Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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000
FXUS63 KAPX 010342
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1142 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 322 PM/
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT MOVING THRU NORTHERN MI TODAY...WITH
BRIEF COOLER WX ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE
SCT SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1134 PM/...TONIGHT
HIGH IS SETTLING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS PUSHING IN AT THE MOMENT AND IS KEEPING ANY LOW CLOUDS AT
BAY. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS WELL WITH THE HIGH SETTLING IN.
OTHERWISE, NO REAL CHANGES IN THE ZONES.
LUTZ
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 322 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND
HIGH PRESSURE FULLY IN CONTROL WILL ENSURE A GREAT DAY TO START THE
MONTH OF NOVEMBER. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACRS
NORTHEAST LOWER...MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE WITH
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...THOUGH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL CU
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT. AFTN
HIGHS QUITE SEASONABLE IN THE MID/UPR 40S LOOK GREAT WITH BASICALLY
NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION THRU THE DAY.
LAWRENCE
LATER PERIODS...A MEAN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
MEAN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT. A
SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER TOP OF THIS RIDGE...DIGGING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN LAKES TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS OUR MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE MID-RANGE OF THE FORECAST.
SAT NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES ALOFT...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT
REACHES SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE BIG BLUE
/H/ WILL MOVE FROM LAKE HURON TO UPSTATE NY. THIS WILL USHER IN
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW LATE...AND WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME WARM-
ADVECTION CIRRUS ARRIVE FROM THE NW. THIS WILL NOT BE SOON ENOUGH TO
PREVENT DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST. MINS SHOULD RANGE MAINLY FROM 20 TO 30...A
FEW OF THE BEACHES WILL BE WARMER...A FEW INLAND COLD SPOTS (PLN)
COULD REACH THE UPPER TEENS.
SUNDAY...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE...WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO MN. UPPER TROFFING WILL SCOOT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ARRIVING ON SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY. THE 900-800MB LAYER
WILL SEE THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL THETA-E ADVECTION...WITH ENOUGH
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION TO PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WHEN
LIFTING FROM 850MB. THIS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...BUT GFS
SOUNDINGS BY 00Z INDICATE NEAR SATURATION IN THE WEST AND NORTH.
WILL MENTION SCT SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A CADILLAC/DRUMMOND
ISLAND. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH UNINTERRUPTED LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CURRENT MODEL TIMING IN THE GFS FAVORS OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY EVENING...THANKS TO THE STRONGEST 850MB
THETA-E ADVECTION EARLY ON...AND AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE SWINGS THRU.
WILL BOOST POPS TO LIKELY IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE
EVENING...WHERE THE FORCING IS STRONGEST. SCT POPS WILL SUFFICE
ELSEWHERE. THE MID LEVELS RAPIDLY DRY BEHIND THE WAVE OVERNIGHT...
BUT GFS SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LAYER AT AND BELOW 850MB VERY MOIST. THUS
SHOWERS WILL END...BUT WITH PRECIP PERHAPS MORPHING TO A DRIZZLE
THREAT IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW...WITH JUST A
SHOWER MENTION THRU THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS VERY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION...WITH MINS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY...COLD FRONT JUST BARELY LAYS OVER ACROSS UPPER MI...BEFORE
GETTING READY TO RAPIDLY HEAD NORTHWARD AGAIN. CONTINUED MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO 900MB OR
BELOW...BUT DOES NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY WIPE IT OUT (THOUGH SOME
DRYING DOES ARRIVE IN THE SW LATE IN THE DAY). THE SHALLOWING MOIST
LAYER WOULD ARGUE AGAINST A CONTINUING DZ THREAT (EXCEPT PERHAPS
EARLY ON)...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WILL BUMP UP CLOUD COVER
A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGING AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY RETURN WARM AND DRY WX TO THE REGION FOR THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER TROF IN
THE WEST WILL CLOSE OFF...AND EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC NOVEMBER ANY-TYPE-OF-WEATHER-
IS-POSSIBLE GALE. WARM WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT GOES
THRU (THURSDAY?)...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND. ECMWF HAS
850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -12C BY SATURDAY...SO IT LOOKS CHILLY AND
PERHAPS SNOWY BY NEXT WEEKEND. ALL THE MORE REASON TO ENJOY THIS ONE.
JZ
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 1134 PM/
UPDATED THE WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT OVER NIGHT AS THE HIGH IS
BUILDING IN A LITTLE FASTER AND THE MODELS AGREE WITH THE TREND IN
THE OBS THAT THE WINDS OVER THE WATER FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB
DIMINISH AND THE INVERSION PREVENTS MUCH MIXING EVEN OVER THE
LAKES. WHILE THE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH, THE WAVES WILL
PROBABLY TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO SUBSIDE. SO HAVE LEFT THE LAKE HURON
SIDE UP FOR THE TIME BEING.
LUTZ
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1134 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NO LOW CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH KEEPS LOW
CLOUDS FROM FORMING. OTHERWISE, ONLY HIGH CLOUDS (FL250) ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.
LUTZ
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ347.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
