Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Get Storm Info
   Satellite | Radar
   Aircraft Recon
   Advisory Archive
   Experimental
   Mobile Products
   E-mail Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   GIS Data | RSS XML/RSS logo
   Help with Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic and E Pacific
   Forecast and
   Analysis Tools

   Help with Marine
Hurricane Awareness
   Be Prepared | Learn
   Frequent Questions
   AOML Research
   Hurricane Hunters
   Saffir-Simpson Scale
   Forecasting Models
   Eyewall Wind Profiles
   Glossary/Acronyms
   Storm Names
   Breakpoints
Hurricane History
   Seasons Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
   Climatology
   Most Extreme
About the NHC
   Mission and Vision
   Personnel | Visitors
   NHC Virtual Tour
   Library
   Joint Hurr Testbed
   The NCEP Centers
Contact UsHelp
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006
 
WHILE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY LARGE...FINDING
THE EXACT CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT.  AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM
THE 2105 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER REMAINS
BROAD AND ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  THE CENTER THAT WE
HAVE BEEN TRACKING APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN 
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS VERY
STRONG...THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE BANDING FEATURES.  DUE TO THE
CENTER LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 30 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. 
THEREFORE....THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE 
TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE WHICH EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND BEGIN
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
EASTWARD...CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FLORENCE HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO 
CUT-OFF AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...MUCH LIKE THE EVOLUTION
PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW STRENGTHENING 
AND INDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2
DAYS.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
USING GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS...WHICH DEPICT A
RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION.  THESE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SKILL IN
FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTER WIND FIELDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 17.7N  49.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.3N  51.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N  53.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.3N  55.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.3N  57.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N  62.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 25.5N  66.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 28.5N  69.0W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
NHC Active Storms  -  Atlantic and E Pacific Marine  -  Storm Archives
Hurricane Awareness  -  How to Prepare  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 GMT