Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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000
FXUS63 KDTX 312334
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
734 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008
.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO NORTH. WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
IT WILL BE A SPOOKTACULAR EVENING FOR TRICK OR TREATING AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S THIS EVENING SOUTH AND
UPPER 50S NORTH. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS
AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WONT BE THAT SIGNIFICANT AS THE MAIN COLD POOL
SHUNTS EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO. EVEN WITH SOME AREAS OF
CIRRUS...OVERALL NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY
AS TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO. DESPITE THE PUSH
OF COLD AIR OVERNIGHT...GOOD INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN THE 50S) FOR MOST AREAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COOL EASTERLY BREEZE OFF OF LAKE
HURON WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LIMITED INTO THE 40S FOR THE THUMB.
COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ALLOW STEEP INVERSIONS TO FORM UNDER THE RIDGE.
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND
HUDSON BAY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SET
UP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AS IT IS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE
EVENING...AND THEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE UP TOWARDS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB...BUT HAVE
STILL ONLY CARRIED 30 POPS UP THAT WAY.
BY MONDAY GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT RIDGING WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST. THE WESTERN TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
FURTHER THROUGH MID-WEEK AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES...AND FINALLY
LIFT UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RIDGING AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP SURGE
TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH H925/850
TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOOKING SIMILAR TO TODAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ARE THEN LOOKING WET AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRAWS MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF UP AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS AS IF ALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO 7 FEET ON ALL OF SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 11 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KEC
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......DRC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
