Tropical Depression FIVE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007
 
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DID FIND A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER...BUT IT WAS NOT QUITE WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO WARRANT A
FORMAL VORTEX MESSAGE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
SOME EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS
TREND...I AM PRESUMING THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...I EXPECT
SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST.
 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENT SHEARING PATTERN
WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE
WAY.  THE BROAD CIRCULATION...LIMITED CONVECTION...AND LIMITED
UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH ARGUE FOR ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 23.9N  91.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 24.8N  92.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 25.9N  94.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 27.0N  96.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 27.8N  98.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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