WELL WITH OROGRAPHICS PLAYING
INTO THE EQUATION.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...OVER SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...AND THROUGH I-5 CORRIDOR. MODELS SOLUTION LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND
EVENT. NAM-WRF AND GFS 850 MB WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND FAVORABLE THERMAL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
FRONT. NAM-WRF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INDICATE 40 KNOTS WINDS
THROUGH I-5 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...IN THE SHORT TERM...FOCUS
WILL BE ON THE OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z GFS AND WRF
INDICATE CONTINUED MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AS FOR UPPER SUPPORTS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS AT
950/850 MB FRIDAY MORNING THAN THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE STRONGER
UPPER SUPPORT...WILL EXPECT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES. EARLIER TODAY...EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS
UNTIL 300 PM FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH (MOUNTAINS) AND 45 MPH
(VALLEYS). THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NICE
WARM TEMPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST
COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS IN THE 80S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT
IS MUCH WEAKER...SO ONLY LOCAL CANYON WINDS EXPECTED WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VALLEYS.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE A VERY WEAK FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP ON NORTH-FACING SLOPES. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION
SOME VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...LIKELY REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY WARNING LEVELS
IN SOME AREAS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW MAY SPIN UP AN EDDY WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM ZIPS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS AS POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT
GREAT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR THE SURFACE
A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. SO...WILL EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPS AND SOME WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/0007Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND/OR TURBULENCE ISSUES EXPECTED AT KOXR...KBUR...AND
KVNY.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO WIND
ISSUES EXPECTED.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ISSUES EXPECTED AT KBUR THROUGH 08Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
HALL/THOMPSON
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 070446
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
845 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY
SKIES TODAY ALLOWED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES ABOVE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
70S. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO WARMER WITH 40S AND 50S MANY
PLACES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST
AND NOW MOVING ACROSS POINT REYES INTO THE NORTH BAY...AS WELL AS
SIDLING ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COASTLINE. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT ONSHORE...SO A WIDESPREAD INLAND
FOG INTRUSION IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY
FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES. THE TAIL END OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY SPREADING
RAIN CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BAY AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS PER THE LATEST
CNRFC GUIDANCE. RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY...SPREAD SOUTH REACHING SAN FRANCISCO BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS SANTA CRUZ BY SATURDAY
EVENING. RAINFALL ESTIMATES BRING A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
THE NORTH BAY...UP TO A TENTH AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE
A NON-EVENT OVER OUR VARIOUS BURN AREAS.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS
HAVE SPLIT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING ANOTHER
SYSTEM INTO THE PACNW COAST ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT
ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CPC/CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH KEEP THE RAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND BUILD THE RIDGE IN STRONGER AND QUICKER. WENT MORE FOR THE
CPC/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO ITS RECENT STRONG PERFORMANCE
WHICH MEANS THAT VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST AND THE
HIGHEST VALUES WERE PLACED NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. EVEN IF THE GFS
DOES ENDING UP BEING THE MODEL THAT HANDLES THIS EVENT THE BEST...
RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT OVER THE BURN AREAS. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION
WOULD ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PST THURSDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH HOUR. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW STRATUS OFF THE COAST FROM PT
REYES NORTH ADVANCING SOUTHWARD. SHOULD REACH THE SAN MATEO COAST
LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SFO AND OAK EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL AS THE MRY BAY AREA TERMINALS. THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT STS OVERNIGHT.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/ANDERSON
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070440
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
940 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING MOST NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA...AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
SUNDAY. SUBSEQUENT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THIS EVENING TO THE SHORT-TERM
DATABASE...MAINLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST...CENTERED
ACROSS WRN CO...WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT NE-SW SURFACE GRADIENT TONIGHT
ACROSS AZ. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT/MORNING BREEZINESS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS UP A HANDFUL OF DEGREES...SO MIN TEMPS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL.
PROGS AGREE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER AZ FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOR CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS SAT MORNING SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL NICELY...AND PROBABLY BE LOWER IN MANY SPOTS THAN
TONIGHTS LOWS. GRADUAL MIXING EACH DAY SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
RISE AND THEY SHOULD REACH TO ABOUT SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY...THEN RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...AND DRY...SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SRN
NV/CA AND ACROSS AZ ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS RUN IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE ALL BEEN OF A
SIMILAR NATURE. EURO IS DEEPER THAN GFS...AND BASED ON RECENT TRACK
RECORD AND HPC MODEL DISCUSSION...TEND TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION.
