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Tropical Storm KAREN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 155N 505W 34 26 13(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 1(40)
12 155N 505W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
12 155N 505W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 166N 520W 34 2 20(22) 8(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33) 1(34)
24 166N 520W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 166N 520W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 176N 533W 34 X 6( 6) 13(19) 6(25) 3(28) X(28) 1(29)
36 176N 533W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
36 176N 533W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 185N 546W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 5(21) 2(23) 1(24)
48 185N 546W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
48 185N 546W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 200N 565W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 4(18) 1(19)
72 200N 565W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
72 200N 565W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 215N 580W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14)
96 215N 580W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
96 215N 580W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 220N 600W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10)
120 220N 600W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 220N 600W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
NNNN
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