Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST NEAR PLAYA
CAZONAL...JUST WEST OF GUANTANAMO...AROUND 1200 UTC.  THE CENTER IS
NOW MOVING OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THERE IS MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.  SOME MORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.  ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES OVER
WATER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GFDL FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY.

SINCE THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/9.  A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO MAY BE IMPARTING SOME NORTHWARD
COMPONENT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOTION.  DYNAMICAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN OF
ERNESTO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 20.3N  75.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.5N  76.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 22.9N  78.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 24.6N  80.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 26.6N  80.4W    70 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 31.0N  80.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 34.0N  77.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 36.0N  75.0W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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