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Tropical Depression ERNESTO
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 9( 9) 17(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 18(18) 20(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 31(31) 10(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X 19(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
JACKSONVILLE 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 14 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
ORLANDO FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 29 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
FT PIERCE FL 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 295N 804W 34 30 13(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
12 295N 804W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 295N 804W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 324N 797W 34 X 40(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
24 324N 797W 50 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
24 324N 797W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 350N 790W 34 X 5( 5) 20(25) 3(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29)
36 350N 790W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
36 350N 790W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 375N 785W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17)
48 375N 785W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 375N 785W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 435N 800W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
72 435N 800W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 435N 800W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 45 30 25 25 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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