[top]
000
FXUS61 KLWX 081952
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WAS NOTED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD BEHIND
IT. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SECONDARY TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE TO THE
WEST...HAVING TROUBLE CLEARING SKIES OUT OVERNIGHT. WILL GO MORE
PESSIMISTIC THAT MOS GUIDE GRIDS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE COMPLETELY CHANGING OVER LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIP FURTHER SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED...PROBABLY LESS THAN WHAT DEVELOPED TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER...LASTING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL TREND IS
TO BACK OFF ON POPS DURING THE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER
TO RETREAT...AND MOISTURE SLOWER TO INCREASE/RETURN. BEST CHANCE OF
ANY RAIN WORKING INTO THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME NOW LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THERE/S DISAGREEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY RESIDE OVER THE CWA. UNDER A RETURN FLOW...SIDED
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SPREADS CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY THURSDAY. 12Z GFS SUPPORTS THIS. AFTER THURSDAY...THERE/S A
CHANCE THAT THE SPLIT FLOW MAY TRY TO EXHIBIT SOME LARGER SCALE
PHASING...WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THIS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME ENERGY PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR AROUND THIS FEATURE/TIME PERIOD
LATE IN THE WEEK. SATURDAY/S FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW...SIDED TOWARD IT
MOVING THROUGH ACROSS THE CWA FOR LOWER POPS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WILL GET A FEW MORE
BREAKS OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE VERY MUCH CLEARING GIVEN
A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START NEXT WEEK...THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE FOR ALL
ZONES.
A SURGE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON BY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF A FOOT OR LESS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE DEPARTURES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS
WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...SAR
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...SAR/PELOQUIN
MARINE...SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
[top]
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081929
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
229 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LACKING MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAKER SYSTEMS
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS AND STRATO-CU HAS REDEVELOPED INTO A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK
OVER THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT PCPN (FLAKES OR SPRKLS) IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PCPN IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY ON WEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT WESTERN CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY BECOME SCTD IN MANY AREAS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK TODAY BUT SHOULD INCREASE LATE TNGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS 850 TEMPS WILL ONLY COOL ABOUT 4-5 DEGS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO SUNDAY TEMPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. TRICKY LOW TEMP FCST TNGT. SOME DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE IN
PROTECTED OR SHELTERED VALLEYS TONIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...SOME MINS MAY GET QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN FCST. STAYED CLOSE
TO MAV TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVER THE IMMEDIATE
AREA...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH ZONAL FLOW
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS WEAK AND WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY JUST SPRINKLES...IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND NIGHT. IF MEASURABLE RAIN DOES FALL...IT WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE WEST TOWARDS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS.
THERE COULD BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BETWEEN RIDGES AND VALLEYS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE
RISES WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ALONG THE
RIDGES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WEST TOWARD
SUNRISE...MOUNTAIN VALLEY WINDS MAY DECOUPLE LATE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO MODERATE SOME ON MONDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 5F.
MONDAY EVENING...SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
RADIATING DOWN QUICKLY UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN RISING TOWARDS SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER IN EARLY TUESDAY AND THE
POSSIBILITIES OF RAIN...NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON
TUESDAY. IF PROGGED CORRECTLY...TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD
BE 5-10F BELOW NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS LOW.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z ECMWF/HPC SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED THIS PERIOD. STILL LOOKING AT
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DAMP CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY THU-EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLED IN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
WHILE STORM SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE MIS VALLEY. WEAK OVERRUNNING
MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS WEST...AS SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC. DEEPER MOISTURE STILL REMAINS WEST OF US INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY...LOOK FOR A
BETTER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT LOW LVLS TO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE
COLUMN. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRETCHED OUT
FRONT...AND SOME CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS IS USUAL
IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME. STILL TOO EARLY TO CALL...BUT OVERALL
KEEPING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS HIGHEST THU-THU NIGHT...THEN FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF US FRIDAY WHILE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES ACROSS SATURDAY AND WILL BRING
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO NW
FLOW. COLDER AIR WILL BE RETURNING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE FAR WEST WITH ONCL MVFR CONDS AT BLF
AND LWB. BELIEVE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
THESE LOCATIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED AGAINST
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPS BY WEST WINDS. AN IFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
AT BLF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF.
SOME SPINKLES OR FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING THRU SUNDAY BUT VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR. DOWNSLOPE IN THE EAST
WILL KEEP CONDS MOSTLY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JS/KM
[top]
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081924
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
224 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BY TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...AND WILL KEEP
ONLY A SLT CHC TO A CHC POPS FOR CSTL WATERS AND THE EASTERN
SHORE....AND THE EXTREME SE PART OF FA FOR TNT. INSTABILITY HAS
DECREASED...AND HAVE TAKEN OUT THE ISOLATED THUNDER.
EXPECT SKY TO CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM
SHOWS WEAK TROF MOVING THRU THE FA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
NO POPS EXPECTED...ONLY A WIND SHIFT. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE L-M60S...AND WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES EACH OF THE NEXT 2
DAYS. TUE HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE M-U50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S-M40S. EXPECT SOME FREEZING TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST OF I-95 AND AROUND SBY. ELSEWHERE ON MON
NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SIMILAR IN MID LVL PATTERN INTO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND THEN DIVERGE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF
OVER THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WEEK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF
A WEDGE SITUATION TUE INTO WED. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON
TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE ERN
CONUS LATE WK. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT STILL
TO BE DETERMINED IF ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE SPREAD FAR ENOUGH TO
THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. CONTINUE TO BUY INTO SPLIT FLOW DVLPG WITH
MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS THU-FRI. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS
AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE A TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH LATE WEEK FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...COLD FRONT ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ACROSS THE EASTERN VA
PENINSULAS. MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS STRETCH JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...ALONG LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE (WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXISTS) THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS AND INTO NE NC AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS AREA...AND LOCATIONS EAST
(ORF/ECG)...SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING
HEAVIEST PRECIP UNTIL FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND 21Z FOR THE ERN
SHORE...AND 23Z FOR NE NC. SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BROUGHT VFR CONDS TO LOCATIONS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 (INCL RIC) WHERE A FAIR CU FIELD (4 TO 5
KFT) HAS SETUP. DESPITE THE FROPA DO NOT EXPECT COMPLETE CLEARING
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDS FOR
SBY/ORF/ECG IN THE EVNG/EARLY OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF FOG/REDUCED
VSBYS DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND CALMING OF WINDS (EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE TO CLEAR AT LEAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT). ANY FOG
WOULD BE PATCHY AND IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIMEFRAME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUES...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MVS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SSW WINDS (CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KTS) WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN BEFORE A SECONDARY TROF PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUN.
BEHIND IT NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT/BRIEF LOW LVL NWRLY SURGE
OVER THE BAY. COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT/MON AM BEFORE
GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW DVLPS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALS
NEAR TERM...ALS
SHORT TERM...ALS
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081902
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
202 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LACKING MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAKER SYSTEMS
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS AND STRATO-CU HAS REDEVELOPED INTO A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK
OVER THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT PCPN (FLAKES OR SPRKLS) IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PCPN IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY ON WEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT WESTERN CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY BECOME SCTD IN MANY AREAS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK TODAY BUT SHOULD INCREASE LATE TNGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS 850 TEMPS WILL ONLY COOL ABOUT 4-5 DEGS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO SUNDAY TEMPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. TRICKY LOW TEMP FCST TNGT. SOME DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE IN
PROTECTED OR SHELTERED VALLEYS TONIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...SOME MINS MAY GET QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN FCST. STAYED CLOSE
TO MAV TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVER THE IMMEDIATE
AREA...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH ZONAL FLOW
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS WEAK AND WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY JUST SPRINKLES...IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND NIGHT. IF MEASURABLE RAIN DOES FALL...IT WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE WEST TOWARDS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS.
THERE COULD BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BETWEEN RIDGES AND VALLEYS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE
RISES WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ALONG THE
RIDGES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WEST TOWARD
SUNRISE...MOUNTAIN VALLEY WINDS MAY DECOUPLE LATE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO MODERATE SOME ON MONDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 5F.
MONDAY EVENING...SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
RADIATING DOWN QUICKLY UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN RISING TOWARDS SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER IN EARLY TUESDAY AND THE
POSSIBILITIES OF RAIN...NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON
TUESDAY. IF PROGGED CORRECTLY...TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD
BE 5-10F BELOW NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS LOW.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BLENDING WITH
HPC SOLUTION OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. ITS LOOKING TO BE A WETTER WEEK
THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT TERRIFICLY HIGH. WITH
THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WV/SW VA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
WHERE SOME OF THAT PRECIP COULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW KEPT MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
GREENBRIER VALLEY/NRN BLUE RIDGE...ALBEIT SMALL AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN AND WILL BE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO WEDGE OVER THE AREA TUE-THU WHILE THE
SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY WED...AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A MILLER B CONFIG THU
AS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...PER THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL WAS SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES/HPC ARE STICKING WITH ONE SFC LOW
MOVING FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THU-FRI. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE WED-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...LEANING COOLER THAN HPC ON HIGHS IN TYPICAL WEDGED AREAS
TUE-THU. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE FAR WEST WITH ONCL MVFR CONDS AT BLF
AND LWB. BELIEVE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
THESE LOCATIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED AGAINST
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPS BY WEST WINDS. AN IFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
AT BLF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF.
SOME SPINKLES OR FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING THRU SUNDAY BUT VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR. DOWNSLOPE IN THE EAST
WILL KEEP CONDS MOSTLY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JS/KM
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081827
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
127 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO
ZONES AS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HAVE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE DATA TRENDS. RADAR
SHOWING MORE PRECIP THAN MODELS HAD FCST...AND HAVE RAISED POPS
TO 70 PCT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TAKEN OUT POPS
FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY GONE THROUGH. COLD
FRNT HAS JUST GONE THROUGH RIC...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN SHRAS RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IT. FRNT AND SHRAS WILL
PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION TDY...WITH PCPN MOVNG OFFSHR THIS AFTN.
THE LATEST GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC CST THIS
EVENG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT
POST-FRNTL CLEARING TO BLD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRNT OVR WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MSTLY CLR TO PRTLY CLDY TNGT...AS THE FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE W. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG...FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES BLDNG OVR THE REGION MON. MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...COLD FRONT ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ACROSS THE EASTERN VA
PENINSULAS. MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS STRETCH JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...ALONG LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE (WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXISTS) THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS AND INTO NE NC AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS AREA...AND LOCATIONS EAST
(ORF/ECG)...SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING
HEAVIEST PRECIP UNTIL FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND 21Z FOR THE ERN
SHORE...AND 23Z FOR NE NC. SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BROUGHT VFR CONDS TO LOCATIONS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 (INCL RIC) WHERE A FAIR CU FIELD (4 TO 5
KFT) HAS SETUP. DESPITE THE FROPA DO NOT EXPECT COMPLETE CLEARING
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDS FOR
SBY/ORF/ECG IN THE EVNG/EARLY OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF FOG/REDUCED
VSBYS DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND CALMING OF WINDS (EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE TO CLEAR AT LEAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT). ANY FOG
WOULD BE PATCHY AND IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIMEFRAME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUES...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MVS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SSW WINDS (CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KTS) WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN...SO WINDS REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. PROGGED LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WED/THU IS TO OUR NORTH WHICH WOULD BRING ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALS/CCW
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...BAJ/JYM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081740
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1240 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA TODAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LACKING MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. WEAKER
SYSTEMS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
STLT AND RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO CONFIRM THAT RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE REGION FOR GOOD AND WILL ACCELERATE EAST THE REST OF THE DAY.
CANADIAN SKY MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING OF
CLEARING AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CLDS ACROSS SE WEST VA AND
EXTREME SW VA AS CAA ENSUES. SOME SUN IN THOSE PARTS THIS MORNING
WILL BE REPLACED BY CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF/6V3/VJI
CORRIDOR...WHERE CLDS AND CAA SHOULD DISALLOW TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH. DOWNSLOPING AND SLOW ARRIVAL OF CAA MEANS NOT TOO BAD OF A
DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH. WITH SUNSHINE MAKING AN
APPEARANCE...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 65F ALONG THE WARMEST
SPOTS. A WARM START ALREADY ALONG THE SOUTHSIDE COULD MEAN MAX T
TOUCHING 70F AGAIN...HOWEVER IF CLDS PERSIST THERE CONSIDERING
SLOWNESS OF FRONT THAT WILL NOT BE REALIZED. WARM START AT ROA MAY
GIVE MAX T ABV GUIDANCE THERE...SO WILL TACK ON A FEW DEGREES AT
LEAST. ANOTHER SHRTWV ARRIVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING SLT CHC IN EXTREME SW VA
SEEMS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE MISSED AND BEEN TOO DRY WITH
THIS TYPE OF SETUP IN THE PAST. CHGS MAY BE NEEDED THERE IF PRECIP
BLOSSOMS ALONG ITS TRACK LATER TODAY. ENOUGH OF AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...LIMITED THOUGH BY SHEAR IN THE LLVLS FOR SLT CHC POPS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SE WEST VA TONIGHT...WHICH WAS LARGELY
HANDLED BY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE WX GRIDS...AS WHAT DOES FALL
MAY NOT BE MEASURABLE. DID SHADE MIN TONIGHT ABV GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST TONIGHT...AS WINDS/CLDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH AFTER CAA CONCLUDES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE SHORT-RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS 500 MB CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN
FAVORED TERRAIN BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IN THE WAY OF QPF DURING THE
PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTENUATE THE CLOUDS CONSIDERABLY
IN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWAS 850 TEMPS QUITE COOL IN THE NW CWA REACHING -5C OR EARLY
MONDAY SO WHILE REMAINING AT +3 TO +4 IN THE SE. NEXT SHORT-WAVE
APPROACHES EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT POPS INTRODUCED AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BLENDING WITH
HPC SOLUTION OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. ITS LOOKING TO BE A WETTER WEEK
THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT TERRIFICLY HIGH. WITH
THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WV/SW VA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
WHERE SOME OF THAT PRECIP COULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW KEPT MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
GREENBRIER VALLEY/NRN BLUE RIDGE...ALBEIT SMALL AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN AND WILL BE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO WEDGE OVER THE AREA TUE-THU WHILE THE
SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY WED...AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A MILLER B CONFIG THU
AS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...PER THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL WAS SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES/HPC ARE STICKING WITH ONE SFC LOW
MOVING FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THU-FRI. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE WED-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...LEANING COOLER THAN HPC ON HIGHS IN TYPICAL WEDGED AREAS
TUE-THU. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE FAR WEST WITH ONCL MVFR CONDS AT BLF
AND LWB. BELIEVE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
THESE LOCATIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED AGAINST
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPS BY WEST WINDS. AN IFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
AT BLF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF.
SOME SPINKLES OR FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING THRU SUNDAY BUT VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR. DOWNSLOPE IN THE EAST
WILL KEEP CONDS MOSTLY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...JS/KM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JS/KM
000
FXUS61 KLWX 081624 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. AFTER A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEW YORK
THEN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.
MAIN UPDATE IS TO ADDRESS RADAR SATELLITE TRENDS. HAVE CUT OUT POPS
FOR ALL BUT LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. ALSO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
SKY COVER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY VERSUS MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC TROF AXIS SHUD BE E OF FCST AREA TNGT...WITH WLY WINDS THRU DP
LYR AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF ROUNDS THE UPR LOW. UPSLP FLOW IN HIGH
TERRAIN OF WRN ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LGT RA/SN TNGT.
DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND SFC BNDRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE POPS...KEEPING
WITH PREV THINKING OF BASICALLY LOW CHANCE POPS D4-7. GFS HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM. THE SHRTWV THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS A LEE SFC LOW ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EFFECTIVELY WASHES OUT BY LATE TUE AFTER
CREATING A WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER
OHIO VLY...STRETCHING THIN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND SCATTERING OUT
LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CNTRL APLCNS TUE INTO
WED. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS...A SUBSEQUENT CLOSED LOW CUTTING
OFF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THEN TAKES A SRN ROUTE DOWN INTO THE
SRN APLCNS...THEN SLIDING A POTENT AND GUSTY SFC LOW UP THE
APLCN CHAIN FRI-SAT. THE EUROPEAN MAKES LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE
MID-LATE WEEK DYNAMICS...BASICALLY DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN US WHICH GRADUALLY DRAGS A TROF AXIS OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE COMPLETE DISCONTINUITY IN
HANDLING THESE FEATURES BEYOND D3...WILL KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE POPS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE M/U30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLC...AND MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEG
COLDER. MANY AREAS XPCD TO DROP BELOW FRZG FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
THE GROWING SEASON ENDED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. MOISTURE INCRS FROM
THE WEAK SLY FLOW TUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SKIES ARE XPCD TO BE
CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY-MOCLDY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ONCE THE WEAKENING
TROF SPREADS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUE THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT FOR THE BALTIMORE
TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
HIPRES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUE INTO WED...KEEPING
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL BE UPDATING COASTALS TO REMOVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WIND GUSTS OVER THE WATER HAVE SUBSIDED TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
A SCA POSTED FOR SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE WATERS...MARGINAL AND
INTERMITTENT 20 KT GUSTS IN WLY FLOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BREEZIER...WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION AND NWLY WINDS INCRG MAINLY OVER THE WATER TWD MID-LATE AFTN
AS THE MID LEVEL TROF SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HIPRES WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING 1-1.5 FT ABV XPCD VALUES. WITH SLY WINDS ACRS BAY
TDA...THIS TREND MAY CONT THRU TDA. BUT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
XPCD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SAR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KRAMAR/SCHOOR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081436
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
936 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO
ZONES AS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HAVE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE DATA TRENDS. RADAR
SHOWING MORE PRECIP THAN MODELS HAD FCST...AND HAVED RAISED POPS
TO 70 PCT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TAKEN OUT POPS
FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY GONE THROUGH. COLD
FRNT HAS JUST GONE THROUGH RIC...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN SHRAS RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IT. FRNT AND SHRAS WILL
PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION TDY...WITH PCPN MOVNG OFFSHR THIS AFTN.
THE LATEST GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC CST THIS
EVENG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT
POST-FRNTL CLEARING TO BLD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRNT OVR WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MSTLY CLR TO PRTLY CLDY TNGT...AS THE FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE W. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG...FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES BLDNG OVR THE REGION MON. MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SBY TAF EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLEAR
AROUND SUNSET DUE TO HEATING AS WELL AS APPROACHING FRONT. CIGS WILL
BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MVS INTO THE
AREA...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE OCCASIONAL MVFR (ABOUT 1500 TO 2500FT). DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
AND REMOVE PREDOMINANT RAIN IN TAFS AND KEEP JUST VCSH AS FRONT MVS
THROUGH DUE TO LOW CHANCES (LIMITED MOISTURE). CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUES MORNING...BRINGING JUST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS TO ALL OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED BLO SCA CRITERIA OVER OUR NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS...SO LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE AT LAST ISSUANCE. A
COLD FRONT MVS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN...SO WINDS REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALS/CCW
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...JYM
MARINE...JYM
000
FXUS61 KLWX 081417
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. AFTER A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEW YORK
THEN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND.
MAIN UPDATE IS TO ADDRESS RADAR TRENDS. HAVE CUT BACK POPS WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BAY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS...WITH A FEW
STORMS OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. WITH UPPER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT...THIS FEATURE WILL NOT MOVE EAST VERY FAST. WILL CARRY
POPS IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ALSO MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOME SUNSHINE CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC TROF AXIS SHUD BE E OF FCST AREA TNGT...WITH WLY WINDS THRU DP
LYR AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF ROUNDS THE UPR LOW. UPSLP FLOW IN HIGH
TERRAIN OF WRN ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LGT RA/SN TNGT.
DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND SFC BNDRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE POPS...KEEPING
WITH PREV THINKING OF BASICALLY LOW CHANCE POPS D4-7. GFS HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM. THE SHRTWV THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS A LEE SFC LOW ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EFFECTIVELY WASHES OUT BY LATE TUE AFTER
CREATING A WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER
OHIO VLY...STRETCHING THIN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND SCATTERING OUT
LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CNTRL APLCNS TUE INTO
WED. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS...A SUBSEQUENT CLOSED LOW CUTTING
OFF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THEN TAKES A SRN ROUTE DOWN INTO THE
SRN APLCNS...THEN SLIDING A POTENT AND GUSTY SFC LOW UP THE
APLCN CHAIN FRI-SAT. THE EUROPEAN MAKES LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE
MID-LATE WEEK DYNAMICS...BASICALLY DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN US WHICH GRADUALLY DRAGS A TROF AXIS OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE COMPLETE DISCONTINUITY IN
HANDLING THESE FEATURES BEYOND D3...WILL KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE POPS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE M/U30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLC...AND MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEG
COLDER. MANY AREAS XPCD TO DROP BELOW FRZG FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
THE GROWING SEASON ENDED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. MOISTURE INCRS FROM
THE WEAK SLY FLOW TUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SKIES ARE XPCD TO BE
CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY-MOCLDY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ONCE THE WEAKENING
TROF SPREADS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUE THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...KBWI AND KMTN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OF KDCA. BRIEF CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON.
BKN LOW CLDS SHUD ERODE LATE THIS EVE.
HIPRES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUE INTO WED...KEEPING
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY ZONES
THROUGH NOON. STILL HAVE A FEW OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
A SCA POSTED FOR SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE WATERS...MARGINAL AND
INTERMITTENT 20 KT GUSTS IN WLY FLOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BREEZIER...WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION AND NWLY WINDS INCRG MAINLY OVER THE WATER TWD MID-LATE AFTN
AS THE MID LEVEL TROF SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HIPRES WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING 1-1.5 FT ABV XPCD VALUES. WITH SLY WINDS ACRS BAY
TDA...THIS TREND MAY CONT THRU TDA. BUT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
XPCD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537.
&&
$$
MORNING UPDATE...SAR
PREVOUS DISCUSSION...KRAMAR/SCHOOR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081406
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
906 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO
ZONES AS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE DATA TRENDS.
RADAR SHOWING MORE PRECIP THAN MODELS HAD FCST...AND HAVED RAISED
POPS TO 50 PCT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TAKEN OUT
POPS FOR THE NW COUNTIES WHERE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY GONE
THROUGH. COLD FRNT HAS JUST GONE THROUGH RIC...AND CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST...WITH MAINLY LGT RAIN SHRAS RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IT.
FRNT AND SHRAS WILL PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION TDY...WITH PCPN
MOVNG OFFSHR THIS AFTN. THE LATEST GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT POST-FRNTL CLEARING TO BLD IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRNT OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MSTLY CLR TO PRTLY CLDY TNGT...AS THE FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE W. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG...FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES BLDNG OVR THE REGION MON. MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SBY TAF EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLEAR
AROUND SUNSET DUE TO HEATING AS WELL AS APPROACHING FRONT. CIGS WILL
BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MVS INTO THE
AREA...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE OCCASIONAL MVFR (ABOUT 1500 TO 2500FT). DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
AND REMOVE PREDOMINANT RAIN IN TAFS AND KEEP JUST VCSH AS FRONT MVS
THROUGH DUE TO LOW CHANCES (LIMITED MOISTURE). CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUES MORNING...BRINGING JUST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS TO ALL OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED BLO SCA CRITERIA OVER OUR NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS...SO LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE AT LAST ISSUANCE. A
COLD FRONT MVS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN...SO WINDS REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALS/CCW
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...JYM
MARINE...JYM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081406
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
906 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA TODAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LACKING MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. WEAKER
SYSTEMS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
STLT AND RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO CONFIRM THAT RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE REGION FOR GOOD AND WILL ACCELERATE EAST THE REST OF THE DAY.
CANADIAN SKY MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING OF
CLEARING AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CLDS ACROSS SE WEST VA AND
EXTREME SW VA AS CAA ENSUES. SOME SUN IN THOSE PARTS THIS MORNING
WILL BE REPLACED BY CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF/6V3/VJI
CORRIDOR...WHERE CLDS AND CAA SHOULD DISALLOW TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH. DOWNSLOPING AND SLOW ARRIVAL OF CAA MEANS NOT TOO BAD OF A
DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH. WITH SUNSHINE MAKING AN
APPEARANCE...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 65F ALONG THE WARMEST
SPOTS. A WARM START ALREADY ALONG THE SOUTHSIDE COULD MEAN MAX T
TOUCHING 70F AGAIN...HOWEVER IF CLDS PERSIST THERE CONSIDERING
SLOWNESS OF FRONT THAT WILL NOT BE REALIZED. WARM START AT ROA MAY
GIVE MAX T ABV GUIDANCE THERE...SO WILL TACK ON A FEW DEGREES AT
LEAST. ANOTHER SHRTWV ARRIVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING SLT CHC IN EXTREME SW VA
SEEMS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE MISSED AND BEEN TOO DRY WITH
THIS TYPE OF SETUP IN THE PAST. CHGS MAY BE NEEDED THERE IF PRECIP
BLOSSOMS ALONG ITS TRACK LATER TODAY. ENOUGH OF AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...LIMITED THOUGH BY SHEAR IN THE LLVLS FOR SLT CHC POPS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SE WEST VA TONIGHT...WHICH WAS LARGELY
HANDLED BY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE WX GRIDS...AS WHAT DOES FALL
MAY NOT BE MEASURABLE. DID SHADE MIN TONIGHT ABV GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST TONIGHT...AS WINDS/CLDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH AFTER CAA CONCLUDES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE SHORT-RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS 500 MB CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN
FAVORED TERRAIN BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IN THE WAY OF QPF DURING THE
PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTENUATE THE CLOUDS CONSIDERABLY
IN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWAS 850 TEMPS QUITE COOL IN THE NW CWA REACHING -5C OR EARLY
MONDAY SO WHILE REMAINING AT +3 TO +4 IN THE SE. NEXT SHORT-WAVE
APPROACHES EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT POPS INTRODUCED AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BLENDING WITH
HPC SOLUTION OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. ITS LOOKING TO BE A WETTER WEEK
THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT TERRIFICLY HIGH. WITH
THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WV/SW VA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
WHERE SOME OF THAT PRECIP COULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW KEPT MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
GREENBRIER VALLEY/NRN BLUE RIDGE...ALBEIT SMALL AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN AND WILL BE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO WEDGE OVER THE AREA TUE-THU WHILE THE
SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY WED...AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A MILLER B CONFIG THU
AS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...PER THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL WAS SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES/HPC ARE STICKING WITH ONE SFC LOW
MOVING FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THU-FRI. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE WED-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...LEANING COOLER THAN HPC ON HIGHS IN TYPICAL WEDGED AREAS
TUE-THU. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEST WIND BEHIND BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW JUST EAST OF
BLACKSBURG...IS ALREADY ERODING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20KTS ONCE
MIXING OCCURS WITH SUNRISE. LOWER CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH CAA IN THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AT KLWB/KBLF LATER TODAY.
SHRTWV MAY PUSH OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWS...WHICH WITH A WEST WIND AT
KBLF COULD MEAN TEMPO IFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT WITH A 900FT DECK AT KBLF FOR NOW. ANY GUSTY WINDS
QUICKLY DIE OFF TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CLDS HANGING TOUGH AT
KLWB/KBLF...SKC ELSEWHERE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES EAST PER DOWNSLOPE WHILE LEAVING SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING BROUGHT ONLY
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MOST OF THE AREA. JEWELL RIDGE IFLOWS IN
NORTHWEST TAZEWELL COUNTY WAS THE BIG WINNER WITH 0.44 INCHES IN A
FEW HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WITH MEASURABLE RAIN HAD LESS THAN .05
INCHES. WITH A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST AHEAD THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT GOING TO IMPROVE ANYTIME SOON. NUMEROUS RIVER AND STREAM
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN VIRGINIA ARE NOW RECORDING VERY LOW OR EVEN
RECORD LOW FLOWS FOR THIS DATE...INLCUDING THE ROANOKE RIVER AT
ROANOKE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...JS/KM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KM
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081256
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
756 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE DATA TRENDS.
RADAR SHOWING MORE PRECIP THAN MODELS HAD FCST...AND HAVED RAISED
POPS TO 50 PCT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TAKEN OUT
POPS FOR THE NW COUNTIES WHERE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY GONE
THROUGH. COLD FRNT HAS JUST GONE THROUGH RIC...AND CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST...WITH MAINLY LGT RAIN SHRAS RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IT.
FRNT AND SHRAS WILL PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION TDY...WITH PCPN
MOVNG OFFSHR THIS AFTN. THE LATEST GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT POST-FRNTL CLEARING TO BLD IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRNT OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MSTLY CLR TO PRTLY CLDY TNGT...AS THE FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE W. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG...FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES BLDNG OVR THE REGION MON. MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SBY TAF EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLEAR
AROUND SUNSET DUE TO HEATING AS WELL AS APPROACHING FRONT. CIGS WILL
BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MVS INTO THE
AREA...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE OCCASIONAL MVFR (ABOUT 1500 TO 2500FT). DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
AND REMOVE PREDOMINANT RAIN IN TAFS AND KEEP JUST VCSH AS FRONT MVS
THROUGH DUE TO LOW CHANCES (LIMITED MOISTURE). CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUES MORNING...BRINGING JUST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS TO ALL OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED BLO SCA CRITERIA OVER OUR NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS...SO LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE AT LAST ISSUANCE. A
COLD FRONT MVS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN...SO WINDS REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALS
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...JYM
MARINE...JYM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081141
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
641 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA TODAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LACKING MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. WEAKER
SYSTEMS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHGS TO GOING FORECAST. LINE OF SHWS NOW EXITING EXTREME
EASTERN CWA...BUT DID LEAVE IN SLT CHC POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING CONSIDERING SLOWNESS OF FRONT AND MAIN SHRTWV STILL TO THE
WEST. SHWS MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS SO THAT
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS SOMETHING TO WORK WITH. FARTHER
WEST...CANADIAN SKY MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING OF
CLEARING AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CLDS ACROSS SE WEST VA AND
EXTREME SW VA AS CAA ENSUES. SOME SUN IN THOSE PARTS THIS MORNING
WILL BE REPLACED BY CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF/6V3/VJI
CORRIDOR...WHERE CLDS AND CAA SHOULD DISALLOW TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH. DOWNSLOPING AND SLOW ARRIVAL OF CAA MEANS NOT TOO BAD OF A
DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH. WITH SUNSHINE MAKING AN
APPEARANCE...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 65F ALONG THE WARMEST
SPOTS. A WARM START ALREADY ALONG THE SOUTHSIDE COULD MEAN MAX T
TOUCHING 70F AGAIN...HOWEVER IF CLDS PERSIST THERE CONSIDERING
SLOWNESS OF FRONT THAT WILL NOT BE REALIZED. WARM START AT ROA
MAY GIVE MAX T ABV GUIDANCE THERE...SO WILL TACK ON A FEW DEGREES
AT LEAST. ANOTHER SHRTWV ARRIVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING SLT CHC IN EXTREME SW VA
SEEMS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE MISSED AND BEEN TOO DRY WITH
THIS TYPE OF SETUP IN THE PAST. CHGS MAY BE NEEDED THERE IF PRECIP
BLOSSOMS ALONG ITS TRACK LATER TODAY. ENOUGH OF AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...LIMITED THOUGH BY SHEAR IN THE LLVLS FOR SLT CHC POPS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SE WEST VA TONIGHT...WHICH WAS LARGELY
HANDLED BY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE WX GRIDS...AS WHAT DOES FALL
MAY NOT BE MEASURABLE. DID SHADE MIN TONIGHT ABV GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST TONIGHT...AS WINDS/CLDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH AFTER CAA CONCLUDES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE SHORT-RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS 500 MB CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN
FAVORED TERRAIN BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IN THE WAY OF QPF DURING THE
PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTENUATE THE CLOUDS CONSIDERABLY
IN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWAS 850 TEMPS QUITE COOL IN THE NW CWA REACHING -5C OR EARLY
MONDAY SO WHILE REMAINING AT +3 TO +4 IN THE SE. NEXT SHORT-WAVE
APPROACHES EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT POPS INTRODUCED AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BLENDING WITH
HPC SOLUTION OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. ITS LOOKING TO BE A WETTER WEEK
THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT TERRIFICLY HIGH. WITH
THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WV/SW VA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
WHERE SOME OF THAT PRECIP COULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW KEPT MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
GREENBRIER VALLEY/NRN BLUE RIDGE...ALBEIT SMALL AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN AND WILL BE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO WEDGE OVER THE AREA TUE-THU WHILE THE
SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY WED...AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A MILLER B CONFIG THU
AS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...PER THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL WAS SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES/HPC ARE STICKING WITH ONE SFC LOW
MOVING FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THU-FRI. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE WED-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...LEANING COOLER THAN HPC ON HIGHS IN TYPICAL WEDGED AREAS
TUE-THU. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEST WIND BEHIND BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW JUST EAST OF
BLACKSBURG...IS ALREADY ERODING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20KTS ONCE
MIXING OCCURS WITH SUNRISE. LOWER CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH CAA IN THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AT KLWB/KBLF LATER TODAY.
