Chapter 13.
Employment Projections

Assumptions
BLS makes many underlying assumptions to carry out the projection process. The projections themselves should be considered as likely outcomes in light of the assumptions. First, assumptions are made concerning general economic or social conditions. Recent projections, for instance, have included the following assumptions:

• Work patterns will not change significantly over the projection period; for example, the average workweek will not change markedly;
• broad social and educational trends will continue;
• there will be no major war;
• there will not be a significant change in the size of the Armed Forces; and
• fluctuations in economic activity due to the business cycle will continue to occur.

The assumptions that fall into this first major category have both an overall and a particular effect. For example, the assumption that social trends will continue implies that our society will continue to provide for the education of the young in a way which is broadly similar to current practices. This would be considered the overall effect. The particular effect of this assumption would be to influence the projected level of local government expenditures for education and, consequently, the demand for teachers.

Second, BLS analysts try to identify factors which in the past have exerted a strong influence on the structure of employment. Once such factors have been identified, a judgment is made as to whether those factors will continue to have a similar influence in the future. Conversely, analysts try to identify new or emerging forces which may prove important in future years. Every attempt is made to document these types of assumptions and to indicate how they might influence future employment growth.

During the 1970s and early 1980s, for example, employment of cashiers in retail stores grew at the expense of other sales occupations as these stores centralized their cashier services. This factor, in the judgment of BLS economists, will no longer cause changes in the types of workers retail stores hire because the shift to centralized cashier operations in the stores has been completed.

Finally, BLS economists set ranges of acceptability for variables normally considered as results of the various projection methods, such as the level and rate of growth of real gross national product (GDP), the unemployment rate, the rate of growth of labor productivity, and other key results of the various stages of the projection process. The purpose is to ensure consistent results rather than to impose absolute levels on the various items involved. With these three classes of assumptions in mind, BLS economists then specify three alternative projection scenarios, a low, moderate, and high level of projected economic activity. By offering three scenarios, BLS allows the user of the projections to select that combination of assumptions which best represents the user's own notions of future economic potential.

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