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Climate of 2004 Wildfire Season Summary
National Climatic Data Center, Last Updated - 13 December 2004
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PRE-SEASON / MAY / JUNE / JULY / AUGUST / SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER / SEASON SUMMARY
Season Summary
Year-to-Date fire detections across Alaska and the Yukon - 30 November 2004 from MODIS
Year-to-Date fire detections across the Western U.S. - 30 November 2004 from MODIS
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According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), wildland fires in 2004 had consumed over 8 million acres across the U.S. as of early December, which was well above the 10-year average of over 5.5 million acres. By far the majority of this year's fire activity in the U.S. occurred in Alaska, which had over 6.6 million acres consumed across the state this year, making the
2004 fire season the worst on record for Alaska for acreage burned. Extensive fire activity also occurred in the adjacent Yukon territory of Canada, where over 1.8 million hectares (over 4.5 million acres) had burned as of the end of September (as reported by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center-CIFFC). Across the contiguous U.S., the fire season was well-below average with just over 1.4 million acres burned in 2004.
Fire activity dimished significantly during the fall, with only a few large fires reported during November. By the end of November there were no large fires reported to the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC), and only minimal small fire activity was reported across the entire country.
Dead fuel moisture levels improved significantly during November, as a series of fall storms moved across the western U.S. Significant snowfall was measured in the Sierra Nevada, Wasatch and the southern and central Rocky Mountains, bringing
snow pack in the western U.S. to above normal in many locations based on snow water equivalent measurements at snotel sites.
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These Pacific storm systems in late October and November brought well-needed relief to the long-term drought conditions in the Great Basin and southwestern U.S. By early December, the moisture conditions of fine-fuels (i.e. 10-hour fuels) were much improved across the Great Basin and southwestern states. However, moderate to severe drought conditions remained over portions of the Northern Rockies, mainly in Montana and Wyoming, and fine fuel moisture remained very dry across the Front Range region in Colorado, as well as the high plains of Nebraska and Kansas.
Medium to larger fuels (i.e. 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels) had improved significantly across most of the western U.S. in November. The moisture content of 1000-hr fuels were above 15% over a broad region of the West, with parts of Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho exceeding 30%.
By early December, fire danger classification remained high in only a few areas, primarily in northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska.
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Year-to-date (January-early December) wildfire statistics (from NIFC):
As of December 3, 2004 |
Nationwide Number of
Fires |
Nationwide Number of
Acres Burned |
2004
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64,488 |
8,077,514 |
2003 |
63,629 |
3,960,842 |
2002 |
73,457 |
7,184,712 |
Ten-year Average (1995-2004) |
74,485 |
5,531,387 |
Fire Danger Class map from 8 December 2004
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October
Mosaic of active fire detections on 25 October 2004 from MODIS
Burned areas in Alaska and the Yukon as of October 31, 2004 from MODIS
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According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), wildland fires in 2004 have consumed over 8 million acres across the U.S. as of the end of October, which was well above the year-to-date average of over 4.3 million acres. Most of this year's fire activity occurred in Alaska during June and July, and by the end of October over 6.6 million acres were blackened across the state. This made the 2004 fire season the worst on record for Alaska.
Fire activity was generally light across the U.S. in October. The fires that were reported occurred mainly in central California, where the Rumsey fire burned during the middle of the month. Several large fires burned in Virgina as well during the month, as can be seen on NOAA AVHRR imagery from 13 October 2004.
Long-term drought conditions continued across much of the western U.S., although there was some significant drought relief during the month as a series of fall storms moved across the region.
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Dead fuel moisture levels improved during the latter half of the month as moisture from several large Pacific storms brought precipitation to the mountains, with significant snowfall in the Sierra Nevada, Wasatch and the southern and central Rocky Mountains.
By early November, fine-fuels (i.e. 10-hour fuels) remained very dry across the Front Range region in Colorado and New Mexico, with improved conditions across the southwestern states.
Medium to larger fuels (i.e. 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels) had improved significantly across the region in October, with the moisture content of 1000-hr fuels above 15% over a broad region of the West, with large fuels in parts of Nevada, California, Utah, Idaho and New Mexico exceeding 30%.
At the end of October, fire danger remained high in only a few areas, mainly in southern and central New Mexico.