SHRTWV MAY PUSH OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWS...WHICH WITH A WEST WIND AT
KBLF COULD MEAN TEMPO IFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT WITH A 900FT DECK AT KBLF FOR NOW. ANY GUSTY WINDS
QUICKLY DIE OFF TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CLDS HANGING TOUGH AT
KLWB/KBLF...SKC ELSEWHERE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES EAST PER DOWNSLOPE WHILE LEAVING SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS EARLIER THIS EVENING BROUGHT ONLY LIGHT
PRECIP TO THE MOST OF THE AREA. JEWELL RIDGE IFLOWS IN NORTHWEST
TAZEWELL COUNTY WAS THE BIG WINNER WITH 0.44 INCHES IN A FEW HOURS
BUT MOST AREAS WITH MEASURABLE RAIN HAD LESS THAN .05 INCHES.
WITH A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST AHEAD THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
GOING TO IMPROVE ANYTIME SOON. NUMEROUS RIVER AND STREAM LOCATIONS
IN WESTERN VIRGINIA ARE NOW RECORDING VERY LOW OR EVEN RECORD LOW
FLOWS FOR THIS DATE...INLCUDING THE ROANOKE RIVER AT ROANOKE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KM
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081034
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
534 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA TODAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LACKING MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. WEAKER
SYSTEMS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHGS TO GOING FORECAST. LINE OF SHWS NOW EXITING EXTREME
EASTERN CWA...BUT DID LEAVE IN SLT CHC POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING CONSIDERING SLOWNESS OF FRONT AND MAIN SHRTWV STILL TO THE
WEST. SHWS MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS SO THAT
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS SOMETHING TO WORK WITH. FARTHER
WEST...CANADIAN SKY MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING OF
CLEARING AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CLDS ACROSS SE WEST VA AND
EXTREME SW VA AS CAA ENSUES. SOME SUN IN THOSE PARTS THIS MORNING
WILL BE REPLACED BY CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF/6V3/VJI
CORRIDOR...WHERE CLDS AND CAA SHOULD DISALLOW TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH. DOWNSLOPING AND SLOW ARRIVAL OF CAA MEANS NOT TOO BAD OF A
DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH. WITH SUNSHINE MAKING AN
APPEARANCE...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 65F ALONG THE WARMEST
SPOTS. A WARM START ALREADY ALONG THE SOUTHSIDE COULD MEAN MAX T
TOUCHING 70F AGAIN...HOWEVER IF CLDS PERSIST THERE CONSIDERING
SLOWNESS OF FRONT THAT WILL NOT BE REALIZED. WARM START AT ROA
MAY GIVE MAX T ABV GUIDANCE THERE...SO WILL TACK ON A FEW DEGREES
AT LEAST. ANOTHER SHRTWV ARRIVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING SLT CHC IN EXTREME SW VA
SEEMS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE MISSED AND BEEN TOO DRY WITH
THIS TYPE OF SETUP IN THE PAST. CHGS MAY BE NEEDED THERE IF PRECIP
BLOSSOMS ALONG ITS TRACK LATER TODAY. ENOUGH OF AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...LIMITED THOUGH BY SHEAR IN THE LLVLS FOR SLT CHC POPS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SE WEST VA TONIGHT...WHICH WAS LARGELY
HANDLED BY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE WX GRIDS...AS WHAT DOES FALL
MAY NOT BE MEASURABLE. DID SHADE MIN TONIGHT ABV GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST TONIGHT...AS WINDS/CLDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH AFTER CAA CONCLUDES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE SHORT-RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS 500 MB CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN
FAVORED TERRAIN BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IN THE WAY OF QPF DURING THE
PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTENUATE THE CLOUDS CONSIDERABLY
IN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWAS 850 TEMPS QUITE COOL IN THE NW CWA REACHING -5C OR EARLY
MONDAY SO WHILE REMAINING AT +3 TO +4 IN THE SE. NEXT SHORT-WAVE
APPROACHES EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT POPS INTRODUCED AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BLENDING WITH
HPC SOLUTION OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. ITS LOOKING TO BE A WETTER WEEK
THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT TERRIFICLY HIGH. WITH
THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WV/SW VA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
WHERE SOME OF THAT PRECIP COULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW KEPT MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
GREENBRIER VALLEY/NRN BLUE RIDGE...ALBEIT SMALL AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN AND WILL BE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO WEDGE OVER THE AREA TUE-THU WHILE THE
SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY WED...AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A MILLER B CONFIG THU
AS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...PER THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL WAS SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES/HPC ARE STICKING WITH ONE SFC LOW
MOVING FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THU-FRI. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE WED-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...LEANING COOLER THAN HPC ON HIGHS IN TYPICAL WEDGED AREAS
TUE-THU. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY TOUCH THE DRIER AIR NEAR
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. KBLF STANDS THE BEST CHC AT IFR VIS OR CIG
TONIGHT...EITHER FROM THE SHWS OVERHEAD NOW...OR THE LOW CIGS
WHICH MAY DEVELOP WITH A WEST WIND AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES EAST PER DOWNSLOPE WHILE LEAVING SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS EARLIER THIS EVENING BROUGHT ONLY LIGHT
PRECIP TO THE MOST OF THE AREA. JEWELL RIDGE IFLOWS IN NORTHWEST
TAZEWELL COUNTY WAS THE BIG WINNER WITH 0.44 INCHES IN A FEW HOURS
BUT MOST AREAS WITH MEASURABLE RAIN HAD LESS THAN .05 INCHES.
WITH A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST AHEAD THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
GOING TO IMPROVE ANYTIME SOON. NUMEROUS RIVER AND STREAM LOCATIONS
IN WESTERN VIRGINIA ARE NOW RECORDING VERY LOW OR EVEN RECORD LOW
FLOWS FOR THIS DATE...INLCUDING THE ROANOKE RIVER AT ROANOKE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KM
HYDROLOGY...PC
000
FXUS61 KRNK 080848
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA TODAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LACKING MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. WEAKER
SYSTEMS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHGS TO GOING FORECAST. LINE OF SHWS NOW EXITING EXTREME
EASTERN CWA...BUT DID LEAVE IN SLT CHC POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING CONSIDERING SLOWNESS OF FRONT AND MAIN SHRTWV STILL TO THE
WEST. SHWS MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS SO THAT
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS SOMETHING TO WORK WITH. FARTHER
WEST...CANADIAN SKY MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING OF
CLEARING AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CLDS ACROSS SE WEST VA AND
EXTREME SW VA AS CAA ENSUES. SOME SUN IN THOSE PARTS THIS MORNING
WILL BE REPLACED BY CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF/6V3/VJI
CORRIDOR...WHERE CLDS AND CAA SHOULD DISALLOW TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH. DOWNSLOPING AND SLOW ARRIVAL OF CAA MEANS NOT TOO BAD OF A
DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH. WITH SUNSHINE MAKING AN
APPEARANCE...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 65F ALONG THE WARMEST
SPOTS. A WARM START ALREADY ALONG THE SOUTHSIDE COULD MEAN MAX T
TOUCHING 70F AGAIN...HOWEVER IF CLDS PERSIST THERE CONSIDERING
SLOWNESS OF FRONT THAT WILL NOT BE REALIZED. WARM START AT ROA
MAY GIVE MAX T ABV GUIDANCE THERE...SO WILL TACK ON A FEW DEGREES
AT LEAST. ANOTHER SHRTWV ARRIVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING SLT CHC IN EXTREME SW VA
SEEMS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE MISSED AND BEEN TOO DRY WITH
THIS TYPE OF SETUP IN THE PAST. CHGS MAY BE NEEDED THERE IF PRECIP
BLOSSOMS ALONG ITS TRACK LATER TODAY. ENOUGH OF AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...LIMITED THOUGH BY SHEAR IN THE LLVLS FOR SLT CHC POPS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SE WEST VA TONIGHT...WHICH WAS LARGELY
HANDLED BY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE WX GRIDS...AS WHAT DOES FALL
MAY NOT BE MEASURABLE. DID SHADE MIN TONIGHT ABV GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST TONIGHT...AS WINDS/CLDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH AFTER CAA CONCLUDES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE SHORT-RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS 500 MB CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN
FAVORED TERRAIN BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IN THE WAY OF QPF DURING THE
PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTENUATE THE CLOUDS CONSIDERABLY
IN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWAS 850 TEMPS QUITE COOL IN THE NW CWA REACHING -5C OR EARLY
MONDAY SO WHILE REMAINING AT +3 TO +4 IN THE SE. NEXT SHORT-WAVE
APPROACHES EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT POPS INTRODUCED AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BLENDING WITH
HPC SOLUTION OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. ITS LOOKING TO BE A WETTER WEEK
THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT TERRIFICLY HIGH. WITH
THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WV/SW VA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
WHERE SOME OF THAT PRECIP COULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW KEPT MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
GREENBRIER VALLEY/NRN BLUE RIDGE...ALBEIT SMALL AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN AND WILL BE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO WEDGE OVER THE AREA TUE-THU WHILE THE
SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY WED...AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A MILLER B CONFIG THU
AS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...PER THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL WAS SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES/HPC ARE STICKING WITH ONE SFC LOW
MOVING FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THU-FRI. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE WED-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...LEANING COOLER THAN HPC ON HIGHS IN TYPICAL WEDGED AREAS
TUE-THU. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY TOUCH THE DRIER AIR NEAR
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. KBLF STANDS THE BEST CHC AT IFR VIS OR CIG
TONIGHT...EITHER FROM THE SHWS OVERHEAD NOW...OR THE LOW CIGS
WHICH MAY DEVELOP WITH A WEST WIND AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES EAST PER DOWNSLOPE WHILE LEAVING SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KM
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080844
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRNT WAS PUSHING THRU WRN VA ERLY THIS MORNG...WITH SCTD
MAINLY LGT RAIN SHRAS RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IT. FRNT AND LGT SHRAS
WILL PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION TDY...WITH PCPN MOVNG OFFSHR THIS
AFTN. THE LATEST GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THIS EVENG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT
POST-FRNTL CLEARING TO BLD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRNT OVR WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MSTLY CLR TO PRTLY CLDY TNGT...AS THE FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE W. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG...FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES BLDNG OVR THE REGION MON. MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SBY TAF EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLEAR
AROUND SUNSET DUE TO HEATING AS WELL AS APPROACHING FRONT. CIGS WILL
BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MVS INTO THE
AREA...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE OCCASIONAL MVFR (ABOUT 1500 TO 2500FT). DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
AND REMOVE PREDOMINANT RAIN IN TAFS AND KEEP JUST VCSH AS FRONT MVS
THROUGH DUE TO LOW CHANCES (LIMITED MOISTURE). CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUES MORNING...BRINGING JUST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS TO ALL OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED BLO SCA CRITERIA OVER OUR NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS...SO LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE AT LAST ISSUANCE. A
COLD FRONT MVS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN...SO WINDS REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...BKH/TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...JYM
MARINE...JYM
000
FXUS61 KLWX 080827
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. AFTER A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DP UPR TROF OVER MI THIS MRNG...WITH SHRTWV TROF MOVG NE ALG SRN
PERIPHERY OF MAIN SYSTEM. SHRA FORMING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHRTWV
TROF ATTM. SHRTWV TROF XPCD TO LIFT NE ACRS PA TDA...WITH LIFT
DECRG ACRS FCST AREA. THUS...PCPN SHUD GENLY BE CONFINED TO NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG. SOME PCPN ALONG SHRTWV TROF AXIS NOTED SWD INTO
NC...BUT TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD WITH THESE ECHOES.
ALTHOUGH BEST CHC FOR PCPN IN NRN SECTIONS...LWR CLD CVR IN SRN
ZONES MAY ALLOW FOR REDVLPMT OF SCT SHRA BY MID MRNG IN ERN/SERN
PORTIONS OF FCST AREA.
MAXIMA CONFINED TO MID-UPR 50S/LWR 60S XCPT MID 60S IN SRN ZONES
WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC TROF AXIS SHUD BE E OF FCST AREA TNGT...WITH WLY WINDS THRU DP
LYR AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF ROUNDS THE UPR LOW. UPSLP FLOW IN HIGH
TERRAIN OF WRN ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LGT RA/SN TNGT.
DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND SFC BNDRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE POPS...KEEPING
WITH PREV THINKING OF BASICALLY LOW CHANCE POPS D4-7. GFS HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM. THE SHRTWV THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS A LEE SFC LOW ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EFFECTIVELY WASHES OUT BY LATE TUE AFTER
CREATING A WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER
OHIO VLY...STRETCHING THIN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND SCATTERING OUT
LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CNTRL APLCNS TUE INTO
WED. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS...A SUBSEQUENT CLOSED LOW CUTTING
OFF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THEN TAKES A SRN ROUTE DOWN INTO THE
SRN APLCNS...THEN SLIDING A POTENT AND GUSTY SFC LOW UP THE
APLCN CHAIN FRI-SAT. THE EUROPEAN MAKES LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE
MID-LATE WEEK DYNAMICS...BASICALLY DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN US WHICH GRADUALLY DRAGS A TROF AXIS OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE COMPLETE DISCONTINUITY IN
HANDLING THESE FEATURES BEYOND D3...WILL KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE POPS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE M/U30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLC...AND MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEG
COLDER. MANY AREAS XPCD TO DROP BELOW FRZG FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
THE GROWING SEASON ENDED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. MOISTURE INCRS FROM
THE WEAK SLY FLOW TUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SKIES ARE XPCD TO BE
CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY-MOCLDY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ONCE THE WEAKENING
TROF SPREADS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUE THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONGOING SHRA MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS W OF BLUE RDG. XPC SAME TO
SPREAD EWD ACRS NRN ZONES TDA. ATTM...WILL CARRY SHRA ONLY AT KMRB
AND KCHO...AS CONFIDENCE IN SEWD DVLPMT OF PCPN COMPARATIVELY LOW.
AMENDMENTS TO TAFS ARE XPCD AS RADAR TRENDS BECOME EVIDENT. ANY
PCPN SHUD END BY LATE MRNG.
BKN LOW CLDS SHUD ERODE LATE THIS EVE.
HIPRES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUE INTO WED...KEEPING
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SLY WINDS INCRG AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING THIS MRNG...
XPCG WINDS TO INCR SLGTLY ACRS SRN MRN ZONES. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE
SMALL CRAFT ADZY THRU THIS MRNG. GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE PSBL.
WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE THIS AFTN WITH APRCH OF SFC TROF AXIS.
A SCA POSTED FOR SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE WATERS...MARGINAL AND
INTERMITTENT 20 KT GUSTS IN WLY FLOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BREEZIER...WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION AND NWLY WINDS INCRG MAINLY OVER THE WATER TWD MID-LATE AFTN
AS THE MID LEVEL TROF SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HIPRES WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING 1-1.5 FT ABV XPCD VALUES. WITH SLY WINDS ACRS BAY
TDA...THIS TREND MAY CONT THRU TDA. BUT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
XPCD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537.
&&
$$
KRAMAR/SCHOOR
000
FXUS61 KRNK 080536
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1236 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SLOWING
DOWN OVER THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NARROW BAND OF -SHRA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN KY CONTINUES
TO EDGE EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES AND SHOULD REACH THE FAR
WESTERN CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. APPEARS STILL ENOUGH SUPPORT
ALOFT PER VORT AXIS/WEAK DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A SHORT WINDOW OF SHRA
SE WVA/FAR SW VA SO BUMPED UP TIMING AND POPS A LITTLE THRU
SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WITH DRY AIR FATHER EAST AS SEEN
VIA 00Z RAOBS/DEWPOINTS AND WEAKENING LIFT...LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE
SHRA BAND BASICALLY FADING CROSSING THE RIDGES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
SLOWNESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND SW FLOW THINK STILL SOME TIME FOR RH
TO INCREASE A BIT TOWARD MORNING OUT EAST WHERE WILL LEAVE IN LOW
POPS. OTRW CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REBOUND A BIT AFTER FALLING OFF THIS EVENING...SO ADJUSTED LOWS UP
SOME ESPCLY FOOTHILLS WEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL.
