Tropical Storm CHRIS

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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006
 
CHRIS APPEARS TO HAVE GRADUALLY GAINED ORGANIZATION TONIGHT.  THE
SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES LEADING UP TO 00Z BOUNCED AROUND QUITE A
BIT...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT SURE IF THAT WAS DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE
CENTER...SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER...OR SOME
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS.  IN ANY EVENT...DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE MEAN
CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM EARLIER TONIGHT WHEN
THE CONVECTION WAS CONFINED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE
STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATION...SINCE THE PEAK VALUE
OF 64 KT AT 2042Z...HAS BEEN 59 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT ABOUT
2235Z.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z WAS
STILL 1003 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  THIS
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

SMOOTHING THROUGH THE SCATTERED AIRCRAFT FIXES STILL YIELDS AN
ESTIMATED FORWARD MOTION OF 295/9.  IN THE BIG PICTURE...THERE
SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF CHRIS CONTINUES ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER... THE
DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CHRIS.  FOR ONE... IF CHRIS
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE... THE STORM COULD WEAKEN OVER HISPANIOLA AND/OR
CUBA.  IF ON THE OTHER HAND CHRIS REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CHRIS TO REACH AND PERHAPS MAINTAIN HURRICANE
INTENSITY.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH WOULD TAKE CHRIS BENEATH
A NARROW EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LESSEN THE
EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WOULD BE FELT FARTHER NORTH.  IF
CHRIS WERE TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN SHOWN BELOW...THE
SHEAR WOULD BE STRONGER AND LESS SUPPORTIVE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT FORECASTS A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL SINCE THAT MODEL WEAKENS
CHRIS OVER LAND.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 18.3N  61.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.9N  63.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N  65.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.1N  67.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.6N  69.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 21.5N  73.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 22.5N  77.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 23.5N  81.5W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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