National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification
Updated 21 May 2008
Contents
- Introduction
- Forecast verification procedures
- Annual NHC verification reports
- Official five-year mean errors and distributions
- Official error trends
- Model error trends
- NHC official forecast error database
- Performance measures and goals
- References
5. Official error trends
This section contains information on NHC forecast errors over the years.
The verifications below are based on the NHC best track database as of 29 January 2008, and, except as noted, follow
the verification procedures given in Section 2.
All verifications in this section include subtropical systems, and are homogeneous with the best track
CLIPER5 and Decay-SHIFOR5 models. Because forecasts for non-developing depressions are not available in digital
form prior to 1989, verifications that include years before 1989 are given for tropical storms and hurricanes only.
Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms and Hurricanes: Track Errors (1970 - 2007)
 Annual average official track errors
for Atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes for the period 1970-2007, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.
 Official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes by decade.
Annual
average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes for the period 1970-2007.(pdf)
Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Track Errors (1989 - 2007)
Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1989-2007, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period
1989-2007. (pdf)
Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Intensity Errors (1990 - 2007)
 Annual average official intensity errors for
Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2007, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Annual average official intensity
errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2007. (pdf)
Eastern North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones: Track Errors (1989 - 2007)
 Annual average official track errors
for eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1989-2007, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Annual average official track
errors for eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1989-2007. (pdf)
Eastern North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones: Intensity Errors (1990 - 2007)
 Annual average official intensity errors for eastern
North Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2007, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Annual average official intensity errors for eastern North
Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2007.(pdf)
Next: Model error trends
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Annual average official track errors
for Atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes for the period 1970-2007, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes by decade.
Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1989-2007, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Annual average official intensity errors for
Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2007, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Annual average official track errors
for eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1989-2007, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Annual average official intensity errors for eastern
North Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2007, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.