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Year-to-date (January-September) wildfire statistics (from NIFC):
As of October 31, 2004 |
Nationwide Number of
Fires |
Nationwide Number of
Acres Burned |
2004
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63,047 |
8,044,834 |
2003 |
56,036 |
3,511,752 |
2002 |
69,413 |
6,684,556 |
Nine-year Average (1996-2004) |
75,319 |
4,320,285 |
Fire Danger Class map from 31 October 2004
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September
Short- and long-term drought conditions continued across a large portion of the western U.S. in September. The record and near-record dry conditions throughout the West have contributed to extremely low dead fuel moisture levels. As of the end of September, the moisture levels of live fuels remained very dry across the intermountain West and the Great Basin. Medium to larger fuels (i.e. 100-hr and 1000-hr) were extremely dry across the region, with 1000-hr fuels below 5% over western areas of Nevada, far eastern California, southwestern Arizona and a small section in southwestern Oregon.
At the end of September, fire danger remained very high in few places, an area along the California, Arizona boarder and another small area in north-central Washington. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), a widely used index for fire risk, had the largest potential for fire activity in the contiguous U.S. over the majority of California, along the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Also, areas from the southern Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley, as well as along the Gulf of Mexico coast had increased potential for fire development.
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Year-to-date (January-September) wildfire statistics (from NIFC):
As of September 30, 2004 |
Nationwide Number of
Fires |
Nationwide Number of
Acres Burned |
2004
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62,088 |
7,784,277 |
2003 |
50,626 |
3,180,770 |
2002 |
68,397 |
6,715,197 |
10-year Average (1994-2004) |
69,154 |
3,945,507 |
Keetch-Byram Drought Index map from 30 September 2004
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August
Loop of large fire locations in August
MODIS Active Fire Detections in Alaska and the Yukon on August 31, 2004
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According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), wildland fires in 2004 have consumed over 7.3 million acres across the U.S. as of the end of August. The vast majority of the burned areas occurred in Alaska, where over 6.14 million acres had burned by the end of the month, which was a new all-time record for the state. Of these, over 1.7 million acres burned during August.
The most significant of the large fire activity has occurred in central and eastern Alaska (as well as in the adjacent Yukon Territory of Canada), and large burn scars are now visible in satellite imagery across areas to the north and east of Fairbanks. Problems with smoke also continued in August, as particulate matter (PM) emissions from the Alaskan fires spread over a large region of the U.S. and Canadian arctic.
Northern California had several large fires during August, as areas northwest of Redding burned. The largest of these was the French Fire, which burned near Frenchtown and Weaverville, CA during the middle of the month.
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Short- and long-term drought conditions continued across a large portion of the western U.S. in August. The record and near-record dry conditions throughout the West have contributed to extremely low dead fuel moisture levels. As of the end of August, the moisture levels of live fuels remained very dry across the intermountain West and the Great Basin. Medium to larger fuels (i.e. 100-hr and 1000-hr) were extremely dry across the region, with 1000-hr fuels below 5% over most of California, Nevada, Utah, and western Colorado.
At the end of August, the fire danger remained very high across the West, with extreme fire danger across parts of the northern Great Basin. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), a widely used index for fire risk, had the largest potential for fire activity in the contiguous U.S. across northern California, and along the Sierra Nevada Mountains in central California and the western Great Basin. Areas of the southern Plains and along the Gulf of Mexico coast also had increased potential for large fire development.
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Year-to-date (January-August) wildfire statistics (from NIFC):
As of August 31, 2004 |
Nationwide Number of
Fires |
Nationwide Number of
Acres Burned |
2004
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55,044 |
7,381,166 |
2003 |
44,823 |
2,695,156 |
2002 |
62,549 |
6,334,283 |
10-year Average (1994-2004) |
61,229 |
3,193,463 |
Keetch-Byram Drought Index map from 31 August 2004
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July
Both short- and long-term drought conditions have continued to affect a large portion of the western U.S. The record and near-record dry conditions throughout the West have contributed to extremely low dead fuel moisture levels. As of the end of July, fine fuels remained very dry across the intermountain West and the Great Basin, with 10-hr fuel moistures only 1-2% from the High Plains to the Pacific Coast. Medium to larger fuels (i.e. 100-hr and
1000-hr) also continued to be extremely dry across the region, with 1000-hr fuels below 5% over most of California, the Great Basin, and the Columbia Plateau.
At the end of July, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), a widely used index for fire risk, had the largest potential for fire activity in the contiguous U.S. across California and the Pacific Northwest. Areas of the southern Plains also had increased potential for large fire development. In addition, most of the western U.S. had an increased potential for ignitions from lightning, with the Lightning Ignition Efficiency above 30% across a large region from the Cascades to the Rocky Mountains.
