Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000 FXUS65 KBOU 290941 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 340 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2008 .SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME Q-G ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AS WELL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS IN STORE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER 3-5F DEGREES WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT...WITH CROSS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE WHERE DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED. .LONG TERM...STILL NOT MUCH WEATHER TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS. UNSEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL PROBABLY BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...BASED ON THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE WEATHER PICTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS THE GFS SHOWS A 100+ KNOT JET MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND COLORADO COMING UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MONDAY MORNING. PARTS OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS MAY GET A DECENT SHOT OF SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE SIZE AND ORIENTATION OF THE BROAD TROUGH...INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO MAY BE THE MAIN BENEFACTORS. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE TRANSITION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. FOR NOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND 10-20 PERCENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE SUFFICIENT. IN THE MEANTIME...GET OUT AND ENJOY THE INDIAN SUMMER IF YOU CAN. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ BARJENBRUCH/KDRBY