OTHER THAN UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY RAINFALL ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES INTO EARLY SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE
WEST EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE EAST DURING SAT
AFTN. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 25-30
MPH. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN SO SUN WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...WITH A FEW 40S ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AND
WITH SOME MOISTURE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT
FORCING IS WEAKER BY THEN TO ONLY HAVE SPRINKLES. 850 TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW ZERO HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS STAYING ABOVE 1300M.
SOME OF THESE SPRINKLE MAY GET CONVERTED OVER INTO FLURRIES ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY AND TOWARDS WHITETOP IN
GRAYSON COUNTY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT WITH A WEST WIND...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HARD PRESSED. A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST SUNDAY AND WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH DOWNSLOPING
FLOW...HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS IN THE EAST...WHICH COULD BRING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S SUNDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. ON MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BLENDING WITH
HPC SOLUTION OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. ITS LOOKING TO BE A WETTER WEEK
THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT TERRIFICLY HIGH. WITH
THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WV/SW VA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
WHERE SOME OF THAT PRECIP COULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW KEPT MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
GREENBRIER VALLEY/NRN BLUE RIDGE...ALBEIT SMALL AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN AND WILL BE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO WEDGE OVER THE AREA TUE-THU WHILE THE
SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY WED...AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A MILLER B CONFIG THU
AS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...PER THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL WAS SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES/HPC ARE STICKING WITH ONE SFC LOW
MOVING FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THU-FRI. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE WED-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...LEANING COOLER THAN HPC ON HIGHS IN TYPICAL WEDGED AREAS
TUE-THU. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY TOUCH THE DRIER AIR NEAR
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. KBLF STANDS THE BEST CHC AT IFR VIS OR CIG
TONIGHT...EITHER FROM THE SHWS OVERHEAD NOW...OR THE LOW CIGS
WHICH MAY DEVELOP WITH A WEST WIND AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES EAST PER DOWNSLOPE WHILE LEAVING SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/JS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KM
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080250
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
950 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PER 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...STUBBORN LLVL CLDNS/MSTR LINGERING INVOF
PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN SHR...OTRW GENLY SKC AND MILD ACRS FA SO
FAR THIS EVE. APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE W SPRDG CLDNS EWD AND CLSR
TO FA...BUT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT CPL/FEW HRS...CONDS WL RMN MCLR
AWAY FM IMMEDIATE CST. KEPT FG MENTION INVOF ERN SHR (ESP LWR
MD)...WHL SLOWING DN SHRA CVRG ACRS THE FA...GENLY CONFINING POPS
TO CNTRL/WRN AREAS OF FA. LO TEMPS TRIMMED BY A CPL OF DEGS F MOST
PLCS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUED WITH THE 30-40% POPS DURING THE DAY SAT AS THE WEAKENING
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SAT EVENING. EXPECT POST-FRONTAL
CLEARING TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WRN PTNS OF THE
REGION BY LATE SAT AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I-95...WITH THE
DEEPENING WRLY LLVL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW SUN AND MON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES OFF VA CST STILL SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST. WESTERN
EDGE OF SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE LOW STILL ALONG THE
COAST/OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR EASTERN SHORE
(INCL SBY) UNTIL 21Z. OTW...VFR CONDS (FAIR CU FIELD NEAR 3 KFT
ALONG ERN VA) FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/ ERLY EVNG ACROSS MAINLAND
VA AND NE NC AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION. EXPECT MARINE
CLOUD LAYER TO BUILD BACK INTO THE COAST (INCL SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG)
WITH LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. NEAR CSTL SITES TO MAINLY SEE
FOG.
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND CROSS THE REGION ON SAT WITH A CHC OF
SHRAS/REDUCED AVN CONDS AFTER 12Z. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA
FOR SUN INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 250NM OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER
EAST. ALLOWED SCA TO DROP SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES WITH SEAS BELOW
5FT OFF DUCK AND BUOY 44099. SEAS SLOWLY DECREASING AT BUOY
44009...NOW BELOW 6 FT...THO WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES UNTIL 1 AM.
A COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE WATERS SAT AFTN...EXPECT WNDS AND SEAS/WAVES
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN
INTO TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...ALB/BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KLWX 080217 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
SEEN ON SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS ATTM WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A CDFNT APPROACHES. GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. GFS AND RUC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER AND
NAM/SREF SLOWER. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP TO THE FASTER
MODELS AS LATEST 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF HAVE TRENDED FASTER. IN ANY
CASE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BEST
UPPER SUPPORT PASSING TO THE NORTH. TIMING OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 09-15Z SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT INCREDIBLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
LOW POPS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
QUICKLY RETREATS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVASION OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z ECMWF IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE NOR AS FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
GFS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THERE/S MORE DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER...AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OR NOT.
FOLLOWING HPC...HAVE TAKEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES/AREAS OF
LIFT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK /FRIDAY/...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z NAM WITH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
AFFECT THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND SREFS BRING MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE NAM BRINGING IN ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES
LATER SATURDAY MORNING. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
SREFS...BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC YET. NO IFR CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY...BUT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS /GUSTS/ MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THAN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY...BUT QUICKLY RETREATS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS
TO SWITCH TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEPARTURES
MAY INCREASE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF FOOT...BUT ALL LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSA
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
000
FXUS61 KRNK 080200
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
900 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SLOWING
DOWN OVER THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NARROW BAND OF -SHRA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN KY CONTINUES
TO EDGE EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES AND SHOULD REACH THE FAR
WESTERN CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. APPEARS STILL ENOUGH SUPPORT
ALOFT PER VORT AXIS/WEAK DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A SHORT WINDOW OF SHRA
SE WVA/FAR SW VA SO BUMPED UP TIMING AND POPS A LITTLE THRU
SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WITH DRY AIR FATHER EAST AS SEEN
VIA 00Z RAOBS/DEWPOINTS AND WEAKENING LIFT...LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE
SHRA BAND BASICALLY FADING CROSSING THE RIDGES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
SLOWNESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND SW FLOW THINK STILL SOME TIME FOR RH
TO INCREASE A BIT TOWARD MORNING OUT EAST WHERE WILL LEAVE IN LOW
POPS. OTRW CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REBOUND A BIT AFTER FALLING OFF THIS EVENING...SO ADJUSTED LOWS UP
SOME ESPCLY FOOTHILLS WEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL.
OTHER THAN UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY RAINFALL ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES INTO EARLY SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE
WEST EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE EAST DURING SAT
AFTN. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 25-30
MPH. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN SO SUN WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...WITH A FEW 40S ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AND
WITH SOME MOISTURE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT
FORCING IS WEAKER BY THEN TO ONLY HAVE SPRINKLES. 850 TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW ZERO HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS STAYING ABOVE 1300M.
SOME OF THESE SPRINKLE MAY GET CONVERTED OVER INTO FLURRIES ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY AND TOWARDS WHITETOP IN
GRAYSON COUNTY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT WITH A WEST WIND...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HARD PRESSED. A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST SUNDAY AND WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH DOWNSLOPING
FLOW...HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS IN THE EAST...WHICH COULD BRING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S SUNDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. ON MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BLENDING WITH
HPC SOLUTION OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. ITS LOOKING TO BE A WETTER WEEK
THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT TERRIFICLY HIGH. WITH
THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WV/SW VA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
WHERE SOME OF THAT PRECIP COULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW KEPT MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
GREENBRIER VALLEY/NRN BLUE RIDGE...ALBEIT SMALL AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN AND WILL BE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO WEDGE OVER THE AREA TUE-THU WHILE THE
SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY WED...AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A MILLER B CONFIG THU
AS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...PER THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL WAS SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES/HPC ARE STICKING WITH ONE SFC LOW
MOVING FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THU-FRI. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE WED-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...LEANING COOLER THAN HPC ON HIGHS IN TYPICAL WEDGED AREAS
TUE-THU. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHIELD OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WORKS INTO THE AREA. BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEST BETWEEN 02-08Z AND ACROSS THE EAST AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT. HOWEVER COVERAGE OF THIS RAINFALL LOOKS QUITE SPORADIC
WITH ONLY OCNL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY GO
INTO IFR CAT AT BLF LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT COMES THRU BETWEEN
08 AND 11Z.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES EAST PER DOWNSLOPE WHILE LEAVING SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/JS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/JS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 072318
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
618 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...SLOWING DOWN
OVER THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT TO COME THRU THE AREA TONIGHT WITH BAND OF SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN PRTS OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING
THEN SPREADING INTO THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
WANING AS THE FRONT CROSSES SO RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA. A WEAK WAVE FORMING ON THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT MAY CAUSE THE FRONT...AND A FEW
SHOWERS...TO LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AVERAGING A
QUARTER INCH IN THE FAR WEST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL AVERAGE ONE
OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
OTHER THAN UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY RAINFALL ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE
EAST DURING SAT AFTN. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOT
EXCEED 25-30 MPH. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN SO SUN WILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...WITH A FEW
40S ON THE WESTERN SLOPES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AND
WITH SOME MOISTURE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT
FORCING IS WEAKER BY THEN TO ONLY HAVE SPRINKLES. 850 TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW ZERO HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS STAYING ABOVE 1300M.
SOME OF THESE SPRINKLE MAY GET CONVERTED OVER INTO FLURRIES ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY AND TOWARDS WHITETOP IN
GRAYSON COUNTY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT WITH A WEST WIND...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HARD PRESSED. A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST SUNDAY AND WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH DOWNSLOPING
FLOW...HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS IN THE EAST...WHICH COULD BRING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S SUNDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. ON MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BLENDING WITH
HPC SOLUTION OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. ITS LOOKING TO BE A WETTER WEEK
THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT TERRIFICLY HIGH. WITH
THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WV/SW VA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
WHERE SOME OF THAT PRECIP COULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW KEPT MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
GREENBRIER VALLEY/NRN BLUE RIDGE...ALBEIT SMALL AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN AND WILL BE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO WEDGE OVER THE AREA TUE-THU WHILE THE
SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY WED...AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A MILLER B CONFIG THU
AS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...PER THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL WAS SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES/HPC ARE STICKING WITH ONE SFC LOW
MOVING FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THU-FRI. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE WED-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...LEANING COOLER THAN HPC ON HIGHS IN TYPICAL WEDGED AREAS
TUE-THU. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHIELD OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WORKS INTO THE AREA. BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEST BETWEEN 02-08Z AND ACROSS THE EAST AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT. HOWEVER COVERAGE OF THIS RAINFALL LOOKS QUITE SPORADIC
WITH ONLY OCNL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY GO
INTO IFR CAT AT BLF LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT COMES THRU BETWEEN
08 AND 11Z.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES EAST PER DOWNSLOPE WHILE LEAVING SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...AMS/JS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/JS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072108
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD...
WITH THE DEFORMATION IN BTWN CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE AND THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST. BACK EDGE OF THE LOW LVL CLOUDS ASSCD WITH
THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS BEEN GRADUALLY PROGRESSING E THROUGH THE FCST
AREA. CURRENTLY...CLEARING HAS ENCOMPASSED ALL OF SERN VA AND NERN
NC...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER ERN SHORE.
TONIGHT...AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE ERN AREAS THIS EVENING...
GIVEN THE LACK OF DAYTIME MIXING (DRYING) IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING
THE DAY...ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATION FOG TOWARD MIDNIGHT
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM SFC WINDS. THIS BEFORE WE SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT LEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...THE BULK OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS. THIS GIVEN THE RATHER NARROW
MOISTURE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT (LIMITED MSTR TAPPED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO)...COINCIDING WITH THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING EFFECTS WITH THE
SW PRE-FRONTAL LLVL FLOW E OF THE MNTNS. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LIMITED (<50%) RAIN CHANCES LATE...AND MAINLY W OF I-95. AT
MOST EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUED WITH THE 30-40% POPS DURING THE DAY SAT AS THE WEAKENING
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SAT EVENING. EXPECT POST-FRONTAL
CLEARING TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WRN PTNS OF THE
REGION BY LATE SAT AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I-95...WITH THE
DEEPENING WRLY LLVL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW SUN AND MON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DIFFERENCES LIE IN RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF DIGGING TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS MID-LATE WK. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE RGN FROM THE SW EARLY IN THE WK LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE
SITUATION INTO TUE. BEYOND THAT GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH HINT ON SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. QUESTION REMAINS ON WILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE BE SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE ADVANCING TROF
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THEORY...WHILE THE GFS HINTING AT A SPLIT FLOW DVLPG
WITH MOST UPR LVL DYNAMICS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS
WOULD MAKE FOR A SPLIT FLOW THAT WOULD ROB THE CWA OF A GOOD DEAL
OF REMAINING PRECIP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT/CHC LVL FOR NOW. TEMPS BLO
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A TREND TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES OFF VA CST STILL SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST. WESTERN
EDGE OF SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE LOW STILL ALONG THE
COAST/OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR EASTERN SHORE
(INCL SBY) UNTIL 21Z. OTW...VFR CONDS (FAIR CU FIELD NEAR 3 KFT
ALONG ERN VA) FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/ ERLY EVNG ACROSS MAINLAND
VA AND NE NC AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION. EXPECT MARINE
CLOUD LAYER TO BUILD BACK INTO THE COAST (INCL SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG)
WITH LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. NEAR CSTL SITES TO MAINLY SEE
FOG.
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND CROSS THE REGION ON SAT WITH A CHC OF
SHRAS/REDUCED AVN CONDS AFTER 12Z. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA
FOR SUN INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 250NM OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER
EAST. ALLOWED SCA TO DROP SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES WITH SEAS BELOW
5FT OFF DUCK AND BUOY 44099. SEAS SLOWLY DECREASING AT BUOY
44009...NOW BELOW 6 FT...THO WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES UNTIL 1 AM.
A COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE WATERS SAT AFTN...EXPECT WNDS AND SEAS/WAVES
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN
INTO TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071956 CCA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NAMES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN SOUTH TO MISSISSIPPI. THIS
IS CLEARLY SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A NATIONAL
RADAR PICTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S ALONG THE BAY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ALL DAY...AROUND 70
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL ONLY FILL
BACK IN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY THE CLOUD INCREASE.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z...NOT MAKING IT TO
THE METRO CORRIDOR UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z. WENT WARMER THAN THE ADJ MET
AND MAV NUMBERS GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPPER 40S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SPC HAS A GENERAL THUNDER LINE FROM LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO BALTIMORE AND LOCATIONS EAST. WITH SUCH A SMALL
AREA BEING COVERED AND LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDER...WILL KEEP JUST SHOWERS MENTIONED.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT A LOT OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT INCREDIBLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
LOW POPS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
QUICKLY RETREATS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVASION OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z ECMWF IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE NOR AS FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
GFS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THERE/S MORE DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER...AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OR NOT.
FOLLOWING HPC...HAVE TAKEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES/AREAS OF
LIFT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK /FRIDAY/...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z NAM WITH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
AFFECT THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND SREFS BRING MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE NAM BRINGING IN ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES
LATER SATURDAY MORNING. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
SREFS...BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC YET. NO IFR CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY...BUT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS /GUSTS/ MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THAN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY...BUT QUICKLY RETREATS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS
TO SWITCH TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEPARTURES
MAY INCREASE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF FOOT...BUT ALL LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...SAR
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...SAR/PELOQUIN
MARINE...SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071943
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN SOUTH TO MISSISSIPPI. THIS
IS CLEARLY SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A NATIONAL
RADAR PICTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S ALONG THE BAY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ALL DAY...AROUND 70
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL ONLY FILL
BACK IN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY THE CLOUD INCREASE.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z...NOT MAKING IT TO
THE METRO CORRIDOR UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z. WENT WARMER THAN THE ADJ MET
AND MAV NUMBERS GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPPER 40S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SPC HAS A GENERAL THUNDER LINE FROM LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO BALTIMORE AND LOCATIONS EAST. WITH SUCH A SMALL
AREA BEING COVERED AND LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDER...WILL KEEP JUST SHOWERS MENTIONED.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT A LOT OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT INCREDIBLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
LOW POPS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
QUICKLY RETREATS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVASION OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z ECMWF IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE NOR AS FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
GFS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THERE/S MORE DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER...AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OR NOT.
