Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000 FXUS65 KBOU 282024 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 230 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2008 .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE PICTURES ACTUALLY SHOW A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF PARK AND CLEAR CREEK COUNTIES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS ARE A GOOD 10 TO 15 F ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS DAY. PROFILERS SHOW WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE THIRD PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES A BIT AND BECOMES ZONAL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION PROGGED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS PRETTY WEAK WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE...WITH JUST A BIT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2.5 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S READINGS. .LONG TERM...ONCE AGAIN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TODAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING ONLY A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AND A WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS... ROTATING THROUGH NORTH ON THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT LOW LEVEL COOLING THURSDAY MORNING BUT WARMING ALOFT MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ALREADY BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER ON FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD. AGAIN A GOOD DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE HEATING/COOLING IN BALANCE...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE FRIDAY. AS MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND THERE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WARMING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. I DID RAISE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BROUGHT A LEAD SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS OTHER MODELS ARE AT LEAST A DAY SLOWER HOWEVER...AND WITH WARM DRY AIR IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH I HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED LOW MOUNTAINS POPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLING...AND THAT COULD BE QUESTIONABLE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ RJK/GIMMESTAD
