Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  71.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  71.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  71.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.8N  73.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N  75.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N  77.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.8N  79.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N  83.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.5N  86.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 28.0N  87.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  71.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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