IN EITHER CASE THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY FOR US AND AS SUCH WE WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER SRN GILA COUNTY. WE
HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP A BIT...SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS GRADIENTS
REALLY TIGHTEN. AND WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALUES FOR MAX TEMPS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST
OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS. AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS OFF TO OUR EAST
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...DRIER SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. THUS MONDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WE HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS MONDAY 3-5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS FORECAST.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EUROPEAN AND GFS DIVERGE A BIT BUT BOTH
SUGGEST TROFFING WILL MOVE THRU THE WEST...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE A
BIT UNSETTLED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MANY MEMBERS SHOW EITHER OPEN
WAVE OR EVEN CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT
THE CLIMO POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY. THESE POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE MEX MOS
NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST BY BOTH PROGS FOR THURSDAY...SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A BIT
OF A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
PHOENIX METRO AREA...LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.
SE CA/SW AZ...WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING DOWN THE
CO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHTER N-NW WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FRI.
LOOKING AHEAD...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING WIND
SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE CRITERIA MET. BY MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/CB
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KHNX 070401
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
801 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
INTERIOR CENTRAL CA HAS CLEAR SKIES UNDER A BUILDING SHORT WAVE
RIDGE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER INVERSION
SETTING UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS PATCHY AREAS OF FOG FORMING AROUND
SUNRISE. CURRENT TEMPS IN THE VALLEY ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...WITH DEW POINTS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO UPDATE
TONIGHT.
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMER HIGHS FRIDAY...UP 3 TO 5
DEGREES IN THE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE CENTRAL SIERRA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...TEMPS WILL RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN HZ/BR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
UNTIL 15Z FRIDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7 2008... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BENTZIEN
AVN/FW...DURFEE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 070148
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
220 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:20 PM PST THURSDAY...LIGHT RAIN FOR SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA.
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH SUNSHINE
FROM TOP TO BOTTOM AND MOST PLACE GETTING INTO THE 60S
TO MID 70S. SKIES HAVE BEEN CRYSTAL CLEAR ON BOTH THE
SATELLITE AND VARIOUS WEBCAMS IN OUR AREA. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
EXCEPT FOR POCKETS IN THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS ALONG THE EAST BAY
HILLS WHERE A FEW PLACES ARE GUSTING OVER 15 MPH. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE E TO W GRADIENT REMAINS NEUTRAL WHILE THE NORTHERLY ONE HAS
JUMPED UP TO 2 MB.
FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH FOG...IF ANY...WILL FORM
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WHILE WINDS IN THE VALLEY
WILL BE NEARLY CALM ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COMBINATION
WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES AND ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM. BASED
ON THE PATTERN AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS
WILL IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEY ALONG WITH SF BAY INCLUDING THE CITY
OF SAN FRANCISCO AND KSFO. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE NORTH BAY
WHILE LESS AROUND SF BAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE
LIKELY FOR FOG AROUND SAN FRANCISCO SO SEEMED PRUDENT TO AT LEAST
MENTION IT IN THE GRIDS.
SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM STILL WELL OFF THE COAST APPROACHES THE
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. RAIN WILL IN NAPA/SONOMA AS EARLY
AS NOON ON SATURDAY...SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND HIT SAN FRANCISCO BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS SANTA CRUZ ON
SATURDAY EVENING. RAINFALL ESTIMATES BRING A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO NAPA/SONOMA...A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH AROUND SF BAY AND
JUST A SPRINKLE FOR POINTS TO THE SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT
OVER OUR VARIOUS BURN AREAS. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
STORM...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE PACNW
COAST ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE CPC/CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH KEEP THE RAIN TO OUR NORTH AND BUILD THE
RIDGE IN STRONGER AND QUICKER. WENT MORE FOR THE CPC/CANADIAN/ECMWF
SOLUTION DUE TO ITS RECENT STRONG PERFORMANCE WHICH MEANS THAT VERY
LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST AND THE HIGHEST VALUES WERE
PLACED NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. EVEN IF THE GFS DOES ENDING UP BEING
THE MODEL THAT HANDLES THIS EVENT THE BEST...RAIN SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THE BURN AREAS. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION
WOULD ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PST THURSDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH HOUR. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW STRATUS OFF THE COAST FROM PT
REYES NORTH ADVANCING SOUTHWARD. SHOULD REACH THE SAN MATEO COAST
LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SFO AND OAK EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL AS THE MRY BAY AREA TERMINALS. THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL AALOW RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT STS OVERNIGHT.
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST (TAFS) FORMAT CHANGE...
AS OF 0000Z (NOVEMBER 5, 2008) THE NWS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAA HAS
CHANGED THE TAF FORMAT TO CONFORM TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS OUTLINED
IN ICAO ANNEX 3. THE CHANGE INCLUDES THE INITIATING OF 30-HOUR TAFS
FOR HIGH IMPACT U.S. AIRPORTS. TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD...THE FORMAT OF ALL TAFS HAVE CHANGED. THE CHANGE INVOLVES
IDENTIFYING THE DATA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TIME GROUP.
