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Tropical Storm ERIN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GALVESTON TX 34 14 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
HOUSTON TX 34 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
AUSTIN TX 34 2 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 2 12(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
FREEPORT TX 34 21 12(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 56 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 30 25(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
PORT O CONNOR 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 12 29(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 50 13(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 5 4( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 272N 958W 34 58 12(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
12 272N 958W 50 6 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
12 272N 958W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 280N 975W 34 12 31(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
24 280N 975W 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
24 280N 975W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 290N 990W 34 1 12(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
36 290N 990W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 290N 990W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
48 300N 1005W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
48 300N 1005W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 300N 1005W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45 40 20 20 0 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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