FOLLOWING HPC...HAVE TAKEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES/AREAS OF
LIFT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK /FRIDAY/...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z NAM WITH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
AFFECT THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND SREFS BRING MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE NAM BRINGING IN ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES
LATER SATURDAY MORNING. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
SREFS...BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC YET. NO IFR CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY...BUT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS /GUSTS/ MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THAN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY...BUT QUICKLY RETREATS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS
TO SWITCH TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEPARTURES
MAY INCREASE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF FOOT...BUT ALL LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...SAR/PELOQUIN
MARINE...SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
000
FXUS61 KRNK 071928
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
228 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...SLOWING DOWN
OVER THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT TO COME THRU THE AREA TONIGHT WITH BAND OF SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN PRTS OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING
THEN SPREADING INTO THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
WANING AS THE FRONT CROSSES SO RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA. A WEAK WAVE FORMING ON THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT MAY CAUSE THE FRONT...AND A FEW
SHOWERS...TO LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AVERAGING A
QUARTER INCH IN THE FAR WEST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL AVERAGE ONE
OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
OTHER THAN UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY RAINFALL ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE
EAST DURING SAT AFTN. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOT
EXCEED 25-30 MPH. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN SO SUN WILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...WITH A FEW
40S ON THE WESTERN SLOPES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AND
WITH SOME MOISTURE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT
FORCING IS WEAKER BY THEN TO ONLY HAVE SPRINKLES. 850 TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW ZERO HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS STAYING ABOVE 1300M.
SOME OF THESE SPRINKLE MAY GET CONVERTED OVER INTO FLURRIES ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY AND TOWARDS WHITETOP IN
GRAYSON COUNTY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT WITH A WEST WIND...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HARD PRESSED. A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST SUNDAY AND WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH DOWNSLOPING
FLOW...HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS IN THE EAST...WHICH COULD BRING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S SUNDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. ON MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BLENDING WITH
HPC SOLUTION OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. ITS LOOKING TO BE A WETTER WEEK
THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT TERRIFICLY HIGH. WITH
THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WV/SW VA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
WHERE SOME OF THAT PRECIP COULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW KEPT MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
GREENBRIER VALLEY/NRN BLUE RIDGE...ALBEIT SMALL AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN AND WILL BE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO WEDGE OVER THE AREA TUE-THU WHILE THE
SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY WED...AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAKE ON A MILLER B CONFIG THU
AS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...PER THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL WAS SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES/HPC ARE STICKING WITH ONE SFC LOW
MOVING FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THU-FRI. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE WED-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...LEANING COOLER THAN HPC ON HIGHS IN TYPICAL WEDGED AREAS
TUE-THU. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THICK CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SERVICE AREA GENERALLY AFTER
SUNSET. THEN SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ABOUT
02Z AND 14Z. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY GO INTO IFR CAT AT BLF LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT COMES THRU BETWEEN 08 AND 10Z.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES EAST WHILE LEAVING SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS
IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS TODAY
BLUEFIELD 70/2004
BLACKSBURG 76/1975
ROANOKE 78/1945
LYNCHBURG 77/1965
DANVILLE 83/1975
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JS
CLIMATE...RCS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071836
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PCPN FROM ERN SHORE AS CSTL LOW
AND ASSCTD PCPN NOW PULLING FRTHR OUT TO SEA. KEPT PTCHY FOG IN
FOR NXT FEW HRS GIVEN BKN-OVC SC DECK SCATTERING OUT.
STACKED UPR LVL LOW OFF OF DELMARVA PROGGED TO MOVE FRTHR E AND
AWAY FROM RGN AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF FROM THE W. LTST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOMR WRAPARND ECHOES AS FAR W AS THE VA/MD ERN SHORES. MAY
HAVE TO CONT SLGHT CHC POPS THRU 7 AM ALONG THE ERN SHORE...DECISION
WILL BE MADE JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS.
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...WILL CONT TO MENTION THE PTCHY FOG ERLY
THIS AM (FOG ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT).
OTW...TCSTNS SHOW DRYING IN COLUMN ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE W OF
CHES BAY. CLOUDY SKIES THIS AM BECOME PT-M SUNNY ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTRN. SINCE WE ALRDY HAVE A FREEZE..CUD DESCRIBE TDYS WRMTH AS
"INDIAN SUMMER". H85 TMPS SPRT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S...COOLEST
ALONG THE COAST (65-70 OXB) RANGING TO U70S ACROSS SW. NOT QUITE TO
RECORD LVLS THOUGH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BLO FOR TDYS RECORDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES E AS CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE W. XPCT CLDS
TO INCRS AFTR MIDNIGHT W-E. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE SREF WRT THE FROPA.
MSTR FIELDS INDCT A FEW SHWRS PSBL OVR XTREME WRN CNTYS AFTR 09Z TONITE
(BASICALLY ON A LKU-FVX LINE). AIRMASS BASICALLY TO DRY FRTHR E TO SPRT
ANY PCPN. ANTHR MILD NITE AHEAD WITH LOW IN THE 50S.
UPR TROF OVR GT LAKES RGN AMPLIFIES ON SAT. TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS
THE RGN THRU OUT THE DAY. LTST DATA SPRTS BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
(SHWRS) WILL LIFT NE SAT ACROSS WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF FA WITH LTL IN THE
WAY OF SPRT ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS. THUS... HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLGHT
CHC ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS SAT AFTRN. ELSEWHERE KEPT A 30 POP FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY VRY LIMITED WITH FROPA. HOWEVER...DUE TO BNDRY COMING THRU
IN MID AFTRN...CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SAT AFTRN FROM NRN
NECK ON NE ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...BUT WILL OUT OF FCST ATTM AS
CHC IS VRY LOW. HIGHS U60S N TO L-M70S S.
FRNT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT EVE. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS LWR MD
ERN SHORE AREA THRU EVE HRS AS MSTR LINGERS FOR A FEW HRS. SKIES THEN
BECOME MAINLY CLR SAT NITE AND COOLER. TMPS DROP INTO THE 40S TO L50S.
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY DESPITE PLNTY OF SUN. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY ERY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S...U50S TO L60S MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES OFF VA CST STILL SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST. WESTERN
EDGE OF SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE LOW STILL ALONG THE
COAST/OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR EASTERN SHORE
(INCL SBY) UNTIL 21Z. OTW...VFR CONDS (FAIR CU FIELD NEAR 3 KFT
ALONG ERN VA) FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/ ERLY EVNG ACROSS MAINLAND
VA AND NE NC AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION. EXPECT MARINE
CLOUD LAYER TO BUILD BACK INTO THE COAST (INCL SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG)
WITH LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. NEAR CSTL SITES TO MAINLY SEE
FOG.
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND CROSS THE REGION ON SAT WITH A CHC OF
SHRAS/REDUCED AVN CONDS AFTER 12Z. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA
FOR SUN INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 250NM OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER
EAST. ALLOWED SCA TO DROP SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES WITH SEAS BELOW
5FT OFF DUCK AND BUOY 44099. SEAS SLOWLY DECREASING AT BUOY
44009...NOW BELOW 6 FT...THO WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES UNTIL 1 AM.
A COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE WATERS SAT AFTN...EXPECT WNDS AND SEAS/WAVES
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN
INTO TUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/7:
RIC...79 IN 1978...1975
ORF...78 IN 1975...1938
SBY...78 IN 1938
ECG...81 IN 1986
WAL...69 IN 2005...1996
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...BAJ/TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071759
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1259 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PCPN FROM ERN SHORE AS CSTL LOW
AND ASSCTD PCPN NOW PULLING FRTHR OUT TO SEA. KEPT PTCHY FOG IN
FOR NXT FEW HRS GIVEN BKN-OVC SC DECK SCATTERING OUT.
STACKED UPR LVL LOW OFF OF DELMARVA PROGGED TO MOVE FRTHR E AND
AWAY FROM RGN AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF FROM THE W. LTST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOMR WRAPARND ECHOES AS FAR W AS THE VA/MD ERN SHORES. MAY
HAVE TO CONT SLGHT CHC POPS THRU 7 AM ALONG THE ERN SHORE...DECISION
WILL BE MADE JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS.
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...WILL CONT TO MENTION THE PTCHY FOG ERLY
THIS AM (FOG ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT).
OTW...TCSTNS SHOW DRYING IN COLUMN ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE W OF
CHES BAY. CLOUDY SKIES THIS AM BECOME PT-M SUNNY ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTRN. SINCE WE ALRDY HAVE A FREEZE..CUD DESCRIBE TDYS WRMTH AS
"INDIAN SUMMER". H85 TMPS SPRT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S...COOLEST
ALONG THE COAST (65-70 OXB) RANGING TO U70S ACROSS SW. NOT QUITE TO
RECORD LVLS THOUGH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BLO FOR TDYS RECORDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES E AS CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE W. XPCT CLDS
TO INCRS AFTR MIDNIGHT W-E. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE SREF WRT THE FROPA.
MSTR FIELDS INDCT A FEW SHWRS PSBL OVR XTREME WRN CNTYS AFTR 09Z TONITE
(BASICALLY ON A LKU-FVX LINE). AIRMASS BASICALLY TO DRY FRTHR E TO SPRT
ANY PCPN. ANTHR MILD NITE AHEAD WITH LOW IN THE 50S.
UPR TROF OVR GT LAKES RGN AMPLIFYS ON SAT. TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS
THE RGN THRU OUT THE DAY. LTST DATA SPRTS BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
(SHWRS) WILL LIFT NE SATACROSS WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF FA WITH LTL IN THE
WAY OF SPRT ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS. THUS... HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLGHT
CHC ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS SAT AFTRN. ELSEWHERE KEPT A 30 POP FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY VRY LIMITED WITH FROPA. HOWEVER...DUE TO BNDRY COMING THRU
IN MID AFTRN...CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SAT AFTRN FROM NRN
NECK ON NE ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...BUT WILL OUT OF FCST ATTM AS
CHC IS VRY LOW. HIGHS U60S N TO L-M70S S.
FRNT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT EVE. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS LWR MD
ERN SHORE AREA THRU EVE HRS AS MSTR LINGERS FOR A FEW HRS. SKIES THEN
BECOME MAINLY CLR SAT NITE AND COOLER. TMPS DROP INTO THE 40S TO L50S.
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY DESPITE PLNTY OF SUN. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY ERY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S...U50S TO L60S MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CIGS (ESPLY) WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNG OVR ERN
TAF SITES...AS LO PRES OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE E. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN...AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
OVR THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE WKND
INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRNT SAT WITH A
SML CHC OF SHRAS. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE FOR THE CSTL WTRS FOR TDY INTO TNGT...AS
SEAS STAY UP UNTIL LO PRES OFF THE CST MOVES FARTHER AWAY TO THE E.
OTHRWISE...COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE REGION SAT...BUT WNDS AND
SEAS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE
AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/7:
RIC...79 IN 1978
ORF...78 IN 1975
SBY...78 IN 1938
ECG...81 IN 1986
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 071754
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1254 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST. A SERIES OF
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH HEIGHTS
STARTING TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON. FULL SUN FOR MOST AREAS TODAY
WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. GUIDANCE WAS TO COOL EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY SO WENT WARMER THAN MAV FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL PUT A FEW
LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
MODELS HAVE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA JUST AFTER
00Z...THEN PCPN SHIELD TENDING TO BREAK UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
FCST AREA AS DYNAMICS BEGIN LIFTING NE.
LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 03Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING A THIN LINE OF SHWS...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN CLOUDY
AND CLEAR JUST TO ITS WEST EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE MAIN STORM
CONTINUES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT THIS LINE TO
SLOW DOWN A TAD...SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA INTO
SATURDAY A BIT. ALSO..SHWS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ONCE THE LINE EXITS
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV SWINGING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES H5 LOW...AND STILL GOOD LLVL MOISTURE...CLDS SHOULD FILL
BACK IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SHWS. HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL DETERMINE IF GUIDANCE IS
TOO WARM ON HIGHS FROM THE LWB/BLF/6V3 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY...WHICH I SUSPECT. THUS...WENT SOMEWHAT BELOW GUIDANCE
AVG IN THESE PARTS. SAT NIGHT...ANOTHER SHTWV CUTTING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL AGAIN WORK ON ANY LLVL MOISTURE
REMAINING...AND POPS SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ARE MORE DUE TO ITS FORCING
INSTEAD OF UPSLOPE...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS TOO LARGE IN THE
LLVLS FOR MUCH OF AN UPSLOPE EFFECT. WORTH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
BELOW 3KFT WITH ALL SNOW ABV 3KFT. ANY ACCUMS WOULD BE LIGHT IF
ANYTHING AT ALL. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE UNDERDONE WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP NEAR BLF/6V3 WITH A SHRTWV TAKING THIS ROUTE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS SCANT THIS FAR SOUTH. NONETHELESS KEPT A SLT CHC
THERE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EXTREME WEST COULD MEAN
DECOUPLING AND LOWS BELOW MOS...BUT FARTHER EAST WINDS WILL STAY
UP AS HIGH PRESSURE IS TOO LATE ARRIVING...KEEPING MIN T FROM
FALLING TO HARD THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF/GFS/ENSEMBLES THOUGH DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING
MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SW CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN PUSHING INTO THE NC MTNS/SW VA MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE BY DAWN TUESDAY. LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AT
A WEDGE SETUP IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS
NORTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. LOOK FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO BE THE
GREATEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...WE SEE A MILLER B
SCENARIO AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE VA CAPES AND THE OTHER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THU BY WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COOL WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A
WEDGE...WITH LOW DIURNAL SWINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THICK CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SERVICE AREA GENERALLY AFTER
SUNSET. THEN SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ABOUT
02Z AND 14Z. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY GO INTO IFR CAT AT BLF LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT COMES THRU BETWEEN 08 AND 10Z.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES EAST WHILE LEAVING SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS
IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS TODAY
BLUEFIELD 70/2004
BLACKSBURG 76/1975
ROANOKE 78/1945
LYNCHBURG 77/1965
DANVILLE 83/1975
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...AMS/JS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM/WP
AVIATION...AMS/JS
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071513
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1013 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE SKY COVER. MOSTLY SUNNY
WEST OF A LINE FROM FREDERICK COUNTY MARYLAND TO DC TO LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS ARE FURTHER EAST
ON THE DELMARVA...A PERIPHERAL BAND LOOKS TO BE TRYING TO SKIRT
SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD FIELD. THEN...THERE ARE
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL
GRADUALLY FILL IN WITH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY TO
WORD THE ZONES ACCORDINGLY.
LOOKS LIKE A WARM NOVEMBER DAY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING RECORDS.
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF THE
THICKER CLOUDS STICK AROUND FROM BALTIMORE TO JUST EAST OF DC INTO
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS MENTIONED...CUTOFF LOW OVER UPPER MIDWEST. JET RUNNING FM THE
GULF STATES TO LAKE HURON W/ THE SFC CD FNT CAUGHT UP IN IT.
SHOWER ACTVTY SOMEWHAT SPOTTY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. BUT THIS IS
PROGGED TO MAKE A SLOW STEADY EWD PROGRESSION...AND HV MAINTAINED
THE AFTR MDNGT POPS...BEGINNING IN THE W AND REACHING THE BAY BY
MRNG. QPF`S WILL BE LOW.
NOT A COOL NGT FOR NOV - M40S FAR W...M50S E.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF UPPER VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE GRT LKS REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. THEY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHRA/S AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...GRT LKS AND INTO NRN PRTNS OF THE OH VLY. LITTLE
TO NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO THE MID ATLNC. THE
FIRST VORT MAX WILL ACROSS WI/MI ON SAT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CNTL APLCHNS EARLY SAT. PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
MORE STEADY ACTIVITY FROM THE PTMC HILANDS AND ACROSS THE
MASON-DIXON LINE W/ NRN MD SEEING THE BEST CHNCS...TAPERING OFF
SOUTH OF THE I-66 CRDR. MORE ISLTD SHRA ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE I-95 CRDR DRNG THE EARLY AFTN SAT W/ PSBLE BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTHENING OF THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE MID ATLNC COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL NOT AN ARCTIC BLAST
SITUATION. MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING WRAPPED UP IN THE UPPER
LOW REGIME AS IT ROTATES UP N/WRD INTO THE ERN QUEBEC. BREEZY CONDS
ON SUNDAY AS FIRST UPPER VORT SLIDES THE TROF AXIS OVER THE MID
ATLNC...PICKING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST DRNG THE AFTN. THE STARK BUT
SHORT-LIVED ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID ATLNC MONDAY INTO TUES
WILL KEEP TEMPS MODERATED INTO THE M50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH SFC
WIND SPEEDS NOT AS HIGH AS UNDER NW FLOW BUT MONDAY WILL A FAIRLY
DRY AUTUMN DAY.
THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM LOOKING LESS DYNAMIC...MORE UNCERTAIN AND
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE ERN SEABOARD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GFS NOW IN A
BIT MORE AGREEMENT W/ ECMWF /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ ON THE SLOW DOWN OF
THE SETTING UP OF THE MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS
LAG WILL KEEP THE MID MS VLY UNDER PRECIP FOR LONGER...AS WELL AS
THE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH
VLY FOR LONGER AS WELL. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP COULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE MID ATLNC FROM TUES INTO WED. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHNC RANGE
THO...STILL THINKING THE TROF MAY DEEPEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...MAKING A DIRECT ROUTE INTO THE MID ATLNC FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT LIVED...SHOULD
BE CLEARED OUT BY NOON.
A COLD FRONT W/ INTERMITTENT BREEZY CONDS AND A FEW SCTD-ISLTD
SHRA/S...ESPC ACROSS NRN MD AND AREAS NORTH OF I-66. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRES AND DRIER CONDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUES
INTO WED...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO PROBS ON THE WATERS TDA OR TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT AFTN/EVNG. WINDS EXPTD
TO BE JUST BELOW SCA CONDS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY EXPTD TO
BE A BIT MORE BREEZY...W/ SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED FOR A PERIOD OF THE
LATE MRNG/AFTN FROM THE GUSTY W-NW/RLY WINDS...ESPC THE NRN BAY
REGION. HIGH PRES WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...W/
A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...SAR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WOODY!/GMS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 071455
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
955 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST. A SERIES OF
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH HEIGHTS
STARTING TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON. FULL SUN FOR MOST AREAS TODAY
WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. GUIDANCE WAS TO COOL EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY SO WENT WARMER THAN MAV FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL PUT A FEW
LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
MODELS HAVE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA JUST AFTER
00Z...THEN PCPN SHIELD TENDING TO BREAK UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
FCST AREA AS DYNAMICS BEGIN LIFTING NE.
LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 03Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING A THIN LINE OF SHWS...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN CLOUDY
AND CLEAR JUST TO ITS WEST EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE MAIN STORM
CONTINUES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT THIS LINE TO
SLOW DOWN A TAD...SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA INTO
SATURDAY A BIT. ALSO..SHWS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ONCE THE LINE EXITS
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV SWINGING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES H5 LOW...AND STILL GOOD LLVL MOISTURE...CLDS SHOULD FILL
BACK IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SHWS. HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL DETERMINE IF GUIDANCE IS
TOO WARM ON HIGHS FROM THE LWB/BLF/6V3 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY...WHICH I SUSPECT. THUS...WENT SOMEWHAT BELOW GUIDANCE
AVG IN THESE PARTS. SAT NIGHT...ANOTHER SHTWV CUTTING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL AGAIN WORK ON ANY LLVL MOISTURE
REMAINING...AND POPS SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ARE MORE DUE TO ITS FORCING
INSTEAD OF UPSLOPE...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS TOO LARGE IN THE
LLVLS FOR MUCH OF AN UPSLOPE EFFECT. WORTH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
BELOW 3KFT WITH ALL SNOW ABV 3KFT. ANY ACCUMS WOULD BE LIGHT IF
ANYTHING AT ALL. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE UNDERDONE WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP NEAR BLF/6V3 WITH A SHRTWV TAKING THIS ROUTE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS SCANT THIS FAR SOUTH. NONETHELESS KEPT A SLT CHC
THERE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EXTREME WEST COULD MEAN
DECOUPLING AND LOWS BELOW MOS...BUT FARTHER EAST WINDS WILL STAY
UP AS HIGH PRESSURE IS TOO LATE ARRIVING...KEEPING MIN T FROM
FALLING TO HARD THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF/GFS/ENSEMBLES THOUGH DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING
MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SW CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN PUSHING INTO THE NC MTNS/SW VA MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE BY DAWN TUESDAY. LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AT
A WEDGE SETUP IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS
NORTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. LOOK FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO BE THE
GREATEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...WE SEE A MILLER B
SCENARIO AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE VA CAPES AND THE OTHER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THU BY WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COOL WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A
WEDGE...WITH LOW DIURNAL SWINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AT LWB THIS MORNING...TAF LOCATIONS
WILL BE VFR TODAY.
CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER QUICKLY IN THE
WEST AFTER 21Z. SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES EAST WHILE LEAVING SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS
IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS TODAY
BLUEFIELD 70/2004
BLACKSBURG 76/1975
ROANOKE 78/1945
LYNCHBURG 77/1965
DANVILLE 83/1975
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...AMS/JS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM/WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 071155
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
655 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST. A SERIES OF
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH HEIGHTS
STARTING TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE WAS TO COOL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY SO WENT WARMER THAN MAV FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL PUT A FEW
LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
MODELS HAVE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
21-00Z TODAY...SO MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TIMING...OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 03Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING A THIN LINE OF SHWS...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN CLOUDY
AND CLEAR JUST TO ITS WEST EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE MAIN STORM
CONTINUES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT THIS LINE TO
SLOW DOWN A TAD...SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA INTO
SATURDAY A BIT. ALSO..SHWS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ONCE THE LINE EXITS
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV SWINGING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES H5 LOW...AND STILL GOOD LLVL MOISTURE...CLDS SHOULD FILL
BACK IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SHWS. HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL DETERMINE IF GUIDANCE IS
TOO WARM ON HIGHS FROM THE LWB/BLF/6V3 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY...WHICH I SUSPECT. THUS...WENT SOMEWHAT BELOW GUIDANCE
AVG IN THESE PARTS. SAT NIGHT...ANOTHER SHTWV CUTTING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL AGAIN WORK ON ANY LLVL MOISTURE
REMAINING...AND POPS SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ARE MORE DUE TO ITS FORCING
INSTEAD OF UPSLOPE...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS TOO LARGE IN THE
LLVLS FOR MUCH OF AN UPSLOPE EFFECT. WORTH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
BELOW 3KFT WITH ALL SNOW ABV 3KFT. ANY ACCUMS WOULD BE LIGHT IF
ANYTHING AT ALL. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE UNDERDONE WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP NEAR BLF/6V3 WITH A SHRTWV TAKING THIS ROUTE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS SCANT THIS FAR SOUTH. NONETHELESS KEPT A SLT CHC
THERE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EXTREME WEST COULD MEAN
DECOUPLING AND LOWS BELOW MOS...BUT FARTHER EAST WINDS WILL STAY
UP AS HIGH PRESSURE IS TOO LATE ARRIVING...KEEPING MIN T FROM
FALLING TO HARD THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF/GFS/ENSEMBLES THOUGH DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING
MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SW CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN PUSHING INTO THE NC MTNS/SW VA MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE BY DAWN TUESDAY. LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AT
A WEDGE SETUP IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS
NORTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. LOOK FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO BE THE
GREATEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...WE SEE A MILLER B
SCENARIO AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE VA CAPES AND THE OTHER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THU BY WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COOL WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A
WEDGE...WITH LOW DIURNAL SWINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AT LWB THIS MORNING...TAF LOCATIONS
WILL BE VFR TODAY.
CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER QUICKLY IN THE
WEST AFTER 21Z. SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES EAST WHILE LEAVING SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS
IN THE WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS TODAY
BLUEFIELD 70/2004
BLACKSBURG 76/1975
ROANOKE 78/1945
LYNCHBURG 77/1965
DANVILLE 83/1975
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM/WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
CLIMATE...AMS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071028
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
528 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PCPN FROM ERN SHORE AS CSTL LOW
AND ASSCTD PCPN NOW PULLING FRTHR OUT TO SEA. KEPT PTCHY FOG IN
FOR NXT FEW HRS GIVEN BKN-OVC SC DECK SCATTERING OUT.
STACKED UPR LVL LOW OFF OF DELMARVA PROGGED TO MOVE FRTHR E AND
AWAY FROM RGN AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF FROM THE W. LTST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOMR WRAPARND ECHOES AS FAR W AS THE VA/MD ERN SHORES. MAY
HAVE TO CONT SLGHT CHC POPS THRU 7 AM ALONG THE ERN SHORE...DECISION
WILL BE MADE JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS.
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...WILL CONT TO MENTION THE PTCHY FOG ERLY
THIS AM (FOG ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT).
OTW...TCSTNS SHOW DRYING IN COLUMN ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE W OF
CHES BAY. CLOUDY SKIES THIS AM BECOME PT-M SUNNY ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTRN. SINCE WE ALRDY HAVE A FREEZE..CUD DESCRIBE TDYS WRMTH AS
"INDIAN SUMMER". H85 TMPS SPRT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S...COOLEST
ALONG THE COAST (65-70 OXB) RANGING TO U70S ACROSS SW. NOT QUITE TO
RECORD LVLS THOUGH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BLO FOR TDYS RECORDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES E AS CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE W. XPCT CLDS
TO INCRS AFTR MIDNIGHT W-E. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE SREF WRT THE FROPA.
MSTR FIELDS INDCT A FEW SHWRS PSBL OVR XTREME WRN CNTYS AFTR 09Z TONITE
(BASICALLY ON A LKU-FVX LINE). AIRMASS BASICALLY TO DRY FRTHR E TO SPRT
ANY PCPN. ANTHR MILD NITE AHEAD WITH LOW IN THE 50S.
UPR TROF OVR GT LAKES RGN AMPLIFYS ON SAT. TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS
THE RGN THRU OUT THE DAY. LTST DATA SPRTS BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
(SHWRS) WILL LIFT NE SATACROSS WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF FA WITH LTL IN THE
WAY OF SPRT ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS. THUS... HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLGHT
CHC ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS SAT AFTRN. ELSEWHERE KEPT A 30 POP FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY VRY LIMITED WITH FROPA. HOWEVER...DUE TO BNDRY COMING THRU
IN MID AFTRN...CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SAT AFTRN FROM NRN
NECK ON NE ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...BUT WILL OUT OF FCST ATTM AS
CHC IS VRY LOW. HIGHS U60S N TO L-M70S S.
FRNT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT EVE. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS LWR MD
ERN SHORE AREA THRU EVE HRS AS MSTR LINGERS FOR A FEW HRS. SKIES THEN
BECOME MAINLY CLR SAT NITE AND COOLER. TMPS DROP INTO THE 40S TO L50S.
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY DESPITE PLNTY OF SUN. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY ERY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S...U50S TO L60S MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CIGS (ESPLY) WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNG OVR ERN
TAF SITES...AS LO PRES OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE E. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN...AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
OVR THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE WKND
INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRNT SAT WITH A
SML CHC OF SHRAS. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE FOR THE CSTL WTRS FOR TDY INTO TNGT...AS
SEAS STAY UP UNTIL LO PRES OFF THE CST MOVES FARTHER AWAY TO THE E.
OTHRWISE...COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE REGION SAT...BUT WNDS AND
SEAS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE
AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/7:
RIC...79 IN 1978
ORF...78 IN 1975
SBY...78 IN 1938
ECG...81 IN 1986
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 070906
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
406 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WENT OUT AND TOOK AN OB AT 1 AM - LOW OVC. TOOK ANOTHER AT 3 AM -
SKC. 11-3.9 MU STLT SHOWS A VERY CLR DEMARKATION BTWN THE 2. ATTM
CLRG JUST TO THE W OF DC. THEREFORE QUSTN DURG RMNDR OF OVRNGT HRS
WL BE HOW MUCH FOG IS GOING TO FORM? IN MANY PLACES SVRL DEGS BTWN
TEMP AND DWPT. WE`LL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAY HV TO DO A PRE-DAWN
UPDATE..OR ATL EAST ISSUE SOME NOWCASTS...B4 SHIFT IS OVER.
NEXT QUSTN IS HOW MUCH CLD DVLPMNT WL THERE BE TDA? MDLS REALLY
HANG ONTO THE LO LVL MOISTURE...IN FACT THESE WANT IT TO BE CLDY
RIGHT NOW RATHER THAN CLR WHICH MAKES ME WONDER ABT THE ABILITY TO
HANDLE CLDS TDA. BUT METEOROLOGICALLY - ALTHO NOT A LOT THERE HAS
BEEN SOME RAFL IN LAST TWO DAYS THIS COULD CERTAINLY TRANSLATE
INTO CU FORMATION THIS AFTN.
HIGH TEMPS TDA ACTUALLY CLOSE TO RECORDS. I`M FCSTG 72 AT IAD.
RECORD IS 74. DCA AND BWI RECORDS ARE A FEW DEGS HIGHER AND PRBLY
WON`T BE TOUCHED. BUT OVERALL A WARM DAY GIVEN UPR LVL RDG AND
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CD FNT CURRENTLY ENTERING INDIANA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED...CUTOFF LOW OVER UPPER MIDWEST. JET RUNNING FM THE
GULF STATES TO LAKE HURON W/ THE SFC CD FNT CAUGHT UP IN IT.
SHOWER ACTVTY SOMEWHAT SPOTTY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. BUT THIS IS
PROGGED TO MAKE A SLOW STEADY EWD PROGRESSION...AND HV MAINTAINED
THE AFTR MDNGT POPS...BEGINNING IN THE W AND REACHING THE BAY BY
MRNG. QPF`S WILL BE LOW.
NOT A COOL NGT FOR NOV - M40S FAR W...M50S E.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF UPPER VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE GRT LKS REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. THEY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHRA/S AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...GRT LKS AND INTO NRN PRTNS OF THE OH VLY. LITTLE
TO NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO THE MID ATLNC. THE
FIRST VORT MAX WILL ACROSS WI/MI ON SAT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CNTL APLCHNS EARLY SAT. PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
MORE STEADY ACTIVITY FROM THE PTMC HILANDS AND ACROSS THE
MASON-DIXON LINE W/ NRN MD SEEING THE BEST CHNCS...TAPERING OFF
SOUTH OF THE I-66 CRDR. MORE ISLTD SHRA ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE I-95 CRDR DRNG THE EARLY AFTN SAT W/ PSBLE BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTHENING OF THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE MID ATLNC COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL NOT AN ARCTIC BLAST
SITUATION. MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING WRAPPED UP IN THE UPPER
LOW REGIME AS IT ROTATES UP N/WRD INTO THE ERN QUEBEC. BREEZY CONDS
ON SUNDAY AS FIRST UPPER VORT SLIDES THE TROF AXIS OVER THE MID
ATLNC...PICKING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST DRNG THE AFTN. THE STARK BUT
SHORT-LIVED ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID ATLNC MONDAY INTO TUES
WILL KEEP TEMPS MODERATED INTO THE M50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH SFC
WIND SPEEDS NOT AS HIGH AS UNDER NW FLOW BUT MONDAY WILL A FAIRLY
DRY AUTUMN DAY.
THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM LOOKING LESS DYNAMIC...MORE UNCERTAIN AND
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE ERN SEABOARD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GFS NOW IN A
BIT MORE AGREEMENT W/ ECMWF /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ ON THE SLOW DOWN OF
THE SETTING UP OF THE MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS
LAG WILL KEEP THE MID MS VLY UNDER PRECIP FOR LONGER...AS WELL AS
THE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH
VLY FOR LONGER AS WELL. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP COULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE MID ATLNC FROM TUES INTO WED. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHNC RANGE
THO...STILL THINKING THE TROF MAY DEEPEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...MAKING A DIRECT ROUTE INTO THE MID ATLNC FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG FORMATION IS PSBL AT THE AIRPORTS THRU 13Z...THEN VFR TDA. LO
CHC OF RW BY MRNG SAT.
