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MMS ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: ONGOING STUDIES |
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MMS OCS Region: |
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Title: |
Forecasting Service Vessel and Helicopter Trips Related to OCS Development (GM-92-42-134) |
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Planning Area: |
Gulfwide |
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Total Cost: $288,323 |
Period of Performance: FY 2008-2009 |
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Conducting Organization: |
Coastal Marine Institute,
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MMS Contact: |
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Description: Background: The oceans present a unique set of environmental
conditions and adverse exposure which affects the methods, equipment, support,
and procedures employed in offshore design, construction, and operational activity.
Offshore activities often take place at
substantial distances from shore and from other structures, at depths which require
special equipment and procedures, and operations with rotating crews and a near
continuous supply of materials. The offshore
service industry provides transportation services to the oil and gas industry.
These services involve moving personnel
to, from, and between offshore installations and rigs; delivering drilling supplies,
equipment, fuel, water, and food; towing rigs and placing and retrieving rig anchors;
and supporting offshore construction projects. A wide variety of marine vessels
and helicopters comprise the offshore service industry, and the service market
is characterized by its cyclic nature – dependent upon oil and gas prices and
business cycles in the upstream sector – high levels of competition, fragmented
markets, and highly leveraged businesses. Throughout the world wherever oil and gas is
discovered, an offshore support industry will develop and evolve with the needs
of industry and government regulation. The demand for helicopter and support
vessels in the GOM depends on the level of activity and amount of spending by
oil and gas companies, where and how capital is allocated (e.g., shallow vs. deepwater,
Service vessel utilization rates
tend to be seasonally dependent, with higher levels of utilization in the warm
temperature months. Flight hours are also
seasonal and are influenced by and depend on the number of available daylight
hours and occurrence of extreme weather events. Boat owners charge a dayrate for the use of their vessel, while transportation
contracts for helicopters and crewboats are typically
awarded for a term or one year or longer. Anchor handling towing and supply (AHTS) vessels
tend to command the highest dayrates in the GOM, followed
by platform supply vessels (PSVs) and crewboats. Construction
vessels command a premium similar to jackup units. AHTS vessels are closely correlated to drilling
activity, and tend to have more volatile utilization rates than vessels such as
crewboats. Boats and helicopters are a commodity item and owners compete primarily on price, although safety, reliability, availability, and service are also important. Dayrates depend on factors such as the type and age of the boat, contract length (spot vs. long term), market conditions, and region of operation. When demand for services outstrips supply, rates increase first in the spot market and then when long-term rates are negotiated. Spot rates are more volatile than long-term contracts, and are also more sensitive to supply/demand imbalances. |
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Objectives: ·
to
expand and update the current MMS descriptions related to service vessel and helicopter
trips and to develop methodologies and usable equations to forecast the trips
required to support a given level of oil and gas activity as represented by MMS
exploration and development (E&D) scenarios; and ·
to describe more precisely the level of diversity and the magnitude
of offshore activity in the GOM of the operational requirements associated with
various activity classes. |
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Methods: 1.
Provide
a general description of the types of offshore service vessels employed in the
2. Categorize offshore activities and describe the general service and supply requirements for each category, including the factors that impact the number of service vessel trips and the uncertainty associated with quantification. 3. Develop a method to forecast the total number of service vessel and helicopter trips over a 40-year period using a set of relevant activity variables from the MMS E&D scenarios broken out by planning area, and if feasible, stage of development, water depth, type of service vessel, or other relevant data categories. 4. Discuss the limitations of the model assumptions, and the possible implications they may have on the forecasts and methodologies. 5. Review operator plans from the MMS on estimated service vessel and helicopter trips and compare with the model assumptions and methodologies. |
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Products: Forecast model and final report. |
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Importance to MMS: Offshore service vessel and helicopter trips in the OCS are important components in the MMS EIS since they directly impact port activity and comprise a significant portion of the offshore labor market. The MMS requires a defensible method to forecast service vessel and helicopter trips for application in future EIS reports. |
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Current Status: Study started December 2007 |
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Final Report Due: |
November 2009 |
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Publications: |
None |
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Affiliated WWW Sites: |
None |
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Revised date: |
March 2008 |
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ESPIS |
ESPIS
- All completed ESP Studies: |
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