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Large Fire Map from 31 July 2004
Year-to-date (January 1 - July 31) wildfire statistics (from NIFC):
As of July 31, 2004 |
Nationwide Number of
Fires |
Nationwide Number of
Acres Burned |
2004
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47,650 |
5,495,416 |
2003 |
36,301 |
1,822,974 |
2002 |
53,070 |
4,258,849 |
10-year Average |
53,111 |
2,343,447 |
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June
Elsewhere, short- and long-term drought conditions have continued to plague a large portion of the western U.S. Dry conditions in the Southwest U.S. have contributed to extremely low dead fuel moisture levels. Fine fuels remained extremely dry across the Southwest and the Great Basin, with 10-hr fuel moistures below 5%.
Medium to larger fuels (i.e. 100-hr and
1000-hr) also continued to be extremely dry across the region, with 1000-hr fuels below 10% over most of the Southwest. At the end of June, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), a widely used index for fire risk, has the largest potential for fire activity in the contiguous U.S. across Florida, with areas of the Southwest and California also having increased potential for ignition and large fire development.
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Year-to-date (January 1 - June 30) wildfire statistics (from NIFC):
As of June 30, 2004 |
Nationwide Number of
Fires |
Nationwide Number of
Acres Burned |
2004
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38,622 |
1,673,557 |
2003 |
27,286 |
767,018 |
2002 |
44,759 |
2,817,641 |
10-year Average |
42,633 |
1,325,564 |
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May
1 km MODIS image of fires in Arizona and New Mexico on 24 May 2004 at 20:45 UTC
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According to the National Interagency Fire Center, fire activity across the U.S. has been slightly below average as of the end of May. The fire season typically begins on May 1st and runs through the end of October. However, the pre-season and early-season are often active, as can be seen in the year-to-date statistics in the table below.
In May, several large fires were ignited by lightning in the Southwest, with the largest of these being the KP fire in Arizona and the Peppin fire in New Mexico. MODIS imagery to the left shows these two large fires on May 24th. NOAA's AVHRR satellite imagery also shows the actively burning areas and smoke plumes from these two fires, which continued to burn into the first part of June. Large fire activity in May also occurred in Southern California, Nevada and parts of Florida.
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Ongoing, long-term drought conditions across a large portion of the western U.S. have increased the potential for large fires again this year. Current soil and fuel conditions have been worsened by short-term moisture deficits as well, with many areas having the potential for extreme fire behavior. Parts of the intermountain West have experienced four to five years of drought, with severe to extreme drought conditions present over the majority of this region.
The dry conditions in the Southwest U.S. have contributed to extremely low Dead Fuel Moisture levels. Fine fuels remained extremely dry across the Southwest and the Four-Corners area, with 10-hr fuel moistures below 5%. Medium to larger fuels (i.e.
100-hr and 1000-hr) also continued to be extremely dry across this area, with 1000-hr fuels below 10% over a broad region of the Southwest. According to the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), a widely used index for fire risk, the potential for large fires remained very high across Florida, with areas of the Southwest also showing increasing potential at the end of May.
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Year-to-date (January 1-May 31) wildfire statistics (from NIFC):
As of May 31, 2004 |
Nationwide Number of
Fires |
Nationwide Number of
Acres Burned |
2004
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32,068 |
531,270 |
2003 |
21,452 |
405,937 |
2002 |
30,817 |
1,115,133 |
10-year Average |
34,940 |
777,356 |
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Pre-Season
Prolonged dryness over the long-term, coupled with severe short-term drought conditions in March, have increased the potential for large fires across the western U.S. The northern Rockies and intermountain West have experienced four to five years of drought, with severe to extreme drought conditions present over the majority of this region. Fine fuels (i.e. 1-hr and 10-hr) are extremely dry across the southwest and four-corners, with 10-hr fuel moistures below 5%. Larger fuels (i.e.
100-hr and 1000-hr) are also anomalously dry across this area, with 1000-hr fuels below 10% in parts of the southwest. Therefore, fire potential indicators are above normal across the majority of the western U.S. at the beginning of the 2004 fire season.
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Year-to-date (January 1-April 30) wildfire statistics (from NIFC):
As of April 30, 2004 |
Nationwide Number of
Fires |
Nationwide Number of
Acres Burned |
2004
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24,573 |
375,934 |
2003 |
15,513 |
328,930 |
2002 |
23,776 |
382,634 |
8-year Average |
28,661 |
616,393 |
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Questions?
For all climate questions other than questions concerning this report, please contact the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Services Division:
Climate Services Division NOAA/National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801-5001 fax: 828-271-4876 phone: 828-271-4800 email: questions@ncdc.noaa.gov
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For further information on the historical climate perspective presented in this report, contact:
David Levinson NOAA/National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801-5001 fax: 828-271-4328 email: David.Levinson@noaa.gov
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Richard Heim NOAA/National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801-5001 fax: 828-271-4328 email: Richard.Heim@noaa.gov
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