KSFO AND KOAK ARE NOW 30-HOUR TAFS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE CHANGE PLEASE VISIT THE
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER`S WEBSITE:
HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.NOAA.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070131
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
630 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING MOST NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA...AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
SUNDAY. SUBSEQUENT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SKIES CLEAR AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER
TEENS OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 15-25
DEGREES BEHIND YESTERDAY MOST LOCALES. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOL MORNING TONIGHT...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH ARE EXPECTED. STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST...CENTERED ACROSS WRN CO...WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT NE-SW
SURFACE GRADIENT TONIGHT ACROSS AZ. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LATE
NIGHT/MORNING BREEZINESS WHICH SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS UP A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES...SO MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THEIR TRUE
POTENTIAL.
PROGS AGREE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER AZ FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOR CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS SAT MORNING SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL NICELY...AND PROBABLY BE LOWER IN MANY SPOTS THAN
TONIGHTS LOWS. GRADUAL MIXING EACH DAY SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
RISE AND THEY SHOULD REACH TO ABOUT SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY...THEN RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...AND DRY...SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SRN
NV/CA AND ACROSS AZ ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS RUN IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE ALL BEEN OF A
SIMILAR NATURE. EURO IS DEEPER THAN GFS...AND BASED ON RECENT TRACK
RECORD AND HPC MODEL DISCUSSION...TEND TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION.
IN EITHER CASE THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY FOR US AND AS SUCH WE WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER SRN GILA COUNTY. WE
HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP A BIT...SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS GRADIENTS
REALLY TIGHTEN. AND WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALUES FOR MAX TEMPS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST
OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS. AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS OFF TO OUR EAST
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...DRIER SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. THUS MONDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WE HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS MONDAY 3-5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS FORECAST.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EUROPEAN AND GFS DIVERGE A BIT BUT BOTH
SUGGEST TROFFING WILL MOVE THRU THE WEST...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE A
BIT UNSETTLED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MANY MEMBERS SHOW EITHER OPEN
WAVE OR EVEN CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT
THE CLIMO POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY. THESE POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE MEX MOS
NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST BY BOTH PROGS FOR THURSDAY...SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A BIT
OF A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
PHOENIX METRO AREA...LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.
SE CA/SW AZ...WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING DOWN THE
CO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHTER N-NW WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FRI.
LOOKING AHEAD...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING WIND
SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE CRITERIA MET. BY MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KLOX 070006 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
407 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...IN THE SHORT TERM...FOCUS
WILL BE ON THE OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z GFS AND WRF
INDICATE CONTINUED MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AS FOR UPPER SUPPORTS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS AT
950/850 MB FRIDAY MORNING THAN THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE STRONGER
UPPER SUPPORT...WILL EXPECT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES. EARLIER TODAY...EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS
UNTIL 300 PM FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH (MOUNTAINS) AND 45 MPH
(VALLEYS). THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NICE
WARM TEMPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST
COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS IN THE 80S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT
IS MUCH WEAKER...SO ONLY LOCAL CANYON WINDS EXPECTED WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VALLEYS.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE A VERY WEAK FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP ON NORTH-FACING SLOPES. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION
SOME VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...LIKELY REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY WARNING LEVELS
IN SOME AREAS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW MAY SPIN UP AN EDDY WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM ZIPS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS AS POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT
GREAT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR THE SURFACE
A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. SO...WILL EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPS AND SOME WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/0007Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND/OR TURBULENCE ISSUES EXPECTED AT KOXR...KBUR...AND
KVNY.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO WIND
ISSUES EXPECTED.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ISSUES EXPECTED AT KBUR THROUGH 08Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 070001 CCA
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
300 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WHICH BROUGHT
CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AREA...7 TO 9 WARMER IN THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND 3 DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLY. ONE AREA WHICH HAS NOT CLEARED OR WARMED IS NORTHEAST SHASTA
COUNTY...WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD...MOIST AIR AND LIGHT WIND HAS KEPT
FOG ENTRENCHED IN THE BURNEY BASIN. THIS AREA OF FOG MAY WELL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
NORTH OF I-80 WHICH CONTINUE TO HOLD SOME COLDER AIR WILL SEE THE
RETURN OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING CITIES SUCH AS
QUINCY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY INTO
THE DELTA AND THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK FOR FRIDAY. THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN BEGINS OVER THE COASTAL RANGE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN MAY ALSO GET
SOME RAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE PACIFIC IS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 1.3-1.5 INCH PW EXTENDING INTO INLAND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH INITIALLY AT NEAR 9000
FEET AS THE WARM AIRMASS FROM THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BELOW 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. 150 KT JET WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL PROVIDE GOOD DYNAMIC LIFT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER BULK OF PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN BEFORE SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO PASS LEVELS. FOR THE TIME BEING BELIEVE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS MAIN COLD AIR MOVES IN.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH THE
STRONG JET VIRTUALLY SPANNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC...A SERIES OF
TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLETS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND THE NRN SAC VALLEY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ONCE THE
IMPACTS FROM ONE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...IMPACTS FROM
THE NEXT APPROACHING WARM FRONT PRESENT THEMSELVES. THIS WILL KEEP
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MTNS.
THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL...MID 60S IN
THE VALLEY AND 40S TO 50S IN THE MTNS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT 5500 TO 6500 FT MSL FROM N-S. THEN INCREASE TO OVER
8000 FT BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INSIDE OF 130W. JCLAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS EXPECT MVFR BR SRN SAC AND NRN SJ VALLEY
12-16Z. IFR MTN FOG OVER BURNEY BASIN...LAKE COUNTY VCNTY CLEAR
LAKE AND WRN PLUMAS COUNTY TO INCLUDE LAKE ALMANOR. EXPECT FOG TO
ERODE 20-22Z. LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
JCLAPP
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 062358
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WHICH BROUGHT
CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AREA...7 TO 9 WARMER IN THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND 3 DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLY. ONE AREA WHICH HAS NOT CLEARED OR WARMED IS NORTHEAST SHASTA
COUNTY...WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD...MOIST AIR AND LIGHT WIND HAS KEPT
FOG ENTRENCHED IN THE BURNEY BASIN. THIS AREA OF FOG MAY WELL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
NORTH OF I-80 WHICH CONTINUE TO HOLD SOME COLDER AIR WILL SEE THE
RETURN OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING CITIES SUCH AS
QUINCY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY INTO
THE DELTA AND THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK FOR FRIDAY. THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN BEGINS OVER THE COASTAL RANGE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN MAY ALSO GET
SOME RAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE PACIFIC IS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 1.3-1.5 INCH PW EXTENDING INTO INLAND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH INITIALLY AT NEAR 9000
FEET AS THE WARM AIRMASS FROM THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BELOW 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. 150 KT JET WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL PROVIDE GOOD DYNAMIC LIFT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER BULK OF PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN BEFORE SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO PASS LEVELS. FOR THE TIME BEING BELIEVE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS MAIN COLD AIR MOVES IN.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH THE
STRONG JET VIRTUALLY SPANNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC...A SERIES OF
TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLETS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND THE NRN SAC VALLEY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ONCE THE
IMPACTS FROM ONE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...IMPACTS FROM
THE NEXT APPROACHING WARM FRONT PRESENT THEMSELVES. THIS WILL KEEP
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MTNS.
THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL...MID 60S IN
THE VALLEY AND 40S TO 50S IN THE MTNS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT 5500 TO 6500 FT MSL FROM N-S. THEN INCREASE TO OVER
8000 FT BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INSIDE OF 130W. JCLAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS EXPECT MVFR BR SRN SAC AND NRN SJ VALLEY
12-16Z. IFR MTN FOG OVER BURNEY BASIN...LAKE COUNTY VCNTY CLEAR
LAKE AND WRN PLUMAS COUNTY TO INCLUDE LAKE ALMANOR. EXPECT FOG TO
ERODE 20-22Z. LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
JCLAPP
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KEKA 062315
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
315 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING TEMPS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WHILE INLAND STATIONS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 15-20
DEGREES WARMER. A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF WARMING ARE EXPECTED
INLAND FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIP WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH H5 TEMPS
AROUND -25C. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE STAYING BELOW
500 J/KG...UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF
AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
VORT MAX MOVING OVERHEAD SAT AFTERNOON AND SHOW GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE AS A 140+ KNOT JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE THUS INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR
THE REDWOOD COAST AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. KL
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT MON WITH NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING SCT
SHOWERS. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATE MON/EARLY TUE..BUT ALL FCST
AN UPPER RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE ERN PAC FROM THE SW.
ECMWF/GEM BUILD THE RIDGE QUICKER THAN GFS/NOGAPS RESULTING IN DRIER
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...TIME OF YEAR AND MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. BC
&&
.AVIATION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BETTER AREAS
OF CLEARING WILL BE SEEN OVER AREAS INLAND AND SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO WITH A SOLID CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. ANY
COASTAL AND NEAR COASTAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN AFTER
SUNSET. ALM
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AXIS THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND LIGHT NW WINDS SOUTH OF THE
CAPE THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP SLIGHTLY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIG W-NW SWELL TRAIN MOVING INTO THE
COAST BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY RAMPING UP INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW DAY`S WORTH OF MODEL RUN CONTINUITY WITH BOTH
THE ENP AND SWAN...HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARDS FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 15 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS LOOK TO REMAIN UP AROUND 13 TO 14 SECONDS AND A HAZ
SEAS WARNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALM
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
| 
