Office: LKN

FXUS65 KLKN 240839
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
139 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE SILVER STATE WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE-NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND CRISP COOL
NIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND...DRAWING UP
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS
MORNING VS. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CLEAR SKIES AS WELL THIS MORNING
UNDER WEAK PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. IR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED APEX OF
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR CA/NV BORDER WITH CLOUDS SKIRTING LKN CWA
NORTHERN BORDERS.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH FEW CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE KEPT
IN CHECK THROUGH THURSDAY BY A SHORT WAVE LOW NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OFFSHORE COASTAL REGION. WESTERLY FLOW
TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AS
THE THIS LOW FEATURE MOVES ONSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AS AN
OPEN WAVE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN SOME AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS....MAINLY NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
GET A BOOST OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 30S AGAIN TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATION AND A MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BAND OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...THIS WILL PERHAPS KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES VS. TODAY. HOWEVER ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS. LW

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME
INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE WEST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NV WILL TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA SUNDAY AND SPREADING NORTH AND WEST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PW'S ONLY COMING UP TO AROUND 0.60 INCHES SO
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE REAL IMPRESSIVE AND FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RUBIES WITH SILENT
POPS FURTHER WEST. WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO AND SEE IF
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HINTING
AT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. JMG
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
EASTERN OREGON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING
AND BECOME VARIABLE AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. JMG
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...THE
FIRE DISTRICT WILL BE SUBJECTED TO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY...THAT
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE-
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODERATE TO POOR OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ZONE 451 THIS AFTERNOON AND THE ENTIRE FIRE DISTRICT WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. GUSTS WILL BE
NEAR 30 MPH IN SOME LOCALES...HOWEVER NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED FOR WIND/RH ISSUES AT THIS TIME. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RE-CENTER OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA THIS WEEKEND WHILE STRENGTHENING...
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE INJECTED INTO EASTERN NEVADA TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
PROPOSED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ZONE 455 AND EASTERN
ZONE 452. LW &&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$




Office: VEF

FXUS65 KVEF 241001
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RIDGE TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY AND THURSDAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACNW COAST ON THURSDAY HOWEVER
TO PUSH RIDGE A BIT FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE CWA WHICH THEN PROVIDES THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ATTM
IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
NOT MUCH ELSE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFF THE CA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LOW TO EVENTUALLY WORK INLAND
AND DRAW UP SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE. STILL THINK THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND NOT ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RAMP UP SKY GRIDS. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO WORK TOWARD THE COAST. RIGHT NOW
THE MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WINDS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER CLOSER TOWARD NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EAST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON TO AROUND 8 KTS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS AND
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS. SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

JENSEN/GORELOW

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS





Office: REV

FXUS65 KREV 240920
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
139 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER AZ/NM. THIS WILL KEEP US
RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE WITH AN INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN...AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE TO THE WINDS WED/THU. NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT
STRONGER WITH WINDS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND...DIDN'T TAKE THE
WINDS ALL THE WAY UP TO WHAT THE NAM WAS SHOWING...BUT TRENDED THEM
IN THAT DIRECTION. GENERAL FEELING IS STILL THAT WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH ON WED/THU...REMAINING
JUST BELOW ANY RED FLAG OR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WIND PRONE AREAS.
THE STRONGEST 700MB WINDS WILL APPROACH 35 KTS NORTH OF RENO-TAHOE
...WHICH WILL BE WHERE THE STRONGEST VALLEY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LASTLY...RIDGE WINDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP AS WE SAW WINDS ON THE
SIERRA CREST GUSTING TO 40 MPH YESTERDAY. RIDGE WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW...SO UPDATED FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS TREND. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN BY THURSDAY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...STILL RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE DESERT VALLEYS TO MID 70S IN THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. BY FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH INDICATING A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PUMP UP THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF NICELY AS RIDGING MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE
TOWARD A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC BY END OF PERIOD WITH
UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC JET ARE ALSO ANOMALOUSLY STRONG. PROBABLY WILL SEE A WEAKER
AND SLOWER EVOLUTION WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME COOLING BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAISED TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY AND SLOWED
COOLING TREND TUESDAY TO REFLECT STRONGER INFLUENCE OF RIDGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH AND WE GENERALLY LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
TIMING OF MONDAY. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE GFS THAT
ARE ON BOARD AS ITS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION IS WAY TOO FAST TO EJECT
SYSTEM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIME OF YEAR AND LACK OF DYNAMICS SUGGEST ONLY
MODEST BUILDUPS FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA LATE SUNDAY. EJECTING SYSTEM
MONDAY AND ANOTHER DAY TO BUILD INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PUT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. DEPENDING ON NATURE OF TROUGH
AND AMOUNT OF SOUTHWEST VERSUS SOUTH FLOW...WEATHER MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED TUESDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE TUESDAY ALONE AND LET
THE SLIGHT MENTION MONDAY SERVE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOHMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TROUGH PASSING TO NORTH WILL HELP PICK UP AFTERNOON/EVENING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SFC WIND GUSTS GENERALLY TO 25KT WITH RIDGE
GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT. HOHMANN
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS AND RH WILL BE APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS WED AND THURS
AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT. 700MB
WIND ANOMALIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE DATA ARE NEAR 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD, ASSOC WITH TROF PASSAGE
OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE GUSTY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WINDS IN THE SIERRA ZONES AND FAR WESTERN NV...WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LIKELY NORTH OF US-50. RIDGE WINDS, ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT, WILL APPROACH 40 KTS FOR THE TAHOE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTY
PEAKS AS 700MB SPEED MAX MOVES THRU. THIS IS SEEN IN LOCAL WRF AND
NAM 30MB AGL WINDS.

