Hurricane FLORENCE

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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006
 
LATEST SATELLITE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLORENCE HAS
STRENGTHENED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SURVEYED FLORENCE AND MEASURED AN 84 KT
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0536Z.  THIS
WIND EQUATES TO APPROXIMATELY 67 KT AT THE SURFACE.  AT THAT TIME
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 981 MB.  ON THE NEXT PASS...THE EYE SONDE
MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 978 MB WITH 18 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 976 MB.  OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN ABOUT 17 MB.  FLORENCE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.  BY 72 HOURS...
FLORENCE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE WESTERLIES. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/13.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED.  FLORENCE IS NOW NEARING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER
TODAY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...
UKMET...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 27.7N  65.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 29.0N  65.9W    80 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 31.0N  66.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 33.5N  65.0W    90 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 36.4N  63.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 42.5N  56.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 47.0N  49.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     15/0600Z 50.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
 
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