Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2006
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS
AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A HURRICANE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  75.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  75.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  75.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N  76.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.9N  78.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N  80.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.6N  80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 31.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.0N  77.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N  75.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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