Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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000 FXUS63 KGRR 301612 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1215 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2008 LATEST UPDATE...LONG TERM AND AVIATION .SYNOPSIS...(342 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(342 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) FORECAST CONCERNS MAINLY DEAL WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. SREF/GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT UP HIGH WHERE THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CI PRESENT. LATEST SREF HINTS AT ISOLD POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS DRIVING THE FRONT REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. GIVEN THE DRY SOUNDINGS...WE/RE GOING TO LEAVE THE FCST DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE OUR TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY/S TEMPS. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM...(1215 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... LEADING TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE WX PATTERN WILL BECOME QUITE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEK. THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. IN FACT... GIVEN THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM... SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .MARINE...(342 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) WINDS WILL KICK UP ON THE LAKE TODAY FROM THE SOUTH. BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS NEAR GALES OVER THE NRN NSH AREAS. AS SUCH WE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR NRN NSH ZONES AND A SCA TO THE SOUTH TO COVER HIGH WAVES. && .AVIATION...(1215 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2008) VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z FRI. THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AT MKG DUE TO FLOW OFF LAKE MI... SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. SSW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT MKG THROUGH AROUND 04Z TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT. LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW TO WSW OVERNIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRI. && .HYDROLOGY...(342 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) NO HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO THE DRY WX REGIME. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM ST JOSEPH TO PENTWATER. && $$ SYNOPSIS: 93 SHORT TERM: 93 LONG TERM: LAURENS MARINE: 93 AVIATION: LAURENS HYDROLOGY: 93
