Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI.  ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  67.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  67.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  67.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N  69.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N  72.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N  74.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  25SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N  77.2W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N  82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 23.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N  88.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  67.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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