Tropical Storm GABRIELLE

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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007
 
REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT GABRIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT ABOUT 2 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WHICH HAS REFORMED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION UNDERNEATH
THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION OBERSERVED OVERNIGHT.  THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS MESOSCALE VORTEX COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE GABRIELLE MAKES
LANDFALL...IT HAS PERSISTED AND BUILT DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ASSUME THAT THESE TRENDS
COULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE INCREASED TO 55 KT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED
THAT THE INCREASED WINDS EXTEND ONLY A FEW MILES FROM THE CENTER.

A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE 12 HOUR FORECAST
POINT...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1200Z 34.2N  76.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 35.3N  76.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 36.6N  74.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 39.2N  69.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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