Office: CHS

FXUS62 KCHS 241411
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1011 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN TO THE N TODAY...AS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK PRES PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING...CREATING AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN ADVECTING
COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE SWATH OF DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS
BECOME TRAPPED WITHIN THE LOWEST LAYERS THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
STRATUS/STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE AND IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER THROUGH THE MORNING OVER LAND
HOWEVER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS. SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS LAND AREAS. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE A TREND OF IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFFSHORE. THE PREVIOUS OUTLIER GFS NOW AGREES WITH OTHER
MODELS BY DEPICTING A CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN IN THE DETAILS OF
THE TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM
CONTINUING TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEEPENING THE LOW PRESSURE.

EVEN THOUGH VARIATIONS REMAIN IN THE DETAILS OF THE LOW INTENSIFICATION
AND PLACEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...ALL MODELS MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY THAT WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE.

THE SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THE LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT A RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS
AND NAM AGREE IN BRINGING THE FIRST RAIN CHANCES INTO BERKELEY AND
CHARLESTON COUNTIES TONIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW SYSTEM
CROSSING ONSHORE THURSDAY. NAM SHOWS THE MOST RAPID AND NORTHERN
PROGRESSION...INDICATING THE LOW CROSSING THE COAST NEAR WILMINGTON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS THE SOUTHERN-MOST AND SLOWEST
SOLUTION...BRINGING A WEAKER LOW SYSTEM ONSHORE IN NORTHERN
CHARLESTON COUNTY AS LATE AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM...THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND DURATION OF
RAIN COULD BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CENTER.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING POP SCHEME FOR THURSDAY. MAINTAINED A
DISTINCT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT FOR RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES.

THE COMBINATION OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND A COLD AIR MASS WILL
SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY AREA...WHILE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES WILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INLAND AND DISSIPATE INTO A
WEAK TROUGH ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS
AND RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. HAVE INDICATED A
RANGE IN POPS FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES TO DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER FOR FRIDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE PERSISTENT IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS SLOWER TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...BOTH
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY. HAVE THUS DECREASED
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY SATURDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER 80S
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER
POTENTIAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND ALL AREAS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT SHOULD SCATTER
OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS WITH BETTER
MIXING AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 24-28 KT AT
TIMES AT EITHER TERMINAL FROM MID MORNING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS/CONSOLIDATES OVER THE GULF STREAM...
AND WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COAST...THE GRADIENT WILL
BECOME EVEN TIGHTER AS SHOWN BY A PERSISTENT NAM FORECAST OF 50-60
KT OF WINDS AT 925 MB BY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. MIXING PROFILES WILL BE BEST OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATERS AND
WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN HOW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE OVERNIGHT AROUND THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT. WE HAVE FORECAST SOME
OF THE HIGHER GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20 KT RANGE FOR NOW. WINDS AT
KSAV WILL NOT BE AS STRONG DUE TO LESS PRES PACKING BUT SOME GUSTS
WILL STILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 06Z/25.

SOME MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND RAIN MAY BE NEARING KCHS TOWARD
08Z-12Z/25...BUT WE WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO INTRO ONCE TIMING
BECOMES MORE CONCRETE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KCHS ON THU...THEN AT BOTH TERMS THU NIGHT
INTO LATE MORNING ON FRI AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER A
BUILDING INVERSION LAYER. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE OF
CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WE WILL KEEP WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON...AND EXCELLENT MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY/MIXING WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WE USED DEEPENING TRENDS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z NAM BUT NOT QUITE AS
EMPHATIC WITH TIMING CLOSER TO THE GFS WHICH IS A SLOWER AND MORE
BELIEVABLE SOLUTION. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE ALSO REASONABLE BUT A BIT
FURTHER S PUSHING THE DEEP LOW ONSHORE NEAR MYRTLE BEACH EARLY FRI.

AT LEAST GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD COMMENCE ON CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS EARLY...UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING
ON THE HARBOR...IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...MAINTAINED ONGOING GALE WARNINGS FOR OTHER COASTAL ZONES
WITHOUT CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY. GALES OVER THE WATERS MAY EBB FOR A
WHILE LATER TODAY BUT COME BACK WITH A VENGEANCE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THU. WILL ASSESS DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
12Z GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF A STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
AMZ350. HOWEVER...AS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING...APPEARED MOST LIKELY
THAT STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD REMAIN BEYOND THE 20 NM BENCHMARK FOR
THIS EVENT.

EXPECT VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

TO START SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS MAY
PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA
WATERS AND PERHAPS NEAR GRAYS REEF. THEN...AS INLAND LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS...EXPECT A A TRANSITION TO MORE TRANQUIL REGIME...FEATURING
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...FOR THE BALANCE THIS WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT A PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE
WIND TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SWELLS AND A CONTINUED STRONG LONG SHORE
CURRENT...THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ALL THREE
DAYS. WE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.

LAKE WINDS...INCREASING PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS IMPACTING LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KT TODAY...AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 25 TO 30 KT TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH AS HIGH AS 3 FEET OVER
THE OPEN LAKE WATERS AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE MOULTRIE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GIVEN IMPRESSIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES ON CHARLESTON HARBOR AND AT FORT
PULASKI WEDNESDAY MORNING...LATE AFTERNOON EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
PROJECTIONS OF 9.4 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT FORT PULASKI AND
7.7 FT MLLW ON CHARLESTON HARBOR APPEAR REASONABLE...AND COULD EVEN
BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...EXPANDED THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...ACROSS GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES.

