Office: BTV

FXUS61 KBTV 241124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CLOUDS TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM CANADA. UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US...THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH SHOULD BE MUCH
OF THE MORNING HOURS. SUNSHINE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARMING AIR MASS...DESPITE
LACK OF DEEPER MIXING...SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL HELP AREA
OF DRIER AIR ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE
LIMITED MIXING...FEEL ADDITION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT NO PRECIPITATION. DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA IN THE GRIDS. FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SUCH
THAT THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EAST WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REGION SET TO SEE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MDLS HAVE TRENDED TO THE WET SIDE AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SE U.S. WILL LIFT NNE OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG IN COPIOUS AMTS
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CWA. HIR QPF
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER E/SE VT. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LKS
REGION WILL SWING E ABOUT THE TIME THIS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THIS WILL HELP TO SHUNT PRECIP OUT TO SEA FASTER. WILL TREND HIR
POPS TO EASTERN ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. TROP SYSTEM WILL
GET CAUGHT IN FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STAY FAR ENOUGH OUT TO
SEA...KEEPING HEAVIER RAINFALL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BULK OF
MOISTURE WILL CLR THE CWA BY SUN NGT AS STEADY N WINDS PICK UP
OVER THE AREA...W/ HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING REGION. REGION WILL
SEE REPRIEVE ON MONDAY AS RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. MDLS DIFFER
SOME FOR SYSTEM LEADING INTO MIDWEEK. PLACEMENT OF RIDGE WILL SHUNT
SFC SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHERN NEW ENG. TIMING W/ THIS AND YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT POPS...BUT WILL KEEP IN LOW CHANCE FOR
-RW BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK. POSSIBILITY FOR POTENTIAL FEW
SW TO MIX IN AT HIR ELEVATION TUES NGT/WED MORN W/ REMAINING RW
BUT WITH CD AIR AT 850 PUSHING SOUTH ONLY TO MID CWA...CHANCES
WILL BE SLIM BUT MAY OCCUR AOA 2KFT. BUFKIT AT SLK ON GFS DOES
SHOW BRIEF MIX. ADJUSTED ALL TEMPS DOWN TO ACCOMMODATE EXPECTED CLD
COVER AND PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH CAA BY MONDAY WILL HAVE BLW
NORMAL EFFECTS FOR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR COND EXPECTED AT ALL FORECAST SITES
THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MVFR/IFR FG AT SLK THRU 14Z
WEDNESDAY. AFT 05Z THURSDAY FG MAY DEVELOP THAT MAY LWR VSBY TO
3-4SM OR LESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KSLK/KMPV. LGT/VAR WINDS BFR
14Z AND AFT 23Z...OTHERWISE AROUND 5-10KTS FROM THE SW IN N NY AND
SSE IN CVLY AND REST OF VT.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL
AT MPV/SLK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN FOG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THURSDAY. NEXT SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERN WL BE TIMING OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR TAF SITES LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. CRNT FCSTS SHOW BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ACRS SNE INTO SRN
VT...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT RUT/MPV...MVFR AT
BTV/PLB AND MAINLY VFR AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...RJS/JN






FXUS61 KBTV 241147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 747 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO GRIDS AND
ZONES TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGE NOW BUILDING IN AND THIS SHOULD START TO KEEP CLOUDS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARMING AIR MASS...DESPITE LACK OF DEEPER
MIXING...SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL HELP AREA
OF DRIER AIR ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE
LIMITED MIXING...FEEL ADDITION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT NO PRECIPITATION. DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA IN THE GRIDS. FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SUCH
THAT THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EAST WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REGION SET TO SEE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MDLS HAVE TRENDED TO THE WET SIDE AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SE U.S. WILL LIFT NNE OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG IN COPIOUS AMTS
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CWA. HIR QPF
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER E/SE VT. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LKS
REGION WILL SWING E ABOUT THE TIME THIS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THIS WILL HELP TO SHUNT PRECIP OUT TO SEA FASTER. WILL TREND HIR
POPS TO EASTERN ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. TROP SYSTEM WILL
GET CAUGHT IN FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STAY FAR ENOUGH OUT TO
SEA...KEEPING HEAVIER RAINFALL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BULK OF
MOISTURE WILL CLR THE CWA BY SUN NGT AS STEADY N WINDS PICK UP
OVER THE AREA...W/ HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING REGION. REGION WILL
SEE REPRIEVE ON MONDAY AS RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. MDLS DIFFER
SOME FOR SYSTEM LEADING INTO MIDWEEK. PLACEMENT OF RIDGE WILL SHUNT
SFC SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHERN NEW ENG. TIMING W/ THIS AND YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT POPS...BUT WILL KEEP IN LOW CHANCE FOR
-RW BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK. POSSIBILITY FOR POTENTIAL FEW
SW TO MIX IN AT HIR ELEVATION TUES NGT/WED MORN W/ REMAINING RW
BUT WITH CD AIR AT 850 PUSHING SOUTH ONLY TO MID CWA...CHANCES
WILL BE SLIM BUT MAY OCCUR AOA 2KFT. BUFKIT AT SLK ON GFS DOES
SHOW BRIEF MIX. ADJUSTED ALL TEMPS DOWN TO ACCOMMODATE EXPECTED CLD
COVER AND PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH CAA BY MONDAY WILL HAVE BLW
NORMAL EFFECTS FOR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR COND EXPECTED AT ALL FORECAST SITES
THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MVFR/IFR FG AT SLK THRU 14Z
WEDNESDAY. AFT 05Z THURSDAY FG MAY DEVELOP THAT MAY LWR VSBY TO
3-4SM OR LESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KSLK/KMPV. LGT/VAR WINDS BFR
14Z AND AFT 23Z...OTHERWISE AROUND 5-10KTS FROM THE SW IN N NY AND
SSE IN CVLY AND REST OF VT.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL
AT MPV/SLK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN FOG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THURSDAY. NEXT SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERN WL BE TIMING OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR TAF SITES LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. CRNT FCSTS SHOW BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ACRS SNE INTO SRN
VT...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT RUT/MPV...MVFR AT
BTV/PLB AND MAINLY VFR AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...RJS/JN