A COLD FRONT W/ INTERMITTENT BREEZY CONDS AND A FEW SCTD-ISLTD
SHRA/S...ESPC ACROSS NRN MD AND AREAS NORTH OF I-66. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRES AND DRIER CONDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUES
INTO WED...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO PROBS ON THE WATERS TDA OR TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT AFTN/EVNG. WINDS EXPTD
TO BE JUST BELOW SCA CONDS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY EXPTD TO
BE A BIT MORE BREEZY...W/ SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED FOR A PERIOD OF THE
LATE MRNG/AFTN FROM THE GUSTY W-NW/RLY WINDS...ESPC THE NRN BAY
REGION. HIGH PRES WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...W/
A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 070837
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
337 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST. A SERIES OF
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH HEIGHTS
STARTING TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE WAS TO COOL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY SO WENT WARMER THAN MAV FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL PUT A FEW
LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
MODELS HAVE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
21-00Z TODAY...SO MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TIMING...OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 03Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING A THIN LINE OF SHWS...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN CLOUDY
AND CLEAR JUST TO ITS WEST EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE MAIN STORM
CONTINUES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT THIS LINE TO
SLOW DOWN A TAD...SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA INTO
SATURDAY A BIT. ALSO..SHWS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ONCE THE LINE EXITS
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV SWINGING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES H5 LOW...AND STILL GOOD LLVL MOISTURE...CLDS SHOULD FILL
BACK IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SHWS. HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL DETERMINE IF GUIDANCE IS
TOO WARM ON HIGHS FROM THE LWB/BLF/6V3 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY...WHICH I SUSPECT. THUS...WENT SOMEWHAT BELOW GUIDANCE
AVG IN THESE PARTS. SAT NIGHT...ANOTHER SHTWV CUTTING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL AGAIN WORK ON ANY LLVL MOISTURE
REMAINING...AND POPS SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ARE MORE DUE TO ITS FORCING
INSTEAD OF UPSLOPE...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS TOO LARGE IN THE
LLVLS FOR MUCH OF AN UPSLOPE EFFECT. WORTH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
BELOW 3KFT WITH ALL SNOW ABV 3KFT. ANY ACCUMS WOULD BE LIGHT IF
ANYTHING AT ALL. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE UNDERDONE WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP NEAR BLF/6V3 WITH A SHRTWV TAKING THIS ROUTE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS SCANT THIS FAR SOUTH. NONETHELESS KEPT A SLT CHC
THERE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EXTREME WEST COULD MEAN
DECOUPLING AND LOWS BELOW MOS...BUT FARTHER EAST WINDS WILL STAY
UP AS HIGH PRESSURE IS TOO LATE ARRIVING...KEEPING MIN T FROM
FALLING TO HARD THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF/GFS/ENSEMBLES THOUGH DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING
MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SW CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN PUSHING INTO THE NC MTNS/SW VA MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE BY DAWN TUESDAY. LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AT
A WEDGE SETUP IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS
NORTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. LOOK FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO BE THE
GREATEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...WE SEE A MILLER B
SCENARIO AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE VA CAPES AND THE OTHER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THU BY WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COOL WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A
WEDGE...WITH LOW DIURNAL SWINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LWB. AROUND 08Z FRIDAY MORNING...LWB SHOULD HAVE
VLIFR CONDITIONS FROM RIVER FOG. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT ANY CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT AND MVFR SHWRS/CIGS ESPCLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN SITES. SINCE BUFKIT RAOBS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE STRONGER BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ADDING IN
SHRA MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB BEFORE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES EAST WHILE LEAVING SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS IN -RA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS TODAY
BLUEFIELD 70/2004
BLACKSBURG 76/1975
ROANOKE 78/1945
LYNCHBURG 77/1965
DANVILLE 83/1975
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM/WP
AVIATION...JH/RCS
CLIMATE...AMS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 070827
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST. A SERIES OF
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL SEEING SOME PERIODIC WRAP AROUND SCT/BKN AC/STRATO-CU OUT
EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW OFFSHORE OTRW CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. EXPECT RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL FINALLY
GIVE ALL MOISTURE A BOOT EAST LATE SO MAINTAINING OVERALL CLEAR
FORECAST TONIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PATCHY
SCENARIO AS SUGGESTED VIA 00Z RAOB STABILITY VALUES. THIS LOOKS
MORE SO ALONG THE THE GREENBRIER AND UPPER JAMES RIVERS. ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH DEWPOINTS UP SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST PER SOME CLOUDS AND NE
FLOW...RAISED LOWS A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST LAV MOS OUT
THERE. OTRW APPEARS RANGE FROM 30S IN THE VALLEYS TO 40S ELSW ON
TRACK SO ONLY MAKING SMALL TWEAKS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING A THIN LINE OF SHWS...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN CLOUDY
AND CLEAR JUST TO ITS WEST EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE MAIN STORM
CONTINUES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT THIS LINE TO
SLOW DOWN A TAD...SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA INTO
SATURDAY A BIT. ALSO..SHWS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ONCE THE LINE EXITS
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV SWINGING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES H5 LOW...AND STILL GOOD LLVL MOISTURE...CLDS SHOULD FILL
BACK IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SHWS. HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL DETERMINE IF GUIDANCE IS
TOO WARM ON HIGHS FROM THE LWB/BLF/6V3 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY...WHICH I SUSPECT. THUS...WENT SOMEWHAT BELOW GUIDANCE
AVG IN THESE PARTS. SAT NIGHT...ANOTHER SHTWV CUTTING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL AGAIN WORK ON ANY LLVL MOISTURE
REMAINING...AND POPS SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ARE MORE DUE TO ITS FORCING
INSTEAD OF UPSLOPE...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS TOO LARGE IN THE
LLVLS FOR MUCH OF AN UPSLOPE EFFECT. WORTH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
BELOW 3KFT WITH ALL SNOW ABV 3KFT. ANY ACCUMS WOULD BE LIGHT IF
ANYTHING AT ALL. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE UNDERDONE WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP NEAR BLF/6V3 WITH A SHRTWV TAKING THIS ROUTE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS SCANT THIS FAR SOUTH. NONETHELESS KEPT A SLT CHC
THERE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EXTREME WEST COULD MEAN
DECOUPLING AND LOWS BELOW MOS...BUT FARTHER EAST WINDS WILL STAY
UP AS HIGH PRESSURE IS TOO LATE ARRIVING...KEEPING MIN T FROM
FALLING TO HARD THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF/GFS/ENSEMBLES THOUGH DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING
MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE PACIFIC JET STILL ZONAL AND FAST...NOT EXPECTING ANY COLD
SNAPS UNTIL AFTER DAY 10. WILL THIS CURRENT JET CONFIGURATION
PORTEND OUR WINTER SEASON?
SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SW CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN PUSHING INTO THE NC MTNS/SW VA MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE BY DAWN TUESDAY. LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AT
A WEDGE SETUP IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS
NORTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. LOOK FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO BE THE
GREATEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...WE SEE A MILLER B
SCENARIO AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE VA CAPES AND THE OTHER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THU BY WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COOL WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A
WEDGE...WITH LOW DIURNAL SWINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LWB. AROUND 08Z FRIDAY MORNING...LWB SHOULD HAVE
VLIFR CONDITIONS FROM RIVER FOG. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT ANY CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT AND MVFR SHWRS/CIGS ESPCLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN SITES. SINCE BUFKIT RAOBS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE STRONGER BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ADDING IN
SHRA MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB BEFORE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES EAST WHILE LEAVING SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS IN -RA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY FRIDAY
BLUEFIELD 74/1975 70/2004
BLACKSBURG 79/1961 76/1975
ROANOKE 79/2005 78/1945
LYNCHBURG 78/1978 77/1965
DANVILLE 81/2003 83/1975
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM/WP
AVIATION...JH/RCS
CLIMATE...WP
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070801
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STACKED UPR LVL LOW OFF OF DELMARVA PROGGED TO MOVE FRTHR E AND
AWAY FROM RGN AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF FROM THE W. LTST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOMR WRAPARND ECHOES AS FAR W AS THE VA/MD ERN SHORES. MAY
HAVE TO CONT SLGHT CHC POPS THRU 7 AM ALONG THE ERN SHORE...DECISION
WILL BE MADE JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS.
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...WILL CONT TO MENTION THE PTCHY FOG ERLY
THIS AM (FOG ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT).
OTW...TCSTNS SHOW DRYING IN COLUMN ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE W OF
CHES BAY. CLOUDY SKIES THIS AM BECOME PT-M SUNNY ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTRN. SINCE WE ALRDY HAVE A FREEZE..CUD DESCRIBE TDYS WRMTH AS
"INDIAN SUMMER". H85 TMPS SPRT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S...COOLEST
ALONG THE COAST (65-70 OXB) RANGING TO U70S ACROSS SW. NOT QUITE TO
RECORD LVLS THOUGH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BLO FOR TDYS RECORDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES E AS CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE W. XPCT CLDS
TO INCRS AFTR MIDNIGHT W-E. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE SREF WRT THE FROPA.
MSTR FIELDS INDCT A FEW SHWRS PSBL OVR XTREME WRN CNTYS AFTR 09Z TONITE
(BASICALLY ON A LKU-FVX LINE). AIRMASS BASICALLY TO DRY FRTHR E TO SPRT
ANY PCPN. ANTHR MILD NITE AHEAD WITH LOW IN THE 50S.
UPR TROF OVR GT LAKES RGN AMPLIFYS ON SAT. TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS
THE RGN THRU OUT THE DAY. LTST DATA SPRTS BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
(SHWRS) WILL LIFT NE SATACROSS WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF FA WITH LTL IN THE
WAY OF SPRT ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS. THUS... HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLGHT
CHC ACROSS THE SERN SCTNS SAT AFTRN. ELSEWHERE KEPT A 30 POP FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY VRY LIMITED WITH FROPA. HOWEVER...DUE TO BNDRY COMING THRU
IN MID AFTRN...CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SAT AFTRN FROM NRN
NECK ON NE ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...BUT WILL OUT OF FCST ATTM AS
CHC IS VRY LOW. HIGHS U60S N TO L-M70S S.
FRNT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT EVE. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS LWR MD
ERN SHORE AREA THRU EVE HRS AS MSTR LINGERS FOR A FEW HRS. SKIES THEN
BECOME MAINLY CLR SAT NITE AND COOLER. TMPS DROP INTO THE 40S TO L50S.
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY DESPITE PLNTY OF SUN. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY ERY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S...U50S TO L60S MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CIGS (ESPLY) WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNG OVR ERN
TAF SITES...AS LO PRES OFF THE VA CST SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE E. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN...AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
OVR THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE WKND
INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRNT SAT WITH A
SML CHC OF SHRAS. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE FOR THE CSTL WTRS FOR TDY INTO TNGT...AS
SEAS STAY UP UNTIL LO PRES OFF THE CST MOVES FARTHER AWAY TO THE E.
OTHRWISE...COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE REGION SAT...BUT WNDS AND
SEAS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE
AREA FOR SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/7:
RIC...79 IN 1978
ORF...78 IN 1975
SBY...78 IN 1938
ECG...81 IN 1986
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KRNK 070450
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STILL SEEING SOME PERIODIC WRAP AROUND SCT/BKN AC/STRATO-CU OUT
EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW OFFSHORE OTRW CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. EXPECT RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL FINALLY
GIVE ALL MOISTURE A BOOT EAST LATE SO MAINTAINING OVERALL CLEAR
FORECAST TONIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PATCHY
SCENARIO AS SUGGESTED VIA 00Z RAOB STABILITY VALUES. THIS LOOKS
MORE SO ALONG THE THE GREENBRIER AND UPPER JAMES RIVERS. ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH DEWPOINTS UP SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST PER SOME CLOUDS AND NE
FLOW...RAISED LOWS A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST LAV MOS OUT
THERE. OTRW APPEARS RANGE FROM 30S IN THE VALLEYS TO 40S ELSW ON
TRACK SO ONLY MAKING SMALL TWEAKS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPPER RIDGE BEGINS WEAKENING FRIDAY AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND
OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE
FRIDAY WITH WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE BASE OF
THE TROF...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. AS IS
CRNTLY THE CASE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND
AS THEY CROSS THE AREA TMRW NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO
THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY...BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE FCST AREA CAN
EXPECT FULL SUN AND VERY MILD TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WENT JUST A
LITTLE WARMER THAN MAV FOR TMRW BUT JUST UNDER RECORD HIGHS. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR TMRWS RECORD HIGHS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
THRU WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SCTD SHOWERS AND
THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SPINS THRU THE BASE OF
THE TROF...BUT BY MIDDAY SATURDAY CONDITIONS SHUD BE IMPROVING
RAPIDLY. COLDER AIR WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE UPPR LOW PULLING OUT QUICKLY INTO SE CANADA AND HEIGHTS
FALLING ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -2 TO -6 RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTR MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES DURING
THE PERIOD...SOME SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST FOR THAT REGION. HAVE BUMPED THOSE UP A BIT IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT VERY LITTLE ACCUMS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT GUSTY BEHIND THE FRNT BUT NOT CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
DUE TO SMALL PRESSURE RISES AND RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN DIFFERENT CAMPS IN RESPECT TO THE NRN/SRN STREAM
NEXT WEEK...AND SPEED. ATTM...CONSENSUS IS TO BLEND THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z GFS SOLUTION. SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE PUSHES
OVERHEAD. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SW
CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN PUSHING INTO THE NC
MTNS/SW VA MOUNTAIN EMPIRE BY DAWN TUESDAY. LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS THE HIGH SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AT A WEDGE SETUP IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. LOOK FOR CHANCES
OF RAIN TO BE THE GREATEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...WE SEE A MILLER B SCENARIO AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE VA CAPES AND THE OTHER LOW WEAKENS OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU BY WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COOL WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A
WEDGE...WITH LOW DIURNAL SWINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LWB. AROUND 08Z FRIDAY MORNING...LWB SHOULD HAVE
VLIFR CONDITIONS FROM RIVER FOG. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPOACHING COLD FRONT BUT ANY CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT AND MVFR SHWRS/CIGS ESPCLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN SITES. SINCE BUFKIT RAOBS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE STRONGER BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ADDING IN
SHRA MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB BEFORE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES EAST WHILE LEAVING SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS WEST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CONDITIONS IN -RA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY FRIDAY
BLUEFIELD 74/1975 70/2004
BLACKSBURG 79/1961 76/1975
ROANOKE 79/2005 78/1945
LYNCHBURG 78/1978 77/1965
DANVILLE 81/2003 83/1975
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RCS
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070255
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
955 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY ACCELERATING
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LO PRES OFFSHR WL BEGIN TO MV E OVRNGT. LLVL CLDS RMNG WDSPRD AS
FAR W AS I95...EVEN LGT RA/DZ CONTG ON PORTIONS OF ERN SHR...ESP
LWR SE MD. KPG POPS 40-60% INVOF LWR MD ERN SHR...EVEN 20-30% FOR
MOST XTRM E LCTNS IN FA INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. OTRW...CLDNS WL RMN
SLO TO BRK/SHIFT E. ADDTNLLY...SFC DWPTS WL RMN SLO TO LWR THROUGH
THE OVRNGT HRS...AS WNDSPDS GRDLY LWR...ESP INLAND...PTCHY FG PSBL.
NUDGED LO TEMPS UP A CPL DEGS F BASED ON TRENDS (BOTH T/TD).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRI: FRI LOOKS RTHR WRM AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN AHEAD OF APPRCHG
TROF. WL LKLY HV TO DEAL WITH SOME LEFTOVER CLDS OVER THE
EAST...BUT SHUD HV MSNY CONDITIONS ALL ZNS BY ERY TO MID AFTN.
THKNS SCHEMES POINTING TWDS M-UPR 70S OVER INLAND SXNS. TEMPS MORE
CHALLENGING EAST...AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON HOW QUICKLY CLDS MIX
OUT. ACCEPTED BLENDED MOS NUMBERS OVER THIS AREA FOR NOW...WHICH
YIELDS M/U 60S OVER THE NE.
FRI NITE/SAT: UPR RIDGE DEPARTS OFFSHORE FRI NITE AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE UPR GRT LAKES. THIS FEATURE PUSHES A
CDFRT THRU THE RGN SAT AFTRN AS THE UPR LOW RIDES NORTHWARD ACROSS
SERN CANADA. CLIMO WOULD DICTATE THAT UPR LOWS TRACKING THIS FAR
NORTH OF CWA FREQUENTLY LEAVE LTL/NO PCPN IN ITS WAKE ACROSS OUR
CWA...AND 12Z 6NOV MODELS SEEM TO BE CORROBORATING THIS.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED TO BE A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR NOW. WENT
WITH LOW CHC POPS NORTH...SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE S/SE. ALSO
CONTINUED TO TREND FRONTAL PASSAGE BACKWARDS IN TIME A BIT...WITH
NO POPS BEFORE ERY SAT MORNING OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND AFTER
SUNRISE SAT INTO THE REST OF THE AREA. TMPS REMAIN RTHR MILD
DESPITE CLDS AND CHC FOR PCPN. HIGHS M60S N TO L70S S.
