Hurricane FLORENCE

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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
 
FLORENCE IS QUICKLY BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE ONLY CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER IS A BAND 
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER.  THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS 
AND AN EXPERIMENTAL SURFACE ADJUSTED CLOUD DRIFT WIND PRODUCT
FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND. 
THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN DAY OR SO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/17. FLORENCE HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED EASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE
AREA A LITTLE SOONER THAN SHOWN.  

LARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING ROUGH
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS.  THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS
SHOWN IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY DOES NOT FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THIS HUGE
AREA OF HIGH WAVES INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLORENCE.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 39.3N  59.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 41.8N  56.3W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 45.0N  52.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 47.2N  46.4W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 48.0N  40.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 49.5N  24.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
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FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
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