ELEVATED TIDES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR LATER HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

MEANWHILE...THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL ALSO LIMIT BREAKERS IN THE SURF
ZONE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TRENDS/12Z GUIDANCE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY OCCURS WHEN
BREAKERS REACH 5 FEET OR MORE IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ045.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ330-350-352-354-
     374.

&&

$$







Office: CAE

FXUS62 KCAE 241124
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
722 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND WEAKEN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST STRENGTHENS. THE
RESULTING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT AT 11 AM THIS MORNING
AS MAV GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WINDS WITHIN LWA CRITERIA. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE ON THE SAME PAGE BUT STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER TODAY.

NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOWING COASTAL LOW MOVING ONSHORE NEAR ILM BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL USE A BIT OF A BLEND OF THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND. GIVEN MAV WIND GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY...LWA MAY BE
NEEDED. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SREF GUIDANCE. WITH
CLOUDS...PRECIP AND GOOD CAA...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE IN MANY PLACES THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SC COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS
INDICATING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT TO
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY
AND THEN BECOMING DRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS ALSO HINTING AT
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONT FROM THE NW. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO GMOS NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
MOVES WEST AND INTENSIFIES. RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE AS WELL AS RECENT
ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND WIND AT 2000 FEET 35-40 KNOTS. WILL INCLUDE LLWS
IN TAFS THROUGH 14Z, WHEN MIXING BEGINS AND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TONIGHT, THEREFORE NO FOG EXPECTED.

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT MADE VERY
LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW HIGH AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC SPREADING WEST. MAY SEE MID LEVEL OR HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS LOWERING ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY. MAY SEE SCT CLOUD BASES 4-5
THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$





Office: GSP

FXUS62 KGSP 241443
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REBUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE. BUMPED MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NC PIEDMONT.
ALSO...LOWERED THE DEWPOINTS/RH FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN UPSTATE/NE GA. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR DETAILS. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT GSO/FFC SHOWS WINDS AROUND 30KT IN THE 2000-5000FT
LAYER WHICH HAS BEGUN MIXING DOWN. WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT ALREADY
SHOWING UP IN THE METARS. THEREFORE...SO REASON TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVRY.

WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVE AS MIXING DIMINISHES. WITH MCLR
SKIES TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE L-M50S...WITH MAINLY 40S IN
THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE SHORT TERM
WX WL BE A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS.
GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE DETAILS ASSOC W/ THIS
SYSTEM. THE 00Z/24 NAM CONT TO BE THE WRN OUTLIER...WITH THE MOST
INTENSE SFC LOW OF THE GUIDANCE. IT WAS NOTED BY HPC THAT THE 250MB
JET AT MHX WAS UNDER-INITIALIZED BY 27 KTS ON THE 00Z/24 GFS (THE
NAM WAS 12 KTS UNDER). THE 00Z/24 NAM INITIAL DEPICTION OF THE SFC
LOW WAS ALSO WELL IN LINE WITH TRENDS IN SAT/OBS/RADAR. SO WITH ALL
THAT SAID...THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA. FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE...I STILL
FAVORED THE GFS DUE TO THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AND SUPPORT
FROM OTHER GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCR DURING THE DAY...WITH POPS
RAMPING UP FROM E TO W. THE PRES GRADIENT SHUD TIGHTEN ENUF TO ALLOW
FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...DESPITE NOT VERY DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS WL
BE WELL BLO NORMAL ACRS THE I-77 CORRIDOR DUE TO CLDS/PCPN
DEVELOPING BY MID AFTN. TO THE WEST...TEMPS SHUD REACH THE LWR 70S
OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WAVE OF
STRONG LLVL FORCING OVRNGT ACRS MOST OF OUR NC COUNTIES. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE POP KEEPS AFOREMENTIONED AREA AT LIKELY. ELSW...A SOLID CHC
OF -RA...WITH LOWEST POP ACRS NE GA COUNTIES. TEMPS WL TAKE A
SOMEWHAT NON-DIURNAL TREND OVRNGT...AS CLDS/PCPN KEEP TEMPS NR
STEADY. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...WITH LWR 70S IN THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY. I WENT WITH HPC QPF FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD (GENERALLY LT 0.5"...EXCEPT 0.5"-1" IN NC E OF THE
BROAD RVR VLY).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...I MADE LTL CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED...AS
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THRU THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE OVERALL
HAS TRENDED SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. POPS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
S TO N SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY...AS LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE NE.
LLVL FLOW BCMS WLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM...RESULTING
IN A DRYING AND SLGT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST FEW TO SCT SC TODAY...MAINLY MTNS AND ALONG ESCARPMENT. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW AND
INLAND RIDGE INCREASES. EXPECT NE GUSTS OF 25KTS AND PSBLY HIGHER
THIS AFTN...BEFORE WINDS TAPER OFF WITH COOLING THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL THU INTO SAT AS MOISTURE FROM
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE E. COASTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF TO THE N THIS WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES OVER THER WESTERN UPSTATE AND NE GA
THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH
OCNL GUSTS OVER 30 MPH PSBL. RH IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 25% FOR
1-2 HOURS ACROSS NE GA AND WESTERN UPSTATE WHICH IS SHY OF RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-
     028-029.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG
FIRE WEATHER...LG