SUNDAY: SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY POST FROPA. FLOW
BECOMES GRADUALLY ZONAL SUNDAY INTO ERY NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW
DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST NEAR 37.3N 73.5W (AS OF 00Z) IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER ERN VA AND SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST. MVFR WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT SBY AND ORF WITH MAINLY
MVFR AT PHF AND ECG. RIC IS CURRENTLY VFR WITH A 5K FOOT CEILING.
THE DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACCORDING TO BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES FRI
MORNING. AT THIS TIME..IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR FOR A TIME...MOST LIKELY AT
RIC...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE. ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MORNING BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY EARLY FRI AFTN EXCEPT SBY.
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE LOW SLOWLY
RISES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRI UNDER A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REGION SAT WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
AND SCT PCPN POSSIBLE. VFR CONDS RETURN FOR SUN AND MON...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED 75 NM OFF PARRAMORE ISLAND (VA EASTERN SHORE)
PERSISTING FOR THE TIME BEING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH A LITTLE WEAKENING WHICH HAS BEEN
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM
TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND CHES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR CSTL WTRS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES. REPLACED WITH SCA FLAGS (STILL EXPECT 30 KT
GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING) UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SEAS. SCA
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SEAS. SYSTEM FINALLY LOSES ITS INFLUENCE ON
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER DRIFTING. SCA FLAGS FOR
CURRITUCK SOUND STILL UNTIL 7PM (NEXT SHIFT WILL MONITOR/POSSIBLY
EXTEND THESE)...CHES BAY UNTIL 1 AM.
HI PRES SLIDES ACRS THE WATERS FRI AFTN/EVNG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LOW
WINDS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRNT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THRU SAT EVNG/NGHT. HI PRES WILL RETURN FOR SUN
THRU TUE. HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT TO OUR NORTH ON TUE...BRINGING
ONSHORE FLOW TUE NGHT THRU WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BAJ
000
FXUS61 KLWX 070140 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
840 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AWAY
FROM OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
WATERS SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY IN
THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT LYR OF MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW TO
PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND METAR PLOTS SHOW THAT STATIONS
THAT REPORTED LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLIER HAVE ENDED. ANDREWS AFB AND DCA
RADARS SHOW VERY LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS SRN MD WHICH COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE.
ANY SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL END BY MIDNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THIS SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ALTHOUGH NOT BUYING IN
THE DENSE FOG SCENARIO THAT THE LAMP AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE
SUGGESTING. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE ANOTHER REPEAT.
WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY FOG TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
TOO...BUT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE APPARENT AND THE SKY MAY HAVE A PERIOD
OF MOSTLY SUNNY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE HIGH MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE/FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. MORE
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...LIKELY REACHING 70
DEGREES OR ABOVE FOR MOST PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE...WITH A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH
OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MID WEST MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION STARTING IN THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS COMING IN DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. POPS
ARE STILL IN THE HIGH CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY CATEGORY FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BARELY CHANCE ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...FINALLY OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TAKES OVER BY TUESDAY. MODELS
INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
MOVING NORTHEAST MID WEEK. PER THE GFS...THE MOISTURE FEED AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCE CONTINUES FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF HAS A
FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF US TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BUT A SECOND STRONGER SURGE MAKING IT TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WENT
WITH HPC POPS WHICH IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN MOSGUIDE NUMBERS...WITH
ONLY 30 POP VERSUS 40 TO 50 POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY LOWER
INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
ACROSS THE CWA. IFR CIGS WOULD LIKELY FORM FIRST AT THE HUBS...AND
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. ON THE FLIPSIDE...AT
KMRB/KCHO...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED FOR VSBYS TO LOWER FIRST AND
FASTER BEFORE IFR CIGS SETTLED IN. REGARDLESS...TERMINALS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN IFR CIG/VSBY EVENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND
SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT
BETWEEN 13-15Z ON FRIDAY.
MVFR TO NEAR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS.
UNCERTAINTY COMES IN MID WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGING LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CANCELLED EARLY. WINDS NOW BELOW SCA AND A DECREASING TREND IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS...SO NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSA
PRODUCTS...PELOQUIN/SAR
000
FXUS61 KRNK 070133
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
833 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SHOWERS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STILL SEEING SOME PERIODIC WRAP AROUND SCT/BKN AC/STRATO-CU OUT
EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW OFFSHORE OTRW CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. EXPECT RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL FINALLY
GIVE ALL MOISTURE A BOOT EAST LATE SO MAINTAINING OVERALL CLEAR
FORECAST TONIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PATCHY
SCENARIO AS SUGGESTED VIA 00Z RAOB STABILITY VALUES. THIS LOOKS
MORE SO ALONG THE THE GREENBRIER AND UPPER JAMES RIVERS. ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH DEWPOINTS UP SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST PER SOME CLOUDS AND NE
FLOW...RAISED LOWS A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST LAV MOS OUT
THERE. OTRW APPEARS RANGE FROM 30S IN THE VALLEYS TO 40S ELSW ON
TRACK SO ONLY MAKING SMALL TWEAKS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPPER RIDGE BEGINS WEAKENING FRIDAY AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND
OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE
FRIDAY WITH WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE BASE OF
THE TROF...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. AS IS
CRNTLY THE CASE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND
AS THEY CROSS THE AREA TMRW NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO
THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY...BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE FCST AREA CAN
EXPECT FULL SUN AND VERY MILD TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WENT JUST A
LITTLE WARMER THAN MAV FOR TMRW BUT JUST UNDER RECORD HIGHS. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR TMRWS RECORD HIGHS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
THRU WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SCTD SHOWERS AND
THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SPINS THRU THE BASE OF
THE TROF...BUT BY MIDDAY SATURDAY CONDITIONS SHUD BE IMPROVING
RAPIDLY. COLDER AIR WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE UPPR LOW PULLING OUT QUICKLY INTO SE CANADA AND HEIGHTS
FALLING ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -2 TO -6 RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTR MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES DURING
THE PERIOD...SOME SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST FOR THAT REGION. HAVE BUMPED THOSE UP A BIT IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT VERY LITTLE ACCUMS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT GUSTY BEHIND THE FRNT BUT NOT CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
DUE TO SMALL PRESSURE RISES AND RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN DIFFERENT CAMPS IN RESPECT TO THE NRN/SRN STREAM
NEXT WEEK...AND SPEED. ATTM...CONSENSUS IS TO BLEND THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z GFS SOLUTION. SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE PUSHES
OVERHEAD. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SW
CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN PUSHING INTO THE NC
MTNS/SW VA MOUNTAIN EMPIRE BY DAWN TUESDAY. LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS THE HIGH SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AT A WEDGE SETUP IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. LOOK FOR CHANCES
OF RAIN TO BE THE GREATEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...WE SEE A MILLER B SCENARIO AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE VA CAPES AND THE OTHER LOW WEAKENS OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU BY WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COOL WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A
WEDGE...WITH LOW DIURNAL SWINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LWB. AROUND 08Z FRIDAY...LWB SHOULD HAVE VLIFR
CONDITIONS FROM RIVER FOG. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF AROUND 14Z
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPOACHING COLD FRONT BUT ANY CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT AND MVFR SHWRS/CIGS. SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY PICK UP TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING
MVFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY FRIDAY
BLUEFIELD 74/1975 70/2004
BLACKSBURG 79/1961 76/1975
ROANOKE 79/2005 78/1945
LYNCHBURG 78/1978 77/1965
DANVILLE 81/2003 83/1975
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/AMS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RCS
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070104
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
804 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY
ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AND STILL
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. FARTHER
WEST...UPR LVL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE OH/TN VLYS ALLOWING FOR
QUICK CLEARING JUST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...A POTENT
UPR LVL LOW SPINNING OVER THE UPPR/MIDDLE MO VLY WAS PUSHING A
STRONG COLD FRONT WEST INTO THE MS VLY AT MIDDAY TDA.
BACK EDGE OF CLDS IN ASSN WITH THIS FEATURE ACCOUNTING FOR SOME
RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WX ACRS THE CWA. ROUGHLY FROM
KFVX TO KRZZ...AND DOWN TO EAST CENTRAL NC COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
ORIENTATION ALLOWING FOR CLRING SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S
OVER THE FAR SW (GENLY SW OF I-85)...WITH CLDY SKIES AND L/M 60S
OVER THE SBY AREA.
EVEN AS LOW TO THE EAST EXITS THE REGION...PLENTY OF REMNANT LLVL
MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. HV HELD ON TO DZ/PATCHY
FOG WORDING OVER THE EAST TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. OVER WESTERN
SXNS...GRADUAL W TO E CLEARING CONTINUES AS UPR RIDGING PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. PRES GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY INLAND AS LOW PULLS
AWAY...AND THIS SHUD ALLOW WNDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT OVER
INLAND SXNS. THIS...ALONG WITH MOIST GRND WL LKLY MAKING FOR AREAS OF
FOG AFTER 06Z TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRI: FRI LOOKS RTHR WRM AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN AHEAD OF APPRCHG
TROF. WL LKLY HV TO DEAL WITH SOME LEFTOVER CLDS OVER THE
EAST...BUT SHUD HV MSNY CONDITIONS ALL ZNS BY ERY TO MID AFTN.
THKNS SCHEMES POINTING TWDS M-UPR 70S OVER INLAND SXNS. TEMPS MORE
CHALLENGING EAST...AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON HOW QUICKLY CLDS MIX
OUT. ACCEPTED BLENDED MOS NUMBERS OVER THIS AREA FOR NOW...WHICH
YIELDS M/U 60S OVER THE NE.
FRI NITE/SAT: UPR RIDGE DEPARTS OFFSHORE FRI NITE AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE UPR GRT LAKES. THIS FEATURE PUSHES A
CDFRT THRU THE RGN SAT AFTRN AS THE UPR LOW RIDES NORTHWARD ACROSS
SERN CANADA. CLIMO WOULD DICTATE THAT UPR LOWS TRACKING THIS FAR
NORTH OF CWA FREQUENTLY LEAVE LTL/NO PCPN IN ITS WAKE ACROSS OUR
CWA...AND 12Z 6NOV MODELS SEEM TO BE CORROBORATING THIS.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED TO BE A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR NOW. WENT
WITH LOW CHC POPS NORTH...SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE S/SE. ALSO
CONTINUED TO TREND FRONTAL PASSAGE BACKWARDS IN TIME A BIT...WITH
NO POPS BEFORE ERY SAT MORNING OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND AFTER
SUNRISE SAT INTO THE REST OF THE AREA. TMPS REMAIN RTHR MILD
DESPITE CLDS AND CHC FOR PCPN. HIGHS M60S N TO L70S S.
SUNDAY: SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY POST FROPA. FLOW
BECOMES GRADUALLY ZONAL SUNDAY INTO ERY NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW
DRIFTS INTO ATL CANADA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW (FLAT UPPER RIDGING) ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON MON. FCST HIGH TEMPS MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST.
ON TUE...AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN NY...IN TYPICAL FASHION
CAD/RIDGE WEDGE DEVELOPS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE MNTNS AS PER
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU INVOLVE
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN DEVELOP IN THE ENSUING
WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF AT 12Z HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOVERNING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE INITIAL (NRN STREAM) MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OH VLY REGIONS TUE INTO WED. AS IT DOES...RATHER NARROW RIBBON OF
WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HIGH STATIC STABILITY REMAINS AT LOW
LEVELS AS MSTR INCREASES WITH THE WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE MOIST...EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TENDS TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP (DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY) IN CAD EVENTS.
BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSCD SFC LOW REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM (I.E. SRN PLAINS/MS
VLY). CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ALBEIT WITH A MORE SE LLVL FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION
IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 30-40% POPS THROUGH THU...AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HINT AT PERIODIC WAVES OF 850-700 MB LAYER WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EVEN AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST NEAR 37.3N 73.5W (AS OF 00Z) IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER ERN VA AND SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST. MVFR WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT SBY AND ORF WITH MAINLY
MVFR AT PHF AND ECG. RIC IS CURRENTLY VFR WITH A 5K FOOT CEILING.
THE DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACCORDING TO BUFR SOUNDINGS. THIS IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES FRI
MORNING. AT THIS TIME..IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR FOR A TIME...MOST LIKELY AT
RIC...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE. ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MORNING BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY EARLY FRI AFTN EXCEPT SBY.
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE LOW SLOWLY
RISES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRI UNDER A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REGION SAT WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
AND SCT PCPN POSSIBLE. VFR CONDS RETURN FOR SUN AND MON...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED 75 NM OFF PARRAMORE ISLAND (VA EASTERN SHORE)
PERSISTING FOR THE TIME BEING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH A LITTLE WEAKENING WHICH HAS BEEN
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM
TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND CHES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR CSTL WTRS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES. REPLACED WITH SCA FLAGS (STILL EXPECT 30 KT
GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING) UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SEAS. SCA
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SEAS. SYSTEM FINALLY LOSES ITS INFLUENCE ON
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER DRIFTING. SCA FLAGS FOR
CURRITUCK SOUND STILL UNTIL 7PM (NEXT SHIFT WILL MONITOR/POSSIBLY
EXTEND THESE)...CHES BAY UNTIL 1 AM.
HI PRES SLIDES ACRS THE WATERS FRI AFTN/EVNG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LOW
WINDS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRNT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THRU SAT EVNG/NGHT. HI PRES WILL RETURN FOR SUN
THRU TUE. HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT TO OUR NORTH ON TUE...BRINGING
ONSHORE FLOW TUE NGHT THRU WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BAJ
000
FXUS61 KRNK 062305
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
605 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SHOWERS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AND MORE SO
ALONG THE GREENBRIER RIVER. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TODAY`S WEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM A COASTAL LOW HAS BROUGHT DEW
POINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 30 TO MID 40S. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S RANGE...CLOSE TO MAV. WITH
AN EVENING BREEZE AND THIS AFTERNOON`S WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT
EVENING TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD THEN THEY SHOULD DROP RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER 10PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPPER RIDGE BEGINS WEAKENING FRIDAY AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND
OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE
FRIDAY WITH WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE BASE OF
THE TROF...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. AS IS
CRNTLY THE CASE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND
AS THEY CROSS THE AREA TMRW NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO
THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY...BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE FCST AREA CAN
EXPECT FULL SUN AND VERY MILD TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WENT JUST A
LITTLE WARMER THAN MAV FOR TMRW BUT JUST UNDER RECORD HIGHS. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR TMRWS RECORD HIGHS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
THRU WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SCTD SHOWERS AND
THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SPINS THRU THE BASE OF
THE TROF...BUT BY MIDDAY SATURDAY CONDITIONS SHUD BE IMPROVING
RAPIDLY. COLDER AIR WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE UPPR LOW PULLING OUT QUICKLY INTO SE CANADA AND HEIGHTS
FALLING ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -2 TO -6 RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTR MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES DURING
THE PERIOD...SOME SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST FOR THAT REGION. HAVE BUMPED THOSE UP A BIT IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT VERY LITTLE ACCUMS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT GUSTY BEHIND THE FRNT BUT NOT CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
DUE TO SMALL PRESSURE RISES AND RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN DIFFERENT CAMPS IN RESPECT TO THE NRN/SRN STREAM
NEXT WEEK...AND SPEED. ATTM...CONSENSUS IS TO BLEND THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z GFS SOLUTION. SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE PUSHES
OVERHEAD. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SW
CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN PUSHING INTO THE NC
MTNS/SW VA MOUNTAIN EMPIRE BY DAWN TUESDAY. LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS THE HIGH SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AT A WEDGE SETUP IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. LOOK FOR CHANCES
OF RAIN TO BE THE GREATEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...WE SEE A MILLER B SCENARIO AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE VA CAPES AND THE OTHER LOW WEAKENS OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU BY WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COOL WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A
WEDGE...WITH LOW DIURNAL SWINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LWB. AROUND 08Z FRIDAY...LWB SHOULD HAVE VLIFR
CONDITIONS FROM RIVER FOG. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF AROUND 14Z
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPOACHING COLD FRONT BUT ANY CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT AND MVFR SHWRS/CIGS. SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY PICK UP TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING
MVFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY FRIDAY
BLUEFIELD 74/1975 70/2004
BLACKSBURG 79/1961 76/1975
ROANOKE 79/2005 78/1945
LYNCHBURG 78/1978 77/1965
DANVILLE 81/2003 83/1975
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RCS
CLIMATE...
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