HAVE FOLLOWED THE EXPERIMENTAL NAM-MOS GUIDANCE AT AAT/RNO FOR RH
TRENDS, AND WHILE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RH FROM WED TO
THURS IN NE CA AND NW NV, I FEEL IT WOULD NOT BE MUCH AND BOTH DAYS
WILL SEE LOW RH READINGS. OVERALL, WE WILL SIMPLY HEADLINE THE
CONDITIONS AND NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
OUR GRID DETECT_HAZARDS TOOL INDICATES ONLY 10% OF POINTS IN NVZ458
AND CAZ272 REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA, WHICH IS INSUFFICIENT TO POST
AN RFW...BUT CERTAINLY A COUPLE WIND PRONE RAWS SITES MIGHT HIT
CRITERIA. NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT. CS
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO






FXUS65 KREV 240921 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
220 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER AZ/NM. THIS WILL KEEP US
RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE WITH AN INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN...AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE TO THE WINDS WED/THU. NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT
STRONGER WITH WINDS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND...DIDN'T TAKE THE
WINDS ALL THE WAY UP TO WHAT THE NAM WAS SHOWING...BUT TRENDED THEM
IN THAT DIRECTION. GENERAL FEELING IS STILL THAT WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH ON WED/THU...REMAINING
JUST BELOW ANY RED FLAG OR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WIND PRONE AREAS.
THE STRONGEST 700MB WINDS WILL APPROACH 35 KTS NORTH OF RENO-TAHOE
...WHICH WILL BE WHERE THE STRONGEST VALLEY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LASTLY...RIDGE WINDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP AS WE SAW WINDS ON THE
SIERRA CREST GUSTING TO 40 MPH YESTERDAY. RIDGE WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW...SO UPDATED FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS TREND. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN BY THURSDAY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...STILL RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE DESERT VALLEYS TO MID 70S IN THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. BY FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH INDICATING A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PUMP UP THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF NICELY AS RIDGING MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE
TOWARD A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC BY END OF PERIOD WITH
UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC JET ARE ALSO ANOMALOUSLY STRONG. PROBABLY WILL SEE A WEAKER
AND SLOWER EVOLUTION WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME COOLING BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAISED TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY AND SLOWED
COOLING TREND TUESDAY TO REFLECT STRONGER INFLUENCE OF RIDGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH AND WE GENERALLY LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
TIMING OF MONDAY. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE GFS THAT
ARE ON BOARD AS ITS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION IS WAY TOO FAST TO EJECT
SYSTEM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIME OF YEAR AND LACK OF DYNAMICS SUGGEST ONLY
MODEST BUILDUPS FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA LATE SUNDAY. EJECTING SYSTEM
MONDAY AND ANOTHER DAY TO BUILD INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PUT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. DEPENDING ON NATURE OF TROUGH
AND AMOUNT OF SOUTHWEST VERSUS SOUTH FLOW...WEATHER MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED TUESDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE TUESDAY ALONE AND LET
THE SLIGHT MENTION MONDAY SERVE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOHMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TROUGH PASSING TO NORTH WILL HELP PICK UP AFTERNOON/EVENING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SFC WIND GUSTS GENERALLY TO 25KT WITH RIDGE
GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT. HOHMANN
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS AND RH WILL BE APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS WED AND THURS
AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT. 700MB
WIND ANOMALIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE DATA ARE NEAR 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD, ASSOC WITH TROF PASSAGE
OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE GUSTY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WINDS IN THE SIERRA ZONES AND FAR WESTERN NV...WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LIKELY NORTH OF US-50. RIDGE WINDS, ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT, WILL APPROACH 40 KTS FOR THE TAHOE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTY
PEAKS AS 700MB SPEED MAX MOVES THRU. THIS IS SEEN IN LOCAL WRF AND
NAM 30MB AGL WINDS.

HAVE FOLLOWED THE EXPERIMENTAL NAM-MOS GUIDANCE AT AAT/RNO FOR RH
TRENDS, AND WHILE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RH FROM WED TO
THURS IN NE CA AND NW NV, I FEEL IT WOULD NOT BE MUCH AND BOTH DAYS
WILL SEE LOW RH READINGS. OVERALL, WE WILL SIMPLY HEADLINE THE
CONDITIONS AND NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
OUR GRID DETECT_HAZARDS TOOL INDICATES ONLY 10% OF POINTS IN NVZ458
AND CAZ272 REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA, WHICH IS INSUFFICIENT TO POST
AN RFW...BUT CERTAINLY A COUPLE WIND PRONE RAWS SITES MIGHT HIT
CRITERIA. NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT. CS
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO